Category: Preview

If it wasn’t for the remote mathematical possibility that either of these two sides could still be relegated then this match would be about as pointless as they come.  In fact the fixture computer has come up with a set of Saturday matches so uninspiring that an afternoon spent in the shed sorting your tools into alphabetical order sounds a more attractive proposition.  Today’s five Premier League matches feature only two teams from the top half of the table.

It could be pointed out that merit based payments mean an extra £2 million per league placing but I doubt that this is much of a motivating factor for the average minted footballer.  If there is only pride to play for then it could be a very drab ninety minutes, even though Slav insists that we are treating every game like a cup final (if anyone can remember what one of those is like!).

People are talking about who is safe but it is irrelevant. We have four games left, a big game on Saturday and we are looking for points. There is a gap between us and mid-table, it is a small gap but with four games to go we are talking about 12 points and we have to concentrate on our next game.  We are approaching them as four cup finals.

– Slaven Bilic is looking for points

The supercomputer at Euro Club Index has crunched the numbers and by their reckoning we will finish the season in 15^th place with 42 points, two points and four places below today’s opponents at the blandly dubbed bet365 stadium.  The computer further concludes a 29% chance of a West Ham victory this afternoon, without which the opportunity to accumulate the predicted end of season total of 42 points appears improbable.

Head to Head

With Stoke situated close to the unhappy hunting grounds of the north-west it is unsurprising that we have a second rate record from our visits over the years, having won just ten times from thirty eight attempts.  The last three away victories, all by the only goal of the game, came in 2005 (Bobby Zamora), 2009 (Diego Tristan) and 2013 (Jack Collison).  Despite West Ham’s striker woes, the Hammers have only failed to score in three away matches this season (Arsenal, Everton and Leicester) so perhaps another solid defensive display will allow us to sneak one more one-nil success.

Team News

Mark Noble and Sam Byram return to the squad after suspension and apparently Robert Snodgrass and Sofiane Feghouli are also available again (if anyone is interested).  On the other hand Cheikhou Kouyate, Winston Reid, Arthur Masuaku and Diafra Sakho are all reported as injury doubts for the Hammers.

If everyone was available my only change would be Sakho for the hapless Jonathan Calleri and, maybe, Byram in for Edmilson Fernandes.  I would stick with Havard Nordtveit and Kouyate in central midfield as the Kouyate/ Noble partnership has proved not to work on countless occasions and Nordtveit/ Noble would be criminally slow.  I fully expect, however, that Noble will be back in the starting eleven.

The mood’s fine. We’re looking forward to the game tomorrow. It’s an important one for us clearly.

– Mark Hughes in inspiring form

Stoke may be missing Jon Walters who has regularly been a thorn in the side of West Ham and for the determinists/ fatalists among us the disturbing fact that Saido Berahino has scored in three of his four previous starts against West Ham but hasn’t scored a Premier League goal since February 27th 2016 will have the alarm bells ringing.

The Man in the Middle

Appropriately for West Ham, it is injury prone Lee Probert from Wiltshire refereeing today’s game.  Probert missed all last season due to injury and takes charge of only his second Premier League game of 2016/17.  His last meeting with the Hammers was in the unforgettable 3-0 victory at White Hart Lane in 2013.  In a grand total of twenty eight games this season he has issued a conservative sixty four yellow and four red cards.

I have to own up. In the recent past when Tony Pulis was their manager, one team that I disliked intensely for their style of play was Stoke City. I couldn’t knock their effectiveness, but I just hated to watch games against them, especially in the days of the Delap long throw. Under Mark Hughes they are not favourites of mine either, but their style has improved somewhat, they have some skillful players mixed with their uncompromising ones, and they have become a fixture in finishing in the top half of the Premier League.

For the past three seasons they have finished in a very creditable ninth position, and with just four games to go of this campaign they sit eleventh, just one point away from ninth, which must be the aim of a cluster of clubs, including ourselves, who can all reach this place in the table with a good finishing run.

A bit like ourselves, they began the season disastrously, and at the end of September after six games, they had been beaten four times and drawn two games to leave them in the relegation zone at this early stage. But they did have some difficult fixtures at the beginning, and a kinder group of opponents, including Sunderland, Hull, Swansea and ourselves, enabled them to win three and draw two of their next five games, picking up 11 points in the process and found them climbing the table rapidly by Guy Fawkes night. Two wins in their next three games against Watford and Burnley meant even further progress upwards by the start of December, but then the remaining fixtures of 2016 yielded just two points from five games.

Eight points in the first four games of 2017 meant another upturn in league position, but their defeat on 4 February at home to West Brom, and our win at Southampton that weekend, meant that we sat in 9^th place in the table, two points clear of them in 11^th. Then they picked up 7 points in their next four games, including a creditable goalless draw at Manchester City (who had put 4 goals past them in their first home game of the season at the Bet 365 stadium). Since then they have had another poor run of results winning just one (at home to Hull), and losing five of their last six games.

So what can we conclude from this brief analysis of our opponents this weekend in trying to predict the outcome of the game? Not a lot really. Generally they have beaten weaker teams, and lost to the top teams, in a roller coaster of a season with inconsistency to match our own. Recent history of fixtures against them does not bode particularly well. This will be our tenth meeting with them since our return to the top flight. In the nine matches played, Stoke have won three, and five have ended as draws; our solitary victory was a 1-0 win on their ground in March 2013 thanks to a Jack Collison goal.

We should have beaten them in the final game of last season when a stirring first half performance should have seen us go in at the interval with more than a one goal advantage given to us by Michail Antonio. But the euphoria of the final game at Upton Park just a few days earlier wore off, and in typical West Ham fashion we allowed them back into the game with an equaliser early in the second half, before Diouf wrapped up the three points with a goal two minutes from the end. It was a game that mirrored the final fixture of the previous season (against Everton) where we took the lead and had control of the game before conceding an equaliser against the run of play, and then lost it in stoppage time.

At least we have halted our run of five consecutive defeats by picking up five points from our unbeaten last three games, edging us towards safety. We are not quite there yet, and could do with another point or three to ensure mathematical safety. Will we get them this weekend? I certainly hope so, but in all honesty I really don’t know.

The general consensus among both fans and pundits alike is that West Ham will survive this Premier League season even though the ‘job is not yet done’.  The four point haul from the last two outings, though hardly impressive, has West Ham within touching distance of salvation.  For the job to be officially completed, however, we may well have to rely on those below us to lose a few more games as it is by no means certain, looking at the remaining games, that we have the ability to add to the current 37 point total.  Survival will be due to the inadequacies of others rather than as a result of our own endeavours.  I do not see the Hammers gathering any points in May which leaves this week’s home encounter with Everton and next week’s visit to Stoke as opportunities to bolster the manager’s failing reputation.

Historically games against Everton invariably end in disappointment, both home and away.  Injuries, suspensions, tantrums and incompetence only exaggerate the challenge facing the Hammers today.  The straw to clutch at is that Everton are not so hot on the road but with a strong finish possibly earning them a top six place (as Arsenal falter and Manchester United possibly put all their eggs into the Europa League basket) they will most definitely fancy their chances today.  After a disappointing 2015/16 season, where they finished 11^th with 47 points, Everton have improved significantly under new manager Ronald Koeman and look to have a much sounder view of building for the future than our own club, which continues to blindly stumble from crisis to crisis.  The challenge facing Everton, though, will be holding on to their most important players.

Head to Head

After Arsenal, the two Merseyside clubs have been the most successful visitors to West Ham over the years.  In 60 meetings in London, Everton have won 23 to West Ham’s 22 with 15 drawn games.   This century West Ham have won just two of fourteen home league fixtures against the Toffees.

West Ham and Everton are competitors for the dubious record of the most all-time Premier League defeats.  At present the lead is shared by Aston Villa and Everton at 333 defeats with the Hammers just behind with 331 (despite having played over 100 games less).  There is an excellent chance that we can snatch top spot here by end of the season.

Team News

West Ham are without Ogbonna, Obiang, Antonio, Carroll (all injured), Noble and Byram (both suspended).  Reid and Sakho are rumoured to be available but difficult to know whether they will be risked.  As with most of the season the lack of options at right back and striker continue to haunt us.

If Reid is fit, and assuming that Arbeloa will not be considered and we do not pull a surprise by playing a youngster (I am not sure what the current situation is with Reece Burke who recently played for the stiffs following a long injury layoff), then perhaps we need to go three at the back with Fernandes playing at right wing back.  My own inclination would be to play Nordtveit and Kouyate in central midfield in an attempt to add further protection to the back line.  If we concede too much space in midfield areas Everton will cut through at ease and Lukaku will have an afternoon’s target practice to look forward to.  Slav no doubt will have other ideas.  Our manager says that we have previous with playing either 3 or 4 at the back and he is right, we have demonstrated a lack of competence at both.

Up front the choice is likely between Sakho, with his lack of match fitness, or Calleri, with his lack of ability.  I read that Inter Milan had turned their attention to Calleri in their quest for additional fire power which I found highly amusing.  Even if Sakho is unlikely to last 90 minutes it would be better to deploy him from the start and take it from there.

There are two schools of thought on the goalkeeper situation: Bilic wants to stick with Randolph while everyone else believes that Adrian should be brought back.  Randolph must now be short of both form and confidence.

Everton have injuries to McCarthy and Besic and Enner Valencia is ineligible to play against his parent club.  Unfortunately for West Ham, Lukaku will be playing and aiming to score in his 10^th successive game against the Hammers.

I can only see this game ending one way and as I never like to predict a West Ham defeat I will abstain on this occasion.

Man in the Middle

Welcome Roger East from Wiltshire this afternoon.  Rarely sighted in the Premier League, East makes his second visit in five weeks to the London Stadium having previously been in charge of the game against Leicester.  In his 30 whistle blowing appearances this term he has been responsible for 129 Yellow Cards and 5 Red Ones.

After Leicester’s extremely unlikely interruption last season to how we expect the Premier League to look each year, then this time around normality has been resumed. The top six clubs in the league are the big 6, the ones way ahead of the others in terms of revenue, turnover, income, or whatever monetary measure you may care to use when assessing size. Our visitors this week, Everton, are doing their best to break into this club, a bit like we tried to last season. To give them their due they are hovering on the brink of sixth place, although they have played more games, and the matches are running out. However, if recent history is anything to go by they will be licking their lips at the prospect of visiting the London Stadium for the first time, to face a depleted, injury-stricken, and lacking confidence West Ham team, who have won just once in the last seven games.

The Toffeemen (how strange that name seems in the modern age) are so far ahead of the eighth-placed team that they are already assured of at least a seventh place finish, and could still finish higher. They hit the ground running at the beginning of the season with a draw and four wins in their first 5 games which put them in second place in the table, before stuttering in their next ten games, winning just once, when we visited them at the end of October. In a fairly scrappy game Lukaku (who else?) opened the scoring, before Barkley wrapped up the points in what turned out to be a relatively comfortable victory for them in the end. The defeat left us perilously close to the relegation zone at the time. Since then of course we have pulled away from it, before almost being dragged back into it in recent times. Everton were seventh on Boxing Day and have retained that position in the league since.

Everton’s home record is superb, having only lost one game, a 0-1 reverse to their Merseyside neighbours in December. Since that game, eight consecutive home matches have produced eight wins with 29 goals scored and just 6 conceded. Fortunately we are not playing them at Goodison Park, and although our home record is nothing to write home about, then much the same can be said about Everton on their travels in recent times. After two away wins in their opening four games (at West Brom and Sunderland) they have only won two further league games away from home, at Leicester in December, and Palace in January. But the fact that they haven’t won an away league game for more than three months is just the type of statistic that West Ham revel in, as we are masters at helping clubs to end poor runs of one sort or another.

This is Everton’s 63^rd consecutive season in the top flight of English football, a figure that coincides with my age, so nobody under the age of about 70 will remember them being anywhere other than at the top table. Only Arsenal have had a longer uninterrupted run in the Premier League, and before that Division One. The other teams currently recognised as the top six, namely the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham have all had a spell outside of the top division in that time. So Everton can be applauded for their consistency and longevity to remain at the top.

During that uninterrupted run they have had some success, being league champions on four occasions and FA Cup winners three times. Like ourselves they have also won a European trophy, the Cup Winners Cup, in 1985. But their last major trophy win was the FA Cup in 1995, and their last league title was 30 years ago, demonstrating the difficulty of breaking the stranglehold of the top clubs. But then again, for all their dominance in the 1980’s, their neighbours Liverpool haven’t won the title since 1990 themselves, the top honours since the formation of the Premier League being shared by the two Manchester clubs, Arsenal and Chelsea, with just two interlopers, Leicester last year, and Blackburn in 1994-5 (and where are they now?).

So what can we expect this weekend? Well one thing looks a certainty. Lukaku has scored for Everton in each of his last nine appearances against us, so that is one run we would love to put an end to. We’ve only beaten Everton once in our last 17 Premier League meetings (the 3-2 win at Goodison, coming from two down after Lukaku missed a penalty). We haven’t beaten Everton at home in the Premier League since 2007 when a Bobby Zamora goal was the only goal of the game. Lukaku is the top scorer in the Premier League this season.

Everything points to an Everton victory, and the bookmakers recognise this making them the favourites to win the game despite their poor away form. We are a club in some disarray and need to get through to the end of this season and re-group. There needs to be major changes for us to get back to the type of season we had last year. So what do I expect? This time with no real logic or evidence to suggest it will happen, I fancy the boot to be on the other foot, and hope for a 2-1 win completely against the odds. What are the chances?

We are all familiar with the cartoon character who has  run off the edge of a cliff, legs continuing to race furiously, but who is suspended in midair defying the laws of gravity until finally noticing their own predicament.   That is how I see Sunderland’s plight right now.  We all know what is going to happen but they have just not quite accepted the reality.  Very soon they will be hurtling at spend towards the Championship and, no doubt, once at the bottom a huge anvil will land on David Moyes head creating an enormous bump to appear on the top.  They have, of course, teetered on the brink for many seasons but this time there can be no cartoon braces snagged on a tree trunk to catapult them  back to safety as they did under the guidance of old friends Di Canio and Allardyce previously.

Sunderland have now lost six and drawn one in a goal-less run of seven league matches.  In fact, they have scored just once in the eleven games since their 4-0 win at Crystal Palace in early February.   If only there was a fixture coming up against a perennially obliging visiting team, with an even worse defensive record than the bottom placed hosts, who were also missing their three best players through injury and their captain through suspension!

It’s a big game for us, Sunderland are desperate for a win and we are looking to win to secure or get closer to securing safety.  Every win gives you a boost, especially after five defeats in a row. The confidence is back but the belief was permanent and we never lost it.

– Slaven Bilic

Having put an end to their own losing run last week, West Ham still need a few extra points to extinguish any lingering concerns about joining Sunderland in the abyss.  As I don’t believe we will win any points in May this should be one of the games where we can add to our meagre points total.  Only once in 38 match Premier League history has a team with 36 points or more at this stage of the season been relegated (Birmingham in 2010/11) but nevertheless it is better to err on the side of caution here.  Expect a somewhat sterile game today, low on creativity that is won by whoever delivers the better set pieces.

Head to Head

For somewhere so far north our record at Sunderland is far from our worst.  We have won eleven, drawn nine and lost twenty of 40 encounters meetings in the far north-east.  The last away win was in March 2014 when goals from Andy Carroll and Mo Diame steered the Hammers to a 2-1 victory.  The most recent double over the Black Cats was in 2008/09 when Gainfranco Zola’s West Ham won at the Stadium of Light courtesy of a Valon Behrami strike.  The Hammers will be looking for their third league double of the season.

Team News

Michail Antonio joins Pedro Obiang and Angelo Ogbonna on the beach as he too is ruled out for the remainder of the season.  Winston Reid is still unavailable through injury and Mark Noble begins his suspension.  Sam Byram and Aaron Cresswell are reported to have recovered from knocks and should be available for selection.

As ever, the mystifying selections of Slaven Bilic are difficult to predict.  Does he bring in Havard Nordtveit as Noble’s replacement and play two defensively minded central midfielders to protect the leaky defence?  Does he bend to popular demand and bring in birthday boy Edmilson Fernandes (21 today) but play him in an unfamiliar defensive role?  Will he consider bringing back Cresswell but playing Arthur further forward as a proper left sided midfield player?  What role will potential match-winning benchwarmers Carroll and Diafra Sakho play?  Does Jonathan Calleri deserve another chance after apparently running around a lot last weekend (are we seriously considering giving this guy a contract)?

I’m definitely hurting and I’m certainly not enjoying the feeling of being down here. But part of football management is that you don’t always get it good. I’ve had some really good times and at the moment, it’s sore. I don’t enjoy losing every Saturday and going home to the family.

– David Moyes

No doubt there will also be more game time for the under-performing and uninspiring likes of Andre Ayew,  Sofiane Feghouli and Robert Snodgrass in there as well.   You really want to get excited about the build up to a game but sometimes it is very difficult.

Sunderland are missing Bryan Oviedo through injury and Sebastian Larsson through suspension but most Hammer eyes will be on pantomime villain Jermaine Defoe.   Defoe has scored six goals in fifteen Premier League games against West Ham but none of these have been in three attempts for Sunderland.  The footballing gods can be very devious individuals and who would bet against Defoe ending both his teams and his own personal drought today.

The Man in the Middle

For the fifth time this season we encounter Andre Marriner from the West Midlands.  Marriner was in charge of defeats away to Manchester City and Chelsea, an away win at Swansea and a drawn home game with Stoke.  In a grand total of 32 games this season he has presented 128 yellow cards and six red ones (although only one in the Premier League).

Barring a miraculous turnaround in form, and a comeback of Lazarus proportions, Sunderland’s ten consecutive seasons in the Premier League, including some narrow escapes in recent years, is about to come to an end. After 31 games, and with just seven to go, they have only won five games, drawn five, and lost on 21 occasions. They are currently ten points adrift of safety, with problems at both ends of the pitch. They have conceded 56 goals, which is one fewer than ourselves, and we have had considerable problems in this respect, too.

But they have only scored 24 times, which is two more than Middlesbrough, and certainly not enough to win many games. Our old friend Jermaine Defoe has scored 14 of them, van Aanholt who is now a Palace player managed three from left back, and only Anichebe with 3 has scored more than a solitary goal, which has been achieved by just three other players. Where would they be without Defoe’s contribution?

Incredibly, they scored four goals in one match away from home at Palace at the beginning of February, but that was their last win, with the previous four victories against Bournemouth, Hull, Leicester and Watford all coming within the space of about six weeks in November and December. Added to the controversy of Moyes’ post-match interview with a female journalist, they are in club in deep trouble for which there seems no way out.

But, as we all know, we are famous for ending a long losing streak of a team we are about to play! They haven’t even scored a single Premier League goal in the seven games (four of them at home) played since the win over Palace, conceding 14 in that time, and picking up just a single point in a goalless draw at home to Burnley. Surely, everything points to a West Ham victory and clean sheet for the second game running, doesn’t it?

Michail Antonio is now out for the season, but we would hope that the return of Carroll and Sakho, both on the bench for the win over Swansea last week, and incredibly it seems, not fit enough to play any part in that game, will improve our fire power, although I wouldn’t bet against Calleri retaining his place in the starting line-up, although he has done nothing yet to convince me of his ability to score goals. The manager seems to like him though. Our £20 million pound striker Ayew hasn’t yet looked much more convincing either, and neither Snodgrass, who hasn’t shown his ability to score like he managed at Hull, or Feghouli, look capable of goals either.

Our team lacks pace all round, and despite the vocal support for our manager shown at the London Stadium last week, I haven’t yet worked out our strategy in breaking down opposition defences. Do we have one? My only real concern about playing Sunderland is the speed and awareness in front of goal of Defoe against our less than quick central defenders.

Only Kouyate with his special goal at the end of an excellent move last week, and Lanzini, who is showing good form at the moment, look capable of providing the spark to create chances. Surely a victory is assured; one that would take us up to 39 points and almost certain safety (although not yet mathematical). Mark Noble has been quoted as saying that 39 should be enough. I hope that they don’t think that it is job done when (if) we reach that figure. But, you never know, we could even find ourselves in the top half of the table by Saturday evening.

I reckon that, despite being less than convincing in front of goal, we will win comfortably, and I forecast a 2-0 win. If ever there was a game that we should win away from home, then this surely is it?

When West Ham won 4-1 at the Liberty Stadium on Boxing Day it was the final nail in the coffin for the short-lived managerial career of Bob Bradley. It would be one of those not so rare football ironies if the visitors should return the favour this afternoon.

In the aftermath of Bradley’s sacking Swansea appointed relative unknown Paul (I Hear You’ve Been a Naughty Boy) Clement as manager.  Following an encouraging start the Swans form has started to dip again recently whereby their current record is only slightly better than our own. What once looked like it might be uninteresting end of season routine has suddenly become a ‘six-point’ showdown between two of the clubs battling to avoid what looks increasingly like the final relegation position.

We wanted to do it before now. I didn’t smell this, I didn’t think we would lose five games. But it is in our hands and that is the best you can ask for. Your destiny is in your hands. We are playing a team we have beaten, a team that is five points below us. We have big belief.

– Slaven Bilic

The Hammers losing streak has now reached five equalling that achieved by Avram Grant’s side in 2010/11 but still short of the record nine consecutive league defeats set in 1932; a run that included a 2-1 reverse against today’s opponents in a season that ended with West Ham’s lowest ever league position – one point and one place away from demotion to the third tier.  One record that the Hammers can realistically break this season is to go top of the all-time Premier League defeats table; only a further three defeats are required to overtake the current total of 333 shared by Aston Villa and Everton.

Head to Head

The Head to Head record for this encounter is very much bossed by the Hammers and in 25 home league games we have only lost on two occasions (1956 and 2016). Last season’s victory being a huge disappointment in the last ever Saturday game at the Boleyn Ground; with any luck it will be another 60 years before the next defeat.  A win today would give West Ham their first double over Swansea since the 1982/83 season and only the second double of the season (the other being Crystal Palace).

Team News

There are doubts about the fitness of all the West Ham players but only Andy Carroll and Michail Antonio face late fitness tests. Assuming Carroll and Antonio are available, and with Diafra Sakho getting a run out in midweek, we have the appearance of a team carrying a goal threat against the side with the leakiest defence in the league. Much debate about who will get the gloves this afternoon and it would be no surprise to see Senor Adrian return.

We’re in the bottom three and there are seven games to go, and West Ham are a team who have had their own troubles recently, so we have to go there believing we can get a result.

– Paul Clement

Swansea hope to be able to welcome back Fernando Llorente after an ankle injury but may be with out Kyle Naughton who is suffering with a hamstring problem. If Naughton is unavailable, Leroy Fer may be moved to right back which makes it a shame that we have no left sided attacking player.  Despite the negativity I am opting for a rousing 3-1 Hammer’s win.

Man in the Middle

Ain’t it good to know we’ve got Kevin Friend officiating today. A relative stranger to our games Friend was in charge of the league game at home to Manchester City several months ago. In 28 games this season he has waved a friendly 109 yellow cards and a mere two red ones.

Geoff Hopkins summed up the Arsenal game perfectly in his article Five Cruel Lessons From Defeat @ Arsenal, and I have little to add to that. I have been following our team for almost sixty years and I had a quick look back over that time to ascertain how many times we have lost five league games in a row.

The first time it happened was in 1960-61. Ted Fenton was the manager, but he was sacked after three of the games, and a selection committee of the board were responsible for the next two losses. Ron Greenwood took over for the final four games of the season (none of which were won) and we finished 16^th (out of 22).

It happened twice when Greenwood was in charge. The first time in 1966-67, the season after England’s World Cup win, we lost seven (the most I think!) on the trot at one stage. Again we finished 16^th (out of 22). It occurred again in 1970-71 when we lost five times in a row. That season we finished 20^th (out of 22). We weren’t relegated, as only two teams went down at that time.

John Lyall also managed it twice; although neither of these happened in the two seasons we were relegated with him in charge. In 1976-77 we escaped with a 4-2 victory over Manchester United in the final game, and in 1986-87 we finished 15^th.

Billy Bonds was manager in the ill-fated Bond Scheme season (1991-92) which culminated in us finishing at the foot of the table. We lost six in a row at one stage that season. With Harry Redknapp, and more surprisingly Glenn Roeder in charge we never did manage to lose five league games in a row in any season.

In 2006-07 it happened twice, and we still avoided the drop in the season of the “Great Escape.” Firstly, it happened when Alan Pardew was manager, and he was sacked just a few weeks afterwards. Secondly, we lost five in a row under Alan Curbishley, the fifth one being the heartbreaking 4-3 loss at home to the North London neighbours who we don’t like. But after that game we won seven out of the final nine fixtures to complete a remarkable escape.

In 2009-10 under Gianfranco Zola we lost six league games in a row at one stage, and our likeable (but ineffective) manager departed soon afterwards. And then in the following season the inspirational appointment of Avram Grant by our new owners proved to be anything but, and a run of five consecutive league defeats was followed by his P45 a couple of weeks later.

Just like under Redknapp and Roeder, it didn’t happen under Big Sam, and we had to wait until this current run for it to happen under Slaven Bilic. I dread to contemplate our fate if the run extends to seven to match 1966-67!

We now need to end this losing streak, and hopefully come up with a win against struggling Swansea. After two dreadful home defeats to ourselves (4-1) and Bournemouth (3-0) to finish 2016, our visitors today went on an excellent run to move out of the relegation zone, winning five of their first eight games of 2017, which included away victories at Palace and Liverpool, and home wins over Southampton, Leicester and Burnley. The tide appeared to have turned under new manager Paul Clement, but the last four games have seen them pick up just a solitary point in a goalless home draw with fellow strugglers (and potentially doomed) Middlesbrough.

The games where they went down were 2-1 at Hull, who are having a bit of a revival themselves under a new manager who hasn’t lost at home (for years!), and 2-0 at Bournemouth. And then finally in midweek they looked to have sewn up three valuable points against our disliked aforementioned friends from North London, only for them to concede three heartbreaking goals in the 89^th, 92^nd and 95^th minutes, and as a consequence slip back into the relegation zone. It is unusual (almost unheard of) for me to cheer Tottenham goals but I have to admit that I did on Wednesday night. The late turnaround meant that we go into the game today five points ahead of them (and so the drop zone too), instead of the three points gap that was prematurely quoted on social media by so many of our Twitter followers prior to the final whistle.

One quote that I read today, was that teams who have conceded at least 66 goals after 31 games in a Premier League season have always been relegated. For anyone who wasn’t aware of this (well known!!) statistic, it has happened six times before to Swindon, Barnsley, Fulham, Ipswich and Wolves (twice).

Their top scorer Llorente is likely to return after injury and there could be an Ayew playing for both sides. It would be good to see Jordan Ayew repeat his performance for Villa against us at Upton Park when he, unprovoked, for no apparent reason elbowed Cresswell in full view of everybody and had an early bath (showers these days!). Sigurdsson is an extremely talented player, and one of the few that I have seen us linked with in the past who I would like to see in our side.

The last two fixtures between us have ended 4-1 to the away side. Few can forget how they gave us a drubbing in the penultimate game held at (fortress!) Upton Park, but we repeated that feat ourselves on Boxing Day just over three months ago with goals from Ayew (his first for us), Reid, Antonio and Carroll.

In view of the importance of this game, described as a massive six-pointer, I expect a nervy game, especially in view of the recent form of both sides. I don’t expect a third 4-1 in a row, but hope that we can halt our recent slide down the table and edge the game by the odd goal in three. I anticipate quite an atmosphere, especially if we can score the first goal, and you never know, a win today and at Sunderland next week, and with other results going our way, we could find ourselves back in the top half of the table by next weekend! I’m not sure that’s where we deserve to be, but, as they say, the league table never lies!

And for all West Ham fans, a topical selection in today’s Grand National, Blaklion, who will carry a few of my hard earned pounds!

After last night’s results, West Ham travel to The Emirates having dropped to 15^th place in the Premier League table.  By the end of the day it is not unthinkable that we will have fallen further in the standings as we have become one of a handful of clubs competing to avoid the third relegation place.  A few weeks back the spectre of relegation was viewed as a mathematical rather than a realistic possibility.  With key players unavailable and with a dispirited and largely disorganised side on the slide after a run of four consecutive defeats it is surprising that there the alarm bells are not ringing even more loudly.  As relegation rivals knuckle down to scramble clear through hard work we appear to be meandering dangerously and obliviously towards the drop.  Whether Slaven Bilic can conjure up a cunning escape plan that does not rely on other club’s performing even worse remains to be seen.

Fellow under-fire manager Arsene Wenger must have uttered a silent “magnifique” when he spotted that his next opponents were the obliging eastenders.  Although Arsenal’s record this season is identical to the same stage last time around they are further off the pace for their customary Champion’s League qualification.  Having seen off the Hammers with aplomb at the London Stadium in December today’s encounter will be seen as a perfect opportunity to set off on a strong finish to the season.

Arsenal have their problems, but they are still a team with a lot of pace, a team you can’t afford to lose the ball against in your own half because the transition and pace they have up front is unbelievable.  When they lose the ball they are very vulnerable because they leave a big space behind which you can use.

– Slaven Bilic

I was equally pessimistic going in to the corresponding fixture last year as West Ham, fresh from their tame Europa Cup exit, kicked off their Premier League campaign at The Emirates.  As we know it turned out to be the first in a number of surprise results as a relatively unknown Dimitri Payet and a young Reece Oxford helped plot a shock 2-0 win for the Hammers.  The future looked bright as the dark days of Fat Sam were replaced with the fresh air of an apparently bright and tactically astute new manager.  How quickly football can change!

Head to Head

Last year’s victory was the solitary Hammer’s win in the last fifteen meetings against the Gunners, which otherwise have seen eleven defeats and just three draws.  Both teams are on a sorry run of form with West Ham having taken just two points from the last six games and Arsenal slightly better with four.

There have, however, been a few memorable and unlikely successes away to Arsenal over the years including that permanent record of being the last away team to win at Highbury and the first to win at The Emirates. Getting a result tonight would rank alongside both events and could even go down in history as a minor great-escape for both the club and Slaven Bilic.

Team News

West Ham welcome back Michail Antonio for tonight’s game with his place in the treatment room being taken by Aaron Cresswell.  There is much speculation about the return of Diafra Sakho with the player claiming he is raring to go while board and manager are voicing a more cautious stance with talk of a place on the bench.  I wonder what Sakho is like at left back?

The major problem for West Ham is how their ageing central defenders and largely plodding midfield will contain an Arsenal side that attack with pace and movement.  In terms of style Arsenal and Manchester City have much in common and both have a tendency to open up our defence with ease.  To have any hope West Ham have to deny space in the central areas and to break quickly when in possession.  I doubt we have the players or level of fitness to do either over the course of 90 minutes.

If we show the same spirit we showed against City, we will win football games. We have played 20 games unbeaten this season, and I think it’s a good opportunity to remind people we are not fighting to not go down – we are fighting to have a positive end to the season.

– Arsene Wenger

Arthur Masuaku coming in for Cresswell does not weaken the team but how the remaining spare part players (Ayew, Snodgrass, Feghouli) are scattered into the line-up will be revealing.

Arsenal are without Laurent Koscielny and have a problem in the keeper position with Cech out and Ospina doubtful; perhaps a recall for Pat Jennings or David Seaman would be enough on the night.  Otherwise the Gunners are at full strength.

Man in the Middle

The referee is Martin Atkinson form West Yorkshire.  Atkinson has refereed three previous West Ham games this season, a home defeat to Watford and away wins at Palace (where he sent off Cresswell) and Middlesbrough.  In 33 games this season his record is 114 Yellow cards but just the two reds.

Four consecutive defeats in a row. Two points from the last six league games. Tough statistics to look at, so we now need an easy fixture to turn the tide. And what could be better than a visit to the Emirates where we comfortably won last season, 2-0?

But first, back to the Hull game. Once again my belief in statistics often having little bearing on the outcome of a game was proved to be a sound one in a number of areas. We took the lead, and most teams that do this go on to win the game. A quick look back through the season, and I reckon that we have dropped around 20 points from a winning position. Without checking on all teams in the league, I think it would be safe to assume that no club has a worse record than that.

I haven’t counted up how many goals we have conceded from set pieces, but the Hull winner was headed in direct from a corner. In our recent winless run it happened twice against Leicester, once against both West Brom and Bournemouth, and again in this game. Why can we not defend set pieces? Time and time again this happens. Do we practice defending set pieces, especially corners at training sessions? Who is responsible for our defence coaching? Why can’t we learn from our mistakes? Rumour has it that Rio Ferdinand offered his services to assist with our defence coaching and was turned down. If that is true, then I find it amazing that we could reject such an offer with the state of our defending. Or are our players just not good enough? If we are not top of the league in conceding goals from set pieces then I’ll bet we are at least in a Champions League position.

Once again we conceded a relatively late goal. How many times have we conceded goals in the last few minutes of games? How many teams have let in more goals in the last ten minutes? I don’t have the figures but I reckon we will be close to the top of this league too. We have now conceded 54 league goals. That puts us in the top 3 of that statistic too. Even Sunderland and Middlesbrough, the two favourites for the drop with the bookies, have let in fewer goals than we have.

OK, so we had more possession than Hull, completed more passes, had more shots, and more shots on target. It doesn’t matter. We lost the game. By all accounts it was arguably Hull’s worst performance in recent games. But it didn’t matter did it? They are now just 6 points behind us. And it could conceivably be just 3 after this midweek round of games. We now have just six clubs beneath us in the table, and it could possibly be 4 before we face Swansea next weekend in a game that is now taking on massive importance for us. A few weeks ago we surely couldn’t have envisaged this game as a “six pointer”. And we all remember what happened when they visited “fortress Upton Park” in our penultimate game there last season, don’t we?

But we won’t go down. Just consider the bookies odds. The bottom three are all odds-on to be relegated, and Swansea are just a shade better than evens. We are quoted as seventh favourites to go down at around 20-1. Bookies never get it wrong do they? They knew Trump would win in America, and the result of the referendum on Brexit would be Leave, and that the Tories would win the last election with an overall majority, didn’t they? Mmmmm!

I’m afraid I’ve lost my optimistic hat, and fear for us against Arsenal. Ignoring last season, they often give us a bit of a hammering at their place, and I noticed they withdrew Theo Walcott before the end of their game against Manchester City last weekend to keep him fresh for his usual goal or two against us. Can we match his pace with our defence? I’m surprised they didn’t try to buy back Podolski in the last transfer window to save him for the West Ham fixture where he frequently did well.

All season I’ve been predicting victories for us, often without any real evidence other than my support of the team, and my trusty optimistic hat, to back it up. This time I think we could be on the end of a big defeat. Arsenal haven’t had a good season themselves, but still retain a chance, albeit a receding one, of finishing in the top four for the 21^st season in a row, or whatever the number is. It is looking extremely likely that they will finish fifth or sixth. Their fans are not happy and want the manager out. Or at least quite a number of them do according to various polls. Our manager still retains a good level of support considering the season we’ve had, but increasingly some fans are turning. And this week he received a vote of confidence from the board. And we all know what frequently happens shortly after that, don’t we?

I am hoping for an unlikely win, but fear that we will do well to keep Arsenal down to three. Perhaps my hope can overcome my fear? What are the chances? The bookies give us around an 8-1 chance of winning the game. That’s not very generous based on our recent form. But who knows? Perhaps we will keep a clean sheet and Carroll will add to his 50 Premier League goals tally? Carroll to score the first goal and a repeat of last season’s 2-0 win is 275-1. Worth a few bob?