#runin – Under The Hammers

With a visit to Brentford this weekend survival is still in West Ham’s own hands.

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer forecasts what will happen.

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has got it right once again. We beat Everton with a late winner from Callum Wilson. It was a nail-biting last few minutes wasn’t it? We were clinging on to a one goal lead while Spurs were drawing at Wolves, potentially opening the safety gap to four points. Then Spurs went ahead and it was back to two and then Everton equalised and we were back in the bottom three. Then it was almost too late but we did what we should have done earlier and went forward instead of this habit of retreating to hold on to a lead. And this time it worked and with four games to go we are two points to the good again.

Forest had taken the three easiest points of their season when Sunderland capitulated in 37 first half minutes, a disgraceful performance in my book. Leeds are almost, but not yet mathematically out of the relegation equation but three points in their forthcoming game at home to already relegated and Parker-less Burnley could ensure retention of Premier League football for them next season. Forest have daylight, so the smart money it seems is on West Ham and Tottenham arguing over the race to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

If say, Tottenham were to pull off a shock win at Villa who can be inconsistent (losing three of their last six games) and West Ham were to manage three points at Brentford then Forest could be dragged back into it if they fail to win at Stamford Bridge. Only ifs I know but they are still looking over their shoulder. Of course the ideal would be West Ham to win and Forest and Tottenham both to lose! The current position with four games to go:

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	40	+6
Nottingham Forest	16th	39	+5
West Ham	17th	36	+2
Tottenham	18th	34	0

Fixtures remaining (4)

West Ham: Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)

Tottenham: Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)

Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leeds: Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is tough but the away games are against sides not in form. Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious free hit and unlikeliest three points but how are they going to react as the season comes towards a close? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps more winnable than they might have seemed a while ago. Real three point trips? Brentford, for example have now drawn five of their last six games and lost the other one. Newcastle have lost their last four in a row. That leaves the final day game at the London Stadium at home to Leeds.

Spurs have all “pressure fixtures” stacked together. They are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home.

Forest’s difficulty is potentially believing they have done enough already. They may have but Deep Block believes they have the toughest run-in of the four. Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Newcastle is perhaps their easiest game of the four but a final day home game against an in-form Bournemouth team won’t be easy if there is still something to play for. Their five point cushion may seem comfortable at this point but it will become nervous for them if the gap narrows.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most likely to survive because they have points already earned and they have perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as three likely points. The smart money continues to be West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th.

Projecting forward to the final four games Deep Block believes the final table will be:

Team	Position	Points
Leeds	15th	45
Nottingham Forest	16th	42
West Ham	17th	41
Tottenham	18th	40

That gives Tottenham 6 points in the final 4 games, Leeds 5, West Ham 5, and Forest 3. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are akin to guesswork. At least after falling seven points adrift early in 2026 we’ve reached the stage where with four games to go survival is in our own hands. Anything can still happen. And it probably will. COYI!

With Everton visiting the London Stadium this weekend, here is West Ham’s Five Game Survival Path

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has nailed another one. We escaped Selhurst Park with a point. Views differ as to whether or not this was a good point, or whether it was a chance missed to open the gap over Tottenham to four points. Spurs also stalled. Their ridiculous celebrations when they went 2-1 ahead contributed to an additional eight minutes and hence Brighton’s equaliser in time added on. Their own fault you could say. Forest and Leeds took maximum points. That combination matters because with only five to play, the maths are starting to bite. Leeds and Forest have daylight, while West Ham and Tottenham may now be arguing over one chair to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	39	+8
Nottingham Forest	16th	36	+5
West Ham	17th	33	+2
Tottenham	18th	31	0

Fixtures remaining (5)

West Ham: Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Tottenham: Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton
Nottingham Forest: Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)
Leeds: Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is high-variance: Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious near-zero / free hit but how are Arsenal going to react to their lead at the top disappearing? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps “one point is fine, three points is a steal” trips. Brentford, for example have now drawn their last five games whereas Newcastle have lost their last three. The saving grace could be Everton (this weekend) and Leeds at home. Two games where the stadium can drag us over the line, but only if we turn up. We are the only one of the four teams in question who have three of our final five games at home. Could this be an advantage? We certainly really need to win this weekend, and not losing is imperative. If it goes down to the wire as many predict then the final day could be a party or a very nervous affair. It depends what points are in the bank before then.

Spurs have the opposite problem with fewer obvious bankers and loads of “pressure fixtures” stacked together. Wolves away is the gateway; lose or draw that and Spurs are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home. If they are to survive they probably need to turn ‘not losing’ into winning.

Forest’s difficulty is top-heavy, and Deep Block believes they may have the toughest run-in of the four. Sunderland, Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Their five point cushion may seem good at this point but if West Ham and Tottenham can win at the weekend and they lose then it may become nervous for them too.

Leeds have the biggest cushion and the game against Burnley at home could virtually clinch safety. They still have a big say with visits to Spurs and /West Ham so it’s not quite a done deal yet but very close to it.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most survivable profiles because they have points already earned and perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as “gettable” without squinting too hard. The battle line is West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th. West Ham’s path is clearer if they can win home ground fixtures against Everton and Leeds and treat Brentford and Newcastle as bonus territory. Spurs’ path is narrower. If they don’t beat Wolves away, they’re basically asking to hit an improbable points target and hope that everyone else plays along. If they beat Wolves though and West Ham don’t win then it changes again.

Looking at their last five games and projecting forward to the final five then it would seem very simple. Forest have collected 9 points, Leeds 8 points, West Ham 8 points and Tottenham 2 points. On that basis, Tottenham remain by far the likeliest to finish 18th unless they finally turn a draw and loss streak into a run of wins starting immediately. But we all know it doesn’t work like that. Football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are perhaps even more unpredictable. Anything can still happen. COYI!

West Ham Struggle To Escape Choppy Relegation Waters As The Baroness Abandons Ship

A topsy turvy week in the West Ham soap opera where the Hammers fail to take advantage of a Crystal Palace side going through the motions while boardroom intrigue comes to a head with the sudden departure of Karen Brady

As the plot of the Premier League season drifts inexorably to the defining battles of its third climactic act, the cast of protagonists remaining in the fight for death or glory gradually trends towards two. At the top, it’s between Manchester City and Arsenal. At the bottom, it is West Ham and Tottenham.

Just one short week ago, we might also have been scrutinising the results of Leeds and Nottingham Forest. But both have hauled themselves clear of the drop, and barring a last-minute calamity, their safety is assured. We should assume the relegation stakes is now a two-horse race. Just like in the movies, the minions, henchmen and associates have each fallen by the wayside to setup a final one-to-one showdown.

On one side, the down at heel, drifter hero. Sculpted from the school of hard knocks; defined by grit, loyalty, chaos and occasional big moments. On the other, the tragic north London prodigal villain. Arrogant, deluded, condescending, promising the earth but repeatedly falling short.

Who will be the last man standing? It’s a question of nerve, spirit, camaraderie, effort and the ability to score goals. And the last known survivor stalks his prey in the night, and he’s watching us all – with the eye of the striker.

The Hammer’s ongoing lack of cutting edge was to the fore again at Selhurst Park on Monday night. Goals were always going to be at a premium against Crystal Palace. Their games in the Premier League this season have yielded fewer goals scored at both ends (71) than any other club. Their goals against record bettered only by the top two.

But it was a good time to be playing the Eagles. Prepared to go through the motions in the league, the prospect of European silverware on the horizon, assorted injuries that wouldn’t be risked, and a soon-to-be departed manager. A priceless win was by no means out of the question.

Victory would have provided a massive psychological boost for West Ham. Providing extra daylight over Tottenham so that the gap was more than a three-point win. A goal was urgently needed during the Hemmers first half ascendency, but they were unable to find one. It was a stark reminder of the scant resources available to Nuno. Impossible to rely on Taty and Pablo as regular source of goals despite their obvious effort and nuisance value, the setup can only pay dividends if Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are on their A-game. Which they weren’t. Summerville still finding his way back from injury; Bowen mysteriously out of sorts. No surprise that the Hammer’s best chance again fell to Dinos Mavropanos – who might have done better, as they say on the TV.

The introduction of Mateta, Sarr and Kamada on the hour mark would ultimately change the complexion of the game. The hosts now on the front foot. Nuno had no such luxury upgrades on his bench, and it became a case of holding out for a point. West Ham did make two late substitutions – Wilson and Kante on for Pablo and Taty – but the game, which offered little in the way of entertainment, fizzled out even further. A fitting game for the I Don’t Like Monday’s graveyard slot.

I doubt there has ever been such a short highlights reel as the one posted by the club on YouTube. No overtime for the media team this week after he video and social media splurge that followed the Wolves game.

Our thoughts now turn to the return of the Moyesiah for Everton’s visit to the London Stadium on Saturday. The Toffees are another of the sides whose games rarely feature a goal fest – a total of 79 for and against. Both West Ham and Everton have each managed just 40 goals in 33 matches this season, although the visitors have a far superior record for goals conceded (39 to 57).

They come to London with an outside chance of European qualification in their sights. One of a cluster of clubs still dreaming of Europa League or Conference football next year. It’s been a good season for the former Hammer’s supremo and illustrates how effective he can be with Alan Irvine beside him in the dugout.

The wind was taken out of the Toffees sails somewhat last weekend when Liverpool grabbed an added time winner in the inaugural Merseyside derby held at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Even more damaging was a probable season ending injury to defender Jarrad Branthwaite.

The main threat posed by Everton comes in midfield where the Hammers can be easily overrun. Although no Kendall, Ball and Harvey, they have very capable players in Garner, Ndiaye, and Dewsbury Hall. It could all prove too much for West Ham’s pivot of Mathias Fernandes and Tomas Soucek which sees the latter almost exclusively on sentry duty these days.

The other big news story of the week was, of course, the sudden departure of Baroness Brady of Knightsbridge from her role as Vice-chairman of West Ham.

While the news was universally welcomed by Hammers fans across the world and saw spontaneous outbreaks of cockney knees-ups, the timing of the announcement is very odd – with just a few weeks of the season remaining. Perfect breeding conditions for all manner of theories and reports about the future scandalous revelations and changes in the club’s ownership.

The fascination with Brady has always puzzled me. A business career based entirely on her role as David Sullivan’s fluffer able to create a TV persona that presented her as a powerful and successful businesswoman. Riding the slipstream like the Andrew Ridgely of W Ham.

The statement put out by the club following her departure – signed by Daniel Kretinsky as Joint-chair – struggled to dig up too many notable achievements from her lengthy 15-year association with West Ham. Some guff about the London Stadium deal, shareholder transition and (for some reason) the British record transfer of Declan Rice.

As we now know, while the stadium contract might have been a great deal from a cost saving perspective, it is a millstone around the club’s neck when it comes to revenue generation. A massive own goal in an environment where revenues are increasingly the driver for assembling a strong and competitive squad.

The most plausible explanation for Brady’s exit, is that she finally fell out with Sullivan – probably over the disastrous appointment of Graham Potter. Our thoughts and prayers that he quickly follows her out of the door in the summer. With the B of ‘No More BS’ now out of the picture can the London Stadium generate an even greater buzz this weekend? We live in interesting times. COYI