Tonight’s game against Arsenal at the Emirates stadium represents the halfway point of the 2023/24 Premier League season. At the end of the game, West Ham will have faced each opponent once, played ten of their 19 games away from home, and accumulated somewhere between 30 and 33 points.
It was quite a surprise after the pre-Christmas round of matches to find the Hammers occupying sixth place in the Premier League standings. The general vibe at the club has been nowhere near as positive as that league position suggests it should be – concerns about style of play and uncertainty over the manager’s future dominating the online discourse.
The results versus performance paradox was encompassed perfectly in last Saturday’s encounter with Manchester United. There is clearly no such thing as a bad victory over the Red Devils, but what a drab and dreary contest it was for well over an hour – and admittedly both sides were responsible for the criminally low standard of entertainment on show. The beautiful simplicity of the two West Ham goals totally incompatible with everything that had gone before them. It has been a long, long time since supporters have been able to enjoy the combined attacking prowess that Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, and Lucas Paqueta offer – but there is a sense that the potential is only being partially realised, or unleashed as the headline writers like to say.
In the event that West Ham won tonight, they would achieve a best ever points tally at the halfway stage of a 38-game season, eclipsing the 32 points recorded from 19 games in 2020/21. A draw would give the Hammers an identical record to that achieved in 2021/22. And whatever the outcome, the three best opening half seasons (in terms of points won) will all have been under Moyes management – better than the 29 points earned by Harry Redknapp in 1998/99 and Slaven Bilic in 2015/16.
Winning away at Arsenal is, as we well know, a very rare occurrence for West Ham. In 21 attempts this century, it has only happened three times – the last encounter at Highbury in February 2006, the first at the Emirates in April 2007, and most recently in the opening game of the 2015/16 season. Aside from those three victories there has been one draw and 17 defeats. Each of the last seven games have resulted in a win for the Gunners with an aggregate score of 19-4..
No matter how bad the Hammer’s record is, Moyes managerial record at Arsenal is even less impressive. A total of 15 defeats and no wins from 19 visits, which represents a major element of his 70+ match winless streak from trips to Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal. I wonder if he has considered taking a different tactical approach yet.
The equivalent fixture last season was a Boxing Day game that Arsenal won comfortably by three goals to one despite falling behind to a first-half Said Benrahma penalty. A win that left the Gunners seven points clear at the top of the table – a lead that they would ultimately squander. A similar result today would again put them top of the pile and they are certainly one of three genuine title contenders along with favourites Manchester City and Liverpool. With that young Declan fella in midfield, they have a more solid, if less spontaneous, look about them – but they may not be clinical enough in front of goal to hold off the perennial late challenge from the champions. Perhaps signing Ivan Toney in January would make for a more even contest.
Apart from the continued absence of Michail Antonio, Moyes should have a fully fit squad to select from. The only probable change from the team that started against Manchester United is the return of Nayef Aguerd in place of former Gunner, Konstantinos Mavropanos. Dinos experienced a shaky opening half-hour to Saturday’s game but settled down to put in a decent second half showing. He will be needed to cover for Aguerd during the imminent AFCON absences.
AFCON is coming at a most unfortunate time for the blossoming Bowen/ Paqueta/ Kudus partnership. In the Ghanaian’s absence, the idea of Bowen moving back out wide and Antonio or Danny Ings in the middle is hardly a mouth-watering prospect. The interplay and interchange between the front three in recent weeks has hinted of a brighter future, but whether all three will still be around after the summer is a worry. It was interesting to see John Heitinga bending Moyes ear in the technical area last Saturday as I imagine he is behind some of the more enterprising glimpses of attacking movement.
There is no question that Moyes will deploy his trademark low block for tonight’s game. He will not want his team to concede five goals in three consecutive matches and will be more inclined to protect the point than going for broke. As Jon Bon Jovi might phrase the pre-match team talk: “We’ve gotta hold on to what we’ve got, It doesn’t make a difference if we make it or not.”
As ever, if West Ham are to have attacking success, it will depend on how quickly players can/ are allowed to get forward in support Bowen. I saw in the week that Paqueta and Kudus are two of the three highest ranked attacking midfielders for tackles and interceptions in the league. While this is highly commendable and illustrative of how hard they work, defensive duties should not come at the expense of attacking intentions. The most productive way for the the Hammers to threaten the Arsenal defence is to target Zinchenko, its weakest link – and to keep Rice occupied in helping him out. Other than that, there is only Odegaard, Saka, and Martinelli to worry about.
It really is about time we got to see a James Ward-Prowse free-kick goal to equal the Beckham record. I’m not sure there has even been a near miss yet, so tonight would be perfect timing. In fact, the overall goals from set pieces record is very mid-table this season and well behind the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal. And despite what the commentators continue to say, Moyes team are no longer a big (tall) side compared to others. Of course, West Ham are massive, just not in height.
With Arsenal the masters of the last gasp winner, it will be vital to main concentration right into the thirteenth minute of added time. Can we complete a north London away day double? The chances are slim but you never know. COYI!