Predictions – Under The Hammers

The struggle for Premier League survival will resume this weekend when West Ham visit Anfield

How many more points will we need?

At the beginning of each Premier League season you will often hear managers quoted as saying that their aim is to reach 40 points which will ensure that they remain in the top flight for another year. It is a sad state of affairs that, although there are 20 clubs taking part in the competition, only 6 of them at the most have any realistic chance of coming out on top. The remaining 14, which include ourselves, have no chance whatsoever. It is the same (or even worse) in all the top leagues in Europe. That is why I advocated in my previous article that all the top European teams take part in a European league and do not take part in their domestic league. Would we miss playing the top teams? I for one would not.

Take this season for example. If you ignored the top six sides then all of the remaining 14 (plus another six from the Championship) would believe at the beginning of the season that they had a chance of winning the league. It would make for a much more interesting competition when most of the teams involved could win. But that is not the case (yet) although I remain hopeful that one day it will happen.

In the meantime the most interesting aspect of the Premier League for me is the competition to finish 7^th, and at the same time the battle to avoid finishing in the bottom three. West Ham fans will remember that in 2002-3 we were relegated despite attaining 42 points in a 38 game season. But that was 15 years ago. In the 14 seasons since then 42 points would have comfortably been enough to retain top flight status. Only once (in 2010-11) would it have been necessary to reach 40 points to stay up, and in fact in the season before that just 31 would have done. If you look at the last 5 years (or 10 years) then 36 is the average figure needed to avoid the drop.

According to the BBC website, data analysts Gracenote Sports have apparently run over 1 million simulations to estimate the chances of all teams being relegated. They came to the conclusion that West Ham have a 6% chance of being relegated; in other words the odds are around 16-1. After all these 1 million simulations they concluded that 40 points will definitely be enough to avoid the drop, 38 points will more than likely be enough, and any team with 34 points or less will definitely be relegated.

Without running all these simulations I have produced my own forecast based upon how all of the teams in the bottom 11 of the table have performed for the season to date, and then projected their finishing points if they attain points at the same rate. Now not all of the teams will do that; some will do better and some worse. But I believe that it is reasonable to assume that, on average, the bottom 11 clubs will pick up the same number of points per game in the run-in that they have achieved for the season to date.

The table below sets out the results of my calculations (it took me approximately 5 minutes to do this). I think I could have saved Gracenote Sports from running one million simulations, as the results of my projection suggest that 40 points will definitely be enough to avoid the drop, 38 points will more than likely be enough (but only just), and any team with 34 points or less will definitely be relegated. Pretty similar to their conclusions!

So on this basis, 10 more points from our last 11 games will definitely be enough, 8 more points will probably be OK, but 7 points or less could mean that we are playing in the Championship next season. That assumes, of course, that we don’t get a repeat of the 2002-03 season, although the closeness of the teams in the bottom half of the table suggests that will not be the case.

The bottom 11 teams in the Premier League after 27 games	Points after 27 games	Projected Points from last 11 games	Total
10. AFC Bournemouth	31	13	44
11. Watford	30	12	42
12. West Ham	30	12	42
13. Newcastle	28	11	39
14. Brighton	28	11	39
15. Crystal Palace	27	11	38
16. Swansea	27	11	38
17. Huddersfield	27	11	38
18. Southampton	26	11	37
19. Stoke City	25	10	35
20. West Brom	20	8	28

So where will we collect the necessary points from? Six of our final eleven games are at home, although the next two (At Liverpool and Swansea) are away. That means that our performances at the London Stadium will be vital in ensuring our safety. So far this season we average 1.46 points per game at home, and 0.79 on out travels, so continuing with this average would almost certainly be enough. But we have to bear in mind that 8 of our final 11 games are against teams in the top nine in the table, and of those 8 teams the only one that we defeated in our first game against them this season was Chelsea.

The three “crunch” games would therefore seem to be the home games against Southampton and Stoke, and the away game at Swansea. Failure to win these (or at the very least pick up 7 points) would mean that it is likely that it will be necessary to get results on one or more of our travels to Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester, or at home to the two Manchester clubs, Burnley, and Everton. It will be nerve-racking if it goes down to the wire, and we need something from our final game at home to Everton. I hope it doesn’t come down to that! Based on our recent form we should be OK.

Dreaming Dreams of a Top Eight Finish for West Ham

Today Under The Hammer’s Richard Bennett looks forward to the new Premier League season.

The 2017-18 season has arrived. Being a bit of a traditionalist, in the past the opening day was always one I looked forward to. All teams in the top flight would kick off at 3pm on the first Saturday, and by 5 o’clock you could see the first league table with all the teams having completed their first game. Of course, because of television that is not now the case, and this season the opening games begin on Friday evening, and continue through until Sunday, when our game at Old Trafford is the last one.

I had to smile when I saw the BBC league table where we were showing in 20^th place (because of alphabetical order) before a ball has been kicked. By Saturday evening we will have moved off the bottom provided all the games on Friday and Saturday haven’t ended in draws! And when we kick off we will know what we have to do to be top of the table at the completion of matchday 1, or alternatively what we need to do to avoid being bottom of the pile.

This is written in jest of course, because the league table doesn’t really begin to take shape until at least half a dozen games have been played by each side. But by then, it is important not to be close to the bottom, as psychologically you feel that you are in a relegation scrap from the outset if you are. By the time we reach the third international break early in November, 11 games will have been played, five at home and six away, and by then we will have a good idea how our season will pan out.

By Christmas Day we will have reached the half-way point in the season (19 games played), but unusually we won’t have played all the other 19 teams at this point. The fixtures computer usually (in recent years) arranges it so that we have played them all, but by Christmas we will have played Newcastle home and away, but not played Bournemouth at all. We play them on Boxing Day.

But is it really that difficult to predict the eventual outcome in the Premier League by the end of the season? Last season my co-weblogger Geoff Hopkins and I made a forecast before the first games were played as to where each team would finish at the end. Our predictions were relatively accurate, as we predicted the top six (though not in the correct order), and not one of our finishing positions was more than six places out from the eventual outcome. This was no great achievement because it is not hard to know roughly what will happen before a ball has been kicked. Of course we were all taken by surprise with Leicester the season before, but that was a one-off which is extremely unlikely to happen again. Going back a few years it was much harder to forecast what would happen each season.

The Premier League is actually more open than almost all the other leagues in Europe, in that before the season starts there are likely to be anything up to six teams who may be in contention for the title. Compare that to other countries where the champions will come from perhaps two or three teams at the most.

Nevertheless despite the apparent predictability, Geoff and I will forecast the finishing positions of each team in the Premier League in the form of a friendly competition (see Geoff’s prediction here.). We score 0 points if we get the finishing position spot on, or one point for each position that we are out. Like the quiz Pointless the lowest score wins. Last year our scores were 54-57, so on average we were less than three positions out for each team, confirming the predictability of the league.

Last time I predicted a seventh place finish for West Ham to match the successful season that preceded it. We eventually ended up in 11^th, although of course we were only one point behind the eighth placed team. Only six points separated 8^th from 17^th in the Premier League, so it can be close for the teams vying for the 8^th spot, which if it follows last season, will be a competition in itself, because I believe the top seven spots will already be taken. Of course I hope I am wrong, and that our pre-season fixtures are not a true indication of how we will perform. Perhaps we can do a Leicester? If you believe that then the majority of bookmakers will offer you odds of 500-1.

My forecast for 2017-18 is as follows:

Manchester City
Manchester United
Chelsea
Arsenal
Tottenham
Liverpool
Everton
West Ham
Leicester
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
West Brom
Bournemouth
Southampton
Swansea
Stoke
Burnley
Brighton
Huddersfield
Watford

Can The Hammers Enjoy a Season in the Sun?

A review of the West Ham and the upcoming 2017/ 18 Premier League by Under The Hammer’s Geoff Hopkins.

As we prepare for the start of another Premier League season I find myself in a similar position to the one that heralded the final year of Fat Sam’s reign. Unfortunately, I don’t believe we have a manager that can deliver in the long term and yet, regardless of circumstances, I always want the team to win every game, and so could take no pleasure from being proved right about the manager’s limitations. In fact, I would be more than happy for him to prove me wrong by as much as he likes. The trouble is I see little to suggest that anything has changed in the management and coaching mindset to address the many problems that we witnessed in team performance and organisation last year.

I understand it is a reasonable argument to put forward that Bilic has had one good season in charge and one poor one; and so deserves a third as an opportunity to prove himself; but it leaves everyone in a rather precarious and uncertain situation of a manger in the final year of his contract where safety first will be the order of the day.

Two years ago when West Ham faced Arsenal away on the opening weekend of the season and came away with a stunning 2-0 victory it seemed we had struck gold with a tactically astute manager playing attractive football at the helm at last. This was quickly followed up with a run of other unexpected wins against top clubs before performances started to gradually fall away despite the emotion generated from the last season at Upton Park. In a season where the big clubs largely under-performed the Hammers were inspired by the flair and free-kicks of flawed Frenchman Dimitri Payet. Yet a system and passion that worked well against elite clubs often failed to deliver, at least on a consistent basis, against the lesser teams where the team lacked shape, pace and penetration. With poor recruitment the following summer and once Payet had downed tools, the underlying cracks in organisation and tactics were revealed for all to see. It would not be the first time that a manager had done well in his first season built on a predecessor’s foundation but then faded badly.

The general consensus is that West Ham have had a spectacular summer transfer window. In contrast to last summer, and the bizarre January recruitment, that may well be the case but it seems premature to pat ourselves on the back too enthusiastically just yet. Let’s wait and see how the new signings perform before getting too carried away. Does Zabaleta still have the legs and motivation? Can Hernandez deliver as a regular lone striker starter? How consistent will Arnautovic be? Does it make sense for your first choice keeper to be only on loan? Will Bilic, given his uncertain position, take the risk of blooding any young players? We can all speculate but only time will tell for sure. I would like to believe in my heart that we could be competing for a best of the rest seventh but my head says mid-table at best.

As for the squad itself, it looks stronger on paper when compared to how we know the team performed last season. But a performing team needs to be more than the sum of its parts and in modern football attack and defence must be conducted as a unit and requires organisation, pace, mobility and fitness in addition to the underlying technical skills. Too often West Ham teams have a disjointed look with the merest hint of cohesion between the constituent parts of the formation. In a Premier League awash with money every team has good technical players and so how those talents are utilised and integrated becomes even more important and is the true measure of coaching.

In goal, Hart is an upgrade (but not a massive one) on Adrian and if the rumours of Adrian wanting out are true then we could be left with a bit of an embarrassing hole between the sticks.

The defence says old, frail and error prone to me unless it is strengthened before the transfer window closes (and not with Kone!). Reid is a top quality defender but is not without injury concerns. Ogbonna has a tendency to switch off and allow opponents too much room, Collins is decent as emergency cover but Fonte looks something of a dud, at least in a back four. It is a case of wait and see as far as Zabaleta is concerned while Cresswell, Masuaku and Byram are all better when going forward than defending. Will Rice be given a chance? Maybe, but most likely as a defensive midfielder from the bench.

The squad is packed with midfield players of one type or another but the optimum combination is difficult to identify. West Ham rarely dominate a match these days and that is a direct consequence of poor ball retention, options and movement, particularly in the midfield areas.

Any team needs to be solid at the centre of midfield where defensive and pressing responsibilities are key. Obiang is a class act but Noble, bless his claret and blue cotton socks, is too slow in movement and distribution these days while Kouyate, despite his athleticism, lacks the required discipline and is a poor passer of the ball. Fernandes is sometimes mentioned as an option but, for me, needs a more attacking role that suits his physique and range of passing. An additional defensive/ holding midfielder would be another at the top of my priority list.

The realistic attacking midfield options are Lanzini (assuming we keep hold of him), Antonio and Arnautovic backed up by Ayew, Fernandes and possibly new signing Haksabanovic. I suppose there is also Feghouli and Snodgrass until we hear otherwise. Hopefully Arnautovic can assist Lanzini in the creativity department but can he help out his full-back when required? Will Antonio get a long run in his preferred and most effective wide right position or does Bilic have different plans for him? Will Haksabanovic be given a chance and what exactly is Ayew’s position?

The troublesome striker position now has a potential solution with the recruitment of Hernandez. On the assumption that he will be the main striker playing up front on his own it will be interesting to see how he adapts. His goals scored per minutes on the pitch record at Manchester United was impressive and came courtesy of some very clinical finishing off the bench; his role at West Ham will be a whole new challenge for him. At the moment the only back-up is from perennial sick-notes Carroll and Sakho. Could a Hernandez/ Carroll partnership work? Possibly in certain circumstances but taking a player out of a fragile midfield would create its own problems.

I don’t expect a season of struggle but I do foresee an unspectacular one with a disjointed team that relies heavily on set pieces for its goals. I don’t disagree with Bilic that individual errors need to be eliminated but that is by no means the extent, or even the most important, of the shortcomings.

Mentally, I would include West Ham in a group of teams who should be capable of grabbing seventh spot with the help of a good following wind and good fortune with injuries and refereeing decsions; alongside the likes of Everton, Leicester, Southampton, Newcastle and even Palace. Everton have lost Lukaku and have the distraction of European Thursday night football, Leicester have bought and retained well, Southampton and Palace have new managers inexperienced in English football and Newcastle need to adapt to life back at the top. There is a chance but do we have the confidence, desire and discipline to take it? I really hope we give it a go and can show the same commitment as if we were playing Tottenham every week.

In time honoured fashion I will end with my prediction for the final Premier League table season 2017/18:

1          Manchester United
2          Manchester City
3          Tottenham
4          Arsenal
5          Liverpool
6          Chelsea
7          Everton
8          Leicester
9          Southampton
10       Crystal Palace
11       West Ham
12       Newcastle
13       Watford
14       Bournemouth
15       Stoke
16       Swansea
17       West Bromwich Albion
18       Burnley
19       Huddersfield
20       Brighton

Lawro Challenge: The Final Countdown

It’s hats off to Lawro as he sneaks over the line in the conclusion to our season long challenge.

Lawro Crystal Ball So it seems that Lawro is not the hopeless tipster that we believed him to be. At least he was good enough to see off both Rich and Geoff in our season long Lawro Challenge. If it were not for his obsession with Liverpool he would almost look insightful.

In the final week of the challenge, Rich scored 11 points, Geoff 7 points, and Lawro 9 points. At one point, around mid-way through the second half of all the games, if no further goals had been scored then Rich would have made up the 8 point deficit on Lawro and the challenge would have ended as a tie. But as West Ham know to their cost, games are played for 90 minutes, and as further goals went in Lawro fought back to end up the winner by six points.

In this challenge we awarded one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction was spot on. Although Rich predicted more correct results than Lawro, he didn’t do as well in forecasting the correct scores.

Final Table

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 37 weeks	283	230	291
Score in week 38	11	7	9
Total after 38 weeks	294	237	300

The Lawro Challenge – Week 38 – The Conclusion

Lawro has the pomagne on ice while Rich needs snookers if he is to prevent the BBC pundit from snaffling the predictor challenge.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 37, Rich scored 10 points, Geoff 6 points, and Lawro 10 points. Lawro has retained his 8 point lead as we move into the final set of games for the season.

He now looks a shoe-in to win the challenge although it is not mathematically certain yet.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on, so there are still 30 points up for grabs.

We now proceed to week 38, the final week of the Premier League season.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 36 weeks	273	224	281
Score in week 37	10	6	10
Total after 37 weeks	283	230	291

Predictions – Week 38
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Sunday
Arsenal v Everton	1-0	3-0	2-0
Burnley v West Ham	2-1	3-1	2-0
Chelsea v Sunderland	4-0	4-1	3-0
Hull v Tottenham	0-3	1-3	0-2
Leicester v Bournemouth	3-2	2-2	2-0
Liverpool v Middlesbrough	3-0	4-0	2-0
Man United v Palace	2-0	0-1	1-1
Southampton v Stoke	2-0	1-0	1-2
Swansea v West Brom	2-0	2-0	2-1
Watford v Man City	0-4	0-2	0-3

The Lawro Challenge – Week 37

Will Lawro hold his nerve to claim the title as football’s Nostradamus in the penultimate round of match predictions?

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 36, Geoff took the honours once again. Rich scored 7 points, Geoff 10 points, and Lawro 8 points. Lawro now has an 8 point lead with just two weeks of the season to go. How different could it have been if Chelsea had scored a fourth goal against Middlesbrough which looked likely? Lawro’s lead would have been cut to four points as a result. He now looks a certainty to win the challenge unless Rich can forecast some correct scores to bridge the gap this week, ensuring an exciting finish in the last week of the season.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 37.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 35 weeks	266	214	273
Score in week 36	7	10	8
Total after 36 weeks	273	224	281

Predictions – Week 37
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Friday
Everton v Watford	3-0	3-1	2-0
West Brom v Chelsea	0-1	1-2	0-2
Saturday
Man City v Leicester	3-1	3-2	2-0
Bournemouth v Burnley	2-1	0-0	1-1
Middlesbrough v Southampton	0-0	2-0	1-2
Sunderland v Swansea	1-2	1-1	1-1
Stoke v Arsenal	1-1	0-1	0-2
Sunday
Palace v Hull	2-1	1-0	1-1
West Ham v Liverpool	2-1	3-3	1-1
Tottenham v Man United	0-0	2-0	2-1

The Lawro Challenge – Week 36

Tension mounts as the two horse Lawro challenge race enters the final furlong.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 35, Geoff took the honours. Rich scored 3 points, Geoff 4 points, and Lawro 2 points. By some distance this was our poorest week for predicting the scores / results of Premier League games in the whole season, and demonstrated the unpredictability of some of the games in the top flight. Although Rich has forecast the most correct results, Lawro has been spot on with a greater number of correct scores. We now have just three weeks to go and Lawro has a 7 point lead. Can he be caught?

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 36.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 34 weeks	263	210	271
Score in week 35	3	4	2
Total after 35 weeks	266	214	273

Predictions – Week 36
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Friday
West Ham v Tottenham	1-1	1-5	0-2
Saturday
Man City v Palace	2-0	2-1	3-0
Bournemouth v Stoke	2-1	0-0	1-1
Burnley v West Brom	1-1	1-0	1-1
Hull v Sunderland	3-0	1-1	2-0
Leicester v Watford	3-0	3-0	2-0
Swansea v Everton	2-1	2-2	2-1
Sunday
Liverpool v Southampton	2-1	1-1	2-0
Arsenal v Man. United	0-0	2-0	1-1
Monday
Chelsea v Middlesbrough	4-0	2-0	3-0

The Lawro Challenge – Week 35

As the season and our prediction challenge gets close to a climax it is still all to play for.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 34, Rich scored 7 points, Geoff 6 points, and Lawro 3 points. This means that Lawro’s lead has been cut to 8 points. With just four weeks remaining and the finishing line coming into view can a jittery Lawro retain his position at the top? The contest is becoming almost as exciting as the scoring in Eurovision.

It is amusing that some folks take Lawro’s predictions to heart (see this post on the Claret & Hugh web blog). It is only a bit of fun and about as serious as your daily horoscope. In an inconsistent season results have been notoriously difficult to predict.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

Now is the time to proceed to week 35.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 33 weeks	256	204	268
Score in week 34	7	6	3
Total after 34 weeks	263	210	271

Predictions – Week 35
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Southampton v Hull	1-1	1-2	2-0
Stoke v West Ham	1-0	0-1	2-0
Sunderland v Bournemouth	2-1	0-2	1-1
West Brom v Leicester	2-2	1-1	2-1
Palace v Burnley	2-0	1-2	2-1
Sunday
Man U v Swansea	2-1	3-0	2-0
Everton v Chelsea	1-1	0-0	0-2
Middlesbrough v Man City	0-3	1-3	0-2
Tottenham v Arsenal	2-1	4-2	1-1
Monday
Watford v Liverpool	1-3	2-3	1-2

The Lawro Challenge – Week 34

All to play for in the Predictor Challenge as everyone sees at least at point for the Hammers this weekend.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 33, Rich scored 6 points, Geoff 8 points, and Lawro 7 points. Lawro’s lead has been extended to 12 points. Can he afford to relax? This week we have a reduced league programme but include the two FA Cup semi-finals where we forecast the scores after 90 minutes.

Also, this week I had a look at the league table that was formed by Lawro’s predictions this season. The team at the top of the league were Liverpool. What a surprise! It just goes to show that even when you are being paid to make predictions the bias shows. I am the same, although I am not being paid. I am just an optimist!

The same is true of the pundits on TV. Their lack of neutrality shows through. I even recently heard an ex-Liverpool player when giving his thoughts on a Liverpool game constantly saying “we”. Personally I would prefer to hear the views of neutrals, but I guess I am in the minority as broadcasters always seem to want to involve ex-players of the clubs involved in a particular game. And, anyway, there are probably more ex-Liverpool players doing the pundit job than those from other clubs.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 34.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 32 weeks	250	196	261
Score in week 33	6	8	7
Total after 33 weeks	256	204	268

Predictions – Week 34
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Bournemouth v Middlesbrough	2-1	1-1	2-0
Hull v Watford	2-0	2-0	2-1
Swansea v Stoke	1-0	2-1	1-1
West Ham v Everton	2-1	2-2	1-1
Chelsea v Tottenham S/F 90 minutes	0-1	1-4	1-1
Sunday
Burnley v Manchester United	1-2	0-1	1-1
Liverpool v Palace	3-1	4-2	2-0
Arsenal v Man City S/F 90 minutes	2-2	3-4	0-2

The Lawro Challenge – Week 33

The heat is on Lawro as his lead at the top of the Predictor Challenge is cut to 11 points.

Lawro Crystal Ball Week 32 of the Lawro Challenge saw the gap at the top of the leaderboard cut to 11 points as Rich scored a creditable 8 points compared with Lawro’s meagre 5 points. For a change Geoff split the two pacesetters weighing in with 6 points.

Still plenty to play for and with teams either battling for European slots, to avoid relegation or simply ticking off the days until they start their Mediterranean the results could even more unpredictable than before. Still plenty of time for Rich to put further pressure on Lawro while Geoff checks out the cost of 10 day all-inclusive breaks in Torremolinos

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 33.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 31 weeks	242	190	256
Score in week 32	8	6	5
Total after 32 weeks	250	196	261

Predictions – Week 33
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Tottenham v Bournemouth	2-0	3-1	3-0
Palace v Leicester	1-0	1-1	2-1
Everton v Burnley	3-1	2-0	2-0
Stoke v Hull	1-1	1-0	2-0
Sunderland v West Ham	0-2	1-1	2-1
Watford v Swansea	1-2	2-0	2-1
Southampton v Man City	2-2	1-2	0-2
Sunday
West Brom v Liverpool	1-2	2-2	0-2
Man Utd v Chelsea	1-2	0-0	0-2
Monday
Middlesbrough v Arsenal	0-1	0-2	0-2