Can West Ham end their run of consecutive defeats away from home?

The game against Southampton last Saturday was one of the most enjoyable visits to the London Stadium this season. The 3-1 victory was well deserved and a fair reflection of the game despite the visitors having the lion’s share of possession which can be a very misleading statistic. No points are awarded for having the ball; only the result counts. We had more shots, plus more shots on target, and this led to more goals and a very welcome three points. With some of the other teams at the foot of the table also picking up points the relegation battle is intensifying with just ten games of the season to play (Villa have eleven).

It still seems likely to me that the three relegation slots will be occupied by three of the six teams currently propping up the table, although Newcastle, who are just above the bottom half dozen, could still play a part with a poor run, especially if some of the lower teams collect more than a point a game average in the run-in.

It is at this stage of a season when you are involved in the skirmish to avoid the drop into the Championship that you start to look at the remaining fixtures for your club, and also for the others in contention, to assess your chances of staying up. I keep hearing pundits saying that West Ham have a tough set of fixtures until the end of the season so I thought I’d compare them to those of our competitors at the foot of the table.

Of course there is no scientific way to work out what will happen, and there are so many variables. But for a bit of fun the first assessment I made was to look at the current league positions of all the clubs that we still have to face and give each match a score based upon the degree of difficulty. So, for example, a fixture v Liverpool would score 1, Man. City 2 etc., down to Norwich 20. Therefore based on current league positions it would give an indicator of the difficulty of matches outstanding. This made interesting reading. The score for Villa had a proportional adjustment as they have 11 games remaining.

Newcastle 116, West Ham 111, Norwich 105, Watford 103, Brighton 83, Villa 82, Bournemouth 74.

Using this formula, it would suggest that Bournemouth, Villa and Brighton have the toughest run-in. Bournemouth and Villa already occupy relegation slots so would appear to be in the greatest danger, along with Norwich who still have points to make up. However this doesn’t take into account fixtures against teams who may be in a prominent league position but have little to play for. These may be easier games than those against clubs at the bottom fighting for their lives.

So, how many games do the bottom seven clubs have against teams who are also in the bottom seven? Are these games tougher or easier? Certainly getting three points in these games in some ways is more important because it means that the opposition (who are the key rivals) don’t get any.

Newcastle 5, West Ham 4, Norwich 3, Watford 3, Brighton 2, Villa 2, Bournemouth 1

And will the FA Cup have any influence? Both Norwich and Newcastle are still involved at this stage. Will their involvement hinder or improve their chances of avoiding the drop?

Liverpool and Manchester City are way ahead of the rest of the league, so games against those two sides might be the toughest of all. But they might not if those teams relax because of positions already certain or involvement in Europe. Newcastle, Brighton, and Bournemouth still have to face both clubs. Watford, Villa and Norwich still have an outstanding fixture against one of them, whereas West Ham don’t have to face either in their final ten games. Sometimes, fixtures against mid-table sides with little to play for are the ones that you want in the last few games of the season.

So what does all this prove? Well, nothing really I just had a look for a bit of fun. Of course, as I said there are still so many variables in the remainder of the season and I haven’t even mentioned coronavirus yet.

One interesting fact is that the bottom 7 all have away games this weekend, and I believe the following weekend they will all be at home. Based on league positions alone then Bournemouth would appear to have the hardest game at Liverpool (1st), Villa are at Leicester (3rd), Brighton are at Wolves (6th), Norwich at Sheffield United (8th), West Ham at Arsenal (10th), Watford at Palace (12th), and Newcastle at Southampton (13th). I guess that we would all be happy with one point, and any team that picks up a win would gain an important advantage over the others.

The current form table (last 5 matches) has Bournemouth 7pts, West Ham, Watford, Villa and Norwich all 4 points, Newcastle and Brighton 3 points. Newcastle and Brighton are the only teams not to have won at least one game in the last five, but conversely they have more points currently than the other 5.

Current relegation odds vary slightly from bookmaker to bookmaker, but the following are average figures. Norwich 1/12, Villa 4/7, Bournemouth 8/11, West Ham 7/4, Brighton 9/4, Watford 3/1, and Newcastle 6/1.

So, having looked through all this, what do I think will happen? Lots can happen in the weeks ahead, but my feeling at this stage is that Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth will be playing Championship football next season, and apart from those, Brighton will be very involved in the scrap to survive. In my opinion West Ham and Watford will pull away from trouble, and Newcastle probably have enough points in the bag already. But we can never be sure with our team though, can we? I’ll probably need to review my prediction soon!

Arsenal are not the team they once were and are no longer anywhere near the invincibles of a few years ago. However we should not underestimate them, as although they do have defensive frailties, they are more than capable of scoring goals. My spies tell me that Tomas Soucek has made an excellent recovery from his injured hip and is likely to play a part. Will the manager keep the same team that played so well to defeat Southampton last week? Or will he revert to a more defensive formation? We have lost our last five Premier League games away from home, so I suppose we should be grateful if we can get anything at all from this game. It’s about time we won another away game. Perhaps we can sneak it 2-1?

After collecting from a 90/1 bet on West Ham last weekend, I’ll give the bookmakers a chance to get some of their money back! The bets I quite like the look of for this game are:

West Ham to win the game – 9/2;

West Ham to win 2-1 – 16/1;

West Ham to win 2-1 with Bowen scoring the first goal as he did last week – 110/1;

West Ham to win with both teams to score with both Antonio and Bowen on the scoresheet and Ogbonna to receive a card – 150/1.

All longshots but a bit of fun to add to my enjoyment of the game (I hope!)

We’re Gunner Score One More Than You. West Ham Look To Maintain Momentum By Outscoring Arsenal In Saturday’s Derby Game

Can the Hammer’s new found sense of optimism created by last weekend’s three point success against the Saints survive a visit to The Emirates?

Taken in isolation, the renewed sense of optimism following last week’s win against Southampton seems rather misplaced. From being a team that many felt would struggle to pick up any points at all before the clocks went forward, there is now talk of plundering points from each and every game. That includes upcoming fixtures against our three snooty London neighbours, who are nominally part of the big six but not as good as they used to be, or so the theory goes.

There was a time when Arsenal were not just big six, but half of the big two, alongside Manchester United. As with Ferguson at Old Trafford, however, Arsenal have struggled so far to break free from the shadow of former long term manager, Arsene Wenger. Perhaps that is also the Hammers problem, becalmed after the fleeting balmy days of super Johnny Lyall.

In truth, Arsenal problems began midway through the Wenger reign, when he failed to find effective replacements for his dogged no-nonsense central defenders. The strategy of recruiting attacking players from the swankiest showrooms but picking up defenders from the breaker’s yard has persisted to this day.  New manager, Mikel Arteta does seems to have a credible plan, but it is fair to say that his team, with its focus on youth, is very much a work in progress. Will he be given the time to see it through?

It is the Gunner’s sloppiness at the back (although it has improved in recent weeks) that will give the Hammers cause for hope. If West Ham can show the same intent, work rate  and energy levels as they did last week, they will be sure to cause problems. The combination of Michail Antonio, Sebastien Haller and Jarrod Bowen are certainly capable of unsettling the Arsenal back-line. That being said, Arsenal’s attacking players also have more than enough quality to breach the Hammer’s error prone rearguard.

All this supposes that David Moyes is prepared to continue with the more enterprising line-up and style that we saw last Saturday. Any change to the starting line-up would be disappointing as well as unpopular – further ammunition for the claims of negativity. The prospect of two teams endeavouring to outscore each other through attacking bravado and defensive inadequacy would be welcome relief from the spectre of an impending virus pandemic for a couple of hours. An away win can often be the best medicine.

In the continued absence of Tomas Soucek, the weakest link in the West Ham armour will be in central midfield where Mark Noble will struggle to keep pace with those around him. As a consequence, Declan Rice will be forced to play deep, almost as an auxiliary centre back, and be prevented from making forward runs. Rice’s forward surges are an ability that sets him apart from many other holding midfield players in the Premier League – particularly English ones.

One player who will not feature this weekend (or maybe ever again) is former Gunner, Jack Wilshere. It’s a shame that his time as a Hammer has been so dismal but I don’t understand the personal abuse that he frequently gets on social media. I’m sure he would much rather be on the pitch than in the treatment room. It was clearly very foolish of the club to give him such a lengthy contract in the circumstances but that is not his fault..

This week’s referee is Martin Atkinson from West Yorkshire.  Atkinson was previously in charge of the Hammer’s win at Southampton in December last year. On VAR duty will be Kevin Friend. According to the GivemeSport website, West Ham would be six points better off and well clear of the relegation places but for VAR decisions going against them. Wishful thinking probably!

The pundits take differing views this week. Lawro has gone for his favoured 1-1 draw while former Gunner, Charlie Nicholas has opted for a repeat of last season, with a 3-1 home win. Away to Arsenal has not been a happy hunting ground over the years. In fact, the records both home and away to Arsenal are poor. The last victory at The Emirates was, of course, the opening day of the 2015/16 season and West Ham have lost each of the four away meetings to take place since then. I read somewhere that Moyes has never beaten Arsenal in 15 attempts – so the omens are not good. Still how dull following football would be if we couldn’t choose to ignore the facts. With a positive attitude we easily have enough talent available now to make a game of it. That is exactly what we want to see. It is not impossible that we can come away with something from the game and I will go honours even at 2 goals apiece. COYI!

Recovery Position: A Sparkling West Ham Victory Sees Them Climb Out Of The Bottom Three For Now. What Did We Learn?

Everything about Saturday’s performance was just so much better than what’s gone before. What are the takeaways that will help navigate West Ham through the remaining games of the season?

The Wisdom of The Crowd

The wisdom of the crowd concept is that although individual members may not be wiser than a single expert, collectively they are.  It is demonstrated frequently in football where fans often have a more realistic take on the value of a player – no crowd would ever have sanctioned the signing of Carlos Sanchez, for example.  The Crowd largely got that their way on Saturday’s team selection, but with an added bonus of the surprise pairing of Michail Antonio and Sebastien Haller leading the line in an enterprising 4-4-2 formation. Throw in the introduction of Jarrod Bowen, a recall for Pablo Fornals and Jeremy Ngakia keeping his place and suddenly there was a team full of running and purpose. The Crowd had realised ages ago that West Ham were too slow in moving the ball forward, too predictable in opening up defences and hopeless at supporting whoever was the unfortunate lone striker. Amazingly, everything finally come together and delivered a deserved and much needed three points.

The Possession Myth

Despite the fine victory not everybody was happy if social media was to be believed. Those who are invested in their views that David Moyes is a dour, clueless Scot or that Haller is moody, French lump refused to have their opinions changed merely by events. Critics will point out that only having 34% possession in a home game is no cause for celebration. Yet, West Ham were able to outperform the visitors 14-10 on goal attempts. Possession, for the sake of it, is not what it is cracked up to be. On this occasion Moyes got the tactics spot on – by going direct it proved an effective counter to Southampton’s high press. The question, though, of whether this high tempo, hard-working, committed style was a one-off tactic or is to be how we will shape up for the rest of the season is a valid one. It won’t work so spectacularly every week and there is still plenty of work to be done in improving ball retention. Overall though, the change of approach made for a very entertaining, as well as a productive, game.

99% Perspiration

As full debuts go, it could not have gone much better for Jarrod Bowen. It was not just his smartly taken goal, welcome as it was, but also the good work he did in all areas of the pitch. Getting forward quickly to support the strikers; not giving up the chase for loose balls; working hard to regain possession when it was lost; and making a last ditch challenge to deny Bertrand a goal scoring opportunity. He looks just the type of player The Crowd want and love. A good, honest, young professional who is hungry for success and knows that working hard as well as possessing great technique is required. I don’t believe these are attributes that only English players have, but it was a breath of fresh air compared to the complacency shown by some of the big-money signings from overseas in the past. Some may feel that a full debut should have come sooner but, on balance, I think Moyes has handled the situation sensibly, given the nature of the previous two games.

The New Mr West Ham

Watching a re-run of the game on TV yesterday I spotted Declan Rice singing along to Bubbles as the teams walked out onto the pitch at the start of the game. Maybe other players were doing the same but not that I saw. Rice has become the backbone of the West Ham team and it would/ will be a great shame if, and when, he leaves in search of the better things that the Hammers cannot offer. While he is here there is no doubting his commitment to the club and cause. We should appreciate him while we can. If Tomas Soucek were to replace Mark Noble in Saturday’s line-up then it would be a team with a far better balance of ability and athleticism – arguably our strongest eleven, even when everyone is fit. Players such as Noble and Robert Snodgrass can still play a part in the squad but no longer as regular starters. The game is far too quick for them now.

The Race For Relegation

It was another interesting weekend in the battle at the wrong end of the table. West Ham are one of the six teams at greatest risk and as satisfying as the win was, performances like Saturdays need to be sustained if safety is to be assured. With most of the teams involved having ten games remaining it is tempting to compare and contrast run-ins – but this can prove misleading as incentives of opposing clubs change with time  – is home to a relegation threatened Watford an easier game, say, than away to Manchester United if Europa League qualification is the best they can hope for by then? In practice there are only two exceptional teams in the league (Liverpool and Manchester City) and West Ham should now be looking to pick up points in each of their remaining fixtures. The bookmakers favour Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth for the drop but I fancy Brighton to succumb. Survival is not a foregone conclusion, but I am breathing a little easier (despite the threat of coronavirus) after the weekend’s events.

Ratings: Fabianski (7), Ngakia (6), Ogbonna (8), Diop (7), Cresswell (6), Rice (8), Noble (5), Bowen (8), Fornals (8), Antonio (9), Haller (8) Subs: Snodgrass (6), Anderson (n/a)   

Not quite “must win” yet for West Ham as they face Southampton, but it will be if they don’t start picking up points soon

Two teams that gained promotion from the Championship at the same time (in the 2011-12 season) meet today. Whilst Southampton gained automatic promotion by finishing as runners-up to champions Reading, we, of course, came up the “fun way” defeating Blackpool in the play-off final at Wembley. Both clubs have consolidated within the Premier League in the seven completed seasons since that promotion and have similar records. We have finished above them on three occasions whereas they have been above us four times. Of course we have both flirted with relegation at times, although our lowest finishing position has been 13th, whereas today’s opponents have finished closer to the trap door with final positions of 14th, 16th and 17th.

Our best finishes have been 7th and twice finishing 10th, whereas Southampton had a purple patch from season 2013-14 onwards when ending up 8th, 7th, 6th and 8th in consecutive seasons. Even when we had that marvellous last season at Upton Park finishing 7th, they pipped us to end up one place and one point above us. Southampton have picked up 341 points in those 7 seasons (average 49) compared to our 334 (average 48).

If you calculate the average finishing position in those 7 campaigns then we both have identical results, showing an average of 11th. The head to head record in the period matches the all-time historical record with West Ham winning more games than our South Coast opponents. In the 15 games since promotion, West Ham have won 8 to Southampton’s 4 with 3 drawn games. We have won the last 4 meetings – until then the records were equally matched. The record when we have been the home side reads won 5 and lost 2 in 7 meetings, scoring 16 goals and conceding 9.

After a few games this season it looked like we were going to overtake Southampton in the comparisons since promotion. We started the season well and Southampton were languishing close to the bottom. However our form had slumped by the time we visited Southampton a few days before Christmas, and both managers were under pressure. On that day we won 1-0 with a goal from Sebastien Haller to relieve the pressure building on Manuel Pellegrini, whereas our opponents remained in the relegation zone.

But following that day Southampton’s season took off collecting 16 points from the next seven games to climb into the top half of the table. They haven’t kept up that pace in the last few games, but nevertheless they sit in a comfortable 12th place in the table on 34 points, 10 clear of ourselves – of course we are in the danger zone in 18th.

We are at that stage of the season now with just eleven games to go when games such as these are almost “must win” fixtures for us. It is not quite critical yet, and a win would see us leapfrog Aston Villa (who play in the Carabao Cup Final this weekend), and could see us move above Bournemouth if they fail to beat an out of form Chelsea side. That would be a boost.

There are currently 5 teams that are not averaging a point a game, and Brighton in addition are just above that figure. It seems likely that the three relegated teams will come from those six unless one of the teams immediately above has a disastrous run (similar to the one we have had!). 37 or 38 points could mean safety and that would probably mean four wins and a couple of draws. There are no guarantees of course but that might be enough. It’s sad though isn’t it when a season that started brightly has come to this. My prediction at this point sees us escaping the drop with Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth going down. But in reality, all of the bottom six teams have a number of difficult games, and it could be very different.

Bookmakers generally have 7 clubs in the mix for relegation, with current odds of about 1/20 Norwich (virtually already down), Villa 8/13, Bournemouth 10/11, West Ham 5/4, Watford 7/5, Brighton 11/2, Newcastle 6/1.

Even Brighton supporters, despite their points cushion at the moment, cannot feel comfortable, especially if they fail to beat Palace tomorrow, as their March and April fixtures are against Wolves, Arsenal, Leicester, Man United, Norwich, Liverpool, and Man City.

We can take heart from our visit to Anfield even though we took no points. Despite the obvious gulf in class we came closer to defeating them than most teams have this season in the Premier League. It’s a shame that our usual saviour Fabianski chose the game to have possibly his worst outing since joining us. He was obviously at fault for the second goal, and didn’t cover himself in glory for the other two either. But that’s water under the bridge now, so let us hope that normal goalkeeping service is resumed today.

I wonder what team we will see today. My selection would be:

Fabianski; Ngakia, Diop, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Rice, Snodgrass; Fornals, Anderson, Bowen; Antonio.

I am not sure Noble is up to two games in close succession and have gone for Snodgrass in a central midfield role for this game, with his dead ball delivery an important factor in my choice. Such a shame about the injury to Soucek – I thought he was looking like exactly the player we needed in midfield. I doubt that Mr Moyes will agree with my choice, but we can all play football manager when it comes to team selection.

I started this article by talking about the relative merits of the two clubs since promotion in 2012. In our first meeting in the Premier League following promotion, we comfortably beat Southampton 4-1 with a couple of goals from Mark Noble, one from Kevin Nolan, and a mazy dribble and finish from Modibo Maiga (remember him?). Adam Lallana scored for the Saints. If you go back to the very first meeting between the two teams at our ground in April 1900, the score that day was Thames Ironworks 4 Southampton 1.

What chance a repeat of the 4-1 win today? We’ll all be going home happy if we win by any score.

West Ham’s Escape Plan Revealed: Start Winning A Few Games Or Rely On The Coronavirus Pandemic

Not yet a ‘must win’ game or ‘we’re down if we lose’ but at home to Southampton is an important obstacle to overcome in the Hammer’s increasingly desperate battle for survival.

Recent events have proven that the world is about as prepared for a global virus pandemic as West Ham are for a Premier League relegation fight. With the level of anxiety rising on both fronts it has led to speculation on the possibility of the football programme being suspended or even abandoned as the consequence of a UK wide lock down on travel and public gatherings.

Imagine the outcry on Merseyside if the season were declared null and void some time in the next few weeks. It is not to be sneezed at! That is assuming there isn’t some footballing equivalent of the Duckworth-Lewis method that would be used to calculate final standings based on Opta Stats – no doubt, precipitating a raft of legal challenges.

For now, such a scenario will need to remain Plan-B, with a continuing focus on preserving Premier League safety through more conventional means – starting with Saturday’s home fixture against Southampton.

There was a notable improvement in the Hammer’s performance against Liverpool on Monday (when compared to the Manchester City game) and had it not been for the rarest of off-days by Lukasz Fabianski, one of the shocks of the season could have been on the cards. It is easy to understand fan’s frustration, though, as to why the same level of effort and commitment cannot be applied in all matches. For some reason the team have found it easier to play against Liverpool than City in both home and away fixtures this season. In the end, we expected zero points from those last two games and that is exactly what we got. More important now, however, is how the team shapes up for Saturday’s game. Will there be some carry over momentum from Anfield or will it be a return to the slow starting, low intensity team that we have been used to in the recent past?

Among the many West Ham weaknesses are an inability to break down hard-working, organised defences and preventing teams hitting us on the break. Southampton will provide a test on both fronts. Not throwing away another lead would also be welcome.

The Saints are 5th in the away table while West Ham sit just one off the bottom in the Premier League home table. Their style is well suited as a smash and grab away team in the modern style; not endowed with a great deal of midfield creativity but direct in rapid counter attacking and dangerous from set pieces -with a red hot striker at the moment in Danny Ings. They are, however, as prone to defensive howlers as the Hammers – as their goals against record (the same as ours) clearly illustrates, although nine of those did come in one game.

The question on all West Ham lips then is how will David Moyes set his team up to exploit Southampton’s weaknesses and deal with their obvious threats? Equally, what level of motivation will we see? Any chance of starting on the front foot, playing with energy and intensity, and giving the crowd something to get behind? The first twenty minutes could well be crucial in setting the tone of the game.

It is very unfortunate that Tomas Soucek is unavailable as he and Declan Rice could have provided a solid foundation in midfield to protect the defence, allowing Mark Noble to sit this one out. I would prefer not to see both Noble and Robert Snodgrass (too old and too slow in combination) on the pitch at the same time but fear that might not now be the case.

Popular opinion is that there should be starts for Jeremy Ngakia, Pablo Fornals and Jarrod Bowen. I would go along with that but difficult to know whether the manager sees it the same way. Moyes reverted to a back four at Anfield but possibly only due to the enforced absence of Arthur Masuaku. It would be foolish to change back again and I am hoping to see an unchanged back line. Key decisions will be a choice between Snodgrass or Fornals and whether Felipe Anderson is considered ready for two games in a week. Opinion is very divided about the clubs two most expensive signings – Anderson and Sebastien Haller. I can’t say either is delivering value for money but would start with Anderson (if fit enough) as he is the one player capable of the unexpected. I don’t see anything but the bench for Haller. This would be my starting eleven but think Moyes will opt for Snodgrass over Fornals for his dead-ball contribution.

lineup

Anthony ‘Red Card’ Taylor from Cheshire is the matchday referee with Stuart Atwell as his virtual buddy in Stockley Park. I was interested to watch Mike Dean coming across as quite human in the Peter Crouch podcast this week – a reminder that refs might not be as incompetent and aloof as they seem in real life. Worth a watch if you have ten minutes to spare.

At time of writing, Lawro has not published his predictions – I expect his default 1-1 setting. Charlie Nicholas, who predicts far too many West Ham wins for his own good, has gone for a 2-1 home win. It would wrong to call games ‘must win’ at this stage of the season but it surely is one of the contests that we would pencil in as winnable. Attitude might well be the match winner. Keep on your toes at all times. Beware the pace of Long and the predatory instincts of Ings. Defend those set pieces properly and make sure Lukasz has his catching gloves on. I can’t see a lot of finesse in midfield from either team and it could end up as a dead-ball contest. I am hoping a fast start can see us get our noses in front. But if we do, can we finally keep it there. It could be a stressful afternoon all round but I will go for 3-1.

The Incapables take on the Invincibles in the Monday night match. West Ham expectations are at an all-time low.

As West Ham visit Anfield for their annual charity giveaway, the big talking point is whether the Hammers will produce a shot on target

When Arsenal embarked on their famous ‘Invincibles’ season in 2003/04, West Ham were taking one of their regular sabbaticals in the Championship – and, thus, unable to put a spoke in the celebratory wheel. With Liverpool now looking a great good bet to emulate Arsenal’s feat, the Hammer’s have a final opportunity to make something of their season by snatching victory and becoming the ultimate party poopers. As long shots go though, this is a lob from well inside your own half.

Coming off the back of the latest disappointing and uncontested defeat to Manchester City, the instinct is to write off this match, get it out of the way with as little damage as possible to the goal difference. Without doubt, the performance at the Etihad was painful, but those supporters seemingly remembering a time when West Ham could come away from any game with an against the odds victory may have their nostalgia filter set too high  – maybe the occasional home win against a title chaser but rarely on the road – and even more rarely in the north-west. A quick reminder that the Hammers have recorded just one victory at Anfield since the mid-1960’s puts tonight’s game into context – and in some of those games we even had a decent team.

It is no stretch of the imagination to believe that tonight’s game will pan out in a similar way to last Wednesdays. We have little to offer in terms of competition to a relentless and ruthless Liverpool side that has only dropped two points all season. Not that this should be an excuse to throw in the towel before a ball has been kicked. We can accept and forgive heroic failure but not unconditional surrender.

David Moyes is doing himself no favours if he wants to earn any supporter sympathy. It is one thing to park the bus, it is yet another to abandon it and set it ablaze. Being content to concede possession is fine, if it provides an opportunity to hurt your opponent on the break – not so smart if you simply give the ball straight back whenever you gain possession. A gulf in class can be understood and tolerated, but it is still 11 against 11 and a team should never appear out-numbered – as West Ham so frequently do. Sadly, a collective lack of pace, and an absence of belief or commitment in individual players will likely prove our downfall once again – both tonight and possibly in the months to come.

It is easy to cherry pick statistics to prove a particular point but if you ignore the promising start to the season (11 points from the first 6 games) it gives you a return of just 13 points from the last 20 league outings – relegation form in any season.  It is all well and good having a run of winnable games on paper to end the season with, but the points still need to be won. Right now, it is not obvious how that is going to happen.

The good news from the weekend was an almost clean losing sweep for our relegation rivals with only Brighton (on the fringes anyway) picking up a point. With Norwich looking a lost cause, there remains a chance that two of Watford, Villa and Bournemouth will continue to struggle and save us from the drop. Watford and Villa were well beaten while Bournemouth fell to a VAR inspired defeat at Burnley – VAR at its finest in turning an apparent equaliser into a penalty at the other end. Not something that would ever happen to Liverpool.

Roly-poly referee, Jonathan Moss from West Yorkshire, will once again be on hand to ensure that most of the decisions go the host’s way. VAR responsibility, for picking up accidental handballs and offside shin pads while ignoring stamping assaults, will fall to Lee Mason. What a farce VAR has become, but at least it gives the commentators something to talk about.

TV pundits, Lawro and Charlie Nicholas, have both opted for a conservative 2-0 home win. The logic, I suppose, is that Liverpool will want to do just enough to ensure victory before calling it a day – game management as it’s known in common parlance. I don’t suppose there is any chance of Liverpool being complacent or over-confident?

It would nice to think that Moyes and his Hammers will make a game of it and give the long-suffering travelling support something to cheer. We did, at least, create a number of chances in the reverse fixture last month, despite being easily outplayed. Perhaps a combination of Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen in the most advanced players can ask a few questions of the Liverpool defence. Perhaps we will abandon the zonal defensive system that has left us so vulnerable from set pieces. Perhaps we won’t line-up as the slowest team in the league. Perhaps there might be a rare start for Pablo Fornals. Who knows what goes through a manager’s mind?

I heard a story many years ago about when Joe Louis was due to fight Max Schmeling for the world heavyweight boxing title in 1936. Louis was red-hot favourite and every newspaper correspondent except one tipped him to win. The dissenting voice figured that if Louis won no-one would be interested to remember his tip, but if Schmeling won (which he did) he would be able to dine out on it for years to come. On that basis, I am predicting West Ham to win 1-0 tonight – with a late Liverpool equaliser ruled out by VAR causing Jurgen Klopp to spontaneously combust.

COYI.

Liverpool v West Ham – a few facts to help you decide who is likely to come out on top!

Let’s examine a few facts to help us decide the potential outcome in tonight’s visit to Anfield.  But as they say in the world of investments “Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results”. As far as betting on the match is concerned, you can get up to 20/1 on a West Ham victory and 7/1 on a draw. I have seen 200/1 quoted for West Ham to repeat their 3-0 victory at Anfield in 2015. But some bookmakers don’t bother to quote odds for that scoreline, obviously believing that nobody would want to bet on it.

  • Liverpool have played 26 Premier League games so far this season. They have won 25 of them and drawn the other one, giving them a total of 76 points out of a possible 78.
  • They have been top of the league all season apart from after the first match when Manchester City were top on goal difference (as a result of winning 5-0 at the London Stadium!)
  • In the last 7 games between the two sides, Liverpool have won 5 of them and drawn the other 2, scoring 4 goals in 4 of the 7 matches.
  • In the Premier League (and Division 1 before the Premier League was formed), the two sides have met 57 times at Anfield. Liverpool have won 39, 15 have been drawn, and West Ham have won 3. The West Ham wins were in 1928, 1963, and 2015.
  • Liverpool have won their last 17 league games. The record for consecutive wins in the Premier League (and Division 1 before the Premier League was formed) is 18 held by Manchester City.
  • Liverpool have won their last 20 home league games. The record for consecutive home wins in the Premier League (and Division 1 before the Premier League was formed) is 21 held by ….. Liverpool!
  • Liverpool last lost a league game 14 months ago when they went down 2-1 to Manchester City. They haven’t been beaten in their last 43 league games, winning 38 of them.
  • In all their Premier League games going back to 7 December (11 matches), Liverpool have only conceded one goal (in a 2-1 victory away to Wolverhampton). But in their 8 league games prior to that they didn’t keep a clean sheet.
  • Since 1901, Liverpool and West Ham have met 140 times in all competitions. Liverpool have won 75, 37 have been drawn and West Ham have won 28.
  • West Ham once scored 7 goals in a game against Liverpool (1930). Liverpool have never managed more than 6 in a single game against West Ham.
  • David Moyes has been the manager 15 times in visits to Anfield. He has never won a game there.
  • West Ham have 5 points from their last 8 league games. On form in the last 8 games that is the poorest record in the Premier League.
  • West Ham have thrown away 19 points from winning positions this season. That is the most in the Premier League.
  • West Ham haven’t lost 5 away league games in a row for more than six years. We’ve lost our last 4!
  • Antonio has played against Liverpool five times in the Premier League. He has only failed to score in one of them.

Not many positives there! But at least almost all of the teams in the relegation battle with us lost this weekend (apart from Brighton who drew at Sheffield United).