I Wouldn’t Bet On It 6 – Lets Do the Vanarama

A cheeky August Bank holiday accumulator on the Vanarama National League.

Fancy A BetOur accumulator bet at the weekend was unsuccessful with just two of our five selections, Everton and Doncaster winning. Our attempt at selecting three matches to end in draws was much better, with two of the games being drawn. The treble would have really boosted our balance, but it was not to be, although we still made another small profit overall.

The winning games were:

1 point on West Brom to draw with Middlesbrough @21/10 (3.1)

1 point on Brentford to draw with Sheffield Wednesday @21/10 (3.1)

 Our cumulative balance is now 95.6 + 6.2 = 101.8.

When trying to predict the results of football matches, do you study the form or do you expect long running sequences to come to an end? Do you look at various divisions and expect the results to be more predictable? Many people believe that the Championship has tougher games to predict, and that there is greater equality throughout the division. So does it have the most drawn games? Well not this season so far. No team in the Championship has drawn more than two of its five games.

League 1 and League 2 have so far had a much greater proportion of drawn games. So if you think you can predict drawn games these may be the divisions to follow. Some teams in each of these two leagues have drawn at least three of their five games, with Northampton standing out as having drawn all of their five matches! So when they next play, is a drawn game a certainty, or will the sequence be broken?

Today there is a fairly extensive Vanarama National League programme (the old Conference) and some teams have started the season particularly well. There have been a much lower percentage of drawn games when compared to Leagues 1 and 2. We’ll have another go at the five game accumulator, with the guarantee of money back if one lets us down, plus five single bets of one point on each of the games, making a total spend of six points, reducing our balance to 95.8.

1 point on each of the following:

Tranmere to beat Guiseley @1/3 (1.3)

Dagenham & Redbridge to beat Sutton @15/8 (2.9)

Forest Green to beat Southport @4/11 (1.4)

Lincoln to beat Gateshead @10/11 (1.9)

Chester to beat Woking @15/8 (2.9)

5 game accumulator at 28.7/1 (29.7)

 The figures in brackets show the potential return from a 1 point stake.