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During the famous 1985/86 season West Ham only played one league matches between the middle of January and mid-March due to inclement weather and frozen pitches leading to severe fixture congestion during the final weeks of the season. Strangely, FA cup games were not affected and this week saw the culmination of a long running 4^th round battle with Ipswich as the Hammers triumphed in a second replay at Portman Road by a solitary Tony Cottee goal.

If you can cast your mind back to 1989 you will remember it as a disappointing season that ended in relegation and the dismissal of John Lyall after 34 years with club.  The season was briefly brightened by an enjoyable League Cup campaign which included stirring home victories against Liverpool and Aston Villa. The semi-final opponents this week for the first leg at Upton Park were fellow first division strugglers Luton Town. The game was to prove just as disappointing as the rest of the season as Luton took a 3-0 lead into the second leg with goals from Mick Harford, Ray Wegerle and Danny Wilson (a penalty conceded by a young Julian Dicks). Luton went on to win the tie 5-0 on aggregate before losing in the final to Nottingham Forest.

There was also League cup semi-final exit in 1967 when once again West Bromwich Albion proved to be our nemesis. Having lost to Albion in the final the previous year a 2-2 draw in the second leg at Upton Park was academic as the Baggies booked their place at Wembley with a 6-2 aggregate win.

It was a much happier Upton Park in 1981, however, when second division West Ham faced first division Coventry City in a second leg semi-final encounter with the task of turning round a 3-2 first leg deficit. In what was one of those special nights under the Boleyn floodlights West Ham played some exceptional football (John Lyall described it as ‘some of the best football I’ve ever seen from a West Ham team’). Second half goals by Paul Goddard and an 87th minute strike from Jimmy Neighbour rounded off a great night on what was Billy Bonds 600th appearance for West Ham; setting up a final against Liverpool.

Parkes, Stewart, Lampard, Bonds, Martin, Devonshire, Neighbour, Goddard, Cross, Brooking, Pike

There may have been a 9 goal thriller at Goodison Park on Saturday but in 2000 West Ham featured in an unforgettable clash with Bradford City that not only had 9 goals but all-sorts of added drama. With the score goalless West Ham keeper suffered a broken leg after just 5 minutes played to be replaced by 18 year old Stephen Bywater making his first team debut. Bradford opened the scoring after 30 minutes through Dean Windass but the Hammers were soon level when Trevor Sinclair swept home and then led when John Moncur fired in from long range. However, it was back to all square at the interval as Peter Beagrie converted from the penalty spot following a push in the box by Moncur. After the break Bradford took the advantage with two goals from a red-haired Jamie Lawrence, the first a fumble by Bywater, gave the Bantams a 2-0 lead. As West Ham pushed forward Paolo Di Canio was denied several penalty appeals prompting him to demand that manager Harry Redknapp take him off. Redknapp managed to calm the Italian down and moments later West Ham were finally awarded a penalty, for a foul on Paul Kitson. This led to a penalty area tug-of-war between Di Canio and Frank Lampard Jnr as to who should take the resulting kick; in the end Di Canio prevailed and, fortunately for him, scored from the spot to make it 3-4. A goal from Joe Cole brought the scores level again after 65 minutes before Lampard struck from the edge of the area with seven minutes remaining to complete the scoring at 5-4 to West Ham.  Possibly one of the most bizarre matches ever to take place at the Boleyn.

Hislop (Bywater), Charles (Kitson), Minto, Lomas, Stimac, Ferdinand, Sinclair, Cole, Di Canio, Lampard, Moncur

With a temporary hiatus in West Ham’s fixture commitment due to an early cup exit, and while other Premier League teams field second rate sides in the 4th round in deference to the imminent Match-week 23,  I have taken the opportunity to dust down my football statistics soapbox and take another look at how our heroes have performed this campaign as far as the soccer statisticians are concerned.

My position on statistics is that they are an interesting diversion and a perfect destination for the procrastinator but are ultimately meaningless as a means of analysing games, providing no further insight over and above what the eyes can tell the average supporter.  The ever expanding mass of football statistics are most frequently used by the desperate in  attempting to prove a point about their favourite player (why Noble is better than Kouyate or vice versa) or to pad out column inches in printed and online media (just like this one!)  In the last week or so my attention has been grabbed by a number of posts that inform readers exactly what the statistics reveal.  For example, they apparently ‘reveal’ that Liverpool are not very good defensively (no shit, Sherlock!) and, closer to home, that Pedro Obiang is the ‘best’ tackler in the Premier League.  Recently the Daily Star had a feature on the worst player at every club according to the statistics; the recipient of this accolade for West Ham being Ashley Fletcher who came out as the 5^th worst player overall.

For the purposes of analysis I have once again referenced the excellent whoscored website.  Even though I pay little heed to the how football statistics are used the site provides a comprehensive and well presented resource that includes an intriguing real-time stat update during the course of the game if you are so inclined.  According to Whoscored over 200 raw statistics are fed into complex algorithms in order to derive both the team and player ratings.

Ratings are based on a unique, comprehensive statistical algorithm, calculated live during the game. There are over 200 raw statistics included in the calculation of a player’’s/team’’s rating, weighted according to their influence within the game. Every event of importance is taken into account, with a positive or negative effect on ratings weighted in relation to its area on the pitch and its outcome.

– Whoscored website

Looking at the team ratings the order of clubs is uncannily consistent with the current Premier League placings.  The top 7 clubs are all the same with the minor discrepancy that the order of the two Manchester clubs are reversed.  In Whoscored terms West Ham show up in 8th place overall rather than the actual 10th place of our league position. The lower reaches of the League also demonstrates a strong correlation between actual and statistical placings except that Palace appear several places higher (14th against 18th) from the perspective of statistical performance.  So what does all this prove?  Does it validate the statistics and the algorithms applied or is it simply the case that scoring goals and winning games carries the same weighted influence on position as do in the collection of league points?  My takeaway from West Ham’s higher position in the statistical table is that it must prove that we played well and lost on several occasions this season.  Convincing myself of such a conclusion might be stretch.

The top performing players in the league if the stats are to be believed are Alexis Sanchez, Eden Hazard and Paul Pogba.  The only Hammer to make the top 10 is Dimitri Payet (at number nine).  All of that top 10 are attacking players with the exception of Manchester City defensive stalwart Nicolas Otamendi, proving that City fans wanting him dropped are mistaken.

A point to note about the top 10 is that ratings are adjusted to account for appearances and should you look at the unadjusted ratings for West Ham you would find Andy Carroll performing better than Payet.  It is surprising to learn of the quality of Payet’s performances when the consensus of many observers is that he had been going through the motions and loafing about on the left wing.  Although I am not privy to the Whoscored algorithms I would guess that the factors driving his strong statistical performances (based on displayed data) are the number of assists (6) and man-of-the-match awards (5).

I do find the ‘assist’ a curious statistic in that a large part of earning one is dependent on someone else doing their job competently.  A player can embark on a wonderful run, go past three defenders and play a delightful pass through to a colleague who has an open goal, but if that player fluffs his lines then no assist ensues.  On the other hand make a simple routine pass to someone who rockets the ball into the net from 30 yards and you win yourself an assist.  With up to 30% of goals for some teams coming from set pieces the designated takers (Payet and Snodgrass) are always going to have an advantage with this although I fully appreciate that good delivery should not be an underestimated skill.

Ex-Arsenal boss Don Howe is credited with devising the definition of the assist when it was first created as a way of adding interest to newspaper fantasy league competitions.  From its humble beginnings it is now a mainstay of the commentator’s statistical armoury.

Looking at the individual player statistics, the top 6 high rating Hammers for the season are Carroll, Payet, Michail Antonio, Winston Reid, Arthur Masuako (yes!) and Darren Randolph.  New signing Robert Snodgrass (second in the ratings at Hull) would slot in at number 7 for West Ham just ahead of fellow midfielders Cheikhou Kouyate, Pedro Obiang and Manuel Lanzini (with skipper Mark Noble floundering in a disappointing 16^th place).  Defender Jose Fonte (11^th in the Southampton ratings) has a performance rating very slightly higher than James Collins and Angelo Ogbonna, some way behind Reid.  Fonte’s former central defensive partner, Dick Van Djik, is comfortably on the topper most rung of Southampton performers.

For the record. my personal statistic free selections for top performing West Ham players for the season to date are Obiang, Reid and Antonio.  The top 3 could well be under threat if there is more of the recent same from Carroll over the remainder of the season.

To start with an apology for previously giving the impression that Dimitri Payet was one of the most skillful players ever to wear the claret and blue of West Ham, that he was the undisputed master of the assist, the team talisman without whom we never win and a veritable sorcerer when it came to the sublime or sumptuous set-piece. We can now reveal that the petulant, perfidious Payet is in fact the quintessential cowardly, overweight, backstabbing, surrender monkey who would barely make the top 10 famous people from Reunion Island were it not for the stage presented to him by West Ham.

There has been a lot of negative comment on Payet’s behaviour in the media from pundits (even sober ones), managers and players alike although that will not prevent clubs carefully putting any principles to one side and queuing  up to offer him a lucrative contract. In an ideal world he could be left to stew but, as today’s visiting manager has demonstrated, you would need to have committed a particular heinous crime such as biting the heads of babies (or being compromised by a Russian hooker) to become unemployable in an industry as morally bankrupt as modern football.

“We haven’t got a big squad now left, we just have the players for this game. But we have enough players to put a strong team out and have good players on the bench. It is the team that I am managing. Many times clubs have lost quality players but gained a team.”

– Slaven Bilic on his small but good squad

So it is that the shamed but unrepentant ex-England manager who brings his latest long-ball charges to face the Payet-less Hammers at the London Stadium this afternoon. Both clubs would have started the season with hopes and dreams that didn’t involve a potential relegation battle but as events have panned out we find ourselves with a four-and-a-half pointer if not a fully fledged six-pointer on our hands. Expect the Fat One to set up in respect the point mode to see how the West Ham team react to their new reality.

Head to Head

Depending where you look West Ham have played Crystal Palace anywhere between 31 and 76 times. The following stats exclude long ago Southern League and war-time cup competitions which makes encounters between the two clubs a rather recent rivalry that West Ham have largely bossed. Palace have won only one of the last 5 meetings but the Hammers haven’t beaten them at home (even at fortress Upton Park) since 2003.

Team News

Whatever the West Ham lineup all the talk in the build-up, during the game and in the post match analysis will be about Dimitri Payet. The final straw for Payet apparently was when they let Cresswell take a free kick at Leicester – I knew no good would come of it!  Sam Byram and Reece Oxford are now both fit but “lack match fitness”; I would like to see both involved at some point so that they can actually work on that fitness. Ayew and Kouyate, of course, are away on international duties and Michail Antonio was reported as being ill (hopefully not with a bout of Chelsea flu!). From what has been said the manager expects Manuel Lanzini to step up to create all of our chances; so no pressure there Manuel. I would like to believe that we will put out a team full of pace, passion, movement and with not too many players played out of position.  It is only hope that keeps us going so let’s see what happens.

“If there are any fears left in their players because of the new stadium then we need to try to take advantage of it. If we can put pressure on them and try to score the first goal then that will be very important.  I had four happy years at West Ham and one of the reasons I am at Palace is because of London. I enjoyed living here.”

– Fat Sam

I am always nervous when former players and managers make a return to face West Ham and today we have two for the price of one in Fat Sam and James Tomkins. On the plus side Palace have their best (albeit very unpredictable) player, Wilfred Zaha, away at the ACON. Benteke has a shoulder injury but should be fit and Townsend will be excited at playing against a team without a proper right back.

I have my fingers crossed for a Payexit bounce and a 2-0 home win.

Man in the Middle

We are joined in the middle this afternoon by Neil Swarbrick from Lancashire. This is his second visit to the London Stadium after being in charge of the Middlesbrough game in October last year (some French player scored our goal if I remember correctly). In all competitions this season Swarbrick has featured 20 times furnishing 75 Yellows but only 2 Red cards.

Twenty rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 200 matches.

In Week 20, Rich scored 5 points, Geoff 5 points, and Lawro 8 points, enabling him to close the gap at the top still further.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now march on to week 21.

A Good Game for the Neutral

All in all an entertaining game with plenty to satisfy the neutral spectator if any were inclined to watch this game featuring two of the worst defences in the Premier League this season.  For those with a more emotional investment in the outcome Leicester supporters will have been satisfied with three points and a clean sheet; West Ham fans will be disappointed at the absence of any return for territorial dominance and seeing our winning streak monitor reset to zero.  Despite the entertainment the standard of football could easily have passed for a division or two lower; the game plagued by mistakes, little real quality and littered with examples of agricultural tackling that wouldn’t have been out of place on Hackney Marshes.

Magic Moment

The one real moment of quality was the Leicester goal.  The hosts had started with the wind in their sails and there were a number of near misses before Slimani struck with the only goal of the game.  The goal was quick, clinical and effective; an excellent cross from the right by Albrighton and great movement by Slimani to lose his markers and head home.  The postmortem suggested a lack of tracking back by Dimitri Payet was partly to blame but should we really be expecting our main creative force to be doing that?  It is the unfortunate consequence of stationing him wide on the left that it will always leave Cresswell with little cover.  The argument is that playing Payet wide allows him to cut in and provide the angles where he can weave his magic; I question whether that trade off is necessarily profitable?    After the goal the concern was that many more could follow but taking the lead seemed to panic Leicester and the Hammers were able to get back into the game.  Our own best moment was the move where Payet fed Cresswell whose cross was thumped onto the crossbar by Michail Antonio with the ball rebounding to safety.

Never Mind the Quality Where’s the Width?

During the summer transfer window one could be forgiven for assuming that top of Slaven’s shopping list was “Must Buy Some Wingers” as Feghouli, Tore and Ayew all signed on to compete for a vacant wide berth with Antonio.  The cunning plan was that send in enough quality crosses and Big Andy would be nodding them in for fun.  Strange then that, yet again, we failed to provide any real width yesterday, rarely got behind the Leicester defence and managed to put only one on Andy’s head in a threatening position during the whole game (at least that’s my memory of events).  With Payet on one flank and mainly cutting in, Antonio unable to get the better of Chilwell and Feghouli also reluctant to go down the line little service was provided to the big man.  According to the stats West Ham had 25 shots (5 on target) but most of these were free kicks and speculative long shots.  Bilic said “We were just missing that final touch” but in reality we created next to nothing despite having the lion’s share of possession.   I never had the opportunity to watch Andre Ayew at Swansea so was unsure what type of player to expect; having now watched him in several games I am still bemused by his attributes other than getting in the way, falling over and trying to play first time passes of any part of his body as often as possible.

Playing to our Weaknesses

When I saw the lineups I was staggered that Pedro Obiang was on the bench and even more baffled that he didn’t get on at any time during the match.  He has been our best player by far this season and I do not go along with the ‘it was good management’ mantra that Bilic was right to start with the same team that played at Swansea simply because we had secured an unconvincing victory against a very poor side in that game.  The Noble – Kouyate partnership has rarely impressed and playing Kouyate in the holding role (that Obiang has been performing so brilliantly) inhibits the surging runs that Cheikhou can offer in midfield.  For a team that is so poor at passing it is puzzling that our game-plan is predicated on a slow, patient build-up with its ponderous sideways and backwards momentum.  The introduction of Lanzini did inject some pace but attacks continued to flounder due to a lack of ideas.  The West Ham get out of jail card is often the set piece but although there were plenty of opportunities during the course of the game delivery was poor with Cresswell’s deflected free-kick (yes, he was allowed to take one) the nearest we came to scoring.

The Twelfth Man

It is said that a passionate crowd can be the twelfth man for a team and that this was one of Leicester’s secret weapons in last year’s successful championship winning season.  The King Power crowd is a mix of seasoned supporters supplemented with clapper (the modern day football rattle?) wielding newbies.  Together they generate a lot of noise and are collectively convinced that every refereeing decision should go in their favour.  Now maybe I can be accused of watching games through claret and blue spectacles but I thought Anthony Taylor did a decent job overall even if he was rather little lenient in not showing straight red cards to Amartey of Leicester and Nordtveit for over enthusiastic tackling and later for not issuing a second yellow to Ogbonna.  The most laughable moment with the crowd was their booing of Mark Noble for getting injured as a result of Amartey’s reckless studs high assault on his knee.  Fingers crossed that Noble’s injury is not too serious at a time that others are away at the Africa Cup of Nations.

Ratings: Randolph (7), Nordtveit (5), Reid (6), Ogbonna (5), Cresswell (7), Antonio (5), Kouyate (4), Noble (4), Payet (5), Ayew (3), Carroll (6). Subs: Lanzini (7), Feghouli (5), Fernandes (5)

Thirteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 130 matches. In Week 13, Rich scored 12 points, Geoff 7 points, and Lawro 9 points.

Quite possibly Geoff’s prediction of a scoreless draw in the Swansea v Palace game has taken the lead in the running for the worst prediction of the season award.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.