The Lawro Challenge Update 1

The first update to the season long challenge sees Lawro bring up the rear.

Lawro Crystal BallIt is just possible that maybe this predictions malarkey is not as easy as it might at first seem if the first week’s attempt is anything to go by.  Naturally, we both did better than the luckless Lawro but that really isn’t such a proud boast is it?  We have to believe that our indifferent performance was a down to an interrupted pre-season causing a lack of match fitness and that we will be far sharper in the coming weeks.

Below is the current state of play based on our own scoring system of 1 point for the correct result plus 2 bonus points for the correct score. As you can see we all got at least half the games completely wrong although Rich has managed to sneak into an early one point lead

  Lawro Geoff Rich Actual Lawro Geoff Rich
Hull v Leicester 0-2 1-2 1-2 2-1 0 0 0
Burnley v Swansea 1-1 2-1 1-1 0-1 0 0 0
Crystal Palace v West Brom 2-1 3-1 2-1 0-1 0 0 0
Everton v Tottenham 1-1 0-2 1-1 1-1 3 0 3
Middlesbrough v Stoke 1-0 1-1 0-0 1-1 0 3 1
Southampton v Watford 2-1 1-0 2-0 1-1 0 0 0
Man City v Sunderland 2-0 4-0 3-0 2-1 1 1 1
Bournemouth v Man Utd 0-2 1-3 0-2 1-3 1 3 1
Arsenal v Liverpool 1-1 2-2 1-1 3-4 0 0 0
Chelsea v West Ham 2-0 2-0 2-1 2-1 1 1 3
6 8 9

New TV scheduling means that the weekend starts here on a Friday evening this week with the Zlatan circus at Old Trafford and ends on Sunday with the Hammers hoping to find 11 fit players to put out against Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth.  Worryingly, all three of us are forecasting a home win to christen the league debut at the  Olympic/ Tesco/ London stadium.

    Lawro Rich Geoff
Friday 19th August Man Utd V Southampton  2-0 2-1 2-1
         
Saturday 20th August Stoke V Man City  1-2 0-1 0-2
  Burnley V Liverpool  0-2 1-3 1-1
  Swansea V Hull  2-1 2-0 0-0
  Tottenham V Crystal Palace  2-0 2-0 3-0
  Watford V Chelsea  0-2 1-2 1-1
  West Brom V Everton  1-1 1-1 0-1
  Leicester V Arsenal  1-1 2-2 1-3
         
Sunday 21st August Sunderland V Middlesbrough  1-1 1-1 1-0
  West Ham V Bournemouth  2-1 3-1 3-1

I Wouldn’t Bet On It (3)

The final weekend flutter with a cheeky bet on tonight’s match.

BookmakerI stick to a number of personal rules when I am betting.

  1. Only do it for fun; don’t get too serious.
  2. Bet with small stakes only, never more than you can afford to lose – it doesn’t then matter if you do lose.
  3. If you are on a losing run don’t chase your losses and try to get them back too quickly. Just like Mo Farah being tripped and going to ground in the Olympic 10,000 metres final. He didn’t rush to get back on terms quickly, he came back gradually.

On Sunday (14 Aug) there was one successful bet:

1 point on Manchester United to beat Bournemouth at 5/6 (1.8)

But I had good fun with the draw bet on the Arsenal v Liverpool game and was interested right to the end as Arsenal came back into the game after being 4-1 down.

The balance in points is now 92.1.

For the Chelsea v West Ham game I’ll do a different fun bet:

1 point on there to be exactly 3 goals in the match at 3/1 (4.0)

By placing this bet the balance is now reduced to 91.1.

The figure in brackets is the potential return from a 1 point stake.

Another season, another reason, for makin’ whoopee?

Top 4, second season Slav syndrome or more of the same?

At the start of last season I was warned to be careful what I wished for and would happily have settled for a more entertaining brand of football while consolidating our place in the Premier League with another mid table finish.

Looking back objectively on the season only the most difficult to please supporter would dispute the view that the on-field achievement outperformed all expectations. A collection of inspired transfers and a more expansive style resulted in a creditable 7th place finish that included notable victories over Arsenal, both Manchester clubs, Chelsea and a double over Liverpool that finally ended the 50 year hoodoo at Anfield.

The flip side of taking welcome points from teams that we had traditionally rolled over to were the tame defeats to Bournemouth and Newcastle and dropped points against Villa, Norwich, Stoke and the Baggies. Had we beaten the teams we might be expected to beat then it was maybe the golden opportunity to secure the holy grail of a top 4 finish.

Now it is one year later and we begin the new season with relatively short odds for a top 6 finish and well off the radar as relegation candidates. As a long time hope-for-the-best, expect-the-worst type of supporter I wonder whether this optimism is justified considering how much cash is being flashed by all and sundry during the transfer window.

Tottenham Transfer Shopping
Tottenham Transfer Shopping

The 2016/17 season has new brooms at both Manchester clubs and Chelsea while Klopp begins to sweep away all of Brendan’s dead wood at Liverpool. Each of these clubs have been spending big as manager’s frantically attempt to build squads in their own image and will likely continue to do so until the window (slams) shut. In North London, Levy’s usual haphazard approach to transfers with all the discernment of a finalist is a Supermarket Sweep competition is now tempered by a competent manager advising him to steer clear of anything past its best before date. Over at Arsenal there is even the possibility of the Gunners making a late appearance at the transfer party as soon as Wenger remembers where he left his ATM card.

We look to have made some shrewd additions to the squad but I don’t believe we have adequately resolved the full back and striker situation. This will be a tough second season for Slaven Bilic as far as Premier League position is concerned especially with the prospect of Europa League to contend with. My heart wants glory but my head sees a repeat of last year’s seventh place at best. Here are my full selected standings.

1 Man City
2 Man Utd
3 Tottenham
4 Liverpool
5 Arsenal
6 Chelsea
7 West Ham
8 Leicester
9 Everton
10 Crystal Palace
11 Stoke
12 Southampton
13 West Brom
14 Bournemouth
15 Sunderland
16 Middlesbrough
17 Swansea
18 Watford
19 Burnley
20 Hull

Where Will We Finish This Season?

My prediction of what the final league table will look like come May.

Last season, one of the country’s biggest bookmakers, William Hill, offered a prize of £50 million to anybody who could (before the season began) correctly predict the final Premier League table. If nobody was successful then £100,000 was on offer to the closest forecast. It cost £2 to make each entry, so they only needed 50,000 entrants to cover their costs if nobody could correctly list the finishing positions of the 20 clubs.

Bookmakers OddsAnd of course nobody did bag the £50 million. The odds of correctly forecasting 20 different clubs to finish in a particular order is, according to my calculations, somewhere between 2 and 3 million million millions to one. That’s 18 noughts. I’d call it trillions but that’s not strictly correct. Even if you thought that the top six were cast in stone, and the 14 other clubs had no chance of coming out on top, then perming the favoured six in any order followed by the remaining 14 in every combination would still result in around 63 million millions to one.

Yes it’s virtually impossible, especially with surprises such as the final positions of Leicester and Chelsea last season. To make a comparison, the odds of coming up with the Lotto jackpot are around 45 million to one, and the EuroMillions 116 million to one.

Nonetheless for a bit of fun I’ll have a go, so here is my forecast for the final Premier League table next May:

  1. Manchester City
  2. Manchester United
  3. Liverpool
  4. Chelsea
  5. Arsenal
  6. Tottenham
  7. West Ham
  8. Everton
  9. Southampton
  10. Leicester
  11. Swansea
  12. Stoke
  13. Crystal Palace
  14. Middlesbrough
  15. Bournemouth
  16. West Brom
  17. Sunderland
  18. Watford
  19. Burnley
  20. Hull

I’ll challenge my fellow writer, Geoff, to make his prediction and we’ll see who is closest next May. I reckon we’ll finish seventh, the same as last season. I hope that we win it of course, but I’m not sure that we are quite ready to challenge the big boys just yet. But I hope I’m wrong! The bookmakers make us eighth favourites to win the Premier League.