Richard Bennett

The Lawro Challenge – Week 17

The challenge to out-predict the long time BBC pundit moves towards the halfway point.

Lawro Crystal Ball Sixteen rounds of games in the Premier League have now been completed. That means we have now predicted the results of 160 matches. In Week 16, Rich scored 8 points, Geoff 13 points, and Lawro 10 points. This was Geoff’s best performance of the season so far, and could be the beginning of a rise to challenge for the lead. Or it could be just a one-off. Rich got 8 results correct but he could not get any correct scores. Lawro got six correct results, two of which were also the correct score. Geoff got seven correct results, three of which were also the correct score. In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now march on to week 17. Just two weeks after this one to the halfway stage.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 15 weeks	130	81	114
Score in week 16	8	13	10
Total after 16 weeks	138	94	124

Predictions – Week 17
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
SATURDAY
Palace v Chelsea	0-2	0-2	1-1
Middlesbrough v Swansea	2-1	1-1	2-0
Stoke v Leicester	2-1	2-2	1-2
Sunderland v Watford	3-2	2-1	2-1
West Ham v Hull	3-1	2-0	2-0
West Brom v Man United	1-1	1-1	0-2
SUNDAY
Bournemouth v Southampton	2-1	2-2	2-0
Man City v Arsenal	2-2	2-1	1-1
Tottenham v Burnley	3-0	4-0	2-0
MONDAY
Everton v Liverpool	1-2	2-1	1-1

West Ham 1 v 0 Burnley

A review of the Burnley game and a look forward to Hull

Embed from Getty Images

Once again the poetry was successful as we scraped home by a single goal against Burnley on Wednesday evening. We started the game reasonably well and were just about good value for the single goal half-time lead. But Burnley came back strongly in the second half, and but for some woeful finishing, plus some fine goalkeeping from Randolph, they could well have got a (deserved?) point from the game. I’m not quite sure what happened in the second half, but we sat back rather than going for a second goal which would have made the game more comfortable. A 2-0 lead and we would have been in a strong position. Although one pundit on TV recently said that a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous lead to have. Poppycock. It is far better to be leading by two goals rather than one. A 1-0 lead, or being one goal ahead is far more dangerous in my eyes.

Who were our best performers on the night? Always subjective, but for me Randolph, Reid, Obiang and Carroll stood out. I’d like to think we would be beating teams like Burnley with greater ease, but with our current relatively poor form, and lack of confidence, I guess we should just be satisfied with three points and move on to the next game. Two seasons ago when we last played Burnley at home we won the game 1-0 with a Mark Noble penalty. This time he failed to score from the spot, but the rebound fell kindly and he had an easy task to slot the ball home.

So that is now one game down of the four easier (on paper) fixtures to take us to the end of 2016, that everyone has been going on about, and we now have a four point cushion ahead of the relegation places. Just a few days ago we were in the bottom three. The visit of Hull gives us the opportunity to stretch the cushion further.

Hull began the season with two victories, against champions Leicester, and Swansea, meaning they were joint top with six points after just two games. However, in the subsequent 14 games they have won only once (v Southampton), and drawn three times, v Burnley, West Brom, and Palace. Their 12 points leaves them in the relegation zone, and they have the worst goal difference in the whole of the Premier League by a long way (-21). They have scored 14 goals and conceded 35. This is mainly as a result of some heavy defeats, 3-0 to both Sunderland and Tottenham (on Wednesday), 4-1 to Arsenal, 5-1 to Liverpool, and 6-1 at Bournemouth being the biggest.

We are even stronger favourites to win the game than we were against Burnley, but that was a struggle. How will we fare this time? It’s hard to know, but perhaps our first win in a few games will give us the confidence to progress, and possibly play with a bit less fear than seemed to be the case in midweek, especially in the second half, when we began to get a bit jittery. I’m confident that we can continue to push on now, and despite our less than convincing win on Wednesday, the optimist in me predicts a 3-1 victory.

What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 21

Success at the weekend urges a little caution for the midweek flutter.

Fancy A Bet

Success at the weekend with the following bets:

10 points on West Ham to win or draw the game @5/2 (35).
1 point on a 2-2 draw @16/1 (17)

Our balance was down to 80 points after placing the bets, but our winnings of 52 points increase our total to 132, making us 32 points up for the season. In my case at £1 per point I am £32 up.

The temptation is to stake big following a good win, but that is an easy trap to fall into. I will resist going too mad, so just a simple bet on the Burnley game. Potential return if correct in brackets.

12 points on West Ham to win at 4/6 (20).

For the first time in a while I am not placing a bet on Pedro Obiang to score, so perhaps he will?

What are the chances?

West Ham v Burnley preview

‘Twas The Night Before Burnley!

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Once again I will return to my rhyming theme as it has generally brought us a good result or a fine performance. I have written a number of poems based on the famous ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas. I included similar poems in my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, which is available in paperback or Kindle on Amazon. So if you are looking for a last minute Christmas present for a West Ham fan, then look no further. I have been a regular at Upton Park for almost sixty years, and the book chronicles the last famous season there.

‘Twas the night before Burnley, you couldn’t hear a sound
Just wait till tomorrow, for the noise in the ground;

Three tough league away games plus one in the cup;
A home game v Arsenal, and they’re on the up;
Performances were mixed, for a short time we fell
Into the bottom three, cos we weren’t doing well;

At Tottenham we led with minutes to go,
But two very late goals dealt us a blow;

The Old Trafford league game, we started full throttle;
And Jose was sent off for kicking a bottle.
Sakho was back in the lone striker role;
With two minutes gone, he headed a goal;
Zlatan equalised, I thought we were gone;
But 1-1 was OK, we were able to hold on.

A few days later, they opened the scoring,
In the EFL cup it was getting quite boring;
But then at his old ground up popped Ashley Fletcher;
But the second half was awful, the less said the better;

Arsenal at home, it wasn’t much fun;
Sanchez was brilliant, they beat us five-one.

At Anfield one down, looked like we were done,
But a Payet free kick and the score was one-one.
Antonio pounced to give us the lead;
Nordtveit was given a rollicking by Reid;
Then a simple mistake, we’ve made a quite a few;
A Randolph disaster, Origi, two-two.
Many years at Anfield, t’was always the same;
But in the last couple we’ve given them a game.

So now we face Burnley, then Hull City too;
Six points for the taking? I hope it comes true;
However we play, I’ll take two wins gladly,
It won’t be that easy they haven’t played badly;

At Turf Moor they’re good, five wins to their name;
But out on the road, it’s not been the same;
Just one point away, they’ve found it quite hell;
On other teams grounds, they’ve not played that well;

They’re keeper’s a good’un, he’s known as Tom Heaton,
But six away games, and five games been beaten;
Fifteen conceded, and only scored one;
And that was a pen, they’ve not had much fun;

I do like their colours, I’ll give them their due;
For this game they’ll change out of claret and blue;
Today I’m convinced we’ll go for the kill;
We’ll be at our best and beat them four-nil.

Counting Sheep – 12 – The Letters (V,W, X, Y, Z)

Finishing off the last of the series of alphabetically themed West Ham teams.

It had been a really good summer this year with hot days and warm nights. I began this series of articles by describing how, whenever I have trouble going off to sleep when the night temperatures are high, I think of teams of West Ham players. So I forget the idea of counting sheep and try to select a West Ham team that I have seen whose surnames all start with the same letter. It was harder, in fact impossible, for me to select players beginning with a single letter in many cases, so I’ve combined the letters in some cases to form a single team.

For the final article in my feature I now move on to the very end of the alphabet and have chosen a team whose surnames begin with V, W, X, Y or Z. Not surprisingly I couldn’t come up with any players beginning with X. But less surprisingly no Ys either! Can somebody help me out here? I honestly cannot remember ever seeing a West Ham player whose surname begins with Y.

So far I’ve picked eleven teams, “B”, “C”, “D”, “F”, “S”, a combined “G” and “H”, a combined “J”, “K” and “L”, a combined “M” and “N”, a combined “P” and “Q”, a combined “R” and “T”, and “Vowels”. So here is my V/W/X/Y/Z team (with no X or Y!) in a 3-3-4 attacking formation:

Walker
Walford,
Ward (E)
Winterburn
Woosnam
Ward (M)
Van der Elst
Wright (I)
Zamora
Zaza
Vaz Te

Players left out include Richard Wright, Williamson, Whitton, Whitbread, Valencia and Zarate

I’ve probably missed someone who I should have remembered. Would you have selected any of the players that I left out of my final XI?

And who would manage the V/W/X/Y/X team? It has to be Zola.

So I started at the beginning of the alphabet and worked my way through selecting twelve teams to help me drop off to sleep. I was disappointed to only manage five teams with single letters, but it was a fruitful exercise, albeit much harder than I thought it would be when I began. It helped me drop off to sleep, worked my brain, and brought back memories of the best players I’ve seen playing for West Ham. The summer is now behind us so going off to sleep is not a problem. But if I can’t drop off I can always revert to counting sheep.

Liverpool 2 v 2 West Ham – Blowing my own trumpet!

Taking the positives from a hard earned point against Liverpool at Anfield.

Embed from Getty Images

Sometimes in life you have to blow your own trumpet. Well I haven’t actually got a trumpet but you know what I mean. Since the beginning of this season Geoff and I have been writing this weblog and haven’t pulled any punches when writing about our beloved West Ham. But despite our less than convincing start to the season, I have remained optimistic throughout and my optimism was fully justified after our draw at Anfield.

Anybody who has followed our blog will know that there are certain features that are constant. Firstly, we are involved in a prediction competition with Lawro. Secondly, I write a betting column each week. And thirdly, we write a preview of each game that West Ham play.

First things first. If you have read our prediction competition involving Lawro you will know that I am comfortably ahead in our forecasts for the season to date. This, despite the fact that Lawro is actually paid by the BBC to predict the Premier league results each week, probably because they believe he is a so-called expert. If you have followed his predictions you will know that sometimes he has been beaten by celebrities, some of whom confess they know little about the game. Amongst my predictions this week you will also note that I forecast a 2-2 draw at Anfield.

If you follow my betting column you will know that, after this week, I am comfortably in profit for the season to date, even despite some outrageous fun bets. If it hadn’t been for the last two minutes against Tottenham, which I didn’t foresee, then our season profit would have been huge. Nevertheless I was consistent, and believed that we would get at least a draw from our game at Anfield, and a 2-2 scoreline was a good result for the column.

Finally, if you read my preview for this week’s game you will note that I made comments like “What is there to worry about? We faced Liverpool four times last season. We won both league games, drew 0-0 there in the fourth round of the FA Cup, and beat them after extra time in the replay at Upton Park. That is 390 minutes of football, plus injury time, and we scored seven goals to their one. And we finished above them in the league. So why do the bookies make them 3/10 favourites, and offer odds of 9/1 on us winning the game?” I finished by saying “I’ll put my optimistic hat on and say we’ll get a 2-2 draw on Sunday.”

Now forecasting the results of football matches is a bit of a minefield. It’s even harder to predict what West Ham are going to do. You win some and you lose some. Sometimes you win, hence the reason for blowing my own trumpet after this game.

As far as the game goes, then I was extremely disappointed that we conceded a goal in the first five minutes once again. Anybody who read my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, which is available in paperback or Kindle on Amazon, will note that constantly throughout that last famous season at Upton Park, I wrote about our inability to start a game, or indeed to start a second half of a game, on the front foot. And so it proved again, when we even exceeded our first half lapse at the beginning of the second half, by conceding a goal in just two minutes.

Randolph’s lapse was unfortunate and led to calls on social media for Adrian to return to our goal. It is not a belief I share, and I was pleased he had the opportunity for some redemption with a world class save to deny Henderson later in the game.

I note that I also wrote in the preview of this game that “Bournemouth showed us last Sunday that the Liverpool defence can be got at, and their keeper looked very vulnerable.” Payet once again showed his class by scoring from yet another free kick, although I reckon the Liverpool keeper would have been disappointed that his right arm wasn’t stronger, as he should perhaps have kept it out. And Antonio took his goal well, pouncing on a Liverpool defensive lapse, and just for once scoring with his feet and not his head. I liked his post-match interview where he jokingly said that he considered getting down to nod the ball into the goal.

I also noted that the statisticians came up with a new one that I hadn’t seen before “touches in the opposition penalty area”. It showed that Liverpool won this contest 53-5. But whilst it may be an interesting feature for some, the game proved that it really is a meaningless statistic unless you turn those touches into goals.

I’m sure that Mr. Nordveidt, like Messrs. Zaza and Tore amongst others, must have shown some footballing qualities that made us want to buy them in the first place, but to date I haven’t yet seen what they are. I reckon that, despite Mr. Bilic’s admirable qualities as a football manager, which undoubtedly far exceed my own judgement of footballers, I have a better idea as to what makes a decent right back. He persisted with Antonio in this position for far longer than I believe he should have, and his selection of Nordveidt in the full back role leaves me totally bewildered. His positioning is so far out, and Liverpool spotted this in their pre-match planning. It was no surprise to me that their two goals came from attacks down their left flank.

It was good to hear the West Ham away support throughout the game, and in particular their support for the manager, when he has come under so much pressure. Despite his inability to know a right back when he sees one, I hope that he continues to get the support to get us out of the trouble that we are undoubtedly still in. We have just pulled out of the bottom three, and I hope that it is the last time I see a league table this season where we are in it.

When all is considered it was a point well earned, and the players showed a lot of spirit to earn the draw. Let us hope that we now build on that in the relative easier (on paper) four games to come. I’ll keep my optimistic hat on and hope that I get more opportunities to blow my own trumpet in the weeks to come!

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 20

The odds of being struck by lightning twice in your lifetime are 1 in 9 million. It’s still worth a try…….

Fancy A Bet Last week we lost six points in the forlorn hope that we would get at least a draw against Arsenal. We now have 95 points. Despite Liverpool’s second half capitulation at Bournemouth last Sunday, they are still massively odds-on to beat an out of form, and lacking in confidence West Ham team. But then again, they were big odds-on favourites to beat us when we went to Anfield at the end of August 2015.

You will recall what happened then. In the two previous weeks we had lost at home to Leicester and Bournemouth, and prior to the game we hadn’t won at Anfield since September 1963. Gerry and the Pacemakers hadn’t even released You’ll Never Walk Alone when we won that 1963 game 2-1.

But last season, against the odds, we won 3-0 there, and then we beat them 2-0 at Upton Park in the first game of 2016. If I recall correctly they were the only team that we took six points off. We also knocked them out of the FA Cup after a replay. So you would think that we wouldn’t be such enormous underdogs in this Sunday’s game. But of course, anyone who has seen us this season will know why.

However, in a continuation of previous week’s optimism, my main bet this week will be to stake 10 points on West Ham to win or draw the game @5/2 (35). Then a small outlay on the following fun bets:

1 point on West Ham to repeat last season’s 3-0 win @250-1 (251)
1 point on a 2-2 draw @16/1 (17)
1 point on a West Ham win with Lanzini to score anytime @30/1 (31)
1 point on a West Ham win with Obiang to score anytime @90/1 (91)
1 point on West Ham to win the game @9/1 (10)

Our balance is now down to 80 points following this 15 point outlay.

If we win or draw the game we are in profit. In the extremely unlikely event of us winning the game 3-0, including goals from both Lanzini and Obiang, then our return would be 418 points!

What are the chances?

Liverpool Preview

Has the Anfield hoodoo ended or will normal service be resumed this Sunday?

Embed from Getty Images

What is there to worry about? We faced Liverpool four times last season. We won both league games, drew 0-0 there in the fourth round of the FA Cup, and beat them after extra time in the replay at Upton Park. That is 390 minutes of football, plus injury time, and we scored seven goals to their one. And we finished above them in the league. So why do the bookies make them 3/10 favourites, and offer odds of 9/1 on us winning the game? Are they a better team than they were when we last met? Probably, yes. Have our performances this season declined compared to last? Definitely, yes.

The first win in August 2015 was the one that took everyone by surprise. Although we had already beaten Arsenal at the Emirates on the opening day of the season, we lost the next two games at home to Leicester and Bournemouth. Nobody thought we had any realistic chance of victory at Anfield, where we hadn’t won since 1963. But an early goal from Lanzini was followed by a Mark Noble strike on the half hour, and then Sakho wrapped up a comprehensive 3-0 victory in injury time. By the time we met them on 2 January, our impressive season was well underway. We had only lost twice since our early season win at Anfield, and sat in seventh place. Goals from Antonio and Carroll secured a 2-0 win and the double over them. At the end of January we met them in the fourth round of the FA Cup, and a goalless draw at Anfield was followed by a 2-1 victory in the replay with goals from Antonio, and a 121st minute header from Ogbonna.

But this season it has all gone wrong, and we go into this game already embroiled in a relegation dogfight. Nobody realistically expects us to get anything this time, possibly giving us even less chance than last season’s surprise. But Bournemouth showed us last Sunday that the Liverpool defence can be got at, and their keeper looked very vulnerable. I wonder if our training has been more intense following the revelation after the Arsenal game that it hasn’t been what it should have? I read that Bilic has taken specific hands-on coaching of our defence, and not before time. I also read that Dicks has not been involved in coaching the defence, and that the offer from Rio Ferdinand to get involved has been declined. We’ll see on Sunday if there has been any improvement.

I also read rumours that Reece Burke is being recalled from his loan to add to our defensive squad, in particular the problematic right back position, and I welcome that if it is true. Every time he has played at either centre back or right back he has looked a good prospect to me, and definitely a player we should be looking to include. Also, Sam Byram is nearing a return, and hopefully our other injured players will be back soon. And I’d also like to see Reece Oxford given a runout. I’m sure he will turn out to be some player, but we’ll never know if he doesn’t get a chance. Perhaps they are waiting for him to sign a new contract.

Of course, the defence has not been our only problem, and we need to create opportunities and score more goals, by increasing the tempo of our attacking play. I hope that they have worked on this at Rush Green too. Naturally the media has been full of our woes, and rumours abound as to who we are looking to bring into the club in the January transfer window. The latest ones are Defoe, who would be superb alongside an in-form and injury-free Carroll, but would not be popular with some sections of our fans, who are unable to forgive him for the past. He was a young guy who made a mistake, but it was a long time ago. I’ve also read about the interest in Fellaini and I just hope that that this one is way off the mark. Of course you can find links on the internet to hundreds of players that we are supposedly interested in signing. Fortunately, most of them are just rumours with no foundation whatsoever.

Once again, with no real reason to do so, I’ll put my optimistic hat on and say we’ll get a 2-2 draw on Sunday. What are the chances?

Stadium tales & things I’ve heard in the crowd and on the way to games lately

London Stadium

In my book, Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford, I referred to a character who used to sit somewhere behind me in the Betway stand at Upton Park, who used to shout the words “back door, back door” continuously throughout the game, when our opponents were attacking our goal. If they had a corner, or a free kick, or indeed were attacking down either flank he would shout those words. It got a bit boring after a while and many of us were pleased when he no longer turned up for games. I’d like to think that someone showed him the back door!

Now there is a guy who sits somewhere behind me who I think of as Mr. Know-It-All. Throughout the game he passes comment the whole time with one or two expletives in every sentence. He really believes he is an expert on the game, and likes to tell everyone in earshot. Every player on the pitch, either our team or the opposition is referred to at the end of every single phrase he utters as a c***, or a f****** c***. Most of us are really cheesed off with him as he thinks he knows everything, but there is an old couple who seem to hang on his every word and seem to find him funny. During the Arsenal game he spent most of the time he was there berating Antonio. He didn’t actually know the difference between Fernandes who was playing and Antonio who was not. Fortunately he disappears to the bar about fifteen minutes before half time, and leaves a similar time before the end of each game. The grandfather who sits next to me with his six year old grandson has complained to stewards but they don’t seem to want to act. He really is a pain and keeps saying he is never coming again. But unfortunately he does.

Also near me is a chap who follows the team to every game, home and away, including abroad when we are in Europe. He gives a running commentary to his two sons, explaining the finer points of the game throughout. He actually is quite knowledgeable, but it gets a bit wearing.

A few rows in front of me there is a chap who is a dead ringer for the singer Will Young. He comes to the game with his wife, or girlfriend, or whatever she is, but doesn’t take any interest in the match whatsoever. They are too busy cosying up to each other and should really go somewhere else and get a room.

Fortunately, most of the people in my vicinity in the ground are a good bunch. But I guess you see all sorts in a crowd.

I’ve also heard some interesting things on the radio on the way to games. Phil Neville, who has obviously been watching a lot of tennis lately used the following words in a commentary: “he forced the City player into an unforced error.”

Chris Waddle referring to the game at the top of the table last weekend used the words “Manchester City could easily have been 3-1 up before Chelsea scored”.

And another radio pundit, referring to our own Simone Zaza, used the words “He’s still looking to find his feet”. Now I know the reason for his poor performances. Perhaps if he finds them he will be a better player.

Who is to blame for our poor start to the season?

Who is in the firing line as disappointed fans look for someone to blame for the current shortcomings.

Board, manager, players The move to a new stadium often results in some people being unhappy. Most clubs when they move take a little while to settle. It’s the same as moving house. It takes a while to get used to your new surroundings. A trawl through social media reveals how when results are going against us, or when we are not playing well (to put it mildly), then individuals want to blame someone, or a group of people, or an inanimate object as to the reason for it. Sometimes it’s the players, or the manager, or the board, or the stadium. Sometimes it is all of them added together.

I can understand the disenchantment with players, especially when sometimes they don’t appear to be giving their all. I can understand that the buck stops with the manager when he is responsible for picking the team, devising tactics etc. If he is unhappy with the effort being put in by players at training, then it is his responsibility to do something about it. When things are not going well then the board will inevitably come in for criticism from some fans too. Certainly the summer transfer dealings which resulted in some very average recruitment, the proposed payments to Tevez, and anticipation of a “marquee” signing, would have been better kept in-house rather than discussed with media outlets. But the vitriolic personal attacks by some on social media are totally unnecessary, although I guess are just a consequence of the computer age, and happen in other spheres of life, too.

The one that really gets me is the criticism of the stadium. It’s just a football pitch surrounded by stands. I understand all the talk about it not being a football stadium, further from the pitch etc., so how comes we turned in the performance we did against Chelsea in the League Cup? Did we play it somewhere else when I wasn’t looking? The atmosphere at that game was at least equal to anything ever produced at Upton Park. The decibel levels when Antonio nodded in the late winner against Bournemouth, or when Payet scored his wonder individual goal to equalise against Middlesbrough went off the scale. And if you study the statistics, Upton Park was rarely a “fortress”.

I’m not one of the new breed of plastic supporters that I see written about. I spent 58 years going to Upton Park. I loved it in the old days when we stood on the terraces and were close to the pitch. Yes, sometimes a crowd of 20,000 would generate a fantastic atmosphere, but only at times when we were lifted by the players on the pitch. When we weren’t playing well you could almost hear a pin drop at times. And with the redevelopment of Upton Park into an all-seater stadium following the Taylor report, we weren’t that close to the pitch either. I am more than happy with the new stadium, as are most of the people I’ve discussed it with who sit nearby. But everyone is entitled to their opinion, and I always respect other opinions.

But I personally don’t understand why fans keep going on about it. There is no going back I’m afraid. There is no point in posting pictures of the Boleyn Ground in various states of demolition. I’ve even read pleas to wealthy West Ham fans to come forward, and put together a new team, a bit like what has happened in Manchester, and even try to buy the Boleyn Ground from the developers and build a brand new purpose built football stadium there. Quite a project to undertake.

Perhaps the reason for our poor start is a mixture of players, injuries, the manager and coaching staff, the training facilities, the board, and the stadium. I believe that with a good run of results, much of the negativity will disappear. Everyone has to pull together to turn things around. But if we are still hovering around the relegation zone at the turn of the year, then I am afraid that the current discontent will continue. Let’s hope that everyone involved does their bit to ensure a big improvement in the remainder of the season.