Category: Preview

If we want to avoid the ignominy of still propping up the Premier League table by the end of the next round of matches we will have to significantly improve upon our performances at St James Park in recent times. Without delving back too far, just looking at our results there in the 21^st century, we have played 13 games and won only once. That sole victory was courtesy of a Kevin Nolan goal in November 2012 in our first season back in the top flight under Sam Allardyce. Although that win was less than five years ago, it demonstrates the turnover of players at our club in that of the starting eleven, Reid, Carroll and Noble are the only three who are still at the club, and Collins is the only one of the seven substitutes still here.

Being quite disheartened by our record in the present century, I looked back to the twentieth century and found little comfort when assessing our historical visits to the North-East. We first played a top flight away game at Newcastle in 1923, the year we played in the first Wembley FA Cup Final. But we didn’t manage a win up there until fifty years later in 1973 when Ted MacDougall netted twice in a 2-1 victory. One more win in the 1970s in 1977 was by the margin of 3-2 with our goals scored by Jennings, Taylor and Pop Robson. In our record breaking 1985-86 campaign we won 2-1 with goals from McAvennie and Cottee (who else?), and our next win was 2-1 in 1989 when Keen and Ward hit the target. A 1-0 victory in the 1997-98 season came from a Stan Lazaridis goal, and we followed this up in the next season with our most emphatic win there, 3-0, with two goals from Ian Wright and another from Trevor Sinclair. In total we have won just seven league games at St James Park in around 50 attempts!

Our last visit there was in January 2016, the season before last, when we conceded two goals in the first quarter of an hour, before Jelavic pulled a goal back early in the second half. We ended up losing 2-1 and Newcastle were relegated that season.

In terms of Premier League status, the Geordies are a club on a similar level to ourselves, being one of the top ten clubs in terms of seasons spent in the top league. Only six clubs have been ever present in the top flight in the 25 years of its existence up to the end of last season, namely Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton. Aston Villa come next on 24, followed by Newcastle on 22, West Ham on 21, and Manchester City 20.

In that time they have been more successful than us, in that their highest placed finish is 2^nd (twice) (ours is 5^th), and they have finished in the top four on five occasions, although the last of those was in 2003. Since then they have been relegated twice, but bounced back at the first attempt both times.

Newcastle have made an equally ignominious start to ourselves, and in their first two games of the season they lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham, and then 1-0 at newly-promoted Huddersfield. So they have no points and have not scored a league goal this season. In addition they were dumped out of the EFL cup this week, losing 3-2 at home to Championship side Nottingham Forest.

But beware! In their entire history, Newcastle have only once failed to score in their first three top flight games, and also Rafael Benitez has never lost three consecutive Premier League games as a manager in England. But on the plus side, Chicarito has scored three goals in his last four league games against Newcastle when he has started, and the one that we really hope will continue is that Joe Hart has never been on the losing side in 16 league games against them.

The Sports Analytics Machine (SAM), the super-computer used to predict the outcome of football matches reckons that the game will end in a 1-1 draw. I am more hopeful, and the return of Lanzini, and the confidence of the team gained by our first win in midweek, will I believe lead to our first league win of the season, and only our eighth when visiting Newcastle. I’ll predict a 2-1 victory.

I am not sure what the opposite of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object is but we may well find out at St James’ Park this afternoon as both sides strive to improve on their 100% losing starts to the season.  Will the powder puff Newcastle attack overcome the wafer thin West Ham defence or will Geordie passion be extinguished by the Javier Hernandez get out of jail free card?  To claim that this a relegation six pointer before the blackberries have ripened is premature in the extreme but the outcome of today’s game could play a major part in deciding the Premier League sack race; or more precisely who the first manager to leave his post will be.  There is added intrigue in the form of persistent speculation linking Rafa Benitez as the next in line for the hot seat at West Ham.

In a cruel twist of fate I ended up watching both of Newcastle’s opening Premier League fixtures live on TV.  They were well beaten in the opener by a cruise control Tottenham with the Toon offering little once their initial enthusiasm had died down and Shelvey was deservedly sent-off.  The follow-up uninspiring encounter with Huddersfield was a more even, but drab, affair which was decided by the game’s only real quality moment when Huddersfield’s Aaron Mooy scored the only goal of the game.  There is clearly an air of smouldering doom surrounding Bentitez and his frustrations with player recruitment could result in a spontaneous eruption at any moment.

“What I think happened is they (Newcastle) tried but maybe they were unable to get those targets that they wanted.  Maybe they were thinking too big and those players, they didn’t want to come.”

– Slaven Bilic surely being ironic about Newcastle’s transfer policy

Both teams were in EFL Cup action during the week and, whereas the Hammers came through unscathed with a competent performance against League Two Cheltenham, Newcastle were dumped out, after extra time, at home to Championship Nottingham Forest; albeit with a definite second string line-up.  Whether West Ham will be buoyed by success or Newcastle humbled by defeat remains to be seen.

Head to Head

Newcastle hold the edge in the all-time record between the two clubs having won 40% of the 129 meetings to West Ham’s 31%.  In the last twelve encounters the Hammers have seen four wins, five defeats and three draws.

It has been a much more one-sided affair for games at St James’ Park with West Ham having won only nine times (and lost thirty six ) out of sixty five attempts.  In the last twelve away fixtures the solitary Hammers success was a 1-0 win, courtesy of a Kevin Nolan goal, in November 2012.  Even the last two away meetings when Newcastle were battling for survival both ended in relatively comfortable victories for the hosts.

Team News

Marko Arnautovic is suspended for West Ham but Winston Reid is the only senior player missing through injury.  This means not only the potential return of Manuel Lanzini but also a phenomenon rarer than a total solar eclipse with both Andy Carroll and Diafra Sakho available for selection at the same time.  Lanzini’s running and creativity have been sorely missed but he may have to settle for a place on the bench if deemed not yet ready to start.  It would be a surprise if Carroll is included in the match-day squad but who knows; he has faced his old club in West Ham colours five times but has so far defied football convention by failing to score.

Elsewhere Cheikhou Kouyate is set to return in a midfield where we will be able to assess the extent of Slaven Bilic’s marble lossage if he persists in selecting Mark Noble ahead of Pedro Obiang.  In defence we should expect the return of seven goal Joe Hart between the sticks and to see 34 year old James Collins start in place of 34 year old Jose Fonte.

“We will see if we can improve as much as we can this week. I will try to do my job.  How much can I improve the team? It depends on how well we work and how much the players can learn.”

– Rafa Benitez has the weight of the world on his shoulders

Newcastle are without the injured Karl Darlow,  DeAndre Yedlin, Paul Dummett and Florian Lejeune plus the suspended Shelvey.  The Toon could see a welcome return for Dwight Gayle who must be one of the most ineffective strikers in the Premier League.

Man in the Middle

Neil Swarbrick from Lancashire is today’s referee.  Swarbrick had a full set when refereeing three West Ham home games last season that saw a win against Palace, a draw with Middlesbrough and defeat to Liverpool.  This will be his second Premier League match of the season having previously officiated at the Everton v Stoke game on the opening weekend.

Predictions

BBC’s Lawro has gone for a 1-1 draw while Paul Merson has predicted a 2-0 win for the Hammers.

I see a number scenarios for this one depending on what happens during Newcastle’s expected early surge.  Whoever scores the opening goal will go on to win and provided that the Hammers do not get off to a typical slow start I can imagine a rare 1-0 victory to bring back from the north-east.

With no European distraction this year West Ham join the other Premier League also-rans to enter this season’s EFL Carabao Cup at the second round stage.   Theoretically the easiest domestic competition for a club like ours to win the cup has still been dominated by the big clubs over recent seasons with the ‘top six’ having lifted eleven of the last thirteen trophies.

In its various guises the League Cup is a competition that the Hammers have never won; the closest being losing finalists in 1966 and 1981 together with a handful of semi-final eliminations.  A tie against a Cheltenham side that just about managed to cling on to their Football League status at the death last season and are currently sitting in 20^th spot in League Two should be a formality for any Premier League club; although West Ham have endured embarrassing exits in the past to the likes of Darlington, Rotherham, Stockport (twice), Chesterfied and Aldershot.  With the original home draw having been switched to an away game, to accommodate the London Stadium re-configuration, the potential banana-skin-ometer may well have slipped closer to ‘upset’ than might otherwise have been the case.

The Hammers saw off Cheltenham (then in League One) at the same stage of the competition in 2013 when goals from Ricardo Vaz Te and Ravel Morrison helped secure a 2-1 victory at Upton Park.  Although Cheltenham are relative newcomers to the football league there have been a cluster of Hammer’s connections with Cheltenham over the years: former West Ham players Bobby Gould and Martin Allen both briefly sat in the manager’s seat at Whaddon Road in 2003 and 2008 respectively; Michail Antonio made his senior league debut for Cheltenham, while on loan from Reading, during Allen’s reign; West Ham academy players Jamie Victory, Grant McCann, Josh Payne, Emmanuel Onariase and current U21 star Alex Pike all had loan spells with Cheltenham with Victory and McCann going on to enjoy extended careers with The Robins.

Team News

There has been much made already about teams fielding weakened sides in last night’s first crop of EFL Round Two matches.  Quite why teams that have no hope of winning anything else do this is a mystery to me. Does it seriously affect Premier League survival chances?

On the evidence to date it is difficult to see how West Ham could field a weakened defence but we can expect to see first outings of the season for Adrain, James Collins and Sam Byram tonight.  Elsewhere, Diafro Sakho will probably be a starter as will Edmilson Fernandes and there may be call-ups for some of the U21 players who featured in the Premier League 2 win over Spurs on Monday, such as Nathan Holland and Toni Martinez.  I would have added  Domingos Quina but he appears to have been locked away in a safe house with Manuel Lanzini until the transfer window has closed.  Lanzini, Chiekhou Kouyate, Andy Carroll and Winston Reid will not feature due to injury, Arnautovic is suspended and Antonio is unlikely to be risked ahead of the relegation six-pointer at the weekend!

Cheltenham have an injury concern over forward Jerell Sellars but are otherwise at full strength.

Man in the Middle

Tonight’s referee is Oliver Langford from the West Midlands.  Langford does most of his officiating in the Championship and can boast one previous encounter with the Hammers when he took control of the 4-1 victory at Bloomfield Road against Blackpool in February 2012.  A match where he sent of Robert Green for denying a goal-scoring opportunity that saw Henri Lansbury take over in goal as there was no keeper on the bench.

Prediction

It is highly unlikely that we will see a runaway victory tonight but the Hammers have to have enough class to get through this one.  A victory but only by the odd goal.

The team that has gone six games at home without a goal plays the team that, on last week’s evidence, look like they wouldn’t be able to score in a month of Sundays.  So a goal-fest at the St Mary’s Stadium would be improbable were it not for the Hammer’s obliging nature in ending the dismal sequences of the other clubs.

Most West Ham supporters would consider the Hammers a bigger club than the Saints although this has not been in evidence over recent years.  Southampton pipped West Ham for automatic promotion in the 2011/12 Championship campaign and have finished higher in the Premier League in each of the last four seasons.  Despite finishing in a creditable eighth spot last season, the south coast club elected to change managers and now have a new boss in Argentine Mauricio Pellegrino, who has been described as a ‘breath of fresh air’ by his playing staff.

“They know they are not only following West Ham but ‘living’ West Ham. Those fans, they know how well the chairmen are doing for the club – how much they have invested – and they have taken it a long way up already.”

– Slaven Bilic on the Owners

Southampton also have new Chinese owners and they have inherited a well run club that appears to have a long term plan, a philosophy of how the game should be played ( regardless of manager) and a belief in giving a chance to their young players.  It is in stark contrast to the erratic, unfocused and unplanned direction witnessed at West Ham just now.  One report suggested kindly, after last week’s debacle, that the Hammers were a team in transition but sadly this level of uncertainty has become business as usual in the east-end.

Head to Head

West Ham can still boast supremacy in the all-time record with Southampton having won forty and lost thirty of the 105 senior meetings.  Honours are even at four apiece in the last twelve encounters, home and away, while in away games only West Ham have won two and lost six of the last twelve. In the eight meetings since Southampton moved to St Mary’s the Hammers have lost three times and won just the once, with a draw being the favoured outcome.  The sole victory was, of course, last season’s ultimately comfortable 3-1 victory earned with goals from Andy Carroll, Pedro Obiang and Mark Noble despite a typically shaky start.

Team News

West Ham welcome back Michail Antonio from a reducing injury list that now only includes three players; Manuel Lanzini, Cheikhou Kouyate and Carroll.  Without Lanzini the side continues to lack creativity but Antonio’s energy and power will be welcome, assuming that he is yet working at full throttle.

From the fall-out of last Sunday I would expect to see Aaron Cresswell re-installed at left back but whether that will be as part of a back four or in a slightly more advanced wing back role is anyone’s guess.  One of Antonio or Andre ‘What Does He Actually Do’ Ayew will likely be given attacking central midfield duties to give the impression of support to Javier Hernandez.  Obiang and Noble are probable starters with Declan Rice being introduced later on.

“We have to use our experience from Swansea and use everything we did in this game to keep learning and to use this experience for the next few games.”

– Mauricio Pellegrino

Southampton have no injury problems and can choose from a fully fit squad.  In recognition of the new Chinese influence on the south coast my takeaway is that we need to look out for Number 10, Number 16 and Number 22.

The Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Lee Mason from Lancashire.  Mason’s only appointment last season with West Ham was in the 1-0 home win over Hull where he awarded a controversial penalty for a foul on Antonio, converted by Noble for the only goal of the game.

Predictions

The BBC’s Lawro and Sky Sport’s Paul Merson are going for 2-1 and 1-0 respectively.

I worked in Southampton at one time in my life and was a relatively frequent visitor to Saints games, although mainly in The Dell days.  Their fans have an innocent excitability about them, like schoolgirls at an international hockey game, and I predict that they will be very excited once more this afternoon with a 3-1 victory that will leave the Hammer’s firmly rooted in bottom spot.

I believe that the top seven places in the Premier League are already reserved for the two Manchester clubs, the two Merseyside teams, and the London trio of Tottenham, Chelsea, and Arsenal. I’d love to be proved wrong but I’d get short odds from a bookmaker on those teams to finish at the top, even though the exact order that they will finish in is not cut and dried.

Southampton are the current “champions of the second tier of teams in the Premier League” after their eighth place finish last season, although the competition for this “honour” is a close run thing. They only finished a point ahead of ourselves (11^th), and only six points separated 8^th from 17^th. I anticipate a similar close contest this time around.

In many ways the recent fortunes of Southampton are fairly similar to our own, although they have slightly the upper hand when it comes to league positions. We were both promoted to the top tier in 2011-12; they just pipped us for the second automatic place by two points, and it was the two games that we played each other that proved to be the difference. A 0-1 reverse at St. Mary’s in October 2011 was followed by a 1-1 draw in a controversial game at Upton Park on Valentine’s Day in 2012. Their four points to our one was essentially why they went up automatically, although with the benefit of hindsight, I wouldn’t have wanted to miss that great day at Wembley in May 2012 when we beat Blackpool in the play-off final.

In the first season back in the Premier League (2012-13) we finished a creditable tenth, with five more points that Southampton who were 14^th. The following year our placings were reversed with the Saints 8^th, 16 points ahead of ourselves in 13^th. In 2014-15 the gap was 13 points with their seventh placed finish five places in front of us (12^th). We both had excellent seasons in 2015-16; we were pleased to finish in seventh place in what in many ways (although not finishing position) many consider was our best ever season in the Premier League, but once again they were slightly above us by one position (6^th) and one point. And one point (and three places) was their slender advantage over us last season.

In our two most recent games we shared the spoils, with a comprehensive Southampton victory (3-0) at the London Stadium just a fortnight after we had thrown away a two goal advantage in the home game against Watford last September, the catalysts for early season discontent which saw us sitting in a relegation place at the time. But by the time we met them in the reverse fixture at their place early in February this year, our fortunes had picked up considerably, and the three goals from Carroll, Obiang and Noble in a 3-1 win pushed us up to 9^th place in the table. In a season where we only managed to score three or more goals in a league game on four occasions, we were in a hot streak (by our standards) at this time, scoring three goals for the third time in just three weeks. I try to forget though, that just three days before our victory at St Mary’s, Manchester City hammered us 4-0 at the London Stadium.

Head-to-head in the last six seasons (the Championship promotion year, and the five seasons since), we are very even with four wins, four draws and four defeats, with 15 goals scored to their 14. One interesting feature of this period is that Andy Carroll has scored in three of those games, although he is not yet ready to return to action, but Mark Noble has done even better. He has scored in four of the games (five goals in total), which must make our opponents one of his favourite teams to play against.

Our injury list has only reduced slightly with the return of Michail Antonio, although Sakho appears to have remained OK after his substitute appearance last weekend. Carroll, Kouyate, and Lanzini are all apparently close to a return but not quite close enough. Based upon last week’s performance, and the principle of horses for courses, as well as the need to recognise that Hernandez needs a partner to be at his best, I would expect our manager to name the following line-up for this game:

Hart

Zabaleta, Reid, Ogbonna, Cresswell,

Antonio, Noble, Obiang, Arnautovic,

Hernandez, Sakho

My main concerns, which are not new, are the possibility of being over-run in midfield, giving the ball away cheaply too often, the lack of pace at the back, and our slow build-up play. The manager may opt for Ayew (although I don’t know why), and Rice would be unlucky not to be called up based upon his excellent cameo at Old Trafford. Fernandes remains a good young prospect, but like Masuaku, both had poor games last weekend and may find themselves on the bench. Perhaps Sakho is not yet ready for a start, and either Antonio or Arnautavic might be pushed forward to partner Hernandez, which might give us the opportunity to bolster the midfield. Hopefully, all the players will be aware of the imminent return of Carroll, Lanzini, and Kouyate, and put in performances worthy of the shirt.

I’ll predict a draw, but hope that I am wrong and we sneak a victory. Perhaps Mark Noble will add to his goal tally against Southampton? Let us hope for an improved performance, and that we are not still at the foot of the table after this round of matches.

Football is back and at last the weekend routine can return to normal subject to international breaks permitting.  In the last of the weekend’s Matchweek 1 fixtures the Hammers travel north to face Manchester United at Old Trafford.  After last season’s frustrations the slate is wiped clean as Slaven Bilic resumes his place in the hot seat with what looks to be a much improved and better balanced squad.  Time to get behind the manager and team for the highs and lows of what we can only hope will be an exciting, enjoyable and entertaining season.

West Ham do not hold many Premier League records but the highest number of opening day defeats (with ten) is one of them, while today’s opponents are joint leaders in the collection of opening day victories, with sixteen.  Throw in the fact that Jose Mourinho has never, as a manager, lost a season opener or lost a home league match on a Sunday then the omens do not look very promosing.  Still there are always a handful of surprises on the opening weekend and hopefully these were not all used up yesterday.

Head to Head

Of the last twelve meetings between West Ham and Manchester United that wonderful and memorable last game at the Boleyn is the only win that the Hammers have recorded.  The remainder have seen six defeats and five draws.

Old Trafford has never been the happiest hunting ground and despite some notable successes West Ham have only won fourteen times out of seventy visits (nine draws and forty seven defeats).  The most recent victory was on the final day of the Great Escape season (May 2007) and in the twelve encounters since that day the record is lost nine and drawn three.  Both the last two league meetings at Old Trafford have ended in draws including a scoreless one in December 2015 where the Hammers were clearly the better side.

“It’s not ideal playing against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the first game of the season, but on the other hand, it is brilliant and one of the greatest away games in the league.”

Slaven Bilic on the opening day fixture

You have to go back to the early days of the 1986/87 season for the last time that West Ham scored more than one goal at Old Trafford when two goals from Frank McAvennie and another from Alan Devonshire earned a 3-2 win to put West Ham top of the table.  If Javier Hernandez is unsure whether or not to celebrate any goals that he scores then history suggests that he will only need to agonise about it one time.

Team News

Once again West Ham are pace setters on the Physio Room injuries table with several key players not available for selection.  The probable absence of Manuel Lanzini and Michail Antonio are the biggest blows particularly with respect to any attacking aspirations that the Hammers may have.  Cheikhou Kouyate, Diafra Sakho and Andy Carroll are all missing and Aaron Creswell is a doubt.

My expectation is that Bilic will start with the back three of Winston Reid, Angelo Ogbonna and Jose Fonte supported by Pablo Zabaleta and one of Arthur Masuaku or Cresswell as full/ wing backs.  A probable midfield will see Pedro Obiang and Mark Noble at its heart with Marko Arnautovic and Andre Ayew wide and Herndandez a lonely figure up top.

“Everyone is available except the injuries that everybody knows, so the injuries that come from the previous season with surgeries.  Every one of the 22, plus the goalkeepers, that started the pre-season is ready for Premier League match one.”

Jose Mourinho on his fully fit squad

Manchester United have no new injury concerns and will parade a host of expensive new signings including bogey man Romelu Lukaku.

Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Martin Atkinson from West Yorkshire.  We enjoyed Atkinson’s company four times last season: the home defeat to Watford; away wins to Crystal Palace (where he sent off Cresswell for two alleged yellow card offences) and Middlesbrough; and the away defeat to Arsenal (where he denied the Gunners a penalty or two to prevent an even more comprehensive scoreline).

Prediction

Both Lawro and Paul Merson see the game as a stonewall 2-0 home win for the hosts.  Mourinho’s teams are never flamboyant or packed with flair but rely on strength and relentless pressure to break teams down.  West Ham will likely take several buses to park on the edge of the area and the danger will be giving away too many free-kicks close to goal.  How well Zabaleta deals with the threat of Rashford could be a decisive individual contest.  The shortest odds this afternoon must be for a Lukaku goal and I fear that if one goes in it could lead to several more.  Difficult to see the Hammers fashioning too many quick breakaways but maybe Arnie and the Little Pea can conjure something up.

I would like to think that we can snatch a draw but deep down feel that we could lose by two or three.  It would be nice to get off to a flying start to the season but with three away games on the bounce it will be tough to get many points on the board before the international break.

 

 

When the Football League was formed in 1888 it consisted of 12 clubs. Five were from the Midlands and seven from the North-West in the county of Lancashire. Burnley were one of the original teams, and are one of only four of them who are currently in the top flight of English football, the others being Everton, Stoke and West Brom. Without counting I suspect that Lancashire houses more football league clubs than any other county, at least it did when I was growing up. Now, many teams that were considered to be in that county have a Greater Manchester address. Burnley was also one of the answers in a pub quiz I participated in where the question was asked, “Name the five football clubs who have finished as champions in all four divisions of English football.” The answer is at the end of this preview.

As I began taking an interest in football in the late 1950s, Burnley were a major force in England and were champions of Division One (that is equivalent to the modern day Premier League) in 1959-60, and reached the quarter-finals of the European Cup the following season. In 1961-62, they were runners-up in the league (to Ipswich), and lost in the FA Cup final to Tottenham. It just goes to show how the balance of power has shifted at the top in football when you consider that the top eight clubs in order that season were Ipswich, Burnley, Tottenham, Everton, Sheffield United, Sheffield Wednesday, Aston Villa, and then West Ham. Arsenal were mid-table, the two Manchester clubs were in the bottom half, and Chelsea finished bottom and were relegated. Liverpool won the Division 2 title that season.

I’ve never been to Burnley, although I have a mental image of what the town might look like. I can remember many games against the Clarets over the years and two have so far been included in my favourite games series, the 1964 FA Cup quarter final victory over them, and the 5-0 demolition early on in the 1968-69 season. One game I can remember clearly took place at Upton Park on 6 October 1973. It was not a favourite game by any means; my recollection is based solely on the fact that I got engaged to be married that weekend.

We went into that game next to bottom in the table, not having won any of our first nine league games. Burnley were third from top, having only lost one of their opening nine games. They beat us 1-0 that day and went on to finish sixth. Our non-winning run continued for another fortnight until we won our first game of the season at the 12^th attempt, 1-0 at Coventry. We continued with our miserable run in the league for a further six games without winning, before our second victory in the 19^th game (2-1 v Manchester City), which was our first home win of the season.

Support was falling at the time, and only just over 16,000 were at Upton Park when we lost at home to Stoke on the Saturday before Christmas when we fell to the bottom of the table. But we completed a remarkable escape with a ten game unbeaten run, mainly inspired by our new captain, Billy Bonds, playing in midfield at the time. The return fixture at Turf Moor was one of the games in that unbeaten run, and a Graham Paddon goal helped us to a 1-1 draw. Improved performances and results led to bigger crowds in the second half of that season with several over 30,000, and a season high of over 38,000 when we defeated Leeds, the eventual champions, 3-1 in March.

After then Burnley went into a slow decline culminating in the final game of the 1986-87 season (just 30 years ago) when they needed to win the last game of the season to remain in the Football League and not be relegated to the Conference (now the Vanarama). They duly beat Leyton Orient and were also saved by Lincoln City, who were then automatically relegated when losing their final game. In the season just ended of course, Leyton Orient have been relegated from the Football League and Lincoln City have won promotion as Vanarama champions.

Burnley began to ascend again from that time, and in the last few years have yo-yoed between the Championship and the Premier League. This is their third time since 2009 in the top flight, with 2009-10 and 2014-15 being stays of one season only. But they have been more successful this time, and have avoided relegation despite being one of the favourites to go down at the beginning of the season. They currently sit in 15^th place on 40 points with just the one game left. We are 12^th on 42, so defeat would mean that they overtake us.

As 11^th are playing 10^th (Leicester v Bournemouth), the highest we can possibly finish is 11^th, and we are guaranteed at least 12^th if we win. Looking at the fixtures of the teams below us, I would predict that as long as we don’t lose to Burnley we will remain in 12^th place. But this won’t be an easy game for us. Burnley have a magnificent home record where they have attained 33 of their 40 points this season with 10 wins and 3 draws, and they have lost just 5 times. Their defeats came at the hands of Swansea on the opening day of the season, and then to 4 of the sides currently in the top six, the two North London clubs and the two Manchester teams. Away from home they have only won once (at Palace), but at home they are a different proposition, and we will do well to get something out of the game there, especially considering the performance last Sunday, and our increasingly lengthy injury list.

Considering their illustrious past, our head to head record against Burnley is a surprisingly positive one, and we’ve won slightly more games than we’ve lost. That is mainly as a result of more recent history, and since that 1973 defeat that I referred to earlier, we have played them 24 times in league and cup matches, winning 16, drawing 4, and losing just 4. They haven’t beaten us since December 2011 when Sam Vokes scored the winner to complete a 2-1 comeback win for them. Sam Vokes is still there and is their leading goalscorer this season.

Predicting the outcome of final day games of the season with nothing (except prize money and final league position) to play for is tricky. You are never quite sure how many players are already on the beach. With many factors going against us it is hard to see a win, but I reckon a score draw is the likely outcome of the claret and blue derby that finishes our season.

(Pub quiz answer – Portsmouth, Wolves, Sheffield United, Preston.)