Betting – Under The Hammers

Can West Ham defy statistics and odds to win at Old Trafford?

When I was young I was interested in statistics but few were available to the average fan. We had league tables of course but little else. We had no idea regarding various statistics that are available today. Now you can know possession percentages, passes, completed passes, touches in opponent’s box, shots, shots on target, expected goals, distance covered by individual players and whole team and many more etc. etc.

Are we really interested in all these details? Some are I guess but to most of us the only real statistics of any importance are the goals scored in each game, the result, and the subsequent effect on the league table. Of course detailed statistics will have greater importance for the clubs themselves when analysing performance of individuals and the team as a whole. Bookmakers will also be interested when setting odds for games.

Having said all that I’ll now use some freely available statistics to look ahead to our game at Old Trafford this afternoon.

In their last 14 fixtures at Old Trafford against West Ham, Manchester United have won 11, drawn 3, and lost 0.

Manchester United have come out on top in their last 4 games against West Ham.

In their last 14 home Premier League games against all opponents Manchester United have won 8, drawn 5, and lost 1.

In their last 14 Premier League away games West Ham have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 10.

West Ham have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 17 Premier League away games.

West Ham have scored just 3 away goals in the Premier League so far this season.

As an away team manager David Moyes has the following record at Old Trafford- won 0, drawn 4, lost 11.

There are thousands more that almost all point to a Manchester United win. But statistics didn’t indicate that Brighton would thrash Chelsea yesterday, that Leeds would win at Anfield last night, nor any other upsets that occur in football.

The odds for the match result are 4/6 for a home win, 15/4 for an away win and 3/1 for the draw.

With all this information I’ll predict the result of the game. I’ll go for a 2-2 draw. My bookmaker will offer me 16/1. He doesn’t think it’ll happen. I won’t mind being wrong if West Ham win the game. It hasn’t happened for 15 years. Not since that Carlos Tevez famous winner.

We’ve lost our place in the top half of the table following yesterday’s results. I’m hoping for a win to regain it but would be happy with a draw.

It’s about time we defied the statistics and the odds. What are the chances?

What are the odds on a West Ham win on the South Coast today?

A win big enough to move up to eighth in the table is priced at 200/1 upwards.

At the conclusion of the Southampton v West Ham game this evening we will have reached the halfway point in the 2018-19 Premier League season. A season that began so disastrously with four defeats in the first four games has turned around significantly, and we find ourselves in twelfth place in the table prior to this game. A defeat or a draw will see us remain in that position, but a win by any score will lift us into the top half of the table. We will be joint ninth with a 1-0 win, and ninth on our own by any other score. I think that even the most optimistic amongst us cannot see us winning by five goals to overtake Everton in eighth position.

We face a Southampton side lifted by the appointment of their new Austrian manager, and the Saints are favourites to win the game with the bookmakers at around 6/5. West Ham are second favourites at 23/10 slightly ahead of the draw at 12/5.

Correct score odds for the most popular scores are:

1-1: 11/2; 2-1: 7/1; 1-0: 15/2; 1-2: 9/1; 2-0: 10/1; 0-0: 10/1; 0-1: 10/1; 2-2: 10/1; 0-2: 14/1

First goalscorer odds:

Ings 4/1; Austin 11/2: Gabbiadini/Chicarito 13/2; Long/Carroll 7/1; Obafemi/Antonio/Perez 15/2.

If you fancy a West Ham defender to score the first goal then Diop or Ogbonna are priced at 45/1; Masuaku at 50/1 and Zabaleta 70/1.

You can get identical prices on scoring the last goal too.

A couple of scorecasts that I like the look at for fun bets are West Ham to win the game 2-1 with the first goal scored by Diop at 265/1 or Masuaku at 310/1. Once again you can get roughly the same odds (or even longer) by substituting the last goal for the first goal and looking around at the various prices being offered by the wide range of bookmakers all offering hundreds of prices.

A win big enough to move up to eighth in the table is priced at 200/1 upwards. It would be good (although extremely unlikely) to achieve that! I’ll just settle for the three points and a position in the top half of the table.

Betting on a West Ham Title Win: What Are The Chances?

Can West Ham win the Premier League? What are the chances? We take a look at some of the bets being offered by bookmakers for the forthcoming season.

Despite our chairman’s belief that anything can happen we all know that the chances of West Ham winning the Premier League are very close to non-existent. Despite being an optimist when it comes to our team, I know that it would take a miracle for us to emulate the feat of Leicester the season before last. That was a one-off 5000-1 unbelievable occurrence that is never likely to be repeated.

Bookmakers don’t get a lot wrong, and I’ve been looking through the odds quoted by a couple of dozen leading firms as to who will win the title this season. Despite some small variations there is a great deal of consistency in what is being offered. After Leicester’s unlikely success the quoted odds are not really very realistic for the teams outside the elite six, and the generosity of years gone by has been replaced by some ridiculously short figures, when we all know that there are only six teams that can possibly come out on top. I’m surprised that they don’t try to tempt punters to waste their money with figures of at least 10,000/1 or more, which would reflect the likely chances of the “bottom” 13 or 14 teams winning the league.

Manchester City are the clear favourites with every single firm that I looked at. The odds quoted are shorter than 2/1 in every case, which, for a competition of 38 matches is a very short price. Chelsea and Manchester United are vying for second favouritism with both being offered between 3/1 and 4/1 to win. Tottenham come next at much longer odds of between 8/1 and 10/1, with Arsenal and Liverpool each being quoted between 11/1 and 14/1.

Not surprisingly, these are the only six teams given any realistic chance of lifting the title by the bookmakers. Everton are seventh favourites at odds of around 80/1, and then we are in a band of four clubs (along with Leicester, Southampton and Newcastle) being offered at anything between 200/1 and 500/1. The shortest odds I saw for West Ham were 250/1, although if you want to have a fun bet on our team you can shop around and get around 500/1 from a number of firms. Even at those odds, not very realistic!

You can get odds of 1000/1 upwards for the remaining nine teams in the league, with the longest prices that I saw being Burnley and Huddersfield at 3000/1.

If you believe that we can finish in the top four (we did come fairly close the season before last, after all), the odds vary between 25/1 and 80/1, so once again, shop around if you want to place a bet. The elite six are all quoted at around evens or much shorter for a top four place. The odds on us finishing in the top six are generally around 10/1 to 12/1, although I have seen 20/1 quoted, and if you want to bet on us finishing in the top half of the table (top 10), the odds vary between even money and 6/4. Betway quote odds on finishing top of the Premier League if the “big 7” teams are excluded, of 5/1, and this is perhaps the best bet I’ve seen offered.

You can get up to 200/1 on us finishing as the top London club, and up to 500/1 on us topping the Premier League on Christmas Day. Our new signing, Chicarito, is quoted at odds up to 40/1 to finish as the Premier League’s leading goalscorer.

For any real pessimists out there (and you do see some on various social media sites) you can get odds of 10/1 on us being relegated, or even up to 50/1 on us finishing at the very bottom of the league!

Of course, as all of us long standing West Ham fans know, you never really know what to expect of our team, so betting on them can be a precarious business because of their unpredictability. But if you like a bet on a one-off match, which is my personal preference when betting on West Ham, then you can get up to 12/1 on us winning our opening day fixture at Old Trafford, or 4/1 on a draw. For me, these are value bets in comparison to those on offer for the season as a whole.

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 44: Success at the Last

Success in our final week of the season for both West Ham and our betting fund.

We had a lot of fun bets in the final week of the season, and one of them was successful:

2 points on West Ham to win and both teams to score @9/2 (11)

We came very close in some of the others, but nevertheless we ended the season at +12 points to carry forward to next year. It has been a lot of fun, and to come out at the end in profit is no mean feat, especially when the vast majority of our bets have been variations on West Ham to win games.

At one stage we were quite a bit up, although a run of bad results plunged us into deficit. We were saved by the magnificent win over Tottenham in our penultimate home game of the season. It is enjoyable providing that you don’t bet more than you can afford to lose, and that is especially the case when betting on West Ham, where you never really know what is going to happen.

We’ll be back with more betting next season.

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 43

The final week of the Premier League season

Fancy A Bet Our bets on West Ham to beat Liverpool fell down spectacularly last Sunday, just like the team themselves. So as we reach the final week of the league season we are 16.5 points in profit, and have had a lot of fun bets on the way. At times we’ve been unlucky, but everyone who ever puts money on football, horse racing, or any of the other thousands of things you can bet on these days, will tell you similar hard luck stories.

But to be 16.5 points up is quite an achievement, and this time we’ll concentrate on some unlikely fun bets to finish the season.

I haven’t got a clue what will happen this week, so here goes:

2 points on Burnley to win and both teams to score @7/2 (9)
2 points on West Ham to win and both teams to score @9/2 (11)
2.5 points on a drawn game @12/5 (8.5)
1 point on half time Burnley 1-0, full time Burnley 2-1 @25/1 (26)
1 point on half time West Ham 1-0, full time West Ham 2-1 @30/1 (31)
1 point on half time 1-1, full time 2-2 @40/1 (41)
1 point on half time 0-0, full time 2-2 @100-1 (101)
1 point on half time 2-2, full time 2-2 @275-1 (276)
1 point on half time 0-0, full time Burnley 2-1 @40/1 (41)
1 point on half time 0-0, full time West Ham 2-1 @50/1 (51)
1 point on half time 0-0, full time 1-1 @16/1 (17)
1 point on an accumulator on the 10 Premier League games on Sunday, predicting that there will be no draws and the following 10 teams will win: Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea, Tottenham, Leicester, Liverpool, Manchester United, Southampton, Swansea, Manchester City @128/1 (129)

We’ll make a tidy profit if any of the half time / full time predictions come to fruition, and even if not, we’ll get something back if either team wins providing both teams score, or if the game ends in a draw. Total stake 15.5 points, making our balance for the season +1 point.

The potential returns for each bet are in brackets. What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 42

The biggest win of the season. Can we make it four clean sheets in a row?

Fancy A Bet

Call it reckless. Call it brave. At last the tide has turned. The 31 points that we staked at 13/2 on West Ham to beat Tottenham yielded 232.5 points, putting us 32.5 points up for the season. What a result for us and our team!

We came very close to a big win at White Hart Lane, but it wasn’t to be as we threw away a lead with just minutes to go. This time we made no mistake, and (in my opinion) our best performance and result of the season meant that we turned around our fortunes. This was the first time we had beaten a team currently in the top eight this season.

The unbeaten run continues and Adrian is definitely trying to prove a point by not letting in a goal since his return. For the first time this season, and for only the second time in over three years, we didn’t concede a goal in three consecutive league games. Can we make it four?

Liverpool need the points to keep up their challenge for a top four spot. Although they are already in one of the Champions League positions, they can still lose out to Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal, and could finish as low as sixth with results going against them in the last week of the season. They cannot afford to lose this game, but I will keep my faith in another West Ham win against one of the top teams..

So this week’s bets will be:

10 points on West Ham to beat Liverpool @19/5 (48)
2 points on West Ham to win to nil @15/2 (17)
2 points on West Ham to win and both teams to score @7/1 (16)
1 point on West Ham to win the game 1-0 @14/1
1 point on West Ham to win 1-0 and Calleri to score the goal @100/1 (101)

Total stake 16 points, making our balance for the season +16.5 points.

If we win the game then it will be another big points haul.

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 41

Another bet on an unlikely result. Let us hope we can confound current form and pull off a shock win.

Fancy A Bet

So once again our bets fell down. At least I had the satisfaction of us not losing the game against Stoke, which was the main aim! Now we are 159 points down for the season to date.

Well, in for a penny, in for a point, I’ll go for the most unlikely result on Friday evening and bet on West Ham to beat Tottenham, with a saver on a draw. Given the respective form of the two sides, I would have to say that beating our North London rivals this week is as close to an impossibility as we have had in this fixture for some time. Much as I don’t like them, I have to concede that Tottenham have as good a team as they have had for some years, and their style and consistency of play makes them easily one of the best two teams in the country, and if they hold on to their best players and manager, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them going one better next season than the runners-up spot that they managed last year, and look likely to repeat this time.

The odds of a West Ham win are nowhere near as generous as they ought to be, and at 13/2, the bookies are saying we have about a 13.3% chance of winning the game. I would say that the chances are realistically lower than that. Nevertheless, we put a halt on their aspirations of getting to the top last March, and the reverse fixture at White Hart Lane this season was a game that we could, and probably should have won. But we must also remember that we haven’t (yet!) beaten any of the sides who are currently in the top eight of the Premier League this season in 14 attempts. We have two chances to rectify this; tonight’s game, and a home again against Liverpool in just over a week.

So, I will stake 31 points at 13/2 (232.5) on a West Ham victory, and 10 points at 15/4 (47.5) on a draw making it minus 200 points for the season so far. In the unlikely event that we pull off a shock win, and how I hope we do, then it will make up for some of the recent disappointing results. We’ve only won one game in our last eleven Premier League fixtures. Can we make it two out of twelve?

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 40

A change in approach.

Fancy A Bet What a season to choose to bet on West Ham! The sheer unpredictability of our team, and our ability to throw away more points from a winning position than any other team in the Premier League has been our downfall, and is a lesson in not to bet on them. Our loss last week meant that our running total is now down to minus 99 points for the season. Fortunately I have got some more funds to invest, so this week I am going to try something different. I am going to bet on us to lose the game at Stoke. I really don’t mind losing the bet if it brings about a change of fortune in our results.

Stoke are 11/10 to win the game, and though they have not had the best run of results lately I am going to stake 40 points on them to beat us. They are also 11/4 to win the game to nil, and with our lack of firepower I believe (unfortunately) that this is a good bet too.

40 points at 11/10 on Stoke to beat West Ham (84)
20 points on Stoke to win the game to nil @11/4 (75)

By staking 60 points on the game then this brings our balance down to minus 159 points. I really hope that I lose the bet and we get something out of the game. But if we don’t there is a minor consolation of a winning bet or two. In fact if Stoke do win the game and we fail to score then our return would be 159 points, and would wipe out our deficit entirely.

Not sensible betting I know, but I can’t lose can I? If we lose the game then I win with the bet, and if we get a draw or win, then that will bring us closer to safety.

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 39

Here we go again

Fancy A Bet

If bookmakers paid out after 85 minutes of a game of football we would have been well in profit by now. But of course they don’t, and as we all know, betting on West Ham can be a precarious business. Once again we threw away a game from a winning position very close to the end. It wasn’t the first time, and I’m sure it won’t be the last.

Our balance is now down to 20 points, meaning that we are 80 points down in the season. Unless our fortunes change soon, or at least stop hiding, then we will be out of funds soon.

This weekend it is Everton. The obvious bet is, of course, for Lukaku to score the first goal (7/2), or Lukaku to score anytime (11/10), but I’m not going to do that. But he always does, doesn’t he?

With Carroll apparently out, Antonio definitely out, and Sakho, well I don’t know what to believe any more, then we are a bit thin on the ground when it comes to scoring goals. But there is always Calleri!

It would be so easy to write us off for this game, but I will continue to believe that we may spring a surprise. So adding a touch of caution this week, I will spend 19 of the 20 points we have left as follows:

10 points on West Ham to beat Everton @11/5 (32)
4 points on West Ham to win and both teams to score @9/2 (22)
5 points as a saver on a score draw @16/5 (21)

If we win or the game ends in a score draw then we make a profit on the week. If we lose then this could be the penultimate week of this weekly column as we will be down to a solitary point. That is, of course, unless I can find some more points from somewhere.

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?

I Wouldn't Bet On It 38

A win at last keeps out betting pot alive.

Fancy A Bet

At last we had a win. Just like West Ham who beat Swansea 1-0 to give us a much needed boost. We had one winning bet:

20 points on West Ham to beat Swansea at 21/20 (41)

This brings our balance back up to 46 points.

This week we take on Sunderland who already look like they are down. We’ll keep it simple with two bets:

20 points on West Ham to beat Sunderland @13/10 (46)
6 points on West Ham to win to nil @3/1 (24)

Total stake 26 points bringing our balance down to 20 points.

The potential returns are in brackets. Can we make it two wins and two clean sheets on the bounce?

What are the chances?