May 2026 – Under The Hammers

Sifting Through The Wreckage Of West Ham’s Relegation: What Happens Next?

The pride, vanity, stupidity and arrogance of David Sullivan’s leadership was an accident waiting to happen. Now we must rely on the same fools to sort it out again.

The long and painful slow motion car crash which heralded West Ham’s inevitable relegation finally reached its climax at the weekend. A late show of industry but no last minute dramatic escape. Now they are over the edge how far will they fall? A safe landing? Or crashing and burning into the abyss below?

Media coverage of West Ham’s plight has seen assorted journos belatedly understand what fans have known for years. That the fault of the Hammer’s demise lies fairly and squarely in the boardroom. A club run for the self-aggrandisement and vanity of incompetent owners who had always considered themselves as benevolent saviours. Forget the broken promises and the ten-point pledges that were not worth the paper they were written. It was only ever about their own egos – amateur interference and arrogant meddling in a sport that ought to be run by professionals.

Perhaps you could get away with running a club as a hobby in the past when promoted clubs regularly struggled to make the step up to the Premier League. But that has all changed. The game has changed. Data analytics, extensive scouting netwroks, player trading strategies, organisation, planning and a reliance on pace and athleticism on the pitch have been universally embraced – except at West Ham who have plodded along from one short-sighted season to the next.

Post relegation media reports have also homed in on the Hammer’s decline since the 2023 European Conference success, but the rot had set in well before then. Instead, the high-water mark was the surprise sixth-place finish in 2020/21, and it was the failure to refresh and build on that success which started the fire. The departure of Declan Rice and wasting the proceeds on a string of erratic recruits was the accelerant.

West Ham are now on their fourth manager in a little over three years. I was expecting it to be five, but it seems the Czech Sphinx has pulled rank to provide Nuno with a stay of execution. Nuno’s haul of 36 points from 33 games is hardly impressive while strange selections and tactics, multiple points lost from winning positions, and puzzling game management strategies have frequently left us scratching our heads. Still, compared to the other names being bandied about (Parker, Bilic, Dyche) sticking with the devil you know might not be such a bad idea. Only time will tell.

It has not been sacking managers that is the root of the club’s problem but making poor hiring decisions in the first place. The sole criteria for appointment being out of work and available. In the absence of any footballing expertise or competent direction from the boardroom this approach has proven a recipe for chaos. A squad assembled by a succession of drive-by managers, a lame-duck technical director and a meddling know-it-all Chairman. Who could have thought such lack of cohesion and continuity would end in disaster?

Now we are being led to believe the same fools who got us into this mess are the ones capable of getting us out of it again. If the player exodus is anywhere near as extensive as predicted, how on earth does a club with such an abysmal transfer record put together a squad capable of promotion over the long and arduous season ahead.

Understandably, a lot of focus in the wake of relegation has turned to the fragile state of West Ham’s finances. But we should remember that there are two separate views of finance in football. The club’s ability to comply with prevailing league rules such as PSR and SCR is one. The club’s debt and cash flow position is the other. A cynic might say that club owners conveniently conflate the two as a means of hoodwinking fans.

It will come as no surprise that the West Ham board have made a right pig’s ear of both. When it comes to cash flow, the club has extensive transfer debt, expensive financial debt and has factored future transfers receivable at a discount to pay yesterday’s bills. Attempting to address these through revenues and transfers looks like a distressing prospect. The hope is that the owners will break the habit of a lifetime and inject further capital to stabilise the debt burden.

West Ham’s financial year closes on 31 May and plans must now be put in place to comply with the Championship’s 85% Squad Cost Ratio rules based on much reduced revenues for the coming year. My rough back of a beer mat calculations predicts a loss of around £60 million in the current year on revenues of £225 million plus a raft of transfers out. This should be well within the retiring PSR limits thanks largely to the continuing impact of the Rice sale in 2023.

For 2026/27 revenues will probably fall to around £125 million. Squad costs (salaries and player amortisation) are currently circa £245 million but may reduce by £50 or £60 millions depending on how widespread relegation clauses are applied in existing contracts. But this still exceeds SCR limits and player sales are going to be necessary. This is where things become interesting as individual sales have varying impacts in three separate areas: a saving in wages, a reduction in amortisation, and profit or loss on player trading depending on whether a player is sold above or below book value. Profits from player trading are added to revenues for the purposes of SCR. Claims that West Ham must make £150 million in player sales might be valid as a cash flow mitigation but for SCR no two transfers are alike.

As the following table illustrates, this produces many possible permutations. For example, selling Bowen for £50 million would generate a significant wage saving, have little or no amortisation impact but the whole fee can be booked as player trading profit. In contrast, selling Fernandes for £50 million provides a lower wage savings, a significant amortisation reduction, but only £20 million of player sale profit.

At the other end of the scale, it might prove impossible to offload players such as Kilman and Fullkrug without taking an unwanted hit on player sales. I don’t see anyway it makes sense to cancel player contracts early.

The Championship moving from PSR to SCR does seem to offer a glimmer of hope. But that still requires the owners to do the decent thing and inject much needed capital into the club. The club also need to hold their nerve and not sell players on the cheap just to get funds through the door. We will watch this space. COYI!

Two Games to Go: West Ham’s Survival Equation

With only two matches remaining, West Ham’s Premier League survival bid has reached its simplest and most uncomfortable form. There are no longer scenarios to project deep into the future, no room for recalibration, and no benefit in revisiting earlier turning points. What matters now is what can still be done, and whether this squad is capable of doing it.

At this stage of the season, survival ceases to be about long‑term trends and becomes a test of short‑term execution. Form over months counts for little. Tactics, mentality, and decision‑making under pressure count for everything. West Ham’s position reflects a season defined by inconsistency, fragility, and missed opportunities, but it does not yet render survival impossible.

The case for West Ham staying up rests on moments rather than momentum. We are not a team carrying a sustained run of results into the final fortnight, but neither are we a team that is completely detached from the fight. On the whole the performances in 2026 have been good enough for a reasonable league position but we were perhaps too far behind to realistically stay up with any comfort or perhaps stay up at all. At times performances have fluctuated (Brentford), but certainly in the last four months we have not collapsed entirely. That distinction matters. Teams that go down early often look beaten well before mathematics confirm it. West Ham, for all our faults, are still competing to the end.

Whether that proves enough depends partly on what we do, but also what Tottenham do. With two games to go, the deficit is two points. Added to that we have an inferior goal difference. If Tottenham win both of their games we are down, if they win one and draw one we are down. Both scenarios mean that we are relegated whatever we do. If Tottenham win one and lose one we need to win both of our games to survive. If they draw both of them we still need to win twice to remain a Premier League side. Even if they draw one and lose the other we still need a win and a draw. And if they lose twice we still need to win one of our remaining two games. Basically we have to collect three more points than them to stay up. We cannot shape events entirely on our own terms.

It’s FA Cup Final weekend. We’ve got two of them! Of the two contenders for the third relegation spot we play first at the strange time of 5.30 on Sunday evening. And despite Newcastle’s indifferent season this is not the easiest of games. If, and it’s a big if, we can somehow pull off a win in the North-East then we could perhaps have a psychological edge. We would climb out of the bottom three at least until Tottenham go to West London to face a Chelsea team who have been poor for the latter part of the season. Chelsea, who at one time were destined to challenge for a Champions League place, now sit ninth in the table and have collected just one point in their last seven games, the worst record in the whole division, and they have only scored two goals in those games. If only they had faced Chelsea earlier in the season when they were playing well! We can only hope that a London Derby with no love lost between them can inspire the West Londoners.

So it hardly looks promising, does it? The only scenario where we go into the final game with it in our own hands is a West Ham win in the North-East and a Tottenham defeat in West London. We would both then face home fixtures; we entertain Leeds while Tottenham face Everton. I’d rather have our fixture than theirs, but both games would be tense and nervy if relegation is still undecided by then.

Home fixtures take on a different character at this point. Crowd involvement can distort expectation, and force matches into uncomfortable territories. The London Stadium has seen this dynamic work both for and against West Ham in recent seasons. But ask me now and I’d take this position without hesitation. In fact, I’d take going into the last game with something still to play for even if we weren’t in the driving seat. To have taken it this far seemed unlikely if we think back to January when we were seven points adrift.

Ultimately, West Ham’s chances of staying up are very narrow. Defeat in Newcastle would leave Tottenham needing just a point from their final two games. That must be avoided at all costs if we are to have any hope. But for the moment another Great Escape is still a possibility, however remote, and that’s all we can cling to. If we fail, the postmortem can begin.

One Nil To The VARsenal: Two Tier Refereeing May Finally Have Relegated West Ham

A spirited Hammer’s performance is to no avail as a zombie strike and the dark arts of Arsenal and VAR strip them of a point in the dying minutes of Sunday’s London Stadium clash

Football was once such a simple game. It was simplicity that defined its beauty and popularity. Sure, the laws of the game have always been a matter of subjective interpretation, but refereeing gaffes were mostly forgotten by the time it took to reach the platform at Upton Park station. Then came the big money, the detailed media scrutiny, the game’s tactical and physical overload, the PGMOL and its cadre of celebrity refs. What a mighty mess it has become.

As a supporter holding varying opinions are part of the game’s appeal. If you think Tomas Soucek is the beating heart of West Ham and I think he is a liability most of the time, it really makes no odds. But when it comes to officiating erratic variation is unacceptable. We need consistency and fairness without fear nor favour. Infringements to treated equally no matter where on the pitch they occur. We shouldn’t need to worry about elapsed time when one player is holding another’s shirt, all shirt pulling should be penalised. If it was, it would soon stop. As would grappling at corners. As would players cheating by diving in the area. Or players getting away with constantly complaining to the referee provided they wave no imaginary cards.

Threats to clamp down on cheating have a long history but other than sending off Manuel Lanzini, nothing has ever come of it. Any coincidence that it is the ‘elite’ clubs who are most enamoured with the game’s dark arts? Do they have a Dark Arts coach?

If a spy had been sent along the Arsenal training ground, I’m certain they would have returned with tales of Arteta holding diving and squealing drills. Everyone knows they do it, yet a supposedly experienced referee in Chris Kavanagh bought the con all afternoon – like a gullible toddler falling for a three-card trick. But such naivety collapsed into insignificance compared to the added time VAR imbroglio that would sour the outcome.

I predicted in last week’s article that Nuno would resort to three centre backs for this game and that is exactly what happened. Jean-Clair Todibo coming in and Pablo dropping to the bench. Aaron Wan-Bissaka was also favoured over Kyle Walker-Peters.

The Hammers started cautiously and showed little enterprise in the opening exchanges. But following a flurry of early scares and scrambles, they settled down to contain Arsenal relatively comfortably. For a team leading the table the Gunners had little invention until Odegaard was introduced. Set pieces being the greatest danger to the West Ham goal. Arteta’s weird decision to react to White’s injury by moving Rice to full back offered the Hammer’s encouragement, and the half ended with a long range Taty header well saved by Raya.

For once, Nuno’s men were quick to shake off their half-time slumbers and managed to stifle what attacking threat the visitors could muster – mainly Saka shooting over the bar. The game’s first major turning point came in the 78^th minute when Mateus Fernandes wriggled clear in the six-yard box and rather than aim for the wide-open spaces at the goal’s far corner shot tamely against the keeper’s legs. An xG of 110% if I’ve ever seen one!

Five minutes later and Arsenal were one up. There is very little to admire when watching Arteta’s Arsenal – unless ruthless, underhand efficiency is your entertainment of choice. And high on the list of unlikeables is Leandro Trossard, a player who would be at home as an extra on the Walking Dead – there must be some zombie genes in there somewhere. True to form though, having spent the entire afternoon griping and bellyaching to all and sundry he pops up with the decisive goal.

But the games true drama was yet to come. Nuno’s last throw of the dice was the belated arrival of supersub Callum Wilson. Immediately, he was presented with a good shooting opportunity, blocked on the line. Then moments later he fired home what should have been a vital equaliser. The stadium erupted. A fiesta of joyous screaming, yelling, shouting, jumping and dancing. It may not have been enough to save the season, but it was just reward for the spirit and attitude demonstrated by the players.

But the cancer of VAR had other ideas. Let’s face it, once the check started we all knew the outcome would be inevitble. Clear and obvious be blowed. This was a decision of expedience. What conclusion would generate the minimum fallout. Darren England took and age, umming and ahhing before evading all responsibility with a hospital pass back to the referee. Kavanagh stood in a trance watching the same clip 17 times before reaching his self-interest conclusion. After review, I have decided which side my bread is buttered and find for the prosecution.

All season, there have been complaints about the grappling and wrestling at corners pioneered by Arsenal. It has been the source of many goals for them, and they may well hold a patent on it. As the corner came in there were bodies flying and colliding everywhere. Rice was manhandling Mavropanos, Trossard had his arms around Pablo, yet Pablo’s coming together with Raya was the only incident deemed worthy of review. Why no penalty check?

We know from experience that if you watch the same clip over and over again, from different angles, and in slow motion, it will start to look dodgy. The reason so many pundits were convinced of Paqueta’s guilt in the Betway betting fiasco.

Again, the inconsistency of VAR was to the fore. A review that took so long to complete could not be classed as clear and obvious. And what of proximate cause? Had Trossard not been grappling Pablo, would his arm have gone anywhere near the advancing keeper?

Pablo must have dreamed of finally making such a decisive impact on a game – but not like this. As an aside, I’ve only recently discovered Pablo is the son of Brazilian footballer, Pena, a former teammate of Nuno at Porto. His signing, a modern-day equivalent of Moyes buying Jordan Hugill from his cash strapped Preston North End mates.

Who cannot see that the micro analysis of VAR has been terrible for fans and the spontaneity of the game? It’s concerning itself with incidents that were never an issue before its introduction. The only beneficiaries are the broadcasters given privileged access to the conversations that take place. Granting them talking points to liven up the underwhelming product that Premier League football often is. One further action interlude alongside scanning for celebrities in the crowd and endless action replays while the on-field action continues.

It quite amazing that the clubs were given the option to abandon VAR in the summer but decided (apart from Wolves) to vote against it.

The Hammer’s plight looks beyond desperate now – although that could change if Leeds do the decent thing and beat Tottenham tonight. As for the title, I would love it, love it, if Arsenal bottled it in the last two games – and then get thrashed in the Champions League final. COYI!

The trapdoor is open: West Ham’s Three Game Fight To Stay Up

One point behind Spurs, two realistically when you look at the goal difference, a brutal run-in, and no margin for error

Three matches rarely feel like a season, but that is exactly what West Ham are facing as the 2025–26 Premier League campaign enters its closing stretch. With two clubs already down and one final trapdoor still open, the Hammers’ run-in is less about style points and more about survival; we must turn the London Stadium into a pressure cooker, find points in all three games probably, and hope the margins fall our way.

The Premier League table explains the anxiety. After 35 games, West Ham sit 18th on 36 points with a goal difference of -19, one point behind Tottenham Hotspur in 17th on 37 points (Spurs’ goal difference is -9). Burnley (20 points) and Wolves (18 points) have already been relegated, leaving one remaining relegation place that now looks like a straight shootout between the Hammers and Spurs. Mathematically Forest and Palace are still involved but let’s be realistic; they are safe.

In practical terms, West Ham’s fate is no longer in our own hands. Being a point adrift means simply “matching” Tottenham’s results won’t be enough; West Ham need to outscore Spurs by at least a point over the final three fixtures. And if the clubs finish level on points, goal difference becomes pivotal. With Spurs ten goals better off, we cannot assume being level on points will save us unless we can dramatically swing the numbers in three games, a very unlikely and probably virtually impossible task at this stage.

That’s why the fixture list matters as much as the points. West Ham’s final three are brutally defined; Arsenal at home, Newcastle away, and Leeds at home. Tottenham’s closing schedule is Leeds at home, Chelsea away, and Everton at home. Both of us have two home games but on paper, (was it Brian Clough who once said games are played on grass not paper?) Spurs have the gentler run-in, while West Ham must find a way to take something from the league leaders and a recently resurgent Newcastle before a finale that could become a do-or-die game. I hope we still have a chance to escape when the final game comes around but it might be all over by then.

First comes Arsenal, top of the league and still with their own title business to finish. That cuts both ways for West Ham. Arsenal’s quality raises the difficulty level, but the stakes can also tighten a contender’s legs, especially in a hostile away environment. For the Hammers, the aim does not have to be perfect football; it has to be a plan that keeps the game alive, stay compact, manage the first 20 minutes, and give the fans a reason to believe that a point (or more) is possible. A defeat coupled with a Tottenham win over Leeds could almost be curtains for us. The deficit would then be four points, which with the goal difference taken into account would require winning the last two games and hoping Tottenham don’t manage more than one point from their last two.

If we still have a chance of survival when we reach the final game then that closing match at home to Leeds with a home crowd, familiar surroundings, and an opponent with less to play for could still be interesting. But final-day games are notorious for ignoring logic. If survival comes down to 90 minutes, West Ham will want to arrive with as much control over the narrative as possible, and I can’t see that happening under any circumstances. It would be a miracle to arrive here with it in our own hands. At best we would be relying on David Moyes’ Everton to lend a hand.

The reality is that unless we can pick up an improbable four points against Arsenal and Newcastle, which is what I expect Tottenham to get against Leeds and Chelsea then the final game of the season may well be our final game in the Premier League for at least a season and sadly, potentially longer.

Predictive models underline the scale of the task. Opta’s supercomputer has placed West Ham as the likeliest, projecting relegation in roughly three-quarters of its simulations. Deep Block, the Under the Hammers supercomputer, which has been bullish for the last nine games, is more pessimistic now and projects the drop at 93% likely at this stage of the season.

So what does survival likely require? Seven unlikely points might do it. That may not be enough though. Even three wins might not be enough but it probably would be and it would certainly make life interesting! Our chances are very slim but not mathematically hopeless. Not yet anyway. The survival path still exists, the margins are clear, and the incentive could not be sharper. The question is whether we can produce three defining performances before the season runs out of road. If I’m honest I don’t really think we are good enough. You reap what you sow. And sadly the seeds we’ve sown in recent times have produced the harvest that we deserve.

They Think It’s All Over: The Impending West Ham Apocalypse Looks Increasingly Certain

A double whammy of West Ham surrender and Tottenham victory leaves the Hammers on the precipice of relegation. What we see in the abyss is not a pretty sight.

The weekend results couldn’t really have gone any worse. We are left floundering like the hapless guest in the election special studio. The votes have been cast, the exit polls announced, your party has almost certainly lost but you are obliged to put on the bravest possible despite the inevitable outcome. Desperate soundbites about fighting on, giving it our best, still having hope. So many tears I’ve cried, so much pain inside, but it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

Some weeks ago, I had suggested that if West Ham were going to earn survival under their own steam, then the visits to Palace and Brentford would be critical games. Three or more points from those two matches should be the minimum return. The alternative was a reliance that our relegation rivals would perform even worse. Once the Palace game fizzled out into a lacklustre draw, Saturday’s trip to the Gtech Stadium took on even greater importance.

Not unexpectedly, Nuno named an unchanged side for the game. Why not? It had served him well enough in recent weeks even though quantifying its magic ingredient had been impossible to articulate. Had it just been a long run of good luck that had seen us rocket up the form table? In truth, we’d hardly taken any game by the scruff of the neck. And playing two consecutive halves of dominant front foot football in any fixture had proven equally elusive.

The Hammers looked nervy from the off. More mis-controls and misplaced passes than usual before finally settling down to a semblance of normality. An early opportunity for the Bees, an even better one for Pablo, before Brentford capitalised on indecisive defending at the far post to open the scoring.

The set-back prompted West Ham’s best spell of the game. Almost immediately, Taty hit the post, fluffed a good headed opportunity and later struck the post once again. There was a hearty cheer when Dinos headed powerfully home from a Diouf free-kick, but it was not to VAR’s liking. One ear and part of a shoulder were deemed to be offside at the point the lines were drawn. It is ridiculous that VAR looks at anything other than the position of the feet when drawing those offside lines.

There is an argument that with a little luck we could have been leading at the break. But that ignores the Damsgaard miss that followed the comical heading attempt by Hermansen, and the surprisingly weak finish by Thiago when put through on goal.

Any ideas of a storming comeback would be dashed early in the second half. Once again, the Hammers had left their resolve back in the dressing room and when Diouf’s stupid going to ground tackle gifted the Bees a penalty, it was effectively game over – notwithstanding Summerville making it a hattrick of woodwork interventions and the denial of two reasonable penalty shouts by referee Craig Pawson and Eddie (not so) Smart on VAR duty.

Brentford have a no-nonsense side which has been assembled at minimal cost. It contains no prima-donnas, and every man is competent in the basics of the game – run, control and pass. The same cannot be said for our sorry mob. The Bees completed the misery by adding a third indicating that Nuno’s emperor’s new clothes formation had been well and truly found out. The limitations of players who are either too slow, tactically naïve or possess below par technical skills cannot punch above their weight forever. Once the weaknesses have been identified, exploiting them is relatively straightforward for any astute opposition coach.

Most will be familiar with Einsteins definition of insanity as “doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Well, welcome to Nuno’s theory of game management. His substitutions were once again baffling in their timing and personnel – topped off by subjecting Pablo to a full 90 minutes’ worth of humiliation.

Week by week, I’ve been willing Pablo to cast off the no-goals-scored burden from his shoulders to reveal the true footballer underneath. But now I’m wondering whether he has ever played the game before. It would be no surprise to learn he is another long-lost cousin of George Weah. Could it be the ridiculous beard that’s slowing him down?

That early miss on Saturday summed him up perfectly. No pace, cumbersome, poor control and completely devoid of confidence.

I’m fully resigned to relegation now. It would be a huge shock if it doesn’t happen. The likelihood of further twists and turns in the relegation battle are as improbable as witnessing twists and turns by our players on the pitch. For them, sequences of sideways and backwards passing remain de rigueur.

It will be title-chasing Arsenal up next. The Hammers record against the Gunners is very poor. Four wins from the last 27 league games, with only one of those victories at home – thanks to Declan Rice’s only goal of the game in January 2019. It’s guaranteed that Nuno will go three at the back for this one and pin all his hopes on a miracle.

Should the inevitable happen, it will be my sixth West Ham relegation experience. The current state of the club suggests a far longer stint in the doldrums than we have seen before. A squad stripped of its remaining quality rattling around in the half-empty stadium bowl is not an appealing thought. What lies beneath is frightening.

The club are quick to put out Behind The Scenes videos on the rare occasion of a victory. A true behind the scenes look at West Ham would reveal little is going on behind the curtain. It’s all a façade. A club with no strategy, with sub-standard infrastructure and an amateurish approach to player recruitment. We can only look in awe at how well run clubs such as Bournemouth, Brentford, and Brighton are as they strive for European football on limited resources.

How will it be possible for West Ham to handle the massive turnover in personnel that relegation would trigger while avoiding the perils of a points deductions that non-compliance with the Championship’s PSR rules would bring. Leicester City, here we come!

As I see it, Mavropanos, Todibo, Diouf, Fernandes, Summerville, Bowen and possibly Soucek will all be sold to balance the books. Disasi will return to his parent club. And Taty and Wan-Bissaka will be drafting their come-and-get-me pleas as we speak. It leaves a squad built around Kilman, Pablo, a handful of youngsters and anyone else who cannot be profitably unloaded (the return of Alvarez, JWP & Fulkrug perhaps?). What a dismal thought.

Your cut out and keep guide to the grand West Ham everything must go 2026 fire sale is shown below.

What a mess. I never felt more like singing the (claret and) blues. COYI!

With a visit to Brentford this weekend survival is still in West Ham’s own hands.

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer forecasts what will happen.

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has got it right once again. We beat Everton with a late winner from Callum Wilson. It was a nail-biting last few minutes wasn’t it? We were clinging on to a one goal lead while Spurs were drawing at Wolves, potentially opening the safety gap to four points. Then Spurs went ahead and it was back to two and then Everton equalised and we were back in the bottom three. Then it was almost too late but we did what we should have done earlier and went forward instead of this habit of retreating to hold on to a lead. And this time it worked and with four games to go we are two points to the good again.

Forest had taken the three easiest points of their season when Sunderland capitulated in 37 first half minutes, a disgraceful performance in my book. Leeds are almost, but not yet mathematically out of the relegation equation but three points in their forthcoming game at home to already relegated and Parker-less Burnley could ensure retention of Premier League football for them next season. Forest have daylight, so the smart money it seems is on West Ham and Tottenham arguing over the race to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

If say, Tottenham were to pull off a shock win at Villa who can be inconsistent (losing three of their last six games) and West Ham were to manage three points at Brentford then Forest could be dragged back into it if they fail to win at Stamford Bridge. Only ifs I know but they are still looking over their shoulder. Of course the ideal would be West Ham to win and Forest and Tottenham both to lose! The current position with four games to go:

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	40	+6
Nottingham Forest	16th	39	+5
West Ham	17th	36	+2
Tottenham	18th	34	0

Fixtures remaining (4)

West Ham: Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)

Tottenham: Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)

Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leeds: Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is tough but the away games are against sides not in form. Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious free hit and unlikeliest three points but how are they going to react as the season comes towards a close? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps more winnable than they might have seemed a while ago. Real three point trips? Brentford, for example have now drawn five of their last six games and lost the other one. Newcastle have lost their last four in a row. That leaves the final day game at the London Stadium at home to Leeds.

Spurs have all “pressure fixtures” stacked together. They are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home.

Forest’s difficulty is potentially believing they have done enough already. They may have but Deep Block believes they have the toughest run-in of the four. Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Newcastle is perhaps their easiest game of the four but a final day home game against an in-form Bournemouth team won’t be easy if there is still something to play for. Their five point cushion may seem comfortable at this point but it will become nervous for them if the gap narrows.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most likely to survive because they have points already earned and they have perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as three likely points. The smart money continues to be West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th.

Projecting forward to the final four games Deep Block believes the final table will be:

Team	Position	Points
Leeds	15th	45
Nottingham Forest	16th	42
West Ham	17th	41
Tottenham	18th	40

That gives Tottenham 6 points in the final 4 games, Leeds 5, West Ham 5, and Forest 3. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are akin to guesswork. At least after falling seven points adrift early in 2026 we’ve reached the stage where with four games to go survival is in our own hands. Anything can still happen. And it probably will. COYI!