Season – Under The Hammers

The trapdoor is open: West Ham’s Three Game Fight To Stay Up

One point behind Spurs, two realistically when you look at the goal difference, a brutal run-in, and no margin for error

Three matches rarely feel like a season, but that is exactly what West Ham are facing as the 2025–26 Premier League campaign enters its closing stretch. With two clubs already down and one final trapdoor still open, the Hammers’ run-in is less about style points and more about survival; we must turn the London Stadium into a pressure cooker, find points in all three games probably, and hope the margins fall our way.

The Premier League table explains the anxiety. After 35 games, West Ham sit 18th on 36 points with a goal difference of -19, one point behind Tottenham Hotspur in 17th on 37 points (Spurs’ goal difference is -9). Burnley (20 points) and Wolves (18 points) have already been relegated, leaving one remaining relegation place that now looks like a straight shootout between the Hammers and Spurs. Mathematically Forest and Palace are still involved but let’s be realistic; they are safe.

In practical terms, West Ham’s fate is no longer in our own hands. Being a point adrift means simply “matching” Tottenham’s results won’t be enough; West Ham need to outscore Spurs by at least a point over the final three fixtures. And if the clubs finish level on points, goal difference becomes pivotal. With Spurs ten goals better off, we cannot assume being level on points will save us unless we can dramatically swing the numbers in three games, a very unlikely and probably virtually impossible task at this stage.

That’s why the fixture list matters as much as the points. West Ham’s final three are brutally defined; Arsenal at home, Newcastle away, and Leeds at home. Tottenham’s closing schedule is Leeds at home, Chelsea away, and Everton at home. Both of us have two home games but on paper, (was it Brian Clough who once said games are played on grass not paper?) Spurs have the gentler run-in, while West Ham must find a way to take something from the league leaders and a recently resurgent Newcastle before a finale that could become a do-or-die game. I hope we still have a chance to escape when the final game comes around but it might be all over by then.

First comes Arsenal, top of the league and still with their own title business to finish. That cuts both ways for West Ham. Arsenal’s quality raises the difficulty level, but the stakes can also tighten a contender’s legs, especially in a hostile away environment. For the Hammers, the aim does not have to be perfect football; it has to be a plan that keeps the game alive, stay compact, manage the first 20 minutes, and give the fans a reason to believe that a point (or more) is possible. A defeat coupled with a Tottenham win over Leeds could almost be curtains for us. The deficit would then be four points, which with the goal difference taken into account would require winning the last two games and hoping Tottenham don’t manage more than one point from their last two.

If we still have a chance of survival when we reach the final game then that closing match at home to Leeds with a home crowd, familiar surroundings, and an opponent with less to play for could still be interesting. But final-day games are notorious for ignoring logic. If survival comes down to 90 minutes, West Ham will want to arrive with as much control over the narrative as possible, and I can’t see that happening under any circumstances. It would be a miracle to arrive here with it in our own hands. At best we would be relying on David Moyes’ Everton to lend a hand.

The reality is that unless we can pick up an improbable four points against Arsenal and Newcastle, which is what I expect Tottenham to get against Leeds and Chelsea then the final game of the season may well be our final game in the Premier League for at least a season and sadly, potentially longer.

Predictive models underline the scale of the task. Opta’s supercomputer has placed West Ham as the likeliest, projecting relegation in roughly three-quarters of its simulations. Deep Block, the Under the Hammers supercomputer, which has been bullish for the last nine games, is more pessimistic now and projects the drop at 93% likely at this stage of the season.

So what does survival likely require? Seven unlikely points might do it. That may not be enough though. Even three wins might not be enough but it probably would be and it would certainly make life interesting! Our chances are very slim but not mathematically hopeless. Not yet anyway. The survival path still exists, the margins are clear, and the incentive could not be sharper. The question is whether we can produce three defining performances before the season runs out of road. If I’m honest I don’t really think we are good enough. You reap what you sow. And sadly the seeds we’ve sown in recent times have produced the harvest that we deserve.

With a visit to Brentford this weekend survival is still in West Ham’s own hands.

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer forecasts what will happen.

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has got it right once again. We beat Everton with a late winner from Callum Wilson. It was a nail-biting last few minutes wasn’t it? We were clinging on to a one goal lead while Spurs were drawing at Wolves, potentially opening the safety gap to four points. Then Spurs went ahead and it was back to two and then Everton equalised and we were back in the bottom three. Then it was almost too late but we did what we should have done earlier and went forward instead of this habit of retreating to hold on to a lead. And this time it worked and with four games to go we are two points to the good again.

Forest had taken the three easiest points of their season when Sunderland capitulated in 37 first half minutes, a disgraceful performance in my book. Leeds are almost, but not yet mathematically out of the relegation equation but three points in their forthcoming game at home to already relegated and Parker-less Burnley could ensure retention of Premier League football for them next season. Forest have daylight, so the smart money it seems is on West Ham and Tottenham arguing over the race to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

If say, Tottenham were to pull off a shock win at Villa who can be inconsistent (losing three of their last six games) and West Ham were to manage three points at Brentford then Forest could be dragged back into it if they fail to win at Stamford Bridge. Only ifs I know but they are still looking over their shoulder. Of course the ideal would be West Ham to win and Forest and Tottenham both to lose! The current position with four games to go:

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	40	+6
Nottingham Forest	16th	39	+5
West Ham	17th	36	+2
Tottenham	18th	34	0

Fixtures remaining (4)

West Ham: Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)

Tottenham: Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)

Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leeds: Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is tough but the away games are against sides not in form. Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious free hit and unlikeliest three points but how are they going to react as the season comes towards a close? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps more winnable than they might have seemed a while ago. Real three point trips? Brentford, for example have now drawn five of their last six games and lost the other one. Newcastle have lost their last four in a row. That leaves the final day game at the London Stadium at home to Leeds.

Spurs have all “pressure fixtures” stacked together. They are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home.

Forest’s difficulty is potentially believing they have done enough already. They may have but Deep Block believes they have the toughest run-in of the four. Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Newcastle is perhaps their easiest game of the four but a final day home game against an in-form Bournemouth team won’t be easy if there is still something to play for. Their five point cushion may seem comfortable at this point but it will become nervous for them if the gap narrows.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most likely to survive because they have points already earned and they have perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as three likely points. The smart money continues to be West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th.

Projecting forward to the final four games Deep Block believes the final table will be:

Team	Position	Points
Leeds	15th	45
Nottingham Forest	16th	42
West Ham	17th	41
Tottenham	18th	40

That gives Tottenham 6 points in the final 4 games, Leeds 5, West Ham 5, and Forest 3. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are akin to guesswork. At least after falling seven points adrift early in 2026 we’ve reached the stage where with four games to go survival is in our own hands. Anything can still happen. And it probably will. COYI!

With Everton visiting the London Stadium this weekend, here is West Ham’s Five Game Survival Path

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has nailed another one. We escaped Selhurst Park with a point. Views differ as to whether or not this was a good point, or whether it was a chance missed to open the gap over Tottenham to four points. Spurs also stalled. Their ridiculous celebrations when they went 2-1 ahead contributed to an additional eight minutes and hence Brighton’s equaliser in time added on. Their own fault you could say. Forest and Leeds took maximum points. That combination matters because with only five to play, the maths are starting to bite. Leeds and Forest have daylight, while West Ham and Tottenham may now be arguing over one chair to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	39	+8
Nottingham Forest	16th	36	+5
West Ham	17th	33	+2
Tottenham	18th	31	0

Fixtures remaining (5)

West Ham: Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Tottenham: Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton
Nottingham Forest: Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)
Leeds: Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is high-variance: Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious near-zero / free hit but how are Arsenal going to react to their lead at the top disappearing? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps “one point is fine, three points is a steal” trips. Brentford, for example have now drawn their last five games whereas Newcastle have lost their last three. The saving grace could be Everton (this weekend) and Leeds at home. Two games where the stadium can drag us over the line, but only if we turn up. We are the only one of the four teams in question who have three of our final five games at home. Could this be an advantage? We certainly really need to win this weekend, and not losing is imperative. If it goes down to the wire as many predict then the final day could be a party or a very nervous affair. It depends what points are in the bank before then.

Spurs have the opposite problem with fewer obvious bankers and loads of “pressure fixtures” stacked together. Wolves away is the gateway; lose or draw that and Spurs are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home. If they are to survive they probably need to turn ‘not losing’ into winning.

Forest’s difficulty is top-heavy, and Deep Block believes they may have the toughest run-in of the four. Sunderland, Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Their five point cushion may seem good at this point but if West Ham and Tottenham can win at the weekend and they lose then it may become nervous for them too.

Leeds have the biggest cushion and the game against Burnley at home could virtually clinch safety. They still have a big say with visits to Spurs and /West Ham so it’s not quite a done deal yet but very close to it.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most survivable profiles because they have points already earned and perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as “gettable” without squinting too hard. The battle line is West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th. West Ham’s path is clearer if they can win home ground fixtures against Everton and Leeds and treat Brentford and Newcastle as bonus territory. Spurs’ path is narrower. If they don’t beat Wolves away, they’re basically asking to hit an improbable points target and hope that everyone else plays along. If they beat Wolves though and West Ham don’t win then it changes again.

Looking at their last five games and projecting forward to the final five then it would seem very simple. Forest have collected 9 points, Leeds 8 points, West Ham 8 points and Tottenham 2 points. On that basis, Tottenham remain by far the likeliest to finish 18th unless they finally turn a draw and loss streak into a run of wins starting immediately. But we all know it doesn’t work like that. Football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are perhaps even more unpredictable. Anything can still happen. COYI!

West Ham Struggle To Escape Choppy Relegation Waters As The Baroness Abandons Ship

A topsy turvy week in the West Ham soap opera where the Hammers fail to take advantage of a Crystal Palace side going through the motions while boardroom intrigue comes to a head with the sudden departure of Karen Brady

As the plot of the Premier League season drifts inexorably to the defining battles of its third climactic act, the cast of protagonists remaining in the fight for death or glory gradually trends towards two. At the top, it’s between Manchester City and Arsenal. At the bottom, it is West Ham and Tottenham.

Just one short week ago, we might also have been scrutinising the results of Leeds and Nottingham Forest. But both have hauled themselves clear of the drop, and barring a last-minute calamity, their safety is assured. We should assume the relegation stakes is now a two-horse race. Just like in the movies, the minions, henchmen and associates have each fallen by the wayside to setup a final one-to-one showdown.

On one side, the down at heel, drifter hero. Sculpted from the school of hard knocks; defined by grit, loyalty, chaos and occasional big moments. On the other, the tragic north London prodigal villain. Arrogant, deluded, condescending, promising the earth but repeatedly falling short.

Who will be the last man standing? It’s a question of nerve, spirit, camaraderie, effort and the ability to score goals. And the last known survivor stalks his prey in the night, and he’s watching us all – with the eye of the striker.

The Hammer’s ongoing lack of cutting edge was to the fore again at Selhurst Park on Monday night. Goals were always going to be at a premium against Crystal Palace. Their games in the Premier League this season have yielded fewer goals scored at both ends (71) than any other club. Their goals against record bettered only by the top two.

But it was a good time to be playing the Eagles. Prepared to go through the motions in the league, the prospect of European silverware on the horizon, assorted injuries that wouldn’t be risked, and a soon-to-be departed manager. A priceless win was by no means out of the question.

Victory would have provided a massive psychological boost for West Ham. Providing extra daylight over Tottenham so that the gap was more than a three-point win. A goal was urgently needed during the Hemmers first half ascendency, but they were unable to find one. It was a stark reminder of the scant resources available to Nuno. Impossible to rely on Taty and Pablo as regular source of goals despite their obvious effort and nuisance value, the setup can only pay dividends if Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are on their A-game. Which they weren’t. Summerville still finding his way back from injury; Bowen mysteriously out of sorts. No surprise that the Hammer’s best chance again fell to Dinos Mavropanos – who might have done better, as they say on the TV.

The introduction of Mateta, Sarr and Kamada on the hour mark would ultimately change the complexion of the game. The hosts now on the front foot. Nuno had no such luxury upgrades on his bench, and it became a case of holding out for a point. West Ham did make two late substitutions – Wilson and Kante on for Pablo and Taty – but the game, which offered little in the way of entertainment, fizzled out even further. A fitting game for the I Don’t Like Monday’s graveyard slot.

I doubt there has ever been such a short highlights reel as the one posted by the club on YouTube. No overtime for the media team this week after he video and social media splurge that followed the Wolves game.

Our thoughts now turn to the return of the Moyesiah for Everton’s visit to the London Stadium on Saturday. The Toffees are another of the sides whose games rarely feature a goal fest – a total of 79 for and against. Both West Ham and Everton have each managed just 40 goals in 33 matches this season, although the visitors have a far superior record for goals conceded (39 to 57).

They come to London with an outside chance of European qualification in their sights. One of a cluster of clubs still dreaming of Europa League or Conference football next year. It’s been a good season for the former Hammer’s supremo and illustrates how effective he can be with Alan Irvine beside him in the dugout.

The wind was taken out of the Toffees sails somewhat last weekend when Liverpool grabbed an added time winner in the inaugural Merseyside derby held at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Even more damaging was a probable season ending injury to defender Jarrad Branthwaite.

The main threat posed by Everton comes in midfield where the Hammers can be easily overrun. Although no Kendall, Ball and Harvey, they have very capable players in Garner, Ndiaye, and Dewsbury Hall. It could all prove too much for West Ham’s pivot of Mathias Fernandes and Tomas Soucek which sees the latter almost exclusively on sentry duty these days.

The other big news story of the week was, of course, the sudden departure of Baroness Brady of Knightsbridge from her role as Vice-chairman of West Ham.

While the news was universally welcomed by Hammers fans across the world and saw spontaneous outbreaks of cockney knees-ups, the timing of the announcement is very odd – with just a few weeks of the season remaining. Perfect breeding conditions for all manner of theories and reports about the future scandalous revelations and changes in the club’s ownership.

The fascination with Brady has always puzzled me. A business career based entirely on her role as David Sullivan’s fluffer able to create a TV persona that presented her as a powerful and successful businesswoman. Riding the slipstream like the Andrew Ridgely of W Ham.

The statement put out by the club following her departure – signed by Daniel Kretinsky as Joint-chair – struggled to dig up too many notable achievements from her lengthy 15-year association with West Ham. Some guff about the London Stadium deal, shareholder transition and (for some reason) the British record transfer of Declan Rice.

As we now know, while the stadium contract might have been a great deal from a cost saving perspective, it is a millstone around the club’s neck when it comes to revenue generation. A massive own goal in an environment where revenues are increasingly the driver for assembling a strong and competitive squad.

The most plausible explanation for Brady’s exit, is that she finally fell out with Sullivan – probably over the disastrous appointment of Graham Potter. Our thoughts and prayers that he quickly follows her out of the door in the summer. With the B of ‘No More BS’ now out of the picture can the London Stadium generate an even greater buzz this weekend? We live in interesting times. COYI

From Fragile to Manageable – West Ham’s Six Game Survival Path

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer projects the future.

West Ham’s survival maths has tightened again, but crucially, it’s tightened in our favour. The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, correctly called the Villa defeat and the Wolves win, and after that, and results elsewhere, the run-in now looks less like chaos and more like a plan. It’s in our own hands. We were right again, Villa away went as expected, Wolves at home had to be won, and was. Now at West Ham we have six games to save ourselves. And the pathway to survival is clearer than it’s been all season.

With six games now remaining, Deep Block has been rebooted once more. West Ham are still not safe, still not comfortable, but the survival picture is shifting from fragile to manageable. Since the last computer run, two fixtures have moved from projection into reality. West Ham lost 2–0 at Aston Villa and then thrashed Wolves 4–0 at the London Stadium. Both outcomes were in line with what the model expected, and that matters, because the difference between surviving and going down is often less about one surprising result, and more about reliably banking the points you must bank.

Villa Park was always low-probability for points, and so it proved. The 2–0 defeat was a blow at the time, but not a surprise, and not a result that rewrites the model. This was never the fixture West Ham’s season hinged on. You don’t build a survival plan around winning at a top-four side. You build it around what comes next.

That’s why Wolves mattered. And West Ham didn’t just win, we flattened them (at least in the second half we did!). In the original equation, Wolves at home sat in the “decisive” category, exactly the kind of game we couldn’t let slip. Those three points reduces uncertainty and reduces the number of “must-do” outcomes ahead.

The original model ran with twelve games to go. It predicted a draw at home to Bournemouth which was correct, a win at home to Wolves also correct, defeats at Liverpool, Manchester City and Villa, two correct and an unexpected free hit produced a point against City, and a draw at Fulham which turned out to be a win. We predicted that it was one of the away games where we could hope to turn a draw into a win which we duly did. So now we sit on 32 points, three points ahead of the original predictions, and two points above the bottom three with the run-in underway. We are last to play this weekend. Will we still be out of the bottom three when our game comes round on Monday?

Deep Block’s broad conclusion remains consistent with the previous run. The likely safety line sits around 38–40, which means West Ham are no longer chasing something outrageous. We are chasing a target that can be met with competent, repeatable outcomes rather than miracles. Weighting the final run-in correctly, home games like Everton and Leeds remain the true win fixtures, while Palace and Brentford away still profile as the likeliest draw opportunities, and perhaps even Newcastle too with their recent poor run. Newcastle’s recent form in the past 10 or 12 matches doesn’t match Leeds, Forest or West Ham. Statistical opportunities exist for wins in those three away games too. Deep Block’s value isn’t “perfect prediction”. It’s correctly identifying which matches are the ones that define our season, which are opportunities, and which are free hits.

1. Crystal Palace (A): Mon 20 April: Projection: Draw
Why: One of the away fixtures that still profiles as a realistic one point but with a potential to replicate what happened at Fulham. Palace have been on a run of winning every other game and drawing or losing the one in between. They won their last game, so a draw or defeat is likely if the pattern continues. They are stronger away from home, fifth in the away games league table, but just four home wins in sixteen games leaves them fifteenth in the home games table. Seven of their home games have ended in draws.

2. Everton (H): Sat 25 April: Projection: Win
Why: Previously identified as a decisive home match in the survival pathway. This will not be easy given Everton’s form with 10 points from their last six games. However, with just three home games to go, and one of those against the league leaders this game somehow has added significance for us, although Everton are one of several teams jostling for European qualification. They are strong away from home (fourth in the away games table) so we’ll have to be at our best as this is a game where we could slip up if we are not.

3. Brentford (A): Sat 2 May: Projection: Draw
Why: Still one of the likeliest away draw opportunities in the model’s framing. Despite their lofty seventh place in the league they have drawn their last four games. A realistic one point is achievable with a potential to snatch three, similar to the game at Crystal Palace. But Brentford have only lost three of their sixteen home games so no guarantees of any points here although the draw in the recent cup game gives us hope of another one.

4. Arsenal (H): Sun 10 May: Projection: Defeat
Why: A higher-difficulty fixture where the model doesn’t need points. The key is not letting it derail the plan. Despite their apparent faltering form they have still collected 13 points from their last six games. But if we have faltered ourselves in the previous 3 games then we might need something from this which will be tough.

5. Newcastle United (A): Sun 17 May: Projection: Draw
Why: Our final away game and despite their current form with four defeats in their last six games, it could still be another tough one. A point is possible and an unlikely win would ease the tension, especially if the previous results have not gone to plan.

6. Leeds United (H): Sun 24 May: Projection: Win
Why: Alongside Everton at home, Leeds was already identified as one of the defining fixtures. Who knows whether they will be safe at this point and ‘on the beach’ or still fighting for survival? It’s too far ahead but the belief is that home advantage will drive us over the line. Leeds are eighteenth in the away table so relegation form on their travels but this week’s win at Old Trafford has eased the pressure on them and the win in the cup here recently shows an upturn in away form.

Below is a projection consistent with the model’s earlier weighting that there are decisive home fixtures, that away draws provide the most plausible value and the best chance of exceeding expectation, and acceptance that a couple of games are likely free hits:

If all goes to plan the projected finish is 41 points. Two wins, three draws and one defeat: nine points from the final six games. The last six games have yielded eight points. Matching these lands us directly in the previously stated “likely safety” band, and it does it without demanding anything exotic. But it could all go wrong still. The predicted wins might not happen, and the draws could be defeats. But one away win in the last three away games could compensate for that. But a predicted win that becomes a defeat reduces the projection to 38. Will that be enough?

When we lost at home to Forest (perhaps controversially?) it didn’t look as though there was any way back and relegation seemed inevitable. The massive improvement since then has seen us climb out of the bottom three, keeping pace with Forest, and thanks to Tottenham’s decline moving two points ahead of our North London neighbours. But there are no easy games. We need our recent form to continue.

So let’s recap. The original model which ran with 12 games to go predicted a finishing position of 18^th place and likely relegation. The likely safety line at that point was predicted to be 38-42 points and that still stands. Of course, it is not just our own results that will decide our fate but also those achieved by Leeds, Forest and Tottenham.

How far do you like to go back to consider current form? Deep Block has some alternatives for you. Points gained in:

Last 4 games: West Ham 7, Leeds 6, Forest 6, Tottenham 1

Last 6 games: West Ham 8, Leeds 6, Forest 6, Tottenham 1

Last 8 games: West Ham 12, Leeds 10, Forest 7, Tottenham 1

Last 10 games: West Ham 15, Leeds 11, Forest 11, Tottenham 3

Last 12 games: West Ham 18, Leeds 14, Forest 15, Tottenham 3

However far you go back it looks good. BUT! We are not safe or comfortable. Will Tottenham will end their disastrous run of form? We hope not, but can they really continue to be so bad? Will there be a new manager bounce? Have Leeds turned the corner with their win at Manchester United? Are they already safe with a six point cushion? And what about Forest? Their fixtures aren’t straightforward but surely they will pull a further three points clear this weekend at home to Burnley?

The computer projections are based on current form, historical data, fixture difficulty and multiple other factors. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are perhaps even more unpredictable. Like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates analogy, you never know what you are going to get. Football forecasting is not a perfect science. And this is nothing too serious. It‘s a bit of fun really. Anything can still happen. COYI!

West Ham Bulletin: Friday I’m In Love But I Still Don’t Like Mondays

A near perfect weekend of football sees West Ham escape the bottom three at the expense of Tottenham. The tussle to avoid the last relegation place is now looking like a three-horse race. Can West Ham carry recent good form into the remaining games?

The dream of a near perfect weekend of Premier League relegation football was rudely disrupted by Leeds victory at Old Trafford last night. The result provides the Yorkshire club with sufficient headroom to suggest the struggle to avoid 18^th place is now a three-horse race between Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Tottenham.

The practice of stringing out the weekend’s fixtures over four days is a feature of modern football that I’ve never come to terms with. I can accept the rationale for multiple weekend kick-off times, but Friday and Monday games for your team leaves the weekend with an empty feeling. As the number of clubs participating in Europe competition has increased, these have become the Cinderella slots whose only purpose is to fulfil broadcast quotas for the less glamorous participants.

In the past, it was only clubs such as Southend and Colchester who would dream of playing on Friday nights. Hoping to attract casual fans who would rather spend Saturday afternoons watching one of the bigger clubs in the capital. And while Monday once held a certain prestige in the earlier days of limited live televised games, that too has become more of a contractual obligation.

As a vaguely interesting aside, if your memories go back as far as the 1960s you might remember that West Ham would regularly schedule their early season midweek games on a Monday night (kick off 7:30). This would occasionally allow a day or two at the very top of the table courtesy of having played an extra game.

Anyway, even the negatives of the Friday night anomaly can be forgiven and forgotten when your team run out as 4-0 victors. It was not an expected outcome from the evidence of the opening exchanges where the visitors started much sharper and stronger – without necessarily creating too many clear-cut chances. The complexion of the game changed, though, with a perfectly timed Hammers opener on the cusp of half-time. It followed the game’s first corner which although initially cleared was played back in for Dinos Mavropanos to powerfully head home. The neck of the gods had done it again.

The second half performance evoked flashbacks to the swagger of the brief Moyes/ Lingard purple patch of 2021. A team playing on its toes, attacking with pace and imposing themselves on the game. It may have been a long time coming, but Nuno has finally hit upon a way of playing that magnifies the player’s strengths and conceals their shortcomings.

From the tireless running of Taty and Pablo, the liveliness of Bowen and Summerville and the strength and solidity of Disasi and Mavropanos. Where Soucek has been deployed in a simpler role where his slow tempo is not exposed; with Fernandes the reliable anchor and conductor; and Mads encouraged to use his superior distribution skills but without taking unnecessary risks. There are still weaknesses though. The formation allows the midfield to be overrun by greater numbers on occasion, the front players cannot keep up the pressing for a full 90 minutes, and we are one significant injury away from all the improvements falling to pieces. Survival will require both committed performances and a generous slice of good fortune.

Perhaps the most important factor is to ensure Max Kilman never gets anywhere near the pitch. No surprise that he didn’t make the bench on Friday. What to do with him though? Maybe ending up being passed around on loan like a recycled raffle prize for the remainder of his seven-year contract?

The rare convincing victory certainly gave a boost to the West Ham media team who, if my social media algorithm is anything to go by, have been posting daily celebratory posts as if we’d won the Champions League. A consequence of having so little to cheer for so long. Even the ‘Behind The Scenes’ crew managed to see action this weekend.

A further upshot of the weekend results is a first sighting of the old cliché that survival is in our own hands. This a consequence of Tottenham’s defeat at Sunderland leaving them two points adrift of the Hammers and without a league win in 2026. Yet when you are mired in a relegation battle having averaged only a point per game across the season, the idea of ‘being in your own hands’ is somewhat illusory. However, the simple fact is that winning more points in the remaining games than Spurs will keep us up and potentially doom them to the Championship – which would be a shame😉

Forecasting games is notoriously difficult at the tail end of the season. I watched the first hour of Crystal Palace versus Newcastle on Sunday and what a tepid end of season affair that was. Neither would provide an insurmountable obstacle if they offered the same lethargic approach against us. With Glasner leaving Palace and Howe surely on his last life on Tyneside how much will they be up for the games?

On the other hand, both Everton and Brentford are in with a shout of European qualification and unfortunately have more to play for than just mid-table pride. Then there’s Arsenal. Looking odds on for the title a few weeks back they are having a serious wobble. What situation will they be in by the time they face West Ham on May 10, a few days after a probable Champions League semi-final second leg clash?

Ideally, it would be great to go into the final day with nothing at stake. Last day survival bids are not good for either health or sanity. At least, it is highly likely that Leeds will have reached safety well before then.

What might happen over the coming week is pure speculation and with so many variables that it can only lead to madness. As my Scottish grandfather might have said: “If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there’d be no work for tinkers’ hands.” COYI!

Indiana Santo and The Villa of Doom: Roof Collapses on West Ham Escape Plan

Defeat might have been expected in Sunday’s Villa Park encounter but it was the disappointing nature of the performance which raises serious questions about the Hammer’s survival credentials.

A pivotal moment in the genre of action-adventure movies – the Indiana Jones franchise popular in the 1980s and 90s, for example – is when the protagonists must navigate a series of perilous traps, rotating blades, and concealed pressure plates to avoid an ancient booby trap that would seal an inevitable fate.

The West Ham escape plan seems very much like that. Either by accident or design, Nuno had hit upon a balance of personnel, formation and style of play which, with a good following wind, might just get them out of trouble. The problem is that there is zero margin for error. Take away a single component, attempt anything in the wrong order then an ancient curse is activated and the ground beneath our feet crumbles to dust.

The bad news had already been received a few days previously. Crysencio Summerville, the talisman of West Ham’s current revival, had yet to recover from the injury picked up in the FA Cup tie against Brentford. Will we come to regret this half-time substitution? But there was even worse news to come.

When the teams were announced it was no surprise that Nuno had opted to start with the eleven who had wrestled a precious point from Manchester City a week earlier. The subliminal message was clear. Another point here would do very nicely. Let’s face it, away at Villa Park wasn’t high on anyone’s the list of winnable games. The only grain of optimism being the hosts poor recent run of form in the absence of several influential midfielder players.

Whatever the game plan was going to be, it was thrown into disarray when Jean-Clair Todibo was injured in the warmup. Assuming they had trained all week with a three centre-back formation in mind, the obvious solution would have been a like-for-like swap. But nothing says a lack of trust in your £40 million, £100 per week backup better than deciding to disrupt the entire plan instead. If he can’t be called upon for this type of emergency, why is he on the bench in the first place?

What actually happened was a repeat of one of those genius Nuno moments from earlier in the season. A plan which, in his mind, was imagined as a complex game of four-dimensional snakes and ladders. Aaron Wan-Bissaka man-marking Morgan Rogers, Jarrod Bowen filling in as emergency right back, and Pablo Felipe deployed in wide left midfield. With Pablo and Tomas Soucek about as mobile in midfield as a pair of clowns on stilts, the game was lost before it had begun. No structure, no cohesion and no goal threat. The trap had been triggered. Darts flew, tunnels collapsed, and a giant rolling boulder thundered towards the West Ham goal as Villa awoke from their slumbers awoke to rediscover Champions League bound form.

To think that a few years ago the two clubs occupied a similar position as hopeful pretenders to the rich six throne. Oh, what a sprinkling of boardroom competence and ambition can bring you in the right hands. In contrast, all we have learned (to our cost) from West Ham’s board is that incompetence not only makes them bad at running the club but also prevents them from recognising how bad they are.

West Ham’s resistance lasted barely 15 minutes. Villa had been looking to target Mads Hermansen’s obvious weakness and uncertainty in the air at set pieces. But it was an alternative and well worked passing routine from a corner that drew first blood. The ball ending up with McGinn on the edge of area whose curled shot evaded the desperate dive of the Hammer’s keeper – who should have done better in my opinion.

The closest West Ham came to a leveller was in the immediate aftermath. Taty failing/ not trying hard enough to get firm contact onto a Bowen cross. After that it was one-way traffic with only the heroics of Konstantinos Mavropanos keeping the score respectable. Quite how referee Paul Tierney saw the excellent tackle on Watkins as a penalty is indicative of the ever-declining refereeing standards. For once, VAR did its job – clearly and obviously.

Watkins would get the last laugh, however, scrambling home in the 68^th minute to finally kill the game off. It was a textbook catalogue of West Ham errors. Bowen giving the ball away cheaply in the final third. Tomas Soucek so slow in tracking Roger’s run that even VAR had announced check complete before he caught up. And finally, Hermansen spilling Rogers’ tame shot into the delighted Watkins’ path. Game over!

There was just enough time remaining for a masterclass from substitute Adama Traore, showcasing his full repertoire of comical misdirected and overhit crosses.

In truth, it was a game that few expected to win. But nevertheless, it was a worryingly disappointing and passive performance from Nuno’s men. Yet, in the bigger picture; in the realm of take one game at a time management, nothing has been decided. The games that we might hope to win are still to come – home to Wolves, Everton and Leeds, away at Brentford and Palace. There are points still to win.

If something good can come out from the dreaded international break, it is the opportunity to get Summerville fit for the run-in. The future may depend on his recovery rate improving considerably on his previous seven-month absence.

Elsewhere, Nottingham Forest were the big winners from the weekend. Picking up three points from an unexpectedly comfortable romp at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium. It turns out that reports of the north Londoner’s corner turning had been wildly exaggerated. They will no doubt now be looking for yet another replacement caretaker manager. What’s Ryan Mason doing now? Leeds will regard it as two points dropped against Brentford on Friday night.

Time to regroup then Hammers. The most recent battle was lost but the war is not yet over. As one well known presidential politician put it in a late night post:

“West Ham United, very underrated team, by the way. People don’t talk about them enough, but I do. I know football, maybe better than anyone, and I’m hearing VERY STRONG things about their survival chances. Very strong.

The so-called “experts” are saying relegation. WRONG! Total losers. They said the same thing about my many great successes and look how that turned out. West Ham has tremendous fans, really incredible people, and a beautiful stadium. London Stadium, fantastic place, I’ve heard.

They just need a little confidence, maybe a few better decisions from management (won’t name names!), and they will STAY UP. I guarantee it. People are coming up to me, big fans, tough guys, saying: “Sir, West Ham has plenty of bubbles left to blow.” And you know what? They’re right.“

MAKE THE IRONS GREAT AGAIN!

The Fall and Rise of Nuno’s West Ham: A Path to Safety Or Too Little Too Late

The last two months has seen an amazing turn around in spirit and fortunes at West Ham. Will that momentum be enough to keep their heads above the relegation line?

Do you remember the coin pusher machines that were a common feature in seaside amusement arcades? Where no matter how many pennies you fed in, the moving tray refused to push the huge pile of cash over the edge and into the collection trough. Well, this season’s relegation battle is starting to take on a similar appearance.

This time last year, it was all over bar the shouting. Ipswich and Leicester were 12 points from safety and Southampton a further eight points behind them. In the final table, 26 points would have been sufficient to survive. This season, the pieces are far more reluctant to fall.

The weekend’s results were as inconclusive as it was possible to get. Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and ourselves each picking up a single point. Forest will be the most disappointed having dropped valuable points at home to Fulham. A point apiece for West Ham and Tottenham, however, probably exceeded expectations. But then, predicting the outcome of games as the season draws to a close and attention is focused elsewhere always becomes increasingly troublesome.

For the briefest of overnight moment, the Hammers managed to climb out of the bottom three for the first time since 30 November. While there’s no doubt the situation remains on a knife edge, it is West Ham who are the side with moment. Another great escape feels possible but, as they say, “there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”

When West Ham lost at home to Nottingham Forest on 6 January, it was their tenth consecutive game without a win. The Guardian match report opened as follows:

“West Ham are drifting towards the most gutless of relegations. The London Stadium was half empty on another dismal night, encapsulating the apathy gripping this miserable club, and it is hard to see a way out for Nuno Espirito Santo’s accident prone side after a combination of misfortune and dismal defending left them seven points below Nottingham Forest in 17th place.”

As well as being seven points behind Forest, they were eight behind Leeds and 13 behind Tottenham. Those gaps are now zero, three and one point respectively. The last six games table illustrates West Ham’s current momentum advantage. It is a period where the three rivals have won just one game between them – ironically Leeds victory over Nottingham Forest.

After the Forest defeat, many of us had already resigned themselves to relegation even if we didn’t say it out loud. Now, making the drop from the current resurgent position would be doubly disappointing. So, what has changed? How did we progress from gutless performances and dismal defending to the fighting spirit and dogged resilience that was on show against Manchester City?

The answer lies in a combination of factors. The arrival of Paco Jemez, an adventurous foil to Nuno’s caution. The signings of Taty and Pablo allowing higher pressing and creating space for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville to operate in. The introduction of Alex Disasi, a formidable presence in the centre of defence that has brought the best out of Dinos Mavropanos and Jean-Clair Todibo. Indeed, a defence that was once Keystone Cops and is now operating with all the competence and precision of a Formula 1 pit crew is one of the biggest turnarounds in my personal football memory.

The clincher, though, has been the ability to take the field without Lucas Paqueta and Max Kilman in the side. For different reasons each was detrimental to the cohesion, unity and team spirit we now see on the pitch.

The bottom line is a system that suits the players. One that is aligned with capabilities, that the players can understand, and which has bred belief and confidence. The antithesis of Potter’s ‘here’s how I want to play regardless of whether you can do it’.

Looking back, it is unfortunate that it took so long to get here. The slow recovery under Nuno could still be our undoing if we cannot outrun our opponents as the season draws to a close. In that sense, the improvement mirrors the Great Escape season of 2006/7 where Alan Curbishley only managed six points from his opening 12 games in charge – including a first day victory.

I am already starting to experience pre-match tension at the thought of having to win on the final day to preserve our Premier League status. I’m really hoping it doesn’t come to that.

As Richard pointed out in his latest Supercomputer article, the Manchester City fixture was something of a free hit in the run-in. They are the one team we rarely get anything from even in the best of times. So, to come away with a point was exceptional despite the ‘needs must’ pragmatic approach to the game. A 100% goals to shots ratio is a rare occurrence indeed.

It was a tremendous effort from the Hammers and further endorsement of the spirit that now exists within the team. I find it intensely irritating when the click bait sites feel obliged to hand out a 3/10 rating to whoever they claim ‘stank the place out’ this weekend just to justify a headline. These are not fan sites!

As much as it was a team performance, Mavropanos and Todibo were both superb at the back with excellent support from Disasi, Diouf and Hermansen in goal. It is a solid foundation for the remaining eight games and the FA Cup adventure to come.

As far as Manchester City are concerned, they are well below the standards they have set for themselves in previous seasons. They are not yet out of the title race – with a game in hand and a home fixture with Arsenal to come – but the current side lacks the charisma it once had in the shape of Kompany, Toure, De Bruyne, (David) Silva and Aguero.

It’s possible that we are seeing the end of days for Pep Guardiola as City manager. I would love to see him prove his chops outside a big two club in any league. Just to see how good he really is without boundless funds to support him.

Next stop for West Ham is Villa Park next Sunday. The Villains have experienced a massive injury inspired slump over recent weeks and have a midweek Europa League tie in midweek to overcome. It might not be as formidable a test as it once appeared. If Summerville makes a return from injury, I could even be quietly confident. COYI!

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer has been rebooted to re-run West Ham’s survival equation

With nine games to go the supercomputer has updated the maths behind West Ham’s chances of staying up. Survival that once looked desperate is now doable. We are not safe or comfortable but it’s closer than it looked a few weeks ago.

Since the Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, last ran its projections (prior to the Bournemouth game) three of the twelve remaining fixtures have now been completed, replacing twelve hypothetical outcomes with more hard data to assess our survival chances.

Results from those games:

West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth (H) – Draw (predicted draw)
Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (A) – Loss (predicted loss)
Fulham 0-1 West Ham (A) – Win (predicted draw)

These results delivered 4 points from a possible 9, outperforming the original projection of two draws and a loss from these fixtures by two points. In particular, the away win at Fulham is a significant upgrade on the supercomputer’s expectations and materially improves the survival equation.

After 29 matches, West Ham now sit 18th in the Premier League with 28 points, level on points with Nottingham Forest in 17th but behind on goal difference. The teams in the relegation dogfight (the bottom six) currently read:

• 15th: Leeds – 31 points
• 16th: Tottenham – 29 points
• 17th: Nottingham Forest – 28 points
• 18th: West Ham United – 28 points
• 19th: Burnley – 19 points
• 20th: Wolves – 16 points

Crucially, the safety line is currently 29 points based on the season to date (exactly a point a game), meaning West Ham are now just one point behind that current safety level, with momentum firmly shifting in our favour.

With 9 games remaining, the survival target can now be recalibrated:

• Likely safety threshold at current performance levels: 38 points
• Points currently held: 28
• Points required: 10 from the final 9 matches

That equates to 1.11 points per match, which is lower than the rate required in the original model and less than West Ham’s recent form (1.33 per match in last six games).

Of course, results elsewhere can change the safety threshold and 38 might not be enough. But based on current figures Deep Block believes that a spread of 38-40 will be the level needed.

The upcoming schedule still presents major challenges, but the pressure has eased slightly thanks to the win at Fulham:

Manchester City (H) – Free hit
Aston Villa (A) – Low probability, but a point possible
Wolves (H) – Must‑win
Crystal Palace (A) – Likely draw but winnable
Everton (H) – Crucial and winnable
Brentford (A) – Likely draw
Arsenal (H) – Low probability
Newcastle (A) – Low probability
Leeds (H) – Potential season‑definer, perhaps must win?

The original identification of Wolves, Everton and Leeds at home as decisive fixtures to win remains valid. The difference now is that the margin for error has widened slightly.

What has changed since the original projection? The Fulham win is pivotal; it reduces the required points tally and shifts psychological pressure onto our rivals. Forest and Tottenham have failed to pull away allowing West ham to close the gap. Burnley and Wolves are effectively gone, leaving only one realistic relegation place still in play.

Deep Block originally projected a 37‑point finish and 18th place. Based on real results to date, that projection now reads closer to 39 points. Our survival chances have improved materially over the past three games. While relegation remains a genuine risk, the path to safety is now clearer and more achievable than when the original model was run.

If West Ham can beat Wolves, Everton and Leeds, and add two draws elsewhere (the games at Palace and Brentford are the most likely) as per the original forecasts then Deep Block predicts that Premier League survival is more likely than not. But the margins remain tight and depend upon results elsewhere. Failure to achieve the predicted eleven points from these games will likely need points gained elsewhere in the more challenging fixtures.

Assuming that Burnley and Wolves are as good as down (albeit not yet mathematically) the current form (last six games) of the four teams likely facing the final relegation place is as follows:

West Ham: 8 points
Leeds: 5 points
Forest: 3 points
Tottenham: 1 point

If that form continues into the final nine fixtures then we would be home and dry. But the games towards the end of the season tend to be unpredictable. Three games ago Deep Block predicted that we would probably just fall short. It now predicts that we might just be safe. It may yet come down to the final day. And if it does, well this is West Ham. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

West Ham – The Fight For Survival – Eleven Games. No More Margin for Error

With 11 games left and 25 points on the board, West Ham United’s season has reached the point where every kick, every decision, every missed chance feels heavier than the last. The maths is simple. The reality is anything but.

Most signs point to 38 points being the absolute minimum number this season. That means we need at least 13 more points between now and May. Not impossible. But there’s no room left for wasted opportunities.

Last weekend’s 0–0 draw with Bournemouth felt like one of those moments we may look back on. It wasn’t a bad result. It wasn’t a disaster. But it felt like two points dropped. When rivals are slipping and the door is ajar, you have to force your way through.

Because doors don’t stay open for long in relegation battles.

A Fixture List That Pulls No Punches

There’s no hiding from it: the run‑in is brutal.

Trips to Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle. Home games against Manchester City and Arsenal. On paper, those are fixtures you circle and hope for a miracle. Anything from them is a bonus.

So where is this season really going to be decided?

At the London Stadium.
Against teams we have to beat.

Wolves (H)
Everton (H)
Leeds (H)

Those matches aren’t just important. They’re season‑defining. Lose any of them and the pressure multiplies instantly.

Away from home, trips to Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brentford carry just as much weight. Get something from those games and suddenly the table looks kinder. Come away empty-handed and the fear creeps in.

A realistic return across the run‑in might look like:

3 wins
3 draws
5 defeats

That gets us to 37 points.

And that’s the terrifying part.

Thirty‑seven might not be enough. Thirty-eight might not be enough either. We might need forty, or perhaps forty-two? From the realistic return above can we turn two of the draws into wins? That gets us to forty-one. I’ve a feeling that would do it.

Which means an extra goal in two games. A late winner perhaps? Holding onto a lead instead of dropping more points from a winning position. A moment or two of courage or quality could be the difference between survival and heartbreak.

Why Hope Still Lives

For all the nerves, this team has given us reason to believe.

Eleven points from the last six games tells its own story. Performances have improved. There’s fight again. There’s structure. There’s belief. This side looks far more like a team that expects to compete than one simply hoping to survive.

Keep that level up, and averaging just over a point a game from here isn’t unrealistic. It still might not be enough. Do we need 37, 38, 40, 42? Who knows? It’s not in our hands now.

But the warning is clear: the games we have to win must be won. There’s no safety net left. Lose those, and we’re relying on favours that rarely arrive.

The Bigger Picture

At the bottom, things are tightening.

Wolves and Burnley are almost gone. One relegation place remains, and it’s a scrap between several nervous clubs. Forest, Tottenham and Leeds all have reasons to worry. None are safe. Neither are we.

West Ham aren’t doomed. But we’re not comfortable either.

We’re on the tightrope now – every step deliberate, every wobble dangerous.

What This Comes Down To

Forget the spreadsheets. Forget the projections.

This is about:

Winning the games that matter
Turning home advantage into points
Finding something – anything – in the toughest moments

It’s about players standing up when it hurts.
About the crowd dragging the team forward when legs feel heavy.
About refusing to let the season slip quietly away.

Eleven games.
Eleven chances to fight.
Eleven chances to prove this club belongs here.

Do enough – and we survive.
Fall short – and we’ll spend the summer replaying the moments where it slipped through our fingers.

The season isn’t over yet.
But from here on, every game is a final.