The Big Names Advance in the FA Cup As West Ham and Brentford Chase A Place In The Last Eight

As West Ham prepare to face Brentford for a place in the FA Cup Quarter Finals, do the biggest Premier League clubs really lack interest in the FA Cup?

West Ham host Brentford on Monday evening with a place in the FA Cup quarter‑finals at stake, completing the fifth round of the competition. The tie offers an intriguing contrast in styles and priorities, with both clubs viewing the FA Cup as a genuine opportunity for progress, but for us of course the priority has to be ensuring that we are playing Premier League football next season. Nevertheless I would like to think that we really want to progress in the competition, but no doubt some would disagree and want us to forget the cup and concentrate on survival.

I’d like to think that West Ham will see the match as a chance to build momentum and pursue silverware. With (hopefully?) a strong home atmosphere at the London Stadium, I hope that we approach the game aggressively, particularly given the success of several elite clubs already reaching the quarter‑finals. I believe that progress in the competition would add to the progress that we have made in previous weeks.

Brentford, meanwhile, have shown themselves to be well‑organised and difficult opponents. Their tactical discipline and ability to frustrate ‘stronger’ teams make them a dangerous proposition, especially if we fail to control the tempo of the game. Brentford’s willingness to press and counter could prove decisive.

With no replays and everything decided on the night, the match is likely to be tense and finely balanced. The winner will join an increasingly elite group in the quarter‑finals, further underlining the FA Cup’s continued relevance in modern English football.

In recent years, it has become common to argue that the biggest Premier League clubs are no longer truly interested in the FA Cup. This theory is based on factors such as fixture congestion, financial priorities and the growing importance of European qualification. However, the progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals of the 2025–26 FA Cup strongly challenges this assumption and suggests that elite clubs still value the competition.

Those who argue that big clubs lack interest point primarily to the modern football calendar. Top Premier League sides regularly compete in domestic league matches, European tournaments and the cup competitions, often playing many extra matches in a season. With payment for league position and European qualification offering far greater financial rewards than the FA Cup, managers are frequently accused of prioritising league position over cup success. Heavy squad rotation in early rounds is often cited as evidence that the FA Cup has been relegated to secondary importance.

There is some validity to this argument. Elite managers are under pressure to manage player workloads and avoid injuries, particularly during decisive stages of the league season. As a result, weakened line‑ups can increase the likelihood of shock exits (Crystal Palace for example) reinforcing the perception that the FA Cup is expendable. However, rotation alone does not necessarily imply disinterest. Instead, it reflects the depth and resources available to top clubs in the modern era. Two in particular, Arsenal and Manchester City possess squads strong enough to rotate without abandoning competitiveness.

I fail to understand why mid-table clubs such as Palace and Fulham (on Sunday) cannot do a better job of squad rotation to ensure progress in the competition. I know that league position brings a bigger financial reward but fans have other priorities. Take Fulham yesterday for example. I’m not their manager but if I was I’d start with my strongest team, try to get a goal or two and then rest some players. But no, Southampton held them and then Silva brought on the big guns late in the game (too late), only for the Saints to progress with a penalty in added time. It serves them right.

I’m not sure if Sunderland did the same but you wouldn’t expect a mid-table Premier League team with nothing else to play for other than league position to be beaten by the side at the foot of League One.

The 2025–26 FA Cup provides strong counter‑evidence to the theory of declining interest. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City were the first four teams to reach the quarter‑finals, and all did so by negotiating challenging fixtures (well perhaps not Arsenal!). These were not symbolic victories or dead‑rubber matches; they involved competitive performances, often away from home, against motivated opposition. The presence of four of the Premier League’s most successful clubs at this stage suggests clear intent rather than indifference.

Furthermore, success in the FA Cup still carries significant prestige. It remains the oldest domestic cup competition in world football and continues to offer silverware, historical significance and a route into European competition. For managers judged on trophies and for clubs seeking to maintain winning cultures, the FA Cup remains an important objective. Once teams reach the latter stages, selection patterns typically reflect this, with stronger line‑ups and increased tactical focus. And there is nothing better for the fans than a day out at Wembley. This now extends to the semi-finals as well as the final. Our victories in 1964, 1975 and 1980 live long in my memory even though they are now many years in the past.

In conclusion, while financial realities and fixture congestion have changed how elite clubs approach the FA Cup, they have not removed its importance. The progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals demonstrates that the biggest Premier League clubs are still invested in the competition. Rather than abandoning the FA Cup, they are managing it strategically, ensuring competitiveness without sacrificing broader season objectives. I hope that we can join them in the draw for the quarter finals. Southampton or Port Vale at the London Stadium would be good if we progress. What are the chances of the ‘big four’ avoiding each other? That would get the conspiracy theorists going. COYI!

The Return Of The Set Piece Chumps And West Ham’s Financial Oblivion

Woe, woe and thrice woe for West Ham as their set piece vulnerability returns with a vengeance in heavy loss at Liverpool.

History has a way of repeating itself at West Ham.

When Graham Potter replaced Julien Lopetegui, there was zero overall improvement in the team’s results. But he did manage to plug the gaping holes in what had been a disastrously leaky defence. In Potter speak: “we were competitive in every game despite eventually losing.”

This newfound defensive resilience however did not survive the summer break as the Hammers conceded goals left, right, and centre at the start of the campaign. And were especially vulnerable from set pieces. Once again, the arrival of a new manager – this time in the shape of Nuno Espirito Santo – initially did little to impact the club’s overall trajectory. Except, that defending from corners and free kicks did significantly improve. Until Saturday that is.

Premier League football is rapidly becoming defined by either breakaway goals or set piece shenanigans. Facilitated by the expected level of ineffectual and inconsistent refereeing, every corner kick promises to be a messy tangle of pushing, shoving, bundling, holding, blocking and shirt tugging. What an indictment it is of the beautiful game that scrambled goals from corners are the principal weapon of this year’s potential champions. How long before we have a Golden Dead Ball – Ballon Mort d’Or – awarded each season to the most profitable set piece coach?

Although Liverpool are latecomers to the Premier League party of corner kick aerial bombardment, it is something they have embraced wholeheartedly in recent weeks. Games are now won and lost in a six-yard box battlefield which has become no place for passengers or onlookers. West Ham were typically ill-prepared for such an assault with the three goals it earned the home side in the opening 45 minutes effectively killing the game.

Defending is a collaborative discipline, and most goals are down to collective failure rather than individual error. But having said that, the slight Mads Hermansen looks totally unsuited to the physical challenges that opponents can unleash at set pieces. He is far better than Alphonse Areola with the ball at his feet but as a shot stopper and for aerial ability he is obviously worse. A keeper who lacks presence, who is unable to dominate in the air always spreads panic and uncertainty across the entire defence. We have seen how this works repeatedly over the years. Hermansen had done OK on his return to the first team but when put under physical pressure for the first time, the terrified keeper from early season was back for all to see.

It’s not that others weren’t implicated in the goals. Mateus Fernandes could have been stronger in clearing the lines before goal number one; Aaron Wan-Bissaka inexplicably refusing to get close to Gakpo for the fourth. But, for me, too much of the vulnerability stemmed from a lack of belief in the keeper.

Aside from the goals conceded, there were some positives to the Hammer’s performance. They had plenty of the ball, heads didn’t drop and if games were settled on xG we would be laughing.

It is either paradox or coincidence that West Ham have failed to win any of their league games since the injury sustained by Pablo. Nuno’s effective tactical approach, discovered by accident, having fallen apart due to the unavailability of one technically limited component.

A second positive from the weekend was defeats for all the other relegation ‘hopefuls.’ We are in no worse a position than we were a week ago but have one fewer game to make up the deficit. While I had Liverpool down as the least winnable of our remaining games, the visit to Fulham is one of the potential victories if we are to survive. It will be the second favour of the week to be asked from the Cottagers if we are to pull it off. To win, Nuno must earn his corn with a more front foot lineup than we saw at Anfield. Possibly starting with both Taty and Callum Wilson up front.

***

West Ham’s long awaited accounts were finally published at the back end of last week. Although largely consistent with all the estimates leaked during the preceding months, this didn’t prevent a social media furore over the bleakness of the accounts. Confirmation of what a badly run club West Ham is.

It was a given that the absence of European competition and poor league performance would severely hit the broadcasting revenues on which the club is overly reliant. It is a situation that will not be improved by the next set of account due to continuing struggles on the pitch and the constraints of not having operational control of the stadium.

From my perspective there are two ways of looking at football finance. One is what must be done to comply with PSR/ FFP regulations. The other is the appetite of owners to invest in the club and what they hope to achieve from their ownership.

If West Ham survive this season, it will be the last year of PSR. Relegation would upset the whole apple cart; there is no doubt about that. But I’ll go no further down that particular rabbit hole until necessary.

As far as PSR for the current season is concerned, West Ham loss of £104 million in 2024/25 would be added to the prior season’s profit of £57m. On the face of it, this allows a £47m loss in 2025/26 to stay within the three-year £105m loss limit. However, these numbers do not take account of allowable deductions for women’s football and youth and community development. Over three years this might total anywhere between £35 to £50 million according to the estimates I have seen. Thus, allowable PSR losses in the current season could be up to £97 million.

I have no idea whether this still leaves West Ham in a hole. If it does, then selling a stake in the women’s team may be the preferred or only avenue available. Relying on player sales would be problematic as they would need to be completed by 31 May to appear in this year’s accounts.

When it comes to club ownership, we can see from the wider world of football that no-one buys a football club any more in the hope of making annual operating profits. Sustained success almost always requires surplus revenues to be ploughed straight back into player transfers and wages.

The allure of football club ownership is either asset appreciation, personal prestige, or to further other non-financial goals. Owning a club is like owning a rare piece of art. Something to show-off about and then sell for a hefty profit at some point in the future. Or else ownership is a vehicle to promote outside business interests or for the purposes of sovereign state soft power.

For most owners, a football club is a high-risk, low-income investment in the short term. With the potential for massive, high-prestige, long-term capital appreciation in the future. If West Ham’s owners can’t or won’t play that game, then they should get out. It is not a business where success can be achieved through penny pinching and seat of the pants management. COYI!

West Ham – The Fight For Survival – Eleven Games. No More Margin for Error

With 11 games left and 25 points on the board, West Ham United’s season has reached the point where every kick, every decision, every missed chance feels heavier than the last. The maths is simple. The reality is anything but.

Most signs point to 38 points being the absolute minimum number this season. That means we need at least 13 more points between now and May. Not impossible. But there’s no room left for wasted opportunities.

Last weekend’s 0–0 draw with Bournemouth felt like one of those moments we may look back on. It wasn’t a bad result. It wasn’t a disaster. But it felt like two points dropped. When rivals are slipping and the door is ajar, you have to force your way through.

Because doors don’t stay open for long in relegation battles.

A Fixture List That Pulls No Punches

There’s no hiding from it: the run‑in is brutal.

Trips to Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle. Home games against Manchester City and Arsenal. On paper, those are fixtures you circle and hope for a miracle. Anything from them is a bonus.

So where is this season really going to be decided?

At the London Stadium.
Against teams we have to beat.

  • Wolves (H)
  • Everton (H)
  • Leeds (H)

Those matches aren’t just important. They’re season‑defining. Lose any of them and the pressure multiplies instantly.

Away from home, trips to Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brentford carry just as much weight. Get something from those games and suddenly the table looks kinder. Come away empty-handed and the fear creeps in.

A realistic return across the run‑in might look like:

  • 3 wins
  • 3 draws
  • 5 defeats

That gets us to 37 points.

And that’s the terrifying part.

Thirty‑seven might not be enough. Thirty-eight might not be enough either. We might need forty, or perhaps forty-two? From the realistic return above can we turn two of the draws into wins? That gets us to forty-one. I’ve a feeling that would do it.

Which means an extra goal in two games. A late winner perhaps? Holding onto a lead instead of dropping more points from a winning position. A moment or two of courage or quality could be the difference between survival and heartbreak.

Why Hope Still Lives

For all the nerves, this team has given us reason to believe.

Eleven points from the last six games tells its own story. Performances have improved. There’s fight again. There’s structure. There’s belief. This side looks far more like a team that expects to compete than one simply hoping to survive.

Keep that level up, and averaging just over a point a game from here isn’t unrealistic. It still might not be enough. Do we need 37, 38, 40, 42? Who knows? It’s not in our hands now.  

But the warning is clear: the games we have to win must be won. There’s no safety net left. Lose those, and we’re relying on favours that rarely arrive.

The Bigger Picture

At the bottom, things are tightening.

Wolves and Burnley are almost gone. One relegation place remains, and it’s a scrap between several nervous clubs. Forest, Tottenham and Leeds all have reasons to worry. None are safe. Neither are we.

West Ham aren’t doomed. But we’re not comfortable either.

We’re on the tightrope now – every step deliberate, every wobble dangerous.

What This Comes Down To

Forget the spreadsheets. Forget the projections.

This is about:

  • Winning the games that matter
  • Turning home advantage into points
  • Finding something – anything – in the toughest moments

It’s about players standing up when it hurts.
About the crowd dragging the team forward when legs feel heavy.
About refusing to let the season slip quietly away.

Eleven games.
Eleven chances to fight.
Eleven chances to prove this club belongs here.

Do enough – and we survive.
Fall short – and we’ll spend the summer replaying the moments where it slipped through our fingers.

The season isn’t over yet.
But from here on, every game is a final.

Anatomy Of A Relegation: Why West Ham Are In Trouble And Is There Any Way Out?

As West Ham show late season signs of life is there any chance that the battle for survival can outrun the culture of neglect surrounding the London Stadium club.

I recently came across an online comment that it was “players who win games, not formations.” It’s an interesting opinion and not one that I agree with, but it does sit at the heart of West Ham’s battle to avoid relegation over the coming weeks.

Ultimately, the recipe for sustained success is a squad with depth in every position. There is no getting away from the strong correlation that exists between revenues, the money invested in players and success on the pitch. But it is not the full story. If it were, the role of the coach would be largely redundant, other than ensuring appropriate levels of fitness are maintained.

The core competence of the effective coach/ manager is to unlock the full potential of his squad through the tactical arrangement of players on the field. Attempting to achieve the optimum balance between defensive stability, midfield control and attacking strategies relative to the strengths and weaknesses of the players available. Tactics and formations must support those goals, but more importantly must be understood and achievable by those expected to exeute them. We must cut our coat according to our cloth.

While the club’s degenerating and chronic ill-heath has been years in the making – a poor diet of short-termism, cheap alternatives and superficial ostentation by an egotistical board – it is the disastrous managerial appointments in the wake of Moyes’ departure which would take prominence in the final autopsy report.

Lopetegui was puzzling. An apparently successful coach who was locked in a permanent state of confusion. No discernible style of play and a laboured tactical approach which was completely incompatible with the Premier League’s unswerving direction of travel towards pace, energy and athleticism.

If that wasn’t bad enough, what folowed with Potter was even worse. He was the perfect example of a man with a one size fits all plan who was determined to stick to it regardless of whether it would ever work again, or whether those involved were suited to playing it. No lessons had been taken on board from his calamitous spell at Chelsea. The operation had been a success even if the patient had died.

The we come to Nuno. At the end of the year, it had looked like a pattern repeating itself. A ten-game winless streak and countless points thrown away from winning positions had left the club teetering on the precipice. But then two things happened. Two strikers were signed in the transfer window and Paco Jemez was appointed as sNuno’s assistant. The resulting change of approach – whether by accident or design – suddenly produced a positive change of fortunes. Where only 14 points had been accumulated from the opening 21 matches, the last six have yielded an additional 11. A repeat of the great escape continues to be a long shot but at least it’s not impossible to imagine. All that’s needed is for multiple planets to align.

The challenge for Nuno is the weakness of the squad in depth and its reliance on key players for specific roles. We have already seen this following the injury to Pablo Felipe. Let’s be honest, Pablo is a wholehearted workhorse, not a thoroughbred, yet there is apparently no-one available to cover his absence. No-one to offer a physical presence, run around a lot, close down, and make a nuisance of themselves. Instead, it has required a re-shuffle. Abandoning the 4-4-2 that has underpinned recent improvements and reverting to the 4-2-3-1 which had proven so ineffective in the past. If an injury to Pablo can be this disruptive, what might happen in the long term absence of Bowen, Summerville or Fernandes? If there is a bright spot to the season, it is that we have been very lucky with injuries. Touch wood!

A midfield of Fernandes, Soucek, and Magassa (or Potts) simply doesn’t have the variety to worry opponents or unlock defences. Against Bournemouth, Fernandes had his least influential game for some time when playing the deepest of the three. While there was no-one from midfield to push forward regularly or get in the box to support attacks. With fewer threats to deal with, the visitor’s defence were able to double up on Bowen and limit his usual influence on the game.

Having said that, the Hammers created enough chances to win the game comfortably. This included an uncharacteristic four shots in the opening five minutes and a flurry of late attempts following the introduction of Callum Wilson. If only Wilson were five or six years younger!

I didn’t think the challenge on Bowen at the death was a penalty, even though Keith Hacket felt differently. Anyway, I’ve always been convinced VAR have started packing away that late in the day and will only get involved in their favourite pastime of disallowing goals. Refereeing decisions are increasingly a lucky dip that are impossible to second guess and too easily influenced by external factors. I’m looking forward to the time when AI (Artificial Inconsistency) can be introduced into the equation.

In a parallel universe, West Ham might well have won both their last two league games. What a difference an additional two to four points would make to the optics of the relegation fight. As it is, the Hammers remain marooned in 18th place for the 12th consecutive week. Saturday’s visit to Anfield is an unlikely springboard for escaping this current plight.

We can take a crumb of comfort from history where West Ham got out of a far worse position in the great escape season of 2006/7. The respective tables after 27 and 38 games are shown below. The Hammers earning 21 points from their final 11 games while Fulham took only seven points from their final 12. Had they not been presented with a get out of jail card by a very understrength Liverpool, they may well have been destined for the drop instead of our friends from Sheffield.

Few observers anticipate a repeat of such a feat this time around, but let’s not yet abandoned all hope. Richard’s analysis before the Bournemouth game estimated a 38-point finish for West Ham while this week’s Opta Supercomputer suggests the Hammers will be relegated with a meagre 36 points (see below). For perspective, the Opta Supercomputer managed to predict just three of last weekend’s ten Premier League games correctly. The computing equivalent of sticking a pin in.

If you are of a more optimistic nature, a repeat of the form from the last six matches would see West Ham surge to safety with 45 points. Wishful thinking, no doubt, but what else is there to look forward to. COYI!

West Ham’s Chances of Survival – The Under the Hammers Supercomputer Predicts

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, has been called into action to predict what might be necessary in the run-in for West Ham to retain their Premier League status. Geoff’s latest article confirmed that Deep Block has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42. 

I asked Deep Block to consider the situation again and it ran thousands more permutations and it once again confirmed the belief that 42 points is needed to guarantee survival. It did however concede the Douglas Adams influence on the total needed and when asked if there was any leeway it confirmed that 38 points might be enough and now prefers to give a range of 38-42 points given the unpredictable nature of football. I asked it to consider West Ham’s chances of reaching the lower end of the range and this is what it came up with:

West Ham’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures (2025/26)

West Ham have 10 points from our last 6 games. Here are our final 12 league matches, with a prediction for each based on current form, opponent quality, and recent trends. Of course the current form of our opponents may be different at the time we come to play them:

DateOpponentVenuePrediction & Rationale
21 FebBournemouthHomeDraw – Bournemouth are in good form, 9th in the table and no team in the league can better their 14 points from their last 6 games, but West Ham’s home advantage could earn a point. This is one of the games where the difference between a loss, a draw and a win could be massive in the final analysis.
28 FebLiverpoolAwayLoss – Last season’s champions Liverpool are having a poor season by their standards, 6th in table, but are strong at Anfield; historically a tough fixture for West Ham. They have 8 points from their last 6 games. A point in this game is unlikely but if achieved it would be an added bonus in the fight for survival.
4 MarFulhamAwayDraw – Fulham are inconsistent, 12th in table, with just 2 wins and 4 defeats in their last 6 games; West Ham could grind out a point, but this is one of the six away games where we have the best chances for a win.
14 MarManchester CityHomeLoss – City are title contenders, second in the table and closing on Arsenal; they have 11 points in their last 6 games; West Ham will be big underdogs. We always lose this game and this season’s fixture is likely to have the same result. An unlikely point would be brilliant – Arsenal will be cheering us on.
22 MarAston VillaAwayLoss – Villa are flying high, currently third this season but only 8 points from last 6 games; a difficult away trip, but a point might just be possible although statistically unlikely.
11 AprWolvesHomeWin – Wolves are struggling, bottom of the league 17 points from safety with no chance of avoiding the drop; a must-win for West Ham and a realistic three points, despite the adverse result and display in the away fixture.
18 AprCrystal PalaceAwayDraw – Palace are unpredictable, 13th in the league with just 5 points from their last six games; a point is possible, but like the away game at Fulham this is one of the six away games where we have to hope for a win.
25 AprEvertonHomeWin – Everton are in good form, 8th in the table with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games; West Ham’s home form could be decisive. It won’t be easy but at this stage three points will be critical if all goes to plan.
2 MayBrentfordAwayDraw – Brentford are solid, an unexpected 7th in the current table and good form with 10 points in the last 6 games, but West Ham can take a point if we defend well. We meet in the fifth round of the FA Cup at the London Stadium before this game is played.
9 MayArsenalHomeLoss – Arsenal, top of the league, but faltering a little with 9 points from their last 6 games; they are likely to still be in the close title race; it will be tough for West Ham. This is an unlikely game to pick up anything unless Arsenal’s nerves are shredded at this point; they have been known to falter and panic as the season approaches a climax.
17 MayNewcastle UnitedAwayLoss – Newcastle are inconsistent but generally strong at home; but just 7 points from their last 6 games. West Ham will be underdogs, but at this stage anything from the game could be vital.
24 MayLeeds UnitedHomeWin – We will know what we need to do at this point if we are still able to survive. Leeds may still be involved but may well be safe by then; West Ham could take advantage if that is the case.
Summary of Points Projection
  • Predicted Results: 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
  • Estimated Points: 13 points from the final 12 matches

As West Ham currently have 24 points, this projection would see them finish on 37 points—right on the bottom edge of the predicted survival threshold of 38-42 points.

Key Insights
  • Crucial Matches: Home games against Wolves, Everton, and Leeds (and possibly Bournemouth despite their current form) are the ‘must-wins’. Points gained in other games will likely decide West Ham’s fate.
  • Tough Run-in: Fixtures against 8 teams currently in the top 10 are challenging, and 5 games against top 7 sides Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford and Villa especially so. Points from these five are very unlikely, but an odd one or two could be crucial.

Margin for Error: Slim—any slip-ups in crucial games could be fatal. Deep Block highlights the seven most crucial games are those against Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds. At least 14 points from those will probably be the minimum required unless some unexpected points can be gained from away trips to Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa, and home games against the top two, Arsenal and Manchester City

  • Current Record: West Ham have played 26 matches, earning 24 points, which is an average of 0.92 points per match.
  • Recent Form: In their last 6 league matches, West Ham have picked up 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats), which is an improved rate of 1.67 points per match.
  • Other Supercomputer Projections: Multiple models predict West Ham will finish with 36 points and in 18th place, which would mean relegation.
  • Required Rate for Survival: To reach the likely minimum safety threshold of 38 points, West Ham need at least 14 points from their final 12 matches—1.17 points per match. To hit the higher estimate of 42 points, we’d need 18 points or 1.5 points per match.
Fixture Analysis
  • West Ham’s remaining 12 fixtures include 8 matches against teams currently in the top half (top 10) of the table, with just 4 fixtures against teams in the bottom 10 (Fulham, Palace, Leeds and Wolves)
  • Our recent “upswing” (back-to-back wins before a narrow loss to Chelsea, and then a win against Burnley and draw against Manchester United) suggests we could maintain a realistic chance of survival if form continues. How important could the 20 points dropped from winning positions turn out to be?
Comparison with Other Relegation Teams

Burnley

  • Current Points: 18 from 26 matches (0.69 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 20 points from 12 matches (1.67 points per match) to reach 38 points—an unlikely jump given their form.
  • Projection: Burnley will finish with 28–32 points and be relegated.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

  • Current Points: 10 from 27 matches (0.37 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 28 points from 11 matches (2.55 points per match) for 38 points—virtually impossible but still mathematically possible.
  • Projection: Overwhelming favourites for relegation, predicted to finish bottom.

Nottingham Forest

  • Current Points: 27 from 26 matches (1.04 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 11 points from 12 matches (0.92 points per match) for 38 points—achievable just if current form (9 points from 6 games) holds.
  • Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Tottenham

  • Current Points: 29 from 26 matches (1.12 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 9 points from 12 matches (0.75 points per match) for 38 points—a very real risk of relegation unless recent slide in form (2 points from 6 games) and instability improves.
  • Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Leeds United

  • Current Points: 30 from 26 matches (1.15 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 8 points from 12 matches (0.67 points per match) for 38 points—favourable position.
  • Projection: Most models predict survival, with Leeds finishing just above the drop zone.
Survival Chances: Odds and Supercomputer Predictions
  • Relegation Odds: Wolves and Burnley are overwhelming favourites for relegation. West Ham are the next most likely, with odds reflecting their precarious position but also their recent improvement. Tottenham and Forest are the next most likely with the bookmakers.
  • Our Supercomputer, Deep Block, Forecasts: West Ham are predicted to finish 18th with 37 points, just below the safety line. Burnley and Wolves are expected to go down, with Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds narrowly surviving.
Conclusion
  • Our survival chances are better than Burnley and Wolves, but slightly worse than Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. But taking into account the unpredictability of results it is too close to call at the moment.
  • West Ham’s realistic points per match is 1.0–1.2 if recent form continues, but we need to maintain or improve this to survive. Key matches will be decisive. If West Ham can win those, survival is possible, but the margin for error is slim. West Ham will likely need at least 38 points to guarantee Premier League survival this season, but a safer target would be 40–42 points given the competitiveness of the relegation battle. This means we must secure 14–18 points from our final 12 matches. Anything less could leave our fate dependent on other teams’ results.

West Ham Survive The Brewer’s Droop But Face Stiff Bees Test To Remain Up For The Cup

Despite a dire performance in the substandard FA Cup tie at Burton, the Hammers are through to the 5th Round to face Brentford. Before that it is back to league football and the desperate battle for survival.

In the world of modern football, the entry of Premier League and Championship clubs into the FA Cup has developed into a series of phoney rounds in this glorious old competition. For the fans, it promises dreams, excitement, and anticipation. An outside chance of snatching silverware just five matches away on the road to Wembley. For the media, there are potential banana skins and giant killing heroics that make for thrilling content as an antidote to the tactical morass of league football.

But in the dugouts and technical areas things are far more cynical. Where the romance of the cup is increasingly viewed as an unwelcome inconvenience – a contractual obligation distracting from the real business of titles, European qualification, promotions and relegations. The manager’s conundrum: how much can I get away with while still making it look like we’re taking it seriously?

And so, this was how it was as the Hammers headed up the M1 to Burton for their 4th round tie against lowly League 1 opposition. Ten changes from the side who had faced Manchester United four days earlier including first starts for Adama Traore, Keiber Lamadrid and Mohammadou Kante. To test our patience even further, Nuno also reverted to his favoured cup formation of three centre-backs to cope with the anticipated threat from the mighty Brewers front line.

I’ve never been a fan of three at the back given it is generally adopted as a negative formation. To make it work requires high energy wing backs continually pushing up to provide attacking width; and wide forwards who are deployed narrower to create space on the wings and provide threat through the middle. None of that happened. And with two central midfielders seemingly instructed to sit deep it was a dire and disjointed effort. Perhaps no surprise from a team of relative strangers playing in a formation that didn’t suit them.

The entertainment was as far from a pulsating cup tie as could be imagined. Little of note happened for the entire 90 minutes of regulation time and it was only the introduction of Crysencio Summerville that lifted the game from its fitful slumber. The quality of his sixth goal in seven games totally out of character from the substandard game.

In line with current trends, the game’s major talking point revolved around the weak refereeing of Lewis Smith. The tackle by Freddie Potts was a clear foul and deserving of the yellow card originally selected by Smith. For the referee to change his mind, not due to advice from some guy in a bunker at Stockley Park, but due to the reaction of the Burton players was diabolical. Yet another irony of officiating whereby waving an imaginary card gets you a booking, but mobbing the referee gets the decision changed.

By the end, the Hammers were hanging on. But Nuno’s gamble or resting key players for the relegation battle had paid off. As with the previous round extra time had been required but we were into the hat for the 5th round draw. We shouldn’t scoff at this. It is an above average achievement for the club who since their last FA Cup win in 1980 have been dumped out of the competition by this stage in 60% of seasons.  

It was difficult to judge the performances of the young players in the circumstances. I have a general concerning our academy graduates in that they tend to be developed as tidy rather than exciting. Competent at receiving the ball, controlling it and making a simple pass, but lacking enough va va voom to make them special. Of those I’ve seen, Ezra Mayers looks to be the leading prospect.  

Last night’s 5th round draw turned up a home tie against bogey side Brentford. Games will be played on the weekend of March 7/8 after three more league games have taken place. Teams will be starting to take the cup more seriously by this stage, giving the managers plenty more to think about in what is shaping up to be an open tournament. West Ham will still be in survival chasing mode by then, while Brentford might well be eyeing Champion’s League qualification. It’s not the worst of draws but still a very difficult obstacle to overcome.

During the FA Cup hiatus, the Under The Hammers supercomputer, Deep Block, has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42. A target that would require West Ham to pick up 18 points from the upcoming 12 games. That’s a minimum of 5 wins and a handful of draws. Not impossible but still a huge change of fortune for a team that has won just 30 of their last 100 league games, while averaging 1.15 points per game. Repeating such form would take us only to 38 points which may well not be enough. Below is my own winnability ranking of the 12 games to go.

The uphill challenge begins on Saturday with the visit of Bournemouth to the London Stadium. It is one of the games I feel that must be won if safety is to be achieved. But Bournemouth are an enigma. Losing player after player but then finding they have another one hidden up their sleeve. This time a teenage Brazilian (Rayan) who has slotted seamlessly into English football with two goals and an assist in 198 minutes played.

The Hammer’s preparations have been hampered by a mysterious injury to new signing Pablo. The striker becoming the latest occupant of the Andy Carroll suite at West Ham’s Rush Green Infirmary. Pablo’s absence will require a change to the more adventurous formation that had kickstarted our recent revival. My instinct is that Nuno will use Jean-Clair Todibo’s return from suspension as the excuse for a reprise of the three at the back experiment as follows: Hermansen – Todibo, Disasi, Mavropanos – Wan-Bissaka, Fernandes, Soucek, Diouf – Bowen, Taty, Summerville.

COYI!

Cup Dreams or Banana Skins? West Ham visit Burton in Classic FA Cup Fourth Round Contest

As a West Ham fan, the build-up to this Saturday’s FA Cup Fourth Round tie against Burton Albion is a familiar mix of anticipation and nerves. Our league campaign has been a struggle so far, with the team sitting 18th in the Premier League and every point feeling increasingly precious. Yet, there’s a sense that the FA Cup could be the spark we need to turn our season around. I’ve read some that say forget the cup and concentrate on staying in the Premier League. I don’t agree.  

Saying this, our recent form has shown signs of life and we are not down yet. 2026 started badly with a comprehensive 3-0 defeat at bottom of the table Wolves, one of our worst performances in years (and there have been a few!). Following this three days later the home defeat to Forest (unlucky as it was it some respects) suggested that our chances of escaping the drop were disappearing fast. The cup win over QPR, even if it took extra time, seemed to inject some much-needed confidence into the squad, and we began to feel the mood shifting ever so slightly.

The last five games since then have yielded 10 points in the league with away wins at Tottenham and Burnley, a home win over Sunderland, a 3-2 defeat at Chelsea after leading 2-0 at half-time, and Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United with their equaliser coming in the sixth minute of time added on. The board indicated seven minutes. Where did that come from? Of course we might have been happy with the prospect of one point before the game but Sesko’s finish was a body blow and it seemed like two points lost rather than one gained. It means we have now regained sole leadership of one particular league table – points dropped from a winning position – we are now at the top with 20. If just some of those leads had been retained how different the league table would look now.

Of course, as any West Ham supporter knows, the FA Cup is never straightforward for us. Our history in the competition in my lifetime is varied, three-time winners (the last one coming in 1980 over 45 years ago), and twice runners-up, but it’s also littered with those infamous “banana skins.” Losses to the likes of AFC Wimbledon, Wigan, and West Brom in recent years have left scars alongside those from years gone by – the list is endless – Huddersfield, Stoke, Plymouth, Blackburn, Swindon, Huddersfield again, Coventry, Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Huddersfield (for a third time!), Hull, Hereford, Newport County, Wrexham, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR, Norwich, Torquay, Barnsley, Luton, QPR (again), Grimsby, Wrexham (again), Swansea, Tranmere, Sheffield Wednesday (again), Sheffield Wednesday (for a 3rd time), Nottingham Forest, and Sheffield United. Those are just some that I can recall from my many years of following the team and to them can be added a similar number of League Cup exits to lower league opposition. There’s always that nagging worry that we might slip up once again.

Burton Albion, for their part, are having a tough time in League One, sitting 21st and fighting relegation. Their league form has been poor, with no wins in their last five, but the FA Cup has brought out a different side of them. Fourteen goals in three cup games is no fluke, and they’ll be coming into this tie with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Still, there’s reason for optimism. On paper, our technical quality and finishing should see us through, even if the manager decides to rotate and give some fringe players a chance. The cup is a chance for those on the fringes to stake a claim, and for the team as a whole to build momentum for the league run-in. But we can’t afford to be complacent. Burton’s attacking form in the cup is a warning, and our own history tells us that nothing can be taken for granted. Most pundits are tipping us to win, and I’d like to believe we’ll get the job done, but the magic of the FA Cup means you never quite know. I’m expecting an open game, probably with goals at both ends, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a real test of character. But how good would it be to be in the draw for the fifth round?

West Ham At Burnley: Fernandes Outstanding, Summerville On Fire And The Return Of The Mads

There may yet be life left in the floundering Hammers. A third win in four games and fine individual performances raises the prospect of another great escape and puts pressure on a handful of teams immediately above us.

The welcome victory and clean sheet at Turf Moor was not quite the game of two halves that we have come to expect from West Ham. But it was a close call. The fearless ambition of the first half certainly didn’t make it back out of the dressing room after the break.

It is rare for a Nuno lineup not to prompt at least a moment or two’s head scratching when it is first announced. On this occasion it was a recall for Mads Hermansen, the keeper most responsible for the Hammer’s unhappy title as set piece concession kings. Nuno’s rationale was that Hermansen had been outstanding in training and merited a second chance. More likely was that Alphonse Areola was designated scapegoat for the manager’s poor game management at Chelsea.

In fairness, Mads did all that was asked of him and did nothing wrong. He can proudly boast to have kept goal for all (both) of the team’s league clean sheets this season. He is also far more comfortable with the ball at his feet than Areola. But I couldn’t escape the heebie jeebies whenever a high ball was drilled into the box. It’s not that Areola is the most commanding of keepers, but Mads lack of stature is an added worry. Fortunately, Burnley didn’t put him to the test apart from a brief spell of pressure after the break. More knowing opponents will surely look to target this short(!)coming.

On a positive selection note, Nuno opted to throw new loan signing Axel Disasi straight into the mix than relying on the hapless Max Kilman. It was a solid debut for Disasi who showed no sign of ring rustiness as a result of his lack of game time. Again, the caveat is that none of the defence were not unduly troubled by a poor Burnley team for whom Premier League survival is now a lost cause. It is unlikely that Scott Parker will follow in the footsteps of previous failed Burnley manager, Vincent Kompany, by landing a job at a European heavyweight.

Both West Ham goals came during a dominant first half display. The first, Mateus Fernandes’ powerful run from his own half before releasing Crysencio Summerville to dink a smart finish over the keeper. The second, a pleasing retro West Ham passing movement. Fernandes from deep to Summerville; a delightful layoff to Malick Diouf; and an excellent cross expertly headed home by Taty Castellanos. They are what I call genuine assists.

It was a fifth goal in five games for Summerville. Quite a turnaround for someone who looked like he couldn’t hit a barn door earlier in the season. And, of course, it should have been six in six had it not been for incompetent officiating in the Nottingham Forest fixture.

The second half was an anti-climax as far as West Ham attacking intent was concerned. They might have snatched a third had Jarrod Bowen’s final pass been better at the end of an impressive run, but the master plan was to protect what they had at half time without adding to the points lost from winning positions.

With Burnley making a bright start after the break, the Hammers were temporarily in panic mode and experienced several narrow escapes at the back. Nuno’s reaction was to replace a striker, Callum Wilson, with Freddie Potts in midfield. The game settled down after this with goalmouth action at a premium. While I would have liked to have seen a more adventurous change in an attempt to boost the woeful goal difference, it can be argued that the end justified the means. It was a precious three points in the bank.

As in the majority of recent games, Fernandes was the standout West Ham perfromer. A presence in midfield not seen since the departure of Declan Rice. Just a shame there is not a more influential partner to share central midfield duties with than Tomas Soucek. Aside from providing extra height in either box, the game mostly passes Soucek by. Every pass made is safe and predictable. It’s really not good enough in the modern midfield frenzy and will surely be exposed by pacier and more energetic adversaries.

The scourge of inconsistent refereeing was my other takeaway from the game. The slightest coming together in a tackle is often needlessly penalised, fouls outside and inside the box are treated differently, extravagant dives and play acting are rewarded, defenders are routinely allowed to manhandle forwards while forwards are pulled up for merely jostling defenders. Time and again Kyle Walker was allowed to get away with pushing and shoving Summerville because he knew he was lost for pace. If Adama Traore had been brought with the sole intention of clattering Walker into the advertising hoardings, I would have looked more favourably on his signing.

Victory made it three wins in the last four games for West Ham. We’re still deep in the smelly stuff but the outside prospect of escape has been renewed. No accident that the uptick in performances have coincided with the arrival of El Paco as Nuno’s right-hand man. Was it really blatant penny pinching that prevented him bringing in his own staff?

West Ham sit an encouraging seventh place in the Premier League form table (last six games) and to survive we must hope results can continue to improve. Ominously, leading that table are Tuesday night’s opponents, Manchester United. My impression of the Red Devils is a team that is lively in attack yet vulnerable at the back. That must drive our approach to the game.

It is tempting to get caught up in assessing all the odds and permutations that could arise between now and the end of the season for each team at the bottom of the table. But as Shakespeare wrote (in ‘When Saturday Doth Approach’) “That way madness lies.” Best just to focus on our own results and performances. Win as many games as we can and hopefully someone else will end up below us.

History tells us that as the season progresses, results start to become even more unpredictable. There are teams with nothing to play for, teams focusing on cup competitions and outcomes that are already settled. The Hammers face Manchester City and Aston Villa immediately after midweek Round of 16 European games. Arsenal may already have won the league by May 9 and have an eye on the chance of a double/ treble/ quadruple. Less likely but still possible, Newcastle may be preparing for a Champions League final when we play them on May 17. Does any of that help? Who knows? But at least it’s a few straws to clutch at. COYI!   

Claret & Blue Survival Showdown – Burnley and West Ham battle for Premier League future

Both West Ham and Burnley are in the relegation zone, making this a true six-pointer. Burnley sit 19th with 15 points, while West Ham are 18th with 20 points. A win for either side could be pivotal (is probably a must) in the fight for Premier League survival. A draw will be of little help to both teams. These are the two teams that have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season.

Recent Form

Burnley
  • Last 6 League Matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, 3 points
  • Season: 3 wins, 6 draws, 15 defeats, 15 points
  • Season goals: For 25, Against 47, Difference -22
  • Last Match: Lost 3-0 to Sunderland
  • Home Form: Just two wins in 12 home fixtures, but three draws in their last four at Turf Moor
  • Defensive Issues: Conceded two or more goals in four of their last five home games.
West Ham
  • Last 6 League Matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 7 points
  • Season: 5 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, 20 points
  • Season Goals: For 29, Against 48, Difference -19
  • Last Match: Lost 3-2 at Chelsea after leading 2-0
  • Away Form: Only one win in our last ten away games; we have conceded in 22 consecutive matches
  • Recent Upswing: Back-to-back wins against Tottenham and Sunderland before the Chelsea defeat.

Other Match Facts

Burnley are winless in their last seven Premier League games against West Ham, drawing three and losing four having won four of their previous five against us.

West Ham have won 10 out of 19 (53%) of their Premier League games against Burnley.

West Ham have already lost at Sunderland and Leeds this season. We’ve not lost against all three promoted clubs in a single campaign since 2009-10, which ironically included a 2-1 defeat away to Burnley.

Burnley are winless in their last 15 Premier League games (D5 L10), their longest winless run for 135 years in top-flight football. (D3 L4), having won four

Summary

This match is crucial for both clubs’ survival hopes. West Ham’s recent attacking form and Burnley’s defensive frailties suggest the Hammers have a slight edge, but both teams are under immense pressure and prone to lapses. Expect a hard-fought, nervy encounter with plenty at stake.

If the teams above us maintain their current points per game levels then the cut off point to avoid relegation is likely to be around 42 points, a higher figure than in most seasons. We currently have 20, so a minimum of 22 points will probably be needed in our last 14 games (it could be less, but it could be even more) to be playing in the Premier League next season. Where can 22 points come from? Make your predictions for the games to come and see how many you think we can get. Imagine how much better off we would be if we hadn’t thrown away 18 points so far this season from winning positions! Our remaining fixtures are:

Burnley (A)
Manchester United (H)
Bournemouth (H)
Liverpool (A)
Fulham (A)
Manchester City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Wolves (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (H)
Brentford (A)
Arsenal (H)
Newcastle (A)
Leeds (H)

Nuno’s Game Management Weakness Costs West Ham Dear In Stamford Bridge Battle

The Hammer’s specialty of throwing away hard-earned points was to the fore on Saturday when Nuno needlessly pressed the defensive panic button in response to Chelsea pressure

Saturday’s game at Stamford Bridge managed to encapsulated the entire emotional range of supporting West Ham in recent seasons. A spectrum of hope, expectation, false dawns, frustrations, disbelief and anger.

A run of three straight wins had allowed the merest hint of optimism to seep into an otherwise hopeless situation. Things were still desperate but at least there was a sense that the players were prepared to give it a go. That if we went down, we would go down fighting.

In the build up to Saturday’s game, only the recklessly optimistic were predicting victory at Chelsea. Their glass half-full prophecies possibly the result of glasses being topped up too quickly and too frequently with intoxicating liquor. For the rest of us, a spirited performance capable of boosting morale and confidence for the winnable fixtures to come was the essential requirement. A point would be great, but a narrow defeat wouldn’t be a disaster if it was backed by a performance to be proud of.

It’s funny how perspectives on games can be changed by events. If you had only seen the final score, you might imagine an action-packed end-to-end thriller that was only settled in added time. But that was not the reality. It was another two-goal lead tamely thrown away after the break. Another West Ham game of two halves. No wonder Hammer’s fans were fuming. Not for the first time this season, a comfortable two goal half-time lead surrendered thanks to poor game management. The media focus would be on Chelsea’s sensational comeback. But one man’s comeback is another man’s capitulation.

West Ham have now dropped 18 points from winning positions this season (15 since the appointment of Nuno). They have taken the lead in 12 games and ended up losing four and drawing three of those matches. Had they preserved only a third of the points, then the gap to safety would be far more presentable. A half and they would be mid-table.

Exactly what goes on in the dressing room at half-time? What signals does Nuno give out to the players. Does he convey nervousness and caution? Does a half-time lead come as so much of a shock that he doesn’t know what to do or how to react? Does he permanently carry a panic button around with him ready to revert to type at the first sign of pressure? Convinced that the worst defence in the league – the one without a clean sheet since they last played against a Nuno side – are capable of holding out for an entire half as you invite the opposition to attack. And that the worst defender in the league is just the man to shore things up. There is no chance West Ham can defend their way to survival. And why try it when the relative strength is with the attacking players?

From what we have seen so far, Nuno’s game management expertise is shocking. Tactical and personnel changes when they come have been late and misguided. The common themes have been replacing forwards with defenders, defending deeper, creating massive gaps between defence and attack, isolating forwards and abandoning all pretence of ambition. Failing to occupy the opposition defenders is an open invitation to push forward and create the overloads that are invariably our undoing.

The reaction to Chelsea’s second half resurgence shouldn’t have been a change to three central defenders; but to inject fresher legs and more pace into midfield. Or fresh ideas in attack. I can just about accept the case for Tomas Soucek when his role is predominantly as an auxiliary central defender. But once Max Kilman was introduced, he should have been replaced by Freddie Potts or Soungoutou Magassa. His alarming lack of pace simply no longer works as a more advanced midfielder.

Once the twin striker formation was jettisoned, the very foundation of first half success – creating space for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville to exploit – disappeared. The approach was doomed to failure. If a change upfront was needed, then a straight swap of Callum Wilson for Pablo would have been my preference. Continue to ask questions of the Chelsea defence, not give them the rest of the evening off.

By the end of the game, Nuno had removed all three of Pablo, Taty and Bowen to provide fans with a first glimpse of muscle-bound serial underachiever Adama Traore. We can’t say he didn’t make an impact as it was his petty confrontation with Cucurella which sparked the melee leading to Jean-Clair Todibo’s red card. I’m not saying that the eternally irritating Cucurella doesn’t deserve all the grief that comes his way, but this did not work out well for West Ham. Todibo’s absence through suspension will be critical considering who his likely replacement is likley to be.

It is difficult to know where to start with West Ham’s defending. There has been improvement at set pieces but goals against remains the highest in the league. The latest Achilles heel is the cross to the far post where central strikers are isolating aerially challenged full backs. The first two Chelsea goals both coming via this route – as had the goals conceded to QPR, Tottenham and Sunderland.

***

All eyes today will be on the slamming shut of the transfer window. The vague messages intentionally leaked from the club are that they are working hard on new signings – with the caveat that it is always a difficult environment in January. Of course, leaving your most important business to the very last moment will always be difficult – if not downright negligent.

The centre back situation is farcical given how critical it has been all season. It is now perfectly setup for the typical West Ham showdown featuring a Sullivan special foisted onto the latest reluctant manager. A no-nonsense centre back and attack minded midfielder would be an acceptable final day’s work for me, but I am fully prepared for disappointment.

Once the dust has settled and the transfer curtains finally drawn until the summer, we have only the uphill struggle to survival to concerns us. Throwing away leads and shipping an average two goals per game is not a habit that can lead to safety. The challenge starts with a massive must-win if we are to have any hope game at Burnley next Saturday. The best hope for winning the game may rely on Paco being able to lock Nuno in the Turf Moor broom cupboard while he delivers the half time pep talk. COYI!