Category: Preview

The staccato Premier League season resumes today with a short burst of winnable fixtures for West Ham that commences with today’s visit to face Burnley at Turf Moor. The rub of the green in these games could see the Hammers scramble into the top half of the league (or first page of Teletext as it used to be known). That we tend to divide games into winnable and write-offs is a sad indictment on the predictability of the league but nonetheless they are the games where points are required if a messy relegation scrap is to be avoided.

Burnley are the surprise team of the season so far occupying sixth place in the table under the leadership of flavour of the month manager, Sean Dyche. In recent weeks, it has been claimed that Dyche’s name has been added to the list waiting for Slaven Bilic to be relieved of his London Stadium duties as well as being touted as an unlikely successor to Arsene Wenger at The Emirates; albeit only by Ian Wright. The suspicion though is that, as well as Dyche has done at Burnley, he is a graduate of the Allardyce/ Pulis school of difficult to beat and ugly wins rather an exponent of the expansive football yearned for by bigger clubs. Perhaps one day he will get the chance to prove his mettle at the top table.

The claret and blue derby is probably not the most eagerly anticipated in most people’s football calendar and a game between two of the division’s most direct sides is unlikely to dominate today’s Match of The Day coverage or engage the average neutral.

Turf Moor is one of the few remaining old school stadiums having been Burnley’s home since way back in 1883. It has previously also served as both a cricket ground and a horse race track which hopefully does not give our own owners any fresh ideas.

Head to Head

West Ham have won thirty-six and lost thirty-one of their previous eighty-four encounters with Burnley. In history the game has largely gone in favour of home advantage whereas, in more recent times, the Hammers have generally been in control – winning nine of the last twelve (home and away) and, more impressively, having secured seven wins out of the last twelve encounters in the north-west.

West Ham’s first win at Turf Moor was at the seventeenth attempt in the opening weeks of the 1959/ 60 season, a season in which Burnley went on to win the second of their two First Division titles. An amusing ‘typical West Ham‘ event occurred in November that season when, having just beaten current champions Wolves to retain top spot in the table, they then travelled away to face Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough only to lose 7-0. “They gave us a jolly good whacking” was the honest opinion of West Ham manager Ted Fenton.

Team News

Most unusually West Ham are reporting an almost fully fit squad with only James Collins unavailable for selection. Perhaps it is a coincidence or simply good fortune but sick bay occupancy has reduced remarkably since the appointment of Gary Lewin as chief medic during the summer.

It is rare for Bilic to bring a player returning from injury straight back into starting eleven contention; a state of affairs that prepares us for the (bad) news that Mark Noble will be preferred to the more effective alternative of Pedro Obiang in the centre of midfield.

In fact, we shouldn’t expect too many changes from the game against Swansea given that we ended up victorious, no matter how unconvincingly. I would imagine that Manuel Lanzini will start in a five man midfield and that we will play just one up front, where Diafra Sakho or Javier Hernandez would be the best option – so expect Andy Carroll to get the nod.  I don’t see Slav pulling any other selection surprises opening the door for Declan Rice to reprise last season’s 93rd minute substitute role.

So confident is the manager as to the squad’s level fitness and preparation for today’s game that he gave the players extra time off during the international break.  I wish this was a confidence shared!

Burnley are without several long term injuries including keeper Heaton, summer signing Walters and Marney.  It will be between Wood and Vokes as to who takes their own lone striker role.

Man In The Middle

Today’s referee is Stuart Atwell from the West Midlands. I read elsewhere that Atwell had not previously taken charge of a West Ham game but that is not the case; having officiated in Hammer Premier League away wins against Wigan (2009) and Blackpool (2011). He was subsequently demoted from the Elite referees list only to return several seasons later. He now spends time between the Championship and Premier League but is not yet trusted to handle top six games.

The 1-0 win at Wigan in 2010 was notable for Carlton Cole’s finest ever goal when he rounded off a fine Parker, Noble, Di Michele move with a ‘sumptuous’ curling finish from the edge of the area; Cole was later sent off for a second bookable offence. The game will also be remembered as when Jack Collison picked up the knee injury that would ultimately cause an early end to his career.

Predictions

Merson is going for a 1-0 Burnley while Lawro is firmly on the fence at 1-1. It is difficult to see this game as a classic. Both sides are way down the rankings for successful passes in the final third which is consistent with their direct approaches. Burnley have allowed their opponents to take way more shots than any other team in the league this season which could be encouraging if the kit-man has packed our shooting boots. West Ham have scored a meagre thirty six goals so far during 2017 – which is exactly the same number as Harry Kane!

While West Ham have the better squad on paper the evidence suggests that Burnley have superior organisation and team spirit. I can only see this as a low scoring game settled by a mistake, set piece goal, wonder strike or deflection. Finger crossed that it goes our way.

When Sean Dyche saw the opening games produced by the Fixtures Computer in June I wonder how many points that he thought Burnley would accrue in the first seven matches, four of them away from home? He would probably have bitten your hand off to achieve an average of one point a game at this stage. The fact that they lie sixth in the table with twelve points is one of the stories of the Premier League season so far.

Their four away games have all been against teams that finished in the top 7 last season. An opening day 3-2 win at Chelsea was followed by 1-1 draws at Tottenham and Liverpool, and then a 1-0 victory at Goodison Park. Incredibly, that is eight points from four of the toughest away games (on paper) that they would expect to face in a season. They have already exceeded their points tally on their travels for the whole of last season, when they only picked up seven points from their nineteen games with one win (at Palace), and draws at Hull, Manchester United, Middlesbrough, and Sunderland, three of the four relegated sides.

Their home form, for which they were renowned last season when winning more than half of their games, has not been as successful. They lost their first home fixture 1-0 to West Brom, before beating Palace (as everyone has done!) 1-0, and then they had a goalless draw against Huddersfield. So after three home games they have picked up four points, with just one goal scored and one conceded.

But an overall record of three wins and three draws from their seven matches played, placing them sixth in the table, is way beyond the expectations of even the most optimistic of Burnley fans. Our record matches them in just one respect. We, too, have scored seven league goals so far this season. The difference is that whereas Burnley have conceded just four goals, we managed that in the very first game, and in total we have let in thirteen!

All of Burnley’s seven goals have been scored by players who have been on international duty in the break, and either faced intense games or a lot of travelling. Sam Vokes (2) was on duty for Wales in their elimination from the World Cup by Ireland who had Jeff Hendrick (1) and Stephen Ward (1) in the side. Scott Arfield (1) turned out for Canada against El Salvador on Sunday, and Chris Wood (2) scored for New Zealand against Japan. Wood, a big money signing from Leeds as the summer transfer window was drawing to a close, is the second highest goalscorer in New Zealand history with 24 goals in 54 games, despite being only 25 years old. Let’s hope that Winston Reid can keep his fellow countryman quiet.

Our last visit to Turf Moor was on the final day of last season when, with a side depleted by injuries (as usual), we came from behind to clinch a 2-1 win. Vokes scored the Burnley goal midway through the first half, but we equalised shortly afterwards with a fine team goal where several players were involved in the move before Feghouli scored. This was a most unusual West Ham goal because it started from a quickly-taken free kick near the halfway line. On so many occasions free kicks in a similar position end up back with our keeper. Ayew headed the winner from close range after the ball came back off the bar from a Fernandes shot.

Our overall historical record against Burnley is a positive one, with 36 wins, 17 draws, and 31 defeats in all 84 competitive matches. This hasn’t always been the case, however, as our opponents were once a formidable club, winning the league twice, which is two times more than we have. Not many people will know that Burnley once reached the quarter-final of the European Cup, which was the forerunner of the Champions League.

But in recent years we have been by far the stronger in head to head games against them, winning 14 of the last 20 games. We have only lost once at Turf Moor in almost 40 years and that was in 2010, when we were on the receiving end of a 2-1 scoreline, with our goal being scored by Ilan (remember him?). To demonstrate how the make-up of a football team can change in less than eight years I will remind readers of the West Ham line-up that day.

Green
Faubert, Upson, Tompkins, Spector,
Behrami, Noble, Parker, Collison,
C.Cole, McCarthy.
Subs. who came on: Mido, Stanislas, and Ilan
Manager: Zola

Ilan and McCarthy each played eleven league games in their time with us. Ilan scored four goals whilst McCarthy failed to find the net. Mido played nine times and he, too, failed to score a goal.

Apparently it has been reported that we have an entirely fit squad for the manager to choose from, with the exceptions of Collins and Quina. I have given up trying to read the manager’s mind, and have absolutely no idea what the starting line-up will be, and will not even attempt to hazard a guess.

When you consider that an in-form team lying sixth in the league are playing at home to the side in fifteenth place, then the odds being offered on the game don’t really reflect that. Burnley are at around 13/8 to win, we are 15/8 to take all three points, and the draw is not much over 2/1. The most likely score according to the bookmakers is 1-1, offered at about 5/1. I can see their reasoning as both Burnley and ourselves are averaging scoring exactly one goal a game this season. Nothing to get really excited about. I would have hoped for more generous odds on a West Ham victory considering our poor start to the season.

I’m going to get out my trusty optimistic hat and bet on us to win the game. I’ll also have a fun bet on West Ham to win the game 3-1 at odds of 22/1. I might even try an additional one where the game is goalless at half-time, but we run out 3-1 winners at the end, with odds of 200/1 on that most unlikely outcome. A half-time scoreline of 1-1, with us winning the game 3-1 at the end is 90/1. You can bet on hundreds of different markets on every game of football these days, but in reality trying to predict the outcome of games, and correct scores / goalscorers is a minefield.

As for me, as usual I’ll be attending both days of the Dubai Future Champions horse racing meeting at Newmarket on Friday and Saturday, which includes my favourite race the Cesarewitch, which starts in Cambridgeshire and ends in Suffolk, with 34 runners tackling the two and a quarter miles course. The race itself is as difficult to predict as guessing the line-up that our manager will select. My ante-post selections are Withhold, Time To Study and Lagostovegas, although I’ll probably choose another for my bet on the day. But I’ll be keeping one eye on the football from Turf Moor, and hoping for a victory that will take us into a more comfortable mid-table position in the league.

It was the visit of Swansea at the tail end of the 2015/16 season that raised the first alarm bells as to the vulnerabilities of Slaven Bilic’s side; notably showing up the shortcomings of players being played out of position as right back Michail Antonio was exposed for two of the goals in a 4-1 home defeat that finally ended any lingering Champion’s League aspirations that we may have held.  The ‘blip’ was soon forgiven and forgotten as a consequence of the emotional last game at the Boleyn victory over Manchester United just a few days later; but the Swansea performance has set the tone for much of what has come since.

West Ham come into the game having lost four out of six Premier League games from a relatively benign set of fixtures and now embark on a run of so-called ‘winnable’ games (including today’s) in an attempt to demonstrate there might be something to the season beyond a desperate survival battle.  A great deal of last year was wasted wishing that the season would soon be over and there is a huge danger of this happening again.  Yet again manager Slaven Bilic is under immense pressure and his continued week to week employment renewal is likely to remain a defining feature for much of the campaign.

At the time of Swansea’s victory in May 2016 their manager was Francesco Guidolin who, having steered the Swans to safety, was out of the door the following October following a terrible start to the season.  His replacement, Bob Bradley, had only been in post for eighty-five days when a 4-1 home defeat by the Hammers led to his dismissal.  Bradley was subsequently replaced by current boss Paul Clement who worked wonders to stave off what looked like certain relegation.  Swansea’s recent seasons have been characterised by poor starts and storming finishes which makes their current position look like over-achievement, even if they are only a point better off than West Ham.

Head to Head

West Ham have won twenty-eight and lost eighteen of the previous sixty-one meetings between the two clubs.  The last twelve meetings have seen five West Ham wins and three Swansea victories.

In the thirty-one of the matches played in London, the Hammers have won twenty-two, lost only twice, never failed to score and have averaged over three goals a game.  The victory in 2015/16 was Swansea’s only win in their last twelve visits during which time they have left empty handed on nine occasions.

Team News

It is reported that both Manuel Lanzini and Michail Antonio are available for selection while James Collins, Pedro Obiang and Edmilson Fernandes are unavailable.  The barnstorming finish that put an undeserved gloss on last week’s defeat at the hands of Tottenham might lead our manager to conclude that he ‘can’t change a losing team’.   We will see!

I probably have more chance of picking the first three (in order) at tomorrow’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe than successfully predicting how Slaven will choose to start the game this afternoon.  On paper it remains a strong looking squad but with all the ingredients selected independently of any particular recipe it is impossible to know what will be served up.

Personally, I would like to see Hernandez back in a central position with Lanzini in a more advanced role just behind him.  Swansea have yet to concede on the road this season and need to be unlocked rather than bombarded.  More likely though we will resort to the trademark direct style built around Andy Carroll’s head.  There were probably times when such a tactic was effective (the 1970’s for instance) but just like typewriters, floppy disks and VHS tapes the rest of the world has moved on.

Swansea have no significant injury concerns and are likely to be very compact defensively.  How adventurous they are will be interesting as a front three of Wilfred Bony, Tammy Abrahams and the talented one from the Ayew family definitely have the ability to upset West Ham’s suspect defence.

Man in the Middle

Once again we have a referee, Roger East from Wiltshire, who rarely gets run out at a top Premier League game.  East was at the London Stadium twice last season for the defeat by Leicester and the dull goal-less draw with Everton.

Predictions

Both TV pundits, Lawro and Paul Merson, have today’s game as a 2-0 home win; each feeling that Swansea lack the form or confidence to harm the Hammers.  I wish I was as confident as there is every chance, based on their away performances so far this season, that the visitors have enough to frustrate West Ham.  The shape of the game will depend on whether Swansea will show any attacking threat or belief; they have the potential but maybe not the appetite.

On previous occasions when Bilic has been desperate for a result to save his job the team has come through for him and this will probably be no exception.  This should not be the first West Ham to fail to score at home against Swansea even if a glut of goals in unlikely.  I will keep everything crossed for a narrow victory.

It’s a weird feeling isn’t it? A home league game that kicks off at 3pm on a Saturday. The first one of the season, so make the most of it if you are a fan of the traditional kick-off time, as it won’t be happening again until at least 9 December. The second international break of the season is upon us, and begins after the Swansea game. I wonder if it will be a swansong for our beleaguered manager who seems to be under more pressure than ever if media reports are to be believed.

I wondered about the derivation of the word swansong. Legend has it that swans are mute throughout their lives, but they sing beautifully and mournfully before they die. Let us hope that the team performs beautifully for the manager on Saturday, and that we pick up the much needed three points that would take us out of the relegation zone.

We only have one home game in the month of October (Friday 20 October 8pm v Brighton), and by the end of the month 10 league games will have been played (four at home and six away). November is a more balanced month with two home games (Saturday 4 November v Liverpool 5.30pm kick-off, and Leicester (Friday 24 November 8pm), and two away. Of course the third international break takes place in that month to continue the stop-start to the Premier League season that we endure every year now.

Seven games are scheduled for December, with just three at home and four away. The next potential Saturday 3pm kick doesn’t happen until the 9^th when Chelsea are our visitors, but once the Sky / BT schedules are announced that may of course change. By the time we sit down for our Christmas lunch we will be exactly half way into the season, having played 19 games, 9 at home and 10 away, but visits to Bournemouth on Boxing Day, and the return fixture at Tottenham four days later, mean that we will once again be in the position we were in just three games into the season, that is having played three more games away from home than at the London Stadium!

We are forever behind, and the effect of the World Athletics Championships being held at our stadium will be a significant one if we are still lingering in the lower reaches of the table by then. The home / away balance doesn’t even itself out until the end of March, at which time we will have played 16 games at home and the same number away, with just six games left in the season at that time.

If you look back on the history of Swansea visits to West Ham, we have an overwhelming superiority. But I’m not sure that statistics such as these are a good thing! In almost 30 home games against them we have only lost on two occasions. The first of these was in 1956 when we were both in the second tier, but that was too long ago for even me to remember.

The second I can recall very clearly though. It was of course the penultimate game at Upton Park and the last to be played on a Saturday. We went with high expectations as a record-breaking season was coming towards a close and were thrashed 4-1, with a certain Andre Ayew scoring one of the Swansea goals. Of course this massive disappointment was soon forgotten in the following week when we met Manchester United in that never-to-be-forgotten final game at the old ground.

Last season we beat them in April with that terrific strike along the ground from Kouyate from outside the box which was the only goal of the game. That left Swansea in big trouble in the bottom three with just half a dozen games of the season to go, but they escaped the drop with a fine finishing run.

This season, their seventh consecutive one in the top flight, they (like ourselves) have not started as well as they would have hoped. They have lost all of their three home games at the Liberty Stadium, 4-0 to Manchester United, 1-0 to Newcastle, and 2-1 to Watford. But we need to be wary, as their form on the road has been excellent. A goalless draw at Southampton to begin the season, a 2-0 win at Palace, and then another goalless game at Tottenham has given them five points, all away from home. This puts them in 15^th place, just one point above ourselves. It is a bit early I know, but we could perhaps call this a “six-pointer” this weekend, as well as an extremely important (must win?) game for our manager.

I rarely manage to accurately predict our starting line-up, as the manager always seems to throw in a surprise or two that I wasn’t expecting. But this time I am confident that he will start with the following eleven:

Hart, Fonte, Reid, Ogbonna, Zabaleta, Noble, Kouyate, Cresswell, Ayew, Arnautavic, Chicarito.

If the manager subscribes to the “horses for courses” theory then he will be tempted to include Carroll in view of his fine goalscoring record against today’s opponents. Apparently Lanzini is now fit, but I expect him to start on the bench, although I would personally include him from the start in place of Ayew. But I reckon Ayew will get the nod, particularly as the game is against his former employers. Depending on how the game is going I would expect important contributions as substitutes from Lanzini, Carroll, Masuaku, or Rice. I don’t think anyone else will get a look in.

The bookies make us favourites to win the game and we are slightly odds-on to do so. Swansea are around 3/1 plus, and the draw is around 5/2. Given Swansea’s away form, especially the fact that they have yet to concede a goal on their travels, the game is likely to be a tight one. Despite the tension surrounding the manager I hope that we can win a close game, possibly by the odd goal, just as we did about six months ago. A repeat of that scoreline, with the same goalscorer, is on offer at around 33/1.  

After a run of three games that has seen two wins and three clean sheets West Ham get the opportunity to convince whether it is a corner turned or simply a competent return from a benign set of fixtures.  There certainly seems to be a greater air of confidence around the club (and especially in the manager’s demeanour) and usually there is little needed in terms of additional motivation to prepare the team in readiness for today’s visitors.  That a London derby continues to arouse such passions on the pitch in an era where few players have any local connections is evidence that football has not totally lost its soul.  More of a concern for Hammer’s supporters is why the team being  ‘up for it’ is not something we can experience week in and week out!

“They have patterns, good players and, for me, that makes them one of the best teams probably the most attractive one.”

– Slaven Bilic

It is an unwholesome thought but Tottenham have most probably been the best footballing side in the Premier League over the past two seasons and they are very fortunate to have (for now) one of the best managers in the business.  In some ways it makes their ultimate failure to win the league and our part in that downfall all the more amusing.    Tottenham like to consider themselves as part of the ‘Big 6’ but in truth, from a financial viewpoint, they are very much in the second division of that six, along with Arsenal and Liverpool.  Astute transfer dealings and a progressive manager have enabled them to play above themselves but like West Ham it will take more than a larger stadium to mount a sustained challenge at the top table.  Once Pochettino moves on to greater things and the likes of Kane, Eriksen and Alli go searching for larger pay packets then they will surely bump back down to their customary status of flattering to deceive.

Head to Head

This will be the 148^th meeting between the two sides (excluding Southern League and war-time cups).  West Ham have won forty-nine and lost sixty-two of those previous games but have won thirty-three (lost twenty-three) of the home games between the two clubs.  The last twelve matches (home and away) show five wins apiece while the last twelve in East London gives the Hammers an advantage of six wins to Tottenham’s five.   The Hammers are looking for their third consecutive home win against the north Londoners

Team News

James Collins and Manuel Lanzini are definitely out while Pedro Obiang and Edmilson Fernandes are doubtful.  Tottenham are without Rose, Wanyama and long term casualty Lamela.

There were some bright performances from several young players, together with a much more fluid look to the side, in midweek but I expect it will be back to the old guard for today’s game.

The way that Tottenham play will come as no surprise to anyone who has watched them under Pochettino over the past few seasons.  Pressing all over the pitch, full-backs getting forward quickly to provide width with the movement and probing from Eriksen and Alli creating space and chances for a clinical Kane.  It will be interesting to see what cunning plan is employed by our coaching team to counter these threats.  The greatest concern, as ever, is the lack of pace in defence and midfield; both to keep things tight defensively and to launch rapid counter-attacks.

West Ham continue to miss Lanzini and I hope that Bilic utilises Marko Arnautovic in a more central creative role.  Arnautovic and Michail Antonio can provide that much needed outlet for the defence which is sure to come under some intense pressure.  Otherwise the hopeful punt up-field is unlikely to trouble the visitor’s back-line.

“For all the excitement and desire they show to beat us, we must show the same. We must show the same desire, excitement and aggressivity,”

– Mauricio Pochettino

Bilic has indicated that he will continue his controversial fox-outside-the-box experiment which I suppose means that Andy Carroll will once again lead the line.  Maybe Carroll is the best at what he does; it’s just that there are not many others bothering to do it in the modern game.  Even though Spurs have conceded more all-time Premier League goals than any other club their defence is a little more experienced these days to be suckered by Route One tactics.

The Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Michael Oliver from Northumberland.  At just thirty-two years old Oliver is still young enough for a place in the Hammer’s defence.  He was last seen at the London Stadium in the 2-2 draw with West Brom last season and before that in the 5-0 FA Cup drubbing by Manchester City.

Predictions

Lawro has this down as a 1-1 score draw while Paul Merson is predicting a 1-3 Tottenham win.  West Ham have surprised me in both the past two seasons and will do well to make it three wins on the trot this afternoon.  There will not be so much pressure on the visitors this time around with the fixture taking place early in the season and so West Ham will need to play with a high intensity from the off.  My fear is that we will be overly cautious and surrender too much possession as a result.  An early goal for Tottenham has the potential to spark the type of rout witnessed against Arsenal and Manchester City last season.

I would be very happy with a point but believe it will ultimately be a fruitless afternoon.  What we should be looking for is a committed and spirited performance or the pressure may well return on our beleaguered manager.

The draw for the Fourth Round of the Carabao Cup has paired us with our North London neighbours who are visiting us this weekend. The away tie, to be played in the last week of October, whilst not the kindest, guarantees at least two trips to Wembley this season. And when we go there for the Carabao Cup final, in addition to the FA Cup semi-final and final, that will make five trips to the iconic North-West London venue in one season. OK, so it is a long shot I’ll agree. I wonder what odds the bookies would give for us making the five visits to Wembley in one season? But we have to dream, don’t we?

The 12.30 kick-off is yet another “non-standard” time for a game of football, just as last season when we played Tottenham at 8.00 pm on a Friday night on May 5. We went into that game as vast underdogs. How much would we give for a repeat of the performance and result that we achieved just 141 days ago?

We moved up into 17^th place in the table, and just outside the bottom three, when Everton were hammered by Manchester United last week. Tottenham, despite their (typical?) slow start to the season still manage to occupy fifth place, albeit five points adrift of the two Manchester clubs just five games into the season.

Much has been written about their inability to adapt to playing their home games at Wembley, but they have gone some way to rectify this with a convincing win (3-1) against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League last week, and scraping home 1-0 against Barnsley in the Carabao Cup this week. But in the league their results have been disappointing to say the least, with a home defeat (2-1) to Chelsea, and draws (1-1) with Burnley, and (0-0) v Swansea.

On the other hand, their away form has been excellent and has given them their two wins in the league with victories at Newcastle (2-0) on the opening weekend, and at Everton (3-0). So they come here with a 100% away record which we will be hoping to end. The bookies don’t give us much chance of doing so, and we are quoted at around 5/1 to win the game, with Tottenham around 4/6, and a draw at 3/1. But in the equivalent fixture last May we were even longer odds at 13/2 to win, with the draw at around 4/1, and a Tottenham victory was even shorter than it is this time. I took a punt on us winning the game then, and I’ll be doing the same this time.

The convincing win over Bolton with mostly fringe players was good for confidence, and a third clean sheet in a row. Bolton were poor, but the performances of the players should have given the manager some food for thought when he is selecting the team to face Tottenham. However, despite that I wouldn’t expect to see many changes from the team that played at West Brom last weekend.

Of course, Collins is out and will need to be replaced, but how the manager does this is the £64 million dollar question. Will we revert to a back four of Zabaleta, Fonte, Reid and Cresswell? Or if he wants to continue with three at the back, could Zabaleta be one of the three, or will he want Ogbonna to partner Reid and Fonte? Or might he even be bold and include Rice in his favoured position?

Apparently Obiang has a slight injury and is likely to miss the game, so he will need to replaced too if he doesn’t make it. Perhaps there will be a return for Noble in this position? That would certainly increase the traffic on social media. Or Fernandes even? After his performance in midweek, I also believe that Bilic may want to bring Arnautavic into the starting team to give us much-needed creativity, although many would argue that it is difficult to do this without weakening the team from a defensive viewpoint. Some media outlets suggest that he may come in at the expense of Chicarito, but personally I’d like to see them both in the team. We cannot go into games (even ones against top sides like Tottenham) without the means to create chances and score goals. Somehow the manager has to find a balance between defence and attack but this is what he is paid for. The best teams always defend in numbers without the ball, and attack in numbers when in possession, and we have to find the right personnel and strategy to achieve this.

We will find out the make-up of the team at about 11.30. We will need a performance of high intensity and total commitment to match the result from last May. A draw would be a good result but the optimist in me hopes that we might just sneak the win.

Although most strongly associated in recent memory with their Fat Sam direct bombardment incarnation, Bolton Wanderers are a club with a long and (nearly) distinguished record.  One of only three clubs to have spent more seasons in the top flight (73) than West Ham (60) without actually ever winning the title, Bolton have yet to shake off the pantomime villain tag, at least in my mind, earned while escaping relegation at the expense of the Hammers in the season of 2002/3.

Sadly for The Trotters they suffered the Curse of the Retrearting Walrus when Allardyce jumped ship in 2007 leaving the club in the hands of Oddjob Sammy Lee.  Despite several more years scrabbling for Premier League survival they were finally relegated in 2011/12 since when the club has encountered financial difficulties, an HMRC winding-up order and the ignominy of further relegation to League 1.  Current manager, Phil Parkinson, was able to steer Bolton back to the Championship in his first season in charge but they now sit rock bottom and without a league win all season.  However, wins at Crewe and at home to Sheffield Wednesday have earned them the honour of tonight’s visit to the London Stadium to face the mighty Hammers.  Since their second round victory over Wednesday, Bolton have lost all four of the league games played scoring no goals and conceding ten.

For West Ham, the EFL cup represents the most realistic chance of silverware for the trophy cabinet that hasn’t been opened for past thirty-seven years.  However, with (what has recently become) the biggest game of the season scheduled for next Saturday, manager Slaven Bilic will be anxious to deploy his resources prudently; would his tenuous position survive either a shock EFL cup exit (probably) or a home spanking by those neighbourly, north London itinerants (unlikely)?

James Collins will be unavailable, possibly for some weeks, having limped off at the weekend although Mark Noble and Edmilson Fernandes are apparently fit again for action.  According to PhysioRoom, Manuel Lanzini is now out until 14 October although it had previously been reported that he was back in full training and only lacked match fitness (since when has that been barrier to selection at West Ham?)  It would have been a huge surprise to me if Lanzini had played any part in proceedings anyway and it is fairly certain that Andy Carroll will be given another day off.  The imperative to rotate the squad and Bilic’s often baffling team selections make any further predictions impossible, although there were strong hints from last night’s U23 side that Rice, Holland, Quina and Haksabanovic could all play a part. Is it a coincidence that all of the aspiring young players are those snaffled from other academies rather than our own products?   It would be nice to see Declan Rice as part of a back three to add a much needed ball playing option but my sense is that this is unlikely to happen.

Bolton, of course, have two West Ham academy players, Reece Burke and Josh Cullen, currently on-loan at the Macron (formerly Reebok) Stadium.  Both have featured regularly in the starting eleven this season but are unavailable for EPL Cup games.  Looking at various Bolton fans forums there are mixed reviews for the performance of Cullen ranging from “good player” to “always passing sideways” but little on Burke who seems to have been deployed in a variety of roles from right back, centre back and defensive midfield.  As with any team in crisis, the message boards were littered with criticism from Trotter’s fans on a range of topics regarding: the manager’s lack of a game plan; misfiring strike-force; porous defence; backwards and sideways passing in midfield; and player’s being played out of position.  It seems that West Ham may have stumbled upon the perfect second home for their academy loanees.

The referee for tonight’s game is Simon Hooper from Wiltshire.  A league referee since 2008, Hooper has just the one previous encounter with the Hammers in a 1-0 Championship home win (Nolan) against Coventry City in January 2012.

I don’t see anything but a regulation home win tonight and with both team’s minds on more pressing league issues I take West Ham to secure a comfortable 2-0 victory.

In case you were interested the other two clubs to have played more seasons that West Ham in the top flight without ever winning it are Stoke (62) and Middlesbrough (61).

In a weekend where the neutral will need to wait until Sunday to find what looks, on paper, to be an attractive Premier League fixture we can look forward to an enticing encounter by two of the more direct sides in the ‘West’ derby at The Hawthorns.  Even the most ravenous supporter or TV commentary hype-ster would struggle to generate any level of mouthwatering anticipation for today’s unimaginative offering.

It was almost a year ago to the day that the equivalent fifth match of the season fixture, a 4-2 defeat, sounded the early alarm bells that the wheels might not be fixed as securely as first thoughton the Bilic bandwagon; that the stuttering start to his second season in charge was not solely down to the challenges of settling into a new home.  The game, best remembered for Arthur Masuaku’s handball in the area, featured a catalogue of collective and repeated defensive inadequacies that have been passed off as unexplained individual errors ever since.

“Of course, it’s early days but teams like West Brom – Stoke, Watford, Huddersfield as well – they have done what we wanted to do. But with a good run of results you can catch them up quite easily.”

– Slaven Bilic aiming high

Despite a welcome three points on Monday night the manager’s job remains under the spotlight.  The whole season may well unfold as a long running reality TV show where the suspense is whether it is this week where the manager will be finally voted off or whether he will make it through to the grand finale in May.  Any scenario that has Slaven Bilic as the manager of West Ham for the start of the 2018/19 season should probably be tested for substance abuse.

Head to Head

This is a fixture that has ‘even-steven’ written all over it.  In 105 previous meeting each team has won forty times while each has also won three of the last twelve encounters.

It is a slightly different situation for games at The Hawthorns with the Hammers having lost over half of all contests.  Surprisingly, however, the more recent record is relatively buoyant with West Ham having won five (and lost four) of the last twelve away games. History suggests at least three goals in any game.

Team News

As a rule of thumb Slaven Bilic does not change a winning side unless it is to accommodate a return for one of his inner circle of favourites.  With Manuel Lanzini and Mark Noble both unavailable through injury, any changes from the side that started on Monday seem unlikely.  Marko Arnautovic has completed his three match suspension and is in contention for a recall but bringing him in for Little Pea, which has been speculated in some quarters, would be a brave (where brave is a euphemism for foolish) decision.  The presence of Andy Carroll was enough to terrier-ise Huddersfield but the Baggies uncompromising approach to defending is unlikely to be as easily rattled.

West Brom are without Chadli (who has been as irritating as an inebriated autumn wasp in games against West Ham since his move from north London) but will, as usual, field a team of no-nonsense, take no prisoner giants.  Their lineup is likely to include Grzegorz Krychowiak who, may or may not have been, available to West Ham during the closing hours of the transfer window; sufficient justification in normal circumstances for him to play a blinder this afternoon.

“West Ham have got a lot of match winners in their squad. They might be where they are but I don’t expect them to stay there.”

– Oily Punts not making much sense

A potentially decisive factor in the game could be the form of Joe Hart in the West Ham goal.  If ever a match needed a keeper prepared to dominate his area then this is it.  On the evidence to date, Adrian in goal would fill me with marginally greater confidence.

The Man in the Middle

Premier League refereeing makeweight Paul Tierney from Lancashire is today’s man in the middle. A member of the Select Group of Referees, Tierney is only occasionally called into Premier League action and never for a high profile game.  This is his first EPL gig of the season.  His one and only encounter with West Ham was in the home draw with Everton in 2015/16 where he was very generous in his interpretation of McCarty’s scissor tackle on Dimitri Payet.

Predictions

The BBC’s Lawro is seeing a 1-1 draw while Sky’s Paull Merson is going for a 1-0 home win.  It is always fascinating, although not necessarily in a good way, when two sides with equally direct ‘styles’ come up against each other.  Like one of those old school dinosaur fights in movies such as One Million Year’s BC; but with less finesse. A passing hot air balloonist might see as much of the ball as someone in the ground.

Past performance indicates a draw and although neither side are particular threatening in attack I am plumping for a scattering of goals in a 2-2 stalemate.

I have been watching West Ham for almost sixty years now, and when I go along to a game I hope for a West Ham win, a convincing performance, an entertaining game, a clean sheet, good conversation with fellow supporters, and a trouble-free journey both to and from the game. On Monday evening I saw a West Ham win, a very good performance, albeit not totally convincing, decent entertainment, good conversation, and a trouble-free journey to the game. I won’t dwell too much on the return journey other than the fact that two significant road closures meant that I didn’t arrive home until almost 2am, when I would have been in before midnight without the M11 and A12 being totally closed off for road works at important junctions, with no advance warning that I was aware of.

My blog colleague, Geoff Hopkins, wrote an excellent review of the game and I couldn’t add much to his article. In my view, by West Ham standards in recent times I felt that some of our movement and passing was slick, and I also felt that our organisation and set up was good, and appropriate for the opponents we faced. I liked the way the defence worked as a unit. Fonte and Zabaleta combined well on the right, as did Collins and Cresswell on the left. Reid was almost an old-fashioned sweeper, mopping up. Zabaleta and Cresswell went forward well to provide width on the flanks, as we had five defenders without the ball, but reverted to three when we were in possession.

If only Kouyate had managed to get on the end of Carroll’s splendid cross in the first couple of minutes, or if Chicarito’s shot against the bar had been inches lower, then an early goal might have set us on our way to a more convincing victory. As it was we needed a lucky break for the opening goal, but it was certainly well deserved. Huddersfield were well organised defensively and came looking to stifle us, but they lacked adventure and flair going forward, and I believe they got what they deserved from the game, which was absolutely nothing.

Anybody who has read this blog in the last couple of seasons, or who may have read my articles in Over Land and Sea, or in my book Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford which covered the final season at Upton Park, will know that I am not a fan of West Bromwich Albion. The majority of our fans will, of course, put forward Tottenham as the team that they most dislike, and I don’t particularly care for them either, but when I consider which teams I just wouldn’t want to watch because of the way that they play football, then the Baggies top my list, having taken over the mantle from Stoke in recent seasons. The common denominator is, of course, their manager Tony Pulis. For me, there is so much to dislike about his approach to the game, and how his teams are set up, although I cannot argue with the effectiveness and results that are obtained. I watched a little of the televised West Brom v Stoke game earlier this season, but turned it off to go and watch some paint drying which was much more entertaining.

Last season was a particularly effective one for them, as they remained in the top half of the table almost throughout. In fact they were clear in eighth place for much of the second half, but had a disastrous run-in with seven defeats and a draw in their final eight games which relegated them to tenth, one place above, and level on points with us, but with a superior goal difference. They lost all of their four final home games of the season without managing to score a goal, losing every one of them to a single strike. In fact they failed to score a single goal in eight of their final twelve games of the season, their solitary victory in these dozen games being a 3-1 win over Arsenal.

This season began well for them results-wise with a (predictable?) 1-0 home win against Bournemouth, followed by another 1-0 win at Turf Moor. They were then held 1-1 by Stoke in their third game, before losing their unbeaten record in a 1-3 reverse at Brighton last weekend. From their viewpoint they have put an end to their failure to score at the end of last season, by finding the net once in each game. And seven points from four games puts them in the top half of the table once again, in ninth place.

Our manager has some interesting decisions to make in respect of team selection this weekend. I assumed that Lanzini, Fernandes and Noble would be fit, but this is apparently not the case. But of course Arnautavic has served his suspension for his lunacy at Southampton, and will therefore be pressing for a place in the starting line-up. The future dilemma for the manager will be how he can possibly fit players like Lanzini and Arnautavic back into the side to add much-needed creativity, whilst at the same time not losing out on the solidity in a defensive sense that was so evident in the Huddersfield game. Ayew’s contribution from the bench last Monday was an important, albeit surprisingly good one, and he will be hoping for his name on the team sheet today, too.

I have no idea what Mr. Bilic will decide to do, but personally, for the West Brom match I would retain the same team that started against Huddersfield, with Arnautavic and Ayew sitting eagerly on the bench waiting to enter the fray if we fall behind. I can see West Brom keeping up their record of scoring one goal in every game, and the question remains for me, will we manage to score one or even more goals? I’m hoping that we avoid complacency after our first win of the season on Monday. We need to watch for West Brom on set pieces as they are possibly the tallest side in the league, and try to use this to their advantage. Providing we can nullify this threat I can see us winning our first away game of the season by the odd goal in three.

High flying Huddersfield Town roll into town tonight, for the season’s opening fixture at the London Stadium, looking for the win which could take them to the very top of the Premier League table.  The Hammers, on the other hand, require victory by an equally unlikely six goal margin to lift themselves out of the relegation zone.

It is, of course, early days but Huddersfield manager, David Wagner, has the look of a man with a plan and an idea of how to implement it.  His team have a system that relies on round peg players fitting into round hole responsibilities where everyone knows what they are supposed to be doing and are both fit enough and disciplined enough to achieve it.  Almost the polar opposite, in fact,  of what we have been seeing from West Ham for the past year or so; aside from the notable odd occasion.

It would be difficult to imagine how the start to this season could have been any worse for the Hammers and the euphoria of what was meant to have been a fantastic transfer window is now a distant and illusory memory.  Poor performances and results on pitch and an obvious lack of unity between board and manager have created a toxic environment that could go critical should there be the typical slow and ponderous start in Stratford tonight. I imagine the visitors would be very aware of the situation and keen to exploit the vulnerability.

Head to Head

Games against Huddersfield have not been a regular feature in West Ham’s calendar in recent years.  In forty-one previous meetings, the Hammers have won eleven and lost twenty-two while the last twelve encounters (which include games as far back as 1958) have seen only three West Ham wins and seven defeats.  It is a rosier picture at home where West Ham have won six (lost five) of the last twelve; although for that sequence you need to go back to games played during the Great Depression of 1929.

Team News

There are, of course, two aspects to the concept of being fit; those who are not missing due to injury and those who have the stamina and pace to last a ninety minute game of Premier League football.  Focusing solely on the injury front, Manuel Lanzini and Edmilson Fernandes appear to be only definite non-starters while Marko Arnautovic serves the last of his three match ban.  This means possible returns for Winston Reid and (pause for trumpet salute) the unplayable Andy Carroll.  Trying to predict the starting lineup has become a pointless exercise given the disposition of the manager to come up with a formation and personnel that no-one else could possibly have thought of.

On paper, Bilic has the luxury of three fit strikers to choose from but with a fragile and sluggish central midfield and defence it is difficult to see how more than one can be accommodated at any one time, without the risk of further exposure.  The most likely scenario is starting with Javier Hernandez as the lonesome striker, bringing Carroll on in a desperate late attempt to score and leaving Diafro Sakho to sulk on the bench.

“Andy Caroll is OK. He’s been training now for almost four weeks with us and he looks good. He is going to be in the squad definitely. OK, we are playing on Monday but he is back and will be there, definitely.”

– Slaven Bilic on the return of the prodigal.

There is a good chance we will see the return of Cheikhou Kouyate in a midfield, where Mark Noble is still curiously preferred to Pedro Obiang, with the versatile Andre Ayew ( where versatile means equally inept in any position) filling in for Lanzini.  At least Reid returning to a probable back four is a welcome bonus.  Whether Declan Rice gets a look in after his one mistake is anyone’s guess but my sense is that Bilic will see his inclusion as a gamble in such a must-win game (for him).

Huddersfield have no significant injury problems and will be fresh from the international break where, with few of the squad away on international duty, they went one better than us by cruising to a 3-0 victory against pre-season opponents Altona 93 in Hamburg.

The Man in the Middle

Making his third London Stadium appearance is Kevin Friend from Leicestershire.  Friend was in charge of last season’s league defeat by Manchester City and the victory over Swansea.  He was also the referee in the historic win at Anfield in 2015 where he mysteriously sent of Noble for doing very little.  With officials continuing to make controversial game changing decisions let’s hope that he has a quiet game tonight.

Predictions

Lawro has gone 2-1 for West Ham while Merson is also predicting the same result and scoreline.  It is difficult to know what to expect when the league’s best defence (with no goals conceded) comes up against the worst (ten goals conceded).  I don’t see a high scoring game and the only goal of the match could eventually be enough.

“We have our aim and our target on Monday, but I think we should be honest that in terms of the size, these are two different clubs.”

– David Wagner on West Ham match

Huddersfield will be full of spirit, confidence and pressing and with West Ham missing their only true creative force in Lanzini it will be a struggle for them to break down the opposition’s rearguard.  The usual pattern of having lots of pointless possession in our own half would not be a surprise.  From what I have seen of Huddersfield they do not possess a massive goal threat but they should not be under-estimated on the break.

What is not needed is a cautious start and an early home goal could completely change the complexion of the game and the atmosphere inside the stadium.  The longer that the visitors can frustrate the more the barely concealed negativity is likely to spread.

I never want West Ham to lose a game but you do have to wonder whether defeat (and a new manager) might not be in the best interests of all concerned.  I would be happy to take a three or four goal romp and heap bounteous praise on the manager accordingly; on the ether hand but a scrambled win (like last year’s wins over Hull and Burnley) would leave us stuck in that limbo land where we have spent too much of our existence.  I will assume my position on the fence and predict a 1-1 draw.