The fixtures computer has celebrated the passing of the last international break of the year with a set of blockbuster matches for Saturday afternoon including Sheffield United – Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest – Brighton, Luton – Crystal Palace, and of course West Ham’s visit to Burnley. It promises to be an inspiring weekend of elite level football.
The Hammers have been uncharacteristically lucky with injuries so far this season. But, as news filtered back from the international camps, it looked like that was about to change . Michail Antonio, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus all picking up worrying injuries – and Vladimir Coufal mixing up the moves to the Macarena in a Czech nightclub. Coufal reprising the famous Moore and Greaves Blackpool nightclub incident of 1971. Let’s hope that doesn’t turn out to be this season’s 3rd round draw.
Fortunately, the injuries to Bowen and Kudus do not appear to be as bad as first feared, and both should be available this afternoon. Antonio, however, is likely to be side-lined for some time. This should mean that the Hammers will start today with the same eleven that took the field against Nottingham Forest.
The injury scares have brought the ludicrous striker situation back into sharp focus. The negligence of starting a Premier League season with only Antonio and Danny Ings as your recognised strikers is truly astounding. And considering that both are well towards the sunset of their careers, it is doubly baffling. Thankfully, Bowen’s goal-scoring form has offered some compensation. If he can maintain the current rate of return he is on track to set a West Ham Premier League record for goals scored in a season – Paolo Di Canio’s 16 goals in 1999/2000 is the target to beat.
There has already been a slew of striker transfer stories online in advance of the January window – and as usual they range from the mundane to the ridiculous. However, the club’s room for manoeuvre may well be limited by the dreaded Financial Fair Play, which popped up in the week to bite Everton on the bottom. Perhaps FFP provides a blessing in disguise and forces the club to abandon its policy of buying expensive flops and selling them at a loss and rely instead on discovering young unknown talent. Over to you, Tim!
Everton’s ten-point deduction (should it stand on appeal) would seem to make it almost impossible for the Hammers to become embroiled in a relegation battle this season. With all three of the promoted sides struggling for points, the only team now below the Toffees are today’s opponents, Burnley.
Having romped away with last season’s Championship, Burnley’s return to the Premier League has proved to be a rude awakening. All four of their points have been won away from Turf Moor and defeat today would make it seven in a row at home. Of course, the patron saint of lost causes is always happy to serve up a game against West Ham in such desperate circumstances: “You haven’t scored in in a season and a half, Neal Maupay, let me see what I can do!”
The Hammers have saved up some of their worst ever recent performances for games against the Clarets. A humiliating 3-0 thrashing in November 2019 and a home defeat by the same score in March 2018 – the game that prompted the London Stadium pitch invasion – spring to mind. Burnley are a very different proposition under the guidance of Vincent Kompany, but the omens are ominous.
The Clarets are one of only three teams in the Premier League to have conceded more goals than West Ham to date. The other two are Bournemouth and Sheffield United. That must be an uncomfortable statistic for the resilient defence obsessed David Moyes. It is interesting to compare our position after the opening 12 games of the current campaign against 2022/23. Last season a win against Bournemouth in Matchweek 12 took us up to 10th place – it would be our highest position all season – having scored 11 and conceded 12. This term, there are three more points on the board, while the team have scored 21 and conceded 22. So, has something changed in the Moyesball bag of tricks? Or can the differences be explained by individual performances?
It is difficult to put a finger on any drastic tactical change as it still comes across as the usual cautious and unadventurous fare. But if there is anyvariation, it is that the ‘low block’ of ten men behind the ball at all times has become more relaxed. More players are allowed to stay forward to assist with counter attacks. But the slightly higher press that has replaced the low block appears to be a haphazard, half-hearted affair. Despite the valiant efforts of Edson Alvarez in patrolling in front of the back four, opponents have been able to muster many more goalscoring opportunities.
At the other end of the pitch, West Ham are close to claiming back their crown as set piece supremo’s. Much of that is down to the extraordinary delivery from James Ward-Prowse plus the return to goalscoring form of Tomas Soucek. There is a trade-off from having JWP and Soucek in the side in that both have limitations in open play. If the two must play together, it works better when JWP has greater freedom in a more advanced role – not as part of a defensive midfield pivot.
The Hammers are now blessed with more creativity than they have for some time in the form of Kudus and Lucas Paqueta. Kudus is clearly still getting used to football in England and apart from a few special moments is more about potential than being a consistent performer. Paqueta is always looking for the unexpected and at times this can be frustrating when first time flicks go astray. Personally, he is the type if player I love to watch but would prefer him to keep his tricks to the attacking half of the pitch.
So, what to make of today’s game. The combination of Burnley’s shocking home run and the historic obliging nature of West Ham is a concern. On the other hand, from what I have seen of Burnley they are very vulnerable in the air at set pieces – a weakness that should tip the scales in the Hammers favour. No doubt Moyes will allow the home side most of the possession and it might just pay off on this occasion. COYI!