Last week we had some fun bets on West Ham v Everton. It all hinged on West Ham winning or drawing the game. If either happened then we were up. But unfortunately we lost so our balance reduced to 100.0, which is exactly where we started.
This week we’ll have a look at our game at home to Stoke. On Paddy Power we were quoted at 21/20 to win, and 13/5 to draw. I fully expect us to win, despite our difficulty in scoring goals, added to the relative ease at which we manage to concede them so far this season.
I also expect Stoke to concede a penalty for blatant holding from a corner. I know that referees appear to have relaxed their early season edict to award penalties in these circumstances, but it is about time we were given a penalty. I therefore expect (well hope anyway) that Mark Noble will score the first goal of the game.
My stake will be:
20 points on a win @21/20 (41)
10 points on a draw @13/5 (36)
1 point Mark Noble to score the first goal @12/1 (13)
1 point on Noble 1st goal and we win 1-0 @60/1 (61)
1 point on Noble 1st goal and we win 2-1 @60/1 (61)
1 point on a 1-0 West Ham victory @15/2 (8.5)
1 point on a 2-1 West Ham victory @15/2 (8.5)
Total stake 35 points, reducing our balance to 65.
If we win or draw the game then we’ll be up on the day. A draw will return 36 points, and a win would be 41. If we win 1-0 or 2-1 then our return will be 49.5. But if Noble scores the first goal, and the game ends 1-0 or 2-1 to us, then our return will be 123.5 points. What are the chances?
If the unthinkable happens and we lose the game, then I’ll be more upset about the loss of a potential three points, than losing our stake of 35 points.