I Wouldn’t Bet On It 23

Looking for a use for any left over Christmas chocolate money?

Fancy A Bet

Success yet again (very lucky some might say!) with the following bet last weekend:

 13 points on West Ham to win the game v Hull @8/13 (21)

 Our new balance is 146 points.

This time I reckon we’ll draw at Swansea so will stake the following:

10 points on Swansea v West Ham to be a draw @12/5 (34)
8 points on West Ham to win @7/4 (22)
1 point on a 1-1 draw @6/1 (7)
1 point on Sigurdsson 1st goal and 1-1 score @33/1 (34)
1 point on Noble 1st goal and 1-1 score @66/1 (67)

Our balance reduces to 125 points after staking 21 points above. We win very slightly if we win the game, and win more if the game end in a draw.

Potential returns if correct in brackets.

What are the chances?

The Lawro Challenge – Week 18

A festive head-to-head with the celebrated BBC pundit predictor in the Boxing Day edition of the Lawro challenge.

Xmas LawroSeventeen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now attempted to predict the results of 170 matches so far.

In Week 17, Rich scored 6 points, Geoff 10 points, and Lawro 7 points. With a win for Geoff for the second week running is there an unlikely comeback on the cards .

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

Full of festive spirit we now march on to week 18.

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Total after 16 weeks

138

94

124

Score in week 17

6

10

7

Total after 17 weeks

144

104

131

 

 

 

 

Predictions – Week 18

 

 

 

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Monday

 

 

 

Watford v Palace

2-1

1-2

1-1

Arsenal v WBA

1-0

3-1

2-0

Burnley v Middlesbrough

2-1

1-0

1-1

Chelsea v Bournemouth

2-0

3-0

2-0

Leicester v Everton

1-1

2-0

2-1

Man U v Sunderland

4-1

2-0

3-0

Swansea v West Ham

1-1

1-2

0-2

Hull v Man City

0-2

1-4

0-3

Tuesday

 

 

 

Liverpool v Stoke

2-0

3-1

3-0

Wednesday

 

 

 

Southampton v Tottenham

1-1

0-1

0-2

Down with the Christmas decorations?

We look at whether the West Ham reputation of coming down with the Xmas decorations is fact or myth.

Christmas Decorations

I first went to Upton Park in the 1958-59 season. That means that this is my 59th season of actively supporting the team. Of the 58 completed seasons, 49 have been spent in the top flight of English football, and just 9 in the second tier. I have seen us relegated five times and then promoted back five times.

We’ve always had a reputation for coming down with the Christmas decorations. So I thought I’d conduct some research to ascertain whether this is a fact or a myth. Looking at those 49 seasons at the top table I found that on 22 occasions we finished the season in a lower position than we held on Christmas Day. And 22 times we actually finished up in a higher position at the end than we were at Christmas. Five times we ended up in exactly the same position. So in reality, on average the second half of the season has been equally as good as the first.

It is true that in the 1960s and 1980s the trend was to fall in the league table after Christmas more often than not. But since 1993-94, our first season in the newly formed Premier League, we have been in the top flight for 20 seasons, and in that time we have only finished the season in a lower position than we were at Christmas on three occasions. In 1993-94 we dropped from 11th to 13th, in 2000-01 we fell from 10th to 15th, and the biggest fall was in 2014-15 when in Big Sam’s final season we went from 4th at Christmas to finish 12th. In every other year we have either retained or improved our position in the second half. So apart from Big Sam’s swansong, we have never fallen to a lower position at the end of the season than we held at Christmas in our last 12 seasons in the top flight.

Our Christmas Day position this year is 13th. Our average finishing position in the 49 seasons in the top division in my lifetime is 13th. Of course 3rd was our best performance of all in 1985-86. That season we were 3rd at Christmas too. And on the five occasions when we were relegated, our positions on Christmas Day were 21, 20, 18, 20, 20. So if history (especially recent history) is anything to go by, what is there to worry about?

Of course we have played indifferently in quite a few games this season. But our five 1-0 victories, and four draws, leave us on 19 points from 17 games. It has not been a good season, especially compared to the last one. Our manager and the players still have a lot of work to do to ensure that we keep our distance from the relegation places, and hopefully push on upwards towards the top half of the table. We must stop throwing away points when we are leading in games too. The 12 points we have dropped from leading positions, would have seen us in 5th place in the table if we had held on to the lead in those matches.

It’s not all doom and gloom as some articles in the media would suggest. It hasn’t been the best, but trust me we’ve been here before. We’ve never been relegated from this position in the table at Christmas, and it won’t happen this season either. We are only five points behind seventh place in the table, which is where we finished last season. I’m looking for us to move upwards after Christmas, just as we have done in most seasons in the twenty-first century.  The generally held belief that we come down with the Christmas decorations is a false one.

West Ham 1 v 0 Hull

A review of the Hull game – A star is born.

Embed from Getty Images

A couple of days ago Geoff Hopkins wrote an excellent article with five observations in respect of robbing Hull of three points at the weekend. It is hard to disagree with anything that he said. During the game tweeted that he believed the post was our man of the match, and his idea was followed up on some post-match polls with thousands of respondents who agreed with his selection.

Whenever a player is known by one name you know he is a star. Pele, Maradonna, and now Post. Post, whose real name is Woody Woodwork, is related to a number of famous people such as Rod Laver, Rod Marsh, Postman Pat, Woody (of Toy Story fame) and Roy Wood, whose Christmas song is played throughout December. He is also closely related to Barry Bar of Crossbar Challenge fame.

Reports that Post was seen staggering out of an East End nightclub at 4am on Sunday morning were way off the mark according to his agent, Posty McPost Face. Posty confirmed that Post is an upright character who spent the evening at home with his wife, Wendy Woodwork, after a meal at a Chigwell restaurant with close friends.

Post has always been known as a hard man at the back, and his agent has lined him up with several lucrative endorsement opportunities, the biggest one being the front for a new Viagra campaign. Sales of West Ham home shirts with “POST” on the back have been the biggest seller in the club shop in the lead up to Christmas.

Despite Post coming to our rescue three times, and the general agreement that Hull deserved to win the game, or most certainly didn’t deserve to lose, it is interesting to note some of the statistics for the game. Now as Geoff and I have written on some occasions in the past, football statistics can be interesting but in many respects are meaningless when considering the outcome of a game.

Nevertheless I will set out below some of the key statistics that are always collected at games. Those people who believe in the statistics will find it hard to believe that Hull were unlucky losers.

Possession – West Ham 56%, Hull 44%
Shots – West Ham 19, Hull 16
Shots on Target – West Ham 6, Hull 5
Corners – West Ham 10, Hull 6

None of this really means anything except that we had the ball more than they did, we shot at goal more than they did, we had more shots on target than they did, and forced more corners than they did. I know that the general view is that we were fortunate (very fortunate!), but the fact of the matter is we scored a goal and they didn’t. And when it comes down to allocation of points that means we got three and they got zero.

Of course if we keep playing like this, then as Geoff pointed out, we are unlikely to win many more games. But, just for the moment I will take our seven points from three distinctly average performances in the past week. Things will need to improve drastically, but I can remember many occasions in our history when we have deserved to win games but haven’t. It’s good for the boot to be on the other foot for a change.

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 22

Remaining cautious after another nice little earner.

Fancy A Bet

Success on Wednesday evening yet again with the following bet:

12 points on West Ham to win at 4/6 (20).

Our balance was down to 120 points after placing the bet, but our win of 20 points increases our total to 140.

West Ham are doing well for us, but I am still not going to be tempted to stake too big.

So the main bet for Saturday is 13 points on West Ham to win the game @8/13 (21)

With two fun bets:

1 point on West Ham to win 2-1 and Andy Carroll to score the first goal @ 35/1 (36)
1 point on West Ham to win 3-1 and Andy Carroll to score the first goal @ 55/1 (56)

Total stake = 15 points; cumulative balance 125.

Potential returns if correct in brackets.

What are the chances?

The Lawro Challenge – Week 17

The challenge to out-predict the long time BBC pundit moves towards the halfway point.

Lawro Crystal BallSixteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 160 matches. In Week 16, Rich scored 8 points, Geoff 13 points, and Lawro 10 points. This was Geoff’s best performance of the season so far, and could be the beginning of a rise to challenge for the lead. Or it could be just a one-off. Rich got 8 results correct but he could not get any correct scores. Lawro got six correct results, two of which were also the correct score. Geoff got seven correct results, three of which were also the correct score. In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now march on to week 17. Just two weeks after this one to the halfway stage.

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Total after 15 weeks

130

81

114

Score in week 16

8

13

10

Total after 16 weeks

138

94

124

 

 

 

 

Predictions – Week 17

 

 

 

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

SATURDAY

 

 

 

Palace v Chelsea

0-2

0-2

1-1

Middlesbrough v Swansea

2-1

1-1

2-0

Stoke v Leicester

2-1

2-2

1-2

Sunderland v Watford

3-2

2-1

2-1

West Ham v Hull

3-1

2-0

2-0

West Brom v Man United

1-1

1-1

0-2

SUNDAY

 

 

 

Bournemouth v Southampton

2-1

2-2

2-0

Man City v Arsenal

2-2

2-1

1-1

Tottenham v Burnley

3-0

4-0

2-0

MONDAY

 

 

 

Everton v Liverpool

1-2

2-1

1-1

West Ham 1 v 0 Burnley

A review of the Burnley game and a look forward to Hull

Embed from Getty Images

Once again the poetry was successful as we scraped home by a single goal against Burnley on Wednesday evening. We started the game reasonably well and were just about good value for the single goal half-time lead. But Burnley came back strongly in the second half, and but for some woeful finishing, plus some fine goalkeeping from Randolph, they could well have got a (deserved?) point from the game. I’m not quite sure what happened in the second half, but we sat back rather than going for a second goal which would have made the game more comfortable. A 2-0 lead and we would have been in a strong position. Although one pundit on TV recently said that a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous lead to have. Poppycock. It is far better to be leading by two goals rather than one. A 1-0 lead, or being one goal ahead is far more dangerous in my eyes.

Who were our best performers on the night? Always subjective, but for me Randolph, Reid, Obiang and Carroll stood out. I’d like to think we would be beating teams like Burnley with greater ease, but with our current relatively poor form, and lack of confidence, I guess we should just be satisfied with three points and move on to the next game. Two seasons ago when we last played Burnley at home we won the game 1-0 with a Mark Noble penalty. This time he failed to score from the spot, but the rebound fell kindly and he had an easy task to slot the ball home.

So that is now one game down of the four easier (on paper) fixtures to take us to the end of 2016, that everyone has been going on about, and we now have a four point cushion ahead of the relegation places. Just a few days ago we were in the bottom three. The visit of Hull gives us the opportunity to stretch the cushion further.

Hull began the season with two victories, against champions Leicester, and Swansea, meaning they were joint top with six points after just two games. However, in the subsequent 14 games they have won only once (v Southampton), and drawn three times, v Burnley, West Brom, and Palace. Their 12 points leaves them in the relegation zone, and they have the worst goal difference in the whole of the Premier League by a long way (-21). They have scored 14 goals and conceded 35. This is mainly as a result of some heavy defeats, 3-0 to both Sunderland and Tottenham (on Wednesday), 4-1 to Arsenal, 5-1 to Liverpool, and 6-1 at Bournemouth being the biggest.

We are even stronger favourites to win the game than we were against Burnley, but that was a struggle. How will we fare this time? It’s hard to know, but perhaps our first win in a few games will give us the confidence to progress, and possibly play with a bit less fear than seemed to be the case in midweek, especially in the second half, when we began to get a bit jittery. I’m confident that we can continue to push on now, and despite our less than convincing win on Wednesday, the optimist in me predicts a 3-1 victory.

What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 21

Success at the weekend urges a little caution for the midweek flutter.

Fancy A Bet

Success at the weekend with the following bets:

10 points on West Ham to win or draw the game @5/2 (35).
1 point on a 2-2 draw @16/1 (17)

Our balance was down to 80 points after placing the bets, but our winnings of 52 points increase our total to 132, making us 32 points up for the season. In my case at £1 per point I am £32 up.

The temptation is to stake big following a good win, but that is an easy trap to fall into. I will resist going too mad, so just a simple bet on the Burnley game. Potential return if correct in brackets.

12 points on West Ham to win at 4/6 (20).

For the first time in a while I am not placing a bet on Pedro Obiang to score, so perhaps he will?

What are the chances?

West Ham v Burnley preview

‘Twas The Night Before Burnley!

51tht5c1y0l

Once again I will return to my rhyming theme as it has generally brought us a good result or a fine performance. I have written a number of poems based on the famous ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas. I included similar poems in my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, which is available in paperback or Kindle on Amazon. So if you are looking for a last minute Christmas present for a West Ham fan, then look no further. I have been a regular at Upton Park for almost sixty years, and the book chronicles the last famous season there.

‘Twas the night before Burnley, you couldn’t hear a sound
Just wait till tomorrow, for the noise in the ground;

Three tough league away games plus one in the cup;
A home game v Arsenal, and they’re on the up;
Performances were mixed, for a short time we fell
Into the bottom three, cos we weren’t doing well;

At Tottenham we led with minutes to go,
But two very late goals dealt us a blow;

The Old Trafford league game, we started full throttle;
And Jose was sent off for kicking a bottle.
Sakho was back in the lone striker role;
With two minutes gone, he headed a goal;
Zlatan equalised, I thought we were gone;
But 1-1 was OK, we were able to hold on.

A few days later, they opened the scoring,
In the EFL cup it was getting quite boring;
But then at his old ground up popped Ashley Fletcher;
But the second half was awful, the less said the better;

Arsenal at home, it wasn’t much fun;
Sanchez was brilliant, they beat us five-one.

At Anfield one down, looked like we were done,
But a Payet free kick and the score was one-one.
Antonio pounced to give us the lead;
Nordtveit was given a rollicking by Reid;
Then a simple mistake, we’ve made a quite a few;
A Randolph disaster, Origi, two-two.
Many years at Anfield, t’was always the same;
But in the last couple we’ve given them a game.

So now we face Burnley, then Hull City too;
Six points for the taking? I hope it comes true;
However we play, I’ll take two wins gladly,
It won’t be that easy they haven’t played badly;

At Turf Moor they’re good, five wins to their name;
But out on the road, it’s not been the same;
Just one point away, they’ve found it quite hell;
On other teams grounds, they’ve not played that well;

They’re keeper’s a good’un, he’s known as Tom Heaton,
But six away games, and five games been beaten;
Fifteen conceded, and only scored one;
And that was a pen, they’ve not had much fun;

I do like their colours, I’ll give them their due;
For this game they’ll change out of claret and blue;
Today I’m convinced we’ll go for the kill;
We’ll be at our best and beat them four-nil.

Counting Sheep – 12 – The Letters (V,W, X, Y, Z)

Finishing off the last of the series of alphabetically themed West Ham teams.

Counting SheepIt had been a really good summer this year with hot days and warm nights. I began this series of articles by describing how, whenever I have trouble going off to sleep when the night temperatures are high, I think of teams of West Ham players. So I forget the idea of counting sheep and try to select a West Ham team that I have seen whose surnames all start with the same letter. It was harder, in fact impossible, for me to select players beginning with a single letter in many cases, so I’ve combined the letters in some cases to form a single team.

For the final article in my feature I now move on to the very end of the alphabet and have chosen a team whose surnames begin with V, W, X, Y or Z. Not surprisingly I couldn’t come up with any players beginning with X. But less surprisingly no Ys either! Can somebody help me out here? I honestly cannot remember ever seeing a West Ham player whose surname begins with Y.

So far I’ve picked eleven teams, “B”, “C”, “D”, “F”, “S”, a combined “G” and “H”, a combined “J”, “K” and “L”, a combined “M” and “N”, a combined “P” and “Q”, a combined “R” and “T”, and “Vowels”. So here is my V/W/X/Y/Z team (with no X or Y!) in a 3-3-4 attacking formation:

Walker
Walford,
Ward (E)
Winterburn
Woosnam
Ward (M)
Van der Elst
Wright (I)
Zamora
Zaza
Vaz Te

Players left out include Richard Wright, Williamson, Whitton, Whitbread, Valencia and Zarate

I’ve probably missed someone who I should have remembered. Would you have selected any of the players that I left out of my final XI?

And who would manage the V/W/X/Y/X team? It has to be Zola.

So I started at the beginning of the alphabet and worked my way through selecting twelve teams to help me drop off to sleep. I was disappointed to only manage five teams with single letters, but it was a fruitful exercise, albeit much harder than I thought it would be when I began. It helped me drop off to sleep, worked my brain, and brought back memories of the best players I’ve seen playing for West Ham. The summer is now behind us so going off to sleep is not a problem. But if I can’t drop off I can always revert to counting sheep.