Category: Betting

Middlesbrough let us down last weekend, so our balance is now down to 100.1.

Today we’ll have some fun bets on West Ham v Sunderland:

22 points on West Ham to win @8/11 (38)
1 point on West Ham to win both halves @4/1 (5)
1 point on West Ham to win 3-1 @13/1 (14)
1 point on HT 1-0 FT 3-1 to West Ham @50-1 (51)
1 point on Antonio to score the first goal @13/2 (7.5)
1 point on Antonio first goal & score 3-1 @66-1 (67)
1 point on West Ham to score 3 or more goals @5/2 (3.5)
1 point on West Ham to win by exactly 2 goals @4/1 (5)
1 point on Obiang to score anytime & West Ham to win @10/1 (11)

Total stake 30 points.

If West Ham win the game then we are definitely up on the day.

But, if Antonio scores the first goal of the game, West Ham lead 1-0 at half time, West Ham win the game 3-1, and Obiang scores one of the second half goals, then our stake will win us over 200 points. Unlikely I know. But a bit of fun nonetheless.

What are the chances?

If you thought that Cresswell was unlucky to be sent off, we were equally unfortunate with our two accumulator bets, both of which failed by just one match. Because of the guarantee, with just one incorrect result in each, we get our stake returned.

For the first we staked 1 point on the following 5 teams to win at accumulated odds of 9.69/1: Chelsea, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Manchester City, Stoke. Manchester City were the only team to let us down by drawing 1-1 with Everton, but the unlucky aspect is that they missed two penalties in the game.

But if you think we were unfortunate there, we were even more unlucky with our more adventurous bet which staked 1 point on the following 10 teams to win at accumulated odds of 55.54/1: Brighton, Newcastle, Norwich, Bolton, Charlton, Carlisle, Doncaster, Aberdeen, Celtic, Hearts. Nine of the ten teams won. The only game that let us down was where Brighton were 2-1 up against 10-man Preston in the 92^nd minute when they conceded an equaliser. I had £5 on that bet, and it would have returned over £280 if Brighton had hung on. But that’s the way it goes. I got my stake back!

So our balance is 102.1 points, including the two points of free bets which we will use immediately on today’s Premier League games. We’ll put one point on Middlesbrough to beat Watford at 13/10 (potential return 2.3), and the other point on Middlesbrough and Southampton to both win their games at a double of 2.22/1 (3.22).

What are the chances?

Last time we tried out the Betfred “Goals Galore” bonus coupon for the second time. It pays fixed odds based on both teams scoring at least one goal in a match. Depending upon the number of games you choose, fixed odds are paid at varying rates. On their Goals Galore Bonus coupon, which we tried, they pay 9/2 for 3 correct, 9/1 for 4 correct, and 16/1 for 5 correct, going right up to 5000/1 for 15 correct.

We tried two batches of four games, each at 9-1, and then all eight games at 100-1. So we needed both teams to score in the following games:

Group One:
West Ham v Middlesbrough, Leeds v Barnsley, Preston v Villa, Sheffield W v Brighton

Group Two:
Reading v Derby, Rotherham v Newcastle, Bury v Scunthorpe, Chesterfield v Bradford C

We staked one point stake on each group, and one point stake on all eight games. Total = 3 points. Just three teams let us down by not scoring; Villa, Rotherham and Chesterfield.

And to finish we staked five points on West Ham to end their poor run in the game against Middlesbrough, at 11/10 on a win, but despite Payet’s wonder goal we only drew.

So we lost 8 points on the day which brought our balance down to 103.1.

This week we’ll try a couple of accumulators, which have a guarantee that with just one incorrect result we get our stake returned.

Firstly, we’ll stake 1 point on the following 5 teams to win this weekend at accumulated odds of 9.69/1: Chelsea, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Manchester City, Stoke.

Secondly, we’ll try a more adventurous bet by staking 1 point on the following 10 teams to win this weekend at accumulated odds of 55.54/1: Brighton, Newcastle, Norwich, Bolton, Charlton, Carlisle, Doncaster, Aberdeen, Celtic, Hearts.

And finally a fun bet on the Palace v West Ham game. On so many occasions recently there have been 4 goals in the game when we’ve met Palace, so I’ll stake 1 point on a 2-2 draw at 11/1.

Total stake = 3 points. New balance = 100.1 points. Potential return = 76.23 points

What are the chances?

In midweek I continued with the three goals or more bets that were so successful last weekend, and as I expected the EFL Cup to produce goals I placed two four-game accumulators, one on Tuesday and one on Wednesday.

On Tuesday I staked a 1 point accumulator on the games at Forest, Brighton, Everton and Leicester at 7.85/1 (8.85). We were let down by just one game (Everton v Norwich) where only two goals were scored. On Wednesday I staked a 1 point accumulator on the games at Swansea, Tottenham, West Ham and Northampton at 5/1 (6). Once again we were let down by just one game, the one at the London Stadium! Our guarantee was that if just one of the nights was successful then we were in profit, but despite six of the eight producing three or more goals, we just missed out.

Our balance is now 115.1.

This week we will try something a little different that still relies on goals. Betfred offer a number of “Goals Galore” coupons that pay fixed odds based on both teams scoring at least one goal in a match. Depending upon the number of games you choose, fixed odds are paid at varying rates. On their Goals Galore Bonus coupon, which we shall try out this week, they pay 9/2 for 3 correct, 9/1 for 4 correct, and 16/1 for 5 correct, going right up to 5000/1 for 15 correct.

So, dipping our toe in the water for the first time we’ll try a 3, 4, and 5 match entry with 2 points staked on the 3 matches, and one each on the 4 and 5 matches, making a total stake of 4 points. I haven’t tried this bet before so we’ll keep the stakes low to begin with.

So 2 points for both teams to score in the following 3 matches at 9/2

Bournemouth v Everton

Brighton v Barnsley

Bolton v Bradford

Remember we need both teams to score in each game to win (11).

For the 4 match entry we’ll add QPR v Birmingham to the above 3 matches, so 1 point staked at 9/1 (10).

For the 5 match entry we’ll add Fulham v Bristol City to the above 4 matches, so 1 point staked at 16/1 (17).

So if both teams score in the first three matches we win 11 points. If the first three come in, and the fourth match also has both teams scoring we will add 10 more points. And if both teams score in the first 4 matches and the fifth comes up trumps we add another 17 points.

If both teams score in all 5 matches we win a total of 38 points, but if any of the six teams in the first 3 games fail to score then we lose.

Total stake 4 points. Balance now 111.1. What are the chances?

You may recall that last weekend I introduced a variation into our football betting. I looked at the odds for the number of goals scored in games, and I had a look at the odds of there being at least 3 goals in the game in each of the Premier League games. I think I chose the right weekend to do so!

The Premier League kept up the record of being the division where this happens the most – before last weekend there had been three or more goals in the game in 21 of the season’s 40 games. The table below shows the results of the games alongside the odds that were on offer.

		Odds
Chelsea v Liverpool	1-2	4/6	*
Hull v Arsenal	1-4	8/11	*
Leicester v Burnley	3-0	4/5	*
Man C v Bournemouth	4-1	1/2	*
WBA v WHU	4-2	5/4	*
Everton v Middlesbrough	3-1	Evens	*
Watford v Man U	3-1	5/6	*
Palace v Stoke	4-1	6/5	*
Southampton v Swansea	1-0	Evens
Spurs v Sunderland	1-0	4/6

In the weekend’s ten games, 8 had three or more goals. The only games that didn’t manage this were the ones at Southampton and Tottenham. So the total is now 29 out of 50 games (58%). The cumulative odds of those eight games having three or more goals was over 141/1.

The game that really took my eye was the one involving our trip to West Brom, which gave the most generous odds, meaning that this was the game expected to produce the least goals. This was not surprising in that West Brom (managed by Pulis) had scored the least goals in the Premier League this season before the weekend. I felt that it had the potential for goals with our poor defending of late, plus the need for us to rally after poor recent performances. As it was the requisite three goals were all scored by half time, unfortunately all into our net!

I staked 16 points on the game to produce three or more goals and this was converted into 36 points. In addition I staked four points on an accumulator for the games at West Brom, Watford, and Manchester City to each have three or more goals at accumulated odds of 6.19/1. We had to wait until ten minutes before the end of the Watford game on Sunday for the third goal for the accumulator to be successful to produce an additional 25.7 points.

Our total stake of 20 points reduced our balance to 55.4, but our 100% success rate won us a total of 61.7 points from our single bet plus the accumulator. Our points balance is now up to 117.1, giving us an increase of 17.1 points on our starting level.

As I expect the EFL Cup (it has had a multitude of names over the years – I remember it most as the basic League Cup) to produce goals I will continue with the same bets that were successful for us this week, with two four-game accumulators each based on there being three goals or more in the matches.

So on Tuesday I shall stake a 1 point accumulator on the games at Forest, Brighton, Everton and Leicester at 7.85/1 (8.85), and on Wednesday a 1 point accumulator on the games at Swansea, Tottenham, West Ham and Northampton at 5/1 (6). Potential winnings are in brackets. I’ve kept the stakes small as the early stages of this cup are unpredictable with teams fielding weakened sides, but we can still have some fun and interest in the games hoping for three or more goals in each of them. Our guarantee is that if just one of the nights is successful then we are in profit.

With 2 points staked our balance is reduced to 115.1 with potential winnings totalling 14.85. What are the chances?

Last week we studied the form and decided that the odds were generous on a West Ham victory against Watford. So we lumped on. As a lifelong fan I should perhaps have known better. With 35 minutes of the game over we looked on course to at least double our stake of 24 points and be showing a healthy profit. If you had looked on the betting exchanges at around 3.35pm you could have virtually named your odds on a Watford victory and there would have been plenty of opportunity to get in excess of 100-1 in-play.

But as we all know it didn’t happen so we lost 24 points, which became 25 when our accumulator failed miserably with just two correct predictions. So our balance now stands at 75.4 points.

Today I’m going to try a different type of football bet. There are so many bets that you can place on football matches these days, and you can have fun trying out some other variations. One that can keep you interested for much of a game is betting on there being at least x number of goals in the game. For the purposes of this week’s betting I’ve had a look at the odds of there being at least 3 goals in the game in each of the Premier League games this weekend.

If you had to guess which of our four main leagues has provided the most games percentage-wise where three or more goals have been scored which one would you go for? The Premier League is at the top – there have been three or more goals in the game in 21 of this season’s 40 games, putting it ahead of the other leagues (the Championship has had the least).

	1	Odds
Chelsea v Liverpool	29	4/6
Hull v Arsenal	22	8/11
Leicester v Burnley	19	4/5
Man C v Bournemouth	23	1/2	*
WBA v WHU	19	5/4	*
Everton v Middlesbrough	17	Evens
Watford v Man U	25	5/6	*
Palace v Stoke	19	6/5
Southampton v Swansea	19	Evens
Spurs v Sunderland	17	4/6

1- total goals scored in the 8 games involving these clubs (4 each) this season

Odds – Paddy Power odds quoted for over 2.5 goals in the game (i.e. 3 or more)

The table above shows you can get even money or better on four of the ten games. Not surprisingly the bookmaker has done its homework and those four games are generally the ones where the teams have scored the least goals. The exception is the Tottenham game where I guess they are expecting more goals than has been scored so far by Spurs in particular.

The game that really took my eye was the one involving our trip to West Brom, which gives the most generous odds, meaning this is the game expected to produce the least goals. This is not surprising in that West Brom (managed by Pulis) have scored the least goals in the Premier League this season with 2 and have only conceded 3, meaning their four games have only had five goals scored in total. On the other hand there have been 14 goals in our games, although we have only scored five of them.

If you study the West Brom recent games, say the last ten of last season and the first four of this, then there have been three goals or more in just 3 of their 14 games! Conversely if you look at the equivalent for West Ham then there have been 3 or more goals in 13 of our last 14 games (the only exception being the home game v Bournemouth this season). If you look at West Brom v West Ham head to head in the twenty-first century, then 9 of the 18 league games played have had three or more goals in them.

It’s very easy to see why this game has been picked out as the one with the least chance of producing at least three goals, but there are factors (mainly West Ham ones) which indicate that this may be a good bet.

I am therefore staking 16 points on our game at West Brom to produce three or more goals (36). In addition I will stake four points on an accumulator for the games at West Brom, Watford, and Manchester City to each have three or more goals at accumulated odds of 6.19/1 (25.7).

The figures in brackets are the potential winnings. Our total stake is 20 points reducing our balance to 55.4. If the three selected games can each produce three or more goals then we would collect 61.7 points from our single bet plus the accumulator.

What are the chances?