Month: March 2018

If there is one club that has appeared to shadow the Hammers over recent seasons it is Southampton.  They are the side that West Ham frequently jostle with in the quest for Premier League place money and, unfortunately, more often than not it has been the south coast club that come out on top.  Even in the 2015-16 Payet inspired season, viewed by many supporters as the pinnacle of West Ham’s Premier League achievement, the Saints still snuck in at the last minute to pip the Hammers for the last of the top six berths.  With a distinct possibility that at least one of these two teams will not be playing Premier League football next term this could well be seen as a worrying trend.

Southampton have been much admired in contemporary top flight football for their ability to consistently adjust to losing a string of fine home produced talent (and managers) looking for bigger pay packets and better things.  The merits of their scouting and succession planning have long been applauded but following a series of questionable managerial decisions they now find themselves sitting unceremoniously in the bottom three; two points below the Hammers but with a much superior goal difference.  In a panicked response to this slide and threat to Premier League status the appointment of the serially morose non-performer Mark Hughes surely bring the credibility of the much vaunted succession plan into serious question. The prospect of Moyes versus Hughes in a late season relegation dogfight is unlikely to be the beautiful game’s finest hour (and a half plus stoppages.)

West Ham made the most of the three week break with a holiday to Miami.  The lethargic response to previous warm weather breaks (and my own recollection of the first day back in the office after a week at the beach) does not instil the greatest confidence that today will see an up and at ‘em, all guns a-blazing display from the first whistle.  Just as important for West Ham’s fortunes is whatever goes on around the pitch as well as on it.  After the disgraceful scenes towards the end of the Burnley game the last thing needed is increased heavy handed security meets angry, alcohol fuelled toxic supporters.  What is really needed today, for the good of the club, is for fans to put their personal grievances to one side for the time being and play the part of the crucial twelfth man.  There are no benefits to be had from relegation; no matter what twisted logic is employed.

Head to Head

The last twelve games between West Ham and Southampton have seen four wins apiece and four draws.  In the last twelve played in London, West Ham have won seven and lost four with just a single draw.  Southampton ran out easy 3-0 winners in the only previous meeting at the London Stadium in September 2016.

Team News

West Ham welcome back Arthur Masuaku (following a six match ban) and Edmilson Fernandes (after a mysterious injury) to the match-day squad.  There are concerns with the fitness of Manuel Lanzini and James Collins who picked up knocks during the enforced cup and international break.

Southampton have few injury concerns and ominously welcome Charlie Austin back to their squad.  Since David Sullivan’s ill-judged public comments about Austin he needs no additional motivation to raise his game against the Hammers.  Hopefully, this can be reciprocated and trumped by Marko Arnautovic’s animosity towards Hughes.

Southampton’s major threat often comes via their full/ wing backs, Bertrand and Soares, and West Ham must work hard to keep them occupied and well tracked.  There really needs to be an alternative to the hopeless Noble – Kouyate axis in central midfield and even though I prefer Declan Rice as a centre back I would start with further forward today; otherwise Lemina and Tadic will be calling the shots.  That would rely on a back three of Collins (if fit), Ogbonna and the vulnerable Cresswell but that is about as good as it gets in the mismanaged circumstances of the squad strength. Further forward now is the hour for Arnautovic, Lanzini and Michail Antonio to prove their worth and Premier League class.

Man in The Middle

Today’s referee is Jonathan Moss from West Yorkshire.  Like all his other Premier League colleagues he is deemed not good enough to officiate at the World Cup but we are stuck with him nevertheless.  Moss is taking charge of his third West Ham game of the season having previously whistled through a home draw with Arsenal and an away win at Huddersfield.  In twenty eight outings he has a record of ninety-five yellows and three red cards.

Predictions

Lawro has toppled of his fence this week to predict a 2-1 West Ham win while Merson goes the other way to predict an away win by the same score.  The Cockney Rejects sang Shit or Bust while the Small Faces put it more politely as All or Nothing and today has that sort of feel to it.  Win and we most probably survive, lose and we are looking over our shoulder at the fat lady.  Southampton will be hoping for a new manager bounce – but it is only Mark Hughes.  With the right attitude and the crowd behind them the Hammers can win comfortably.  If it goes the other way I can see us ending the season stuck on 30 points.  In a show of solidarity I will plump for 3-1 to the cockney boys.

It seems ridiculous on the face of it, as the football season is approaching its climax (we are only six weeks away from the final game), that we should have a gap of three weeks between games. This is, of course, due to the later rounds of the FA Cup and the international break taking precedence. In view of our dismal form prior to the break, then perhaps in our case it is a welcome chance to re-group, work hard, and re-charge our batteries for the run-in. We have just eight games remaining to collect sufficient points to ensure that our six-year stay in the top flight of English football continues for at least one further season.

Whilst all of the remaining games are likely to be important, this match against Southampton is a particularly crucial one. Looking at the other fixtures in this round concerning other teams involved in the relegation scrap, Stoke are playing at Arsenal, whereas Newcastle are at home to Huddersfield, Palace face a tough game with Liverpool visiting Selhurst Park, and Swansea travel to Old Trafford. If (and it is a big if) we can win the game, and if other results go our way, then the league table could look a lot healthier at the end of this group of matches. The table below represents the current position of the bottom eight, who I believe are the only realistic candidates for the drop. Brighton, Watford and Bournemouth on 34, 36, 36 points respectively, have probably done enough already but are not entirely safe yet.

The bottom teams in the Premier League	Points	Goal Diff.	Games Played	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play
13. Newcastle	32	-10	30	8	4	3
14. Swansea	31	-17	30	8	4	3
15. Huddersfield	31	-27	31	7	3	3
16. Crystal Palace	30	-18	31	3	4	1
17. West Ham	30	-21	30	3	5	4
18. Southampton	28	-15	30	5	3	3
19. Stoke City	27	-29	31	3	3	3
20. West Brom	20	-25	31	0	4	3

A victory, with the other results going to form in our favour could see us climb as high as 14^th place in the table on 33 points. If that does happen then we could be five points clear of the drop zone with seven games to play, whereas some of the others would only have six matches outstanding. When you look at the table, then the bottom five have the poorest form in the last five games. We hold a bit of an advantage in that we still have five home games to play, which is more than any of the others, but on the other hand we have more teams in the top six to play in our remaining fixtures.

A draw would still leave us well in the mix with a lot to do, whereas a defeat would be almost unthinkable as we would drop into the bottom three. It is still not clear exactly how many points will be needed to stay up, but any team averaging a point a game continues to be outside of the bottom three. If this remains to the end of the season, and I believe it will, then 38 should be a safe figure. At this stage my money would be on West Brom, Stoke, and Huddersfield to go down, but things can still change. The bookmakers’ odds concur with my prediction, as these are the three favourites, with Southampton and ourselves neck and neck just beyond them. West Brom look as certain as can be, whereas Stoke could join them adrift of the pack with their next two games against Arsenal and Tottenham, before they face us at the London Stadium on April 16. We have a fairly difficult run-in ourselves, but Southampton could also find themselves in a difficult position if we beat them, and then their next three games see them facing Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) and Leicester (A).

Huddersfield face two tough away games at Newcastle and Brighton before a home fixture against Watford. Their run-in then sees them playing Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal, and with their very poor goal difference I can see them joining West Brom and Stoke in the Championship next season.

I see that a demonstration is planned at Stratford prior to the game, but I hope that the support is right behind the team when the game gets underway, and that we don’t see a repeat of the despair that was evident when we went a goal down against Burnley last time. I’m hoping that the sight of Mark Hughes on the touchline will once again inspire Arnie into a match-winning performance, but I’ve given up on trying to predict the team that our manager will select for this crucial game, as I am unable to read his mind.

The most recent games between West Ham and Southampton have seen a glut of goals, including the fixture earlier in the season when we went down 3-2 to a late goal from a soft penalty, after pulling back from a two goal deficit. If our visitors win the game it would be the first time that they had completed a double in the league over us in a season for 20 years, and by doing so they would apparently inflict upon us our 1000^th defeat in the top division in our history. And if they beat us by three goals then that would be our fourth consecutive league defeat by this margin or more, an unfortunate “feat” that hasn’t happened in the top flight of English football for 50 years! You know what happens with statistics like these when West Ham are involved!

There are concerns over the fitness of Lanzini who was on international duty in the break, but Masuaku can return after his six game suspension, and apparently Fernandes, who hasn’t been seen for some time, is fit once again. Rice received some excellent reviews for his performance for Ireland and must start to get a permanent run in the team soon. But whatever happens, all will not be decided this weekend with a lot of football still to be played this season.

Although there are still five home games to go, this will be the last Saturday 3pm kick off at the London Stadium. I fancy a surprising and unexpected 4-1 win for us. Of course what I fancy is extremely unlikely, but you can always hope!

It is a sad state of affairs that every club in the Premier League outside of the top six has a negative goal difference. That means that if you support any one of 14 teams in the top flight then you will have seen them concede more goals than they have scored. And apart from Burnley, who are currently leading the table to finish seventh, your team will have lost more games than they have won. This weekend we face the aforementioned Clarets in the 30^th game of the 38 game campaign, in our latest attempt to pull away from the bottom three. So far they have won ten and drawn ten, so for those of us who like symmetry I hope that we inflict upon them their tenth reverse of the season.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 29 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play
7.  Burnley	40	-2	6
8.  Leicester	37	-1	3
9.  Watford	36	-8	10
10. Brighton	34	-10	11
11. Everton	34	-16	6
12. Bournemouth	33	-10	8	5	3
13. Swansea	30	-17	10	4	3
14. West Ham	30	-18	4	6	4
15. Huddersfield	30	-25	6	5	3
16. Newcastle	29	-13	6	5	3
17. Southampton	28	-12	6	3	3
18. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	4	2
19. Stoke City	27	-26	4	5	4
20. West Brom	20	-21	0	5	3

As I have written before on the subject there is no official competition to finish seventh, but there is a certain satisfaction to be gained from being the leading team in the Premier League outside of the top six who are far and away ahead of the rest. Prize money is at stake too, but this becomes less relevant given the money ploughed in from domestic and overseas television rights.

The battle to avoid relegation, which has massive financial implications, continues to be the most interesting aspect of the league. An extract from part of the league table shown above illustrates that we are still in a better position than some, as there are still six teams below us with only nine games to go. Perhaps the teams from Everton upwards may believe they are more or less safe (although they wouldn’t admit it), but they could still get dragged into it if they have a bad run of results, and enough of the teams below them continue to pick up points.

The teams who currently occupy the bottom three places have current poor form (when the last five games are analysed), although we have only fared better than Palace and West Brom in this respect. Swansea and Bournemouth have the momentum gained from recent good results and this might help them to pull further clear. However we still have six home games to play, and although some fans would have you believe otherwise, our form at the London Stadium would put us in 11^th place in the table if only home games are considered. This should give us an advantage, especially when compared to Southampton who only have three. However we still have to face four of the top six in the table in our remaining nine games, and only Stoke match that number.

It is still not clear exactly how many points will be needed to stay up, but any team averaging a point a game continues to be outside of the bottom three. If this remains to the end of the season, and I believe it will, then 38 should be a safe figure. The home games against Burnley, Southampton and Stoke should be the key ones for us, so let us hope that we start a winning run today. At this stage my money would be on West Brom, Stoke, and Southampton to go down, but things can still change.

Ironically, despite facing the team seventh in the table, the bookmakers have us as favourites to win the game at around 5/4, whereas they only give odds of 5/2 on Burnley. This may surprise some, but Burnley’s recent form is not much better than our own. Unfortunately (given the way these statistics go against us) I still have to report that West Ham have won every home Premier League game against Burnley to date, and they haven’t won a game in the top flight on our ground for almost 45 years. And Burnley haven’t won away from home since November. Oh dear!

Let us hope that the stinging criticism aimed at the players following last week’s capitulation at Swansea has the effect of galvanising our team into a much improved performance. But, however we achieve it, three points would bring a welcome boost to our aim to remain in the Premier League next season. I believe that, in what is likely to be a tight encounter, we will just about win by the odd goal. Enjoy the game!

When I first started following professional football more seriously as a boy, when my preferred bedtime reading was the Playfair Football Annual, Burnley were one of the top sides in the English league.  At the time I would have been able to recite their preferred line-up from memory; which started something like Blacklaw, Angus, Elder, Adamson and so on.  They had won the old First Division in 1960 and were runners-up in both league and cup in the 1961-62 season.  It is fair to say that times have changed dramatically since those days when even Tottenham Hotspur didn’t choke in the final furlong.

Nowadays, most Hammers probably regard Burnley as one of the minions of the Premier League (and in financial terms they languish some way behind West Ham) and yet they sit comfortably in 7^th place with the luxury of looking down leisurely at the frantic scramble below them for top flight survival.  Much of the credit for the new found stability must go to gravelly voiced manager, Sean Dyche, the most famous product from Kettering since Weetabix.  Burnley sensibly stuck with Dyche following relegation in 2015 and, following a quick return, they have emerged as a hard working, difficult to beat Premier League outfit.  There are many parallels with Fat Sam’s old Bolton Wanderers side but with several shades less negativity.

In contrast, things are so bad at West Ham at the moment that it feels like the club must have collectively got out of the wrong side of the bed at the start of the season.  A mini-revival in fortunes at the 2017 has faded and died and there is now the very real danger of relegation haunting the London Stadium.  The Hammers appear to have hit a wretched run of form at just the wrong time.  Mark Noble writing on the official West Ham website has told us not to worry and that everything will be OK.  I am not sure if those are reassuring words or cause for even more worry by what could be taken as a show of complacency.  What is needed is a fight and commitment shown by a team who know they are in a very perilous position.  The current off-field disenchantment around the club doesn’t help either and it has created a toxic environment that must have a knock-on effect to the players.  Not that there are not genuine grievances that, until now, have fallen on deaf ears in the boardroom.  But I do wonder whether now is the right time to air them when the team need a united support to get them across the seventeenth position line.  At least the threat of the march has disappeared but not without a degree of farce reminiscent of the splitters in Monty Python’s Life of Brian – the ‘Poplar’ Front of Judea maybe!

Head to Head

Although the all-time record against Burnley is close to neck and neck, the Hammers have bossed recent meetings having won eight of the last twelve (home and away) and ten of the last twelve home games.  The last Burnley win was at Upton Park in December 2011 when the Clarets came from behind to win 2-1 and prevent the West Ham going to the top of the Championship. The most recent top flight Burnley win was a 2-1 victory at Turf Moor against Gianfranco Zola’s Hammers in February 2010.

In the reverse fixture in October the Hammers were on course for a welcome three points until the game changing and unnecessarily foolish sending off of Andy Carroll.

Team News

Apparently today is designated in the gaming community as Mario Day (on account of it being MAR10) and just maybe this is an omen for a super display from our Portuguese loanee who, so far, has flattered to deceive.  At this stage of the season we need to clutch at any straw that is available.

After two feeble 4-1 reverses on the road we should expect to see several changes today.  It would not surprise me if Joe Hart replace Adrian in goal although it is difficult to pin much blame on the Spaniard for recent performances.  In the centre of defence we will need height to combat the visitors most dangerous threat.  With Winston Reid (and Sam Byram) reported to be out for the season options are limited and the hope is that both Angelo Ogbonna and James Collins have recovered from their problems of last week.  The presence of Aaron Cresswell in the back three always makes me nervous and especially so against a team who are strength is aerial power.  Declan Rice deserves to keep his place but the dilemma is whether to play him at the back or as emergency central midfielder to cover for the continuing flaws in the Noble – Cheikhou Kouyate partnership.

In the more advanced positions there is a desperate need for width and surely Michail Antonio will be a starter this week.  Unfortunately neither Pablo Zabaleta nor Patrice Evra can offer much of an offensive threat which maybe another argument for returning Cresswell to a left (wing) back role.

It is difficult to see how Javier Hernandez fits into the equation.  Undoubtedly he is the best natural finisher at the club but usually offers little outside of the penalty area.  Somehow fashioning Mark Arnautovic, Manual Lanzini, Antonio and Joao Mario into an effective attacking unit could be the best option of causing Burnley damage.

Burnely have their own injury problems and are reported to be without Arfield, Defour, Walters, Brady (who has frequently given the Hammers a torrid time) and keeper Heaton.

The Man in The Middle

Lee Mason from Greater Manchester controls his third Hammers match of the season with the previous two ending as 3-2 defeats: away at Southampton (where he sent off Arnautovic) and home to Newcastle.  In his twenty outings this year his record is fifty-three yellow and three red cards.

Predictions

The safest prediction of the week is that Lawro would have this down as a 1-1 draw. Merson, on the other hand, senses a West Ham reaction and a 2-0 home win.  Burnley are not going to be worried about possession stats and will put the onus on West Ham to break them down.  The usual laboured slow-slow predictable build up is not going get very far.   Maybe we can hope for a little less desire from Burnley with thoughts shifting onto the summer holiday brochures after a job well done.  In any case West Ham need to be fully up for today’s game and I will have everything crossed to take anything from a scruffy win to a pedigree performance.  Perhaps it will turn out to be an opportunity for Joao Mario to celebrate his special day by netting a glorious winner.

The competition to see who will come out on top in Premier League 2 is as fierce as ever. Ignoring the top six in the Premier League it is anybody’s guess as to how the remaining 14 teams will finish the season with just ten games to go.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 28 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play	Burnley LeicesterEverton Arsenal  To play
7.  Burnley	37	-3	3	5
8.  Leicester	36	-1	5	5
9.  Everton	34	-15	7	5
10. Watford	33	-9	7	5	4	2
11. Bournemouth	32	-10	8	5	3	1
12. Brighton	31	-11	8	5	5	3
13. West Ham	30	-15	5	6	4	4
14. Huddersfield	30	-23	6	5	4	2
15. Newcastle	29	-11	6	5	4	3
16. Southampton	27	-12	6	4	3	2
17. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	5	3	1
18. Swansea	27	-20	10	5	3	1
19. Stoke City	26	-26	6	5	4	3
20. West Brom	20	-20	1	5	3	2

Of course there is no official competition to finish seventh, and who cares about finishing positions? Of course prize money is at stake, but with the vast amounts of money awash in the Premier League these days, the final position in the table is not especially relevant. Of most interest is the battle to avoid the drop, which has massive financial implications. I’m making an assumption that Burnley, Leicester and Everton probably have enough points not to be involved in the scrap, and that the bottom 11 teams from Watford down are still involved to a greater or lesser extent. In fact we have to play those three teams (who should be OK) still and that may be to our advantage as they may have switched off a little, as may Arsenal who are unlikely to move upwards or downwards in the table being isolated in sixth place.

Looking at the data above then West Brom and Stoke along with the three teams on 27 points have the most to do in terms of points needed. The bottom three at the moment have the worst goal difference together with Huddersfield and Palace, but looking at the form of the last five games then Swansea, Bournemouth and Brighton have achieved the most, with West Brom, Palace and ourselves at the bottom of the last five games form table.

All of the teams have 5 home and 5 away games to play with the exception of ourselves (6) and Southampton (4), which is a result of the switch at the very beginning of the season. Brighton have the most top 6 sides still to play (5), with all the other teams involved having 3 or 4. And finally looking at my identification of games to play against the four teams with the least to play for, then we still have to meet all four of them. Some might say though that is a disadvantage as the teams may be more relaxed and as such could give us a tougher game.

Whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to make a case for West Brom to survive. If they did it would be up there with the great escapes of the past, including our own in 2007. You can perm any two from five for the others to be playing Championship football next season, but looking at all of the factors my money would be on Stoke and Southampton to be the ones to join the Baggies. But it is so close, a lot can still happen, and this can easily change.

Our next three games at Swansea (today), then at home to Burnley and Southampton, will be ones that on paper we would expect to move us further clear of the bottom three. But if we don’t then the tough games to follow could mean we are still in deep trouble.

Of course watching the news this week, all the talk and pictures has been of the worst snowfall throughout the country for many years. Based on this, the warnings for most of the country not to travel unless absolutely essential, and the forecast for more snow this evening, then at the time of writing, I am amazed that all Premier League games are still set to go ahead. I hope that for the sake of travelling fans, especially our own with the potential difficulties of a long trip to South Wales, that decisions are not left until the last possible moment. But as we have seen with the recent announcement of TV games scheduled to be played on live TV, and the changes of dates involved, little thought is given to the supporters actually going to the matches, everything seems to be decided by Sky and BT who have final say.

Contradictory head to head statistics give us little clue as to the outcome of today’s game. On one hand, Swansea have only beaten us once in our last ten meetings, but on the other hand, they have never lost to us four times in a row, which would be the case if we beat them tomorrow. Over the course of history we are well on top in terms of wins, but just 15 of the 62 meetings have ended in draws. The bookmakers have Swansea as slight favourites to win the game, and given their recent form this is justified. However, when it comes to the correct score, then 1-1 is favourite at 5/1, and I would be happy to leave South Wales with at least a point.

Virtually all of our key players are fit, and it will be interesting to see the side that Moyes selects. I have given up trying to predict this, but I will agree with the bookies on a 1-1 draw, and Andre Ayew would seem a good bet to score the Swansea goal.

At the time of finishing this article, (9pm on Friday evening) all this weekend’s Premier League games are expected to go ahead despite the continuing snowfall and freezing conditions that are gripping the whole of the UK. We shall see.

Not exactly an unstoppable force meeting an irresistible object but today’s game does pitch a ‘must win’ Swansea side against a ‘mustn’t lose’ visiting West Ham.  Both sides were on the wrong end of heavy 4-1 away defeats last weekend, against Brighton and Liverpool respectively, although the Swans have since picked themselves up, dusted themselves down and made it through to the sixth round of the FA Cup.

The Swans are still in the throws of  a new manager bounce following the appointment of Portu-geezer Carlos Carvalhal in December 2017, their ninth manager in ten years of whom only Roberto Martinez has lasted more than two years.  With Carvalhal’s record of seventeen jobs in twenty years it would be ambitious to expect long service awards at the Liberty Stadium any time soon.  That aside, Swansea have won their last three home league games (and last six in all competitions) to rejoin the pack of clubs with all to play for in the relegation stakes.  A win today would put them on equal points with the Hammers.

West Ham, on the other hand, will need to up their game considerably from that on display during their defeat at Anfield although the prospect of facing a pair of Ayews is far less formidable than what the Merseysiders had to offer; even for West Ham’s timeworn and dawdling defence.  The other variable for today’s game is the weather conditions and although technology has meant that Premier League games are no longer called off due to frozen pitches, there will still be safety concerns for those attempting to travel to South Wales this afternoon.

Head to Head

West Ham have won six of the last twelve fixtures with Swansea and have also been victorious in five of the last twelve away games.  The last defeat on the road was in August 2012 and last season the Hammers came away with a resounding 4-1 Boxing Day victory.

Team News

The usual names are on the West Ham absentee list which is thankfully shorter than a few weeks back.  Arthur Masuaku serves the fifth of his six match spitting ban, Pedro Obiang is, of course, out for the remainder of the season and the Hammers are also without the elusive Andy Carroll and the even more elusive Edmilson Fernandes.

Changes from last week’s starting eleven should be expected and I would hope to see either Winston Reid and/ or Declan Rice returning to the back line and one of Michail Antonio or Little Pea starting in place of Joao Mario.  Any realistic solution to the fragility and ineffectiveness of the Noble – Kouyate central midfield partnership seems as unlikely as finding a simple answer to the frictionless Irish border conundrum.

Swansea are without long term injured Bony, Fer and Angel and look set to give a first start since his return to Wales to former Hammer, Andre Ayew.

The Man in the Middle

Familiar face Martin Atkinson will be officiating his fifth West Ham contest of the season but has yet to see a Hammers win.  Previous attempts have ended in defeats away to Manchester United and at home to Brighton plus two home draws with Leicester and Bournemouth.  Atkinson has been in charge of twenty four games this term issuing eighty-one yellow cards and four red ones.

Predictions

Lawro has returned to his favourite 1-1 scoreline for today’s game while Merson is predicting a 1-0 Swansea win.  Chances are that the Hammers will need to rely on the form of Marko Arnautovic once more to get anything out of the game but the hopeful presence of Manuel Lanzinin and Antonio can also cause the home team enough problems to compensate for erratic defending at the other end.  With all of my frost bitten fingers and toes crossed I am banking on Marko showing himself as the true beast from the east today and  inspiring the Hammers to an odd goal victory.