A few weeks ago when we still had 11 league games to play I enlisted the help of the Bennett Supercomputer system to predict whether or not we would finish high enough to qualify for a European place next season. It was just a bit of fun and the final conclusion was that we needed 15 points from those final 11 games to have a chance of qualifying – this left us on 57 points in eighth place – level with Newcastle on 57 but our goal difference would be inferior to theirs, and so we’d just miss out.
At that time this was the situation:
There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all have eleven games remaining apart from Chelsea with twelve. The teams from 6th to 11th are therefore:
- 6. Manchester United 44 points (27 games)
- 7. West Ham 42 points (27)
- 8. Newcastle 40 points (27)
- 9. Brighton 39 points (27)
- 10. Wolves 38 points (27)
- 11. Chelsea 36 points (26)
And this is how it looks now. You will see a newcomer (Bournemouth) have now entered the reckoning:
- 6. Manchester United 48 points (29 games)
- 7. West Ham 45 points (31)
- 8. Newcastle 44 points (30)
- 9. Brighton 43 points (30)
- 10. Wolves 42 points (30)
- 11. Bournemouth 41 points (30)
- 11. Chelsea 40 points (28)
At the time I reckoned that to get the 15 points that would give us a chance of qualification we would need to beat Burnley, Fulham and Luton, and then collect 6 points from the 6 games against Villa, Newcastle, Tottenham, Wolves, Palace and Chelsea. This could be 2 wins, 1 win and 3 draws or even (very unlikely) 6 draws. Anything more than this would be a bonus. I ruled out getting anything against Liverpool and Manchester City.
So how have we done? We only drew with Burnley, lost to Newcastle (this will be the one that we might look back upon at the end of the season I reckon), and drew with Villa and Tottenham. That leaves us needing 12 points from the last seven games that would likely be needed to reach the 57 point mark. None of the other contenders have been pulling up trees in the recent games so I still believe that 57 (as I originally forecast) could do it.
The games in question are Wolves (this weekend), Fulham, Luton, Palace, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Can we get at least 12 points from those? To reach 57 is now a tough ask after the points dropped against Burnley and Newcastle, but still possible for those of us with an optimistic disposition. Had we beaten both Burnley and Newcastle then we would now be sixth with 50 points, and in pole position for European qualification.
We have 3 home games and 4 away games remaining, we face two of the top three, one of the bottom three, two of the other contenders for 6th and 7th (important not to lose either of those) plus Fulham and Palace. From the remaining seven games we would need 4 wins, or 3 wins and 3 draws to get the 12 to take us to 57. That still might not be enough but would give us a fighting chance. I remain hopeful but would bet against it. I’ve got a feeling that we might just miss out. If we get within three points of qualification at the end of the campaign we’ll look back at the Newcastle game as just one example of a missed opportunity.
So that’s it – another whole article without mentioning the continuing Moyes In / Moyes Out issue that still dominates the forums. Such a shame that a lot of the writers involved can’t accept alternative opinions without resorting to nastiness and name calling. But that’s social media for you.
Can we finish sixth or seventh? What are the chances? What do you reckon?
Under The Hammers 
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