I Wouldn’t Bet On It 9 – The Recovery!!

The weekend’s winnings weighing down our pockets we throw some loose change at the EFL Cup.

Fancy A BetYou may recall that last weekend I introduced a variation into our football betting. I looked at the odds for the number of goals scored in games, and I had a look at the odds of there being at least 3 goals in the game in each of the Premier League games. I think I chose the right weekend to do so!

The Premier League kept up the record of being the division where this happens the most – before last weekend there had been three or more goals in the game in 21 of the season’s 40 games. The table below shows the results of the games alongside the odds that were on offer.

 

 

Odds

 

Chelsea v Liverpool

1-2

4/6

*

Hull v Arsenal

1-4

8/11

*

Leicester v Burnley

3-0

4/5

*

Man C v Bournemouth

4-1

1/2

*

WBA v WHU

4-2

5/4

*

Everton v Middlesbrough

3-1

Evens

*

Watford v Man U

3-1

5/6

*

Palace v Stoke

4-1

6/5

*

Southampton v Swansea

1-0

Evens

 

Spurs v Sunderland

1-0

4/6

 

In the weekend’s ten games, 8 had three or more goals. The only games that didn’t manage this were the ones at Southampton and Tottenham. So the total is now 29 out of 50 games (58%). The cumulative odds of those eight games having three or more goals was over 141/1.

The game that really took my eye was the one involving our trip to West Brom, which gave the most generous odds, meaning that this was the game expected to produce the least goals. This was not surprising in that West Brom (managed by Pulis) had scored the least goals in the Premier League this season before the weekend. I felt that it had the potential for goals with our poor defending of late, plus the need for us to rally after poor recent performances. As it was the requisite three goals were all scored by half time, unfortunately all into our net!

I staked 16 points on the game to produce three or more goals and this was converted into 36 points. In addition I staked four points on an accumulator for the games at West Brom, Watford, and Manchester City to each have three or more goals at accumulated odds of 6.19/1. We had to wait until ten minutes before the end of the Watford game on Sunday for the third goal for the accumulator to be successful to produce an additional 25.7 points.

Our total stake of 20 points reduced our balance to 55.4, but our 100% success rate won us a total of 61.7 points from our single bet plus the accumulator. Our points balance is now up to 117.1, giving us an increase of 17.1 points on our starting level.

As I expect the EFL Cup (it has had a multitude of names over the years – I remember it most as the basic League Cup) to produce goals I will continue with the same bets that were successful for us this week, with two four-game accumulators each based on there being three goals or more in the matches.

So on Tuesday I shall stake a 1 point accumulator on the games at Forest, Brighton, Everton and Leicester at 7.85/1 (8.85), and on Wednesday a 1 point accumulator on the games at Swansea, Tottenham, West Ham and Northampton at 5/1 (6). Potential winnings are in brackets. I’ve kept the stakes small as the early stages of this cup are unpredictable with teams fielding weakened sides, but we can still have some fun and interest in the games hoping for three or more goals in each of them. Our guarantee is that if just one of the nights is successful then we are in profit.

With 2 points staked our balance is reduced to 115.1 with potential winnings totalling 14.85. What are the chances?