#EFL Championship – Under The Hammers

Swansea City v West Ham United: A Real Test of West Ham’s Promotion Credentials

If we wanted to know just how serious West Ham are about bouncing straight back to the Premier League, Saturday afternoon at Swansea should provide us with a pretty good answer. We travel to Wales sitting third in the Championship, four points behind leaders Swansea after ten games. The Swans have 23 points, we have 19, so while nobody wins promotion in October, this certainly feels like one of those games that could tell us quite a lot about both sides.

What a strange week it has already been for us. Last Friday night’s 1-1 draw at home to QPR felt like a missed opportunity, particularly when we were looking to make the London Stadium the sort of place visiting Championship sides wouldn’t particularly enjoy coming to. Then, five days later, we went to Lincoln and won 6-0. That’s West Ham for you. Just when you think you have us figured out, we go and do something completely different.

That Lincoln result was certainly some response, helped of course by Lincoln’s reckless opening to the game, but Swansea represents a very different examination. They come into the match after four successive victories, the latest being a 1-0 win at Millwall, and their record of seven wins from ten league games explains why they are sitting on top of the Championship. They’ve conceded just seven goals compared with our 12, although our 29 goals means we’ve been comfortably the more prolific of the two sides at the other end. So perhaps the big question is whether our attacking threat can break down the best defence we’ve encountered so far.

One encouraging factor is that we haven’t lost away from home in the Championship this season. Our four trips have produced one win and three draws, including that 2-2 draw at Millwall. But there is also the other side of that statistic; if we’re going to turn a promising start into a genuine promotion challenge, at some stage some of those away draws have to become wins.

Trips to Swansea haven’t always provided happy memories. Our last visit, admittedly all the way back in March 2018, ended in a miserable 4-1 defeat. Before that, however, there was a very enjoyable Boxing Day afternoon in 2016 when we went there and won 4-1 ourselves. That win avenged a 4-1 defeat in May 2016 in what was scheduled to be the final game at the Boleyn Ground (but wasn’t of course because the Manchester United game was rearranged).

That’s right you keep reading the scoreline 4-1. Three of our last games against Swansea have finished with that score and in between them we’ve managed two 1-0 victories. Here’s a quiz for you – answers at the foot of the article.

Name the three goalkeepers who played in goal for West Ham in those last 5 games against Swansea.
Name the goalkeeper who played in goal for Swansea in all 5 games.
Name the player who played twice for Swansea and three times for West Ham in those 5 games and scored a goal for both teams (not own goals).
(an easy one to finish) 21 penalties have been awarded in the Championship this season and 19 of them have been scored. Name the two players who missed with their spot kicks.

For me, Saturday isn’t quite a must-win game, it’s far from it. There is an awfully long Championship season ahead of us, and a point away to the league leaders would hardly represent a disaster, in fact I would be happy with that. But there is an opportunity here too. Win and suddenly we’re just one point behind Swansea, whereas lose and the gap becomes seven. That’s what gives this game a little extra edge.

After six goals at Lincoln confidence ought to be high but now comes the harder part. Can we produce that sort of performance against the team currently setting the pace? It will be a totally different game and it won’t be easy but if we can win we will have 22 points from 11 games which brings our average up to two points a game. Over a whole season that would give us 92 points from the 46 games which would be the total needed to be in strong contention for automatic promotion.

And the answers to the questions:

Darren Randolph was the West Ham goalkeeper in three of the last five games against Swansea, Adrian played in one, and Joe Hart in the other.
Lucas Fabianski was the Swansea keeper in all five of the games.
Andre Ayew played twice for Swansea and three times for West Ham in those five games. He scored for Swansea in their 4-1 win at Upton Park in May 2016 and then scored for West Ham in our 4-1 win in Swansea on Boxing Day 2016. Both he and his brother Jordan played for Swansea and Jordan scored one of the goals in Swansea’s 4-1 win in March 2018
Taty and Jarrod Bowen of course!

Friday Night Takeaways: Lights, Cameras But Precious Little West Ham Action

A three week break, a send-off for Ludo, a London derby, and a full-house under the east end lights were not enough to shake Nuno’s Hammers out of their trademark cautious and slow start to a game

Busy Saying Nothing

I wouldn’t normally watch a pre-match press conference except that the international break wilderness left me desperately needing a fix of West Ham related content. No surprise though that it was again a waste of everyone’s time. The whole process is a charade. If a manger has something smart or insightful to say about an upcoming game, he’s not going to tell the whole world about it in advance. And it must be the shortest of short straws for a reporter having to travel across London knowing that any probing question will be stonewalled by a low block of pointless platitudes: “working hard”, “trained well this week”, “no easy games in this league”, “we’re not where we need to be yet”.

A handout of current injury and fitness updates would quite easily do the job.

Nuno’s major revelation was that the players had been exhausted from playing 11 games in the opening 42 days of the season. A cynic might question whether that should be 11 halves of games as his team are rarely competitive over a full 90 minutes. But nobody asked that question. Still, he assured us ‘the group’ had made good use of the time and had been focusing on all the things that hadn’t been working well – but not slow starts apparently.

The Academy of Slow Starts

I’ve never been a fan of Friday night games. The build-up, anticipation and then following West Ham games has forever been the weekend anchor that the rest of life revolves around. Playing your game before it has really started renders everything else lopsided. Like having dessert before your starter or opening your presents on Christmas Eve.

On the other hand, evening games under the lights will often generate the kind of magic that even had Nuno’s eyes light up in the presser. Obvious then that returning from a three-week break, faced with a London derby, in a packed floodlit stadium, the Hammers would start the game with all guns blazing. How wrong could we be?

The mother of all shameful statistics from Friday was that West Ham managed a meagre two shots in the opening 70 minutes – both well off target. And not a single shot between the 28^th and 70^th minutes. How can that be in a passage of play when you are already a goal down – no matter how terrible that penalty decision was?

Weirdly, this is not a new phenomenon. Its roots can be traced back through all the ages of the dinosaurs. From the late Moyesozoic era, through the lesser Lopeteguian and Potterian epochs and into the current Nunolithic age. Periods of great upheaval, tectonic friction, shifting tactical plates and complex mutations. But precious little progress in terms of forward movement or attacking lifeforms. A succession of cautious coaches inhibited by an evolutionary refusal to take risks.

The result is a team which is rarely on the front foot. Wracked with caution. Waiting to react to the mistakes of others rather than making their own things happen. Fearing mistakes and wanting to gauge opponents before daring to act. To the outsider or newcomers, this is the game we now play. It has been baked into the clubs DNA like a hereditary disease – the new West Ham way. And just as it was impossible to draw our way to survival last season, it will be a lost cause this time around for automatic promotion. How Nuno managed it at Wolves is increasingly puzzling.

Split Personality

Three weeks of planning and preparation and the best the manager could come up with was the return of Tomas Soucek. No-one can dislike big Tom. His commitment and effort are second to none. But he cannot be part of any midfield hoping to dominate games. The Championship may lack the technical execution of the Premier League and the first touches maybe far heavier. But teams are packed with athletic, fast and strong players. Soucek is too one paced to prosper in that environment. Without doubt he can be useful in both boxes but is unfortunately a passenger in between. Very useful to have on the bench, not as a starter.

By no means was Friday’s poor showing all down to Tom. Or any other individual player come to that. When a team only performs in one half of a game and where you ae regularly forced into making half-time substitutions it has to be down to preparation.

Nuno has one of the best – if not the best – squad in the league yet he seems not to know how to use it or what the team’s identity is meant to be. The playing style lacks consistency or cohesion, communication and leadership are in short supply and mental resilience is flimsy.

Whether these repeated failings are primarily down to the manager or to the players is a reasonable debate to have. After all, we only get to see the results played out on the pitch. For me, in the micro-managed world of modern football, it’s the gaffer who must carry the can. We’ve already seen this season how less talented opponents have used motivation and energy to outplay our more illustrious stars. This forms part of a team’s culture and always starts from the top. Successful teams have players who buy into the manager’s plan and understand their individual parts in executing it. It’s not currently happening under Nuno’s watch.

The Season Pointathon Update

A second successive draw made it a total of 11 points dropped in the league so far. The haul of 16 points from nine matches averages out at 1.78 points per game (ppg). Assuming the end of season automatic promotion target is 92 points (or 2 points per game) this leaves West Ham off the pace requiring a revised ppg until season end of is 2.05. Eminently achievable in theory but not with Nuno’s current game plan.

From what we have seen, the challenge of the Championship is intensity, not quality. This is where we are lacking and what needs to address urgently.

Ironically, if the players had been practising their last-minute penalties properly, we might still be unbeaten and three points better off by now. Not really deserved but fine margins, I suppose.

Outlook Changeable

Well done to Nuno for winning the September Manager of the Month award. As long as he understands it was for results rather than the nature of the performances that sat behind them. Success in football invariably drowns out all other noises but only the rosiest of claret and blue filters could disguise the reality of how much room for improvement exists.

Apart from the questionable tactics, Nuno’s management style – which feels churlish to me but is usually perceived as uncommunicative – is a huge worry.

His job is to do the best for West Ham using all the resources available to him. If there is conflict or he has difficult players to deal with, then it is his responsibility to resolve matters and extract the required levels of performances, even if he doesn’t get along with certain individuals. Ignoring players or freezing them out for the sake of his personal comfort or hurt feelings is not acceptable.

This behaviour is not unique to his time at West Ham and has followed him from club to club. His current refusal to use Alvarez or Magassa when the team is crying out for a specialist defensive midfield player should by itself be a sackable offence. Let’s see what happens on Wednesday as the circus moves on to Sincil Bank – or the ProAmpac Stadium to give it its full title – Google Rating 4.4ì “Beer prices are fair, with some quality ones”.

The last time West Ham played Lincoln City in the league was during the Hammers 1957/58 Division Two promotion season. The game in December 1957 ending: Lincoln 1 West Ham 6. A repeat would be most welcome.

The Imps have yet to win a home game this season (drawn two, lost two) but have won three times on their travels to sit mid-table with 11 points from nine games.

COYI!

Sifting Through The Wreckage Of West Ham’s Relegation: What Happens Next?

The pride, vanity, stupidity and arrogance of David Sullivan’s leadership was an accident waiting to happen. Now we must rely on the same fools to sort it out again.

The long and painful slow motion car crash which heralded West Ham’s inevitable relegation finally reached its climax at the weekend. A late show of industry but no last minute dramatic escape. Now they are over the edge how far will they fall? A safe landing? Or crashing and burning into the abyss below?

Media coverage of West Ham’s plight has seen assorted journos belatedly understand what fans have known for years. That the fault of the Hammer’s demise lies fairly and squarely in the boardroom. A club run for the self-aggrandisement and vanity of incompetent owners who had always considered themselves as benevolent saviours. Forget the broken promises and the ten-point pledges that were not worth the paper they were written. It was only ever about their own egos – amateur interference and arrogant meddling in a sport that ought to be run by professionals.

Perhaps you could get away with running a club as a hobby in the past when promoted clubs regularly struggled to make the step up to the Premier League. But that has all changed. The game has changed. Data analytics, extensive scouting netwroks, player trading strategies, organisation, planning and a reliance on pace and athleticism on the pitch have been universally embraced – except at West Ham who have plodded along from one short-sighted season to the next.

Post relegation media reports have also homed in on the Hammer’s decline since the 2023 European Conference success, but the rot had set in well before then. Instead, the high-water mark was the surprise sixth-place finish in 2020/21, and it was the failure to refresh and build on that success which started the fire. The departure of Declan Rice and wasting the proceeds on a string of erratic recruits was the accelerant.

West Ham are now on their fourth manager in a little over three years. I was expecting it to be five, but it seems the Czech Sphinx has pulled rank to provide Nuno with a stay of execution. Nuno’s haul of 36 points from 33 games is hardly impressive while strange selections and tactics, multiple points lost from winning positions, and puzzling game management strategies have frequently left us scratching our heads. Still, compared to the other names being bandied about (Parker, Bilic, Dyche) sticking with the devil you know might not be such a bad idea. Only time will tell.

It has not been sacking managers that is the root of the club’s problem but making poor hiring decisions in the first place. The sole criteria for appointment being out of work and available. In the absence of any footballing expertise or competent direction from the boardroom this approach has proven a recipe for chaos. A squad assembled by a succession of drive-by managers, a lame-duck technical director and a meddling know-it-all Chairman. Who could have thought such lack of cohesion and continuity would end in disaster?

Now we are being led to believe the same fools who got us into this mess are the ones capable of getting us out of it again. If the player exodus is anywhere near as extensive as predicted, how on earth does a club with such an abysmal transfer record put together a squad capable of promotion over the long and arduous season ahead.

Understandably, a lot of focus in the wake of relegation has turned to the fragile state of West Ham’s finances. But we should remember that there are two separate views of finance in football. The club’s ability to comply with prevailing league rules such as PSR and SCR is one. The club’s debt and cash flow position is the other. A cynic might say that club owners conveniently conflate the two as a means of hoodwinking fans.

It will come as no surprise that the West Ham board have made a right pig’s ear of both. When it comes to cash flow, the club has extensive transfer debt, expensive financial debt and has factored future transfers receivable at a discount to pay yesterday’s bills. Attempting to address these through revenues and transfers looks like a distressing prospect. The hope is that the owners will break the habit of a lifetime and inject further capital to stabilise the debt burden.

West Ham’s financial year closes on 31 May and plans must now be put in place to comply with the Championship’s 85% Squad Cost Ratio rules based on much reduced revenues for the coming year. My rough back of a beer mat calculations predicts a loss of around £60 million in the current year on revenues of £225 million plus a raft of transfers out. This should be well within the retiring PSR limits thanks largely to the continuing impact of the Rice sale in 2023.

For 2026/27 revenues will probably fall to around £125 million. Squad costs (salaries and player amortisation) are currently circa £245 million but may reduce by £50 or £60 millions depending on how widespread relegation clauses are applied in existing contracts. But this still exceeds SCR limits and player sales are going to be necessary. This is where things become interesting as individual sales have varying impacts in three separate areas: a saving in wages, a reduction in amortisation, and profit or loss on player trading depending on whether a player is sold above or below book value. Profits from player trading are added to revenues for the purposes of SCR. Claims that West Ham must make £150 million in player sales might be valid as a cash flow mitigation but for SCR no two transfers are alike.

As the following table illustrates, this produces many possible permutations. For example, selling Bowen for £50 million would generate a significant wage saving, have little or no amortisation impact but the whole fee can be booked as player trading profit. In contrast, selling Fernandes for £50 million provides a lower wage savings, a significant amortisation reduction, but only £20 million of player sale profit.

At the other end of the scale, it might prove impossible to offload players such as Kilman and Fullkrug without taking an unwanted hit on player sales. I don’t see anyway it makes sense to cancel player contracts early.

The Championship moving from PSR to SCR does seem to offer a glimmer of hope. But that still requires the owners to do the decent thing and inject much needed capital into the club. The club also need to hold their nerve and not sell players on the cheap just to get funds through the door. We will watch this space. COYI!