Last season, one of the country’s biggest bookmakers, William Hill, offered a prize of £50 million to anybody who could (before the season began) correctly predict the final Premier League table. If nobody was successful then £100,000 was on offer to the closest forecast. It cost £2 to make each entry, so they only needed 50,000 entrants to cover their costs if nobody could correctly list the finishing positions of the 20 clubs.
And of course nobody did bag the £50 million. The odds of correctly forecasting 20 different clubs to finish in a particular order is, according to my calculations, somewhere between 2 and 3 million million millions to one. That’s 18 noughts. I’d call it trillions but that’s not strictly correct. Even if you thought that the top six were cast in stone, and the 14 other clubs had no chance of coming out on top, then perming the favoured six in any order followed by the remaining 14 in every combination would still result in around 63 million millions to one.
Yes it’s virtually impossible, especially with surprises such as the final positions of Leicester and Chelsea last season. To make a comparison, the odds of coming up with the Lotto jackpot are around 45 million to one, and the EuroMillions 116 million to one.
Nonetheless for a bit of fun I’ll have a go, so here is my forecast for the final Premier League table next May:
- Manchester City
- Manchester United
- West Ham
- Crystal Palace
- West Brom
I’ll challenge my fellow writer, Geoff, to make his prediction and we’ll see who is closest next May. I reckon we’ll finish seventh, the same as last season. I hope that we win it of course, but I’m not sure that we are quite ready to challenge the big boys just yet. But I hope I’m wrong! The bookmakers make us eighth favourites to win the Premier League.