Author: Richard Bennett

After the disappointment of our failure last Monday to beat a Stoke side that look doomed to spending next season in the Championship, we can take heart that as we go into today’s game against another of the top six elite sides, we are still in fourteenth place in the Premier League. A victory over the Potters would have virtually seen off the threat of relegation, albeit not mathematically, but nonetheless the point gained was also a point that ensured a single point for Stoke that leaves them with an uphill task of catching us as they are seven points behind with only four games to play. Similarly, Southampton who also have four games remaining are six points adrift of us. Of the six teams below us in the table, only Swansea have five games to play like ourselves. The others only have three or four games to save their season. Surely we can do enough in these remaining matches to ensure top flight football for another season, even though all of our outstanding games are against teams in the top nine of the table.

Before the announcement of the impending departure of Arsene Wenger this week I was of the opinion that this was as good a time as any to face a trip to the Emirates Stadium. So many ungrateful Arsenal fans have been staying away in protest against their manager of 22 years, who has only brought them three league titles and seven FA Cup final victories during his tenure! In 20 of those years Arsenal have finished in the top four and qualified for the Champions League each time. Virtually every other club in the country would be happy with such a record. But Arsenal fans, like all the other fans of the top six clubs, believe they have a divine right to be at the very top. When “Wexit” hit the headlines on Thursday there was some relief among the Gunners faithful and perhaps a renewed enthusiasm to follow the team, a situation that might add something to the Arsenal performance today.

Of course, Arsenal have a Europa League semi-final against Atletico Madrid next week, and some might believe that they could take their foot off the gas and rest some key players today, but I doubt that this will be the case. They are certainly not the invincible team that we have faced so often in recent years, and they lack the pace up front that was so regularly our undoing against them, but nevertheless they still play with a certain style that can cause us problems.

Unlike so many of our fans I would like to see Joe Hart retain his position in goal, even though he will be forced to step down in the forthcoming fixture against Manchester City. Yes, he dropped a clanger for the Stoke goal, but I was interested to read some statistics that showed he has made fewer errors that have led to goals this season than either Cech for Arsenal or Lloris for Tottenham. There has been much speculation this week that Moyes wants to sign him permanently, which has led to some fans taking to social media to express their displeasure. At his best he is a fine keeper, although I accept he has not been at this level this season. Three other goalkeepers who have played for England could also be in sides that are relegated this season, Forster, Butland and Foster. Perhaps we could be interested in one of those, although only Butland would perhaps be better than Hart in my view. Depending on whether or not Fulham are promoted to the Premier League, their highly rated custodian Bettinelli is another we might fancy.

I expect an unchanged back three of the ever-impressive Rice alongside the in-form Ogbonna and Cresswell. Zabaleta and Masuaku will probably continue as the wide players, but I fear for Noble and Kouyate being over-run in the middle. It will be interesting to see who is selected in attacking positions, with only the Hammer of the Year elect Arnie being certain to start. Mario, Lanzini, Hernandez, Carroll and Fernandes will all be vying for a place in the starting line-up. I thought that the manager was too negative with his selections for the Stoke game leaving Arnie too isolated, but I doubt that he will change for this game until we fall behind. Fernandes will be a fine player in time, but I don’t see him as an offensive threat, and if selected for today I would like to see him bolstering the middle alongside Noble and Kouyate. Carroll has a fine record against Arsenal, and thinking of horses for courses perhaps this is one game he should start. But I suspect he will once again be on the bench alongside Hernandez. Perhaps Lanzini will play in a more advanced role alongside Arnie?

But whoever is picked I am hoping that we can pick up another point to edge us closer to safety. The bookmakers don’t have us as such big outsiders as they have done against other top sides recently. We are only 5/1 to win the game and 7/2 to share the spoils. But whatever happens today we should retain our league position unless Swansea win unexpectedly at Manchester City. I’m going for 1-1.

Being of a certain age I can fondly recall the days when the prospect of a visit from Stoke City was one of the highlights of the season. For those of us who remember watching top flight football in the 1960s and early 1970s there were some epic fixtures against the Potters, who at the time were an attractive team that played entertaining football.

On a sunny Saturday afternoon in early October 1967 with a crowd of 24,000, we took our places on the “big step” on the North Bank at Upton Park about half way back slightly to the left of the goal. The Bee Gees were about to take over from Englebert Humperdinck at the top of the charts with Massachusetts. We were looking forward to the game and the first half didn’t disappoint us. Our first goal arrived when Geoff Hurst volleyed home a cross from the left from Peter Brabrook wearing the unfamiliar number 9 shirt. We had gone into the game with three out and out wingers in Brabrook, Sissons and Redknapp. The second goal was a spectacular overhead kick from Martin Peters following a cross from Redknapp. Shortly afterwards Bobby Moore sent Redknapp hurtling down the right wing, and he crossed from the bye-line to Hurst who headed home from six yards. Game over. Or so we thought!

Stoke had nothing to lose and came out attacking in the second half. When they pulled one back we weren’t unduly worried, but when a second went in we could see how the game was turning. Then our keeper Bobby Ferguson badly fumbled a weak shot and the rebound was turned in to bring the scores level. Stoke were now rampant and scored again to win the game 4-3. It is over 50 years ago now, but I remember the game very clearly. I’m not sure of the exact timing of the Stoke goals but my recollection is of them going in one after another in a very short period of time, a complete defensive collapse.

A couple of seasons later, almost to the day, a record which was banned by the BBC for its overly sexual content, Je T’Aime, Moi Non Plus (Jane Birkin and Serge Gainsbourg), was about to hot number one in the charts. If anything could be guaranteed to enhance the success of a song, being banned by the BBC was it. On a cold October Monday evening in front of a crowd of 27,000 we met Stoke again and raced into a three goal half time lead with strikes from Best, Brooking and Sissons. I can’t remember why, but Moore, Peters and Hurst who played in virtually every game at the time, were all missing for this fixture. From our customary North Bank vantage point we joked that we would probably lose 4-3 just as we had two seasons earlier. And we very nearly did! Once again Stoke came storming back to equalise the game at 3-3, and with almost the last kick of the game they struck the post.

Two seasons later we met Stoke in a League Cup semi-final that went to four games. In those days there were replays rather than penalty shoot-outs. On a Wednesday evening in December the first leg was away in the Potteries and we won the game 2-1 with goals from Best and a Geoff Hurst penalty. We were getting ready for a trip to Wembley! Almost 39,000 crammed into Upton Park for the second leg a week later. Stoke scored to bring the tie level at 2-2 before very late in the game we were awarded a penalty right in front of us in the North Bank. Geoff Hurst powered the spot-kick to the keeper’s right (as he always did), but the legendary Gordon Banks pulled off a magnificent save, and we went to a replay at Hillsborough in early January. That game ended goalless, so the tie went to a second replay, this time at Old Trafford three weeks later. For the whole of January the New Seekers were topping the charts singing (in Perfect Harmony!) that they’d like to teach the world to sing, a song made even more famous when it was used as a TV advertisement for Coca-Cola.

This second replay was incident packed, and one of the all-time great cup ties. It is remembered for Bobby Moore going in goal to replace the injured Bobby Ferguson who was concussed from a kick in the head early in the game. Incredibly Moore saved a penalty, although the rebound was turned in to put us 1-0 down. Incredibly we fought back and scored twice with goals from Billy Bonds and Trevor Brooking. Ferguson returned to the game to resume in goal seemingly still concussed (it couldn’t happen today!), but we conceded two further goals, and Stoke won the game 3-2 to reach the Wembley final, where they beat the strong favourites Chelsea to win their first ever major trophy. They haven’t won another since.

Those heady football (and charts) memories are distant now, and neither Stoke (nor ourselves for that matter) are renowned these days for the entertaining style of our play. In recent years beginning with the Tony Pulis era, Stoke have become a team that I particularly dislike to watch. Their time wasting, blocking off the ball (American football style), and long throw game made them one of the most unattractive fixtures of the season. They regularly played the game to achieve throw-ins in the opposition half, and then Rory Delap would spend an age wiping the ball with a towel before launching the ball towards the penalty area to meet the head of one of their giants. One game I remember in particular was in the 2008/9 season when Stoke had returned to the top flight. Abdoulaye Faye (who later played for us in our promotion season three years later) scored for them in the first five minutes and then they killed the game stone dead with their tactics. We attacked them relentlessly and Carlton Cole scored an equaliser in the second half. The recriminations amongst the Stoke players led to Ricardo Fuller hitting one of his own players and getting sent off. With ten men, their time wasting went up a notch (if that was possible) whilst we continued to press for a winner. In the very last minute a Cole shot hit Diego Tristan (remember him?) and it fortuitously went into the goal. Stoke got exactly what they deserved.

So now we meet them again on a Monday night with a lot at stake. Our point at Chelsea last week took us closer to safety, and I hope that we can put another nail in the Stoke relegation coffin with a victory that would almost certainly mean we will retain our position in the top flight. With most bookmakers we are around even money to win the game which I believe to be very generous odds. Hopefully we can unlock the Stoke defence, which has conceded more goals than any other Premier League team this season (and they have the worst goal difference). In their position, with games fast running out, they surely will not sit back and play for a point as they really need to win most of their final games to stay up. After the game here they face Burnley, Liverpool, Palace and Swansea.

We have some tough fixtures ourselves after this game, so let’s hope we can put further daylight between us and the bottom three with three more points. A three goal lead by half time would be good! When we raced into a three goal advantage at half time in our last home game against Southampton it got me thinking as to how many times we had been three goals ahead just half way through a game in the sixty years I have been following West Ham. I couldn’t think of many, and with Stoke being our next home fixture, it reminded me of those two classic fixtures from the late 1960s. Of course this game will be nothing like those; it will be a tight, tense affair. Or will it?

On Saturday morning we were in 14^th place in the Premier League, and with no game until today, there was every chance that we could have slipped down the table with most of the teams still involved in the relegation scrap having the opportunity to pick up points. But none of the teams below us managed to win a game which was probably the best we could have hoped for, so we go into today’s game with little to lose, and everything to gain. An average of a point a game has kept teams outside the bottom three all season, and it is looking increasingly likely that 38 points will be more than enough to achieve safety. It may only take 35 or 36.

Newcastle reached that level (38) yesterday with an important win at Leicester, as did Bournemouth who once again managed a late equaliser to deny Crystal Palace an away victory. They should both now be safe, as Watford almost certainly are with 37. I think that we can now narrow down the potential relegation candidates to eight teams as set out in the table below. Stoke lost to Tottenham, Brighton drew with Huddersfield, and Swansea could only manage a draw at doomed West Brom. I don’t think we could have wished for better than that.

Southampton play at Arsenal today, so I’m hoping that they will not gain on us, and they won’t have a hope of doing so if they replicate their woeful performance against us at the London Stadium last week.

The bottom teams in the Premier League	Points	Goal Diff.	Games Played	Games to play
13. Brighton	35	-14	32	6
14. West Ham	33	-18	31	7
15. Swansea	32	-19	32	6
16. Huddersfield	32	-28	33	5
17. Crystal Palace	31	-19	33	5
18. Southampton	28	-18	31	7
19. Stoke City	27	-33	33	5
20. West Brom	21	-26	33	5

It could be that Brighton have enough points already, but three more points will almost certainly see them safe. It is just as well that they have 35 points in the bag, as I doubt that they will get many more in their six remaining fixtures, two games at home to Tottenham and Manchester United, and four away games at Palace, Burnley, Manchester City and Liverpool. Our remaining fixtures are not the easiest but a home win against Stoke in the next round of matches should see us virtually safe with five games to go. Looking at the outstanding games, Palace have the easiest run-in on paper, and Swansea have a tough run of games before meeting Southampton and Stoke at home to round off their season. Huddersfield’s next game at home to Watford is a big game for them, as their final four fixtures see them play Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal.

At this stage I reckon that West Brom and Stoke are as good as down, and they will be joined by Southampton or Huddersfield. Bookmakers tend to agree with my assertion with both West Brom and Stoke at massive odds on to be relegated, and Southampton / Huddersfield both around even money. You can get around 5-1 on Swansea, 8-1 on Palace, and 10-1 on ourselves to be playing Championship football next season.

So what chance do we have in today’s game? Very little based on recent visits to Stamford Bridge. The last time we won a Premier League game there Di Canio netted the winner so you can see how long ago that was. Unsurprisingly Chelsea are massively odds on to collect three points, whereas you can get upwards of 10/1 on a West Ham win.

I’m hoping that we can upset the odds, but more than that looking for us to put in a good performance in the game. We beat them in the reverse fixture at home when Arnie scored the only goal of the game, so what chance we can do the double?

It seems ridiculous on the face of it, as the football season is approaching its climax (we are only six weeks away from the final game), that we should have a gap of three weeks between games. This is, of course, due to the later rounds of the FA Cup and the international break taking precedence. In view of our dismal form prior to the break, then perhaps in our case it is a welcome chance to re-group, work hard, and re-charge our batteries for the run-in. We have just eight games remaining to collect sufficient points to ensure that our six-year stay in the top flight of English football continues for at least one further season.

Whilst all of the remaining games are likely to be important, this match against Southampton is a particularly crucial one. Looking at the other fixtures in this round concerning other teams involved in the relegation scrap, Stoke are playing at Arsenal, whereas Newcastle are at home to Huddersfield, Palace face a tough game with Liverpool visiting Selhurst Park, and Swansea travel to Old Trafford. If (and it is a big if) we can win the game, and if other results go our way, then the league table could look a lot healthier at the end of this group of matches. The table below represents the current position of the bottom eight, who I believe are the only realistic candidates for the drop. Brighton, Watford and Bournemouth on 34, 36, 36 points respectively, have probably done enough already but are not entirely safe yet.

The bottom teams in the Premier League	Points	Goal Diff.	Games Played	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play
13. Newcastle	32	-10	30	8	4	3
14. Swansea	31	-17	30	8	4	3
15. Huddersfield	31	-27	31	7	3	3
16. Crystal Palace	30	-18	31	3	4	1
17. West Ham	30	-21	30	3	5	4
18. Southampton	28	-15	30	5	3	3
19. Stoke City	27	-29	31	3	3	3
20. West Brom	20	-25	31	0	4	3

A victory, with the other results going to form in our favour could see us climb as high as 14^th place in the table on 33 points. If that does happen then we could be five points clear of the drop zone with seven games to play, whereas some of the others would only have six matches outstanding. When you look at the table, then the bottom five have the poorest form in the last five games. We hold a bit of an advantage in that we still have five home games to play, which is more than any of the others, but on the other hand we have more teams in the top six to play in our remaining fixtures.

A draw would still leave us well in the mix with a lot to do, whereas a defeat would be almost unthinkable as we would drop into the bottom three. It is still not clear exactly how many points will be needed to stay up, but any team averaging a point a game continues to be outside of the bottom three. If this remains to the end of the season, and I believe it will, then 38 should be a safe figure. At this stage my money would be on West Brom, Stoke, and Huddersfield to go down, but things can still change. The bookmakers’ odds concur with my prediction, as these are the three favourites, with Southampton and ourselves neck and neck just beyond them. West Brom look as certain as can be, whereas Stoke could join them adrift of the pack with their next two games against Arsenal and Tottenham, before they face us at the London Stadium on April 16. We have a fairly difficult run-in ourselves, but Southampton could also find themselves in a difficult position if we beat them, and then their next three games see them facing Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) and Leicester (A).

Huddersfield face two tough away games at Newcastle and Brighton before a home fixture against Watford. Their run-in then sees them playing Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal, and with their very poor goal difference I can see them joining West Brom and Stoke in the Championship next season.

I see that a demonstration is planned at Stratford prior to the game, but I hope that the support is right behind the team when the game gets underway, and that we don’t see a repeat of the despair that was evident when we went a goal down against Burnley last time. I’m hoping that the sight of Mark Hughes on the touchline will once again inspire Arnie into a match-winning performance, but I’ve given up on trying to predict the team that our manager will select for this crucial game, as I am unable to read his mind.

The most recent games between West Ham and Southampton have seen a glut of goals, including the fixture earlier in the season when we went down 3-2 to a late goal from a soft penalty, after pulling back from a two goal deficit. If our visitors win the game it would be the first time that they had completed a double in the league over us in a season for 20 years, and by doing so they would apparently inflict upon us our 1000^th defeat in the top division in our history. And if they beat us by three goals then that would be our fourth consecutive league defeat by this margin or more, an unfortunate “feat” that hasn’t happened in the top flight of English football for 50 years! You know what happens with statistics like these when West Ham are involved!

There are concerns over the fitness of Lanzini who was on international duty in the break, but Masuaku can return after his six game suspension, and apparently Fernandes, who hasn’t been seen for some time, is fit once again. Rice received some excellent reviews for his performance for Ireland and must start to get a permanent run in the team soon. But whatever happens, all will not be decided this weekend with a lot of football still to be played this season.

Although there are still five home games to go, this will be the last Saturday 3pm kick off at the London Stadium. I fancy a surprising and unexpected 4-1 win for us. Of course what I fancy is extremely unlikely, but you can always hope!

It is a sad state of affairs that every club in the Premier League outside of the top six has a negative goal difference. That means that if you support any one of 14 teams in the top flight then you will have seen them concede more goals than they have scored. And apart from Burnley, who are currently leading the table to finish seventh, your team will have lost more games than they have won. This weekend we face the aforementioned Clarets in the 30^th game of the 38 game campaign, in our latest attempt to pull away from the bottom three. So far they have won ten and drawn ten, so for those of us who like symmetry I hope that we inflict upon them their tenth reverse of the season.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 29 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play
7.  Burnley	40	-2	6
8.  Leicester	37	-1	3
9.  Watford	36	-8	10
10. Brighton	34	-10	11
11. Everton	34	-16	6
12. Bournemouth	33	-10	8	5	3
13. Swansea	30	-17	10	4	3
14. West Ham	30	-18	4	6	4
15. Huddersfield	30	-25	6	5	3
16. Newcastle	29	-13	6	5	3
17. Southampton	28	-12	6	3	3
18. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	4	2
19. Stoke City	27	-26	4	5	4
20. West Brom	20	-21	0	5	3

As I have written before on the subject there is no official competition to finish seventh, but there is a certain satisfaction to be gained from being the leading team in the Premier League outside of the top six who are far and away ahead of the rest. Prize money is at stake too, but this becomes less relevant given the money ploughed in from domestic and overseas television rights.

The battle to avoid relegation, which has massive financial implications, continues to be the most interesting aspect of the league. An extract from part of the league table shown above illustrates that we are still in a better position than some, as there are still six teams below us with only nine games to go. Perhaps the teams from Everton upwards may believe they are more or less safe (although they wouldn’t admit it), but they could still get dragged into it if they have a bad run of results, and enough of the teams below them continue to pick up points.

The teams who currently occupy the bottom three places have current poor form (when the last five games are analysed), although we have only fared better than Palace and West Brom in this respect. Swansea and Bournemouth have the momentum gained from recent good results and this might help them to pull further clear. However we still have six home games to play, and although some fans would have you believe otherwise, our form at the London Stadium would put us in 11^th place in the table if only home games are considered. This should give us an advantage, especially when compared to Southampton who only have three. However we still have to face four of the top six in the table in our remaining nine games, and only Stoke match that number.

It is still not clear exactly how many points will be needed to stay up, but any team averaging a point a game continues to be outside of the bottom three. If this remains to the end of the season, and I believe it will, then 38 should be a safe figure. The home games against Burnley, Southampton and Stoke should be the key ones for us, so let us hope that we start a winning run today. At this stage my money would be on West Brom, Stoke, and Southampton to go down, but things can still change.

Ironically, despite facing the team seventh in the table, the bookmakers have us as favourites to win the game at around 5/4, whereas they only give odds of 5/2 on Burnley. This may surprise some, but Burnley’s recent form is not much better than our own. Unfortunately (given the way these statistics go against us) I still have to report that West Ham have won every home Premier League game against Burnley to date, and they haven’t won a game in the top flight on our ground for almost 45 years. And Burnley haven’t won away from home since November. Oh dear!

Let us hope that the stinging criticism aimed at the players following last week’s capitulation at Swansea has the effect of galvanising our team into a much improved performance. But, however we achieve it, three points would bring a welcome boost to our aim to remain in the Premier League next season. I believe that, in what is likely to be a tight encounter, we will just about win by the odd goal. Enjoy the game!

The competition to see who will come out on top in Premier League 2 is as fierce as ever. Ignoring the top six in the Premier League it is anybody’s guess as to how the remaining 14 teams will finish the season with just ten games to go.

The bottom 14 teams in the Premier League after 28 games	Points after 28 games	Goal Diff.	Pts in last 5 games	Home games to play	No. of top 6 teams to play	Burnley LeicesterEverton Arsenal  To play
7.  Burnley	37	-3	3	5
8.  Leicester	36	-1	5	5
9.  Everton	34	-15	7	5
10. Watford	33	-9	7	5	4	2
11. Bournemouth	32	-10	8	5	3	1
12. Brighton	31	-11	8	5	5	3
13. West Ham	30	-15	5	6	4	4
14. Huddersfield	30	-23	6	5	4	2
15. Newcastle	29	-11	6	5	4	3
16. Southampton	27	-12	6	4	3	2
17. Crystal Palace	27	-18	2	5	3	1
18. Swansea	27	-20	10	5	3	1
19. Stoke City	26	-26	6	5	4	3
20. West Brom	20	-20	1	5	3	2

Of course there is no official competition to finish seventh, and who cares about finishing positions? Of course prize money is at stake, but with the vast amounts of money awash in the Premier League these days, the final position in the table is not especially relevant. Of most interest is the battle to avoid the drop, which has massive financial implications. I’m making an assumption that Burnley, Leicester and Everton probably have enough points not to be involved in the scrap, and that the bottom 11 teams from Watford down are still involved to a greater or lesser extent. In fact we have to play those three teams (who should be OK) still and that may be to our advantage as they may have switched off a little, as may Arsenal who are unlikely to move upwards or downwards in the table being isolated in sixth place.

Looking at the data above then West Brom and Stoke along with the three teams on 27 points have the most to do in terms of points needed. The bottom three at the moment have the worst goal difference together with Huddersfield and Palace, but looking at the form of the last five games then Swansea, Bournemouth and Brighton have achieved the most, with West Brom, Palace and ourselves at the bottom of the last five games form table.

All of the teams have 5 home and 5 away games to play with the exception of ourselves (6) and Southampton (4), which is a result of the switch at the very beginning of the season. Brighton have the most top 6 sides still to play (5), with all the other teams involved having 3 or 4. And finally looking at my identification of games to play against the four teams with the least to play for, then we still have to meet all four of them. Some might say though that is a disadvantage as the teams may be more relaxed and as such could give us a tougher game.

Whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to make a case for West Brom to survive. If they did it would be up there with the great escapes of the past, including our own in 2007. You can perm any two from five for the others to be playing Championship football next season, but looking at all of the factors my money would be on Stoke and Southampton to be the ones to join the Baggies. But it is so close, a lot can still happen, and this can easily change.

Our next three games at Swansea (today), then at home to Burnley and Southampton, will be ones that on paper we would expect to move us further clear of the bottom three. But if we don’t then the tough games to follow could mean we are still in deep trouble.

Of course watching the news this week, all the talk and pictures has been of the worst snowfall throughout the country for many years. Based on this, the warnings for most of the country not to travel unless absolutely essential, and the forecast for more snow this evening, then at the time of writing, I am amazed that all Premier League games are still set to go ahead. I hope that for the sake of travelling fans, especially our own with the potential difficulties of a long trip to South Wales, that decisions are not left until the last possible moment. But as we have seen with the recent announcement of TV games scheduled to be played on live TV, and the changes of dates involved, little thought is given to the supporters actually going to the matches, everything seems to be decided by Sky and BT who have final say.

Contradictory head to head statistics give us little clue as to the outcome of today’s game. On one hand, Swansea have only beaten us once in our last ten meetings, but on the other hand, they have never lost to us four times in a row, which would be the case if we beat them tomorrow. Over the course of history we are well on top in terms of wins, but just 15 of the 62 meetings have ended in draws. The bookmakers have Swansea as slight favourites to win the game, and given their recent form this is justified. However, when it comes to the correct score, then 1-1 is favourite at 5/1, and I would be happy to leave South Wales with at least a point.

Virtually all of our key players are fit, and it will be interesting to see the side that Moyes selects. I have given up trying to predict this, but I will agree with the bookies on a 1-1 draw, and Andre Ayew would seem a good bet to score the Swansea goal.

At the time of finishing this article, (9pm on Friday evening) all this weekend’s Premier League games are expected to go ahead despite the continuing snowfall and freezing conditions that are gripping the whole of the UK. We shall see.

This weekend we resume our battle for top flight survival with a difficult away game at Liverpool, who remain unbeaten at Anfield this season, although six of their thirteen visitors have come away with a point. Five of them are not particularly surprising as they are all top half teams, namely Burnley, Manchester United, Chelsea, Everton, and Tottenham. But in December the team now rooted to the foot of the table, West Brom, managed a goalless draw there.

Although our form over the last dozen games is impressive we are still only four points above the relegation zone. 20 points in those 12 games is a magnificent haul with 5 wins, 5 draws and just 2 defeats, and is bettered only by the very top teams. The disappointing feature though is that it could, and perhaps should, have been so much better. The two losses in that run were at home to Newcastle and away at Brighton, whereas two of the draws were disappointing home games against Bournemouth and Palace. We could be well away from the drop zone by now, but instead we are still in the mix, and failure to pick up something in the next two away games starting today against in-form teams Liverpool, looking to score four goals for the third game in a row, and next week the resurgent Swansea, would keep us well in trouble.

Liverpool themselves have no real injury concerns and can field almost their strongest line-up. They have won six of their last eight games and their only defeat in the last four months came at the hands of Swansea just a month ago. I noticed a statistic on the BBC website that said that Jurgen Klopp has suffered 17 league defeats as a manager of Liverpool in the whole of his time there, and if you averaged out the position in the table of those teams who beat them – then it is 12^th. We are currently 12^th in the table, but that is really clutching at straws!

For some time now I have had Mo Salah in my fantasy team, and he is continuing to impress with his goalscoring and assists. We will do well to keep him quiet. And apparently David Moyes has managed 14 visiting sides at Anfield and never managed to win there. Well there’s always a first time!

The bookmakers don’t really give us a prayer in this game quoting odds of 12/1 on a Hammers win and 6/1 on the draw, with Liverpool 1/5 to collect the three points. If you believe that we can sneak a win then you can get 35/1 on a score of 2-1, 45/1 on 1-0, and 80/1 on 2-0, with some very big odds if you think we can do better than that.

One thing in our favour is that our lengthy injury list of a few weeks ago seems to be largely diminishing, but this game will be a real test of how far we have come since the arrival of the new manager, and conversely will show how much further we still have to go. I noticed that after the Watford game David Moyes was targeting a top ten finish. On paper might not seem too much of a target as we are only one point off tenth position. In fact we are only six points behind Burnley who are lying seventh, but that would almost certainly be too much to hope for, even for the most optimistic of us, given the difficulty of many of our fixtures in the last eleven games. In eight of them we play teams currently filling the top nine places in the table.

Apart from Carroll, all of our attacking players seem to be fit, and it will be interesting to see how many of Chicharito, Arnie, Lanzini, Mario and Antonio will be accommodated into the team, especially for a tricky away fixture. My prediction for the team he will pick, and I very rarely get this right, is:

Adrian, Zabaleta, Collins, Ogbonna, Cresswell, Kouyate, Noble, Mario, Antonio, Arnautavic, Chicharito. Lanzini may be left on the bench after a lengthy lay-off together with Hugill, Rice, Byram, Reid, Hart and Cullen.

It is hard to see us winning the game, and probably the best we can hope for is a draw. But what I’ll be looking for is a competitive performance that will stand us in good stead for the run-in, irrespective of the result. 0-0 would be a very unlikely score against our free-scoring opponents and is priced at 25-1! I wonder if we can keep the score to that after 90 minutes?

The Premier League is the most popular league in the world in terms of spectators and media appeal yet we all knew who would win the title after just a few short weeks of the season. And before the season started we all knew which teams would occupy the top six places, even if we weren’t exactly sure as to the exact order they would finish in. And as we all predicted, the top six places have gone to the “big six” in terms of the revenue that they generate, and I’ve no doubt the same will happen next season. OK, so there is still a mini competition taking place to see which clubs will finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League, but in reality the most “popular” league in world football is so predictable, and it all comes down to money.

We are not alone. The “generally recognised” big five European Leagues have all turned out as expected. Manchester City’s 13 point lead in England is well beaten by Bayern’s massive 18 point advantage in Germany. PSG are 11 ahead in France, Barcelona are 9 clear in Spain, and the only competition for the title outright is in Italy where Napoli and Juventus are just one point apart, although 13 clear of the pack. Season after season the same teams qualify for the latter stages of the Champions League. It is all so predictable. And as a result, it is becoming boring.

For me the most interesting aspect of the Premier League is not who is going to win it, or even qualify for Europe, but the real competition involves the 14 teams who have no chance of winning, and little likelihood of qualifying for a place in the Champions League. If the predictability continues then perhaps the top six teams can be ignored, and a trophy can be awarded to the team that finishes 7^th? The competition among those 14 teams is fierce, and the battle to avoid finishing in the bottom three is (sadly) by far the most exciting part of the Premier League. For a long time now there has been talk of European Leagues whereby all the top clubs in Europe ignore their domestic competitions and take part in Europe alone. I’m surprised that it hasn’t yet happened. If we removed the top six teams from the Premier League the competition for the title among the remainder would be a far more open affair. Would we miss playing them? I for one would not. I suspect that the same would be true of all the other top European leagues.

So, getting back to this season, with just 12 games to go Burnley lead the chase for the “seventh place title” on 36 points, just one ahead of Leicester, who in turn are then four clear of Bournemouth and Everton. Today’s opponents Watford are just one point further back on 30, before the cluster of 9 clubs that make up the bottom portion of the table. Burnley and Leicester are as good as safe from relegation, whilst the three clubs below them are almost there, but not quite. Of the nine clubs that are seriously in the mix at the moment, we are at the top (12^th) on 27 points, but only three points ahead of 19^th placed Huddersfield. Only West Brom with 20 points are beginning to be cast adrift.

The closeness of the fight to avoid the drop makes for an interesting finale to the season, and every match from here to the end assumes massive importance. A win for us today will take us up level on points with Watford and edging closer to safety, whereas three points for the visitors would be a huge step towards ensuring Premier League football at Vicarage Road next season.

Recent form is often a good indicator of what is likely to happen, but this can be distorted by other factors such as the strength and form of opposition, and whether games have been played at home or away. Nonetheless it is worth taking a look at the bottom 12 with a dozen games to go and look at how many points they have picked up in recent matches. I’ve chosen the last 5 fixtures for each team, which in itself may or may not be a reliable indicator of the term “recent”.

The bottom 12 teams in the Premier League after 26 games	Points after 26 games	Current Goal Difference	Points in last 5 games
9. Bournemouth	31	-7	11
10. Everton	31	-16	4
11. Watford	30	-8	5
12. West Ham	27	-14	6
13. Brighton	27	-14	5
14. Crystal Palace	27	-15	8
15. Southampton	26	-10	6
16. Newcastle	25	-12	6
17. Swansea	24	-18	8
18. Stoke City	24	-26	4
19. Huddersfield	24	-27	0
20. West Brom	20	-16	4

Based on the recent form table alone then the current bottom three would be the ones playing in the Championship next season. As they include two teams that I dislike the most (West Brom and Stoke) then I wouldn’t be unhappy with that outcome. Our final twelve games comprise 7 at home and 5 away. Five of the 12 games are against sides in the bottom 12 (above), with four of them at home (Watford, Southampton, Stoke, Everton) and one away (Swansea). These games are crucial to our survival and are true six-pointers. It is important to win most of those games, and equally important to avoid defeat if we don’t pick up three points from each of them. Apart from the Swansea game, the other four away matches are against sides in the top eight (Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester) so we are unlikely to collect many points from them. A home game against the champions elect (City) won’t be a walk in the park either, nor will two other home fixtures against top eight sides (Manchester United and Burnley).

The importance of today’s game cannot be over-estimated. The gap between ourselves and Watford could be wiped out if we win, or extend to six points if we lose. Here are a ten factors to bear in mind in respect of this match, some of which are very worrying given West Ham’s predilection to allow other teams to end sequences of poor results:

1. If we avoid defeat that will extend our unbeaten run in league and cup at home to five matches – that would be a record for the London Stadium!
2. As a manager, David Moyes has never lost a home game against Watford.
3. This will be our 14^th game this season against a team who are currently above us in the table. The only game that we have won so far was at home to Chelsea. Nine of our final twelve games will be against teams currently in the 11 places above us in the table!
4. Watford have only won one of their last ten away games.
5. Watford have never beaten us twice in the league in a single season ever.
6. Watford won their last game convincingly beating Chelsea 4-1. They haven’t won two league games in a row for more than three months.
7. Michail Antonio has scored 6 goals in his last 7 games against Watford.
8. Michail Antonio scored both of our goals when we lost 4-2 at home to Watford last season (September 2016). He hasn’t scored a goal at the London Stadium since!
9. We have played a home league game against Watford before on February 10^th (11 years ago). We lost 1-0.
10. West Ham are 11/8 favourites to win the game, Watford are 15/8, with the draw at 23/10.