Promotion Isn’t Won In September but are West Ham Beginning to Find Their Championship Identity?

A glimpse of the promotion contenders we hoped for with three points against Wolves

glasses I would probably have felt that it seemed like a significant moment in West Ham’s season. I hope it was significant but I was watching for a lot of the time through my fingers. In many ways it was a good and bad performance at the same time. To score four goals against a side likely to be one of the main contenders for promotion was certainly very good, and if we had been offered that prior to the game then the proverbial hand would have been bitten off. But once again two goals were conceded and it could have been more. The defence remains a big concern.

But after an uncertain start to life back in the Championship, we finally saw a performance that at times combined attacking quality, energy and, most importantly, three points. Divine Mukasa announced himself to a wider audience with two excellent goals. Jarrod Bowen still doesn’t quite seem to be the player we know he can be but I’m looking forward to him giving us a demonstration this season of why he will be one of the division’s standout players.

The win moved us onto five points from our opening four league matches after draws with Burnley and Watford and a disappointing defeat to Charlton. While sitting mid-table after four games is hardly promotion-winning form, the manner of the Wolves victory suggested that the team may finally be beginning to click. Mukasa’s double, the first one a worldie, the second perhaps a slightly fortunate deflection, and an overall attacking display that produced four goals against one of the pre-season promotion favourites should give everyone around the London Stadium genuine encouragement.

What was particularly encouraging was the contribution of some of our new arrivals. Mukasa stole the headlines, but I thought Joel Piroe helped create problems throughout. Manor Solomon has already shown flashes of the creativity and direct running that made him such a potentially exciting signing, while Arne Engels had his best game to date I reckon and will hopefully bring energy, composure and technical quality to midfield. Joel Veltman, meanwhile, should add experience and leadership to a defence that is still some way away from where it needs to be.

Of the nine summer signings, Engels, Edvin Austbo, Manor Solomon, Keiber Lamadrid, Adama Boiro, Joel Veltman, Morato, Joel Piroe and Divine Mukasa, it is those five players who we have been able to glimpse so far. But it is still very early days. It will take time for the team to settle and the others to get involved too. For me Mukasa’s performance against Wolves was undoubtedly the standout individual display of the season so far, but Engels will I hope be a natural fit in midfield. I’d like to see him alongside Orford, one academy player I have high hopes for. Solomon has added flair and shown flashes of what he is capable of, and Piroe will hopefully become the reliable goalscorer every promotion-chasing side needs. Championship campaigns are marathons rather than sprints. The depth provided by players such as Morato, Boiro, Austbo and Lamadrid will prove crucial once injuries, suspensions and fixture congestion begin to take their toll. I hope they all prove to be worthy additions. Time will tell.

Attention now turns to Saturday’s home game against Derby County. On paper, this is exactly the type of fixture that promotion contenders need to be winning. Derby arrive with four points from their opening four matches and have already shown some inconsistency, following up a good win at Portsmouth with a heavy defeat against Swansea. They may not be the biggest name in the division but they are exactly the kind of opponent who can trip up a side with promotion ambitions.

The challenge for West Ham is to build momentum. Too often over the years we have followed an encouraging result with a frustrating setback. If we can reproduce the intensity and attacking intent shown against Wolves, there is every reason to believe we can collect another three points. The London Stadium crowd should also be buoyed by what was witnessed on Monday night, creating an atmosphere that could help push the team forward. I’d just like to see us going for it right at the start of the match.

Looking more broadly at the promotion picture, the early Championship table illustrates just how competitive the division is likely to be. Swansea, QPR and Charlton are the unlikely leaders and have set the early pace with ten points from their first four matches, while Wolves remain firmly in contention despite their defeat in East London. West Ham sit on five points, which means there is work to do, but four games is far too early for definitive conclusions.

That brings me to an interesting comparison with last season’s promoted clubs: Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City. None of those sides won promotion in the opening month. In fact, all three were still finding their identity after four matches and were some distance from the consistency they eventually showed over the full campaign. After four games Coventry were fifth, Hull were 17th on four points, and Ipswich were 20th with three points.

History tells us that automatic promotion is rarely secured in September. Consistency over 46 matches is what matters. Geoff has pointed out in previous articles that looking at the last decade of Championship seasons, the second-placed side has typically required somewhere in the region of 88 to 96 points to secure automatic promotion. In several seasons, the total has been above 90 points, meaning a side usually needs to average close to two points per game across the campaign. We are currently up to 1.25.

That should serve as a reminder that our current tally of five points from four matches leaves little room for complacency. However, it should also provide perspective. One good run of form can transform the table remarkably quickly. Championship seasons are littered with examples of teams who made steady starts before hitting their stride.

The common thread between those teams was not a blistering start but continuous improvement. Each gradually developed a settled team, reliable partnerships and a clear style of play. They found ways to win difficult away games, avoided lengthy losing runs and accumulated points steadily through the winter months.

At West Ham we have the potential to follow a similar path. Unlike many Championship clubs, we do possess some genuine Premier League-level talent in the squad. Bowen remains one of the division’s elite players and is the best example. His quality and goals will hopefully make the difference in tight matches throughout the season.

We have scored eight goals, only Wolves (11) and Southampton (10) have scored more. But there are still issues to address. We aren’t flawless by any means and the Wolves game, despite the result, confirmed that. Wolves found a lot of space at times and controlled the majority of the possession as we began to sit back. The two goals we conceded were avoidable. As it did last season conceding goals remains a concern. We’ve conceded seven so far, only the bottom four clubs plus Millwall and Wolves have conceded more.

Yet for the first time this season I had a sense that the pieces are beginning, but only just beginning, to fall into place. The combination of Bowen’s experience, Engels arrival, Mukasa’s emergence, Taty and Piroe’s goalscoring instincts, and the quality added by the late summer recruitment giving the squad some added depth gives me reason for some optimism, certainly at Championship level. I hope that Mavropanos, who has been both good and bad so far, is not going to suffer the Hammer of the Year curse as Wan Bissaka did last season. I also don’t believe Kilman is as bad as most of our fans on social media believe, certainly not at this level.

If we can back up the Wolves performance with victories against Derby and in the matches that follow, then the conversation around West Ham will begin to change. Instead of discussing a difficult adjustment to Championship football, we will start talking about a club gathering momentum and moving towards the automatic promotion places.

Four games into the season, it is far too soon to panic and equally too soon to get carried away. But after Monday night’s performance, I am beginning believe West Ham finally look like a side capable of mounting and hopefully sustaining the promotion challenge I expected to see. Perhaps I do wear claret and blue tinted glasses? The task now is to prove it wasn’t a one-off.