Preview – Under The Hammers

Bubbles Rising: Hammers Reach the Summit Before Hollywood Comes to Town

For at least one glorious evening, West Ham United found themselves looking down on the rest of the Championship. It may only be September and the league table currently has all the permanence of a sandcastle at high tide, but after Tuesday’s victory at Bolton Wanderers, the Hammers climbed to the summit. Temporary of course but enjoyable nonetheless. We all want to play in the Premier League but playing in the Championship can be fun. Every time we are there (and this is the sixth time in my lifetime) I have mostly enjoyed our time. It makes a change to win more than we lose.

As supporters, we’re under no illusions about the marathon ahead. Forty-six league games leave plenty of time for twists, turns and the occasional bout of self-inflicted heartache. After last season’s relegation, as fans we approached this campaign the same way you’d approach a suspicious kebab at two in the morning, cautiously optimistic but fully aware it could all go horribly wrong. But there is something undeniably comforting about seeing claret and blue occupying top spot, even if only for a fleeting moment. Let’s hope we can continue to occupy the top positions in the table. For the time being at least, although not totally convincing and with more integration work to be done, West Ham are giving us reasons to believe.

Bolton was exactly the sort of fixture that Championship football throws at you. A traditional club, a lively atmosphere and a ground where promotion ambitions can quickly disappear faster than a free pie in the away end. Tough away grounds in the Championship have a habit of chewing up lofty expectations and spitting them out somewhere around the centre circle. But West Ham approached the game with a maturity and confidence that is beginning to suggest this squad is beginning to understand exactly what the assignment is.

There was a controlled aggression to the performance. Not reckless, not frantic, but purposeful. Like a heavyweight boxer who knows he doesn’t need a first-round knockout, West Ham patiently went about their work, confident the opportunities would come. When they did, the Hammers were clinical. I still worry about Nuno’s favoured formation, his team selections, his substitution decisions, the timing and players used and withdrawn, the fact that at times we could make the opposition look good by the space we gave them in midfield. But perhaps that’s churlish? Three wins on the bounce and a rapid rise to the top after an indifferent start should satisfy us, at least for now.

What has perhaps pleased us (supporters) most in recent weeks is that this team no longer feels like a collection of Premier League refugees wondering how they ended up in the second tier. Instead, they are beginning to resemble a side embracing the challenge. There is grit where grit is required and quality when the game opens up. The travelling support, meanwhile, were magnificent as always. 4500 West Ham fans made enough noise to convince half of Lancashire that East London had declared independence.

Championship away days may lack the glamour of Premier League trips to Old Trafford or Anfield, but there is a rawness and authenticity to them that fans secretly enjoy. Real football, real grounds and real atmospheres. No VAR too. When the ball hits the net, the referee signals a goal and the linesman (assistant referee if you prefer) runs back towards the middle with his flag by his side you know the goal will stand. Instant celebration is hard to beat.

The Championship is littered with clubs who assumed their superior pedigree would carry them straight back up. More often than not, the division responds with a swift kick to the backside and a reminder that reputation earns precisely zero points. I think that we are learning that lesson. The victory at Bolton was another step in that education. It wasn’t just about the three points. It was about demonstrating an ability to handle pressure, navigate a difficult away fixture and come away with maximum reward. But the three points were important.

The reward for Tuesday’s efforts is a Friday night date under the lights at the London Stadium against Wrexham, and few could have predicted that fixture carrying quite so much intrigue. If Bolton represented traditional Championship grit, Wrexham arrive with an entirely different flavour. The Welsh club have become football’s version of a Hollywood blockbuster. Everywhere they go there are cameras, headlines and enough publicity to launch a small moon mission. Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney deserve enormous credit for what they’ve achieved, but you still occasionally expect Deadpool to appear at left-back.

Wrexham’s rise has been one of football’s most remarkable modern stories. Backed by Hollywood ownership and accompanied by a global spotlight, they’ve surged through the divisions at breathtaking speed. They are football’s equivalent of a blockbuster film franchise, hugely popular, impossible to ignore and seemingly collecting new followers by the day. Beneath the celebrity sparkle, however, sits a very good football team.

West Ham supporters expecting a comfortable evening should think again. Wrexham have built their ascent on organisation, resilience and an admirable refusal to be overawed by bigger names. They won’t arrive in East London simply grateful to be here. Anyone expecting Wrexham to arrive star-struck by the London Stadium may be in for disappointment. They’ve climbed the divisions by being organised, committed and seemingly immune to pressure.

If there was ever a game made for a Friday night under the lights, this is it. The cameras will be there. The atmosphere should be cracking. Social media will spend all week pretending the fixture is the football equivalent of Avengers Endgame. For West Ham, though, the task remains beautifully simple, we just need to win the game. Lose and the Championship will gleefully remind us that it specialises in bringing ambitious clubs back down to earth.

The Hammers have momentum and must protect it. Momentum in the Championship is like finding a shopping trolley with four working wheels, rare, precious and not something you want to let go of. The encouraging thing is that this squad appears increasingly comfortable with the pressure. Players are beginning to look less like Premier League survivors and more like a team determined to escape this division at the first attempt.

Of course, seasoned West Ham supporters know better than to get carried away. But a look through social media suggests that some are getting carried away. September league tables have fooled many before. Championship campaigns are long, unforgiving and occasionally downright ridiculous. But if Tuesday’s win at Bolton felt like another encouraging chapter, Friday offers the chance to build on it. For one night at least, we sat proudly at the head of the queue. Now comes the harder part and that is staying at the top.

We’ve all been here before. Supporting West Ham is a bit like riding a rollercoaster designed by someone who actively dislikes rollercoasters. Just when you’re enjoying the view, an unexpected twist arrives from nowhere. So strap yourselves in. If we can send Wrexham back up the M40 empty-handed, the bubbles might just keep rising a little while longer. And after the frustrations of recent times, that is a tune every West Ham fan will be happy to keep singing.

The circus is rolling into East London, Hollywood is coming to Stratford, and West Ham have the chance to ensure that when the credits roll on Friday night, the leading role belongs to the Hammers.

Promotion Isn’t Won In September but are West Ham Beginning to Find Their Championship Identity?

A glimpse of the promotion contenders we hoped for with three points against Wolves

glasses I would probably have felt that it seemed like a significant moment in West Ham’s season. I hope it was significant but I was watching for a lot of the time through my fingers. In many ways it was a good and bad performance at the same time. To score four goals against a side likely to be one of the main contenders for promotion was certainly very good, and if we had been offered that prior to the game then the proverbial hand would have been bitten off. But once again two goals were conceded and it could have been more. The defence remains a big concern.

But after an uncertain start to life back in the Championship, we finally saw a performance that at times combined attacking quality, energy and, most importantly, three points. Divine Mukasa announced himself to a wider audience with two excellent goals. Jarrod Bowen still doesn’t quite seem to be the player we know he can be but I’m looking forward to him giving us a demonstration this season of why he will be one of the division’s standout players.

The win moved us onto five points from our opening four league matches after draws with Burnley and Watford and a disappointing defeat to Charlton. While sitting mid-table after four games is hardly promotion-winning form, the manner of the Wolves victory suggested that the team may finally be beginning to click. Mukasa’s double, the first one a worldie, the second perhaps a slightly fortunate deflection, and an overall attacking display that produced four goals against one of the pre-season promotion favourites should give everyone around the London Stadium genuine encouragement.

What was particularly encouraging was the contribution of some of our new arrivals. Mukasa stole the headlines, but I thought Joel Piroe helped create problems throughout. Manor Solomon has already shown flashes of the creativity and direct running that made him such a potentially exciting signing, while Arne Engels had his best game to date I reckon and will hopefully bring energy, composure and technical quality to midfield. Joel Veltman, meanwhile, should add experience and leadership to a defence that is still some way away from where it needs to be.

Of the nine summer signings, Engels, Edvin Austbo, Manor Solomon, Keiber Lamadrid, Adama Boiro, Joel Veltman, Morato, Joel Piroe and Divine Mukasa, it is those five players who we have been able to glimpse so far. But it is still very early days. It will take time for the team to settle and the others to get involved too. For me Mukasa’s performance against Wolves was undoubtedly the standout individual display of the season so far, but Engels will I hope be a natural fit in midfield. I’d like to see him alongside Orford, one academy player I have high hopes for. Solomon has added flair and shown flashes of what he is capable of, and Piroe will hopefully become the reliable goalscorer every promotion-chasing side needs. Championship campaigns are marathons rather than sprints. The depth provided by players such as Morato, Boiro, Austbo and Lamadrid will prove crucial once injuries, suspensions and fixture congestion begin to take their toll. I hope they all prove to be worthy additions. Time will tell.

Attention now turns to Saturday’s home game against Derby County. On paper, this is exactly the type of fixture that promotion contenders need to be winning. Derby arrive with four points from their opening four matches and have already shown some inconsistency, following up a good win at Portsmouth with a heavy defeat against Swansea. They may not be the biggest name in the division but they are exactly the kind of opponent who can trip up a side with promotion ambitions.

The challenge for West Ham is to build momentum. Too often over the years we have followed an encouraging result with a frustrating setback. If we can reproduce the intensity and attacking intent shown against Wolves, there is every reason to believe we can collect another three points. The London Stadium crowd should also be buoyed by what was witnessed on Monday night, creating an atmosphere that could help push the team forward. I’d just like to see us going for it right at the start of the match.

Looking more broadly at the promotion picture, the early Championship table illustrates just how competitive the division is likely to be. Swansea, QPR and Charlton are the unlikely leaders and have set the early pace with ten points from their first four matches, while Wolves remain firmly in contention despite their defeat in East London. West Ham sit on five points, which means there is work to do, but four games is far too early for definitive conclusions.

That brings me to an interesting comparison with last season’s promoted clubs: Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City. None of those sides won promotion in the opening month. In fact, all three were still finding their identity after four matches and were some distance from the consistency they eventually showed over the full campaign. After four games Coventry were fifth, Hull were 17^th on four points, and Ipswich were 20^th with three points.

History tells us that automatic promotion is rarely secured in September. Consistency over 46 matches is what matters. Geoff has pointed out in previous articles that looking at the last decade of Championship seasons, the second-placed side has typically required somewhere in the region of 88 to 96 points to secure automatic promotion. In several seasons, the total has been above 90 points, meaning a side usually needs to average close to two points per game across the campaign. We are currently up to 1.25.

That should serve as a reminder that our current tally of five points from four matches leaves little room for complacency. However, it should also provide perspective. One good run of form can transform the table remarkably quickly. Championship seasons are littered with examples of teams who made steady starts before hitting their stride.

The common thread between those teams was not a blistering start but continuous improvement. Each gradually developed a settled team, reliable partnerships and a clear style of play. They found ways to win difficult away games, avoided lengthy losing runs and accumulated points steadily through the winter months.

At West Ham we have the potential to follow a similar path. Unlike many Championship clubs, we do possess some genuine Premier League-level talent in the squad. Bowen remains one of the division’s elite players and is the best example. His quality and goals will hopefully make the difference in tight matches throughout the season.

We have scored eight goals, only Wolves (11) and Southampton (10) have scored more. But there are still issues to address. We aren’t flawless by any means and the Wolves game, despite the result, confirmed that. Wolves found a lot of space at times and controlled the majority of the possession as we began to sit back. The two goals we conceded were avoidable. As it did last season conceding goals remains a concern. We’ve conceded seven so far, only the bottom four clubs plus Millwall and Wolves have conceded more.

Yet for the first time this season I had a sense that the pieces are beginning, but only just beginning, to fall into place. The combination of Bowen’s experience, Engels arrival, Mukasa’s emergence, Taty and Piroe’s goalscoring instincts, and the quality added by the late summer recruitment giving the squad some added depth gives me reason for some optimism, certainly at Championship level. I hope that Mavropanos, who has been both good and bad so far, is not going to suffer the Hammer of the Year curse as Wan Bissaka did last season. I also don’t believe Kilman is as bad as most of our fans on social media believe, certainly not at this level.

If we can back up the Wolves performance with victories against Derby and in the matches that follow, then the conversation around West Ham will begin to change. Instead of discussing a difficult adjustment to Championship football, we will start talking about a club gathering momentum and moving towards the automatic promotion places.

Four games into the season, it is far too soon to panic and equally too soon to get carried away. But after Monday night’s performance, I am beginning believe West Ham finally look like a side capable of mounting and hopefully sustaining the promotion challenge I expected to see. Perhaps I do wear claret and blue tinted glasses? The task now is to prove it wasn’t a one-off.

A Fistful Of Transfer Fees: A Time To Spend, Spend, Spend? Plus Preview of West Ham at Watford

The lows of last Saturday were partly offset by a youth inspired Carabao Cup high at Southampton. What now for West Ham as they return to league action in the last weekend of the transfer window?

It’s been a fairly typical week in the life of a West Ham supporter. From the anger and despair of that submissive performance against Charlton at the weekend to the delight of a youth inspired Carabao cup romp on the south coast a few days later.

People say that following West Ham is roller coaster ride. But it’s the reverse really. On a roller coaster the thrills come on the way down while in football they are felt on the way up. Perhaps ultimately neither truly live up to expectations or last long enough in the memory.

We should really have learned our lesson by now or accepted that our support is no more than an annual subscription to disappointment. Wouldn’t it be refreshing if the club marketed it in this way? Upgrade your Casual Sufferer free trial to enjoy the full benefits of our Frequent Flagellant membership. A special limited time offer which must end when the transfer window closes.

One of the accidental benefits from relegation is the opportunity to survive an extra round or two in the Carabao Cup before the obligatory autumnal elimination comes around, usually away at Liverpool. Even so, an away tie with Southampton looked like no easy task on the evidence of form to date. The Saints boasting an impressive home record at the St Mary’s Stadium.

However, despite the best efforts of master spy, Tonda Eckert – the miniature microphone hidden behind the Piri-Piri sauce bottle in the Rush Green canteen, motion tracking cameras installed on the top of training cones or sending Sammy Saint along with a pair of Meta glasses – he was unable to prepare his side for the youthful exuberance of the West Ham performance.

Once again, the early signs were not encouraging. A lack of awareness and tenacity in the Hammers defence allowing the home side to grab a soft early lead. Gradually, the youngsters grew into the game, drew level just before the break, and blew the hosts away in the second period. Josh Ajala stole many of the headlines with a debut brace but there were also fine contributions from Lewis Orford, Divine Mukasa and Airidas Golambeckis. It was pleasing to see four very well taken goals.

It would be premature to bet the remainder of our season on these young lads but they can surely play an important part and become part of a brighter home-grown future. For me, seeing Mukasa carry the ball forward with confidence was a reminder of how much this has been missed from the Hammers line-up – unfortunately, he is not our player.

I have seen suggestions that Nuno can use the victory as a blueprint for the rest of campaign. If he does let’s hope he doesn’t have it back-to-front or upside down.

With the transfer window still having several days to run, the club is mired in a phoney squad building phase. Not knowing who can be shifted and who can be recruited during the final days as the clock ticks down. The scale of problem has been magnified by circumstances at West Ham this time around. The finances were in a godawful mess even before relegation and will have been giving the bean counters double entry nightmares ever since thanks to a huge drop in revenues, a boardroom stalemate and the need to comply with the 85% squad cost ratio rules. Untangling the gordian knot of inherited chaos, outstanding debt, and ongoing transfers while remaining competitive cannot be underestimated. A bit like attempting to repair a cassette tape that had got mangled up in the tape player with only a pencil for assistance – but harder! Will it ever play properly again?

The good news is that the completed and pipeline transfers out will have saved tidy sums on player wages and amortisation, as well as generating significant player sale profits – which can be added back in to revenues for SCR purposes. Hopefully, it is clear by now what is left in petty cash to strengthen the squad in the final days of the window – assuming there is money left over after meeting outstanding cash flow obligations from previous seasons.

I doubt it’s going to be spend, spend, spend but those gaps in the squad won’t fill themselves. I still want to see reinforcements at centre back and defensive midfield as a minimum – whether that means spending a portion of the transfer windfall or raiding the loan market. As long as no-one is daft enough to sign Reiss Nelson.

Saturday sees West Ham’s first return to Vicarage Road since December 2021, a game the Hammers won 4-1 and featured Nikola Vlasic’s only goal for the Hammers. In fact, the last three visits to Watford have each ended with comfortable away wins at an aggregate of 11 goals for and 3 against.

Can we assume that Nuno has finally seen the light and abandons his 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 obsession for good. It was only ever an expediency to cater for the inclusion of winter signings, Taty and Pablo. A 4-2-3-1 formation makes far more sense in ensuring we are not overrun in midfield and vulnerable through the centre. My own pick for a starting eleven would be: Areola • Veltman Mavropanos Kilman Mayers • Engels Orford • Bowen Mukasa Solomon • Taty (or Piroe).

Watford have started the season with a home win against Southampton and an away draw at Wrexham in the league. In midweek, a much-changed team were thrashed 5-1 Peterborough at Vicarage Road. With a recent history of constant upheaval, being a Hornet’s fan must be equally as frustrating as being a Hammer.

A scene from the Comic Strip’s spoof spaghetti western “A Fistful Of Travelers Cheques” predicted perfectly how the club would later be run under their current owners:

Carlos: Which football team do you support?
Miguel: Eh… Watford.
Carlos: [spits] Watford can’t play to save their lives, amigo!
Miguel: I agree.
Carlos: Oh. Oh, well then, I don’t agree! I think they can play. They just need a new manager!

Any many a new manager have they had. Current incumbent, Alessio Dionisi, is the 25^th to hold the title since the Pozzo family assumed control in 2012. Do they bother putting a name on the door? Hiden away on the list are some familiar old names including Glenn Roeder, Gianfranco Zola and Slaven Bilic. Of all the managers employed, it is Zola who holds the record for surviving the greatest number of games.

Other West Ham connections are one time director Jack Petchey who owned Watford during the 1980/90s – buying from and then selling back to Elton John – and current CEO, Scott Duxbury, who held the same role at Upton Park prior to the Gold & Sullivan takeover.

According to the internet, Dionisi’s style revolves around building from the back, attacking overloads, intense pressing and pushing bodies forward. Basically, the same as most sides outside of West Ham. It should allow space at the back for the Hammers to exploit. It will be a good opportunity to see how young players react to an intense pressing opponent.

What we will get on the day is anyone’s guess. Can we maintain a decent level of intensity over 90 minutes, can we not only pass accurately but with purpose, can we manage to defend a lead without dropping deeper and deeper? Come on Nuno, you know it makes sense. COYI!

Time to Show We’ve Learned: West Ham Face Charlton After Burnley Collapse

There is something about the start of a new season that makes football supporters believe again. No matter how miserable the previous campaign was, no matter how many times the club broke your heart, August somehow convinces you that things might finally be different. As West Ham fans, we know that feeling better than most.

After relegation, this summer has been about picking ourselves up, dusting ourselves down and convincing ourselves that the Championship is only a temporary stop on the journey back to where we belong. The expectation at West Ham has not changed and must not change. Promotion is the target and nothing less. Yet as Charlton prepare to visit the London Stadium on Saturday, there remains a nagging feeling in the back of every West Ham supporter’s mind because we know we have seen this story before.

And last weekend, at Burnley, it felt like we were watching the opening chapter all over again. The game brought back painful memories. On paper, a 2-2 draw away at Burnley is not a terrible result. Turf Moor is likely to be one of the toughest grounds in the Championship and most supporters would have accepted a point before kick-off. West Ham remain unbeaten in competitive football this season and there are certainly some positives to take from the opening weekend. But football is never played on paper.

The reality is that we found ourselves two goals in front and we should have been cruising with so little time to go. The game was there to be won. Instead, Burnley fought back and we left with a draw that felt more like a defeat than a point gained, a sinking feeling that was all too familiar. Last season, we developed an alarming habit of retreating into our shell whenever we got ahead. Rather than pushing for another goal, we tried to protect what we had. Time and again it backfired and by the end of the campaign, twenty points had been dropped from winning positions. In any division, that is catastrophic and of course in a relegation battle it proved fatal.

The most frustrating aspect was that we could all see it happening (or at least most of us!). Supporters in the stands could see it, viewers at home could see it, and opposing teams certainly could see it. But could the manager see it? Whenever we took a lead, confidence seemed to drain rather than grow. That is why the Burnley game felt so significant. A new division, new optimism and a fresh start were supposed to bring a different mentality but instead, the first league game of the campaign produced the same old anxiety. When Burnley pulled one back after Scarles’ reckless and unnecessary challenge every West Ham fan knew what was coming next. That has to change and it has to change quickly if we are to contend for promotion.

For all the frustration surrounding the Burnley result, there are still reasons for hope. Pre-season was encouraging to an extent. Our displays gave us some belief that we could recover from the trauma of relegation. We looked fitter, sharper and more united than we often appeared during the previous campaign. The League Cup victory over Portsmouth offered further encouragement despite a less than convincing performance and reminded us what winning football feels like.

Do we yet have an understanding of what the Championship demands? This is not a division where reputations matter. Nobody cares how many seasons we spent in the Premier League. Nobody is intimidated by our badge or the fact that we have sold 50,000 season tickets. Every single game is going to be a fight. As fans we understand that. Do the players and the manager? If promotion is going to happen, it will need to be earned.

What do you think about the arrivals of Joël Piroe and Arne Engels? Piroe’s signing in particular feels like an acknowledgement that West Ham need proven Championship quality if we are going to bounce straight back. Piroe’s reputation at this level is excellent. We are in the Championship now and were never going to attract players that some fans hope for. I hope he can bring us some excitement over the course of the season. For the first time in a while, recruitment appears to be focused on the realities of the division we are actually playing in rather than the one we wish we were playing in. Promotion-winning teams are built for their environment.

Engels is totally different. He is just 22 years old, an established Belgian international but hasn’t played in England. Nonetheless he was an important part of the Celtic team that won the Scottish Premiership last season and apparently has a big engine, a real box to box player, and can score. He managed 17 goals and 22 assists in 100 Celtic appearances in all competitions including Europe. Let’s hope he can create chances for Piroe who has an excellent record in front of goal in the second tier scoring 73 goals (plus 18 assists) in 179 appearances. Hopefully the arrival of both Piroe and Engels will give a boost to the team in this game and in the season as a whole.

Charlton will relish the occasion and there is no danger of them arriving lacking confidence. Their 2-1 victory over Derby County on the opening weekend showcased exactly why they could be dangerous opponents this season, despite the low expectations of bookmakers and pundits alike. Nathan Jones appears to have built a side that is organised, hardworking and completely committed to his methods.

They came from behind to win at The Valley, showing the kind of resilience West Ham supporters would love to see from our own team. Lloyd Jones and Tyreece Campbell got the goals in a result that immediately gave Charlton momentum for the new season. And let’s be honest, they would absolutely love to derail West Ham’s promotion ambitions. This is a local derby and Charlton will see this as a free hit at one of the division’s biggest clubs. We have to make sure they regret that thought the moment the whistle blows.

It’s time for West Ham to show some ruthlessness. For me this game is about proving we have learned something. In particular if we take the lead, can we stay brave and keep attacking? Can we play with the conviction of a team chasing promotion rather than the fear of a team scarred by relegation?

The crowd needs to play its part. There should be a real edge inside the London Stadium. Charlton’s supporters will make themselves heard and West Ham fans, desperate for signs that the club is moving in the right direction, will need to respond in kind in the first home league game of an important season. What we all want to see is a team that keeps pushing and refuses to retreat. The great West Ham sides of the past were never built on fear.

My head says this will be difficult. Charlton are organised, confident and arriving on the back of an opening-day victory. But my heart as always says West Ham need a performance that makes a statement at this stage of the season. Most of all, the team and the manager need to show supporters that the lessons of the past have been learned. The scars of last season will not disappear overnight, and after Burnley some of those wounds were reopened. But football always offers another chance and Saturday is that chance. At some point this club has to stop being haunted by the mistakes of the past and start writing a different story.

Hope Springs Eternal: West Ham’s Season Gets Underway at Burnley

After what feels like the usual endless summer of debate, rebuilding and speculation, the wait is almost over. West Ham finally begin the new season with a trip to Burnley on Sunday, and for some of us the opening fixture cannot come soon enough. Pre-season has given us some (limited) reasons to feel encouraged, but like every West Ham supporter, we know better than to get carried away before a competitive ball has been kicked.

The close season has brought significant change to the squad, and there is still some upheaval to come. Some familiar faces have moved on and, as always, there is a sense of uncertainty whenever experienced players leave. Every departure creates a gap, whether in quality, leadership or simply dressing room character. At the same time, football never stands still and the squad needed refreshing. The challenge for the club has been ensuring that those exits are balanced by the right arrivals rather than simply increasing the number of players on the books. Unfortunately, the end of the transfer window never coincides with the beginning of a new season so there is still a lot of dealing to be done in terms of both exits and new arrivals.

The few new signings so far have generated some cautious optimism among supporters but more need to arrive. Hopefully, there will be an attempt to bring in players who can fit a clearer style of play rather than simply collecting names in the Sullivan style. Pre-season has offered just a few glimpses of what that might look like but is this enough? The intensity still needs to be higher, the movement needs to be sharper, and there needs to be a greater willingness to move the ball quickly through midfield. Of course, friendly matches rarely tell the full story. Every summer produces teams who look outstanding in July and struggle badly by September, and vice-versa. Have we seen enough to believe there is a foundation being built? The jury is still out but the picture will become clearer once the window closes and the squad is finalised.

We are the early season favourites to win the Championship and odds on for promotion. But that doesn’t surprise me as relegated Premier League clubs often dominate the early betting markets due to parachute payments and ‘supposed’ superior squad depth with players of top- flight quality and experience. It’s no surprise that Wolves and Burnley are second and third favourites. But there are several other clubs that have realistic chances to challenge for the title and promotion. Despite their points deduction I believe Southampton will be in the mix, alongside Middlesbrough and perhaps Birmingham too. And I wouldn’t rule out Sheffield United, Wrexham and Norwich.

Jarrod Bowen staying at the club is a major boost and both he and Taty should score goals at Championship level if given a good supply of chances. But the jigsaw needs to be completed before we really know what is going to happen. More attacking quality and creativity is still needed.

Does the squad look hungry? There has been competition for places, younger players have been given opportunities to impress and some of the established figures have looked determined to set the tone for the campaign ahead. Kante and Orford both showed some evidence of promise in the League Cup last weekend, hopefully that will be maintained, and others will shine too if given the opportunity. Unlike some fans I like the signing of Veltman, an experienced, solid versatile defender who should add to the leadership at the back, and in the dressing room.

But as West Ham supporters we are not without concerns. We never are. The squad is still a work in progress. Depending on how the remainder of the transfer window develops, there will still probably be areas requiring further strengthening. Injuries, as we know only too well, can quickly expose weaknesses. The opening weeks of the season often test the depth of a squad far more than its strongest starting eleven.

Last season had its difficult moments, especially early on, and there were periods when optimism was hard to find. The summer has at least brought a sense of reset. A new season offers hope, even if experience teaches us that hope and reality do not always travel hand in hand where West Ham are concerned.

The first test at Burnley is unlikely to be straightforward. Turf Moor has never been a venue where points are simply handed out. Burnley will see the opening game as an opportunity to make a statement of their own, and the atmosphere should be intense from the first whistle. Early season fixtures are often decided less by quality and more by organisation, concentration and willingness to compete.

That is why the opening half-hour could be crucial. I hope we have learned from the slow opening period against Portsmouth. Burnley are likely to start aggressively, feeding off their home support and attempting to put us under pressure. We will need to handle that initial period sensibly. There is no need for panic if the game becomes scrappy. In fact, the team that keeps its composure is often the one that comes away with the result on opening weekend.

Midfield could be the key battleground. If we can establish some control and dictate the tempo, our attacking players should find opportunities. The signs from pre-season suggest that there is some creativity within the squad (more still needed though), but competitive football demands more than attractive passages of play. It requires discipline out of possession and clinical finishing when chances arrive.

Defensively, we will also need to be stronger and more consistent than we have been at times in recent seasons. Supporters can accept the occasional mistake, but what frustrates us is when goals are conceded through preventable errors. A solid defensive performance on Sunday would provide an important platform for the rest of the campaign.

Looking beyond Burnley, there is genuine reason to believe this season can be productive, but expectations should probably remain realistic. What most West Ham supporters want is progress. We want to see a team with an identity, a squad that competes every week and players who are committed to the shirt.

If we get some quality new arrivals and they settle quickly, and if the core of the squad stays fit and the positive elements of pre-season carry into competitive matches, there is every chance that this could be an enjoyable campaign. Some talent is there. The challenge is turning potential into consistency. The Championship is known for its unpredictability over a 46-game season, and the league’s ultra-competitive nature means surprises are common.

For now, though, all thoughts lead to Burnley. Sunday represents a fresh start, a chance to put the frustrations of the past behind us and begin building momentum. As supporters, we travel with the usual mixture of excitement, hope and nervousness. That is what following West Ham has always been about.

The forthcoming season will not be defined by one match, but a positive result at Turf Moor would set the right tone. After another summer of change, we finally get the opportunity to see what this team is really capable of. But we won’t really know what we are capable of until all the exits and arrivals are finalised when the window closes. Like every West Ham fan, I am optimistic, cautious, worried, hopeful and excited in equal measure. We never know what we are going to get. The journey starts now.

Can West Ham United bounce back from Relegation?

Past history has shown that we always come back very quickly. But will it be the same this time?

West Ham have a long history of bouncing back from relegation. I have followed the club since 1958 and I have witnessed us drop out of the top flight six times. Since dropping down in 1978, 1989, 1992, 2003, 2011 and now 2026, the club has generally responded well to the challenge of life in the second tier. In fact, with the exception of the period following the 1978 relegation, we have never spent more than two seasons outside the top division before earning promotion again, and in 1978 we only spent three seasons away, and those were three of the most exciting seasons that I remember.

The first major test came after relegation in 1978. The Hammers started life in the Second Division impressively, a whirlwind start opening the season with a 5-2 victory over Notts County and we followed this up with a smart 3-0 away win at Newcastle United to top the league. Joy turned to gloom, however, with two home defeats in four days and we never again topped the league that season. The first two games suggested an immediate return was possible, and we remained in promotion contention in the top five for much of the campaign. However, a poor run towards the end of the season, four wins in the last sixteen and just one win in the final seven games saw us finish fifth and miss out on promotion.

The following season brought one of the most memorable achievements in the club’s history, as we won the FA Cup despite still being outside the top-flight. However, league form was inconsistent and incredibly we only finished seventh. How was this possible with players of the calibre of Parkes, Stewart, Lampard, Martin, Bonds, Brooking, Devonshire, Holland, Neighbour, Cross and Pearson?

After a narrow 1-0 defeat against Liverpool in the Charity Shield at the start of the 1980-81 season we disappointingly lost the opening league game at home to Luton Town. From there we went on an amazing unbeaten run winning fourteen and drawing three games before a defeat in mid-November to Luton Town again! By then we were at the top and never relinquished the top spot finally securing promotion in the record-breaking season which saw us win 28 and draw 10 of our 42 games. 66 points (just 2 points for a win then) would have been 94 points in the modern three points for a win times. It meant that it took the club three seasons to regain top-flight status.

When we were relegated again in 1989, the response was less convincing initially. The club experienced managerial upheaval and were mid-table for much of the season under Lou Macari. We eventually finished only seventh in our first season back in the Second Division. However, under Billy Bonds we produced a much stronger campaign in 1990-91. The team went unbeaten in the opening 21 league matches and built our promotion challenge on a strong defensive record. Early results in the first four games included draws against Middlesbrough and Portsmouth before wins over Watford and Leicester City. That consistency helped us win 24 and draw 15 of our 46 fixtures amassing 87 points to finish second (behind champions Oldham!) and secure promotion back to the top after two seasons away.

The 1992 relegation produced a much faster recovery. We won our opening match at Barnsley but then suffered defeats against Charlton Athletic and Newcastle United. Rather than derailing their campaign, those setbacks appeared to galvanise the side. Billy Bonds’ team quickly found momentum and produced several emphatic victories, including a 5-1 win at Bristol City and a 6-0 home victory over Sunderland. By the end of the season, we had finished runners-up with 26 wins and 10 draws and returned to the top flight which was now the FA Premiership at the first attempt with 88 points in second place behind Newcastle. We needed to beat Cambridge in the final game of the season to ensure automatic promotion and achieved this with second half goals from David Speedie and Clive Allen.

Perhaps the most frustrating recovery attempt came after the club’s relegation in 2003. Despite possessing considerable talent and expectations of an immediate return, West Ham were unable to secure promotion straight away. The season began positively with a victory over Preston North End, but inconsistency soon followed. Manager Glenn Roeder departed early in the campaign and the club eventually reached the play-off final, where we were beaten by Crystal Palace. Promotion finally arrived in 2005 under Alan Pardew, meaning West Ham spent two seasons outside the Premier League.

The 2011 relegation is perhaps the most relevant comparison to the current situation. With Sam Allardyce appointed as manager and a squad that retained significant Premier League quality, West Ham entered the Championship as one of the favourites for promotion. However, the campaign did not begin perfectly. The Hammers lost their opening game 1-0 at home to Cardiff City before responding strongly with victories over Doncaster Rovers, Watford and Nottingham Forest. Although we narrowly missed automatic promotion, we eventually secured a return to the Premier League by winning the play-offs and defeating Blackpool at Wembley.

The 2026-27 Championship campaign presents a fresh challenge. We remain one of the largest clubs in the division with massive support, the biggest stadium, and continue to possess players with top-flight experience. But are we good enough? These are the players who took us down. We’ve lost two talented players but received top dollar for them. We could do without the boardroom turmoil which doesn’t help. We could do with an injection of some talented new players. The evidence of pre-season games doesn’t fill me with great enthusiasm for our prospects for an immediate return. But I accept pre-season games can be deceptive.

The Championship is notoriously unpredictable over a 46-game season. We are clear favourites with the bookmakers to win the league and earn promotion but relegated Premier League clubs often dominate the early betting because of parachute payments and assumed squad strength. However, the league’s competitiveness regularly produces surprises, and I certainly would not risk my money on a swift return.

Looking across the past five completed relegation cycles, a clear pattern emerges. West Ham have usually responded positively to relegation, earning promotion within one or two seasons on four occasions. Only the aftermath of the 1978 relegation resulted in a longer stay outside the top-flight, but that was just three seasons and what seasons they were once we got accustomed to the level. That record provides grounds for optimism that the latest setback will prove temporary, even if history also shows that promotion is rarely as straightforward as we supporters hope that it will be.

Crisis? What Crisis? The Summer of Discontent Heats Up At The London Stadium

West Ham’s approach to new season has the level of preparedness usually associated with someone mistaking blind optimism for a successful strategy. What could possibly go wrong?

West Ham fans of any vintage are well used to the topsy-turvy nature of most football seasons. More turvy than topsy if the truth be told. But at least we used to have the summer break to forget all about it and watch the cricket instead. Nowadays, the close season is filled with almost as much drama, swinging from despair to hope and back again with each news cycle.

Intermittent relegation is a cross we’ve come to bear in east London. We may kid ourselves it shouldn’t happen, that it can never happen again, that we are too big and too rich a club to get things so wrong. But then here we are. Forever cursed with incompetent owners?

Emotions had understandably reached their lowest ebb when relegation was finally confirmed on 24 May. Here was a club with huge debt, expensive credit, plunging revenues, supporting a lopsided squad of overpaid misfits. Turmoil, fire sales, games played in a half empty London stadium, and visions of becoming a second Leicester City were reasonable predictions for the year ahead.

Then a few things happened to slowly lift the gloom. The much-despised David Sullivan resigned to spend more time with his lawyers and following his sidekick Baroness Brady of Knightsbridge out of the door. A joint statement from Daniel Kretinski and Vanessa Gold promised a share transfer deal and a newfound spirit of cooperation that would see the Czech become the club’s largest shareholder. At long last, a specialist director of recruitment had been appointed, and the club had played hard ball in extracting top of the range fees for the sales of Fernandes and Summerville. And loans to Barclay Bank had been paid off, although the more extortionate payday credit from Rights and Media Funding remained in place.

Perhaps things weren’t as bad as we feared after all. The situation was still light on detail. Had West Ham complied with the final year Premier League PSR rules, how would they meet Championship Squad Cost Ratio rules in a world of falling revenues, would the transfer funds received be used to pay off debt or improve the squad?

Regardless, a ray of optimism saw fit to raise its ugly head. And whenever that happens, it’s a sure sign that things are about to come crashing down. And so, it came to pass – and predictably it was a backwards pass! We discovered the boardroom pact was not as harmonious as presented, the pre-season games were a reminder of how one dimensional the football is under the current manager, and despite the gaping holes in the squad, the only new addition has been the permanent signing of Keiber Lamadrid.

Could there be a worse time to be caught in ownership limbo? It is difficult to see it not having knock-on implications in the day to day running of the club. The impasse in the original plan, it seems, were the conflicting desires of Kretinsky and Gold. For reasons unknown (but widely speculated upon), Kretinsky hadn’t wanted to increase his ownership above 50%, and the Gold Family Trust didn’t want to be left holding a small percentage of shares.

It has been suggested that the plan was for Kretinsky to find a separate buyer for the remainder of Gold’s shares but with the passing of time nothing came to fruition. Into this void enter Amanda Staveley and her consortium with an offer for the whole of the Golds shareholding which they saw as too good to refuse. Did Kretinsky fail to follow through or did the Golds renege on the deal. Both claim to be acting in the best interests of West Ham. What to make of it? The malign tentacles of Gold and Sullivan are far from history.

The latest move clearly upset Kretinsky and his desire for stability in the run up to the new season. There must now be a two-month two-round process before anything can be resolved. In round 1, existing shareholders have the right to buy the Gold shares in proportion to their existing holding – Sullivan and Kretinsky could buy 50.8% and 36% of the shares on offer respectively. Other minority shareholders have the same option. In round 2, any unsold shares can be purchased by those buying in round 1.

The general online consensus is that Sullivan is unlikely to be interested in increasing his stake – and he has remained uncharacteristically quiet about his position on the matter. So, everything depends on Kretinsky showing his colours. It will need to be an all or nothing play from him – either doing nothing or buying all the Gold shares to block Staveley’s bid – for now. Until she returns with an eye on Sullivan’s holding.

It has never been obvious what Kretinsky wants. He has been a mostly passive investor with West Ham, just one small part of his immense asset portfolio. The Sullivan situation may have forced his hand to act but possibly only to protect his original investment. Does he have any true appetite to become a majority owner? All we can do now is wait and hope the club does not enter a state of paralysis as the boardroom struggle plays out.

If things in the boardroom are a mess, then the omens on the pitch look no better. It came as a surprise to many when the club decided to persevere with Nuno Espirito Santo after last season’s events. Continuity is fine if what you want is more of the same. True, he was mostly lumbered with the squad he inherited, there was an upturn in form towards the end of the campaign, and he has a previous Championship promotion under his belt. But he wasn’t a late relegation battle arrival. He was appointed in September with plenty of opportunity to make his mark. Is his brand of cautious, counter attacking football really the route to success in the long, hard slog of a Championship season. I see no rationale why West Ham should be among the favourites for the title or automatic promotion.

As yet, nothing has been done to address the squad’s perennial on-field weaknesses: reliable goal-scoring front man; creativity in midfield; energetic defensive midfielder; and fearless central defender – virtually the whole spine of the team. I made the mistake of shelling out a fiver to watch Saturday’s friendly and how toothless was that performance against a side who just about managed to avoid the drop from Bundesliga 2 last season. OK, it was only a friendly, but you would expect to see signs of a team able to take control a game. Instead, it was a reprise of the plodding, unadventurous style that failed to impress in the Premier League.

Listening to players interviewed after games and I get the impression they have no belief either. Platitudes such as “we’re heading in the right direction”, “we need to keep growing as a team” and “we must keep pushing for what we want to achieve” had me checking whether David Brent had been appointed Director of Communications.

I do understand some of the original delay in recruitment while Nils Koppen got his feet under the table but to have done nothing on the eve of the new season is disastrous. Other clubs have shown it is possible to recover from a slow start, but it’s a dangerous game. And far more difficult when you add in an uber cautious coach.

Unfortunately, I’m not on the same page as those who see youth team players stepping up to fill the missing pieces. I love it when a youth team breaks through and am loathe to write any off any individual too quickly. But for a self-styled ‘academy of football’ West Ham have a wretched record of youth development in recent years. Sadly, I’ve yet to be convinced by any of the current crop but will be more than happy to be proved wrong.

The academy might like to think of itself as a production line of talent, but it is turning out identikit graduates where discipline has been drilled in at the expense of flair and risk taking. Players whose first instinct is control, half turn, and short pass. Nothing more. It’s like the way plant breeders eliminated taste from fruit by prioritising appearance. We were perhaps lucky that the only notable academy graduate of the past 15 years got his early footballing education at a completely different club.

What we are left with is players who look elegant but fall short on the other attributes required to make it as a top-level footballer – strength, determination, resilience, stamina, positional sense, awareness, vision, and decision-making. Whether that is peculiar to West Ham or is a wider problem of the rarified academy environment, I don’t know. Are these the skills which were once honed during 20-a-side matches in the street or over the park?

Apart from all that, preparations for the new season look perfect. What could possibly go wrong? COYI!

The trapdoor is open: West Ham’s Three Game Fight To Stay Up

One point behind Spurs, two realistically when you look at the goal difference, a brutal run-in, and no margin for error

Three matches rarely feel like a season, but that is exactly what West Ham are facing as the 2025–26 Premier League campaign enters its closing stretch. With two clubs already down and one final trapdoor still open, the Hammers’ run-in is less about style points and more about survival; we must turn the London Stadium into a pressure cooker, find points in all three games probably, and hope the margins fall our way.

The Premier League table explains the anxiety. After 35 games, West Ham sit 18th on 36 points with a goal difference of -19, one point behind Tottenham Hotspur in 17th on 37 points (Spurs’ goal difference is -9). Burnley (20 points) and Wolves (18 points) have already been relegated, leaving one remaining relegation place that now looks like a straight shootout between the Hammers and Spurs. Mathematically Forest and Palace are still involved but let’s be realistic; they are safe.

In practical terms, West Ham’s fate is no longer in our own hands. Being a point adrift means simply “matching” Tottenham’s results won’t be enough; West Ham need to outscore Spurs by at least a point over the final three fixtures. And if the clubs finish level on points, goal difference becomes pivotal. With Spurs ten goals better off, we cannot assume being level on points will save us unless we can dramatically swing the numbers in three games, a very unlikely and probably virtually impossible task at this stage.

That’s why the fixture list matters as much as the points. West Ham’s final three are brutally defined; Arsenal at home, Newcastle away, and Leeds at home. Tottenham’s closing schedule is Leeds at home, Chelsea away, and Everton at home. Both of us have two home games but on paper, (was it Brian Clough who once said games are played on grass not paper?) Spurs have the gentler run-in, while West Ham must find a way to take something from the league leaders and a recently resurgent Newcastle before a finale that could become a do-or-die game. I hope we still have a chance to escape when the final game comes around but it might be all over by then.

First comes Arsenal, top of the league and still with their own title business to finish. That cuts both ways for West Ham. Arsenal’s quality raises the difficulty level, but the stakes can also tighten a contender’s legs, especially in a hostile away environment. For the Hammers, the aim does not have to be perfect football; it has to be a plan that keeps the game alive, stay compact, manage the first 20 minutes, and give the fans a reason to believe that a point (or more) is possible. A defeat coupled with a Tottenham win over Leeds could almost be curtains for us. The deficit would then be four points, which with the goal difference taken into account would require winning the last two games and hoping Tottenham don’t manage more than one point from their last two.

If we still have a chance of survival when we reach the final game then that closing match at home to Leeds with a home crowd, familiar surroundings, and an opponent with less to play for could still be interesting. But final-day games are notorious for ignoring logic. If survival comes down to 90 minutes, West Ham will want to arrive with as much control over the narrative as possible, and I can’t see that happening under any circumstances. It would be a miracle to arrive here with it in our own hands. At best we would be relying on David Moyes’ Everton to lend a hand.

The reality is that unless we can pick up an improbable four points against Arsenal and Newcastle, which is what I expect Tottenham to get against Leeds and Chelsea then the final game of the season may well be our final game in the Premier League for at least a season and sadly, potentially longer.

Predictive models underline the scale of the task. Opta’s supercomputer has placed West Ham as the likeliest, projecting relegation in roughly three-quarters of its simulations. Deep Block, the Under the Hammers supercomputer, which has been bullish for the last nine games, is more pessimistic now and projects the drop at 93% likely at this stage of the season.

So what does survival likely require? Seven unlikely points might do it. That may not be enough though. Even three wins might not be enough but it probably would be and it would certainly make life interesting! Our chances are very slim but not mathematically hopeless. Not yet anyway. The survival path still exists, the margins are clear, and the incentive could not be sharper. The question is whether we can produce three defining performances before the season runs out of road. If I’m honest I don’t really think we are good enough. You reap what you sow. And sadly the seeds we’ve sown in recent times have produced the harvest that we deserve.

With a visit to Brentford this weekend survival is still in West Ham’s own hands.

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer forecasts what will happen.

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has got it right once again. We beat Everton with a late winner from Callum Wilson. It was a nail-biting last few minutes wasn’t it? We were clinging on to a one goal lead while Spurs were drawing at Wolves, potentially opening the safety gap to four points. Then Spurs went ahead and it was back to two and then Everton equalised and we were back in the bottom three. Then it was almost too late but we did what we should have done earlier and went forward instead of this habit of retreating to hold on to a lead. And this time it worked and with four games to go we are two points to the good again.

Forest had taken the three easiest points of their season when Sunderland capitulated in 37 first half minutes, a disgraceful performance in my book. Leeds are almost, but not yet mathematically out of the relegation equation but three points in their forthcoming game at home to already relegated and Parker-less Burnley could ensure retention of Premier League football for them next season. Forest have daylight, so the smart money it seems is on West Ham and Tottenham arguing over the race to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

If say, Tottenham were to pull off a shock win at Villa who can be inconsistent (losing three of their last six games) and West Ham were to manage three points at Brentford then Forest could be dragged back into it if they fail to win at Stamford Bridge. Only ifs I know but they are still looking over their shoulder. Of course the ideal would be West Ham to win and Forest and Tottenham both to lose! The current position with four games to go:

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	40	+6
Nottingham Forest	16th	39	+5
West Ham	17th	36	+2
Tottenham	18th	34	0

Fixtures remaining (4)

West Ham: Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)

Tottenham: Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)

Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leeds: Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is tough but the away games are against sides not in form. Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious free hit and unlikeliest three points but how are they going to react as the season comes towards a close? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps more winnable than they might have seemed a while ago. Real three point trips? Brentford, for example have now drawn five of their last six games and lost the other one. Newcastle have lost their last four in a row. That leaves the final day game at the London Stadium at home to Leeds.

Spurs have all “pressure fixtures” stacked together. They are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home.

Forest’s difficulty is potentially believing they have done enough already. They may have but Deep Block believes they have the toughest run-in of the four. Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Newcastle is perhaps their easiest game of the four but a final day home game against an in-form Bournemouth team won’t be easy if there is still something to play for. Their five point cushion may seem comfortable at this point but it will become nervous for them if the gap narrows.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most likely to survive because they have points already earned and they have perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as three likely points. The smart money continues to be West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th.

Projecting forward to the final four games Deep Block believes the final table will be:

Team	Position	Points
Leeds	15th	45
Nottingham Forest	16th	42
West Ham	17th	41
Tottenham	18th	40

That gives Tottenham 6 points in the final 4 games, Leeds 5, West Ham 5, and Forest 3. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are akin to guesswork. At least after falling seven points adrift early in 2026 we’ve reached the stage where with four games to go survival is in our own hands. Anything can still happen. And it probably will. COYI!

With Everton visiting the London Stadium this weekend, here is West Ham’s Five Game Survival Path

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has nailed another one. We escaped Selhurst Park with a point. Views differ as to whether or not this was a good point, or whether it was a chance missed to open the gap over Tottenham to four points. Spurs also stalled. Their ridiculous celebrations when they went 2-1 ahead contributed to an additional eight minutes and hence Brighton’s equaliser in time added on. Their own fault you could say. Forest and Leeds took maximum points. That combination matters because with only five to play, the maths are starting to bite. Leeds and Forest have daylight, while West Ham and Tottenham may now be arguing over one chair to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	39	+8
Nottingham Forest	16th	36	+5
West Ham	17th	33	+2
Tottenham	18th	31	0

Fixtures remaining (5)

West Ham: Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Tottenham: Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton
Nottingham Forest: Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)
Leeds: Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is high-variance: Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious near-zero / free hit but how are Arsenal going to react to their lead at the top disappearing? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps “one point is fine, three points is a steal” trips. Brentford, for example have now drawn their last five games whereas Newcastle have lost their last three. The saving grace could be Everton (this weekend) and Leeds at home. Two games where the stadium can drag us over the line, but only if we turn up. We are the only one of the four teams in question who have three of our final five games at home. Could this be an advantage? We certainly really need to win this weekend, and not losing is imperative. If it goes down to the wire as many predict then the final day could be a party or a very nervous affair. It depends what points are in the bank before then.

Spurs have the opposite problem with fewer obvious bankers and loads of “pressure fixtures” stacked together. Wolves away is the gateway; lose or draw that and Spurs are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home. If they are to survive they probably need to turn ‘not losing’ into winning.

Forest’s difficulty is top-heavy, and Deep Block believes they may have the toughest run-in of the four. Sunderland, Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Their five point cushion may seem good at this point but if West Ham and Tottenham can win at the weekend and they lose then it may become nervous for them too.

Leeds have the biggest cushion and the game against Burnley at home could virtually clinch safety. They still have a big say with visits to Spurs and /West Ham so it’s not quite a done deal yet but very close to it.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most survivable profiles because they have points already earned and perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as “gettable” without squinting too hard. The battle line is West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th. West Ham’s path is clearer if they can win home ground fixtures against Everton and Leeds and treat Brentford and Newcastle as bonus territory. Spurs’ path is narrower. If they don’t beat Wolves away, they’re basically asking to hit an improbable points target and hope that everyone else plays along. If they beat Wolves though and West Ham don’t win then it changes again.

Looking at their last five games and projecting forward to the final five then it would seem very simple. Forest have collected 9 points, Leeds 8 points, West Ham 8 points and Tottenham 2 points. On that basis, Tottenham remain by far the likeliest to finish 18th unless they finally turn a draw and loss streak into a run of wins starting immediately. But we all know it doesn’t work like that. Football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are perhaps even more unpredictable. Anything can still happen. COYI!