Richard Bennett

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 26

Taking a punt on the lottery that is FA Cup Round 3.

Fancy A Bet

We lost our stake of 15 points on the Manchester United game. I hold Mike Dean totally responsible! Our balance is now 115 points.

For the Manchester City FA Cup third round game, anybody who read my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, may recall some bad luck I’ve had in the past when betting on West Ham playing City games in the past, especially placing correct score bets on a 4-1 score.

Of course betting on FA Cup games, especially in the early rounds can be a bit of a lottery, as it is difficult to gauge the strength of the teams that the managers will select, based upon their desire to win the game. But I am feeling confident, based upon our performance on Monday night.

For this game I have found the following odds on Betfair and Paddy Power, and with my optimistic hat on my stakes are as follows:

10 points on a West Ham victory @4.7/1 (Betfair) (57)
4 points on a draw @3.3/1 (Betfair) (17.2)
1 point on a West Ham 4-1 victory (Paddy Power) @125/1 (126)

After placing these bets our balance is down to 100 points, which is exactly where we started! Potential returns if correct in brackets.

What are the chances?

West Ham v Manchester City preview

Only our third ever meeting with Manchester City in the FA Cup. Can we pull off a famous win?

City Cup Game

In my previous article, 11 v 11, I wrote about red cards. I mentioned that some of our recent red cards have been rescinded after the event. What I didn’t say was that of our last five red cards, 4 have been wiped off by the FA commission that adjudicates on the appeals. That is a ridiculously high percentage of games where the referee has got an important decision totally wrong.

For this BBC televised game we have Michael Oliver, who at 31 is by far the youngest referee at the top level, and in my opinion is one of the best. He doesn’t issue red cards lightly; in fact his sending off of the Bournemouth captain in the 3-3 draw against Arsenal this week was his only dismissal this season, and few argued with it. I hope I haven’t jinxed his performance with this praise, and hope that there are no dismissals in this game.

This is the first time he has officiated in one of our games this season, but Liverpool seem to like him. He has refereed four of their games this season, and they have won all four scoring 16 goals in the process! He hasn’t been our luckiest referee in the past. We’ve only won three of the eleven games when he has been in charge.

For anyone who is superstitious with dates I am happy to relate that in the past twenty years we have played five FA Cup ties on January 6, and haven’t lost any of them. In 1996, Michael Hughes and John Moncur scored in a 2-0 victory over Southend. In 2001, we knocked out Walsall 3-2 with two goals from Kanoute and one from Lampard. Fifteen years ago, in 2002, Macclesfield were safely despatched 3-0 with two goals from Jermaine Defoe (where have I come across that name lately??) and one from Joe Cole. And ten years ago in 2007, another comfortable victory against Brighton (3-0), with goals from Carlton Cole, Mullins and Mark Noble.

Two years ago in 2015, we drew 1-1 at Everton, before drawing 2-2 in the replay at Upton Park which was decided 9-8 on penalties, with the winning kick being scored by Adrian, famously throwing off his gloves before blasting home the decisive penalty. Of course that is not the only goal Adrian scored at Upton Park; many will remember the great fun of the Mark Noble testimonial game last season, when Adrian ran the length of the pitch (ably minded by Pedro Obiang) to score past David James.

I haven’t gone back beyond 20 years when looking at FA Cup ties, because before then we did have some ignominious defeats on January 6, being knocked out by Torquay and Plymouth, and drawing against Wrexham before losing in a second replay (no penalty shoot outs in the distant past). But recent history is good.

We seem to be drawn against some teams frequently in the FA Cup, but Manchester City is not one of them. We have only met them three times in the competition before this season. In the fourth round in 1998 we won 2-1 at Maine Road with goals from Berkovich and (ex-City player) Steve Lomas. In 2006 we were drawn away to them in the sixth round, and two Dean Ashton goals helped to secure a 2-1 victory on our way to the final. In 2008, we met them in the third round at Upton Park, drawing 0-0, before losing the replay eleven days later to the only goal of the game.

The bookmakers are quoting odds of 4/6 for City to win this game, a ridiculously short price considering their recent form, and the lack of knowledge regarding the strength of the team they will put out. It’s hard to predict who Bilic will select as well, but I believe he will ensure we have a strong side out, especially as our next league game (at home to Palace) is more than a week away. Of course we haven’t pulled up many trees either this season, but as always I am confident of a victory, and wearing my optimistic hat once again, predict 4-1.

What are the chances? The bookmakers will give you around 125/1! Enjoy the game.

11 v 11

Should the red card receive its marching orders?

Red Card

So, Sofiane Feghouli’s red card was rescinded and he can now play, if selected, (and I hope he is) against Manchester City in the FA Cup third round game. I was horrified to read some so-called West Ham fans writing on twitter that as it was only Feghouli it wouldn’t have made much difference anyway! So many are quick to judge new signings based upon limited evidence. Unlike some I have high hopes in respect of Feghouli. He had a superb game in one of our early European matches this season, and even in the first 15 minutes of the United game showed some great touches. He has been injured, but now that he has recovered I think that he will prove some doubters wrong in the games to come.

Although it was possibly one of the most ridiculous sending off decisions I have witnessed in over 58 years of watching football, I did wonder about the outcome of the appeal, as we are in the hands of an FA three-person commission, and it is hard to predict what will happen sometimes. However on this occasion, if the appeal had been rejected, then it would have been against the views of around 99% of people who witnessed the incident and those who reported upon it in the media.

But many of you may remember the Swansea Chico Flores incident, when Andy Carroll was dismissed by Howard Webb after Flores gave an amazing display of acting, even worse than that of Jones the other evening. West Ham appealed but the red card stood. The three-man commission had voted 2-1 so it was obviously a close decision, and the fact that it was Howard Webb, reputedly the top referee in the country at the time (debatable in my opinion), may have swung it against Carroll. That same weekend Danny Rose had his red card rescinded.

It’s terrible that a footballer would try to get a fellow professional sent off, and even worse that referees fall for it. But Jones succeeded by the manner of his twisting, arching his back, and rolling over, and Manchester United went on to claim the three points, however unjustly. I’m afraid that I don’t agree with the “these things even themselves out over the season” lobby, as I’m afraid they don’t. It’s quite a co-incidence how the big clubs always seem to be the winners in these situations.

Unlike many people who sit in the stands to watch West Ham, I hate to see it when any player is sent off, whether it is one of ours or one of our opponents. Many fans seem to love it when an opposition player is dismissed, but I don’t. It totally spoils the entertainment and generally makes for a very unbalanced game, usually attack v defence. The team with 11 usually win, though not always, and West Ham have in the past showed that we are not the best team around to exploit a man advantage.

We’ve had a few players sent off in recent seasons and a surprising number have been rescinded, and perhaps even more should have been. A good referee should only dismiss players when he is absolutely certain that it is the correct decision to do so. The entertainment of thousands (and sometimes millions for TV games) can be spoiled by an incorrect action.

But I would like to see a change in the laws, and no players to be sent off. Instead, if a player commits what is considered to be a red card offence, then the referee can hold up a red card but the player stays on the field. The team he plays for will have one point deducted for every red card issued. A player could even receive more than one red card in a match. You could even have a similar deduction if say, three yellow cards are issued against one team in a single match.

If the punishment affects the team’s points then managers will soon instil in their players the need to avoid these situations. I can foresee a big improvement in dissent from players, too. The player can still be punished after the game by fines, and or bans, and appeals can still be heard, although these should be by a bigger committee, and should be openly witnessed, and not held secretly. Anybody who has seen televised stewards’ objections in horse racing disputes will agree that open viewing is an excellent way to show justice being done.

By implementing this change where no player is sent off, but points deducted instead, the teams and players will still be punished where the decision is proved to be a correct one, they will avoid punishment if it is judged to be incorrect on appeal, but the main beneficiaries will be the spectators who will not have their entertainment ruined by inept referees.

West Ham 0 v 2 Mike Dean, part two.

Dear Sir, I wish to complain in the strongest possible terms ………

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The game began and what a bright start we made. As I had thought, the absence of Noble and Carroll meant that we would be moving the ball at pace, without too much reliance on long balls to our big striker, and trying to pick up knock downs. Now I am a fan of Carroll, but sometimes believe that when he is in the team we don’t vary our playing patterns sufficiently to pose a threat to the opposition.

Lanzini, Payet, Feghouli, and others were linking well with some incisive one touch passing at speed, and I really felt that this was going to be some game. And then came the moment after about a quarter of an hour which has been the subject of much debate since. Anyone reading this will know what happened, and probably around 99% of everyone I’ve read or heard agrees that the referee, Mike Dean, blundered badly, and in effect ruined the match from that point on. I don’t think I’ve ever heard such a collective gasp in a stadium when he produced the red card.

The team were galvanised and played with great organisation, but it was always going to be a big ask to hold a team of the quality of Manchester United for 75 minutes. Reid and Ogbonna were splendid at the back, the magnificent Obiang had an imperious game in midfield (why do so many people overlook his great qualities and importance to the team?). Lanzini was having an excellent game too, and the rest of the team were playing their part.

We had one let off in the first half when our old friend Post came to the rescue (as he did three times in the Hull game), after Randolph had made a terrific strong arm save to keep the ball out at point blank range. Goal line technology proved just how close it was to crossing the line when I watched the game back on TV after returning home. It would have been a travesty if a goal had been scored, because from my position directly in line, Lingard (I think) seemed well offside when he hit the post, and I couldn’t understand why the linesman hadn’t raised his flag.

The introduction of Rashford and Mata in the second half gave the men from Manchester greater impetus, and as we tired, it was no great surprise when we eventually conceded a goal. Shortly before we fell behind, Lanzini put a great ball through to Antonio, but one on one with De Gea he managed to hit his legs. Mourinho described it as a great save after the game, but I felt it just hit him. Antonio had failed to connect with a header earlier, so we did have chances to score the first goal of the game. Had one of them gone in then it might have been a different story.

Post came to the rescue a second time when a shot slid under Randolph’s grasp, but their second goal killed the game off. From my position at the other end Ibrahimovic looked as if he might have been offside, and this was later confirmed when I saw the replay.

All in all the players can be proud of their performances, something which cannot be said of the match officials. Dean ruined a game of football for 55,000 people with his blunder, and for any watching on TV. There is no excuse for the linesman who blundered badly, too. Quite frankly they were inept throughout the match, and had no feel for what was happening. We always hope for consistency from referees and no two games can be compared exactly, but anyone who saw Ross Barkley’s horror tackle on Jordan Henderson recently, which Dean only thought worthy of a yellow card, can only shake their head in bewilderment in his treatment of Feghouli. Barkley’s potential leg-breaker provoked an explosive melee in the Liverpool v Everton game, whereas in our game, some United players were consoling Feghouli about the unjustness of his sending off.

Of course Jones played his part in the dismissal, arching his back and rolling over and over, but a minute later he was running around without the slightest limp. Some United players ran to the referee when the two players collided, but they always do that, don’t they?

Quite frankly the whole match was ruined by one person who thinks he is part of the entertainment. He is not. Scathing attacks on his performance have come from all quarters after the game. Garth Crooks on BBC, Alan Smith and Niall Quinn on Sky post-match, and other ex-referees such as Poll, Halsey and Webb all agreed it was a ruinous decision for the game. One that I found especially interesting was from Keith Hackett, who famously sent off Tony Gale in the FA Cup semi-final 25 years or so ago. Hackett, in his piece, admitted his major error in sending off Gale, and remarked that Dean should have thought longer over his decision.

My next letter of complaint is to Mike Riley, the referees supremo. I was disgusted by the ruination of my evening entertainment, and I will demand to know what he is going to do about the poor state of officialdom which falls under his control. Too many games are being spoiled by inept officials.

And it is about time that video replays were introduced to try to eradicate some of these gross errors. But that is for another article …

[Click Here for Part One of this Article]

West Ham 0 v 2 Mike Dean, part one.

Dear Sir, I wish to complain in the strongest possible terms ………

Stewards

Monday 2^nd January wasn’t my favourite day of the year so far. The day began OK and we spent the morning taking down the Christmas tree and decorations, moving the tree to the garden to be chopped up and re-cycled at a later date, and depositing the boxes of various decorations into the loft for another year. A leisurely lunch and then we set off for the London Stadium at around 2.30pm.

We live in Bury St Edmunds so it is quite a trip when we go to watch West Ham, but not as far as some fans travel. Listening to the radio on the A11 I realised that the kick off was at 5.15, not 5.30 that I had in mind, but still leaving us sufficient time to get there on time. As we reached the junction with the M11 there was a long tail-back of traffic, and we crawled for most of the journey to Epping, which is where we normally catch the Central Line train for Stratford.

Unfortunately the car park at Epping, the largest car park on the whole London Underground network, was full, as were all the nearby streets within walking distance of the station. Never mind, we drove on two further stops down the line to Debden and parked there. We got to Stratford around 40 minutes before kick-off and set off on the long winding route march to the ground. As West Ham fans have found, although a direct walk from Stratford station to the London Stadium shouldn’t really take that long, it is not possible to take the most obvious route, and we are directed on a journey that takes twice as long in dark streets with minimal lighting. You can see the stadium but don’t seem to be getting much nearer following the prescribed course.

When we reached the stadium the crowds outside and queues to get in were much bigger than usual. I soon found out the reason why. The security checks and bag searches were more extensive than usual. When my bag was searched, security found that, in addition to gloves, hats, the programme, a few snacks etc. we were trying to enter the ground with two dangerous articles, namely two plastic bottles of Pepsi Max. Now I don’t have a problem with security searches normally, but this time it was as if we were going through Stansted airport. I was surprised that they didn’t ask us to remove our belts and shoes!

I was not impressed with the manner of the way we were treated by the security guy, who was insistent that we deposit the offensive Pepsi Max plastic bottles in a bin before entering the ground. I asked to speak to his boss and was directed to another security guy. I explained that the drinks were for our journey home. With the game ending after 7pm, and the difficulty in entering the Westfield Centre after the match to buy a drink for our return trip, I demanded to know why we were not allowed to keep our drinks.

I was informed that no dangerous weapons are permitted in the ground! Now I am a long- time supporter in my sixties, and have been watching the team regularly since 1958, and have never before been stopped from entering the ground with plastic bottles of drink. I stood my ground and insisted that Pepsi Max was not a dangerous weapon. What did they think I was going to do with it? Apparently it is considered to be a danger to fans if I threw it! I explained I had no intention of using it as a missile. I wanted a drink on the way home. Now I sit about as far away from the opposition fans as is possible in the London Stadium, and not even Steve Backley could throw a javelin that distance, let alone a soft drinks plastic bottle. Surely coins are a much more dangerous missile; what next, will we be asked to remove all coins from our pocket before entering the stadium?

The chief security guy finally agreed that we could take the plastic bottles into the ground if we removed the caps! Kick-off time was approaching and I wasn’t prepared to discuss the matter any further, so we took of the caps and entered through the turnstiles with our full bottles of Pepsi-Max without the tops. I did ask the security guy for the name of the authority that imposed the rules, and he informed me that it wasn’t actually a stadium requirement as such (plastic bottles of drink are sold within the ground), but a strict directive from Gold and Sullivan, and I should direct my complaint to them.

When I reached my seat as Bubbles began, I was relating the story to the grandfather who sits next to me with his six year old grandson. He had the same experience and his grandson’s fruit shoot also had to have the cap removed before they entered the ground. Very frustrated by my experience I sat down to watch the game. I looked at the teams and was pleased to see that the manager had selected a side which was likely to have more pace than usual. I was looking forward to the game. I really felt that it was going to be a good one. I will write a letter of complaint to Messrs. Gold and Sullivan tomorrow to see what they have to say.

(To be continued …..)

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 25

Keeping it simple as we look for value in today’s big game with the reds of Manchester.

Fancy A Bet

No luck with the bets for the game at Leicester, so with a balance of 130 points we move on to the Manchester United game. I like the odds on Betfair for this game, so despite United’s good run of late, I fancy us to repeat our victory over them in the last game at Upton Park. Of course we have already played them twice this season at Old Trafford, drawing in the league, but we were on the end of a bit of a hiding in the EFL Cup. Rooney always seems to score against us but I don’t think he has travelled for this game. So keeping it simple, the bets for today, which I’ve found on Betfair:

9 points on West Ham to beat Man Utd @5/1 (50)
5 points on the game ending in a draw @16/5 (21)
1 point on a repeat score from May i.e. a 3-2 win for West Ham @59/1 (60)

Total stake 15 points, reducing our balance to 115 points.

Potential returns if correct in brackets.

What are the chances?

Preview: West Ham v Manchester United

Previewing the Manchester United game plus a look back at the 1-0 defeat at Leicester.

Reid v Man Utd The second half of our 2016-17 Premier League campaign begins with the visit of Manchester United. Nobody who was there will ever forget their last visit on that warm May evening eight months ago, when we came from behind to record that famous 3-2 victory in our final game at Upton Park. We will be hoping to achieve a similar points haul against United to that attained last season, when we drew at Old Trafford before beating them at home.

When you consider that they are the most successful club in the history of English football, with 20 league titles and 11 FA Cups, we have a good record against them in competitive matches on our own ground. In over 60 meetings we have won 26 to their 15, although in the 21^st century we have only beaten them three times in the league at Upton Park. In addition to last season’s win, we beat them in two consecutive seasons; 2006-07, when a Reo-Coker goal was the only goal of the game, and the following year when Anton Ferdinand and Upson were our scorers in a 2-1 victory. In that game we were trailing to an early Ronaldo goal when United were awarded a penalty midway through the second half. However Ronaldo pulled the penalty kick wide of the post, and our two central defenders each scored with late headers in a memorable finale to the game. Of course it was a similar tale last season when two late headers won the game for us.

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United go into this game in sixth place in the table, although I guess their fans would have expected them to be closer to the top and challenging for the title, especially with the appointment of Mourinho this season. They have had a good run of results recently, and remain unbeaten since a heavy defeat at Stamford Bridge in October. This included a 1-1 draw against us, when Sakho’s early goal was cancelled out by Ibrahimovic. Mkhitaryan scored a spectacular goal for them in a recent victory over Sunderland, although this was well offside. I fail to understand how a trained assistant referee failed to spot this, or was it just another of those occasions when a “big club” get fortunate with decisions in their favour, especially when playing at home?

Our 1-0 defeat at Leicester on Saturday meant that we reached the mid-point of the season with 22 points from our nineteen games, which is 7 fewer than last time, but more than we might have expected just one month ago. We rose a place to twelfth position thanks to Tottenham beating Watford 4-1 on Sunday, meaning that our goal difference is now better than that of the Hornets. Mark Noble picked up an injury at Leicester and I believe is likely to be missing for this game. This might be a blessing in disguise for us enabling Pedro Obiang to return in the defensive midfield role.

Geoff reviewed the game at Leicester admirably. I have only seen highlights but from what I saw we were unlucky to not get a point, but we seemed to start slowly once again. We must really get out of this bad habit of starting lethargically, and be up for a fast start to the game, especially against United. We need to be at them from the start in a similar way to how they started against us in the EFL cup game. The bookies don’t fancy us at all and I’ve seen odds of up to 5/1 for us to win the game. I’ll have some of that and will be looking for a win by the odd goal, perhaps 2-1 or 3-2. What are the chances?

The Lawro Challenge – Week 20

The bid to out predictor the BBC prediction guru enters the second half of the season.

Xmas Lawro Nineteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 190 matches. We have now reached the halfway stage in the Premier League season.

Normal service was resumed In Week 19 where Rich scored a commendable 10 points, Geoff an underwhelming 4 points, and Lawro also weighed in with 10 points of his own . In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now move on to week 20 and the return set of fixtures between clubs.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 18 weeks	152	116	143
Score in week 19	10	4	10
Total after 19 weeks	162	120	153

Predictions – Week 20
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Monday
Middlesbrough v Leicester	1-0	1-1	0-2
Everton v Southampton	2-1	2-0	2-0
Man City v Burnley	3-0	3-1	3-0
Sunderland v Liverpool	0-3	1-3	0-2
WBA v Hull	2-0	3-0	2-0
West Ham v Man Utd	2-1	2-2	1-2
Tuesday
Bournemouth v Arsenal	2-2	1-2	0-2
Palace v Swansea	2-0	1-0	2-0
Stoke v Watford	3-1	3-0	2-0
Wednesday
Tottenham v Chelsea	2-2	1-1	2-1

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 24

A healthy half year return beckons from our winning weekly wagers. Now we plan for an equally prosperous new year.

Fancy A Bet

It was obvious wasn’t it? So obvious that I thought that it wouldn’t happen. But it did. Ayew scored the first goal in the game at Swansea. His first goal for us was against his old club. But we had success yet again with the following bet last weekend:

8 points on West Ham to beat Swansea @7/4 (22)

Our balance stood at 125 points, and with this win has risen to the maximum snooker break of 147 points.

This time we’ll stick to a similar formula that has been successful in recent weeks, although our good run must come to an end soon. Or will it?

8 points on West Ham to beat Leicester @11/4 (30)
6 points on the game to end in a score draw @10/3 (26)
1 point on a correct score forecast of 2-2 @12/1 (13)
1 point on Cresswell to score the first goal and West Ham to win 2-1 @200/1 (201)
1 point on West Ham to win and Cresswell to score anytime @30/1 (31)

Total stake 17 points, reducing our balance to 130 points. Potential returns if correct in brackets.

It is about time that Aaron Cresswell scored. What are the chances?

West Ham at Leicester preview

Can we make it four wins in a row as we reach the half-way point in the season?

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This is our nineteenth Premier League match, and at the end of the game we will have reached the mid-point of the league season. A season that we started poorly, but one where our results have picked up in recent weeks. Leicester were, of course, the very unlikely (5000-1) winners of the Premier League last season, but this has been a much tougher campaign for them. Who would have thought that, despite some of our relatively indifferent performances, we would be sitting above last season’s champions at the half-way point in the season?

The last time we played at Leicester was when we visited them in April. Despite being one down at half time to a goal from Vardy we fought back in the second half (after our old friend Mr Moss had reduced Leicester to ten men by sending Vardy off for diving). Carroll scored from a penalty (Noble had already been substituted when it was awarded), and then Cresswell hit a superb strike to put us 2-1 ahead. It was quite simple now, wasn’t it? 2-1 up, 11 playing against 10, we were about to record yet another famous victory away from home against a top side. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Everton – none of them could beat us on their own ground, and we had recorded four wins and two draws against those six teams. Now we were about to beat the champions elect.

But hold on a minute. This is West Ham we are talking about. We have to expect the unexpected. Mr. Moss had indicated that there would be a minimum of four minutes to be added. With around 20 seconds of the four minutes remaining the ball broke to Valencia. It should have been easy to run down the clock, shouldn’t it? But oh no, Valencia lost possession, and with 3 minutes 56 seconds showing on the injury time clock, Carroll innocuously brushed against a Leicester player on the edge of the area.

Of course, referees never give decisions to even up potential mistakes that have made earlier in a game, or to try to appease the home supporters, so Mr. Moss must have been absolutely certain that a foul had been committed and duly awarded Leicester a penalty in the dying seconds. Of course, the same referee had “previous” in this respect, giving Tottenham a penalty in the fifth minute of injury time the previous season, allowing them to draw 2-2 against us. I guess the biggest disappointment for me was our inability to hold on to a lead, something we have been guilty of several times this season, too.

Despite their indifferent league form, Leicester comfortably (and surprisingly?) have reached the last 16 of the Champions League, which is no mean feat. But in their attempt to retain their title, they currently sit in sixteenth place in the league on 17 points, just three points above the drop zone, and trailing us by five points. They have won just four league games, beating three teams that we have also beaten, Swansea, Burnley and Palace, in addition to what was arguably their best performance of the season, a 4-2 victory over Manchester City, where at one stage they led by four goals, before conceding twice in the last ten minutes.

We have a very good record in games against Leicester, and in our last 41 league meetings they have only beaten us on nine occasions, with six games ending as draws. I fancy us to extend our good run with another victory, to set us up nicely for an improved second half of the season. 25 points from 19 games seemed an unthinkable proposition just a month ago. A victory in this game will bring us up to that level. What are the chances?