Category: Preview

The stop-start Premier League season returns with West Ham deservedly languishing in the relegation zone with just under a third of matches played.  The poor fitness and energy levels shown be the Hammers, which were so obvious for so long to many supporters, were eventually backed up by pundits and statistics and so they go into today’s fixture under the guidance of the club’s sixteenth full-time manager (ten of whom have managed in the Premier League era).

The new buzzword around Rush Green is intensity and initial impressions are that preparation has a more professional and serious look about it than the casual approach employed by the previous regime.  Not that fitness is the only area of improvement required to raise the bar of performances to a level more consistent with the talent available within the squad.   Only time will tell whether improved fitness will translate to greater movement and cohesion allowing the team to keep and make better use of the ball.  To be a decent passing side also needs to have players who are moving into space,  ready and willing to receive, in addition to the skilled execution of the pass itself.  I am hoping for improvement but not expecting overnight miracles to happen.

Today will be David Moyes’ first game as West Ham manager but his 500^th in the Premier League and he should be given every opportunity to start with the same clean slate from the fans as the one he has offered to his squad.

The players have been really committed to what we’ve asked them to do, they’ve grasped it and got on with it, and I think they’ve embraced it too. We’ve tried to put an awful lot of work into them over the past five or six days.

– David Moyes

Our hosts today were fast out of the new season blocks, under much admired manager Marco Silva, but have fallen away recently with a run of three defeats; a run that included one of the most entertaining games I have seen for a while when Watford had several chances to bury Chelsea at Stamford Bridge but ended up losing 4-2.

Head to Head

Ignoring meetings in the Southern League and war-time cups, fixtures between West Ham and Watford are a relatively recent phenomenon starting with a Division 2 encounter in 1979.  Since then the Hammers have generally called the shots winning twenty-four and losing ten of the forty-two games played.  More recent history has the balance tilted slightly in favour of the Hornets who have won five and lost four of the last twelve.

On the road West Ham have won six (lost two) of the last twelve visits to Vicarage Road.

Team News

Probable absentees for the Hammers are Javier Hernandez, Michail Antonio, Jose Fonte, Sam Byram and James Collins.  It would be no surprise if Winston Reid also missed out following his epic air-miles earning trip to New Zealand and Peru during the international break.

I would expect a conservative team selection for Moyes’ first game in charge with the usual familiar faces although that may include Declan Rice if Reid is considered not to have recovered from his travels.  Otherwise there are unlikely to be any surprises with Andy Carroll most probably leading the line.  It will be interesting, if slates have truly been wiped clean, to see how players such as Marko Arnautovic, Diafra Sakho and Andre Ayew respond to the reported new intensity and discipline injected into training and behaviour.

He (Moyes) can change everything. It is the first game and he can change. We respect the team and they have a lot of individual quality in their players. We know what we need to do to win the game.

– Marco Silva

Watford are without the long-term injured Chalobah, Success and Cathcart, the suspended Deeney and have doubts about Kabasele, Pereyra, Prodl and Kaboul.  It would be a bonus not having to face Pereyra as he and Richarlison are the type of quick, clever players that typically cause West Ham major problems.  At the other end it would be a shame if the accident prone Kaboul doesn’t play.

Man in the Middle

A first West Ham outing this season for Andre Marriner from the West Midlands.  Marriner’s five Hammer’s games last term saw a win at Swansea, defeats to Manchester City and Chelsea and draws with Stoke and Sunderland. In eleven games this season he has shown one red and twenty-four yellow cards.

Predictions

Lawro and Merson are firmly on the fence with 1-1 draws; a conclusion which look reasonable in the circumstances.  Watford can be dangerous in attack but fragile at the back with a defence that has conceded almost as many goals as the Hammers.  We are likely to see a cautious approach from Moyes, seeking to frustrate rather than entertain in a situation where picking up points before December’s run of death has to be the overriding priority.  If West Ham can keep it tight in defence and in central midfield then they have the potential to hurt Watford on the break and from set pieces; thus I will stick my neck out and go for an encouraging 2-1 victory.

Now that the furore surrounding the appointment of our new manager has largely died down we can begin to think about the return of our players away on international duty, assess the injury list, and the coaching staff can prepare the team for the important trip around the M25 to Watford on Sunday afternoon. From some of the reactions that I read on social media you would have thought that the board had re-appointed Avram Grant, not a manager who in his career has managed teams to finish in the top eight almost as many times as we have finished in one of those lofty positions in the entire history of the club. Not that he was particularly my first choice, but it may just be that he is the type of manager needed at the present time. He certainly seems to have made some impression in his short time here with the appointment of his backroom team being particularly well received, and the stepping up of the training sessions being very evident on videos released, to replace the usual jokey crossbar challenge and other joviality that came before. The arrival of Stuart Pearce is one that is favoured by many, and it is hoped that he can exert the necessary influence behind the scenes that many thought would be provided by Julian Dicks, but didn’t appear to be in evidence.

Not being a fan of friendly international football I am afraid that I didn’t see a single minute of the two England games in the break. I did, however, see one of the most ridiculous penalty awards of all time which effectively eliminated Northern Ireland from the World Cup finals tournament. I watched a bit of the Republic of Ireland playing in Denmark and thought to myself, why can’t West Ham defend like that? But then I watched some of the return game in Dublin and recognised some classic West Ham style kamikaze defending. Sweden also turned the tables on Italy with a masterful display of defence in the old Italian style, including one of their defenders committing a foul so bad (a knee in the stomach) that would have resulted in an arrest on the street, yet the referee deemed that the Italian forward who controlled the ball on his thigh before being assaulted had handled the ball! Some of the refereeing decisions that I saw in those World Cup qualifiers made me fear for the potential standard of the officials in the World Cup next year.

But for me the Premier League makes a welcome return this weekend. No more interruptions for internationals until March. I watched David Moyes’ press conference and was impressed with his positivity and confidence. This will be his 500^th game as a manager in the Premier League, a total only surpassed by Ferguson, Wenger and Redknapp. I liked the way he answered many of the questions put to him, but the real test will be in what happens on the pitch in the coming games. Watford will not be the easiest away trip, although their form at Vicarage Road has not been as impressive as their form on the road. Their five home games have yielded just five points, with a solitary victory (2-1 v Arsenal) after they had been outplayed by their visitors for much of the game. Home draws against Liverpool and Brighton were certainly better results than we achieved at home against the same teams. A 6-0 reverse at home to Manchester City was an even heavier defeat than most other teams have suffered at the hands of the odds-on favourites for the Premier League title, and they will have been disappointed going down 1-0 to Stoke in their last home fixture.

Victories in their first three away games of the season at Bournemouth, Southampton and Swansea were followed by a draw at West Brom and then two defeats at Chelsea and then Everton. Somehow at Goodison they contrived to turn a 2-0 lead well into the second half into a 3-2 loss and even missed a penalty in the eleventh minute of injury time which would have given them a share of the spoils. After eight games they sat in fourth place in the table, but losing three in a row has seen them drop to ninth. Nevertheless I reckon they would have settled for 15 points and a top half position at this stage of the season.

Our head to head record in games against Watford is a heavily positive won with more than twice as many victories as defeats. In the period from 1984-85 for the next 20 years or so we played them on 23 occasions, winning 19, drawing two, and losing just twice. But the last ten games since then has seen a reversal of fortunes, and we have won just two of the matches, drawn three, and we have been beaten five times.

In the final season at Upton Park we beat them comfortably 3-1 with two Mark Noble penalties following an opening goal from Andy Carroll. How often are we awarded a single penalty in a game, let alone two? Incidentally the referee who gave them to us was (the now not so popular with West Ham fans) Mike Dean.

And who can possibly forget just over a year ago in one of the early games at the London Stadium when we raced into a 2-0 lead (which should have been even more) with two headed goals from Antonio, one from an outrageous rabona cross by a Frenchman who was popular with our fans at the time? We then contrived to concede two goals in the last five minutes of the first half, and a further two in the opening 15 minutes of the second, in a woeful defensive display. Some Watford players even accused our team of showboating when we were two goals ahead. In the return fixture we drew 1-1 with Ayew equalising an early penalty scored by Deeney, and Antonio was sent off close to the end of the game.

What do the bookmakers offer on the game? Watford are close to even money to win, whereas we are around 3/1. The favourite score is 1-1 (as it so often is), which is Lawro’s prediction and is priced at around 11/2. I am hoping that we will benefit from the “new manager factor” and inflict on Watford their fourth league defeat in a row. As each of us have featured in five games this season where four or more goals have been scored, my fun bet will be on a half-time score of 1-1, with West Ham to run out 3-1 winners at the end of the game at 125/1. I’ll add this to West Ham to win and four or more goals to be scored in the game which is priced at 10/1.

The last two Wednesdays have seen Tottenham playing at Wembley. Firstly they couldn’t overcome mighty West Ham and lost 3-2. Then this week they comfortably beat the current UEFA Champions League holders, Real Madrid 3-1. That makes us the best team in Europe doesn’t it? I jest of course. It doesn’t work like that. But sometimes in adversity you have to cling on to something to raise a smile and cheer yourself up.

We have now completed ten games of the 2017-18 season which means that we are more than a quarter of the way through. After this weekend’s round of fixtures we will go into the third international break, which does seem a little ridiculous with just eleven matches played. Although with our injury list seemingly expanding once again, then perhaps the break cannot come too soon. If ever there was a time to change a manager during the season outside of the winter transfer window, then the international break would seem to fit the bill if that is what our owners have in mind. I suspect, however, that the test of the “two games to save your job” ultimatum (if it existed) has been passed, and barring a capitulation of last season’s proportions against the Merseysiders, or a repeat of the Brighton debacle, the manager is perhaps safe until the winter window, or at least until someone who is considered to be a top candidate becomes available. Big rumours are beginning to surface about the current manager’s predecessor. Please, no!

Here we sit in sixteenth place in the table, precariously one point above the drop zone, although with better game management in the ninety-sixth minute of the last match it could easily have been three, even if we did not really deserve to win the game. We can thank our much maligned on-loan keeper for keeping us ahead for so long. He produced a magnificent display of goalkeeping which shows why he was signed, and I hope he can continue to prove his critics wrong. As for Michail Antonio, a player I like enormously, although he hasn’t really done anything much this season yet, I haven’t yet heard his explanation for what went through his head.

Much has been written about our forthcoming run of fixtures which some have said will be tough. But the reality of the situation is that despite our lowly position, we have only played four out of our ten matches at home. And in those ten games we have faced five teams from the top half of the table, which means that we have the other five to play to take us up to the midpoint. So on paper the next period should perhaps be equally as hard (but not necessarily harder) than the period that has elapsed. One thing that is noticeable is how the games will come thick and fast between now and the end of 2017. Having played just ten league games in almost three months we now face four in the month of November, and then an energy-sapping seven league games and a Carabao Cup quarter final in the last month of the year.

Yet again this weekend our game has been moved for the benefit of television. So, instead of kicking off at 3pm, (I’m really looking forward to 23 December when we have a 3pm on a Saturday kick-off!) the match starts at 5.30. I don’t like it but what can you do? Our visitors are Liverpool, and less than six months have elapsed since they last came to the London Stadium and thrashed us 4-0 in our final home game last season. Our manager was quoted after that game as saying we still need time to adjust to playing at the London Stadium. That seemed to be a feeble excuse for a poor performance, considering that just over a week beforehand we had beaten Tottenham 1-0 at home with possibly our best display of the entire season.

Liverpool of course are one of the elite six clubs in England. They will undoubtedly finish in the top six, but I reckon they will be hard pushed to be challenging for a place in the top four to qualify for the UEFA Champions League, a competition that they are competing in this season, and top their league with just two games to play before the knockout stages. I am just about old enough to remember their promotion to the top flight in the early sixties, since when they have remained at this level for 55 consecutive seasons. For a long period throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s they were the pre-eminent club in England, and still are our most successful in history of European success. However, they cling on to past glories like the cartoon character clinging to the edge of the cliff, and don’t seem to recognise that their dominance no longer exists. They are falling way behind the Manchester clubs at the present time.

They have had an OK start to the campaign and sit in sixth position after ten games, with four wins, four draws and two defeats. But their 16 points means that they are already 12 adrift of leaders Manchester City, so almost certainly will not be challenging at the very top. At home they are unbeaten with victories over Palace (1-0), Arsenal (4-0), and Huddersfield (3-0), together with draws against Burnley (1-1), and Manchester United (a boring 0-0). But on the road their form has been distinctly average, and although they have only conceded one goal at Anfield, they have let in a massive 15 in their five away games. If only we had an attacking force to take advantage of what would appear to be a very poor defence on their travels. In their away games a 3-3 draw at Watford was followed by a 5-0 defeat at Manchester City, a 3-2 victory over Leicester, a 1-1 draw at Newcastle, and then another heavy defeat at Tottenham (4-1).

Our visitors are favourites to win the game with the bookmakers and are quoted at around 4/6. We are about 7/2 with the draw at 3/1. Those odds are commensurate with our performances this season, but don’t perhaps reflect Liverpool’s defensive frailties in their games played away from Anfield. What are the odds on us repeating a 3-1 win, which is something we have managed twice in the past seven seasons? Disappointingly only 30/1. A 1-1 draw and Liverpool victories of 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 are all on offer at between 7/1 and 8/1, which are relatively short prices for a game where both defences would appear to be vulnerable. Once again my optimistic hat has been dusted down, and for no logical reason whatsoever I think that we are going to win this game 3-1. There could even be more goals than that for both sides. It certainly won’t end up goalless.

Once again a West Ham game is over-shadowed by the ongoing speculation over the future of manager Slaven Bilic.  Having survived the supposed two-games-to-save-his-job ultimatum he now faces a lose-this-one-badly-and-you’re-history challenge with the visit of Liverpool to the London Stadium for the Saturday late kick-off.  The situation really has become quite ludicrous and I doubt there can many left who don’t believe it is only a matter of time before the axe finally falls.  The only uncertainty is how far through the season Bilic will cling on for and how deep West Ham are in the brown stuff when that time eventually comes.

A string of names have been put forward as potential managerial replacements although the majority of these are currently in gainful employment and may not regard now as the appropriate time to accept the poison chalice form Messrs.’ Gold and Sullivan; or perhaps they believe a better is in the offing from Everton.  There are, of course, a number of managerial merry-go-round managers who are currently kicking their heels in pundit-land including former bosses Pardew and Allardyce; a return for either of those would madness in my eyes – and there is also the discarded Ronald Koeman.  It is unfortunate that our predicament will almost force the hand into the realms of another ‘survival’ manager when what is really needed at the club is one capable of building a team for the future.  I wonder what Terry Venables and George Graham are doing at the moment?

The manager of today’s visitors, Liverpool, seems to divide opinion.  Personally, I like him as he brings some much needed colour into the game.  If he were not managing the pantomime villains from Merseyside, I think he would be getting more credit for what he has tried to do at a club that lives as much in the past as our own. Given time (and a realisation that you have to defend as well as attack) and I am certain he will be able to guide his side to regular third and fourth place finishes; only a huge injection of cash will now be able to split the Manchester domination.

Head to Head

I doubt that there is a team in the league that we have a worse record against than Liverpool.  In 135 previous meetings we have won only twenty-eight (20%) and lost a whopping seventy (52%).  In recent history the Hammers have fared relatively better having won four and lost five of the last twelve encounters between the two clubs.

A victory today would give the Hammers equilibrium on home turf by making it twenty-five wins apiece from sixty-seven matches.  The last twelve home games have seen five West Ham wins and seven defeats and you would need to go further back to December 2001 for the most recent home stalemate.  Liverpool have a 100% record at the London Stadium.

Team News

Pablo Zabaleta misses the game due to a one match ban while the Hammers are also said to be also without defenders Sam Byram, James Collins (and potentially) Winston Reid, Jose Fonte and Aaron Cresswell.  Michail Antonio is also missing with a bout of acute embarrassment.  Unless some particularly efficacious white horse oil can be found to treat the walking wounded prior to the match the defence will have an even more makeshift look about it than usual.

The silver lining in the cloud of defensive woes is a probable further outing for the impressive Declan Rice; but with the majority of attacking players reporting for duty the calls for the inclusion of academy stars Toni Martinez and Nathan Holland will likely go unheeded.  A flurry of goals from Andre Ayew seem to have elevated his status to automatic starter for most supporters but he still needs to deliver more and on a consistent basis to justify his price tag in my view.   It is ironic that his best position seems to be exactly the same as the one Little Pea wants to play.

Today’s visitors also have a string of injuries to contend with as Mane, Lallana and Clyne are reported as definitely out while Coutinho, Wijnaldum and Lovren are major doubts.  Given the importance of Mane and Coutinho to the way that Liverpool play this news must be music to Slaven’s part-time rock star ears.

The Man in The Middle

Today’s referee is Preston supporter Neil Swarbrick from close to Merseyside.  As well as being in charge of West Ham’s defeat at Newcastle earlier this season he was also the ref of this corresponding fixture last year.  He also took charge of home games against Middlesbrough and Palace last term.    In eight games this season he has yet to issue a red card and has twenty-two yellows to his name.  In case you are interested his performance can be seem live on Refcam.

Predictions

No surprise that Lawro is true to form and predicting a Liverpool win (0-2).  Merson also agrees but is forecasting a 3-1 score-line in the visitor’s favour.  If Liverpool had Coutinho and Mane available my fear would have been something even worse than last season’s 0-4 capitulation, they are just the type of team who would have a filed day running at the West Ham defence and causing all sorts of problems.  As it is there is only Salah to worry about and he looks to be rather inconsistent.  Thus, there is just a glimmer of hope and I am going to buck the historic trend by predicting a repeat of last week’s 2-2 score.  In truth, I would take a heavy defeat if it guaranteed a conclusion to the Bilic debacle.

What an astonishing turnaround in the Carabao Cup clash at Wembley! I didn’t see that coming, and I’ll suggest that few others did either. I had spent an excellent day at Newmarket Races, so betting was at the forefront of my thoughts on Wednesday evening. At half-time, with Tottenham holding a 2-0 lead, and by common consent, yet another woeful first half performance from a much-changed West Ham line-up, you could have got odds of 1000-1 on us winning the game in 90 minutes. Even the most optimistic fan wouldn’t have wasted any stake money on that outcome. If anybody did, then they could have visited their travel agent on Thursday morning to book a holiday in the sun. Unfortunately I didn’t because there was no way that I believed we could possibly win the game at that stage. The fact that we did came about partly as a result of increased confidence after we had pulled a goal back, and partly because of over-confidence from the North London outfit who believed that they could go through the motions in the second half, and save themselves for their weekend fixture against Manchester United.

Our reward for the victory is a quarter-final clash against our other North London neighbours, who once again have been given a home draw in a cup competition. This happens on a consistent basis, and I’m sure they will be confident of progressing into the semi-finals when the tie is played just before Christmas. The Carabao Cup draws for each round have been surrounded in controversy, and each one has had problems of one kind or another. This time it was meant to be live on Twitter, but “technical” problems delayed proceedings for two hours, and it was eventually shown as a recording. Conspiracy theorists had a field day when it was revealed that the four “big” clubs left in the competition had avoided each other. Few would bet against Chelsea, Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs lining up in the semi-finals. Let us hope that we can spoil that party.

But before then we have to use the confidence gained from our second half performance, and build on that momentum in the forthcoming Premier League games. They begin with this weekend’s trip to Palace. If we thought that our start to the season was poor, then it is nothing compared to the nightmare at Selhurst Park, where our hosts sit at the foot of the league after the first nine games. Just one win and eight defeats is their sorry record. In all of the eight games they have lost they have failed to even score a goal. Their five defeats on their travels have been at Liverpool (1-0), Burnley (1-0), Manchester City (5-0), Manchester United (4-0), and Newcastle (1-0). At home they have at least improved their record progressively, with three defeats to Huddersfield (3-0), Swansea (2-0), and Southampton (1-0), before unexpectedly beating last season’s champions Chelsea (2-1) in their last game at Selhurst Park. Those two goals, their only ones in the league this season were scored by Zaha, and an own-goal. This is their fifth consecutive season in the Premier League, their longest spell in the top flight, and they will need to improve dramatically if they want to extend the run further.

Their form was no better in the Carabao Cup this week, when with a much-changed line-up, they were unceremoniously dumped out of the competition by Bristol City (4-1). Like most sides they haven’t played their strongest team as the EFL Cup is not considered a priority until the very late stages. No doubt, again like us, they will field a changed line-up on Saturday. Despite their poor start to the season, the bookmakers still make them relatively short-priced favourites to beat us at 11/8. We are offered at 11/5, and the draw is around 23/10. The odds on a repeat of Wednesday night, where we overturn a 2-0 half-time deficit to win the game 3-2, are currently 500-1. There is a saying about lightning not striking twice though.

As usual there is about as much chance in predicting our starting line-up as having a winning line on the lottery. Will we go with 3-5-2, or 4-4-2, or 4-2-3-1, or 4-1-4-1 or any other formation you could have? Who knows? How many of Wednesday night’s team will retain their place after that excellent second half performance?

Will Hart or Adrian get the nod in goal? Will Cresswell or Masuaku start at left back? How many of Reid, Fonte, Ogbonna or Rice will start? Perhaps the only defensive certainty is that Zabaleta will return at right back, although that is not to say that Byram didn’t have a decent enough game against Tottenham.

As for the midfield and attacking players it is anybody’s guess. All the fit players will be pushing to play and that will be almost the whole first team squad. I noted some statistics produced this week that showed since August 2016, Ayew has been involved in more West Ham goals than any other player. By involved it meant actual goals scored and assists. Considering the fact that he has not a regular place in the team because of injuries (and form) then we must ask, do the figures lie? And should he therefore be one of the first names on the teamsheet? Personally I remain unconvinced, but I have to admit to warming to him a little recently. Well just a little. I’d love him to become a world beater and prove me wrong. Whatever, with his brace in midweek he will be pushing for a place in the starting line-up.

I also read another interesting article about what Andy Carroll brings to the team. Apart from the obvious “outlet ball”, winning of aerial battles, and defensively a boost when we are facing corners and set pieces, the inclusion of him in the side obviously affects the style of play we adopt. The piece went on to describe how he had a big influence on our three goals without the statistics proving that. The author suggested that his mere presence was enough to occupy more than one Tottenham defender at a time and opened up the way for Ayew and Ogbonna to score the goals. Such a big emphasis is placed on goalscoring and assist statistics these days, whereas in fact others who get no credit for a goal whatsoever may have had a bigger influence in the ball ending up in the net.

The manager himself has described this week as giving him a positive selection headache. He has been emphasising that it is all about the squad, not just the team, so trying to soften the blow for those who don’t make the first eleven I guess. Whoever is involved, I look forward to another win to consolidate a mid-table position. A defeat would probably see us occupying one of the three relegation spots, a place we only just hover above at the moment because of a better goal difference than both Stoke and Everton.

If you are only as good as your last game then West Ham will win today’s relegation battle between London’s Cinderella clubs at a canter. The Hammers executed a remarkable comeback to earn Wembley cup triumph over Tottenham while the day before Crystal Palace experienced humiliating defeat at the hands of lowly Bristol City.  Except that football doesn’t tend to work like that; cup form, in games where there has to be a winner, does not necessarily translate into league matches, where collection of precious points for big money survival are the imperative.

Both of today’s sides made wholesale changes for their midweek games so it is difficult to know to what extent West Ham will be boosted by their surprise victory or how much Palace will be deflated by their shock defeat.  In many ways Slaven Bilic faces the greater dilemma as he has to decide which of the fringe players from Wednesday’s battling second half display deserve another chance.

Wednesday night’s game should set the standard for us, in terms of closing teams down, in terms of compactness, in terms of team play, in terms of sacrificing everything for the team. We will win some games and we will lose some games, but I am quite confident we are on a good way.

– Slaven Bilic Eureka Moment

It has been widely reported that this is the second of the two games that manager Bilic has to save his job (at least until the next time that a similar ultimatum is issued.) He couldn’t have hoped for a better outcome in the week but defeat today would still leave him in a very precarious position.  While a win is likely to earn a stay of execution, it is a toss-up as to whether a draw will be enough to satisfy the chairmen as they contemplate the tougher run of fixtures on the board over the coming weeks.

Head to Head

West Ham have played Palace thirty five times (ignoring Southern League and war-time games) winning sixteen and losing only seven.  The away game tally shows eight West Ham wins in seventeen matches with just the three defeats – all to a one-nil scoreline!

If West Ham win today it will be the fourth in a row at Selhurst Park.

Team News

James Collins would appear to be the only senior player not available for selection (although there will a late fitness assessment for Michail Antonio) adding to Bilic’s selection dilemma as to how many from Wednesday’s second string make it into today’s starting eleven.  Personally, I would see no reason not to stick with Adrian between the posts but am certain that the manager will decide otherwise.

Bilic is sure to persevere with a back three/ five and it will be fascinating to see which three central defenders get the nod: will Winston Reid return (probably); will Angelo Ogbonna keep his place (probably); will he show bravery and give another run out to Declan Rice (unlikely) or will Jose Fonte or Cheikhou Kouyate make up the numbers?

Mark Noble is sure to start after being credited with responsibility for the Wembley second half performance (but not the poor first half one). There is no doubt about Noble’s commitment or passion but is that enough in top flight football?

Elsewhere will it be another run out for the unplayable head of Andy Carroll? Will Javier Hernandez return or were Andre Ayew’s goals enough to earn him a rare start. Ayew certainly has a knack of being in the right place and has, apparently, been involved in more West Ham goals than any other player during his time at the club.  Quite possibly he is another player who has not been used to the best of his potential, given that he has spent the majority of games being largely ineffective in midfield.

I think there is a belief which is growing, there is a faith in what they are trying to do as a team. Training sessions are one thing, though, matches on a Saturday are a different thing. We’re not judged on how well we do in training, we’re judged on winning on Saturday or not.

– Wise Owl Roy Hodgson knows the difference between training and a match

Palace are still without Christian Benteke and have doubts over James McArthur and Lee Chung-yong.  They will likely rely on Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend in attack which many not be a massive goal threat but they have more than enough pace to unsettle the West Ham defence.  Former Hammer James Tomkins is likely to occupy his preferred position on the bench.

Man in the Middle

The referee today is Robert ‘Bobby’ Madley from West Yorkshire. The no nonsense Yorkshireman has been highly productive with the cards this season awarding thirty six yellows and four reds in just eight outings.  Our poor disciplinary record and propensity to concede penalties will certainly come under the referee’s scrutiny where both Zaha and Cabaye are quick to go to ground.

West Ham encountered Madley four times last season in the home win to Sunderland, wins home and away to Burnley and defeat at Bournemouth.

Predictions

Both Lawro and Merson are playing safe with 1-1 draw predictions. Palace got off the mark with a deserved win against Chelsea last time out at Selhurst Park and were  unfortunate losers at Newcastle prior to their EFL cup fiasco.  The Hammers hit an all-time low when losing at home to Brighton only to bounce back in midweek shock at Wembley.  I am sure the game will have goals; West Ham are weak in protecting their defence (particularly against pace) and are also prone to individual errors; Palace have yet to keep a clean sheet and are faced with the Manuel Lanzini scoring hoodoo.  Someone will win by the odd goal in three; my heart says the Hammers but my head says Palace.

Depending on your point of view, today marks the start of the great West Ham turnaround or is the first of Slaven Bilic’s final two games as manager.  From my way of thinking, I would give a greater chance of survival to a lame duck who covered himself in orange sauce and decided to attend a hungry foxes convention.  Still, stranger things have happened in football although the dilemma tonight hinges on what does turning it around look like as far as Bilic’s employers are concerned?  Does it require two victories or would a plucky defeat tonight followed by victory at the weekend be sufficient?  Or is the bar set even lower with the only criteria being as to whether a ready replacement can be found in time?

All the evidence would suggest that coming away from tonight’s trip to Wembley with anything other than pride in tact is likely to be a tall order.  Perhaps the chance to witness the Hammers play in a cup tie at Wembley is reward enough in these desperate times; remember it is a spectacle that an increasing number of supporters (those born in the last forty years) have only seen on Youtube.

Tottenham appeared to exorcise the apparent Wembley voodoo on Sunday with an emphatic victory over Liverpool leaving us with the only straw to clutch at being that, with games against Manchester United and Real Madrid on the horizon, an EFL cup tie may not be the highest priority.  Maybe they will play a weakened side but even though Tottenham probably have the least depth of all the ‘top six’ clubs they possess more than enough ability to brush past West Ham should recent Hammers performances be repeated.  There is, maybe, encouragement (but also frustration) to be taken from the fact that West Ham have often discovered an added extra gear in games against our north London rivals.  On the other hand, tt is difficult to see Pochettino taking the game lightly even if he may see the game as a distraction.

The only ‘shock’ from last night’s set of results was the defeat for Saturday’s opponents Crystal Palace who had decided to field a second string team with the weekend’s clash in mind.  Could a Hammer’s victory be tonight’s shock or will Bilic also decide to write this one off as Hodgson did with Palace?

Head to Head: League Cup Special

This is the seventh time that West Ham have been drawn against Tottenham in the League Cup.  Two of the original ties were drawn and went to replays (not an option tonight) both of which Tottenham won including a 5-0 romp in February 1987.  My own most memorable encounter was at a buzzing Upton Park when the fantastic West Ham side of the early 1980’s ran out 1-0 victors courtesy of a delightful chipped goal by David Cross in the last ten minutes of the game.  That was, of course, en route to West Ham’s most recent appearance in a Wembley cup final in March 1981.  The Hammers also won the last League Cup meeting between the two sides in December 2013 as goals from Jarvis and Maiga helped secure a 2-1 victory.

Team News

West Ham are missing Michail Antonio, Diafra Sakho and James Collins through injury but Andy Carroll is available after completing a one match suspension.  It has been confirmed that Adrian will be in goal but other than that it is anyone’s guess as to the lineup.  It is normal Bilic practice to flip-flop between three central defenders and a back four following each bad defeat and so I foresee a back three returning tonight.  Maybe there will be a chance for a few youngsters (such as Declan Rice and Nathan Holland) to be given a run-out, and not just in the last five minutes.  Rice as part of a back three would be interesting to see rather than continuing to use him in a more unnatural defensive midfield role.

The goalkeeper situation is a perfect example of West Ham’s lack of foresight.  It has been widely reported that Adrian is looking to leave the club; and who could blame him.  That would leave just an on-loan player in Joe Hart with any experience in the keeper department; and nothing I have seen suggests that Hart is any better than Adrian.

Tottenham may well rest several star players for the game (including H Kane) but may find room for Dembele and Rose who are both returning from injury.  Wanyama and Lamela remain on the sidelines.

Man in the The Middle

A first encounter this season with Mike Dean from The Wirral.  Last season, Dean took charge of the Tottenham v West Ham league game at White Hart Lane, where he sent off Winston Reid, and West Ham’s home league fixture against Manchester United, where he sent off Sofiane Feghouli.  A high probability of a red card tonight then I would think, probably while awarding a penalty for one of Dele Alli’s dives in the penalty area.

Predictions

Sky’s Charlie Nicholas has gone for a 3-0 home win.  Painful as it is to say, I am a huge admirer of Pochettino’s style of football which has allowed Tottenham to over-achieve at Tottenham during the past few seasons.  We can only dream of a team with extreme levels of fitness and players who completely understand, and are so well drilled in, what is expected of them.  I would like to be more optimistic but feel that the best we can hope for tonight is a performance rather than a result.

The latest in a regular series of ‘must-win’ games sees West Ham entertain Brighton & Hove Albion at the London Stadium.  Although there is always something special about night-time football under the floodlights there is also something unnatural about games being played on a Friday night – surely this should be reserved for clubs such as Southend United.  On the other hand, West Ham have a 100% win record for home Friday night Premier League fixtures which we should have a good reason to preserve against the south coast day trippers.

Today’s visiting manager is one-time Hammer Chris Hughton, who having spent most of his playing career at White Hart Lane was signed by Billy Bonds, as cover for the injured Julian Dicks, and became a regular during the promotion season of 1990/91.  His management career has been a mixed bag: having been unfortunate to be dismissed from Newcastle in favour of Alan Pardew; taking Birmingham City to the Championship play-offs; before experiencing a less successful period in charge at Norwich City.  In his third season as manager of Brighton the club achieved automatic promotion from the Championship to earn a return to the top tier of English football for the first time since 1983.

“We have improved results, we have players back from injury and the players who missed a big part of pre-season have their match-fitness. We improved and we are on the right path, so it’s much better.”

– Slaven Bilic

Having watched Brighton’s home match against Everton last weekend it was apparent that Hughton has put together a resolute and well organised side even if it lacks something in creativity and goal threat.  Although Everton dominated first half possession they moved the ball forward far too slowly (very reminiscent of how West Ham play) allowing Brighton to easily re-group and defend in numbers.  If the Hammers adopt that that usual ponderous and pedestrian style again tonight it will turn out as another frustrating ninety minutes at the London Stadium.

Head to Head

If you ignore Southern League and war-time cup games then West Ham and Brighton have only crossed swords on twenty-one occasions, with the Hammers winning eleven and losing five of those encounters.  On home soil, West Ham have won nine out of the twelve games played.

The single Brighton victory in the east end was in a Championship game in November 2004 and may serve as a warning against what could happen tonight.  West Ham dominated the entire game (mugged off in the words of manager Pardew) mustering seventeen attempts on goal, of which only three were on target.  Conversely, Brighton scored the only goal of the game from a rare foray into the West Ham half.

Team News

With Andy Carroll missing through suspension cue an injury to Diafra Sakho, joining James Collins on the treatment table.  There is a slight doubt about Javier Hernandez but he is expected to start.  The disappearing striker phenomenon could possibly open the door for Tony Martinez to spend an evening on the bench.

In normal circumstances I would say that tonight’s team picks itself with Pedro Obiang coming into the side in place of Carroll as the only change from the eleven that started at Burnley.  This would allow Hernandez to play alone up front but with support from Michail Antonio and Marko Arnautovic in wide positions while Manuel Lanzini is given more freedom in a central attacking position behind the striker.  In fact, this may well be the best balanced eleven that we have in the squad.  Whether Mr Bilic has the same idea remains to be seen.

There has been much praise in the week for the performances of Jose Fonte, proclaimed as West Ham’s most improved player of the season,  Although this probably reflects on how bad he was previously than on any sudden display of brilliance.  The back four is generally competent at heading the ball away and is only exposed when it comes up against attackers with pace and movement.  It is doubtful whether Brighton, in the shape of 34-year-old Glenn Murray, will be asking too many questions in that respect this evening.

“It’s going to be about away form that’s going to be the most challenging. It’s a game away from home, in a big stadium, against a very talented team.”

– Chris Hughton

Brighton hope to have Shane Duffy available after picking up an injury last week but otherwise have no injury woes.  The danger men for Brighton would appear to be Pascal Groß and Anthony Knockaert

Man in the Middle

It is a second encounter of the season with Martin Atkinson from West Yorkshire, Atkinson having previously officiated in the season opener at Old Trafford.  He was in charge of four Hammer’s games last season; defeats to Watford (Home) and Arsenal (Away) and away wins at Palace and Middlesbrough.

Predictions

Merson has this down as a 1-0 Hammers win while Lawro goes one better by predicting a 2-0 home victory.  The match has the look of an only goal of the game victory to me and fingers crossed it will go our way.  One-nil to the cockney boys is fast becoming our trademark home result (particularly in ‘must-win’ games) and it will also be consistent with the two previous Friday night Premier League wins.

An early West Ham goal could, of course, put a completely different complexion on the game while the longer Brighton can hold out the more frustrating the game could become.  Long gone are the days when you would experience that feeling in your water that the Hammers could very well go on a goal scoring rampage at any time.

Friday night, 8pm kick off. Don’t get me started. As a traditionalist I like to watch my football at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon. But I have to accept that money talks, so if I want to watch my beloved West Ham live I have no option but to travel to London late in the afternoon and return home around midnight. For so many reasons it is not particularly convenient, but so be it, I cannot change it, and I will take my place in the East Stand as usual.

This is Brighton’s first season ever in the Premier League, although I am old enough to remember them in the top flight between 1979 and 1983, which culminated in a Cup Final appearance for them when they lost to Manchester United after a replay. That season (1982-83) they were relegated and were not to be seen in the top tier of English football again until now.

In the following years after relegation they had significant problems as they fell down the divisions and almost went out of business. In 1996-97 they were very close to losing their place in the Football League, and went into the last game of the season at home to Hereford United needing at least a draw to avoid dropping out. They were 1-0 down for much of the game, but a late equaliser enabled them to survive and sent Hereford out of the league. They also had significant ground problems when the Goldstone Ground closed, which meant that they shared Gillingham’s stadium for a while, and also spent a period at the Withdean Stadium, which effectively was a small athletics track. But they have bounced back from those troubled times and the impressive Falmer (Amex) Stadium which seats over 30,000 has been their home since 2011.

This season has started reasonably for them, and in fact they have an identical record to our own, having won two, drawn two, and lost four of their opening eight fixtures. But their goal difference of minus 4 (as opposed to our minus 6) means that they sit in 14^th place in the table, immediately above us. They have a good home record unsurprisingly losing their opener to Manchester City (2-0), before beating West Brom 3-1, Newcastle 1-0, and unluckily drawing 1-1 with Everton when they conceded a penalty in the last minute which was converted by Wayne Rooney. But on their travels they have collected just a solitary point (in a goalless draw at Watford). They lost 2-0 at Leicester, 2-1 at Bournemouth, and 2-0 at Arsenal.

Most of our early games against them were in the old Southern League or FA Cup ties, and we didn’t play a game against them in the Football League until 1978. But in the last (almost) forty years since then we haven’t often been in the same division, and we have met them in just fourteen league games, winning six, drawing three, and losing five. I can remember clearly their only victory on our ground when I watched from the old East Stand at Upton Park in November 2004 with my dad. It was one of the last times he came with me to West Ham before he died. We dominated the whole game yet lost 1-0 to a header from a free kick from Guy Butters. I recall Steve Claridge being in their team at the time.

The last time we met them was a very enjoyable experience. It was in our promotion campaign of 2011-12 when, under Big Sam, we played them at Upton Park in the penultimate home game of the regular season. We were still chasing automatic promotion so a win was important, and we tied it up within the first quarter of an hour racing into a three goal lead. I watched this game from the Bobby Moore stand and was right behind the line of Ricardo Vaz Te’s powerful shot from outside the area at the other end which opened the scoring. Just a few minutes later it was all over as a contest when Vaz Te added the second and Nolan the third (or was it the other way round?). I can recall two of the second half goals, a stunning bicycle kick from Vaz Te to complete his hat-trick, and a mazy dribble followed by a powerful low shot from Carlton Cole. I am afraid that I have no memory of the other goal whatsoever. But it was an excellent game which made number 19 in my list of favourite West Ham matches in my book Goodbye Upton Park, Hello Stratford. Vaz Te’s powerful first goal and then his bicycle kick were numbers 18 and 28 in my list of 60 Favourite West Ham goals in the same book.

If we have any aspirations to make a convincing challenge to finish in the top half of the table, then games such as these are “must-win” ones. We won’t pick up many points against the top six sides, and we need to maximise our opportunities against the “lesser” teams, especially in the home fixtures. The bookmakers have us as 5/6 favourites to win the game, with Brighton at 7/2 and the draw at 12/5. The favourite scoreline is a 1-0 win for us quoted at around 5/1. And if you fancy a repeat of the 6-0 drubbing we gave them the last time they visited, then you can get odds of 425/1.

Can you remember the last time we scored more than three goals in a home game? It hasn’t happened under Slaven Bilic, although we did score four times in the away game at Swansea last season. In our first season back in the Premier League (2012-13) under Big Sam we did it twice. In the final game of the season we put four past Reading thanks to a Nolan hat trick and another goal from Vaz Te. And today, 20^th October, is the fifth anniversary of our 4-1 home win over Southampton. Mark Noble scored twice that day, a free kick from very long range (at least 30 yards), and a penalty converted after a handball by Jose Fonte! I remember Andy Carroll giving the Southampton defenders a torrid time that day, something he won’t be repeating in today’s game. The other goals came from Nolan, and a fine solo effort from Maiga (remember that?).

I’m hoping that Brighton continue to find it difficult to score on their travels, and that we can come up with at least a couple of goals to win 2-0. Perhaps we can even go further and repeat the four goals of five years ago today? A 4-1 repeat of the score that day is 35/1. I won’t hold my breath.

The staccato Premier League season resumes today with a short burst of winnable fixtures for West Ham that commences with today’s visit to face Burnley at Turf Moor. The rub of the green in these games could see the Hammers scramble into the top half of the league (or first page of Teletext as it used to be known). That we tend to divide games into winnable and write-offs is a sad indictment on the predictability of the league but nonetheless they are the games where points are required if a messy relegation scrap is to be avoided.

Burnley are the surprise team of the season so far occupying sixth place in the table under the leadership of flavour of the month manager, Sean Dyche. In recent weeks, it has been claimed that Dyche’s name has been added to the list waiting for Slaven Bilic to be relieved of his London Stadium duties as well as being touted as an unlikely successor to Arsene Wenger at The Emirates; albeit only by Ian Wright. The suspicion though is that, as well as Dyche has done at Burnley, he is a graduate of the Allardyce/ Pulis school of difficult to beat and ugly wins rather an exponent of the expansive football yearned for by bigger clubs. Perhaps one day he will get the chance to prove his mettle at the top table.

The claret and blue derby is probably not the most eagerly anticipated in most people’s football calendar and a game between two of the division’s most direct sides is unlikely to dominate today’s Match of The Day coverage or engage the average neutral.

Turf Moor is one of the few remaining old school stadiums having been Burnley’s home since way back in 1883. It has previously also served as both a cricket ground and a horse race track which hopefully does not give our own owners any fresh ideas.

Head to Head

West Ham have won thirty-six and lost thirty-one of their previous eighty-four encounters with Burnley. In history the game has largely gone in favour of home advantage whereas, in more recent times, the Hammers have generally been in control – winning nine of the last twelve (home and away) and, more impressively, having secured seven wins out of the last twelve encounters in the north-west.

West Ham’s first win at Turf Moor was at the seventeenth attempt in the opening weeks of the 1959/ 60 season, a season in which Burnley went on to win the second of their two First Division titles. An amusing ‘typical West Ham‘ event occurred in November that season when, having just beaten current champions Wolves to retain top spot in the table, they then travelled away to face Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough only to lose 7-0. “They gave us a jolly good whacking” was the honest opinion of West Ham manager Ted Fenton.

Team News

Most unusually West Ham are reporting an almost fully fit squad with only James Collins unavailable for selection. Perhaps it is a coincidence or simply good fortune but sick bay occupancy has reduced remarkably since the appointment of Gary Lewin as chief medic during the summer.

It is rare for Bilic to bring a player returning from injury straight back into starting eleven contention; a state of affairs that prepares us for the (bad) news that Mark Noble will be preferred to the more effective alternative of Pedro Obiang in the centre of midfield.

In fact, we shouldn’t expect too many changes from the game against Swansea given that we ended up victorious, no matter how unconvincingly. I would imagine that Manuel Lanzini will start in a five man midfield and that we will play just one up front, where Diafra Sakho or Javier Hernandez would be the best option – so expect Andy Carroll to get the nod.  I don’t see Slav pulling any other selection surprises opening the door for Declan Rice to reprise last season’s 93rd minute substitute role.

So confident is the manager as to the squad’s level fitness and preparation for today’s game that he gave the players extra time off during the international break.  I wish this was a confidence shared!

Burnley are without several long term injuries including keeper Heaton, summer signing Walters and Marney.  It will be between Wood and Vokes as to who takes their own lone striker role.

Man In The Middle

Today’s referee is Stuart Atwell from the West Midlands. I read elsewhere that Atwell had not previously taken charge of a West Ham game but that is not the case; having officiated in Hammer Premier League away wins against Wigan (2009) and Blackpool (2011). He was subsequently demoted from the Elite referees list only to return several seasons later. He now spends time between the Championship and Premier League but is not yet trusted to handle top six games.

The 1-0 win at Wigan in 2010 was notable for Carlton Cole’s finest ever goal when he rounded off a fine Parker, Noble, Di Michele move with a ‘sumptuous’ curling finish from the edge of the area; Cole was later sent off for a second bookable offence. The game will also be remembered as when Jack Collison picked up the knee injury that would ultimately cause an early end to his career.

Predictions

Merson is going for a 1-0 Burnley while Lawro is firmly on the fence at 1-1. It is difficult to see this game as a classic. Both sides are way down the rankings for successful passes in the final third which is consistent with their direct approaches. Burnley have allowed their opponents to take way more shots than any other team in the league this season which could be encouraging if the kit-man has packed our shooting boots. West Ham have scored a meagre thirty six goals so far during 2017 – which is exactly the same number as Harry Kane!

While West Ham have the better squad on paper the evidence suggests that Burnley have superior organisation and team spirit. I can only see this as a low scoring game settled by a mistake, set piece goal, wonder strike or deflection. Finger crossed that it goes our way.