March 2024 – Under The Hammers

West Ham travel to Newcastle in the early Saturday kick-off with both teams still in the mix for a European place next season.

I enjoyed Geoff’s article published yesterday as always and smiled at his made-up statistic that West Ham haven’t won away in an early Saturday kick off against a team in stripes. How can he have forgotten our Division One trip to Huddersfield on Saturday 17^th January 1925 when in an early kick off we came away with a 2-1 victory with goals from our all time leading goalscorer Vic Watson (326 goals) and Jimmy Ruffell, fourth on the all-time list (166 goals)? Only Geoff Hurst (249) and John Dick (177) were in the same league as those two when it came to scoring goals for West Ham.

I’m not making up that game – Huddersfield did wear stripes, it was a Saturday and we won the game 2-1. I’m not certain regarding the early kick off, but I’ve seen pictures of the Leeds Road ground (where they played until 1994) with floodlights being put up in 1963, and therefore assume that a mid-January kick-off in 1925 must have been early as it would have been too dark to kick off at 3pm. By the way, that game was even more remarkable in that it was Huddersfield’s only defeat in their last 27 games of the 1924-25 season when they finished up as Division One champions, the second of three consecutive top flight titles, the first club to achieve that feat.

Some famous games that I remember against today’s opponents, Newcastle, include a 5-5 draw in 1960 with five different West Ham goalscorers. They certainly knew how to score goals in those days. That season we finished 16^th (out of 22) and scored 77 goals but conceded 88!

In April 1968 just after Easter we beat them 5-0 with a Trevor Brooking hat-trick in his first season in the team, which I believe to be his only ever hat-trick in his 528 games for us. Unless of course you know different?

In a Division Two match in late March 1979 we again beat them 5-0 with three of the five goals coming from our full backs, John McDowell with two, and Frank Lampard.

I’ve written before about our 8-1 victory against them in our record-breaking season of 1985-86. The game was notable for an Alvin Martin hat-trick scored against three different goalkeepers. Glenn Roeder was playing for Newcastle on that Monday night in April 1986.

In January 2011 (in the middle of the Avram Grant season when we were relegated) we lost 5-0 at St James Park with a Leon Best hat-trick and a goal from Kevin Nolan, who came to us in the following summer and helped us to promotion the next season. It was only 13 years ago but some names of players wearing claret and blue that day (either starting or on the bench) – Tal Ben Haim, Radoslav Kovac, Frederic Piquionne, Zavon Hines, Victor Obinna, Ruud Boffin, Valon Behrami, Pablo Barrera. Do you remember all of them?

On 15^th August 2021 we won 4-2 at St James Park in an early kick off (the first game of the season?), I think Newcastle were wearing stripes, but it didn’t quite meet Geoff’s criteria as it was a Sunday not a Saturday. We came from behind twice with goals from Cresswell, Benrahma, Soucek and Antonio.

Since that game three of the four meetings have been drawn including the 2-2 draw at the London Stadium in October. The other game was an embarrassing 5-1 home defeat in April last year.

At least the international breaks are now over for another season – how I do hate how they interrupt the season! I rarely watch internationals outside tournaments as friendlies are meaningless with endless substitutions spoiling the ‘entertainment’. I made an exception this week to watch Jarrod Bowen starting and starring. Surely he will make the England squad for the Euros, as understudy to Saka on the right?

The Moyes debate continues to rumble on with fans on social media groups tearing into each other with opposing views of should he stay or should he go. If we do opt for a new manager next season I’d love to see us go for Kieran McKenna who has performed wonders at Ipswich in this season and last. After bringing them up from League One in his first season in charge, their record this season has been superb, keeping up at the top with the ‘big boys’ who received their parachute payments (Leicester, Leeds and Southampton). Ipswich have lost just five of their last 58 games playing a brand of football pleasing to the eye.

I live in Bury St Edmunds in Suffolk where Ipswich are the most supported club locally. The ‘buzz’ created in the last couple of seasons is quite something. He has first class coaching credentials as assistant to Mourinho at Manchester United and I believe he will continue to be one of the up and coming coaches / managers in the years to come. Some believe we should go for a ‘name’ such as Potter who is always banded about. McKenna for me.

Newcastle have a long injury list for this game, although some are due back. We will be under strength too with Alvarez suspended (we’ve never won a game this season when he hasn’t been playing) and Paqueta, Aguerd and Kudus are apparently being assessed or monitored. The Geordies have a relatively poor defensive record but they do know how to score goals. They are one of the teams still in the mix for a European place next season. I never feel that confident when we go up to the North-East so I won’t hold my breath for a victory to match the one on the opening day of the 2021/22 season. But I’ll forecast a high scoring draw, although perhaps not 5-5! What are the chances?

High Toon: Are West Ham brave enough to see off injury ravaged Geordies in Saturday’s early kick-off?

Premier League football is back once again as the Hammers face a succession of six season defining games in the next twenty days. It all kicks-off at Newcastle!

Where were we? Football’s all about stop and start these days isn’t. Like waking suddenly and not being sure whether it’s a VAR review you’re waiting for or it’s the middle of another international break. I feel about as confused as David Moyes looks on the sidelines when his team have just gone a goal behind and he is thinking about what game changing substitution to make – “Ben Johnson for Lucas Paqueta, that should do it!”

With all the interruptions we now have, the need for a Recap button like on Netflix is becoming all the more necessary. I always believed Recaps were intended for Americans with short attention spans due to the regularity of commercial breaks. Now I am starting to see the point. Fortunately, we have the clickbait fan-sites to rely on where every story has five or six paragraphs of ‘season recap’ before the big headline reveal at the very end. The one where a reliable journalist provides a major update that should West Ham win the Europa League, then the manager may be offered a new contract. Who knew?

So, at the end of the last episode, West Ham were left hanging on to 7^th place in the Premier League and occupying one of the coveted European qualification slots. Except that each of the four teams below would overtake them if they were to win their games in hand. Gripping stuff! There now follows a run of six games in 20 days which will play a large part in determining the season’s outcome and the club’s immediate future. By the end of those matches, the Hammers could still be 7^th and in a Europa League semi-final; have slipped down to 11^th and bowed out of Europe; or stumbled along somewhere in between. Personally, I am at the lower end of expectations.

The upcoming league fixtures include two of the other teams targeting 7^th place – Newcastle and Wolves; one looking for Champions League qualification – Tottenham; and an unpredictable side who are close to the top of the Premier League form table – Fulham. It’s a tough run to juggle around the two-legged Bayer Leverkusen showdown with just a comically thin squad at your disposal – a squad whose numbers were deliberately run down.

The first of the matches is the weekend’s long trip north to Newcastle for the early Saturday midday kick-off. The Geordies recent form has been as indifferent as the Hammers with both teams having taken eight points from their last six matches. The two teams have the worst defensive records in the top ten and the hosts have been riddled with injuries. In theory it is evenly matched.

But we should be well aware by now of the Moyesiah’s mindset. Newcastle are a big club in his eyes, while his Hammers are wee, sleekit, cowrin, tim’rous beasties – prepared to be overawed and uninspired. The only option is to ramp up the low-block setting to maximum and hope for the best. That most other clubs have identified the Geordies defensive weaknesses – the dangerously high line, the space between midfield and defenders, Dan Burn, the reticence of stand-in keeper, Dubravka to sweep outside his box – will likely be lost on Moyes.

What is needed to beat Newcastle is bravery, not caution. For all their defensive frailties, only the top four have outscored them this season, and they have scored in every home league fixture so far. Is a plan built on shutting them out going to work? If we should score first, will the usual tactic of retreating deeper and deeper make any sense? The best laid plans of Moyes and men often go catastrophically wrong.

Not helping the West Ham cause is the enforced absence of Edson Alvarez, serving a two game ban for picking up ten yellow cards. A good effort by Edson who trails only Palhinha of Fulham in the top flight yellow card stakes. In his absence, the onus shifts to the desolate Kalvin Phillips as the only potential active ball-winning force in the centre of midfield. Little chance of either Tomas Soucek or James Ward-Prowse fulfilling that role. Whatever happened to that Flynn Downes?

The other doubt is Mohammed Kudus who pulled out the Ghana squad for their friendlies against Uganda and Nigeria. Hopefully, this was precautionary measure (or because he didn’t fancy it) rather than a real injury. Assuming he is fit it should be the same team that started against Villa other than the Phillips for Alvarez switch. If Kudus is out, then JWP comes in somewhere.

It was good to see Jarrod Bowen put in his best showing yet in an England jersey on Tuesday. It should certainly improved his chances of winning an all-expenses paid summer break to the Euro benches – as long as the German’s haven’t already laid out their towels on it. More importantly, we need Jarrod to get his Premier League scoring boots back on. He remains two goals short of matching Paolo Di Canio’s record of 16 in a season, with only nine matches left to do it in. Bowen has only scored in one league game in 2024, although that was the Brentford hat-trick.

Saturday’s hosts have a long list of injuries. Botman, Joelinton, Pope, Wilson, and Miley are all injured while Tonali is on long term suspendsion. There are also doubts over the fitness of Trippier, Barnes, and Livramento and late tests will be required. The question springs to mind as to whether high rates of injuries are simply bad luck or a reflection of training methods that are far too intensive to sustain for long periods.

I was once quite a fan of Eddie Howe in his Bournemouth days where he did an amazing job in getting them promoted to the Premier League for the first time. But there is something cynical about him – and his henchman Jason Tindall – that is difficult to warm to, despite a positive approach to how the game is played. When Howe is inevitably sacked before Newcastle win any trophies, I hope he doesn’t end up at the London Stadium. Never trust a man whose face is way too small for his head.

In the circumstances this is a winnable game, but only with the right attitude and positive approach. If our forward players are on song they should be able pull Newcastle all over the place. But past performances have seen attacking intent only in short flashes, rarely sustained over 90 minutes. Playing on the front foot from start to finish doesn’t appear to exist in the manager’s toolkit. The Moyesball approach relies heavily on opponents fluffing their lines in front of goal, or man-of-the-match performances from Alphonse Areola and VAR.

West Ham have never won away in an early Saturday kick-off against a team playing in stripes. I can see that run continuing this weekend. Actually, I just made that last bit up but I’m sure Peter Drury will know the answer. A score draw, I think. COYI!

They Think It’s All Over: Not Until VAR’s Had A Good Look It’s Not

VAR has become a disaster and is spoiling football as a spectacle. Meanwhile, David Moyes lack of courage against Aston Villa ensures that three points are turned into one.

Little did I know when I had a whinge about VAR prior to the Freiburg game that it was possible for matters to become even worse. The idiots at PGMOL have finally lost the plot – clearly and obviously. What was originally conceived as a second pair of eyes to eliminate the most glaring of on-field refereeing errors, has turned into a system that retrospectively searches the slightest reason for a goal to be disallowed.

There is an old saying that ‘what gets measured gets done’ and this is the approach VAR has been allowed to take. Rather than using the technology to fix existing issues they have taken a solution in search of a problem that no-one knew they had. Because most refereeing decisions are subjective anyway the focus has turned to those that are more obvious – fractional offside calls and balls hitting arms – and where CSI Stockley Park will do all it can to find the evidence for you.

Someone should bang the PGMOL’s collective heads together over their interpretations of the offside and handball rules. Let’s not forget that offside was originally introduced to deter goal-hanging. A more practical definition that acknowledges that context, and either only looks at player’s feet or requires a threshold of clear daylight needs to be found.

It would be difficult to imagine that anyone could create a bigger mess with handball even if they tried. The guidance flip-flops from week to week and with different interpretations depending on whether you are attacking or defending. Most of the issues revolve around which at one point was removed as a consideration but is slowly making its way back depending on circumstances. And I have never liked the idea of rules being interpreted differently depending where on the pitch offences occur.

A pet hate of mine s to see defenders adopting the Riverdance pose rather than making an attempt to block an attacker. Of course, there are going to be cases where a defender uses arms to make themselves a bigger target but in any sporting endeavour arms are essential for power and balance. How about an Olympic 100 metre sprint where athletes must keep their hands by their sides? In the same way there have been cases of attackers deliberately playing the ball at a defender’s hands. These are the areas where officials should be directing their judgement. And sorry, but it will be subjective. To aim for objectivity by changing the rules in pursuit of an elusive aim only ends with a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

Ruling a goal out just because the ball struck an arm or hand in the build up is my greatest irritant with the modern game. I’m convinced it was never a pre-VAR area of contention, but iso one that has been one invented solely for the technology. Again, there will be occasions where players intentionally seek to gain advantage by use of the hand but that is also for the officials to determine.

But above and beyond all this micro-analysis of events is the impact VAR is having on the spontaneity of the game. The attraction of football is that is a simple and fast-moving game – something VAR has made immeasurably worse. It is no longer possible to get lost in the moment celebrating a goal when you know it is being subjected to review for the slightest misdemeanour. This weekend it reached peak absurdity by taking almost six minutes to check whether a clear and obvious error had been made.

There is a case for VAR working in the background to check major incidents, but its current scope is not fit for purpose. How much more refreshing it is to watch a Championship game where it doesn’t feature. Its introduction has failed to make the match experience superior for players or supporters. In fact, it is quite the reverse.

Personally, I would like to see VAR suspended at the end of the season until a more suitable implementation and supervision can be proposed. The PGMOL have demonstrated they are not competent to be in control of VAR. Officials should not be the centre of attention in a football match but that is the situation that has been engineered.

The game itself against Aston Villa was classic David Moyes in a microcosm. In the opening half, a well executed high press against the visitor’s defence forced a series of errors that handed the advantage to the Hammers. There was an intensity that picked up from where it left off the previous Thursday. A smart cross from Vladimir Coufal and a brave header from Michail Antonio put West Ham ahead, and the only disappointment at the break was that there was still only one goal in it.

Understandably, Unai Emery made changes at half-time, but it looked like the Hammers had extended their lead early on – until VAR intervened. After that the home side slowly started to retreat and abandon further thought of scoring a second. What had been Moyes instructions during the interval? Emery made more substitutions and now had two attack minded full-backs on the pitch in Cash and Digne. How would Moyes react? Look to exploit that extra space down the flanks and kill the game off, or sit back and invite Villa to attack at will. Sitting back to protect a 1-0 lead has not worked in the past for Moyes’ team, but perhaps it will one day in the future.

We were left in no doubt as to the manager’s mindset when he replaced Antonio with Ben Johnson with the best part of 30 minutes still to play. Possibly the most inexplicable substitution ever and a sure way to undo the good work of the first half. But Moyes instinct is always caution before courage with the low block his safe place when the chips are down. Just like the salmon who has no option but to return to its breeding grounds, caution is programmed into the Moyes DNA and he will never change. That’s why he must go.

A Villa equaliser was inevitable and once they had scored the feeling was that they would go on to win the game. West Ham had little ambition for either attacking or retaining possession by then. So, the late added time flurry where James Ward-Prowse should have scored, and the second VAR incident occurred came as a huge surprise.

We should also mention the performance of shocking Australian referee, Jarred Gillett. This is the guy, remember, who when on VAR duty disallowed the Maxwell Cornet goal against Chelsea. How this drongo keeps getting return gigs shows how thinly the referee gene pool is spread. Awarding a tame foul on the keeper before the disallowed Kudus effort, booking Edson Alvarez for being a victim and no consistency in the application of the ‘delaying the restart’ diktat were the highlights of his ineptitude. Having booked Dinos mere minutes earlier for kicking the ball away, he gave Zaniolo a free pass for a similar offence as it would have meant a second yellow.

International breaks and suspensions now mean Alvarez can enjoy an extended holiday until the Wolves game on April 6. As the only defensive midfield player who actively hunts the ball down, he will be sorely missed. An opportunity for Kalvin Phillips to step up and earn his corn, perhaps. COYI!

Aston Villa visit the London Stadium to face West Ham in the Claret and Blue derby

Before last week’s article I developed a programme to anticipate where West Ham would finish in this season’s Premier League final table. This week I provide an update based upon what happened last weekend, including our unfortunate two points dropped in the 2-2 draw with Burnley at the London Stadium.

There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all now have ten games remaining apart from Chelsea with eleven. I have discounted the top five in the Premier League as I believe they have enough points and decent enough run-ins to maintain those places. The teams from 6^th to 11^th are now:

6. Manchester United – 47 points (28 games)
7. West Ham – 43 points (28)
8. Brighton – 42 points (28)
9. Wolves – 41 points (28)
10. Newcastle – 40 points (28)
11. Chelsea – 39 points (27)

You may recall that I considered the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the current position in the league table of their remaining opponents. The degree of difficulty factor suggested that Newcastle have the easiest run-in.

I then took it further and predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, categorised into teams being faced with a current position of 1-3, 4-5, 6-11, 12-17, and 18-20 given different weightings, whether or not the remaining games were home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other (i.e. the 6 teams being considered).

Some of the results last weekend were as expected, the only ones that were not were West Ham who were expected to beat Burnley, and Newcastle who were expected to draw at Chelsea based on the criteria used. This therefore adjusts the forecast for the final standings at the end of the season which is now:

6. Manchester United – 61 points
7. Newcastle – 56 points
8. Chelsea – 56 points
9. Wolves – 55 points
10. West Ham – 55 points
11. Brighton – 51 points

Chelsea have now risen to a predicted eighth placed finish whilst West Ham have fallen to tenth. As I wrote last time, it’s just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling is that perhaps tenth is just about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors.

I noted this week that the Opta Supercomputer forecast is that West Ham will finish eighth on 55.47 points. (I’m not sure where we’d get the 0.47 points from!). Their programming must have some similarities to mine based on their figures. I will look back at the end of the season to compare The Bennett model versus the Opta Supercomputer at this stage to make a comparison.

This is how Opta see the Premier League ending up…

6. Manchester United – 62.41
7. Newcastle United – 58.35
8. West Ham United – 55.47
9. Chelsea – 54.84
10. Brighton & Hove Albion – 54.61

On Thursday night we gave Freiburg a bit of a thrashing which on the face of it would compare the relative merits of the Premier League versus the Bundesliga. Seventh in the Premier League were shown to be massively superior to eighth in the Bundesliga based upon this last 16 tie. This was also a significant victory for English clubs who are now on course to claim a fifth spot in next season’s Champions League.

Two additional performance places are up for grabs due to the new format in 2024-25. They will go to the countries with the best average performance in all the European competitions this season. Before Thursday night Italy were top with Germany second and England third, but our win meant that England narrowed the gap on Germany.

Coefficient Rankings:

1. Italy – 17.714 (4 teams remaining)
2. Germany – 16.357 (3 teams remaining)
3. England – 16.250 (5 teams remaining)
4. France – 14.750 (3 teams remaining)
5. Spain – 14.437 (3 teams remaining

We’ve now drawn another German side in the quarter finals and this time it will be much tougher as we face the might of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the runaway leaders in Germany who have won 21 and drawn 4 of their 25 games, being the only side in the top 5 leagues in Europe to still be unbeaten at this stage of the season.

Having said that they came mightily close to being eliminated from the competition on Thursday night when they trailed Karabakh (of Azerbaijan) 2-1 on the night and 4-3 on aggregate as the tie reached the 90^th minute of the second leg. Leverkusen then scored twice in the time that was added to ensure progression. That game surely gives us some hope in the quarter final tie doesn’t it?

Also, if England get the second spot in the ‘performance table’ and the FA Cup winners finish in the top seven, then it would appear that England would have five places in next season’s Champions League, two places in the Europa League and the team finishing eighth would take the Europa Conference League spot. All the more reason to continue to push for a high enough spot in the Premier League, apart from the kudos and the prize money on offer of course.

And what about the Kudus goal where he ran from the middle of our half, dribbled through the Freiburg team on an incredible run then clinically finished with his so-called weaker foot? That got me thinking of the best goals I’ve seen us score at the London Stadium. In no particular order it joins Payet’s amazing dribble through the Middlesbrough defence, and Andy Carroll’s wonderful volley against Crystal Palace. There are others to consider I’m sure. What ones have I missed?

Great goals that they were, none of them compare in my eyes to Martin Peters’ goal against Leicester in November 1968, Trevor Sinclair’s goal against Derby on Boxing Day 2001, or Harry Redknapp’s goal v QPR, also in November 1968 (just two weeks before Martin Peters goal).

I’ve written before about the 1968/69 season and a golden period of four consecutive and absolutely brilliant entertaining games at Upton Park in the Autumn of 1968. When we faced Sunderland on October 19^th we’d come off the back of a run of nine winless games. We ended that run thrashing Sunderland 8-0 (the game where Geoff Hurst scored six). A fortnight later in a great game we defeated QPR 4-3, which included the Redknapp goal I referred to above, and a magnificent Bobby Moore goal frequently shown on the screens at Upton Park before games. The game with the Martin Peters wonder goal came in a 4-0 win over Leicester two weeks after that. And finally move on another fortnight for a 2-1 win over Manchester City, the first scored by Geoff Hurst, a near post header from a Martin Peters cross, and the second a carbon copy but this time a near post header by Martin Peters from a Geoff Hurst cross. They could do it both ways around and in this match they did. Those were the days. Wonderful memories.

As the game today is against Aston Villa an abiding memory from fixtures against them is a penalty awarded to us in the last minute of the FA Cup quarter final in March 1980. Up stepped Ray Stewart, the perfect penalty taker when under the greatest pressure to score. He slammed it high into the net in front of the South Bank, we won the game 1-0 and went on to win the FA Cup, the last team to do so as a second-tier side. We’ve had some great penalty takers, in no particular order the best ones in my opinion were Ray Stewart, Julian Dicks, Geoff Hurst, Mark Noble, Johnny Byrne, John Bond, and Paolo Di Canio.

Aston Villa are one of those teams that we have beaten more often than been defeated by. The recent record is strongly in our favour. The last 11 meetings (since and including Boxing Day 2015) – West Ham have won six, four have been drawn, and Villa have only won once – that was this season when they won 4-1 last October. The overall record in history shows West Ham with 45 wins, Villa with 39, and 35 draws.

Two worrying statistics: We have won four and drawn four of our last eight home league games against Villa, and Villa have only ever beaten us once both home and away in a single season in the Premier League. How often do impressive runs like that come to an end?

Our record in Sunday games that follow Thursday evening games is not the best but at least this time Villa are in the same boat, as they had a Europa Conference League game on the same night that we put five past Freiburg when they beat Ajax 4-0 to win by that aggregate score and progress into their first European Quarter Final for 25 years. We will be hoping to improve on our record of dropping points in five of the seven Sunday games that have followed a Europa League game.

Villa’s impressive England striker Watkins is always a threat but he is battling to recover from a gashed knee to be fit for the game. Their captain John McGinn is banned following the reckless tackle last weekend that got him sent off against Tottenham. Emerson has been missing for a couple of games but he may be fit to resume at left back. Cornet is the only definite absentee – apparently he has a hamstring injury. Will we miss him? Is he still with us?

I wonder if Danny Ings will get a run out at some stage? If by chance he scores a goal he would become only the third player to score a Premier League goal against four of his former teams – Peter Crouch and Nicolas Anelka are the others. We will hope that Lucas Paqueta starts of course and has calmed down following his substitution in the week – all our 12 league wins this season have come with him in the starting eleven whereas we’ve failed to win any of the seven games where he hasn’t been involved.

Villa are impressive going forward with only Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal scoring more goals in the league so far this season. I cannot see them failing to score which will mean that we will need to be positive, and all four of Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen and a fit Antonio will need to be firing at the same level as they were on Thursday night. Can we win the game? I hope so but it won’t be easy. I’ll go for a 2-2 draw for the second weekend in a row.

One Man, One Goal, One Mission: Is Ings The Key To Overturning Freiburg Deficit

West Ham have enough firepower to come through the Europa League tie with Freiburg. But winning games by more than one goal has not been a Moyes speciality.

West Ham’s last two games – defeat at Freiburg and the draw against Burnley – had the Moyesiah’s cautious fingerprints all over them. The brief barnstorming opening against Brentford now just a rounding error in the history of the season. A season which any sane West Ham supporter would want to end with the manager’s final farewell.

A point I have laboured at length on these pages is that the problem with Moyes is not about results but with performances – the way he approaches game. The trip to Freiburg was the perfect example. An unspectacular, mid-table opponent who had been beaten twice in the group stage and the overriding priority was to avoid defeat. This wasn’t a first leg away at the Nou Camp. And even after going a goal down, the response was to bring on another defensive midfielder. Never mind looking for an equaliser, let’s make sure we don’t concede again. The master tactician’s only attacking change was to introduce Michail Antonio in the 91^st minute.

Anyone baffled by events in Germany would have been close to a breakdown when the teams were announced for Sunday’s league game. The cunning plan for what should have been a routine win against basement dwelling opposition was to set up with a bank of three slow defensive midfielders. Who could have guessed that it would allow Burnley to give us a footballing lesson in the opening 45 minutes. The resting of Edson Alvarez given his yellow card position was understandable but what was in the manager’s mind.

The half-time changes needed were obvious and completely changed the urgency on the pitch and the atmosphere in the stadium. And the later introduction of Danny Ings almost won it for the Hammers. It is fair to say that Ings time at West Ham has been disastrous in the role that he has been asked to play. And after putting in a good performance at Sheffield United he was immediately sidelined and rarely seen again. You’re either one of Moyes boys or you’re not.

From the body language at the break, I had a sneaking feeling that it was John Heitinga’s work behind the early substitutions. It just seemed too revolutionary for Moyes who was slumped in his seat.

There is an amusing moment on the TV commentary where Tony Gale was asked by the commentator if the West Ham fans were justified in wanting Moyes out. You could sense him squirming and sweating like a small-time villain under oath in the witness box as he ummed, ahhed and waffled in search of a diplomatic answer. Finally admitting that with the players available it might be possible to take more risks.

Each of the recent games involved the now customary VAR talking points. Both potential handball penalty appeals that were not awarded to West Ham. It is extremely rare to see a referee go across to the pitch-side monitor and then stick with his original decision in the Freiburg game, but no surprise it happened in a Hammer’s game. With the Burnley incident I’m convinced VAR are under orders not to spend any time looking at incidents so close to the final whistle, especially where the ball is still in play.

I don’t have any sense that VAR is getting better with age and experience. Trying to think back to the golden pre-technology days, I don’t recall many being up in arms because a striker’s shoulder blade was offside or that the ball had brushed someone’s knuckle immediately before a goal was scored. The pain points (as I remember them) were around penalty calls (inside or outside the box) and the more obvious offside decisions that had been missed. The authorities have made up a whole new set of rules as an excuse to use the technology. As a believer in the adage that the best referee is the one you don’t notice, I can’t help thinking that VAR has gone to their heads – believing they are part and parcel of the entertainment. It won’t be long before Howard Webb appears in the stands at big games to reveal VAR decisions with a Caeser like thumbs-up/ thumbs-down signal.

It is blatantly obvious that the team to face Freiburg in the second leg needs to be similar to the one that started the second half against Burnley. Lukasz Fabianski in goal perhaps, Jarrod Bowen back out on the right, Lucas Paqueta in the middle behind the striker and Mohammed Kudus on the left. The dilemma is whether to start with Ings or Antonio in the striker role. With Freiburg likely to be sitting back the predatory skills of Ings might be preferably, as long as he is not left isolated. I am sure we will see them both at some point of the evening. I’ve a feeling Ings will be the evening’s unlikely hero, assuming Moyes makes the correct call.

The unfortunate Kudus draws the short straw in this lineup as the person picked to play out of position. The left-wing berth preventing him from cutting inside and shoot on goal.

It is difficult to see any circumstances where it is a good idea for Tomas Soucek and JWP to start in the same midfield. Although both have specific skills their overall contribution in open play is poor. Perhaps a team can carry one, but not both.

Picking the defensive lineup is also problematical on current form and injuries. If Emerson is out injured the only alternative seems to be Aaron Creswell who too easily loses concentration these days. In the centre, Zouma is crocked, Aguerd has lost all confidence, and Oggy has mysteriously disappeared – after two clean sheet appearances against Arsenal and Brighton he has played just one minute of football. Personally, I would opt for Oggy and Dinos in the following line-up:

Fabianski, Coufal, Mavropanos, Ogbonna, Cresswell, Alvarez, Soucek, Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus, Ings

If Moyes team-sheet doesn’t reflect this, he should be given his bus fare and sent home before kick-off.

Occasionally, there are fleeting thoughts entering my head that it wouldn’t be so bad if we lost this one. Not if it means getting rid of the manager. But once the game starts, I only want victory, no matter what. The reality is that the Europa League is all that’s left of the season and hope has to be kept alive for as long as possible. I’m confident we can beat Freiburg but winning games by more than one goal has not been a core competency in recent times. Let’s make it an exception tonight and, please, try to get it done without extra time and penalties. COYI!

Three points against Burnley is imperative if West Ham want to maintain the push to have any chance of a finish in the top six or seven.

Two wins in a row after a horrendous winless run has put us back in the picture to be in with a chance of qualifying for European football for a fourth consecutive season as a result of our league finishing position. It looks as though we will need to finish either sixth or seventh to achieve this. We currently sit in seventh place, two points adrift of Manchester United and two ahead of Newcastle. Our goal difference is similar (just a little inferior) to United, but both of us are a long way short of Newcastle, so if it comes down to it, the Geordies difference is likely to be worth an additional point.

There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all have eleven games remaining apart from Chelsea with twelve. I have discounted the top five in the Premier League as I believe they have enough points and decent enough run-ins to maintain those places. The teams from 6^th to 11^th are therefore:

6. Manchester United 44 points (27 games)
7. West Ham 42 points (27)
8. Newcastle 40 points (27)
9. Brighton 39 points (27)
10. Wolves 38 points (27)
11. Chelsea 36 points (26)

What I have looked at next is the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the current position in the league table of their remaining opponents. The degree of difficulty factor suggests that Newcastle have the easiest run-in with the average positions of opponents as follows:

Newcastle 12.2, Manchester United 11.7, Chelsea 10.6, Wolves 10.0, West Ham 9.5, Brighton 9.0.

I then took it further and predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, categorised into teams being faced with a current position of 1-3, 4-5, 6-11, 12-17, and 18-20 given different weightings, whether or not the remaining games are home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other (i.e. the 6 teams being considered).

The formulas I used gave results as follows: Additional points achieved between now and the end of the season – Chelsea 18 points, Manchester United 17 points, Newcastle 17 points, Wolves 17 points, West Ham 15 points, Brighton 12 points.

The final standings would therefore be:

6. Manchester United – 61 points
7. Newcastle – 57 points
8. West Ham – 57 points
9. Wolves – 55 points
10. Chelsea – 54 points
11. Brighton 51 points

Bookmakers agree with my findings and have Manchester United and Newcastle finishing sixth and seventh. But they also have Brighton and Chelsea above us with West Ham just scraping into the top half in tenth.

It’s just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling is that we’ll be fortunate to do as well as this, perhaps tenth is about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors. If it was that easy then we’d all be very wealthy.

I reckon that to get the 15 points that would give us a chance of qualification we need to beat Burnley, Fulham and Luton, and then collect 6 points from the 6 games against Villa, Newcastle, Tottenham, Wolves, Palace and Chelsea. This could be 2 wins, 1 win and 3 draws or even (very unlikely) 6 draws. Anything more than this would be a bonus. I’ve ruled out getting anything against Liverpool and Manchester City. Even then 15 points might not be enough. But 15 or more points from the position we are in would give us a chance, particularly if we can at least avoid defeat against the other teams involved.

We have 6 home games and 5 away, we face four of the top five, two of the bottom three, three of the other contenders for 6^th and 7^th, plus Fulham and Palace. We need to begin with three points in this round of matches. If we don’t win against Burnley then we will be facing an uphill struggle to qualify. So that’s it – a whole article without mentioning the continuing Moyes In / Moyes Out issue that is still dominating the forums. Can we finish sixth or seventh? What are the chances?

Moyesball Über Alles: West Ham Return To European Action In Germany

After two consecutive Premier League wins, West Ham will be hoping to take their improved fortunes into the business end of the Europa League at Freiburg

Nothing says missing the point better than the pundits who write off disgruntled supporters as ‘moany’ because they dare to see style of play as important (if not more so) than grinding out results. If as supporters all we did was check the score at the end of the game, then maybe we would arrive at the same superficial conclusion as radio talking heads such as Stelling and Sutton. But many of us have more invested in the action than that – and expect more.

If the win against Brentford had hinted at a new spirit of adventure, then the performance at Everton was quick to dispel the idea. It was a return to safe space of caution and negativity that has become the club’s trademark in recent years. Moyesball above all else! Some said that Goodison Park is a difficult place to go and get a result, yet the Toffees have managed to lose half of their home league games this season.

Had it not been for the extraordinary events of added time, the game would have been instantly forgettable. The first 45 minutes was as drab as expected and although it did liven up after the break, it was largely down to the hosts smelling blood. Entering the closing stages, Everton looked to be the only team likely to break the deadlock. But unconvincing finishing and a man-of-the-match display from Alphonse Areola had contrived to keep the scores level. Areola is really up there with the best of keepers when it comes to shot-stopping and instinctive saves. If only he were more commanding in the air!

The Hammers had played their brightest football midway through the first half before apparently losing interest. In the second period they simply dropped deeper and rarely threatened even on the counter. Lucas Paqueta had one of those days which make you question whether the links to Manchester City are real or imaginary. Are the flicks, tricks and first-time passes what Guardiola is looking for in a play-maker? Particularly as a replacement for Bernardo Silva who is all about keeping possession and recycling the ball? And when JWP is dragged deeper and deeper into defensive midfield he becomes largely anonymous. No surprise that both were later withdrawn.

As the game approached added time the best hope was the Hammers holding on for a point. What happened next was way beyond expectations. As the wayward cross from Mohammed Kudus floated behind Tomas Soucek who would have imagined a deft one touch control and the ball being lashed into the net with the outside of the boot. It was an exquisite finish that even the Czech’s peculiar goal celebration could not dampen.

By now it was a case of thinking at least we won’t lose – but the third goal put the icing firmly on the cake. It was the classic counterattack from an opponents mistake in the attacking third. A strong run from Jarrod Bowen and a perfectly timed pass into the path of Edson Alvarez’s gut-busting run was finished with aplomb by the Mexican. Alvarez was the pick of the outfield players all afternoon for me while Soucek made two major game-changing contributions which encapsulated his value to Moyes – one stunning goal and a desperate goal line clearance.

The performance was quintessential Moyesball. And despite everything it was impossible not to rejoice in the last gasp nature of the victory, even allowing for what had gone before. Like a substandard movie rescued by a jaw dropping finale – the third in the Pirates of the Caribbean series, for example.

With just two months of the season remaining the future of David Moyes at the London Stadium continues to teeter on the brink. It could go either way. At one extreme, we finish 6^th and win the Europa League and he has to be given the chance to stay. At the other, we finish 10^th or 11^th and bow out of Europe in or before the quarter-final and he packs his bags. It leaves plenty of room for dithering in between and an extended period of uncertainty. I’d wager we’ve not heard the last of the results versus performances predicament.

This week sees the return of Thursday/ Sunday football with tonight’s visit to Freiburg followed by a home Premier League encounter with Burnley. Being drawn against a side who had been in the same qualification group was a huge disappointment – for Freiburg as well as the Hammers. But it will give the army of away fans the opportunity to visit the Black Forest which was denied to them previously by a UEFA ban.

The biggest concern is one of the unwritten laws of football which states that any team who came out on top in the group stage will always have the tables turned on them during the knockout. I have no evidence to back this up other than paranoia. Much will depend on what the Freiburg coach learned from the two-legged experience of playing against a Moyes side. We are not the most difficult team to work out and frustrate.

Since the last meeting, Freiburg have stumbled along in mid-table Bundesliga obscurity, the lowest scorers in the top half of the table and without a league win in their last seven outings. They did, however, manage a 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich last weekend and had earlier beaten Lens of France over two legs in the Europa League qualifying round.

We are past the stage now where fringe players are given a chance to shine in European games, and I expect Moyes to go close to full strength tonight. The only anticipated changes are Lukasz Fabianski replacing Areola in goal and Nayef Aguerd coming in the fragile Kurt Zouma. Apart from that, it will be as you were.

There is no doubting that nights of European action under the floodlights provide an added gloss to the season. Three consecutive years has been unprecedented – a fourth would be dreamland, but possibly out of reach. Do two consecutive league wins mean we are suddenly a team in form who have turned a corner? Or were they simply hard-won wins against struggling sides that we should expect to beat? The Hammers should be favourites to get through this particular tie but it is difficult to see past Liverpool or Leverkusen as eventual winners.

On Sunday we can look forward to the visit of relegants-elect Burnley to the London Stadium. Did you know that only Burnley and Sheffield United have had fewer touches in the opposition box than West Ham in this season’s Premier League? Could be in line for a pulsating thriller. COYI!

Memories of fixtures against Everton as West Ham visit Goodison Park for the David Moyes derby

Once more an excellent article from Geoff published on Thursday ahead of our trip to Goodison Park this weekend. If you’ve missed it have a read now.

Following Monday night’s welcome victory against a faltering Brentford team I can now stop writing about (record breaking) winless runs. Let’s hope that the game was a sign of things to come in the remaining twelve games of the Premier League. Jarrod Bowen had gone five games without a goal ahead of the game, coinciding with our sequence of eight games in 2024 without a victory, but his well taken hat trick took us back up to eighth in the table. The reality is that we are probably fighting for seventh place and a return once again to the Europa Conference League. To get there I reckon we would need to keep all our key players fit, especially Paqueta, as the records show we can’t win games without him. At this stage it looks like a straight fight between ourselves, Brighton, Wolves, Newcastle and Chelsea for the final European place, but things can change of course.

Do you remember the fanzines that used to be produced and sold outside Upton Park as an alternative to the programmes produced by the club? They began in the 1980s and I remember reading On The Terraces, Home Alone, Fortunes Always Hiding, On A Mission, The Water in Majorca and many more that went by the wayside with the exception of one surviving printed publication that lasted right up to the end of the 2015-16 season. Did you know that Geoff and I used to write for that publication, Over Land and Sea (OLAS – edited by Gary Firmager) right up until the final edition, the last game at Upton Park against Manchester United in 2016? It was a shame that it came to an end and just like West Ham playing at the Boleyn Ground it was the end of an era. From the beginning of the following season after the move to the London Stadium Geoff and I started to write Under The Hammers. I had a look back through and a count up, and this article is the 1,106^th.

I also wrote a book in 2016, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, my personal story of following West Ham, reminiscing about great games, favourite players, games and goals, the triumphs and disappointments, and concentrated on the progress of the team game by game throughout that last remarkable and emotional season. I have been looking back at some of our old writing. I began in February 2015 and had a smile to myself when looking back at an article I wrote prior to the last game of the penultimate season (2014-15) which coincidentally was against this weekend’s opponents Everton. I’ll repeat one paragraph from the piece written prior to the game on 16 May 2015 – can you spot the similarity with the current situation?

“And when it comes down to the debate regarding the manager then fans continue to be divided. It is a permanent feature of forums. Some say that in terms of the league table he has done exactly what was expected, but others say that in terms of entertainment he hasn’t. We’ve had some good performances, a few superb ones, and many disappointing ones. The club’s stance is that nothing will be decided until the end of the season, but reports coming out this week very strongly suggest that Sam won’t be here next season. I’m sure he’ll get plenty of offers elsewhere. Will we be sorry if he goes? Perhaps today will be the last time we see him as our manager?”

We lost that final game of the season 2-1 with a stoppage time winner from Lukaku – remember how many times he used to score against us? For a time Everton were a real bogey team and at one stage we went around eight years without beating them in 90 minutes (16 league games from 2007 to 2016. That miserable run came to an end in March 2016 when we were trailing 2-0 at Goodison Park around 12 minutes from the end of the game, then scored three times though Antonio, Sakho and Payet). In many ways the 2-1 defeat in 2015 summed up that season in a nutshell. It did turn out to be Big Sam’s final game in charge and Slaven Bilic was appointed to be in charge for the final season at Upton Park. Ironically we qualified for Europe by virtue, not of our league placing (12^th), but by coming top of the Premier League’s Fair Play League!

In reminiscing mode I can recall several memorable fixtures against Everton. Our FA Cup replay encounter with them in that penultimate season at Upton Park was one of the most exciting games against them I can remember. The score was 2-2 after extra time and a penalty shootout followed. It was tense as the score reached 8-8 when Adrian stepped up, threw his gloves to the ground and smashed home the winner.

There was also the classic FA Cup semi-final in 1980 when the first game ended 1-1 (Stuart Pearson) and then the replay was at Elland Road four days later. Do you remember Frank Lampard (senior) heading the winner and dancing around the corner flag to take us to Wembley, where, as a second-tier side we defeated Arsenal with Trevor Brooking’s header.

I also remember Trevor Sinclair making his debut for us on a cold January day in 1997 and scoring both goals in a 2-2 draw.

And then in the following year (1998) do you remember the Paolo Di Canio winning a FIFA Fair Play award on his own. At Goodison Park the game was locked at 1-1, the Everton keeper lay prone injured on the ground and the ball was crossed to Paolo who had the simple task of heading it into an empty net. So what did he do? He caught the ball to enable the Everton keeper to be treated. What went through my mind at the time was that the game would have been stopped just as quickly if he had headed it into the goal and we would have won the game, but nonetheless he chose not to and won many plaudits for his action including the Fair Play Award.

I was behind the goal in the Bobby Moore Stand in February 2000 when, with Sasa Ilic in goal (not his finest hour as a goalkeeper in his one and only appearance for us), we lost 4-0 with a terrible defensive performance riddled with errors and a fine game from Everton including a Nicky Barmby hat trick.

Another memory of an Everton game goes back to the 1976/77 season. I was standing on the North Bank (our favourite place to watch the games at Upton Park) when Ronnie Goodlass of Everton scored with a left footed shot past Mervyn Day from (in my memory) near to the dug-out. The game ended 2-2 and I remember it featuring on the Big Match (remember Brian Moore on Sunday afternoons? – those of you of a certain age will). I managed to find Goodlass’ goal on You Tube – it finished fourth in the Big Match Goal of the Season – and it wasn’t quite as far out as I remembered – perhaps about 45 yards.

Some West Ham links in that season’s Goal of the Season competition – an Alan Taylor goal (one of two he scored on the day) at Highbury in a 3-2 win there came third (remember he also scored twice there in our FA Cup quarter final in the cup winning season in 1975). Plus Derek Hales won the goal of the season playing for Charlton following a length of the field move, It was a superb team goal – do you remember he came to us for a short time a season or so later, scoring ten goals in around 20 appearances before being transferred back to Charlton?

Because of their continuing appearance in the top-flight of English football, we have faced them whenever we have been there too. That means that we have probably played games against them more often than most other teams. Looking back at the record books it seems we have played them 150 times in league and cup games – they have won exactly half of them (75), we have come out on top 44 times and 31 have been drawn. In Premier League games they have won more than half, 29 out of 55, we have won 13 and 13 have been drawn. The game earlier in the season at the London Stadium was a drab affair with Calvert-Lewin scoring the only goal of the game. I’m not expecting a goal fest to follow the six goals on Monday night. There has only been one goal in it in six of the last seven fixtures between the two sides. The only exception was our 2-0 victory last season at home when Jarrod Bowen scored two first half goals. While he is in goal-scoring mood perhaps he can nab the winner in this game too. What are the chances?