Before last week’s article I developed a programme to anticipate where West Ham would finish in this season’s Premier League final table. This week I provide an update based upon what happened last weekend, including our unfortunate two points dropped in the 2-2 draw with Burnley at the London Stadium.
There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all now have ten games remaining apart from Chelsea with eleven. I have discounted the top five in the Premier League as I believe they have enough points and decent enough run-ins to maintain those places. The teams from 6th to 11th are now:
- 6. Manchester United – 47 points (28 games)
- 7. West Ham – 43 points (28)
- 8. Brighton – 42 points (28)
- 9. Wolves – 41 points (28)
- 10. Newcastle – 40 points (28)
- 11. Chelsea – 39 points (27)
You may recall that I considered the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the current position in the league table of their remaining opponents. The degree of difficulty factor suggested that Newcastle have the easiest run-in.
I then took it further and predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, categorised into teams being faced with a current position of 1-3, 4-5, 6-11, 12-17, and 18-20 given different weightings, whether or not the remaining games were home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other (i.e. the 6 teams being considered).
Some of the results last weekend were as expected, the only ones that were not were West Ham who were expected to beat Burnley, and Newcastle who were expected to draw at Chelsea based on the criteria used. This therefore adjusts the forecast for the final standings at the end of the season which is now:
- 6. Manchester United – 61 points
- 7. Newcastle – 56 points
- 8. Chelsea – 56 points
- 9. Wolves – 55 points
- 10. West Ham – 55 points
- 11. Brighton – 51 points
Chelsea have now risen to a predicted eighth placed finish whilst West Ham have fallen to tenth. As I wrote last time, it’s just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling is that perhaps tenth is just about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors.
I noted this week that the Opta Supercomputer forecast is that West Ham will finish eighth on 55.47 points. (I’m not sure where we’d get the 0.47 points from!). Their programming must have some similarities to mine based on their figures. I will look back at the end of the season to compare The Bennett model versus the Opta Supercomputer at this stage to make a comparison.
This is how Opta see the Premier League ending up…
- 6. Manchester United – 62.41
- 7. Newcastle United – 58.35
- 8. West Ham United – 55.47
- 9. Chelsea – 54.84
- 10. Brighton & Hove Albion – 54.61
On Thursday night we gave Freiburg a bit of a thrashing which on the face of it would compare the relative merits of the Premier League versus the Bundesliga. Seventh in the Premier League were shown to be massively superior to eighth in the Bundesliga based upon this last 16 tie. This was also a significant victory for English clubs who are now on course to claim a fifth spot in next season’s Champions League.
Two additional performance places are up for grabs due to the new format in 2024-25. They will go to the countries with the best average performance in all the European competitions this season. Before Thursday night Italy were top with Germany second and England third, but our win meant that England narrowed the gap on Germany.
Coefficient Rankings:
- 1. Italy – 17.714 (4 teams remaining)
- 2. Germany – 16.357 (3 teams remaining)
- 3. England – 16.250 (5 teams remaining)
- 4. France – 14.750 (3 teams remaining)
- 5. Spain – 14.437 (3 teams remaining
We’ve now drawn another German side in the quarter finals and this time it will be much tougher as we face the might of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the runaway leaders in Germany who have won 21 and drawn 4 of their 25 games, being the only side in the top 5 leagues in Europe to still be unbeaten at this stage of the season.
Having said that they came mightily close to being eliminated from the competition on Thursday night when they trailed Karabakh (of Azerbaijan) 2-1 on the night and 4-3 on aggregate as the tie reached the 90th minute of the second leg. Leverkusen then scored twice in the time that was added to ensure progression. That game surely gives us some hope in the quarter final tie doesn’t it?
Also, if England get the second spot in the ‘performance table’ and the FA Cup winners finish in the top seven, then it would appear that England would have five places in next season’s Champions League, two places in the Europa League and the team finishing eighth would take the Europa Conference League spot. All the more reason to continue to push for a high enough spot in the Premier League, apart from the kudos and the prize money on offer of course.
And what about the Kudus goal where he ran from the middle of our half, dribbled through the Freiburg team on an incredible run then clinically finished with his so-called weaker foot? That got me thinking of the best goals I’ve seen us score at the London Stadium. In no particular order it joins Payet’s amazing dribble through the Middlesbrough defence, and Andy Carroll’s wonderful volley against Crystal Palace. There are others to consider I’m sure. What ones have I missed?
Great goals that they were, none of them compare in my eyes to Martin Peters’ goal against Leicester in November 1968, Trevor Sinclair’s goal against Derby on Boxing Day 2001, or Harry Redknapp’s goal v QPR, also in November 1968 (just two weeks before Martin Peters goal).
I’ve written before about the 1968/69 season and a golden period of four consecutive and absolutely brilliant entertaining games at Upton Park in the Autumn of 1968. When we faced Sunderland on October 19th we’d come off the back of a run of nine winless games. We ended that run thrashing Sunderland 8-0 (the game where Geoff Hurst scored six). A fortnight later in a great game we defeated QPR 4-3, which included the Redknapp goal I referred to above, and a magnificent Bobby Moore goal frequently shown on the screens at Upton Park before games. The game with the Martin Peters wonder goal came in a 4-0 win over Leicester two weeks after that. And finally move on another fortnight for a 2-1 win over Manchester City, the first scored by Geoff Hurst, a near post header from a Martin Peters cross, and the second a carbon copy but this time a near post header by Martin Peters from a Geoff Hurst cross. They could do it both ways around and in this match they did. Those were the days. Wonderful memories.
As the game today is against Aston Villa an abiding memory from fixtures against them is a penalty awarded to us in the last minute of the FA Cup quarter final in March 1980. Up stepped Ray Stewart, the perfect penalty taker when under the greatest pressure to score. He slammed it high into the net in front of the South Bank, we won the game 1-0 and went on to win the FA Cup, the last team to do so as a second-tier side. We’ve had some great penalty takers, in no particular order the best ones in my opinion were Ray Stewart, Julian Dicks, Geoff Hurst, Mark Noble, Johnny Byrne, John Bond, and Paolo Di Canio.
Aston Villa are one of those teams that we have beaten more often than been defeated by. The recent record is strongly in our favour. The last 11 meetings (since and including Boxing Day 2015) – West Ham have won six, four have been drawn, and Villa have only won once – that was this season when they won 4-1 last October. The overall record in history shows West Ham with 45 wins, Villa with 39, and 35 draws.
Two worrying statistics: We have won four and drawn four of our last eight home league games against Villa, and Villa have only ever beaten us once both home and away in a single season in the Premier League. How often do impressive runs like that come to an end?
Our record in Sunday games that follow Thursday evening games is not the best but at least this time Villa are in the same boat, as they had a Europa Conference League game on the same night that we put five past Freiburg when they beat Ajax 4-0 to win by that aggregate score and progress into their first European Quarter Final for 25 years. We will be hoping to improve on our record of dropping points in five of the seven Sunday games that have followed a Europa League game.
Villa’s impressive England striker Watkins is always a threat but he is battling to recover from a gashed knee to be fit for the game. Their captain John McGinn is banned following the reckless tackle last weekend that got him sent off against Tottenham. Emerson has been missing for a couple of games but he may be fit to resume at left back. Cornet is the only definite absentee – apparently he has a hamstring injury. Will we miss him? Is he still with us?
I wonder if Danny Ings will get a run out at some stage? If by chance he scores a goal he would become only the third player to score a Premier League goal against four of his former teams – Peter Crouch and Nicolas Anelka are the others. We will hope that Lucas Paqueta starts of course and has calmed down following his substitution in the week – all our 12 league wins this season have come with him in the starting eleven whereas we’ve failed to win any of the seven games where he hasn’t been involved.
Villa are impressive going forward with only Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal scoring more goals in the league so far this season. I cannot see them failing to score which will mean that we will need to be positive, and all four of Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen and a fit Antonio will need to be firing at the same level as they were on Thursday night. Can we win the game? I hope so but it won’t be easy. I’ll go for a 2-2 draw for the second weekend in a row.