Under The Hammers

Indiana Santo and The Villa of Doom: Roof Collapses on West Ham Escape Plan

Defeat might have been expected in Sunday’s Villa Park encounter but it was the disappointing nature of the performance which raises serious questions about the Hammer’s survival credentials.

A pivotal moment in the genre of action-adventure movies – the Indiana Jones franchise popular in the 1980s and 90s, for example – is when the protagonists must navigate a series of perilous traps, rotating blades, and concealed pressure plates to avoid an ancient booby trap that would seal an inevitable fate.

The West Ham escape plan seems very much like that. Either by accident or design, Nuno had hit upon a balance of personnel, formation and style of play which, with a good following wind, might just get them out of trouble. The problem is that there is zero margin for error. Take away a single component, attempt anything in the wrong order then an ancient curse is activated and the ground beneath our feet crumbles to dust.

The bad news had already been received a few days previously. Crysencio Summerville, the talisman of West Ham’s current revival, had yet to recover from the injury picked up in the FA Cup tie against Brentford. Will we come to regret this half-time substitution? But there was even worse news to come.

When the teams were announced it was no surprise that Nuno had opted to start with the eleven who had wrestled a precious point from Manchester City a week earlier. The subliminal message was clear. Another point here would do very nicely. Let’s face it, away at Villa Park wasn’t high on anyone’s the list of winnable games. The only grain of optimism being the hosts poor recent run of form in the absence of several influential midfielder players.

Whatever the game plan was going to be, it was thrown into disarray when Jean-Clair Todibo was injured in the warmup. Assuming they had trained all week with a three centre-back formation in mind, the obvious solution would have been a like-for-like swap. But nothing says a lack of trust in your £40 million, £100 per week backup better than deciding to disrupt the entire plan instead. If he can’t be called upon for this type of emergency, why is he on the bench in the first place?

What actually happened was a repeat of one of those genius Nuno moments from earlier in the season. A plan which, in his mind, was imagined as a complex game of four-dimensional snakes and ladders. Aaron Wan-Bissaka man-marking Morgan Rogers, Jarrod Bowen filling in as emergency right back, and Pablo Felipe deployed in wide left midfield. With Pablo and Tomas Soucek about as mobile in midfield as a pair of clowns on stilts, the game was lost before it had begun. No structure, no cohesion and no goal threat. The trap had been triggered. Darts flew, tunnels collapsed, and a giant rolling boulder thundered towards the West Ham goal as Villa awoke from their slumbers awoke to rediscover Champions League bound form.

To think that a few years ago the two clubs occupied a similar position as hopeful pretenders to the rich six throne. Oh, what a sprinkling of boardroom competence and ambition can bring you in the right hands. In contrast, all we have learned (to our cost) from West Ham’s board is that incompetence not only makes them bad at running the club but also prevents them from recognising how bad they are.

West Ham’s resistance lasted barely 15 minutes. Villa had been looking to target Mads Hermansen’s obvious weakness and uncertainty in the air at set pieces. But it was an alternative and well worked passing routine from a corner that drew first blood. The ball ending up with McGinn on the edge of area whose curled shot evaded the desperate dive of the Hammer’s keeper – who should have done better in my opinion.

The closest West Ham came to a leveller was in the immediate aftermath. Taty failing/ not trying hard enough to get firm contact onto a Bowen cross. After that it was one-way traffic with only the heroics of Konstantinos Mavropanos keeping the score respectable. Quite how referee Paul Tierney saw the excellent tackle on Watkins as a penalty is indicative of the ever-declining refereeing standards. For once, VAR did its job – clearly and obviously.

Watkins would get the last laugh, however, scrambling home in the 68^th minute to finally kill the game off. It was a textbook catalogue of West Ham errors. Bowen giving the ball away cheaply in the final third. Tomas Soucek so slow in tracking Roger’s run that even VAR had announced check complete before he caught up. And finally, Hermansen spilling Rogers’ tame shot into the delighted Watkins’ path. Game over!

There was just enough time remaining for a masterclass from substitute Adama Traore, showcasing his full repertoire of comical misdirected and overhit crosses.

In truth, it was a game that few expected to win. But nevertheless, it was a worryingly disappointing and passive performance from Nuno’s men. Yet, in the bigger picture; in the realm of take one game at a time management, nothing has been decided. The games that we might hope to win are still to come – home to Wolves, Everton and Leeds, away at Brentford and Palace. There are points still to win.

If something good can come out from the dreaded international break, it is the opportunity to get Summerville fit for the run-in. The future may depend on his recovery rate improving considerably on his previous seven-month absence.

Elsewhere, Nottingham Forest were the big winners from the weekend. Picking up three points from an unexpectedly comfortable romp at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium. It turns out that reports of the north Londoner’s corner turning had been wildly exaggerated. They will no doubt now be looking for yet another replacement caretaker manager. What’s Ryan Mason doing now? Leeds will regard it as two points dropped against Brentford on Friday night.

Time to regroup then Hammers. The most recent battle was lost but the war is not yet over. As one well known presidential politician put it in a late night post:

“West Ham United, very underrated team, by the way. People don’t talk about them enough, but I do. I know football, maybe better than anyone, and I’m hearing VERY STRONG things about their survival chances. Very strong.

The so-called “experts” are saying relegation. WRONG! Total losers. They said the same thing about my many great successes and look how that turned out. West Ham has tremendous fans, really incredible people, and a beautiful stadium. London Stadium, fantastic place, I’ve heard.

They just need a little confidence, maybe a few better decisions from management (won’t name names!), and they will STAY UP. I guarantee it. People are coming up to me, big fans, tough guys, saying: “Sir, West Ham has plenty of bubbles left to blow.” And you know what? They’re right.“

MAKE THE IRONS GREAT AGAIN!

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer runs again – and the margins tighten further as West Ham travel to Villa on Sunday

With eight games now remaining, Deep Block has been rebooted once more. West Ham’s survival equation continues to shift, and while nothing is settled, the picture is becoming clearer. Survival is still far from comfortable, but it is increasingly realistic.

Since the last run of the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, one more fixture has been converted from theory into fact, and crucially it was one that was previously written off as a free hit.

The latest result that was added to the model is last weekend’s unexpected 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City. That was predicted to be a defeat and a free hit. That point matters a great deal. The original projection assumed zero points from Manchester City. Instead, West Ham added one unexpected but fully deserved point, further improving the underlying survival maths and continuing the recent pattern of outperforming expectation.

Across the four games now completed since the first model was run, West Ham have taken 5 points, compared to an original projection of 2. That three-point swing can make all the difference.

Just as important as West Ham’s own result was what happened elsewhere. And nobody pulled away from us. Last week Leeds drew, Tottenham drew and Nottingham Forest drew. In fact all six teams at the bottom of the table drew. For the second week running, none of West Ham’s direct rivals managed to create separation. That collective stalling is increasingly significant.

The bottom of the table now reads:

• 15th: Leeds – 32 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 30 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 29 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 29 points
• 19th: Burnley – 20 points
• 20th: Wolves – 17 points

West Ham are still just one point below the lower safety line of one point per game. With eight matches left, Deep Block updates the numbers as follows:

• Likely safety threshold: 38–40 points
• Points currently held: 29
• Points required: 9–11 from the final 8 games

That equates to roughly 1.1–1.4 points per match, a rate that now closely matches West Ham’s recent form rather than exceeding it. The current form (last 6 league games) for the teams under consideration with points per game in brackets:

• West Ham 9 (1.5)
• Leeds 6 (1.0)
• Forest 3 (0.5)
• Tottenham 1 (0.2)

Even extending ‘current form’ to eight games the results don’t differ much. Points per game (last 8):

• West Ham 1.5
• Leeds 0.88
• Forest 0.88
• Tottenham 0.38

The margins remain tight, but the task is no longer extreme. Next up we travel to Aston Villa on Sunday, a difficult task but not meaningless. The fixture remains firmly in the low-probability column based on the season as a whole. Villa sit in fourth place in the table but current form is less impressive with just five points from their last six games, four points below our total. But Villa at home are aggressive, intense and well-drilled. It won’t be easy.

The draw against Manchester City has bought us a small amount of breathing room. This is no longer a game that must deliver points to keep hope alive. Instead, it is an opportunity to add further unexpected value. A draw at Villa Park would be an excellent outcome. Even defeat does not materially damage the model, provided West Ham continue to take points in the games that follow. The pressure here is asymmetrical: Villa need to win to justify their position; West Ham can afford to be pragmatic, compact and opportunistic.

Perhaps one of the most important fixtures of the weekend from a West Ham perspective happens elsewhere when Tottenham host Nottingham Forest. This is the definition of a relegation six-pointer between two sides struggling badly for form and confidence. So what are we looking for? A draw is perhaps the best-case scenario for West Ham, freezing both rivals in place. A Forest win drags Tottenham fully into the danger zone. A Spurs win prevents Forest pulling away but keeps Tottenham within touching distance. Either way they both can’t win and that matters. Incidentally Leeds are at home to an inconsistent Brentford side who are seventh in the table and have collected nine points from their last six, losing just once, results comparable to our own.

Leeds are often thought to be strong at home but have only won six of their 15 games. Tottenham have won just twice. Forest, like West Ham have collected more points on their travels than at home.

What has changed since the original supercomputer projection? The pattern is now clear. West Ham are picking up points where none were expected. Rivals are failing to capitalise on opportunities to escape away from us. The psychological pressure has subtly shifted up the table. Deep Block originally projected an 18th-place finish on around 37 points. Based on real results, that projection now sits closer to 40 – and crucially, with a far wider range of viable pathways to get there.

The original conclusions still stand. Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home remain decisive. Palace and Brentford away remain the most likely draw opportunities. If that all happened then we’d reach 40 points. But the margin for error has widened. West Ham no longer need everything to go perfectly. In conclusion the situation is still fragile, but increasingly viable. West Ham are not safe, we are not comfortable, but we are alive, competitive, and very much in the fight. We didn’t really expect that a few weeks ago did we?

With eight games to go, Deep Block believes survival is now genuinely achievable rather than merely hopeful. It may yet go to the final day. It may yet hinge on a single moment. And if it does, well, this is the West Ham Way.

The Fall and Rise of Nuno’s West Ham: A Path to Safety Or Too Little Too Late

The last two months has seen an amazing turn around in spirit and fortunes at West Ham. Will that momentum be enough to keep their heads above the relegation line?

Do you remember the coin pusher machines that were a common feature in seaside amusement arcades? Where no matter how many pennies you fed in, the moving tray refused to push the huge pile of cash over the edge and into the collection trough. Well, this season’s relegation battle is starting to take on a similar appearance.

This time last year, it was all over bar the shouting. Ipswich and Leicester were 12 points from safety and Southampton a further eight points behind them. In the final table, 26 points would have been sufficient to survive. This season, the pieces are far more reluctant to fall.

The weekend’s results were as inconclusive as it was possible to get. Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and ourselves each picking up a single point. Forest will be the most disappointed having dropped valuable points at home to Fulham. A point apiece for West Ham and Tottenham, however, probably exceeded expectations. But then, predicting the outcome of games as the season draws to a close and attention is focused elsewhere always becomes increasingly troublesome.

For the briefest of overnight moment, the Hammers managed to climb out of the bottom three for the first time since 30 November. While there’s no doubt the situation remains on a knife edge, it is West Ham who are the side with moment. Another great escape feels possible but, as they say, “there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”

When West Ham lost at home to Nottingham Forest on 6 January, it was their tenth consecutive game without a win. The Guardian match report opened as follows:

“West Ham are drifting towards the most gutless of relegations. The London Stadium was half empty on another dismal night, encapsulating the apathy gripping this miserable club, and it is hard to see a way out for Nuno Espirito Santo’s accident prone side after a combination of misfortune and dismal defending left them seven points below Nottingham Forest in 17th place.”

As well as being seven points behind Forest, they were eight behind Leeds and 13 behind Tottenham. Those gaps are now zero, three and one point respectively. The last six games table illustrates West Ham’s current momentum advantage. It is a period where the three rivals have won just one game between them – ironically Leeds victory over Nottingham Forest.

After the Forest defeat, many of us had already resigned themselves to relegation even if we didn’t say it out loud. Now, making the drop from the current resurgent position would be doubly disappointing. So, what has changed? How did we progress from gutless performances and dismal defending to the fighting spirit and dogged resilience that was on show against Manchester City?

The answer lies in a combination of factors. The arrival of Paco Jemez, an adventurous foil to Nuno’s caution. The signings of Taty and Pablo allowing higher pressing and creating space for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville to operate in. The introduction of Alex Disasi, a formidable presence in the centre of defence that has brought the best out of Dinos Mavropanos and Jean-Clair Todibo. Indeed, a defence that was once Keystone Cops and is now operating with all the competence and precision of a Formula 1 pit crew is one of the biggest turnarounds in my personal football memory.

The clincher, though, has been the ability to take the field without Lucas Paqueta and Max Kilman in the side. For different reasons each was detrimental to the cohesion, unity and team spirit we now see on the pitch.

The bottom line is a system that suits the players. One that is aligned with capabilities, that the players can understand, and which has bred belief and confidence. The antithesis of Potter’s ‘here’s how I want to play regardless of whether you can do it’.

Looking back, it is unfortunate that it took so long to get here. The slow recovery under Nuno could still be our undoing if we cannot outrun our opponents as the season draws to a close. In that sense, the improvement mirrors the Great Escape season of 2006/7 where Alan Curbishley only managed six points from his opening 12 games in charge – including a first day victory.

I am already starting to experience pre-match tension at the thought of having to win on the final day to preserve our Premier League status. I’m really hoping it doesn’t come to that.

As Richard pointed out in his latest Supercomputer article, the Manchester City fixture was something of a free hit in the run-in. They are the one team we rarely get anything from even in the best of times. So, to come away with a point was exceptional despite the ‘needs must’ pragmatic approach to the game. A 100% goals to shots ratio is a rare occurrence indeed.

It was a tremendous effort from the Hammers and further endorsement of the spirit that now exists within the team. I find it intensely irritating when the click bait sites feel obliged to hand out a 3/10 rating to whoever they claim ‘stank the place out’ this weekend just to justify a headline. These are not fan sites!

As much as it was a team performance, Mavropanos and Todibo were both superb at the back with excellent support from Disasi, Diouf and Hermansen in goal. It is a solid foundation for the remaining eight games and the FA Cup adventure to come.

As far as Manchester City are concerned, they are well below the standards they have set for themselves in previous seasons. They are not yet out of the title race – with a game in hand and a home fixture with Arsenal to come – but the current side lacks the charisma it once had in the shape of Kompany, Toure, De Bruyne, (David) Silva and Aguero.

It’s possible that we are seeing the end of days for Pep Guardiola as City manager. I would love to see him prove his chops outside a big two club in any league. Just to see how good he really is without boundless funds to support him.

Next stop for West Ham is Villa Park next Sunday. The Villains have experienced a massive injury inspired slump over recent weeks and have a midweek Europa League tie in midweek to overcome. It might not be as formidable a test as it once appeared. If Summerville makes a return from injury, I could even be quietly confident. COYI!

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer has been rebooted to re-run West Ham’s survival equation

With nine games to go the supercomputer has updated the maths behind West Ham’s chances of staying up. Survival that once looked desperate is now doable. We are not safe or comfortable but it’s closer than it looked a few weeks ago.

Since the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, last ran its projections (prior to the Bournemouth game) three of the twelve remaining fixtures have now been completed, replacing twelve hypothetical outcomes with more hard data to assess our survival chances.

Results from those games:

West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth (H) – Draw (predicted draw)
Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (A) – Loss (predicted loss)
Fulham 0-1 West Ham (A) – Win (predicted draw)

These results delivered 4 points from a possible 9, outperforming the original projection of two draws and a loss from these fixtures by two points. In particular, the away win at Fulham is a significant upgrade on the supercomputer’s expectations and materially improves the survival equation.

After 29 matches, West Ham now sit 18th in the Premier League with 28 points, level on points with Nottingham Forest in 17th but behind on goal difference. The teams in the relegation dogfight (the bottom six) currently read:

• 15th: Leeds – 31 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 29 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 28 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 28 points
• 19th: Burnley – 19 points
• 20th: Wolves – 16 points

Crucially, the safety line is currently 29 points based on the season to date (exactly a point a game), meaning West Ham are now just one point behind that current safety level, with momentum firmly shifting in our favour.

With 9 games remaining, the survival target can now be recalibrated:

• Likely safety threshold at current performance levels: 38 points
• Points currently held: 28
• Points required: 10 from the final 9 matches

That equates to 1.11 points per match, which is lower than the rate required in the original model and less than West Ham’s recent form (1.33 per match in last six games).

Of course, results elsewhere can change the safety threshold and 38 might not be enough. But based on current figures Deep Block believes that a spread of 38-40 will be the level needed.

The upcoming schedule still presents major challenges, but the pressure has eased slightly thanks to the win at Fulham:

Manchester City (H) – Free hit
Aston Villa (A) – Low probability, but a point possible
Wolves (H) – Must‑win
Crystal Palace (A) – Likely draw but winnable
Everton (H) – Crucial and winnable
Brentford (A) – Likely draw
Arsenal (H) – Low probability
Newcastle (A) – Low probability
Leeds (H) – Potential season‑definer, perhaps must win?

The original identification of Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home as decisive fixtures to win remains valid. The difference now is that the margin for error has widened slightly.

What has changed since the original projection? The Fulham win is pivotal; it reduces the required points tally and shifts psychological pressure onto our rivals. Forest and Tottenham have failed to pull away allowing West ham to close the gap. Burnley and Wolves are effectively gone, leaving only one realistic relegation place still in play.

Deep Block originally projected a 37‑point finish and 18th place. Based on real results to date, that projection now reads closer to 39 points. Our survival chances have improved materially over the past three games. While relegation remains a genuine risk, the path to safety is now clearer and more achievable than when the original model was run.

If West Ham can beat Wolves, Everton and Leeds, and add two draws elsewhere (the games at Palace and Brentford are the most likely) as per the original forecasts then Deep Block predicts that Premier League survival is more likely than not. But the margins remain tight and depend upon results elsewhere. Failure to achieve the predicted eleven points from these games will likely need points gained elsewhere in the more challenging fixtures.

Assuming that Burnley and Wolves are as good as down (albeit not yet mathematically) the current form (last six games) of the four teams likely facing the final relegation place is as follows:

West Ham: 8 points
Leeds: 5 points
Forest: 3 points
Tottenham: 1 point

If that form continues into the final nine fixtures then we would be home and dry. But the games towards the end of the season tend to be unpredictable. Three games ago Deep Block predicted that we would probably just fall short. It now predicts that we might just be safe. It may yet come down to the final day. And if it does, well this is West Ham. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

West Ham Treble Dream: FA Cup Success, Premier League Survival and Tottenham Relegation

Happy Hammer Talk. You got to have a dream, if you don’t have a dream. how you gonna have a dream come true?

I didn’t get to watch Monday evening’s cup match live and so ended up following the penalty shootout on the LiveScore phone app. It brought back memories of waiting for Ceefax to refresh. The text version delivered the same result but without the beauty of witnessing five expertly taken spot kicks – and the stupidity of Ouattara’s Panenka.

Pre-match speculation centred on how the two managers would approach the game. With the Hammers mired in a relegation battle and Brentford with an outside chance of European qualification, would it be another contest between two makeshift second string teams? As it turned out, both managers (to their credit) named near full-strength sides. Giving the mother of all cup competitions the respect its rich and glorious history deserves.

I’m at a loss to understand why Fulham and Sunderland had elected to rest key players for their ties over the weekend. Appropriately, both felt the wrath of the football gods – ejected from the competition to concentrate on securing tenth place in the league.

When West Ham and Brentford took the field, they already knew that a home tie against Leeds awaited the victors in the sixth round. It was yet more evidence of TV’s grip on football when schedules are deemed more important than traditions.

The game itself made for a lively hard fought cup tie. The Hammers should really have wrapped the game up in normal time but for the third round in succession had to endure an energy sapping period of extra time to reach a conclusion. Then came the penalties. I’ve never been a fan of settling games by penalties but there’s no denying they are dramatic. The tension wasn’t obvious on my phone when Dinos Mavropanos stepped up to take the deciding kick, and I can imagine how nervous it was in the ground. And what a strike it was to win the game. From Greek Tragedy to Greek God in 12 yards.

West Ham had made it through to the quarter finals for the first time in ten years, and only the second time since the Liverpool final of 2006 which we don’t talk about– a far less happy penalty shootout experience. Avoiding the ‘big’ teams in the draw means progression to the semis is a distinct possibility although Leeds will be no pushover. Beyond that, a good following wind and the jeopardy of two one-off games are all that remain.

If you are looking for omens from previous FA Cup wins then you will be delighted to know that eliminating London opposition has been the consistent feature. It was Charlton and Orient in 1963/4, QPR, Arsenal and Fulham in 1974/5 and Orient and Arsenal in 1979/80. The minimum requirement for a 2025/6 win has already been met (QPR and Brentford), setting things up nicely for a final victory against Chelsea or Arsenal.

The mistakes of 1922/3 and 2005/6 were in not playing any London teams at all on the road to Wembley/ Cardiff.

For all the heady excitement of cup football it is a return to the harsh realities of Premier League survival at the weekend. With Wolves and Burnley effectively out of the picture, the final relegation place is almost certainly between West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. Nine games to save their respective skins.

The good news for West Ham is that they are the form team of the four as the following table shows.

If the form of the last six and/ or ten games was extended over the remaining games, then West Ham would top the mini league on 40/ 41 points. Tottenham would be relegated on 31/ 32 points. Unfortunately, there are sure to be hiccups along the way to prevent this ideal outcome playing out.

I’ve seen lots of online debate about who has the hardest/ easiest run-in, but it’s fairly inconclusive in my opinion. Especially where results become more unpredictable as the season draws to a close and players have one eye on the beach, glamourous finals or World Cup call-ups. Those in the boardroom might wring their hands over the incremental rewards of each rung of the Premier League table. But I doubt it’s much of a motivating factor for players, unless European qualification comes along with it.

The less good news for the Hammers is that the two games before the international break are against Manchester City and Aston Villa. It is over 10 years since we last beat the Abu Dhabi outfit. A run that includes17 defeats and just three draws. The chink of light is maybe they are not as formidable as they once were, and that the game is sandwiched the two legs of their annual Champions League encounter with Real Madrid. A defeat tonight in Madrid followed by an air traffic controller’s might tilt the scales a little in our favour.

The Villa game might also offer hope if they continue to be without the influential midfield presence of McGinn, Tielemans and Kamara.

It is important that the Hammers keep a degree of momentum and two or three points from those two games would be awesome (but unexpected). They are games which do not feature high on my list of ‘winnables’ but there is a psychological need to keep the gap manageable.

It was great to see the return of Pablo on Monday night. Although he has yet to bother the scorer, his presence does appear to have made a clear difference if results are anything to go by. If we mark the QPR cup game as the start of the West Ham recovery, then they have won an impressive seven from 11 in all competitions since.

The less encouraging injury news concerns Crysencio Summerville who has very much been at the centre of the recent uptick in performances and results. There’s a lot of internet noise about the severity of his injury and so everything will be kept crossed for a speedy return. The last time he went off injured, he wasn’t seen again for seven months. Get well soon. COYI!

The Big Names Advance in the FA Cup As West Ham and Brentford Chase A Place In The Last Eight

As West Ham prepare to face Brentford for a place in the FA Cup Quarter Finals, do the biggest Premier League clubs really lack interest in the FA Cup?

West Ham host Brentford on Monday evening with a place in the FA Cup quarter‑finals at stake, completing the fifth round of the competition. The tie offers an intriguing contrast in styles and priorities, with both clubs viewing the FA Cup as a genuine opportunity for progress, but for us of course the priority has to be ensuring that we are playing Premier League football next season. Nevertheless I would like to think that we really want to progress in the competition, but no doubt some would disagree and want us to forget the cup and concentrate on survival.

I’d like to think that West Ham will see the match as a chance to build momentum and pursue silverware. With (hopefully?) a strong home atmosphere at the London Stadium, I hope that we approach the game aggressively, particularly given the success of several elite clubs already reaching the quarter‑finals. I believe that progress in the competition would add to the progress that we have made in previous weeks.

Brentford, meanwhile, have shown themselves to be well‑organised and difficult opponents. Their tactical discipline and ability to frustrate ‘stronger’ teams make them a dangerous proposition, especially if we fail to control the tempo of the game. Brentford’s willingness to press and counter could prove decisive.

With no replays and everything decided on the night, the match is likely to be tense and finely balanced. The winner will join an increasingly elite group in the quarter‑finals, further underlining the FA Cup’s continued relevance in modern English football.

In recent years, it has become common to argue that the biggest Premier League clubs are no longer truly interested in the FA Cup. This theory is based on factors such as fixture congestion, financial priorities and the growing importance of European qualification. However, the progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals of the 2025–26 FA Cup strongly challenges this assumption and suggests that elite clubs still value the competition.

Those who argue that big clubs lack interest point primarily to the modern football calendar. Top Premier League sides regularly compete in domestic league matches, European tournaments and the cup competitions, often playing many extra matches in a season. With payment for league position and European qualification offering far greater financial rewards than the FA Cup, managers are frequently accused of prioritising league position over cup success. Heavy squad rotation in early rounds is often cited as evidence that the FA Cup has been relegated to secondary importance.

There is some validity to this argument. Elite managers are under pressure to manage player workloads and avoid injuries, particularly during decisive stages of the league season. As a result, weakened line‑ups can increase the likelihood of shock exits (Crystal Palace for example) reinforcing the perception that the FA Cup is expendable. However, rotation alone does not necessarily imply disinterest. Instead, it reflects the depth and resources available to top clubs in the modern era. Two in particular, Arsenal and Manchester City possess squads strong enough to rotate without abandoning competitiveness.

I fail to understand why mid-table clubs such as Palace and Fulham (on Sunday) cannot do a better job of squad rotation to ensure progress in the competition. I know that league position brings a bigger financial reward but fans have other priorities. Take Fulham yesterday for example. I’m not their manager but if I was I’d start with my strongest team, try to get a goal or two and then rest some players. But no, Southampton held them and then Silva brought on the big guns late in the game (too late), only for the Saints to progress with a penalty in added time. It serves them right.

I’m not sure if Sunderland did the same but you wouldn’t expect a mid-table Premier League team with nothing else to play for other than league position to be beaten by the side at the foot of League One.

The 2025–26 FA Cup provides strong counter‑evidence to the theory of declining interest. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City were the first four teams to reach the quarter‑finals, and all did so by negotiating challenging fixtures (well perhaps not Arsenal!). These were not symbolic victories or dead‑rubber matches; they involved competitive performances, often away from home, against motivated opposition. The presence of four of the Premier League’s most successful clubs at this stage suggests clear intent rather than indifference.

Furthermore, success in the FA Cup still carries significant prestige. It remains the oldest domestic cup competition in world football and continues to offer silverware, historical significance and a route into European competition. For managers judged on trophies and for clubs seeking to maintain winning cultures, the FA Cup remains an important objective. Once teams reach the latter stages, selection patterns typically reflect this, with stronger line‑ups and increased tactical focus. And there is nothing better for the fans than a day out at Wembley. This now extends to the semi-finals as well as the final. Our victories in 1964, 1975 and 1980 live long in my memory even though they are now many years in the past.

In conclusion, while financial realities and fixture congestion have changed how elite clubs approach the FA Cup, they have not removed its importance. The progress of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City into the quarter‑finals demonstrates that the biggest Premier League clubs are still invested in the competition. Rather than abandoning the FA Cup, they are managing it strategically, ensuring competitiveness without sacrificing broader season objectives. I hope that we can join them in the draw for the quarter finals. Southampton or Port Vale at the London Stadium would be good if we progress. What are the chances of the ‘big four’ avoiding each other? That would get the conspiracy theorists going. COYI!

The Return Of The Set Piece Chumps And West Ham’s Financial Oblivion

Woe, woe and thrice woe for West Ham as their set piece vulnerability returns with a vengeance in heavy loss at Liverpool.

History has a way of repeating itself at West Ham.

When Graham Potter replaced Julien Lopetegui, there was zero overall improvement in the team’s results. But he did manage to plug the gaping holes in what had been a disastrously leaky defence. In Potter speak: “we were competitive in every game despite eventually losing.”

This newfound defensive resilience however did not survive the summer break as the Hammers conceded goals left, right, and centre at the start of the campaign. And were especially vulnerable from set pieces. Once again, the arrival of a new manager – this time in the shape of Nuno Espirito Santo – initially did little to impact the club’s overall trajectory. Except, that defending from corners and free kicks did significantly improve. Until Saturday that is.

Premier League football is rapidly becoming defined by either breakaway goals or set piece shenanigans. Facilitated by the expected level of ineffectual and inconsistent refereeing, every corner kick promises to be a messy tangle of pushing, shoving, bundling, holding, blocking and shirt tugging. What an indictment it is of the beautiful game that scrambled goals from corners are the principal weapon of this year’s potential champions. How long before we have a Golden Dead Ball – Ballon Mort d’Or – awarded each season to the most profitable set piece coach?

Although Liverpool are latecomers to the Premier League party of corner kick aerial bombardment, it is something they have embraced wholeheartedly in recent weeks. Games are now won and lost in a six-yard box battlefield which has become no place for passengers or onlookers. West Ham were typically ill-prepared for such an assault with the three goals it earned the home side in the opening 45 minutes effectively killing the game.

Defending is a collaborative discipline, and most goals are down to collective failure rather than individual error. But having said that, the slight Mads Hermansen looks totally unsuited to the physical challenges that opponents can unleash at set pieces. He is far better than Alphonse Areola with the ball at his feet but as a shot stopper and for aerial ability he is obviously worse. A keeper who lacks presence, who is unable to dominate in the air always spreads panic and uncertainty across the entire defence. We have seen how this works repeatedly over the years. Hermansen had done OK on his return to the first team but when put under physical pressure for the first time, the terrified keeper from early season was back for all to see.

It’s not that others weren’t implicated in the goals. Mateus Fernandes could have been stronger in clearing the lines before goal number one; Aaron Wan-Bissaka inexplicably refusing to get close to Gakpo for the fourth. But, for me, too much of the vulnerability stemmed from a lack of belief in the keeper.

Aside from the goals conceded, there were some positives to the Hammer’s performance. They had plenty of the ball, heads didn’t drop and if games were settled on xG we would be laughing.

It is either paradox or coincidence that West Ham have failed to win any of their league games since the injury sustained by Pablo. Nuno’s effective tactical approach, discovered by accident, having fallen apart due to the unavailability of one technically limited component.

A second positive from the weekend was defeats for all the other relegation ‘hopefuls.’ We are in no worse a position than we were a week ago but have one fewer game to make up the deficit. While I had Liverpool down as the least winnable of our remaining games, the visit to Fulham is one of the potential victories if we are to survive. It will be the second favour of the week to be asked from the Cottagers if we are to pull it off. To win, Nuno must earn his corn with a more front foot lineup than we saw at Anfield. Possibly starting with both Taty and Callum Wilson up front.

***

West Ham’s long awaited accounts were finally published at the back end of last week. Although largely consistent with all the estimates leaked during the preceding months, this didn’t prevent a social media furore over the bleakness of the accounts. Confirmation of what a badly run club West Ham is.

It was a given that the absence of European competition and poor league performance would severely hit the broadcasting revenues on which the club is overly reliant. It is a situation that will not be improved by the next set of account due to continuing struggles on the pitch and the constraints of not having operational control of the stadium.

From my perspective there are two ways of looking at football finance. One is what must be done to comply with PSR/ FFP regulations. The other is the appetite of owners to invest in the club and what they hope to achieve from their ownership.

If West Ham survive this season, it will be the last year of PSR. Relegation would upset the whole apple cart; there is no doubt about that. But I’ll go no further down that particular rabbit hole until necessary.

As far as PSR for the current season is concerned, West Ham loss of £104 million in 2024/25 would be added to the prior season’s profit of £57m. On the face of it, this allows a £47m loss in 2025/26 to stay within the three-year £105m loss limit. However, these numbers do not take account of allowable deductions for women’s football and youth and community development. Over three years this might total anywhere between £35 to £50 million according to the estimates I have seen. Thus, allowable PSR losses in the current season could be up to £97 million.

I have no idea whether this still leaves West Ham in a hole. If it does, then selling a stake in the women’s team may be the preferred or only avenue available. Relying on player sales would be problematic as they would need to be completed by 31 May to appear in this year’s accounts.

When it comes to club ownership, we can see from the wider world of football that no-one buys a football club any more in the hope of making annual operating profits. Sustained success almost always requires surplus revenues to be ploughed straight back into player transfers and wages.

The allure of football club ownership is either asset appreciation, personal prestige, or to further other non-financial goals. Owning a club is like owning a rare piece of art. Something to show-off about and then sell for a hefty profit at some point in the future. Or else ownership is a vehicle to promote outside business interests or for the purposes of sovereign state soft power.

For most owners, a football club is a high-risk, low-income investment in the short term. With the potential for massive, high-prestige, long-term capital appreciation in the future. If West Ham’s owners can’t or won’t play that game, then they should get out. It is not a business where success can be achieved through penny pinching and seat of the pants management. COYI!

West Ham – The Fight For Survival – Eleven Games. No More Margin for Error

With 11 games left and 25 points on the board, West Ham United’s season has reached the point where every kick, every decision, every missed chance feels heavier than the last. The maths is simple. The reality is anything but.

Most signs point to 38 points being the absolute minimum number this season. That means we need at least 13 more points between now and May. Not impossible. But there’s no room left for wasted opportunities.

Last weekend’s 0–0 draw with Bournemouth felt like one of those moments we may look back on. It wasn’t a bad result. It wasn’t a disaster. But it felt like two points dropped. When rivals are slipping and the door is ajar, you have to force your way through.

Because doors don’t stay open for long in relegation battles.

A Fixture List That Pulls No Punches

There’s no hiding from it: the run‑in is brutal.

Trips to Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle. Home games against Manchester City and Arsenal. On paper, those are fixtures you circle and hope for a miracle. Anything from them is a bonus.

So where is this season really going to be decided?

At the London Stadium.
Against teams we have to beat.

Wolves (H)
Everton (H)
Leeds (H)

Those matches aren’t just important. They’re season‑defining. Lose any of them and the pressure multiplies instantly.

Away from home, trips to Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brentford carry just as much weight. Get something from those games and suddenly the table looks kinder. Come away empty-handed and the fear creeps in.

A realistic return across the run‑in might look like:

3 wins
3 draws
5 defeats

That gets us to 37 points.

And that’s the terrifying part.

Thirty‑seven might not be enough. Thirty-eight might not be enough either. We might need forty, or perhaps forty-two? From the realistic return above can we turn two of the draws into wins? That gets us to forty-one. I’ve a feeling that would do it.

Which means an extra goal in two games. A late winner perhaps? Holding onto a lead instead of dropping more points from a winning position. A moment or two of courage or quality could be the difference between survival and heartbreak.

Why Hope Still Lives

For all the nerves, this team has given us reason to believe.

Eleven points from the last six games tells its own story. Performances have improved. There’s fight again. There’s structure. There’s belief. This side looks far more like a team that expects to compete than one simply hoping to survive.

Keep that level up, and averaging just over a point a game from here isn’t unrealistic. It still might not be enough. Do we need 37, 38, 40, 42? Who knows? It’s not in our hands now.

But the warning is clear: the games we have to win must be won. There’s no safety net left. Lose those, and we’re relying on favours that rarely arrive.

The Bigger Picture

At the bottom, things are tightening.

Wolves and Burnley are almost gone. One relegation place remains, and it’s a scrap between several nervous clubs. Forest, Tottenham and Leeds all have reasons to worry. None are safe. Neither are we.

West Ham aren’t doomed. But we’re not comfortable either.

We’re on the tightrope now – every step deliberate, every wobble dangerous.

What This Comes Down To

Forget the spreadsheets. Forget the projections.

This is about:

Winning the games that matter
Turning home advantage into points
Finding something – anything – in the toughest moments

It’s about players standing up when it hurts.
About the crowd dragging the team forward when legs feel heavy.
About refusing to let the season slip quietly away.

Eleven games.
Eleven chances to fight.
Eleven chances to prove this club belongs here.

Do enough – and we survive.
Fall short – and we’ll spend the summer replaying the moments where it slipped through our fingers.

The season isn’t over yet.
But from here on, every game is a final.

Anatomy Of A Relegation: Why West Ham Are In Trouble And Is There Any Way Out?

As West Ham show late season signs of life is there any chance that the battle for survival can outrun the culture of neglect surrounding the London Stadium club.

I recently came across an online comment that it was “players who win games, not formations.” It’s an interesting opinion and not one that I agree with, but it does sit at the heart of West Ham’s battle to avoid relegation over the coming weeks.

Ultimately, the recipe for sustained success is a squad with depth in every position. There is no getting away from the strong correlation that exists between revenues, the money invested in players and success on the pitch. But it is not the full story. If it were, the role of the coach would be largely redundant, other than ensuring appropriate levels of fitness are maintained.

The core competence of the effective coach/ manager is to unlock the full potential of his squad through the tactical arrangement of players on the field. Attempting to achieve the optimum balance between defensive stability, midfield control and attacking strategies relative to the strengths and weaknesses of the players available. Tactics and formations must support those goals, but more importantly must be understood and achievable by those expected to exeute them. We must cut our coat according to our cloth.

While the club’s degenerating and chronic ill-heath has been years in the making – a poor diet of short-termism, cheap alternatives and superficial ostentation by an egotistical board – it is the disastrous managerial appointments in the wake of Moyes’ departure which would take prominence in the final autopsy report.

Lopetegui was puzzling. An apparently successful coach who was locked in a permanent state of confusion. No discernible style of play and a laboured tactical approach which was completely incompatible with the Premier League’s unswerving direction of travel towards pace, energy and athleticism.

If that wasn’t bad enough, what folowed with Potter was even worse. He was the perfect example of a man with a one size fits all plan who was determined to stick to it regardless of whether it would ever work again, or whether those involved were suited to playing it. No lessons had been taken on board from his calamitous spell at Chelsea. The operation had been a success even if the patient had died.

The we come to Nuno. At the end of the year, it had looked like a pattern repeating itself. A ten-game winless streak and countless points thrown away from winning positions had left the club teetering on the precipice. But then two things happened. Two strikers were signed in the transfer window and Paco Jemez was appointed as sNuno’s assistant. The resulting change of approach – whether by accident or design – suddenly produced a positive change of fortunes. Where only 14 points had been accumulated from the opening 21 matches, the last six have yielded an additional 11. A repeat of the great escape continues to be a long shot but at least it’s not impossible to imagine. All that’s needed is for multiple planets to align.

The challenge for Nuno is the weakness of the squad in depth and its reliance on key players for specific roles. We have already seen this following the injury to Pablo Felipe. Let’s be honest, Pablo is a wholehearted workhorse, not a thoroughbred, yet there is apparently no-one available to cover his absence. No-one to offer a physical presence, run around a lot, close down, and make a nuisance of themselves. Instead, it has required a re-shuffle. Abandoning the 4-4-2 that has underpinned recent improvements and reverting to the 4-2-3-1 which had proven so ineffective in the past. If an injury to Pablo can be this disruptive, what might happen in the long term absence of Bowen, Summerville or Fernandes? If there is a bright spot to the season, it is that we have been very lucky with injuries. Touch wood!

A midfield of Fernandes, Soucek, and Magassa (or Potts) simply doesn’t have the variety to worry opponents or unlock defences. Against Bournemouth, Fernandes had his least influential game for some time when playing the deepest of the three. While there was no-one from midfield to push forward regularly or get in the box to support attacks. With fewer threats to deal with, the visitor’s defence were able to double up on Bowen and limit his usual influence on the game.

Having said that, the Hammers created enough chances to win the game comfortably. This included an uncharacteristic four shots in the opening five minutes and a flurry of late attempts following the introduction of Callum Wilson. If only Wilson were five or six years younger!

I didn’t think the challenge on Bowen at the death was a penalty, even though Keith Hacket felt differently. Anyway, I’ve always been convinced VAR have started packing away that late in the day and will only get involved in their favourite pastime of disallowing goals. Refereeing decisions are increasingly a lucky dip that are impossible to second guess and too easily influenced by external factors. I’m looking forward to the time when AI (Artificial Inconsistency) can be introduced into the equation.

In a parallel universe, West Ham might well have won both their last two league games. What a difference an additional two to four points would make to the optics of the relegation fight. As it is, the Hammers remain marooned in 18^th place for the 12^th consecutive week. Saturday’s visit to Anfield is an unlikely springboard for escaping this current plight.

We can take a crumb of comfort from history where West Ham got out of a far worse position in the great escape season of 2006/7. The respective tables after 27 and 38 games are shown below. The Hammers earning 21 points from their final 11 games while Fulham took only seven points from their final 12. Had they not been presented with a get out of jail card by a very understrength Liverpool, they may well have been destined for the drop instead of our friends from Sheffield.

Few observers anticipate a repeat of such a feat this time around, but let’s not yet abandoned all hope. Richard’s analysis before the Bournemouth game estimated a 38-point finish for West Ham while this week’s Opta Supercomputer suggests the Hammers will be relegated with a meagre 36 points (see below). For perspective, the Opta Supercomputer managed to predict just three of last weekend’s ten Premier League games correctly. The computing equivalent of sticking a pin in.

If you are of a more optimistic nature, a repeat of the form from the last six matches would see West Ham surge to safety with 45 points. Wishful thinking, no doubt, but what else is there to look forward to. COYI!

West Ham’s Chances of Survival – The Under the Hammers Supercomputer Predicts

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, has been called into action to predict what might be necessary in the run-in for West Ham to retain their Premier League status. Geoff’s latest article confirmed that Deep Block has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42.

I asked Deep Block to consider the situation again and it ran thousands more permutations and it once again confirmed the belief that 42 points is needed to guarantee survival. It did however concede the Douglas Adams influence on the total needed and when asked if there was any leeway it confirmed that 38 points might be enough and now prefers to give a range of 38-42 points given the unpredictable nature of football. I asked it to consider West Ham’s chances of reaching the lower end of the range and this is what it came up with:

West Ham’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures (2025/26)

West Ham have 10 points from our last 6 games. Here are our final 12 league matches, with a prediction for each based on current form, opponent quality, and recent trends. Of course the current form of our opponents may be different at the time we come to play them:

Date	Opponent	Venue	Prediction & Rationale
21 Feb	Bournemouth	Home	Draw – Bournemouth are in good form, 9^th in the table and no team in the league can better their 14 points from their last 6 games, but West Ham’s home advantage could earn a point. This is one of the games where the difference between a loss, a draw and a win could be massive in the final analysis.
28 Feb	Liverpool	Away	Loss – Last season’s champions Liverpool are having a poor season by their standards, 6^th in table, but are strong at Anfield; historically a tough fixture for West Ham. They have 8 points from their last 6 games. A point in this game is unlikely but if achieved it would be an added bonus in the fight for survival.
4 Mar	Fulham	Away	Draw – Fulham are inconsistent, 12^th in table, with just 2 wins and 4 defeats in their last 6 games; West Ham could grind out a point, but this is one of the six away games where we have the best chances for a win.
14 Mar	Manchester City	Home	Loss – City are title contenders, second in the table and closing on Arsenal; they have 11 points in their last 6 games; West Ham will be big underdogs. We always lose this game and this season’s fixture is likely to have the same result. An unlikely point would be brilliant – Arsenal will be cheering us on.
22 Mar	Aston Villa	Away	Loss – Villa are flying high, currently third this season but only 8 points from last 6 games; a difficult away trip, but a point might just be possible although statistically unlikely.
11 Apr	Wolves	Home	Win – Wolves are struggling, bottom of the league 17 points from safety with no chance of avoiding the drop; a must-win for West Ham and a realistic three points, despite the adverse result and display in the away fixture.
18 Apr	Crystal Palace	Away	Draw – Palace are unpredictable, 13^th in the league with just 5 points from their last six games; a point is possible, but like the away game at Fulham this is one of the six away games where we have to hope for a win.
25 Apr	Everton	Home	Win – Everton are in good form, 8^th in the table with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games; West Ham’s home form could be decisive. It won’t be easy but at this stage three points will be critical if all goes to plan.
2 May	Brentford	Away	Draw – Brentford are solid, an unexpected 7^th in the current table and good form with 10 points in the last 6 games, but West Ham can take a point if we defend well. We meet in the fifth round of the FA Cup at the London Stadium before this game is played.
9 May	Arsenal	Home	Loss – Arsenal, top of the league, but faltering a little with 9 points from their last 6 games; they are likely to still be in the close title race; it will be tough for West Ham. This is an unlikely game to pick up anything unless Arsenal’s nerves are shredded at this point; they have been known to falter and panic as the season approaches a climax.
17 May	Newcastle United	Away	Loss – Newcastle are inconsistent but generally strong at home; but just 7 points from their last 6 games. West Ham will be underdogs, but at this stage anything from the game could be vital.
24 May	Leeds United	Home	Win – We will know what we need to do at this point if we are still able to survive. Leeds may still be involved but may well be safe by then; West Ham could take advantage if that is the case.

Summary of Points Projection

Predicted Results: 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
Estimated Points: 13 points from the final 12 matches

As West Ham currently have 24 points, this projection would see them finish on 37 points—right on the bottom edge of the predicted survival threshold of 38-42 points.

Key Insights

Crucial Matches: Home games against Wolves, Everton, and Leeds (and possibly Bournemouth despite their current form) are the ‘must-wins’. Points gained in other games will likely decide West Ham’s fate.
Tough Run-in: Fixtures against 8 teams currently in the top 10 are challenging, and 5 games against top 7 sides Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford and Villa especially so. Points from these five are very unlikely, but an odd one or two could be crucial.

Margin for Error: Slim—any slip-ups in crucial games could be fatal. Deep Block highlights the seven most crucial games are those against Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds. At least 14 points from those will probably be the minimum required unless some unexpected points can be gained from away trips to Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa, and home games against the top two, Arsenal and Manchester City

Current Record: West Ham have played 26 matches, earning 24 points, which is an average of 0.92 points per match.
Recent Form: In their last 6 league matches, West Ham have picked up 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats), which is an improved rate of 1.67 points per match.
Other Supercomputer Projections: Multiple models predict West Ham will finish with 36 points and in 18th place, which would mean relegation.
Required Rate for Survival: To reach the likely minimum safety threshold of 38 points, West Ham need at least 14 points from their final 12 matches—1.17 points per match. To hit the higher estimate of 42 points, we’d need 18 points or 1.5 points per match.

Fixture Analysis

West Ham’s remaining 12 fixtures include 8 matches against teams currently in the top half (top 10) of the table, with just 4 fixtures against teams in the bottom 10 (Fulham, Palace, Leeds and Wolves)
Our recent “upswing” (back-to-back wins before a narrow loss to Chelsea, and then a win against Burnley and draw against Manchester United) suggests we could maintain a realistic chance of survival if form continues. How important could the 20 points dropped from winning positions turn out to be?

Comparison with Other Relegation Teams

Burnley

Current Points: 18 from 26 matches (0.69 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 20 points from 12 matches (1.67 points per match) to reach 38 points—an unlikely jump given their form.
Projection: Burnley will finish with 28–32 points and be relegated.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Current Points: 10 from 27 matches (0.37 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 28 points from 11 matches (2.55 points per match) for 38 points—virtually impossible but still mathematically possible.
Projection: Overwhelming favourites for relegation, predicted to finish bottom.

Nottingham Forest

Current Points: 27 from 26 matches (1.04 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 11 points from 12 matches (0.92 points per match) for 38 points—achievable just if current form (9 points from 6 games) holds.
Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Tottenham

Current Points: 29 from 26 matches (1.12 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 9 points from 12 matches (0.75 points per match) for 38 points—a very real risk of relegation unless recent slide in form (2 points from 6 games) and instability improves.
Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Leeds United

Current Points: 30 from 26 matches (1.15 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 8 points from 12 matches (0.67 points per match) for 38 points—favourable position.
Projection: Most models predict survival, with Leeds finishing just above the drop zone.

Survival Chances: Odds and Supercomputer Predictions

Relegation Odds: Wolves and Burnley are overwhelming favourites for relegation. West Ham are the next most likely, with odds reflecting their precarious position but also their recent improvement. Tottenham and Forest are the next most likely with the bookmakers.
Our Supercomputer, Deep Block, Forecasts: West Ham are predicted to finish 18th with 37 points, just below the safety line. Burnley and Wolves are expected to go down, with Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds narrowly surviving.

Conclusion

Our survival chances are better than Burnley and Wolves, but slightly worse than Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. But taking into account the unpredictability of results it is too close to call at the moment.
West Ham’s realistic points per match is 1.0–1.2 if recent form continues, but we need to maintain or improve this to survive. Key matches will be decisive. If West Ham can win those, survival is possible, but the margin for error is slim. West Ham will likely need at least 38 points to guarantee Premier League survival this season, but a safer target would be 40–42 points given the competitiveness of the relegation battle. This means we must secure 14–18 points from our final 12 matches. Anything less could leave our fate dependent on other teams’ results.