I Wouldn’t Bet On It 41

Another bet on an unlikely result. Let us hope we can confound current form and pull off a shock win.

Fancy A Bet

So once again our bets fell down. At least I had the satisfaction of us not losing the game against Stoke, which was the main aim! Now we are 159 points down for the season to date.

Well, in for a penny, in for a point, I’ll go for the most unlikely result on Friday evening and bet on West Ham to beat Tottenham, with a saver on a draw. Given the respective form of the two sides, I would have to say that beating our North London rivals this week is as close to an impossibility as we have had in this fixture for some time. Much as I don’t like them, I have to concede that Tottenham have as good a team as they have had for some years, and their style and consistency of play makes them easily one of the best two teams in the country, and if they hold on to their best players and manager, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them going one better next season than the runners-up spot that they managed last year, and look likely to repeat this time.

The odds of a West Ham win are nowhere near as generous as they ought to be, and at 13/2, the bookies are saying we have about a 13.3% chance of winning the game. I would say that the chances are realistically lower than that. Nevertheless, we put a halt on their aspirations of getting to the top last March, and the reverse fixture at White Hart Lane this season was a game that we could, and probably should have won. But we must also remember that we haven’t (yet!) beaten any of the sides who are currently in the top eight of the Premier League this season in 14 attempts. We have two chances to rectify this; tonight’s game, and a home again against Liverpool in just over a week.

So, I will stake 31 points at 13/2 (232.5) on a West Ham victory, and 10 points at 15/4 (47.5) on a draw making it minus 200 points for the season so far. In the unlikely event that we pull off a shock win, and how I hope we do, then it will make up for some of the recent disappointing results. We’ve only won one game in our last eleven Premier League fixtures. Can we make it two out of twelve?

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?

West Ham entertain Tottenham

A rare Friday night visit from our North London neighbours

antonio

I’ll begin my preview of the Tottenham game with a quiz question. I’ll give the answer towards the end. What do the following footballers have in common: Jermaine Defoe, Mido, Bobby Zamora, Teddy Sheringham, Les Ferdinand, Paul Allen, Clive Allen, Martin Peters, Jimmy Greaves, Frank Lampard (senior), and John Lyall?

Whatever you think of our North London neighbours, and most West Ham supporters dislike them, (or an even stronger verb than that), they have been a formidable side for the past two seasons, and have come close to winning the title both times. It looks like ultimately they will fall just short again, and we can assist in that happening tonight.

If they beat us they will cut the deficit at the top to just one point, but when you consider Chelsea’s run-in, an away game at West Brom, and three home games against Middlesbrough, Watford and Sunderland, then Tottenham are unlikely to get the opportunity to take over at the top. After their game tonight, Tottenham have a home game against Manchester United, and finish with two away games at Leicester and Hull. In theory they could still be called upon to do us a favour on the last day of the season, but it is unlikely that it will come to that. At least I hope not!

Considering the season we’ve had, then logically there is no way we can compete with them tonight. They have only lost three times in the league all season, in away trips to Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool, and face us having won their last nine games in a row, scoring 25 goals in the process and conceding just 4. At least we are unbeaten in our last four games, but a record of one win in the last eleven games does not look so good. One thing that we are extremely good at is ending other teams’ bad runs; perhaps we can do the opposite for a change and end a good run?

Spurs away form is not as strong as their home form, and trips to West Brom, Bournemouth, and even Sunderland only yielded one point in each game. And last November, when we visited their ground, we led 2-1 with just a couple of minutes to go, only to do what we have done consistently all season, and throw away points from a winning position. All straws to clutch at when looking for any chance of a good result tonight.

Will Carroll be back from Holby City? Will Masuaku be fit? Will Noble return to the starting line-up? Will Calleri be selected again up front (I hope not)? Before Slav’s press conference on Thursday I wondered whether Sakho would be fit? We now know he won’t play again this season, and I wonder if we will ever see him in a claret and blue shirt again? Will we play three (five?) at the back? Will we try to win the game or play for a point? Can we repeat our best performance of the season (Chelsea in the EFL Cup)? A lot of these questions will be answered on the night.

Tottenham have kept a fairly settled side for most of the season, and with their system it seems that any injuries that they do have can be easily covered by players of a similar quality who know exactly the jobs that they have to do. On the other hand, we have had a catalogue of injuries once again this season, and I hope that the board and management are looking into the reasons for this. Are we just unlucky, or is there (as I suspect) more to it than that?

The answer to the quiz question: All eleven have scored goals for Tottenham against West Ham. The first nine on the list have all played for both teams, but the final two have not; but both Lyall and Lampard have scored own goals in a West Ham v Tottenham game.

And finally, a quote from the legendary Brazilian footballer, Pele. “The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning.” At the current time, this will be a very difficult game for us to win. If we can manage it, then we will all be extremely happy to say the least. What words or phrases can you think of?

Ecstatic, euphoric, thrilled, over the moon, elated, delighted, on cloud nine, walking on air, in seventh heaven jubilant, rapturous, as pleased as Punch, cock-a-hoop, as happy as a sandboy, as happy as Larry (who was Larry?), like a child with a new toy.

Yes, all of those. And by the way, for those lovers of statistics, we have now managed to reach 998 points in Premier League football from 803 games, in this our 21st season. This puts us at tenth place in the all-time list. The nine teams above us include the top seven teams in the Premier League at the moment (but not in the same order), plus Aston Villa and Newcastle. Wouldn’t it be good to reach 1000 in the game against Tottenham? We’ll be overjoyed if we can.

Stoke 0 West Ham 0

Groundhog Day

We met Stoke at Upton Park in 2015. I looked back on my report of the game at that time. Some of the things I wrote included, “in goal, Jack Butland (at 22) already looks the complete goalkeeping package, and I reckon he is the best England keeper at the moment.” I also added, “despite their attacking prowess it is not difficult to see why they are the lowest scoring team in the Premier League at the moment.” And “their finishing was poor, and when they were on target Adrian was able to keep them out. Our defence held up well, and Adrian was determined not to be beaten”.

Although Butland has been injured for over thirteen months, and this was only his second game back, then on the evidence of this game, my judgement on his goalkeeping prowess remains sound. And, although they are not the lowest scoring team in the Premier League this season, they are one of the lowest, and their “goals for” column does not match their league position. And again, our defence held up well, and Adrian was similarly determined not to be beaten, including some fine saves. It was Groundhog Day in many respects.

It certainly wasn’t the worst 0-0 draw you could see (just like our home game against them last season), but it was a game that both sides could have won. In the end, both were probably happy with the point. Once again, the manager’s decisions baffled me a little. The continuing selection of Calleri is one that I just cannot fathom, and despite the fact that he “moves well”, he is in the team to score goals. It would be useful, and he would stand more chance of doing so, if he could hit the target! And the rabona was quite ridiculous I thought. Save that for Rush Green. The fact that we took off Ayew, who looked the most likely to score, and brought on Noble, handed the late initiative to Stoke. Strange managerial decisions that, to me, were difficult to comprehend.

For the past three seasons Stoke have finished in a very creditable ninth position, and if you read some of the comments on social media criticising our team for not beating a “poor Stoke side” then I think they are misleading. Stoke, like ourselves, are just members of the mid-table cluster of clubs that are nowhere near good enough to be challenging the top six in the table, but at the same time are just a little too good to go down. This group stretches from Southampton in ninth place on 41 points, down to Palace in sixteenth on 38. Of course some of these sides are not yet mathematically safe from the drop, but it would be a surprise if any of them didn’t already have enough points.

The Swansea draw at Manchester United takes them up to 32 points with three games left, and if they win all three then they could reach 41. As top flight games go, all are winnable (home v Everton, away v Sunderland, and home v West Brom), but with their goal difference as it is then all would need to be won to overtake us. Hull are two points better off on 34, so they could conceivably get to 43, and their three remaining fixtures are at home to Sunderland, away to Palace (this could be a really significant game, especially if Swansea are still in touch), and finally at home to Tottenham. Palace have 38, and apart from the Hull game, they have two potentially very difficult games in Manchester, although they have a healthy goal difference compared to others in the bottom half.

Taking all of this into account then 39 points is likely to be enough, but it is still disappointing to be facing three potentially difficult games to finish our season, and still have an outside chance of relegation. It was therefore important for us to pick up six points from our last four unbeaten games, and the draw at Stoke could turn out to be the one that took us to safety. It is amusing to look at the contrasting ways our recent form has been described. Unbeaten in four games sounds quite good, but one win in the last eleven games does not.

I thought that Swansea were very unlucky to only get a draw at Old Trafford, where yet another dubious penalty decision (I say dubious, but I really think diabolical) was awarded to the home side. The referee took his time before giving the decision and then got it wrong. They really shouldn’t guess in these circumstances, and if they are not sure then they shouldn’t give it. Sigurdsson’s free kick to equalise was sublime. Now that is one player I’d like to see in our team next season, as opposed to so many that we are allegedly linked with, but I guess he will have a number of suitors if Swansea go down, and I’m not sure that we are an attractive enough proposition for such a talented player.

So we move on to face an in-form Tottenham side on Friday night. Whoever decided that this was a suitable game to be moved to a Friday night for television purposes just doesn’t have any real idea about the animosity of the fans towards each other. I’m amazed that the police were in agreement to the switch, and I anticipate a large contingent there to try to ensure it goes off without any real issues. However, I am looking forward to my penultimate visit to the London Stadium this season as I had another engagement on Saturday afternoon; so for purely personal reasons I am pleased with the change of day. This is our twenty-first season in the Premier League, and after the point we picked up at Stoke we have now collected 998 points in the 803 games we have played to date. It would be nice to reach 1000 in the game against our North London neighbours. What are the chances?

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 40

A change in approach.

Fancy A BetWhat a season to choose to bet on West Ham! The sheer unpredictability of our team, and our ability to throw away more points from a winning position than any other team in the Premier League has been our downfall, and is a lesson in not to bet on them. Our loss last week meant that our running total is now down to minus 99 points for the season. Fortunately I have got some more funds to invest, so this week I am going to try something different. I am going to bet on us to lose the game at Stoke. I really don’t mind losing the bet if it brings about a change of fortune in our results.

Stoke are 11/10 to win the game, and though they have not had the best run of results lately I am going to stake 40 points on them to beat us. They are also 11/4 to win the game to nil, and with our lack of firepower I believe (unfortunately) that this is a good bet too.

40 points at 11/10 on Stoke to beat West Ham (84)
20 points on Stoke to win the game to nil @11/4 (75)

By staking 60 points on the game then this brings our balance down to minus 159 points. I really hope that I lose the bet and we get something out of the game. But if we don’t there is a minor consolation of a winning bet or two. In fact if Stoke do win the game and we fail to score then our return would be 159 points, and would wipe out our deficit entirely.

Not sensible betting I know, but I can’t lose can I? If we lose the game then I win with the bet, and if we get a draw or win, then that will bring us closer to safety.

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?

West Ham visit Stoke

A visit to the Potteries to face a Stoke side aiming for at least a ninth place finish for the fourth season in a row.

west ham stokeI have to own up. In the recent past when Tony Pulis was their manager, one team that I disliked intensely for their style of play was Stoke City. I couldn’t knock their effectiveness, but I just hated to watch games against them, especially in the days of the Delap long throw. Under Mark Hughes they are not favourites of mine either, but their style has improved somewhat, they have some skillful players mixed with their uncompromising ones, and they have become a fixture in finishing in the top half of the Premier League.

For the past three seasons they have finished in a very creditable ninth position, and with just four games to go of this campaign they sit eleventh, just one point away from ninth, which must be the aim of a cluster of clubs, including ourselves, who can all reach this place in the table with a good finishing run.

A bit like ourselves, they began the season disastrously, and at the end of September after six games, they had been beaten four times and drawn two games to leave them in the relegation zone at this early stage. But they did have some difficult fixtures at the beginning, and a kinder group of opponents, including Sunderland, Hull, Swansea and ourselves, enabled them to win three and draw two of their next five games, picking up 11 points in the process and found them climbing the table rapidly by Guy Fawkes night. Two wins in their next three games against Watford and Burnley meant even further progress upwards by the start of December, but then the remaining fixtures of 2016 yielded just two points from five games.

Eight points in the first four games of 2017 meant another upturn in league position, but their defeat on 4 February at home to West Brom, and our win at Southampton that weekend, meant that we sat in 9th place in the table, two points clear of them in 11th. Then they picked up 7 points in their next four games, including a creditable goalless draw at Manchester City (who had put 4 goals past them in their first home game of the season at the Bet 365 stadium). Since then they have had another poor run of results winning just one (at home to Hull), and losing five of their last six games.

So what can we conclude from this brief analysis of our opponents this weekend in trying to predict the outcome of the game? Not a lot really. Generally they have beaten weaker teams, and lost to the top teams, in a roller coaster of a season with inconsistency to match our own. Recent history of fixtures against them does not bode particularly well. This will be our tenth meeting with them since our return to the top flight. In the nine matches played, Stoke have won three, and five have ended as draws; our solitary victory was a 1-0 win on their ground in March 2013 thanks to a Jack Collison goal.

We should have beaten them in the final game of last season when a stirring first half performance should have seen us go in at the interval with more than a one goal advantage given to us by Michail Antonio. But the euphoria of the final game at Upton Park just a few days earlier wore off, and in typical West Ham fashion we allowed them back into the game with an equaliser early in the second half, before Diouf wrapped up the three points with a goal two minutes from the end. It was a game that mirrored the final fixture of the previous season (against Everton) where we took the lead and had control of the game before conceding an equaliser against the run of play, and then lost it in stoppage time.

At least we have halted our run of five consecutive defeats by picking up five points from our unbeaten last three games, edging us towards safety. We are not quite there yet, and could do with another point or three to ensure mathematical safety. Will we get them this weekend? I certainly hope so, but in all honesty I really don’t know.

The Lawro Challenge – Week 35

As the season and our prediction challenge gets close to a climax it is still all to play for.

Lawro Crystal BallIn Week 34, Rich scored 7 points, Geoff 6 points, and Lawro 3 points. This means that Lawro’s lead has been cut to 8 points. With just four weeks remaining and the finishing line coming into view can a jittery Lawro retain his position at the top?  The contest is becoming almost as exciting as the scoring in Eurovision.

It is amusing that some folks take Lawro’s predictions to heart (see this post on the Claret & Hugh web blog).  It is only a bit of fun and about as serious as your daily horoscope.  In an inconsistent season results have been notoriously difficult to predict.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

Now is the time to proceed to week 35.

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Total after 33 weeks

256

204

268

Score in week 34

7

6

3

Total after 34 weeks

263

210

271

 

 

 

 

Predictions – Week 35

 

 

 

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Saturday

 

 

 

Southampton v Hull

1-1

1-2

2-0

Stoke v West Ham

1-0

0-1

2-0

Sunderland v Bournemouth

2-1

0-2

1-1

West Brom v Leicester

2-2

1-1

2-1

Palace v Burnley

2-0

1-2

2-1

Sunday

 

 

 

Man U v Swansea

2-1

3-0

2-0

Everton v Chelsea

1-1

0-0

0-2

Middlesbrough v Man City

0-3

1-3

0-2

Tottenham v Arsenal

2-1

4-2

1-1

Monday

 

 

 

Watford v Liverpool

1-3

2-3

1-2

West Ham 0 v 0 Everton

A collectors item; a rare goalless draw at home to Everton, Lukaku fails to muster an effort on target let alone score, and it continues to be impossible to predict West Ham’s finishing position at the end of the season.

If, like me, you are a West Ham fan, and have been a regular visitor to Upton Park (and now the London Stadium) for years, you will know that when you go along to a game, you never quite know what to expect. But one of the things that you do not expect to see very often, and history bears this out, is a goalless draw. If we look at the Premier League games that we have played in the twenty-first century (season 2000-2001 onwards), then out of 264 home games, just 17 have ended as 0-0 draws which is less than the top flight average. This means that you would expect to see a goalless draw approximately once in every 16 visits to see us at home.

This game was not only our first 0-0 draw at the London Stadium, but also our first scoreless draw (either home or away) all season. After 34 games that is an unusual statistic. Last season both teams failed to score only once at Upton Park (v Stoke), a percentage of 5.3%, as opposed to the Premier League average of 8.4%.

It is perhaps even more surprising that it happened against Everton. For, not only do we normally expect Lukaku to score against us, but we haven’t drawn 0-0 at home to Everton since 1988, almost 30 years ago, although a game at Goodison Park ended goalless in 2003. Going down memory lane, our team for that 1988 encounter was McAllister, Stewart, Strodder, Gale, Dicks, Parris, Robson (Stewart), Dickens, Ward, Rosenior, Cottee (sub. Ince).

A lot of reports post-game this weekend concluded that Everton just didn’t turn up on the day. And despite having the lion’s share of possession, they failed to muster a single shot on target. Certainly not the performance of a team trying to break into the top six, playing against a side still not yet mathematically certain of avoiding the drop. However, I believe that it was a case of us not letting them play, and we were certainly more organised defensively than has been the case for a while. Apart from one scary ball-juggling moment Adrian looked solid enough, and perhaps the defence had more confidence with him between the sticks, although in truth he was not really called upon to display his talents. The return of Reid, playing in the middle of Fonts and Collins certainly improved our cause.

We were the only team that looked like we might break the deadlock, although Everton looked at their strongest in the final few minutes. I do worry about our fitness sometimes, as some of the players began to look a little leg-weary towards the end, which is highlighted by the number of late goals that we have conceded. Nordtveit gave the defence some protection in a manner similar to Obiang, and once again I was impressed by our two wing backs, Fernandes and Masuaku. The latter gets a bad press on some social media outlets which I fail to understand. I’ve only seen him play one bad game when in the team (and everyone is entitled to that), and to me looks more sound defensively, and a better attacking option than Cresswell, who we must remember earned an England cap earlier this season, although since then he has been a shadow of his former self.

As far as Fernandes is concerned, he is only just 21, and I am convinced that he will be an important player for us in the future. He adds pace in the midfield areas, such an important component of the modern game. I’ve written before that I just don’t get Calleri, but he must have something that others can see. I’m afraid I just can’t see it myself.

We really just need to get this season over and have a real sort-out in the summer. But wins for Swansea and Hull, as well as Palace at Liverpool, means that we can’t put our feet up just yet, and nor should we take it easy until the final whistle has blown this season. Seven points clear of Swansea and five ahead of Hull, and a superior goal difference, with just four games of the season to go, should normally be routine enough, but with most of the relegation candidates hitting form, it is not over yet.

We never usually do well at Stoke, Tottenham and Liverpool are tough home games, and I really wouldn’t fancy our last-day trip to Burnley if we still weren’t mathematically safe. I’m pretty sure it won’t come to that, and looking in the other direction we are just two points shy of ninth place. In fact this middle of the table, which has been closely packed all season, continues to be so, with just four points separating ninth and sixteenth. We could end up anywhere between those two positions (hopefully no lower!), although I couldn’t predict with any certainty where we will finish. But that’s the beauty of following this team!

West Ham v Everton

This weekend West Ham entertain Everton, who haven’t won a Premier League game away from home in more than three months. We can guess what that might mean!

Lukaku

After Leicester’s extremely unlikely interruption last season to how we expect the Premier League to look each year, then this time around normality has been resumed. The top six clubs in the league are the big 6, the ones way ahead of the others in terms of revenue, turnover, income, or whatever monetary measure you may care to use when assessing size. Our visitors this week, Everton, are doing their best to break into this club, a bit like we tried to last season. To give them their due they are hovering on the brink of sixth place, although they have played more games, and the matches are running out. However, if recent history is anything to go by they will be licking their lips at the prospect of visiting the London Stadium for the first time, to face a depleted, injury-stricken, and lacking confidence West Ham team, who have won just once in the last seven games.

The Toffeemen (how strange that name seems in the modern age) are so far ahead of the eighth-placed team that they are already assured of at least a seventh place finish, and could still finish higher. They hit the ground running at the beginning of the season with a draw and four wins in their first 5 games which put them in second place in the table, before stuttering in their next ten games, winning just once, when we visited them at the end of October. In a fairly scrappy game Lukaku (who else?) opened the scoring, before Barkley wrapped up the points in what turned out to be a relatively comfortable victory for them in the end. The defeat left us perilously close to the relegation zone at the time. Since then of course we have pulled away from it, before almost being dragged back into it in recent times. Everton were seventh on Boxing Day and have retained that position in the league since.

Everton’s home record is superb, having only lost one game, a 0-1 reverse to their Merseyside neighbours in December. Since that game, eight consecutive home matches have produced eight wins with 29 goals scored and just 6 conceded. Fortunately we are not playing them at Goodison Park, and although our home record is nothing to write home about, then much the same can be said about Everton on their travels in recent times. After two away wins in their opening four games (at West Brom and Sunderland) they have only won two further league games away from home, at Leicester in December, and Palace in January. But the fact that they haven’t won an away league game for more than three months is just the type of statistic that West Ham revel in, as we are masters at helping clubs to end poor runs of one sort or another.

This is Everton’s 63rd consecutive season in the top flight of English football, a figure that coincides with my age, so nobody under the age of about 70 will remember them being anywhere other than at the top table. Only Arsenal have had a longer uninterrupted run in the Premier League, and before that Division One. The other teams currently recognised as the top six, namely the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham have all had a spell outside of the top division in that time. So Everton can be applauded for their consistency and longevity to remain at the top.

During that uninterrupted run they have had some success, being league champions on four occasions and FA Cup winners three times. Like ourselves they have also won a European trophy, the Cup Winners Cup, in 1985. But their last major trophy win was the FA Cup in 1995, and their last league title was 30 years ago, demonstrating the difficulty of breaking the stranglehold of the top clubs. But then again, for all their dominance in the 1980’s, their neighbours Liverpool haven’t won the title since 1990 themselves, the top honours since the formation of the Premier League being shared by the two Manchester clubs, Arsenal and Chelsea, with just two interlopers, Leicester last year, and Blackburn in 1994-5 (and where are they now?).

So what can we expect this weekend? Well one thing looks a certainty. Lukaku has scored for Everton in each of his last nine appearances against us, so that is one run we would love to put an end to. We’ve only beaten Everton once in our last 17 Premier League meetings (the 3-2 win at Goodison, coming from two down after Lukaku missed a penalty). We haven’t beaten Everton at home in the Premier League since 2007 when a Bobby Zamora goal was the only goal of the game. Lukaku is the top scorer in the Premier League this season.

Everything points to an Everton victory, and the bookmakers recognise this making them the favourites to win the game despite their poor away form. We are a club in some disarray and need to get through to the end of this season and re-group. There needs to be major changes for us to get back to the type of season we had last year. So what do I expect? This time with no real logic or evidence to suggest it will happen, I fancy the boot to be on the other foot, and hope for a 2-1 win completely against the odds. What are the chances?

The Lawro Challenge – Week 34

All to play for in the Predictor Challenge as everyone sees at least at point for the Hammers this weekend.

Lawro Crystal BallIn Week 33, Rich scored 6 points, Geoff 8 points, and Lawro 7 points. Lawro’s lead has been extended to 12 points. Can he afford to relax? This week we have a reduced league programme but include the two FA Cup semi-finals where we forecast the scores after 90 minutes.

Also, this week I had a look at the league table that was formed by Lawro’s predictions this season. The team at the top of the league were Liverpool. What a surprise! It just goes to show that even when you are being paid to make predictions the bias shows. I am the same, although I am not being paid. I am just an optimist!

The same is true of the pundits on TV. Their lack of neutrality shows through. I even recently heard an ex-Liverpool player when giving his thoughts on a Liverpool game constantly saying “we”. Personally I would prefer to hear the views of neutrals, but I guess I am in the minority as broadcasters always seem to want to involve ex-players of the clubs involved in a particular game. And, anyway, there are probably more ex-Liverpool players doing the pundit job than those from other clubs.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 34.

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Total after 32 weeks

250

196

261

Score in week 33

6

8

7

Total after 33 weeks

256

204

268

 

 

 

 

Predictions – Week 34

 

 

 

 

Rich

Geoff

Lawro

Saturday

 

 

 

Bournemouth v Middlesbrough

2-1

1-1

2-0

Hull v Watford

2-0

2-0

2-1

Swansea v Stoke

1-0

2-1

1-1

West Ham v Everton

2-1

2-2

1-1

Chelsea v Tottenham S/F 90 minutes

0-1

1-4

1-1

Sunday

 

 

 

Burnley v Manchester United

1-2

0-1

1-1

Liverpool v Palace

3-1

4-2

2-0

Arsenal v Man City S/F 90 minutes

2-2

3-4

0-2

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 39

Here we go again

Fancy A Bet

If bookmakers paid out after 85 minutes of a game of football we would have been well in profit by now. But of course they don’t, and as we all know, betting on West Ham can be a precarious business. Once again we threw away a game from a winning position very close to the end. It wasn’t the first time, and I’m sure it won’t be the last.

Our balance is now down to 20 points, meaning that we are 80 points down in the season. Unless our fortunes change soon, or at least stop hiding, then we will be out of funds soon.

This weekend it is Everton. The obvious bet is, of course, for Lukaku to score the first goal (7/2), or Lukaku to score anytime (11/10), but I’m not going to do that. But he always does, doesn’t he?

With Carroll apparently out, Antonio definitely out, and Sakho, well I don’t know what to believe any more, then we are a bit thin on the ground when it comes to scoring goals. But there is always Calleri!

It would be so easy to write us off for this game, but I will continue to believe that we may spring a surprise. So adding a touch of caution this week, I will spend 19 of the 20 points we have left as follows:

10 points on West Ham to beat Everton @11/5 (32)
4 points on West Ham to win and both teams to score @9/2 (22)
5 points as a saver on a score draw @16/5 (21)

If we win or the game ends in a score draw then we make a profit on the week. If we lose then this could be the penultimate week of this weekly column as we will be down to a solitary point. That is, of course, unless I can find some more points from somewhere.

The potential returns are in brackets. What are the chances?