I Wouldn’t Bet On It 22

Remaining cautious after another nice little earner.

Fancy A Bet

Success on Wednesday evening yet again with the following bet:

12 points on West Ham to win at 4/6 (20).

Our balance was down to 120 points after placing the bet, but our win of 20 points increases our total to 140.

West Ham are doing well for us, but I am still not going to be tempted to stake too big.

So the main bet for Saturday is 13 points on West Ham to win the game @8/13 (21)

With two fun bets:

1 point on West Ham to win 2-1 and Andy Carroll to score the first goal @ 35/1 (36)
1 point on West Ham to win 3-1 and Andy Carroll to score the first goal @ 55/1 (56)

Total stake = 15 points; cumulative balance 125.

Potential returns if correct in brackets.

What are the chances?

Matchday: West Ham host Hull Tigers

Sexy football, six on the bounce and the ghost of Pottsy.

West Ham HullIf a restaurant told you that they weren’t too bothered about the food that they served up as all they were interested in was getting their hygiene licence renewed would you still be tempted to go along?  I don’t think I would and so was surprised to hear so many at the club extolling the win ugly approach after the Burnley game and telling us that there would be no ‘sexy’ football for the time being.  Possibly the comments were taken out of context as we seem to be a favourite target in the press for negative stories right now, but even so as a message to give it is an injudicious one.  I am not even sure that is ‘sexy’ that we are looking for but neither is it grandma’s bloomers; most fans would, I believe, happily settle for organisation, passion, commitment, effort and decisiveness.  Press home the advantage don’t retreat and attempt to defend it.

A former corpulent, ear-cupping manager once stated that league position was directly related to the amount of money that was available to a football club.  For once, there was probably a lot of truth in what he said and, as such, should see us in a regular battle for 7th or 8th place with Everton.  Anything less then the club and management are relatively under-performing.  Floundering outside the top 10 must certainly be regarded as failure.

That would be brilliant of course. We spoke about this couple of games in the period when we played against Spurs, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool. It was an extremely difficult schedule. That period came and we started with three points and we have a really good chance (on Saturday). Nothing can give you confidence better than victories.

– Slaven Bilic on the chance of back to back victories

Still onwards and upwards and today we have an opportunity to create a little daylight between the basement sides by seeing off the visit of Hull City Tigers.  Hull’s owners seem to be doing everything in their power to get the club relegated and hopefully we can contribute to the cause.  Six points from their first two games followed by six from the next fourteen is less than impressive.    They have lost six away games on the bounce and have failed to score in any of the last four.  What could possibly go wrong today?

Head to Head

West Ham have a 100% record in the last 6 home matches against Hull scoring 19 goals in the process and conceding just 3.  The first game in that sequence was, of course, the 7-1 thrashing in October 1990 which included Steve Potts solitary Hammer’s goal in 463 appearances.  Maybe even Simone Zaza could tuck one away today!

P

W

D

L

F

A

Sequence

Home

21

11

8

2

44

18

WWWWWW

Away

21

4

10

7

22

30

DLWDLD

 

42

15

19

9

66

48

 

Team News

One major disappointment this season is that we don’t appear to have a definite style of play; the approach to any game gives the impression of being unplanned and arbitrary.

The website whoscored.com sums up our style as follows:

Very Strong: Attacking set pieces
Strong: Shooting from direct free kicks
Strong: Defending set pieces
Very Weak: Defending against through ball attacks
Very Weak: Defending against attacks down the wings
Very Weak: Protecting the lead
Weak: Avoiding individual errors
Weak: Defending against long shots

Add to this that a greater percentage of our goals have come from set pieces than any other team in the Premier League and it does not paint a rosy picture of sexy football at any time during the season.

We go there full of life. We’re on the front foot. Yes we’ve lost games but my players are putting everything into their chance in the Premier League. We just need to get a bit lucky if we can.

– Mike Phelan

With no changes in the injury situation it is probable that we will see the same starting XI that featured in midweek meaning perseverance with the flaky 3 at the back and seeking out Andy’s head up front.  Despite my misgivings I expect that we will finally record consecutive wins at the London Stadium.

There was good news about Reece Oxford signing a new contract and let’s hope that he gets some game time once he has recovered from injury.

The Man in the Middle

Lee Mason from Lancashire makes his first acquaintance with the Hammers this year but was in charge of two previous Hull defeats (including the 6-1 loss at Bournemouth). Last term he was in charge of our away draw to Swansea and the win at West Brom.  In 9 games this season Mason has issued 33 Yellow and 1 Red card.

The Lawro Challenge – Week 17

The challenge to out-predict the long time BBC pundit moves towards the halfway point.

Lawro Crystal BallSixteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 160 matches. In Week 16, Rich scored 8 points, Geoff 13 points, and Lawro 10 points. This was Geoff’s best performance of the season so far, and could be the beginning of a rise to challenge for the lead. Or it could be just a one-off. Rich got 8 results correct but he could not get any correct scores. Lawro got six correct results, two of which were also the correct score. Geoff got seven correct results, three of which were also the correct score. In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now march on to week 17. Just two weeks after this one to the halfway stage.

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Total after 15 weeks

130

81

114

Score in week 16

8

13

10

Total after 16 weeks

138

94

124

 

 

 

 

Predictions – Week 17

 

 

 

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

SATURDAY

 

 

 

Palace v Chelsea

0-2

0-2

1-1

Middlesbrough v Swansea

2-1

1-1

2-0

Stoke v Leicester

2-1

2-2

1-2

Sunderland v Watford

3-2

2-1

2-1

West Ham v Hull

3-1

2-0

2-0

West Brom v Man United

1-1

1-1

0-2

SUNDAY

 

 

 

Bournemouth v Southampton

2-1

2-2

2-0

Man City v Arsenal

2-2

2-1

1-1

Tottenham v Burnley

3-0

4-0

2-0

MONDAY

 

 

 

Everton v Liverpool

1-2

2-1

1-1

West Ham 1 v 0 Burnley

A review of the Burnley game and a look forward to Hull

Embed from Getty Images

Once again the poetry was successful as we scraped home by a single goal against Burnley on Wednesday evening. We started the game reasonably well and were just about good value for the single goal half-time lead. But Burnley came back strongly in the second half, and but for some woeful finishing, plus some fine goalkeeping from Randolph, they could well have got a (deserved?) point from the game. I’m not quite sure what happened in the second half, but we sat back rather than going for a second goal which would have made the game more comfortable. A 2-0 lead and we would have been in a strong position. Although one pundit on TV recently said that a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous lead to have. Poppycock. It is far better to be leading by two goals rather than one. A 1-0 lead, or being one goal ahead is far more dangerous in my eyes.

Who were our best performers on the night? Always subjective, but for me Randolph, Reid, Obiang and Carroll stood out. I’d like to think we would be beating teams like Burnley with greater ease, but with our current relatively poor form, and lack of confidence, I guess we should just be satisfied with three points and move on to the next game. Two seasons ago when we last played Burnley at home we won the game 1-0 with a Mark Noble penalty. This time he failed to score from the spot, but the rebound fell kindly and he had an easy task to slot the ball home.

So that is now one game down of the four easier (on paper) fixtures to take us to the end of 2016, that everyone has been going on about, and we now have a four point cushion ahead of the relegation places. Just a few days ago we were in the bottom three. The visit of Hull gives us the opportunity to stretch the cushion further.

Hull began the season with two victories, against champions Leicester, and Swansea, meaning they were joint top with six points after just two games. However, in the subsequent 14 games they have won only once (v Southampton), and drawn three times, v Burnley, West Brom, and Palace. Their 12 points leaves them in the relegation zone, and they have the worst goal difference in the whole of the Premier League by a long way (-21). They have scored 14 goals and conceded 35. This is mainly as a result of some heavy defeats, 3-0 to both Sunderland and Tottenham (on Wednesday), 4-1 to Arsenal, 5-1 to Liverpool, and 6-1 at Bournemouth being the biggest.

We are even stronger favourites to win the game than we were against Burnley, but that was a struggle. How will we fare this time? It’s hard to know, but perhaps our first win in a few games will give us the confidence to progress, and possibly play with a bit less fear than seemed to be the case in midweek, especially in the second half, when we began to get a bit jittery. I’m confident that we can continue to push on now, and despite our less than convincing win on Wednesday, the optimist in me predicts a 3-1 victory.

What are the chances?

5 Observations from West Ham v Burnley

Welcome points from a largely forgettable encounter against Burnley.

5 Things WHUA Win is Just a Win

At the end of the day it is 3 points earned.   When we look back on the ‘lost’ 2016/17 season in years to come it will be recorded as a match won during a period where we rose from relegation possibles to mid-table obscurity.  Just as the Noble strike will be recorded as a goal scored rather than a penalty missed, the manner of the victory in a forgettable game will be erased from the memory of even those who attended.  There was no mass booing and ear-cupping this time around to trigger future memories and indifferent refereeing and an aggrieved losing manager are far too common to resonate past the next few matches.  Four points in the last two games has given Slaven Bilic a welcome boost in the quest for 20 points by the end of the year and a chance of continued employment.

Closing Out Matches in a Game of Two Halves

Apparently West Ham have lost 12 points from winning positions this season  which, had we not, would have had us riding high in 6th place in the Premier League table.  In the post-match interviews Bilic was bemoaning the ability of the team to close out games and, for me, this raises the question of what his own role and influence in these circumstances?   One wonders what his instructions were at half time and to what degree the players failed to execute them.  There were a few home games last season where we looked on fire in the first half but turned into a damp squib in the second.  When you have been comfortably on top (but only have a slender lead to show for it) it is rarely a good plan to surrender the initiative and invite the opposition to attack.  There is far too much caution shown in these types of home fixtures for my liking.

Keeping Possession

West Ham are very bad at keeping possession of the ball.  This is not the same topic as whether there is any relationship between amount of possession and winning a game.  It is well known that when Leicester won the Premier League last season they recorded less overall possession than the opposition in many games.  But when they got the ball they moved it quickly and incisively.  When they didn’t have the ball they defended as a team and were prepared to let their opponents play around in harmless areas.  West Ham’s problem is that once in possession they so frequently give the ball away cheaply.  There are two key elements that result in effective passing; good pass execution (speed and accuracy) and range of options available for the player with the ball.  As a rule we are slow to exploit and create space and when there are no options the ball goes backwards to keeper or defender who lumps it forward in desperation.  In almost all the games I have seen this season we have been second best at passing and moving over the course of a game.

You’re Shaking My Confidence Daily

Much is made of confidence in football so I guess it must be a big deal.  A run of defeats or playing in a new stadium can dent a team’s confidence; a point at Liverpool can boost it but failure to hold on to a lead can damage it again.  We hear that such a player is a confidence player and just needs a goal to fire him in to action.  I have to disclose a touch of scepticism here although I will be delighted if an ‘ugly’ win over Burnley can help to ‘kick-start’ the season, as they say.  These are highly paid players who are meant to represent the very top of their profession; are they really so collectively fragile?  Could you explain away your own lack of performance at work as a lack of confidence?  To admit to lower motivation and fitness levels, compared to most opponents, would be more honest and believable.  If confidence really is an issue then it is something for the coaching staff to address; not some an unmanageable external factor in the hands of the footballing gods.

Big Man Andy Carroll

I am pleased to see Andy Carroll back to fitness (crosses fingers, buys lucky heather, finds rabbits foot, avoids ladders and path crossing black cats).  When Zaza has set the bar so low then anything is an improvement as far as our striking problem is concerned but Carroll is a massive upgrade.  Bilic says he is a big fan of Carroll and considers that he is great in the air and on the ground.  Difficult to argue with the first part of the assessment but the second is something of a stretch or, at least, unproven.  He does provide a physical presence and will always be a danger at crosses and set pieces but he is unlikely to contribute much in slick passing breakaways or intricate penalty box interplay.  The danger is that his strength in the air becomes our one and only tactic (other than trying to win a free kick) and although he can be effective in the right setup I don’t believe that is as a lone striker.  To be effective he needs someone alongside to feed off the knock-downs.  Unfortunately our midfield is too weak to release someone to play as a second striker.

Matchday: West Ham host Burnley

With Dimitri Payet having spent the week on the massage table are we due a happy ending tonight?

West Ham BurnleyAlthough Burnley have been only occasional visitors to the Premier League their years spent in the top division of English football (they were a founder member of the Football League in 1888) is roughly similar to our own. In the days of the leveller playing field they actually managed to win the First Division title on two occasions; initially in 1921 and then again, under manager Harry Potts, when they become the first of 8 different sides to be crowned champions during the 1960’s. The interesting feature of that campaign was that all other games had already been completed while Burnley had an outstanding fixture at Manchester City to fulfil.  The Clarets needed to win to become champions which they duly did to step into top spot for the first time that season.  As an aside only 9 of the 22 teams that competed in that 1959/60 season are in the Premier League today.

Current manager Sean Dyche is adhering to the more parochial standards of bygone days by employing a largely British and Irish group of players in his squad. Of the starting XI in their match against Bournemouth at the weekend only Steven Defour was born overseas – although Ashley Barnes and Scott Arfield have played their international football for Austria and Canada respectively.  No disruption by the African Cup of Nations for them.

We need to beat Burnley and we need the points. It has been a difficult schedule and we have been waiting for these home games.

– Slaven Bilic

Dyche’s well organised side have made a respectable start to the season based on impressive home form.  On their travels they have taken just a single point from 6 games and scored just the one goal.

Having negotiated the run of ‘difficult’ games West Ham now embark on a series of supposed ‘winnable’ fixtures between now and the New Year.  A hard earned point at Liverpool will hopefully provide the impetus to collect several more over the next two weeks.

Head to Head

A generally even head to head record where history has favoured the home team but can that run be extended to the new home venue?  Of the last 12 encounters, West Ham have won 7 times with 2 defeats and 3 draws.

P W D L F A
Home 39 23 8 8 76 49 WLWWWD
Away 39 6 10 23 55 88 WWDLWD
78 29 18 31 131 137

Team News

Cheikhou Kouyate may return for the Hammers and if this is the case I expect Bilic will, despite everything, retain the 3 at the back formation with Kouyate teaming up with Reid and Ogbonna. The remainder of the lineup will then depend on who starts as lone striker. After two appearances off the bench it may well be time to start with Andy Carroll. Failing that it is likely to be Michail Antonio which would be preferable to playing your leading scorer at right back.

We know we have to go down there and give an even better performance because we haven’t got a win away from home yet. We know we’ve got to correct it.

– Sean Dyche

I would much prefer a back four even if we have no proper right back solution. I don’t know what happened to Arbeloa at the weekend (he is not shown as injured) but I would plump for Fernandes at right back who looks much more of a footballer than hapless Havard does – I wonder what Adrian is like at right back! All a little academic a I believe Slav is smitten with his Back 3 plus two wing backs tactic.

The remainder of the midfield will likely be Obiang, Payet, Noble and one of Lanzini/ Ayew. I have read that Dimi has been having special personal service treatment on the massage table this week and so if all goes well we can expect for a happy ending to the evening.

Slav’s Team

My Team

 

Randolph

Kouyate   Reid   Ogbonna

Antonio   Obiang   Noble   Creswell

Ayew            Payet

Carroll

 

Randolph

Fernandes   Reid   Ogbonna   Cresswell

Antonio   Kouyate    Obiang   Payet

Lanzini

Carroll

 

Man in the Middle

The whistle blower tonight is Robert “Bobby” Madely from West Yorkshire.  This is his second visit to the London Stadium this season having previously officiated in the win against Sunderland.  We have yet to lose in a game where Madely has been the ref including a Capital One cup win at Burnley in 2013.  In Madely’s 13 games this season he has brandished 64 Yellow and 2 Red cards.

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 21

Success at the weekend urges a little caution for the midweek flutter.

Fancy A Bet

Success at the weekend with the following bets:

10 points on West Ham to win or draw the game @5/2 (35).
1 point on a 2-2 draw @16/1 (17)

Our balance was down to 80 points after placing the bets, but our winnings of 52 points increase our total to 132, making us 32 points up for the season. In my case at £1 per point I am £32 up.

The temptation is to stake big following a good win, but that is an easy trap to fall into. I will resist going too mad, so just a simple bet on the Burnley game. Potential return if correct in brackets.

12 points on West Ham to win at 4/6 (20).

For the first time in a while I am not placing a bet on Pedro Obiang to score, so perhaps he will?

What are the chances?

West Ham v Burnley preview

‘Twas The Night Before Burnley!

51tht5c1y0l

Once again I will return to my rhyming theme as it has generally brought us a good result or a fine performance. I have written a number of poems based on the famous ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas. I included similar poems in my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, which is available in paperback or Kindle on Amazon. So if you are looking for a last minute Christmas present for a West Ham fan, then look no further. I have been a regular at Upton Park for almost sixty years, and the book chronicles the last famous season there.

‘Twas the night before Burnley, you couldn’t hear a sound
Just wait till tomorrow, for the noise in the ground;

Three tough league away games plus one in the cup;
A home game v Arsenal, and they’re on the up;
Performances were mixed, for a short time we fell
Into the bottom three, cos we weren’t doing well;

At Tottenham we led with minutes to go,
But two very late goals dealt us a blow;

The Old Trafford league game, we started full throttle;
And Jose was sent off for kicking a bottle.
Sakho was back in the lone striker role;
With two minutes gone, he headed a goal;
Zlatan equalised, I thought we were gone;
But 1-1 was OK, we were able to hold on.

A few days later, they opened the scoring,
In the EFL cup it was getting quite boring;
But then at his old ground up popped Ashley Fletcher;
But the second half was awful, the less said the better;

Arsenal at home, it wasn’t much fun;
Sanchez was brilliant, they beat us five-one.

At Anfield one down, looked like we were done,
But a Payet free kick and the score was one-one.
Antonio pounced to give us the lead;
Nordtveit was given a rollicking by Reid;
Then a simple mistake, we’ve made a quite a few;
A Randolph disaster, Origi, two-two.
Many years at Anfield, t’was always the same;
But in the last couple we’ve given them a game.

So now we face Burnley, then Hull City too;
Six points for the taking? I hope it comes true;
However we play, I’ll take two wins gladly,
It won’t be that easy they haven’t played badly;

At Turf Moor they’re good, five wins to their name;
But out on the road, it’s not been the same;
Just one point away, they’ve found it quite hell;
On other teams grounds, they’ve not played that well;

They’re keeper’s a good’un, he’s known as Tom Heaton,
But six away games, and five games been beaten;
Fifteen conceded, and only scored one;
And that was a pen, they’ve not had much fun;

I do like their colours, I’ll give them their due;
For this game they’ll change out of claret and blue;
Today I’m convinced we’ll go for the kill;
We’ll be at our best and beat them four-nil.

Counting Sheep – 12 – The Letters (V,W, X, Y, Z)

Finishing off the last of the series of alphabetically themed West Ham teams.

Counting SheepIt had been a really good summer this year with hot days and warm nights. I began this series of articles by describing how, whenever I have trouble going off to sleep when the night temperatures are high, I think of teams of West Ham players. So I forget the idea of counting sheep and try to select a West Ham team that I have seen whose surnames all start with the same letter. It was harder, in fact impossible, for me to select players beginning with a single letter in many cases, so I’ve combined the letters in some cases to form a single team.

For the final article in my feature I now move on to the very end of the alphabet and have chosen a team whose surnames begin with V, W, X, Y or Z. Not surprisingly I couldn’t come up with any players beginning with X. But less surprisingly no Ys either! Can somebody help me out here? I honestly cannot remember ever seeing a West Ham player whose surname begins with Y.

So far I’ve picked eleven teams, “B”, “C”, “D”, “F”, “S”, a combined “G” and “H”, a combined “J”, “K” and “L”, a combined “M” and “N”, a combined “P” and “Q”, a combined “R” and “T”, and “Vowels”. So here is my V/W/X/Y/Z team (with no X or Y!) in a 3-3-4 attacking formation:

Walker
Walford,
Ward (E)
Winterburn
Woosnam
Ward (M)
Van der Elst
Wright (I)
Zamora
Zaza
Vaz Te

Players left out include Richard Wright, Williamson, Whitton, Whitbread, Valencia and Zarate

I’ve probably missed someone who I should have remembered. Would you have selected any of the players that I left out of my final XI?

And who would manage the V/W/X/Y/X team? It has to be Zola.

So I started at the beginning of the alphabet and worked my way through selecting twelve teams to help me drop off to sleep. I was disappointed to only manage five teams with single letters, but it was a fruitful exercise, albeit much harder than I thought it would be when I began. It helped me drop off to sleep, worked my brain, and brought back memories of the best players I’ve seen playing for West Ham. The summer is now behind us so going off to sleep is not a problem. But if I can’t drop off I can always revert to counting sheep.

The Lawro Challenge – Week 16

Midweek madness takes hold as we continue to battle Lawro for the prediction crown.

Lawro Crystal BallFifteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 150 matches. In Week 15, Rich again came out on top scoring 8 points while Geoff and Lawro could only scrape together 4 points each. In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

The predictions for the pre-Christmas midweek games are below anticipating a continuation of the recent Premier League goal-rush.  Even the ultra cautious Lawro, who rarely expects any team to score more than two, has pushed the boat out in the spirit of seasonal exuberance.  Whether his new found daring can make any inroads on Rich’s lead in the predictions table remains to be seen.

     Rich    Geoff    Lawro
Total after 14 weeks     122     77      110
Score in week 15         8       4          4
Total after 15 weeks     130     81      114
       
Predictions – Week 16      
     Rich    Geoff    Lawro
TUESDAY      
Bournemouth v Leicester      2-1     1-2      0-2
Everton v Arsenal      1-1     1-3      1-1
WEDNESDAY      
Middlesbrough v Liverpool      1-2     0-2      0-2
Sunderland v Chelsea      0-2     0-1      0-2
West Ham v Burnley      4-0     2-1      2-0
Palace v Man Utd       1-1     1-2      1-2
Man City v Watford      4-0     4-1      3-1
Stoke v Southampton      1-1     1-0      2-1
Tottenham v Hull      4-0     3-0      3-0
WBA v Swansea      2-1     2-0      1-1