Under The Hammers

A Poll of Player Ratings from the Southampton Game

Rating the Ratings. How different people viewed individual West Ham performances at the weekend.

Football Stats When I was young (I’m talking about between the ages of around 8 to 11, so over 50 years ago) I used to badger my dad to buy the People newspaper every Sunday. Apart from liking their match reports, they were the only paper (to my limited knowledge at the time) who gave the players ratings out of 10 for the game played the day before. You have to remember that all games were 3pm kick offs on a Saturday at that time, so apart from midweek games, I was able to collate the figures for most of the West Ham games throughout the season. I used to painstakingly write out on a schedule the subjective scores of the reporter at the game, and then as the season progressed I would calculate the averages. In this way I believed I was working out which players were the best. I didn’t keep my schedules, although I can recall that Bobby Moore and Johnny Byrne always figured highly at the time.

Now I haven’t really taken too much notice of player ratings since that time all those years ago, but it did occur to me that more and more publications, both newspapers and websites, seem to be giving players scores for their performances. Some of this is done for the purposes of fantasy leagues, dream leagues etc, and some for the purposes of the supposedly ever increasing demand for football statistics. Understanding the subjectivity involved, I decided to analyse some ratings that I researched when looking at the performances of individual West Ham players in our win on Saturday at Southampton. I looked at eight sets of scores, including those by my fellow web co-blogger Geoff, to see how much correlation there was in the figures. I was surprised by the consistency of what I found. I was expecting greater variation knowing how people tend to see games differently.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	A	B	C
Randolph	6	7	7	7.5	6	6	7	7	53.5	40.0	6.67
Kouyate	6	7	7	6.5	5	2	5	7	45.5	36.5	6.08
Reid	7	6	7	6.5	6	5	6	7	50.5	38.5	6.42
Fonte	7	6	7	5	6	5	6	7	49.0	37.0	6.17
Cresswell	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	52.0	39.0	6.50
Antonio	6	7	6	6.5	5	6	6	7	49.5	37.5	6.25
Noble	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	57.0	42.0	7.00
Obiang	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	9	68.0	51.0	8.50
Feghouli	6	6	5	6	6	6	6	6	47.0	36.0	6.00
Snodgrass	7	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	54.0	41.0	6.83
Carroll	8	7	8	7	7	7	7	8	59.0	44.0	7.33
	75	74	75	73	70	66	72	80	585	442.5	6.70

1 – Geoff Hopkins, Under The Hammers
2 – The Sun
3 – ReadWestHam
4 – The Mail on Sunday
5 – ESPN
6 – Football Insider
7 – Sky
8 – Outside 90

The eight sets of scores are listed above. I have only used the scores awarded to the eleven starting players. Of course, when I used to look at the data fifty years ago, there were only eleven players in each game as no substitutes were allowed at the time.

Column A is the total of the eight scores. Using standard statistical analysis to remove some element of bias / unusual scoring, Column B is Column A minus the highest and lowest score awarded to each individual player. For example, the Football Insider score for Kouyate is way out of line compared to the rest of the scores, so this “unusual” score is eliminated from the calculations. Column C is the average score for each player based upon the six “middle” scores, i.e Column B divided by 6.

The resulting table below is the final score for each player in descending order:

1	Obiang	8.50
2	Carroll	7.33
3	Noble	7.00
4	Snodgrass	6.83
5	Randolph	6.67
6	Cresswell	6.50
7	Reid	6.42
8	Antonio	6.25
9	Fonte	6.17
10	Kouyate	6.08
11	Feghouli	6.00

Unsurprisingly, Obiang was considered our player of the match as he was the top scorer in each of the eight sets of scores. His average was well ahead of Carroll who was second, and Noble in third. Feghouli finished at the bottom, although he still scored an average of 6.00. The average for the team using this calculation was 6.70.

It was just a bit of fun, but does give the thoughts of eight individuals subjectively analysing player performances in the game. Pedro Obiang is my player of the season to date, and his performance in this game reinforces my belief. I think, but I am not 100% certain, that he is the only West Ham player to score a goal and create an assist in the same game in the whole of this season. I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong!

Southampton 1, West Ham 3

A good performance to reverse the result at the London Stadium in September

noble

As always, co-weblogger Geoff summarised the game excellently in his article on the game published in Under The Hammers on Sunday: 5 Observations from Victory at St Marys. We were seeking revenge for our early season defeat at the hands of Southampton, and achieved it well.

Throughout this blog we have commented on the plethora of statistics surrounding football and I’ll add some more today.

In the Hull v Liverpool game, Liverpool “won” the possession statistics 72% to 28%, the shots 11 to 7, completed passes 523 to 162, and the pass success 82% to 62%. You all know the score of the game. Hull 2, Liverpool 0.

In the Palace v Sunderland game, Palace “won” the possession statistics 65% to 35%, the shots 17 to 10, completed passes 399 to 195, and the pass success 81% to 71%. You all know the score of the game. Palace 0, Sunderland 4.

In the Everton v Bournemouth game, Bournemouth “won” the possession statistics 54% to 46%, the shots 16 to 12, completed passes 476 to 391, and the pass success 86% to 82%. The final score was Everton 6, Bournemouth 3.

In the West Brom v Stoke game, Stoke “won” the possession statistics 62% to 38%, completed passes 416 to 220, and the pass success 81% to 70%. The final score was West Brom 1, Stoke 0.

In the Chelsea v Arsenal game, Arsenal “won” the possession statistics 59% to 41%, completed passes 475 to 326, and the pass success 84% to 80%. And the game ended Chelsea 3, Arsenal 1.

And finally in our game, Southampton v West Ham, Southampton “won” the possession statistics 55% to 45%, the shots 18 to 5, completed passes 388 to 296, and the pass success 82% to 76%. You all know the score of the game of course. Southampton 1, West Ham 3.

I think that I have proved my point! The TV and written media love to show us these statistics when a game is in progress (sometimes they give you the last ten minutes), and at the end of the match. So what do they prove? Of course it doesn’t always happen this way. Sometimes the team with the most possession and pass success rate will win the game.

I’ll leave you to judge the relationship between the data and the outcome of games. I’ve picked out six of the eight games played on Saturday in this last weekend. I suppose losing managers can hide behind the data to try to prove that they were unlucky. But the only meaningful statistic is goals scored. In each of the games I’ve highlighted the team that “won” in terms of the data lost the game. The teams that “lost” in terms of the data were the ones who picked up the three points.

Despite the four goals scored in the game we were still as low as sixth on Match of the Day! The win was well deserved in spite of the statistics I’ve quoted above. Gabbiadini, a player we have been linked with in the media in the past, took his goal well, although he looked offside to me. I haven’t seen a replay but I’ll be amazed if he was onside.

The timing of our goals couldn’t have been much better. The equaliser from Carroll proved that his right foot isn’t just for standing on, and he coolly slotted the ball home just a minute or two after we had gone behind. Obiang has been threatening to score for a long while now, and his goal on the stroke of half-time was well struck from outside the area. And finally Mark Noble’s free kick, as the Saints were threatening to get back into the game early in the second half, was rightly credited to him, despite taking a deflection of a Southampton boot. The “rules” of goals accreditation work on the basis that if the ball was bound for the goal, then even if it is deflected off a defender, the goal is given to the player who shot. It would have only been given as an own goal if Noble’s shot was deemed to not be heading into the goal.

Three more points and ninth in the table. We have a very important game at home to West Brom next, where a win would help enormously if we want to close the gap on them.

This Week in Hammer’History

League Cup semi-finals and that memorable 9 goal Bradford thriller feature in the week 6 to 12 February in Hammer’s history.

This Week Hammers History During the famous 1985/86 season West Ham only played one league matches between the middle of January and mid-March due to inclement weather and frozen pitches leading to severe fixture congestion during the final weeks of the season. Strangely, FA cup games were not affected and this week saw the culmination of a long running 4^th round battle with Ipswich as the Hammers triumphed in a second replay at Portman Road by a solitary Tony Cottee goal.

If you can cast your mind back to 1989 you will remember it as a disappointing season that ended in relegation and the dismissal of John Lyall after 34 years with club. The season was briefly brightened by an enjoyable League Cup campaign which included stirring home victories against Liverpool and Aston Villa. The semi-final opponents this week for the first leg at Upton Park were fellow first division strugglers Luton Town. The game was to prove just as disappointing as the rest of the season as Luton took a 3-0 lead into the second leg with goals from Mick Harford, Ray Wegerle and Danny Wilson (a penalty conceded by a young Julian Dicks). Luton went on to win the tie 5-0 on aggregate before losing in the final to Nottingham Forest.

There was also League cup semi-final exit in 1967 when once again West Bromwich Albion proved to be our nemesis. Having lost to Albion in the final the previous year a 2-2 draw in the second leg at Upton Park was academic as the Baggies booked their place at Wembley with a 6-2 aggregate win.

It was a much happier Upton Park in 1981, however, when second division West Ham faced first division Coventry City in a second leg semi-final encounter with the task of turning round a 3-2 first leg deficit. In what was one of those special nights under the Boleyn floodlights West Ham played some exceptional football (John Lyall described it as ‘some of the best football I’ve ever seen from a West Ham team’). Second half goals by Paul Goddard and an 87th minute strike from Jimmy Neighbour rounded off a great night on what was Billy Bonds 600th appearance for West Ham; setting up a final against Liverpool.

Parkes, Stewart, Lampard, Bonds, Martin, Devonshire, Neighbour, Goddard, Cross, Brooking, Pike

There may have been a 9 goal thriller at Goodison Park on Saturday but in 2000 West Ham featured in an unforgettable clash with Bradford City that not only had 9 goals but all-sorts of added drama. With the score goalless West Ham keeper suffered a broken leg after just 5 minutes played to be replaced by 18 year old Stephen Bywater making his first team debut. Bradford opened the scoring after 30 minutes through Dean Windass but the Hammers were soon level when Trevor Sinclair swept home and then led when John Moncur fired in from long range. However, it was back to all square at the interval as Peter Beagrie converted from the penalty spot following a push in the box by Moncur. After the break Bradford took the advantage with two goals from a red-haired Jamie Lawrence, the first a fumble by Bywater, gave the Bantams a 2-0 lead. As West Ham pushed forward Paolo Di Canio was denied several penalty appeals prompting him to demand that manager Harry Redknapp take him off. Redknapp managed to calm the Italian down and moments later West Ham were finally awarded a penalty, for a foul on Paul Kitson. This led to a penalty area tug-of-war between Di Canio and Frank Lampard Jnr as to who should take the resulting kick; in the end Di Canio prevailed and, fortunately for him, scored from the spot to make it 3-4. A goal from Joe Cole brought the scores level again after 65 minutes before Lampard struck from the edge of the area with seven minutes remaining to complete the scoring at 5-4 to West Ham. Possibly one of the most bizarre matches ever to take place at the Boleyn.

Hislop (Bywater), Charles (Kitson), Minto, Lomas, Stimac, Ferdinand, Sinclair, Cole, Di Canio, Lampard, Moncur

5 Observations from victory @ St. Marys

A first ever win at the St Mary’s Stadium has the Hammers nudging up to ninth place in the Premier League table.

Hitting The Heights

A very satisfying first ever win at the St Mary’s Stadium which elevates West Ham towards the upper end of their probable finishing position for the season, somewhere between 8^th and 14^th. Next week’s match at home to West Bromwich Albion potentially giving a clearer indication as to whether the Hammers have already peaked or not. Some commentators are suggesting that away form is now better than at home, but this is not the case, at least in absolute terms, where we have collected 14 points away compared to 17 at home. In relative terms, however, we are performing better away (as we did last year); league tables based solely on either home or away games would have us 15^th and 6^th respectively compared to 7^th and 4^th respectively over the course of 2015/16. Comparing the overall record at this stage of the season (after 24 games) we have won just one less game but have lost 6 more giving a total of 7 less points. If you constructed league tables, for the whole of last season, based only on games against top half sides you would find West Ham in top spot; this season we are next to bottom just above Crystal Palace. The equivalent table for matches against bottom half sides would have us 11^th in 2015/16 and 6^th in 2016/17 to date. Proving perhaps that lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice.

When a Plan Comes Together

Even though the daffodils are not yet out the match had the feel of an end of season game for me, although this was largely down to Southampton’s subdued approach. Maybe with key players missing and an EFL cup final on the horizon their minds were elsewhere. Having now lost 6 of their last 7 league games and with signs of life among the bottom dwellers Southampton might be advised to take a quick look over their shoulder. In the after-match interviews, Slaven Bilic claimed that West Ham a game plan and that the players had stuck to it. I’m sure that plan didn’t include going a goal down early on but the team reacted well where you might have expected heads to have dropped in the aftermath of the midweek experience. As they say in football, ‘you can only beat what is in front of you’ and West Ham were worthy of this competent win despite not dazzling. Although Southampton were credited with 21 goal attempts very few of these created real threat to the West Ham goal. I still think that Gabbiadini was offside for his goal but that when he we was pulled up later in a similar position he was not; the swings and roundabouts of refereeing decisions.

Cotton Wool Striker

It was another well taken goal by Andy Carroll to make it a total of 6 for the season from 12 appearances, including 3 substitute appearances. All being well, Carroll is on target for his best ever haul of Premier League goals in a single season which currently sits at 11 with Newcastle and 9 with West Ham. This week’s goal was a controlled right foot finish following a ‘slide-rule’ pass from Pedro Obiang (I wonder how many supporters know what a slide rule is let alone have ever used one?) It was interesting that he was once again withdrawn as a precaution once Bilic felt that the game was won. In the scheme of things I think that not making rash purchases in the transfer window was a sensible course of action but how a team in the world’s ‘elite’ football league got themselves into a position of being so short in a number of key positions remains staggering. With no natural ‘trusted’ replacement to lead the line West Ham effectively surrendered the initiative in the final half hour and invited Southampton to come at them. Although you could argue that the result vindicated the decision this is an outcome bias and we could easily have been in trouble had the Saints pulled one back (e.g. Gabbiadini’s skyer). Keeping hold of the ball is always the best defensive tactic in my opinion and our ball retention dropped alarmingly after Carroll’s withdrawal.

Snodgrass Puts in a Shift

I didn’t really notice Robert Snodgrass much during the first half and his main contribution appeared to be at free kicks and corners. In fact if his stats are to be believed he didn’t do much at all and only Feghouli had fewer touches (41 versus 40) over 90 minutes. But we all know that the stats do not tell the whole story and, as well as earning the free-kick that led to Mark Noble’s goal, he put in a tremendous amount of effort during the second period and particularly when it became his turn to fulfil the lone striker role. Not only did he cover a huge distance but he did so at pace and did not allow the Southampton defenders any time on the ball. It was one of Michail Antonio’s quieter games but, not for the first time, he ended up playing in three positions in one game. As with the ‘Cheikhou Kouyate at right back situation’ you can understand the emergency use of a player out of position but to have it happen so regularly has an air of disorganisation.

No Way, Pedro!

Without doubt a man-of-the-match performance from Pedro Obiang. Great work to set up West Ham’s opening goal and then a superb moment to open his own goal-scoring account on the stroke of half-time. [Not such good news for our regular betting thread which has backed him to score in almost every other week before this.] If team-sheets really are completed in descending order of your best performers then surely Obiang’s is almost the first on it every week at the moment. Add in Reid and Carroll and these three create an excellent spine to our team in the majority of games. Better performances this week from captain Mark Noble and Sofiane Feghouli although we should still be scouting for better and faster alternatives. Good to see Noble get on the score-sheet although I was convinced it would be given as own goal – shows what I know about dubious goals! Feghouli was more involved than usual although he played very narrow (possibly under instruction) and did not offer temporary full-back, Kouyate, much protection.

Ratings: Randolph (6), Kouyate (6), Reid (7), Fonte (7), Cresswell (6), Feghouli (6), Obiang (9), Noble (7), Snodgrass (7), Antonio (6), Carroll (8) Subs: Lanzini (5), Collins (6)

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 30

A good decision to not stake too much on the City game!

Fancy A Bet

Our 10 point stake was blown out of the water in the first half on Wednesday night bringing our balance down to 120 points. We now face an away game at Southampton and remember that they beat us convincingly 3-0 earlier this season at the London Stadium. Nobody really expects us to win on Saturday, including me, but I refuse to bet against us, so my stakes on Saturday will be:

4 points on West Ham to win the game @15/4 (19)
2 points on the game ending as a score draw @4/1 (10)
1 point on Antonio to score the first goal and the game to end 1-1 @50/1 (51)

And then 3 fun accumulators:

1 point – A double on the Southampton v West Ham and West Brom v Stoke games to both end in score draws @22.5/1 (23.5)
1 point – A four game accumulator on the above two games plus Hull v Liverpool and Leicester v Man Utd – all four games to end as score draws @619/1 (620)
1 point – A six game accumulator for the following six teams to win this weekend: Chelsea, Palace, Everton, Watford, Tottenham and Man City @ 17/1 (18)

Total stake 10 points, bringing our balance down to 110 points. Potential returns if correct in brackets.

Matchday: Hammers travel south to St Marys

West Ham travel to St Mary’s in Southampton in search of a maiden victory.

Southampton West Ham One of several players who have featured for both West Ham and Southampton is ‘old fashioned centre forward’ Iain Dowie. In addition to scoring one of the finest own goals ever, in a League Cup tie at Stockport, Dowie’s legacy to football is the concept of ‘bouncebackability’. Today is a chance for the Hammers to demonstrate their aptitude for resurrection as they travel to Southampton on the back of midweek humiliation at the hands of Manchester City.

Ask most West Ham supporters and they will be adamant that the Hammers are a far bigger club than Southampton, yet in reality they are currently part of a small group of teams, along with ourselves and Everton (plus Newcastle when they come back up), who have aspirations of nicking that spare Europa League spot and enjoying the occasional jaunt into Europe. Southampton have the appearance of a very organised and well run club with a modern compact stadium, excellent training facilities (I wonder how Jose Fonte compares them to our own Rush Green base) and a recruitment system that has shown great stability in an environment where talented players and managers have come and gone in search of what they felt were greater things.

“They have some new players and some injuries, and it will be a tough game for us and for them. It is an important game because we are only one point above them and we want to make that gap bigger.”

– Slaven Bilic

Since experiencing severe financial difficulties and entering administration, in the wake of the Redknapp curse, the Saints have demonstrated their own bounceback proficiency and during the past five seasons they have pipped us for automatic promotion from the Championship and finished above us in three of the last four Premier League seasons. The current manager and team have not pulled up any trees in the League this season but have still managed to make it to the League Cup final.

Head to Head

Matches between West Ham and Southampton date back to the Southern League in 1899 with a first Football League Division 2 encounter taking place in 1922. Since then there have been a total of 95 games of which West Ham have won 35, drawn 28 and lost 32. The record away from home in 48 matches is won 10, drawn 16 and lost 22. West Ham have yet to win at the St Mary’s Stadium which has seen 3 defeats and 4 draws in 7 games,

The last win on the road was a 3-2 success in November 2000 with goals from Kanoute, Pearce (S) and Sinclair.

Team News

Very few of the players who turned out against Manchester City have reason to qualify as the first name on the manager’s team-sheet this afternoon. However, with a fairly limited number of viable juggling options available to him it is likely that the manager will plump for the largely similar personnel once again. Cheikhou Kouyate has returned from the ACON and would be straight back in, for his athleticism alone, if I was picking the team . Reports suggest that Sam Byram may be doubtful with a hamstring injury and so it could be a return to a back three with either Kouyate or James Collins linking up with Winston Reid and Jose Fonte. If Kouyate is selected in midfield expect the manager to do this at the expense of Pedro Obiang, who despite being our best player for most of the season will be penalised for his poor show on Wednesday. The more reasonable decision would be to bring in Kouyate for Mark Noble who looks to have even more treacle in his boots as each week goes by. Robert Snodgrass will surely start in place of Sofiane Feghouli.

“We know this team, they have come back well in the table lately. They are a good opponent with confidence and we have to play a strong game.”

– Claude Puel

Interesting to see what type of reception Fonte receives from his former supporters and whether he is able to help the coaching team plot Southampton’s downfall. Fonte was quoted as saying that the players did not follow the manager’s instructions during the midweek game and hopefully he can provide some on-field leadership in that regard.

Southampton are missing leading scorer Charlie Austin and best player Djik Van Dijk and with doubts over Rodriguez and Ward-Prowse they are close to what a fromer manager might have called the ‘bare bones’. Bertrand and Tadic always seem to play well against us and manage to exploit our generosity on the flanks.

It is improbable that we have been able to address the lack of relative fitness in our squad over the past three days but it is fingers crossed that we go into the match with some sort of game-plan that is then executed with hard work, effort and commitment.

Man in the Middle

A rare Premier League appointment today for Graham Scott from Oxfordshire. Scott’s only previous encounter with the Hammers was the League Cup defeat at home to Aldershot in August 2011 when he sent off Callum McNaughton, playing his one and only game for West Ham. In a total 19 games this season Scott has awarded 67 Yellow and 3 Red cards.

Southampton Preview

Can we reverse the result at the London Stadium in September?

Southampton West Ham

We move on to game twenty-four in our topsy-turvy season. We have a trip to the St Mary’s stadium on the south coast to face a Southampton side whose season has been just as inconsistent as our own. Anybody who saw them beat us convincingly 3-0 in the sixth game of the season, at which point they had a five point lead over us in the table, would be surprised that they now sit one place and one point below us in that congested area which sees Stoke in 9^th place on 29 points and Bournemouth in 14^th on 26. We are 11^th on 28 points, at a midpoint of nine points below Everton who currently sit in our finishing place last season (7^th), and nine points above the drop zone.

It is highly unlikely that we can improve enough to move upwards to finish 7^th as we did last season, and improbable that we can implode to finish in the drop zone either. So mid-table obscurity is the order of the day, and an exit from cup competitions means that we have little to play for other than pride, and to finish as high as possible to earn financial rewards that are based on finishing positions.

Realistically, based on our performances to date, our final finishing position is very likely to be somewhere between 9^th and 14^th, so the six clubs in that band, Stoke, Burnley, West Ham, Southampton, Watford and Bournemouth, separated by just three points, are in a mini-league hoping to finish at the top (i.e 9^th). These six teams can perhaps be considered to have performed the most inconsistently this season, and all six have lost more games than they have won, without being that bad to be considered relegation candidates.

The prize money for a 9^th place finish is £24 million, and drops by £2m for each position, down to £14million for finishing 14^th. The difference of £10 million is sufficient to buy you another solid Premier League footballer (such as Robert Snodgrass, for example) who will help you to retain a mid-table position the following season, but not enough to buy any players to take us to the next level.

So the games against the other five teams in my mini-league take on added significance, and we have yet to play all of them for a second time this season, and the first of these games is on Saturday. We have already met all five of them at home, so they are all away games between now and the end of the season.

Our opponents on Saturday have beaten seven teams so far, Swansea, Burnley, Everton, Middlesbrough, Bournemouth and Leicester, in addition to ourselves. By the middle of December they had only lost five times, but a very poor run since then has seen them lose five of their last six league games. Their only win in that time was a 3-0 win over Leicester in their last but one game.

Of the six aforementioned teams in my mini-league, only Burnley and Leicester are still in the FA Cup, although Southampton have performed well in the EFL Cup to reach the final where they will take on Manchester United at the end of February. It is surprising to me as to how many of them fielded weakened teams in the FA Cup competition this season. None of them were in a position to challenge for a European place, and none of them were likely to be involved in the relegation dogfight. Surely they owed it to their fans to try to win the FA Cup? Fans will remember a visit to Wembley to contest the FA Cup final for years to come, but they won’t remember the difference between finishing 9^th and 14^th in the Premier League. We can exclude ourselves of course. We put out a strong team but were still battered by a rampant Manchester City team in the third round!

So what will happen when we take on one of the other “inconsistent” teams this weekend? To be quite frank I haven’t a clue. Based on current league form since around mid-December, we have performed better in our last eight games than our opponents, winning five of them to their two victories. But for many of those we weren’t that impressive, but nonetheless they were victories. On the other hand Southampton will remember their victory at our place earlier in the season.

We were both promoted to the Premier League in 2012 and have met nine times since then. We have won three times (all at home), they have won three (including two at our place), and three have been drawn (two of them goalless). We last won on their ground in November 2000, more than sixteen years ago, when goals from Kanoute, Stuart Pearce, and Sinclair, helped us to a 3-2 victory.

The smart money (according to the bookmakers) is on a home win, with Southampton odds-on to collect three points. I hope that we can prove them wrong and win there for the first time in a long while, but realistically I predict a 1-1 draw, replicating the score in the game in April 2013, and an important point against one of the other teams in the race to finish 9^th! On that day less than four years ago, Andy Carroll scored our goal, and he is the only player in our team from that day who is likely to face the Saints on Saturday. How times change. Other players in the starting line-up that day included Jaaskelainen, Demel, Diame, Nolan, O’Brien, O’Neill, Jarvis, Tomkins and Vaz Te, all long gone. The only other starter on that day who could possibly play is James Collins, but I suspect he will be on the bench.

The Lawro Challenge – Week 24

The season long challenge takes an alarming twist as Lawro takes a slender lead.

Lawro Crystal Ball The whole concept behind this challenge was to prove the assertion of how hopeless Lawro was at predicting the outcome of Premier League matches. He may be able to come out on top against an assortment of minor celebrities but that was never going to be the case against a couple of seasoned and insightful football enthusiasts. Well now the unthinkable has happened and Lawro has taken a narrow lead in our season long head-to-head challenge.

Twenty-three rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 230 matches. In Week 23, Rich scored 5 points, Geoff 3 points, and Lawro 8 points. Lawro has hit the top of the league and holds a one point lead, with 150 matches still to forecast before the end of the season. Can he hang on at the top?

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 24.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 22 weeks	180	140	178
Score in week 23	5	3	8
Total after 23 weeks	185	143	186

Predictions – Week 24
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Chelsea v Arsenal	2-1	1-2	2-0
Palace v Sunderland	2-1	1-1	2-1
Everton v Bournemouth	2-0	3-1	2-0
Hull v Liverpool	1-1	0-2	0-2
Southampton v West Ham	1-1	0-1	2-1
Watford v Burnley	2-1	2-0	1-1
West Brom v Stoke	1-1	2-2	2-1
Tottenham v Middlesbrough	2-0	3-0	2-0
Sunday
Man City v Swansea	3-1	5-0	3-0
Leicester v Man United	1-1	0-2	1-1

West Ham 0:4 Manchester City

The Premier League gap is getting wider.

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The top six teams in the Premier league are a long way ahead of the remaining fourteen. It is just as if there are two competitions. The points difference is vast, as is the revenue that they generate. The quality of footballer from all over the world that the top six teams are able to attract means that the others just cannot compete. Sure, the top teams do have off days and suffer the occasional defeat to one of the lesser teams, but that happens rarely these days. And when it does happen, the manager of the lesser team usually manages to come up with a plan to stop the big team playing. If they are frustrated for long enough, and if they are having an off-day, then the big team can lose. But just take a look at the league table. It tells the whole story of how money influences football these days. And the Financial Fair Play rules don’t help either.

But what about last season I hear you say? Little Leicester broke the mould and romped away with the title. Yes, I have to admit that was the case, but I believe it was the combination of three outstanding players (Kante, Mahrez and Vardy) hitting a purple streak of form, the other players in the team all playing above themselves for a long period, and the top teams all having an off-season at the same time. I don’t think we will ever see it happen again. Well perhaps there may be another freak year, but I honestly don’t expect to see it. And look where Leicester are now. Just a couple of points above the drop zone in the second half of the following season. Normal service has been resumed.

The rich clubs are getting richer, and the gap from the others is widening all the time. It would take the injection of serious money into one of the teams outside of this elite to give them any sort of chance of competing. Our current owners are very rich men by British standards, but are not in the same league as the foreign owners of the top teams. I’m not knocking them, and I am grateful that they came in when they did. They do their best and they are fans. But while they are in charge we will not be able to bridge the gap; a fact that they themselves have admitted in that they say they will only sell to mega-rich buyers who can inject the sort of money that they cannot, to take us to another level.

Geoff summed up the game perfectly in his article Five Observations From City Humiliation. Unfortunately, positives from the game were few and far between. Carroll lacked any real support, although Antonio covered every blade of grass in an attempt to help him up front. Randolph couldn’t be faulted for any of the goals conceded, Reid had a steady game, and Snodgrass looked lively when he came on.

Most of the others had poor games. Obiang has been excellent lately and I will excuse him on this one, although his poor pass led directly to their third goal. Not that it really mattered by then. I don’t know what has happened to Cresswell this season. His performances have generally been very poor and his two memorable contributions last night were a woeful pass that led to the first goal, and then missing the target by miles when put through by Carroll for our only clear opening in the game. I cannot see him getting anywhere near future England squads if he continues as he has for most of this season.

When you play against teams such as Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham or Chelsea, who all move the ball at pace, you have to develop a method of competing. One thing you cannot do is gift them the ball in midfield to set up a swift attack which invariably leads to a goal. If you can frustrate them for long enough, they can sometimes go off the boil. The one thing you must not do is concede sloppy goals. But I am afraid that is exactly what we were guilty of once again.

Although a season ticket holder I couldn’t get to the game so I had to endure the BT Sport coverage. I’m afraid that in my opinion it doesn’t come close to that provided by Sky Sports. Commentator Ian Darke should stick to boxing, and Glenn Hoddle and Owen Hargreaves were poor (a bit like us really!), as well as being factually inaccurate at times. More than once Hoddle described the pitch as vast, and said that we should reduce its size because of the way we play. Well firstly, the pitch is the regulation size that all Premier League clubs should have, provided their ground allows for it, and secondly we are not allowed to reduce it. In fact it is the same width as Upton Park and just over four metres longer. But this is just one example of some of the (in my opinion) nonsense that came from the mouths of the co-commentators and pundits on the programme.

I watched the game through to the end, unlike many thousands at the stadium who decided that they had seen enough long before the final whistle, and were trudging off to Stratford station in their droves. I felt quite deflated at our performance, but realistically it is not a competitive game when we are playing against a team who can have a player of the calibre of Aguero sitting on the bench (well, padded seat). We are nowhere near the top teams, and the best we can hope for is to play for a place in the top half, and even try to emulate last season’s seventh place finish. Even that looks unlikely with Everton too far ahead.

I’m not sure that Bilic has the tactical nous for the job, even though a large number of fans love him. It was interesting to see Roberto Mancini sitting in with the directors. I wonder if he was a guest of Manchester City who had sacked him a few seasons ago, or perhaps even a guest of our own board?

Nevertheless, ever the optimist, and a fan of almost sixty years who has seen it all before, I will take my seat for the next home game against a West Brom team on Saturday week, who, much to my surprise, Pulis has inspired to punch above their weight this season. Before then we visit Southampton this weekend, to face another of the teams aiming for seventh place, which in effect is the competition to finish top of the second tier of the Premier League.

5 Observations from City Humiliation

Another night of tame surrender against Manchester City at the London Stadium.

Were they great or were we terrible?

Whenever I see such an uneven game as happened last night (and indeed the cup tie a few weeks ago) I wonder how much of it was due to the opposition playing really well and how much was down to our own incompetence. Generally commentators like to take a polarised view but usually it is a combination of the two. There are many similarities in the style of play of Manchester City and Arsenal and it is telling that both have thumped us on our own turf. For many years we have been vulnerable against teams that run at our defence at pace. We seem able to competently nod away crosses until the cows come home but incisive passing and movement rips through the heart of our defences at will and with ease. My sense is that even our players recognise this collective fragility and once the first goal goes in then, as far as they are concerned, it is just of case of how many will follow – as if it is a fate that no-one has the wit or strength to resist.

Where have all the tactics gone?

Manchester City are a very wealthy club who probably have far better players that don’t even make the bench than West Ham do as regular starters. This is the way of modern cash rich football and it will be impossible for West Ham to get close to the top teams without major external investment, which will probably happen just before the next financial crisis. In the meantime it is still 11 versus 11 and last year we enjoyed notable success against several top clubs by tactically stifling their major threats. Tactics appeared to be patently absent yesterday with no particularly plan to either offset the attacking threat of a quick breaking opposition or in putting their inconsistent back-line under any form of pressure. It was if all that was written on the dressing room white board was “Hope for the Best”. With the array of attacking talent at their disposal you need to frustrate and press City and not give them acres of space to play as they please. Whenever I have seen them as casual observer it is obvious how important de Bruyne is to them offensively and yet we were happy to give him a free access all areas pass. Not for the first time we were completely over-run in midfield. We may still have lost regardless but the speed with which heads dropped and spirit evaporated shows a disappointing absence of leadership and character.

All things must pass

In his post-match comments Slaven Bilic bemoaned the fact that we gave the ball away cheaply for two of the first three goals. It would be difficult to disagree with the manager on that one but the fact is that it has been a problem all season, just that we were punished for that sloppiness by a clinical City side on this occasion. I believe that we are one of the worst teams for maintaining possession where it matters in the Premier League and it makes me wonder whether anything is done in training in order to improve matters. As I have written previously good passing teams do not only rely solely on successful execution of the pass but also on having more than one player making themselves available at any one time. Obiang’s pass that led to the third goal was an example of poor execution but quite what Cresswell was thinking for the all-important opening goal is anyone’s guess, there was no West Ham player anywhere near where he played the ball. Far too often when our players do not have the ball they stand about static and flat footed.

No place for sentiment

Football is a very different game from when I first started watching, a time when players stayed at clubs for years and many were local lads made good. It is unfortunate that much of the sense of community and belonging has been lost but most of football has faced reality and moved with the times. I often feel that West Ham are stuck in a time warp with a sentimentality that is at odds with the multi-million pound industry that football has become. It is not enough for a player or manager to be West Ham through and through or for someone to keep his place in the team because he did alright last time out. A team needs to be selected that can get the best from any particular fixture. There are still many unanswered questions on Slaven Bilic’s managerial credentials at Premier League level. The recent run of wins bought him some time but he does not convince. I am sure he is a nice guy but football is full of nice failures. I would imagine that his performance during the remainder of the season will be under extreme scrutiny and that it will require noticeable improvement if he is to keep his job. His record on player recruitment, tactics, preparation, fitness and selection leaves much to be desired as far as I am concerned. It would be great to see him succeed but I am not hopeful.

What about the positives?

The most significant positive is that we do not have to play Manchester City again this season and our only remaining heavy defeat should be away at Arsenal. Other than that Michail Antonio worked hard and new signing Robert Snodgrass looked sharp when he finally came on. I was wrong in my pre-match prediction that we would be 2 goals down when Snodgrass came off the bench. The other debutant Jose Fonte had a bit of a nightmare and worryingly looked very slow, let’s hope he has a couple more gears in the mythical locker.

Ratings: Randolph (6), Byram (4), Reid (6), Fonte (4), Cresswell (4), Obiang (5), Noble (5), Feghouli (3), Lanzini (5), Antonio (7), Carroll (6) Subs: Snodgrass (6), Fernandes (5), Fletcher (5)