Under The Hammers

The Lawro Challenge – Week 11

Our mission to out-predict the BBC pundit predictor.

Lawro Crystal Ball Ten rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 100 matches. Just over a quarter of the season has elapsed, and Lawro has narrowed the gap at the top of the prediction league. Rich and Lawro are currently in the Man City and Arsenal positions, whereas Geoff is imitating Sunderland.

However a lot can happen in the next 280 games, just as it can to the teams in the Premier League, and Geoff has more chance of winning this challenge than Sunderland do of winning the league. But he will need to start making inroads into the points gap before falling too far behind.

In Week 10, Rich scored 5 points, Geoff 4 points, and Lawro had the best total again with 9 points. In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 9 weeks	75	54	67
Score in week 10	5	4	9
Total after 10 weeks	80	58	76

Predictions – Week 11
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
SATURDAY
Bournemouth v Sunderland	2-1	3-1	2-0
Burnley v Palace	1-1	1-2	1-1
Man City v Middlesbrough	3-0	4-0	3-0
West Ham v Stoke	2-1	3-1	1-1
Chelsea v Everton	2-1	2-0	2-1
SUNDAY
Arsenal v Tottenham	1-1	2-2	2-0
Hull v Southampton	0-1	0-2	1-1
Liverpool v Watford	4-1	3-1	3-0
Swansea v Man United	1-1	0-0	0-2
Leicester v WBA	2-0	1-0	2-1

A Tale of Two Stadiums

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times. Wisdom or foolishness, belief or incredulity?

Stadiums

Imagine there was a football team with a traditional working class support that gave up the cherished memories of its full of character home ground, which it owned, and moved away to rent a taxpayer funded converted athletics stadium. The first season at the new stadium witnessed an early European exit to an obscure eastern European outfit and then patchy form resulted in them slipping to 16th place in the league. This week that team has just defeated Barcelona and were reported to be top earners from last season’s Champions League with revenues of £76 million (equivalent to about 60% of West Ham’s annual revenue from all sources). The team is, of course, Manchester City.

Despite the obvious parallels there are also important differences. Critics of the London Stadium will point out that the conversion of the City of Manchester stadium was to a dedicated football stadium rather than a multi-purpose arena; and I’m sure there is some justification in that as far as the matchday experience is concerned. In addition, although City pay more in rent than West Ham do, and are responsible for all operating overheads, they are able to benefit more from the associated (and now significant) naming rights and matchday income.

In the first 6 years in their new home City finished 18th, 8th, 15th, 14th, 9th and 10th respectively. Despite what we may believe a shiny, new high capacity stadium doesn’t guarantee success. It wasn’t until the injection of Thai (briefly) and Abu Dhabi money that City’s new successful era began. It is arguable whether that investment would have been forthcoming if they had still played at Maine Road.

I know a few Manchester City fans and all are delighted with their new found status. They are now the second most profitable English league club, after their near neighbours, and with massive financial backing are well placed to continue the upward momentum. I don’t recall too many rumblings related to the move but, if there was a lot of moaning in Royle family style sittings rooms across the City at the time, it is long forgotten now.

Famous victories under the lights against Barca may seem a long way away to the average Hammer’s fan at the moment. The optimism of the new stadium (where it existed) has been overtaken by events and with the negativity fuelled and amplified by the media. With few exceptions the media is rather patronising towards West Ham regarding them as a wayward cousin to the ‘real’ glamour London clubs or Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham. A rare moment in the sun is tolerated but other than that the club and its supporters are seen as a caricature that belongs in an Eastender’s plot. The nature and generosity of the deal for the London stadium has made the club a perfect target for journalists and online media sites to exaggerate and repeat half truths. It has not been helped by the actions of some supporters while similar flash-points at other grounds, with Manchester City fans smashing up the toilets at Old Trafford or Liverpool fans throwing flairs on to the pitch at Selhurst Park, barely get a mention. The stories about a return to the hooliganism of the 70’s or 80’s and the stadium being unsuitable for football are clearly risible.

I have mentioned before that in the past West Ham have relied heavily on TV money for revenues; far more so than our closest rivals in financial terms do. Staying at the Boleyn Ground (as it was) did not provide any opportunity for the club to develop or even to maintain the status quo with our peers. Whether it was viable to developing Upton Park into a stadium that could generate more revenue is another question but a moot one now. The point being that West Ham’s future depended on being able to increase Matchday and, more importantly, Commercial income. The alternative was to slip further away from any aspiration to join the leading London clubs and join the also-rans of Palace, QPR and Fulham instead. It is possible that some fans would be quite happy with this situation if it meant that traditions were maintained but, as a business decision, passing up the opportunity of the London stadium move would have been foolish; particularly with Tottenham hovering in the wings.

The gulf in earnings between West Ham and the (financially) big clubs is so huge now that even if the teething problems with the new stadium are fully resolved it can only take us a few rungs up the ladder. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where we are able to grow organically into becoming a regular Champion’s League participant. Major outside investment is the only route to such a promised land and that is something that would change the club out of all recognition.

The London Stadium and its location is ideal to attract the attention of investors (likely to be overseas) but the unanswered question is what type of club do we want?

The Fixtures Computer

Can we blame the fixtures computer for the fact that we sit seventeenth in the Premier League table after a quarter of the season?

Season Fixtures

In modern times in the Premier League era, fixtures divide very neatly into two halves of the season. What I mean by this is that we play games against each of the other nineteen teams in the league in the first half of the season, which concludes very neatly on 31 December, and then play them all again between January and May. As there are twenty teams, we play nineteen matches in each half.

From August to December our nineteen games comprise nine at home and ten away. The situation is reversed in the second half with ten at home and nine away. All very logical you might think, but this has not always been the case.

My support of West Ham goes back almost sixty years, and in the first season that I remember (1958-59), our second league game of the season on 25 August was at home to the previous season’s champions, Wolves. Then our fourth game was a visit to Wolves on September 3. So, just four games into the season and we had played our quota of games against the best side in the country. Incidentally we won at home and drew away. In 1964-65 a similar situation arose when we played Manchester United at home and away on August 24 and September 2.

So, in those days there was no real balance to the season, and the league table could therefore be potentially misleading if you fulfilled all your fixtures against the top clubs early on. I’m not sure when exactly this was rectified, but the current situation of playing all nineteen teams once, before playing them all again would seem to be fairer.

If we look at this season in detail then our nine home games in 2016 are against Bournemouth (16), Watford (13), Southampton (6), Middlesbrough (P), Sunderland (17), Stoke (9), Arsenal (2), Burnley (P) and Hull (P). The figures in brackets denote last season’s league position, plus “P” for the promoted clubs. That is just three teams who finished in the top half, three in the bottom half, and all three promoted teams. On paper you would have to conclude that our home games in the first half of the season should yield a substantial points total.

Conversely the ten away games in 2016 are against Chelsea (10), Man City (4), WBA (14), Palace (15), Everton (11), Tottenham (3), Man United (5), Liverpool (8), Swansea (12), and Leicester (1). Eight of the ten games are against teams that finished in the top twelve in the league. On paper, the conclusion we can draw from this, is that it is a very tough set of away fixtures in the first half of the season.

Of course, the situation is reversed in 2017, so that in the second half of the season we have easier away games and tougher home fixtures (on paper). I’m not sure how randomly the fixtures computer allocates fixtures, but there is certainly an imbalance in the apparent strength of our opponents in our home and away fixtures in the two halves of the season. For that reason perhaps we should not take too much notice of the league table until we are a long way into the season.

Surely it wouldn’t take too much computer programming skill to ensure a much more balanced fixture list. The fixtures computer should come up with an end result such that in each half of the season we play roughly half of our home games against teams that finished in the top half in the previous season, and half against teams from the bottom half. The same should be true of the spread of away fixtures.

This would be fairer to all teams, both top and bottom, and would ensure that the league table is more representative of the strength of clubs throughout the season, and give an indication of finishing positions much sooner. As it stands, teams with tough early fixtures could find themselves in a relegation dogfight early on in the season, which then inhibits the way that they play for the remainder.

So does this explain why we sit in seventeenth place after ten games of the season? No. It may be a partial factor, but we are there because of poor defending, plus the fact that we are as weak as I can remember at scoring goals. We have only found the net ten times in ten games, and conceded nineteen at the other end. Only Sunderland and Hull have conceded more goals than we have, and have poorer goal difference statistics.

Over a whole season an average of one goal a game would give us just 38 goals. In the last twenty-five years we’ve only managed such a poor scoring record twice. In one of those seasons we were relegated, and in the other we escaped relegation on the last day of the season. And conceding 19 goals in ten games or 1.9 goals a game would equate to 72 in 38 games. When did we last concede that many goals or more in a season? Fifty years ago in 1966-67. But in that year we scored eighty!

West Ham Heroes – Number 4 – Billy Bonds

Six foot two, Eyes are blue, Billy Bonds is after you!

Billy Bonds

Throughout most of the 1950’s and the early 1960’s the number 2 shirt at West Ham was owned by John Bond. He was the right back in our FA Cup winning side in 1964 and was really the only number 2 I ever remember in my early years of watching West Ham. He played his last game for us in 1965, and was followed towards the end of the European Cup Winners Cup winning season by Joe Kirkup and Dennis Burnett. But we really needed to strengthen the team in this position so Ron Greenwood signed William Arthur Bonds, known to us all as Billy, in 1967.

Those of us who were there on 19 August 1967 for the opening game of the season against Sheffield Wednesday witnessed the debut of the player who went on to play more games for the club than any other, 799, in a long career that spanned 21 seasons. He started at right back and without a doubt he was the best player I have ever seen in that position at West Ham.

Around three years later he was switched to play in midfield and formed an amazing partnership alongside Trevor Brooking. Throughout the first half of the 1970’s he continued in this role and once again, I have to say he was the best player I have ever seen at the club in the “box-to-box” midfield role.

He became captain when Bobby Moore left in 1974, and for the final ten years at West Ham he played at the back, initially alongside Tommy Taylor, and then formed an excellent partnership with the young Alvin Martin. He was one of the best centre backs I’ve ever seen at West Ham too, and in all three roles at the club he excelled.

He would be one of the first names in my all-time West Ham heroes team, and could fill any of the three positions, but perhaps he was at his playing peak in the early 1970’s when he single-handedly won so many games for the club from midfield.

To be honest I cannot recall a single game where I left the ground thinking that he hadn’t played well. He was fully committed throughout every game, and perhaps his skill was overshadowed by his commitment to win the ball when our opponents had it, but you shouldn’t be fooled, he was great with the ball too.

If I had to pick out one game that I remember above all others it was the day in March 1974 when we beat Chelsea 3-0 and Bill scored a hat-trick. He finished that season as leading scorer, which was most unusual from a midfield role, particularly in those times. Around the time of the Chelsea game I remember seeing him score a magnificent left-footed volley from outside the penalty area in a game against Coventry at Upton Park. I was standing on the North Bank directly in line with the shot.

He was always considered to be the fittest player at the club, and was almost 42 when he retired at the end of the 1987-88 season. I’ve watched the England team since the late 1950’s and when I think of some of the players who have pulled on the three lions shirt, then I am amazed that Bill never did. Without a shadow of a doubt he was the best English footballer I have ever seen (by a country mile) who never represented the full national team. He came very close a couple of times, but injury denied him in the end.

After being a youth team coach at the club, he became manager following the resignation of Lou Macari in 1990, and in his first full season at the helm led us to promotion. In the following ill-fated “Bond scheme” season that followed we were relegated, but the following year he led us back up into the top flight. He resigned in August 1994 when Harry Redknapp took over, and the two of them, who were very close friends, have never spoken since. The circumstances regarding the resignation have differing versions according to what you read.

Many consider that he was the best West Ham manager ever. Certainly those who trust statistics do. His win percentage of 44% is the highest of all full time West Ham bosses in history, his losing percentage of 30% is the lowest of all full time West Ham bosses in history, and the goals scored minus the goals conceded per game at 0.32 is also the best of all full time West Ham bosses in history.

He was Hammer of the Year four times, was awarded the MBE, won the PFA Merit award when he retired, and was the initial recipient of the West Ham lifetime achievement award in 2013. Quite simply he was an absolute West Ham legend. I’d personally like to see greater recognition for him at our new stadium.

5 Thing We Learned From Defeat At Everton

A few tricks but no treats in the lessons from last weekend’s match.

5 Things WHU You may already have read the excellent 20 Questions article inspired by Sunday’s defeat at Goodison Park. For good measure here are some additional takeaways from the game following a little more quiet reflection.

Early Dominance but No Reward

Going into the game with a shot of confidence most of us were probably reasonably happy with the display in the first 20 minutes or so. We had plenty of the ball, passed and moved well and Lukaku hardly got a kick. Payet and Lanzini were bossing matters as far as creativity was concerned and it seemed that the momentum was with the Hammers against an opposition suffering a longish winless streak. Koeman spoke about having words at half time but in fact Everton had sorted it out on the pitch before then. The inability to turn good possession into at least one goal appeared to dispirit the team and the early intensity fizzled out. As in a few games last year the Payet/ Lanzini combination faded as the game went on; whether it is because they lack the stamina to maintain that intensity level or whether it was due to Everton closing them down more quickly I cannot decide. Antonio worked hard with good movement and, as suggested by Jim Beglin, is likely the best forward we have available at the moment. He created space for others but is not the natural goalscorer that is so badly missing from our ranks.

The Return of the Injured Strikers

It is true that injuries have yet again been unkind and losing Ayew to the treatment room alongside Carroll and Sakho was extremely unfortunate. Ayew is now back and hopefully can show us what he can do but I doubt he is lone striker material. It would take a very optimistic fan to imagine a lasting return to full fitness for the other two invalids. Both would seem to have conditions that will continue to plague them. With Sakho there is the additional question of his temperament (and whether he has burnt his bridges with Bilic) and with Carroll I still have reservations about his all-round game. On occasions (Arsenal at home last season) he did indeed look ‘unplayable’ but I would disagree that he is “brilliant outside of the box” as suggested by Bilic last week. He does not have the technique nor mobility to play the effective lone striker role in the modern game. Could we play two up front? Unlikely without getting overrun in the midfield. The striker conundrum remains with us even with a fully fit squad.

Three at the Back and Cresswell

One of the disappointing aspects of Sunday’s game was that Cresswell didn’t seem to get as far forward to link up with Payet as he usual does. Despite being a full-back he is one of our most potent attacking threats and far more competent at crossing the ball than other players that we employ specifically for that purpose. The three at the formation should theoretically allow him more freedom to get forward but the impression I took away from the game was that he had been instructed not to venture too far forward. This was possibly to counter the threat of Bolasie and if that was the case it raises the question of whether the 3 man backline was the best option in the circumstances. Despite Everton being the better team I thought Reid and Ogbonna could have done much more the prevent the two goals. Reid was both slow to react and lightweight in his challenge for the first and Ogbonna looked like he was on a training jog when tailing Lukaku for the second; that he might have anticipated an offside call is no excuse.

Those Crazy Substitutions

The substitutions were puzzling particularly from the perspective of the players taken off. By that stage of the game the most under-performing players were Noble and Payet who were both giving away possession and offering little creatively. Maybe there was a notion that Payet could grab something from a set piece but on the evidence of the day this seemed unlikely. It was confusing that the two most effective midfield players (Obiang and Fernandes) were the first to be sacrificed. I can understand the imperative to make changes and ‘give it a go’ but keeping some degree of shape is important and the changes contributed more to the second goal that they did to any greater attacking threat. It was expected that Ayew would be given a further 20 to 30 minutes but he was unable to create much impact. The introduction of Zaza was akin to throwing in the towel and Feghouli, who I do have lingering hopes for, only provided a masterclass in how not to cross the ball. Antonio may have claimed the record for number of positions played in a single match. This certainly did not help in creating cohesion.

League and Cup Form

At the end we were unable to build on the momentum from the excellent performance in the EFL Cup against Chelsea to improve our league position and end this round of matches just outside the relegation places. In the This Week in Hammer’s History post we highlighted two seasons where West Ham reached League Cup semi-finals and FA Cup 6th Rounds in 1988/89 and 2010/11. Now we all love a cup run but in both those seasons we were relegated. Thankfully, I do not believe in omens (………….or do I?).

This Week in Hammer’s History

A week that encompasses Halloween to Guy Fawkes night has produced its fair share of scary moments and fireworks.

This Week Hammers History If you had ventured along to Upton Park on 4 November 1995 you would have been one of the few people to have seen Marco Boogers in action for West Ham in the 4-1 defeat by Aston Villa . Our only signing of note in the pre-season the million pound striker’s career with the Hammers consisted of just 4 substitute appearances. We lost each of these games and in one he was famously sent off at Old Trafford for a “sickening horror tackle” on Gary Neville. Harry Redknapp who had signed Boogers on the strength of video footage claims that this was his worst ever signing although apparently Marco never did go to seek refuge in caravan.

In 1988 West Ham thumped Derby 5-0 (Stewart, Martin (2), Keen, Rosenior) in a 3rd round League Cup tie. It was a season where we reached the semi-final of that competition and the 6th round of the FA Cup but were also relegated. A feat also achieved during the Avram Grant season. So beware of good cup and poor league from! Three seasons later we had returned to the top flight but were relegated once more but not without recording a shock 1-0 victory at Highbury on 2 November through a Mike Small screamer past David Seaman.

Some excellent goals were scored in a topsy-turvey encounter with QPR on 2 November 1968 including a Bobby Moore piledriver and a spectacular Harry Redknapp volleyed winner. The goal celebrations were far more restrained back then. A few years previously on 4 November 1961 West Ham had won 5-3 away to Manchester City (Sealey (2), Dick (2), Musgrove) in a match notable for Booby Moore’s only sending off as a West Ham player.

As an aside Moore was also sent off while at Fulham in a 1976 league cup replay away to Bolton. In a game of few stoppages Bolton had equalised in the 6th minute of injury time resulting in Moore given his marching orders for dissent. Bobby stormed off the pitch taking the rest of the team with him who then refused to return to play the 30 minutes of extra time until convinced to do so by the referee and two policemen. No further goals were scored.

There have been plenty of fireworks on 5 November including a 1960 6-0 thrashing of Arsenal (Malcom, Woosnam, Dunmore (3), Dick) and a 1966 drubbing of Fulham (Peters 2, Hurst 4). Hurst went on to score 29 league goals that season and 41 in all competitions; oh for a goal scoring striker. The same day in 1975 witnessed a 3-1 ECWC success at home to Araraet Erevan (Taylor, Paddon, Keith Robson) as we made our way towards a final appearance.

The day after Bonfire Night was often spent scouring the neighbourhood for old fireworks but in 1976 we trooped off to see a bottom of the table clash between West Ham and Tottenham. The Hammers were rock bottom with just 1 win and 2 draws from 12 matches played while Tottenham had fared little better and were just 3 places better off. In a game where any pretence of defence was abandoned early on the Hammers raced into a 5-1 lead (Bonds, Curbishley, Brooking, Jennings, Pop Robson) before Hoddle and Keith Osgood threatened a late comeback. However, West Ham held on to run out 5-3 victors and end a sequence of 5 consecutive defeats. Much to our delight at the time Spurs were relegated at the end of the 1976/77 season although the euphoria was short lived as the following campaign saw our own relegation and them make an immediate return. Day, Bonds, Lampard, Curbishley, Lock, Taylor, Devonshire, Pike, Jennings, Brooking, Pop Robson.

Notable Birthdays this week:

3 November Ian Wright (53)
4 November Enner Valencia (27)
7 November Rio Ferdinand (38)
7 November Arthur Masuaku (23)

Everton 2:0 West Ham

Twenty questions following West Ham’s disappointing defeat to Everton at Goodison Park.

Embed from Getty Images

Why do Sky Sports, in their coverage of Premier League games, only believe that one team is playing in the match? The pre-match time was devoted almost exclusively to talking about Everton. An interview with Gareth Barry, analysis of Ross Barkley, talk of Lukaku’s goalscoring, and an interview with the Everton manager, Koeman filled all the lead up to the game. West Ham were playing too! Why were we completely ignored?
Why are we unable to convert superiority into goals? For the first half of the first half we totally controlled the game, but somehow you knew that the failure to score in this period would come back to bite us.
Do the West Ham players practice shooting? And if they do, why are they unable to make a better fist of it when playing the game? Obiang, Lanzini, Payet, Antonio and Ayew all found themselves with excellent opportunities to score, but failed to hit the target, or produced shots that never even remotely tested the Everton keeper. I’ve seen better finishing in Sunday morning football.
Why does Ogbonna continue to demonstrate the Italian defender skills of holding opponents when they have corner kicks? If the incompetent officials acted on their early season promise to crack down on this, then he would have given away several penalties by now. His grappling of opponents’ shirts is so blatant I cannot understand why the officials fail to see it. He’s got away with it so far, but ….
And on the subject of officials, especially referees, why are they so incompetent? There were shocking examples of the referee and his assistants failing to see obvious things. A blatant corner that we should have been awarded, the wall for Payet’s first free kick counted out by the referee at just about six or seven paces from the ball, and Lukaku being offside in the build up to Everton’s second goal (you could see he was offside purely by looking at the way the grass was cut across the pitch – and it was later confirmed when replayed), were just three of many examples. And to show that this report is not completely biased, how could the referee not give Everton a penalty in the 93^rd minute? The foul by Ogbonna was so such a stone-wall penalty I just cannot see how the referee failed to award a spot kick. Why do the authorities not see the need for video replays?
Why did we fade so badly in the second half of the game? We created at least half a dozen good chances in the first half, with Payet and Lanzini prominent in the moves, but those two players, and the team as a whole, were just a shadow of themselves in the second period.
Why do players get booked for fairly innocuous hand ball when so many bad tackles and flailing arms go unpunished? Reid’s completely unnecessary handball means that he misses our next game at home to Stoke.
Will Bilic finally give Oxford the opportunity to demonstrate his obvious potential as a replacement for Reid in the Stoke game? I doubt it, as almost certainly Collins will come into the team.
Why does Adrian when making saves not push the ball away for a corner but keep it in play? This was a bad error which contributed hugely to Lukaku’s goal. He did the same against Crystal Palace last season.
Why was Reid’s clearance so poor just before the first Everton goal? And why was he so slow to react when Adrian parried the ball?
Why do we always have to let Lukaku score his customary goal against us?
Why was the impressive Fernandes taken off to be replaced by the totally ineffectual Zaza?
Why was Zaza brought to the club?
Why does Payet have to take every free kick in shooting range? There was a free kick awarded in a position ideal for a left footer, and it may be appropriate to let Cresswell have a go sometimes. I realise that Payet has been very successful when taking free kicks, but why every single one?
Why did we give the ball away so cheaply on so many occasions? Noble and Payet were particularly guilty in this respect, setting up dangerous Everton counter attacks.
Why does Kouyate only appear to be a shadow of the player we have seen previously?
Why have we now failed to keep a clean sheet against Everton in 17 consecutive Premier League games?
Why have we allowed Everton to have a better record against us than against any other teams they have ever played in the Premier League?
Why have we already lost four away league games this season, before the end of October? We only lost five in the whole of last season.
Will we ever learn? On the evidence of today, it doesn’t appear so!

Matchday: Toffee and Hammer

Three in a row for the Hammers or a return to Merseyside misery?

Everton West Ham Last season’s victory at Everton put the seal on a season long respite from the traditional northwest travel sickness with a once in a lifetime haul of three wins and a draw from the away-day excursions to Liverpool and Manchester. Defeat by Manchester City means that it is a feat that cannot be matched this time around but today is an opportunity to see if the cure was purely temporary.

West Ham go into the game looking for a third league win on the bounce (four in all competitions) while Everton after a bright start to the season under Ronald Koeman have not won any of their last 5 outings. Victory at Goodison last March was the last time West Ham won three league games in a row and so the omens are good but remember they usually lure us with hope and leave us disappointed.

“So he is always scoring against us, unfortunately, so that’s also going to be interesting. It will be a great game. They need points. We need points.”

– Slaven Bilic on Lukaku

The game last season was the classic game of two halves (or more accurately a game of the first 78 minutes and the final 12). For most of the match we were poor against an Everton side who were reduced to 10 men just after the half hour until some strange Martinez substitutions handed the initiative to the Hammers with three late goals and an unlikely 3-2 victory. Re-live the entertainment below and for the ‘twitchers’ among you there is a rare sighting of Carroll and Sakho on the pitch at the same time.

Head to Head

Everton have dominated the encounters between the two clubs and until last March had been unbeaten against West Ham in 15 matches. If history is anything to go by a visit to Goodison usually ends in a heavy defeat; Everton having averaged 2 goals per game on their own turf..

	P	W	D	L	F	A	Sequence
Home	63	23	17	23	95	92	DLDLLD
Away	61	11	13	37	50	122	WDLLLD
	124	34	30	60	145	214

Team News

No new injury concerns for West Ham and no return to fitness from any long term treatment room residents as yet. It would be a major surprise if the team that started against Chelsea was not the same one that starts today but with Adrian back between the sticks. It would mean that the striker conundrum remains unresolved but allows room for the many suddenly in-form midfield players which now also appears much better balanced as a unit. We will most probably see a further 20 minute run-out for Andre Ayew as he continues his return to full match fitness. The slight concern of three at the back is against fast breaking teams who are strong on the flanks. Definitely something to watch out for against Everton although Koeman is far more cautious than his predecessor and has focused on improving his team’s defensive capabilities with some, although not total, initial success.

“Overall I’m happy with the defensive organisation but I’m not happy with the offensive aspect. We need to improve and be more clinical and have more productivity. That’s what we need to change.”

– Ronald Koeman

Everton are without dirty James McCarthy and Leighton Baines is apparently doubtful. We can hope that Lukaku stubs his toe or slips over in the shower this morning otherwise we will need to score at least twice to claim all three points.

As ever I am hoping for a win but would settle for a point in a game where I believe both teams will score.

The Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Anthony Taylor from just down the road in Greater Manchester. He was also in charge of this fixture last season where he sent off Kevin Mirallas for two bookable offences; another positive and enticing omen. Taylor was also holding the cards in our season opener at Chelsea in August when he failed to wave one in the direction of eventual match-winner Diego Costa following his assault on Adrian.

Everton Preview

Can We Halt Lukaku’s Amazing Goalscoring Run Against Us?

Everton Programme We go into this game on the back of three consecutive victories, and if we manage at least a point then we will have remained unbeaten in five games, which cover the whole of the month of October. After a disastrous beginning to the season then this is exactly what we needed. With a home game next week against Stoke City, we have the opportunity to put ourselves in a reasonable position in the league before the next international break. When we entered the last break, after seven league games, we had amassed just four points including only one victory.

We needed that break to re-charge, re-think, and work out how we could improve our performances to ensure that we did not become involved in the relegation dogfight. Of course we are not yet in a comfortable league position, and need to consolidate the recent improvement before the run of difficult games that will follow immediately after the next fortnight recess from league football. The four games that come after the interval include visits to Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool with just one solitary home game against Arsenal.

It is therefore vital to get something from the next two games, and then hope to spring a surprise or two in the tough fixtures. We then have relatively easier games at home to Burnley and Hull, and away at Swansea and Leicester. At that point we will have reached the end of 2016, and be exactly half way through the season.

At the equivalent stage last season we had 29 points. To reach a similar total in this campaign would require 19 points in the next ten games, of which just four are at home and six away, including the Everton game. That could be achieved with six wins, a draw, and three defeats, or alternatively five wins, four draws and just one reverse. Despite our recent improvement this scenario seems very unlikely, and if we can get anywhere close to our halfway points total last term then we will have done well.

Of course we improved still further in the second half of last season, with 33 points in the final 19 games to finish on 62 in seventh place. We will be looking for a similar upturn this time around.

Everton, on the other hand, come into this fixture on a run of five games without a win. Their early season sparkling form seems to have disappeared, although they still sit in sixth place in the table. Their new manager, Ronald Koeman appears to have halted their relatively poor defensive record under Martinez, especially at home, and the eight goals that they have conceded to date in all league games is the second best record in the division so far. Last season they conceded 30 goals in their 19 home games, a total only exceeded by Aston Villa and Bournemouth. This, of course, includes the three late goals that we put into their net in a dramatic comeback in March.

Their top scorer this term with six goals is, unsurprisingly, Lukaku, and he has netted eight times in eight games against us. He always seems to score against us and is a good bet to be the first goalscorer in the game. In fact he is odds-on with bookmakers to score against us at any time in the game, and given his previous record we cannot be surprised by that. We also need to beware of Cleverley, who, despite being a midfielder who does not have a particularly great goalscoring record (around 25 goals in approaching 200 senior games in his career), has scored against us for three different teams (for Wigan, Villa, and Manchester United).

If we can keep Lukaku quiet, and at the same time play with the same level of intensity and desire that we showed against Chelsea, then I am hopeful that we will get something from the game. A win would be great, but my prediction is for Lukaku to open the scoring, and then for Antonio to end his recent goalscoring drought, and the game to finish 1-1. Antonio hasn’t scored since netting five times in our opening four league games, which is surprising considering our improved performances of late. But that’s the way it goes sometimes, and I’m sure his goalless run will end soon.

I hope that Bilic retains the same team that played in midweek, and I also hope that my forecast for the result will be wrong, and that perhaps Ayew will come off the bench to score a late winner in a 2-1 victory. Perhaps the Everton players will get nervous thinking about last season, and remember our storming finish to win the game.

What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 15

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Fancy A Bet

Last week we had some fun bets on West Ham v Sunderland. They all lost apart from the key one, where Winston Reid’s late strike saved our bacon, and gave us a healthy 38 points return bringing our balance up to 108.1.

The bet was 22 points on West Ham to beat Sunderland @8/11 (38).

This week we’ll have a look at our game at Everton. The best odds I found were on Betfair where we were quoted at 3.8/1 to win, and 2.95/1 to draw. Bearing in mind that in the 134 times we have played Everton, they have won 67, and the other 67 have been won by us or drawn, then statistically you might expect that we have a 50/50 chance of at least getting a draw out of the game.

Of course the fact that the game is at Goodison Park would change that, but then again they may have nightmares about last season. They were beating us 2-0 when they were awarded a penalty. Lukaku missed and we went on to gain a very unlikely 3-2 victory. You could have named your own odds on a West Ham win when Lukaku was stepping up to take the spot kick.

Worryingly, Everton haven’t beaten a London team in their last ten attempts – statistics like those can be broken at any time, and West Ham have often been the fall guys when a bad run such as that is broken.

I really fancy the draw, so we’ll stake:

3 points on a draw @2.95/1 (9.85)
2 points on a win @3.8/1 (8.6)
1 point on a 1-1 draw @13/2 (7.5)
1 point on Lukaku 1^st goal and a 1-1 draw @22/1 (23)
1.1 points on a draw double in our game and Southampton v Chelsea @13.4/1 (14.4)

Total stake 8.1 points, reducing our balance to 100 (which is where we started!)

If we win or draw the game then we’ll be up on the day. But if Lukaku scores the first goal, the game ends 1-1, and the Southampton v Chelsea game is drawn, then our return will be 54.75 points.

What are the chances?