I Wouldn’t Bet On It 15

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Fancy A Bet

Last week we had some fun bets on West Ham v Sunderland. They all lost apart from the key one, where Winston Reid’s late strike saved our bacon, and gave us a healthy 38 points return bringing our balance up to 108.1.

The bet was 22 points on West Ham to beat Sunderland @8/11 (38).

This week we’ll have a look at our game at Everton. The best odds I found were on Betfair where we were quoted at 3.8/1 to win, and 2.95/1 to draw. Bearing in mind that in the 134 times we have played Everton, they have won 67, and the other 67 have been won by us or drawn, then statistically you might expect that we have a 50/50 chance of at least getting a draw out of the game.

Of course the fact that the game is at Goodison Park would change that, but then again they may have nightmares about last season. They were beating us 2-0 when they were awarded a penalty. Lukaku missed and we went on to gain a very unlikely 3-2 victory. You could have named your own odds on a West Ham win when Lukaku was stepping up to take the spot kick.

Worryingly, Everton haven’t beaten a London team in their last ten attempts – statistics like those can be broken at any time, and West Ham have often been the fall guys when a bad run such as that is broken.

I really fancy the draw, so we’ll stake:

3 points on a draw @2.95/1 (9.85)
2 points on a win @3.8/1 (8.6)
1 point on a 1-1 draw @13/2 (7.5)
1 point on Lukaku 1st goal and a 1-1 draw @22/1 (23)
1.1 points on a draw double in our game and Southampton v Chelsea @13.4/1 (14.4)

Total stake 8.1 points, reducing our balance to 100 (which is where we started!)

If we win or draw the game then we’ll be up on the day. But if Lukaku scores the first goal, the game ends 1-1, and the Southampton v Chelsea game is drawn, then our return will be 54.75 points.

What are the chances?