Match – Page 2 – Under The Hammers

Familiar Failings Ensure Turf Moor Is Less For West Ham In Season Opener

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. West Ham start the season in time honoured fashion by surrendering a two goal lead against Burnley at Turf Moor. A long, hard season awaits.

Setting The Scene

Turf Moor, Burnley. Sunday 16 August 2026. 16:00. Light clouds and light winds: 18C

Finally, another season is upon us. Some things have changed. A new division, new boardroom leadership, a new Director of Recruitment and the obligatory new season kit for sale in the club shop. Others things stubbornly remain the same. The same manager with the usual press conference blather. The same financial pressures ensuring hesitancy in the transfer market, and (thanks to relegation) the same shirt sponsor – as Championship watchers don’t need the same level of protection from unscrupulous bookies as the worldwide Premier League audience does.

And all too soon, we will know whether it’s going to be the same old safety-first tactics served up on the pitch.

Pre-Match Tension

The teams have been announced. The Hammers squad shows eight survivors from those involved in the 2-0 win at Turf Moor last February. The Clarets squad has nine.

Nuno hasn’t sprung any surprises in the West Ham starting eleven. It’s as expected with the usual vulnerabilities and lack of depth to the fore. I’m still to be convinced by Mads, I would have preferred either Diouf or Mayers at left back over Scarles, and Kilman is an ongoing worry – his score on the central defender bravery index is below the lower limit of detection.

The central midfield pairing of Kante and Orford – in the confirmed absence of Alvarez – feels very light, both in experience and defensive attributes. The inference from the list of excluded players is that the club plan to shift Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Alvarez, and Fullkrug before the end of the window. Replacements will be badly needed.

There’s a starting place for Solomon on the left and a seat on the bench for Veltman. Amusing to hear how excited each of the new signings are about the West Ham ‘project’ – almost as if it were scripted. Wasn’t it Scott Duxbury who always had a project on the go?

Hermansen, Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Scarles, Orford, Kanté, Bowen ©, Solomon, Taty, Pablo. Subs: Areola (GK), Veltman, Diouf, Mayers, Golambeckis, Ward-Prowse, Earthy, Ajala, Landers

Half Time Report

Burnley 0 West Ham 1 (Kilman, 10)

What do I know? Scarles has look bright linking up with Solomon on the left. And Kilman pops up with the only goal of the half.

It was another sluggish start from the Hammers as Burnley dominated the opening exchanges with a blast of fast, direct football. The visitor’s barely having a touch of the ball in the initial 5 or 6 minutes. But the Claret’s early threat was rudely blunted on ten minutes when Kilman escaped his marker to head home his first competitive West Ham goal from Bowen’s corner.

The goal changed the complexion of the game. West Ham taking full control, looking disciplined, well organised, hardworking and racking up a dizzy 63% possession before half-time. Albeit, without creating much in the way of clear-cut chances.

Orford looked very assured on his league debut although the partnership with Kante was leaving gaping holes through the middle to offer Burnley encouragement for the second half.

Full Time Report

Burnley 2 (Fleming, 83 (Pen), 90 + 2) West Ham 2 (Kilman, 10, Solomon 72)

It wouldn’t be a West Ham game without a head scratching substitution moment. To prove a point Nuno obliged by replacing Pablo with JWP at half-time. Initially it was assumed to be a tactical change – to reinforce the central midfield. But later suggestions cited a problem with Pablo’s calf – perhaps a repetitive strain injury from attempting to control the ball.

Would we now see a further repeat of the perplexing Pablo paradox? Can’t play with him, even worse without him!

The weird part of Nuno’s change was that in endeavouring to maintain the 4-4-2 formation, he opted to move Bowen into the centre and plonked JWP on the right wing. Suddenly, the shape and organisation that was so apparent in the first half fell into disarray. Why does this happen so often with our substitutions? It handed the initiative to Burnley as the Hammer’s defending wobbled, the whole team dropped deeper, and thoughts of adding to the goal tally became distant. A home goal looked increasingly likely.

Mavropanos and Kilman has never been the ideal central defensive partnership, and both were dominated in the air by Flemming as a succession of crosses rained in. The pairing hadn’t work in the Premier League and looked no more solid at this level.

Then, out of the blue, West Ham doubled their lead. A fine run down the right by Kante, a deflected cross, and the ball fell nicely to Solomon to rifle home. Solomon can be happy with his debut. He kept himself busy even though his movement was often frantic rather than controlled – like a bluebottle attempting to escape from a lampshade. He’s no Yossi or Eyal but an improvement over Yaniv Katan. More than competent at this level.

Surely the second goal was enough to break Burnley’s spirit. A winning start to the season was just 18 minutes and a display of careful game management away. But as West Ham tired and struggled to keep hold of the ball, the Clarets had other ideas. They became favourites in every 50-50 challenge and refused to lie down.

For all his fine attacking play before the break, Scarles’ defensive chops were repeatedly shown up in the second period. This culminated in the unnecessary and rash challenge which provided the penalty lifeline the hosts were looking for.

As the clock ticked into added time, West Ham hung on desperately. Another ball into the box, a messy scramble, a poor half-hearted clearance by Kilman, and a Burnley equaliser. Another game thrown away in the last knockings. But credit to Burnley, they were well worth their point.

The Promotion Pointathon

Scanning through the final league standings since we were last in the Championship shows that 90 points is generally a realistic target for automatic promotion. Getting there requires between 22 and 30 victories plus enough draws to make up the balance. Reaching ninety points averages out at 1.96 points per game.

The stretch target (as the HR department likes to say) would be to break the 100-point barrier. To reach a ton, needs between 27 and 33 wins at an average of 2.17 points per game.

Let’s see how we do after letting two slip away on Sunday. Playing not lose rather than playing to win is rarely the path to runaway success.

Of course, the benchmark for runaway West Ham promotion pushes is the 1980/ 81 season where, from 42 matches, the Hammers romped to 28 wins, 10 draws, and just 4 defeats. But then that was a side which could boast Parkes, Stewart, Bonds, Martin, Devonshire, Brooking and Cross among its ranks. COYI!

Hope Springs Eternal: West Ham’s Season Gets Underway at Burnley

After what feels like the usual endless summer of debate, rebuilding and speculation, the wait is almost over. West Ham finally begin the new season with a trip to Burnley on Sunday, and for some of us the opening fixture cannot come soon enough. Pre-season has given us some (limited) reasons to feel encouraged, but like every West Ham supporter, we know better than to get carried away before a competitive ball has been kicked.

The close season has brought significant change to the squad, and there is still some upheaval to come. Some familiar faces have moved on and, as always, there is a sense of uncertainty whenever experienced players leave. Every departure creates a gap, whether in quality, leadership or simply dressing room character. At the same time, football never stands still and the squad needed refreshing. The challenge for the club has been ensuring that those exits are balanced by the right arrivals rather than simply increasing the number of players on the books. Unfortunately, the end of the transfer window never coincides with the beginning of a new season so there is still a lot of dealing to be done in terms of both exits and new arrivals.

The few new signings so far have generated some cautious optimism among supporters but more need to arrive. Hopefully, there will be an attempt to bring in players who can fit a clearer style of play rather than simply collecting names in the Sullivan style. Pre-season has offered just a few glimpses of what that might look like but is this enough? The intensity still needs to be higher, the movement needs to be sharper, and there needs to be a greater willingness to move the ball quickly through midfield. Of course, friendly matches rarely tell the full story. Every summer produces teams who look outstanding in July and struggle badly by September, and vice-versa. Have we seen enough to believe there is a foundation being built? The jury is still out but the picture will become clearer once the window closes and the squad is finalised.

We are the early season favourites to win the Championship and odds on for promotion. But that doesn’t surprise me as relegated Premier League clubs often dominate the early betting markets due to parachute payments and ‘supposed’ superior squad depth with players of top- flight quality and experience. It’s no surprise that Wolves and Burnley are second and third favourites. But there are several other clubs that have realistic chances to challenge for the title and promotion. Despite their points deduction I believe Southampton will be in the mix, alongside Middlesbrough and perhaps Birmingham too. And I wouldn’t rule out Sheffield United, Wrexham and Norwich.

Jarrod Bowen staying at the club is a major boost and both he and Taty should score goals at Championship level if given a good supply of chances. But the jigsaw needs to be completed before we really know what is going to happen. More attacking quality and creativity is still needed.

Does the squad look hungry? There has been competition for places, younger players have been given opportunities to impress and some of the established figures have looked determined to set the tone for the campaign ahead. Kante and Orford both showed some evidence of promise in the League Cup last weekend, hopefully that will be maintained, and others will shine too if given the opportunity. Unlike some fans I like the signing of Veltman, an experienced, solid versatile defender who should add to the leadership at the back, and in the dressing room.

But as West Ham supporters we are not without concerns. We never are. The squad is still a work in progress. Depending on how the remainder of the transfer window develops, there will still probably be areas requiring further strengthening. Injuries, as we know only too well, can quickly expose weaknesses. The opening weeks of the season often test the depth of a squad far more than its strongest starting eleven.

Last season had its difficult moments, especially early on, and there were periods when optimism was hard to find. The summer has at least brought a sense of reset. A new season offers hope, even if experience teaches us that hope and reality do not always travel hand in hand where West Ham are concerned.

The first test at Burnley is unlikely to be straightforward. Turf Moor has never been a venue where points are simply handed out. Burnley will see the opening game as an opportunity to make a statement of their own, and the atmosphere should be intense from the first whistle. Early season fixtures are often decided less by quality and more by organisation, concentration and willingness to compete.

That is why the opening half-hour could be crucial. I hope we have learned from the slow opening period against Portsmouth. Burnley are likely to start aggressively, feeding off their home support and attempting to put us under pressure. We will need to handle that initial period sensibly. There is no need for panic if the game becomes scrappy. In fact, the team that keeps its composure is often the one that comes away with the result on opening weekend.

Midfield could be the key battleground. If we can establish some control and dictate the tempo, our attacking players should find opportunities. The signs from pre-season suggest that there is some creativity within the squad (more still needed though), but competitive football demands more than attractive passages of play. It requires discipline out of possession and clinical finishing when chances arrive.

Defensively, we will also need to be stronger and more consistent than we have been at times in recent seasons. Supporters can accept the occasional mistake, but what frustrates us is when goals are conceded through preventable errors. A solid defensive performance on Sunday would provide an important platform for the rest of the campaign.

Looking beyond Burnley, there is genuine reason to believe this season can be productive, but expectations should probably remain realistic. What most West Ham supporters want is progress. We want to see a team with an identity, a squad that competes every week and players who are committed to the shirt.

If we get some quality new arrivals and they settle quickly, and if the core of the squad stays fit and the positive elements of pre-season carry into competitive matches, there is every chance that this could be an enjoyable campaign. Some talent is there. The challenge is turning potential into consistency. The Championship is known for its unpredictability over a 46-game season, and the league’s ultra-competitive nature means surprises are common.

For now, though, all thoughts lead to Burnley. Sunday represents a fresh start, a chance to put the frustrations of the past behind us and begin building momentum. As supporters, we travel with the usual mixture of excitement, hope and nervousness. That is what following West Ham has always been about.

The forthcoming season will not be defined by one match, but a positive result at Turf Moor would set the right tone. After another summer of change, we finally get the opportunity to see what this team is really capable of. But we won’t really know what we are capable of until all the exits and arrivals are finalised when the window closes. Like every West Ham fan, I am optimistic, cautious, worried, hopeful and excited in equal measure. We never know what we are going to get. The journey starts now.

It’s A West Ham Scorcher: Seven Minute Sunny Spell Triggers Soaring Expectations

As West Ham progress through to the second round of the Carabao cup, there is a danger of being seduced by an emphatic scoreline that was not as flattering as it looks.

A wise man once proclaimed, “the truth of the battle is whatever the victor deems it to be.’ I’m not sure who it was, but probably some Chinese fella such as Master Po from the 1970’s Kung Fu TV series. In this spirit, significant swaths of the West Ham commentariat have deemed to interpret Saturday’s ‘comfortable’ 3 – 1 win against Portsmouth as an omen of a glorious Championship season to come. I fear this might be somewhat premature.

The reality of the performance was quite different. Although a pre-season friendly feel still hung in the air, the familiar fragile foibles of last season continued to haunt the London Stadium. A slow start, giving away possession, an inability to play through the lines, stilted movement, and a general lack of adventure. A repeat showing next weekend will result in a very unhappy return trip from East Lancashire.

Let’s remember that Portsmouth are a very average Championship side. They finished 18^th last season and will most likely be in and around the lower reaches once more this time around. They looked tidy in possession but with (fortunately) little cutting edge. How and why were they able to dominate so completely for the first 40 minutes of the game is perplexing. Before the Hammers grabbed the equaliser, I believe they were trending at 65% possession.

In his post-match comments, Nuno praised the movement and combinations on show for each of the West Ham goals. But where had those attributes been hiding prior to the seven-minute goal blitz. A period where the best on offer were spells of pointless passing across the back – followed by hopeful punts up field once other options had been exhausted.

When Nuno is interviewed after games, he will frequently suggest that the way we play week in, week out is not what he wants. He is delighted by those brief moments where the team discovers its swaggers, where passing and movement spring to life, and confidence on the ball spreads through the team. Why then, do the players find it so difficult to deliver what he says he wants – and what, we must assume, he prepares them for? Do they not understand the instructions, are they scared to take any risks, is there no leadership on the pitch? How can the same plan fail in the same way with such monotonous regularity?

And what caused the sudden change of heart for those seven glorious minutes? The shock of going a goal behind? Or had someone spiked the hydration break water bottles with shots of concentrated Carabao Raspberry energy burst?

The idea of West Ham as runaway league leaders of the Championship built upon limited possession, scoring on the break, and lengthy periods of defensive game management seems highly implausible. A speculative long shot even though my knowledge of the breadth and depth of quality in the Championship is largely unknown. I just don’t see a quick return to the top level in prospect without a significant boost to the squad’s resources over the remaining days of the transfer window.

It is never ideal to leave most of your transfer business until after the season has started but it is a habit that has proven hard to break. The players yet to leave may be just as important as the new recruits as the club endeavours to manage its shaky finance, comply with the new squad ratio rules and buy a new drive belt for the broken fax machine. As a minimum, I expect we are hoping to offload the attitudes and costs of all three of Todibo, AWB and Fullkrug before the end of the month. Incomings must then address the most pressing gaps in what remains a dangerously sketchy squad.

My simple view when assessing players is that they must primarily be competent in fulfilling the basic purpose of their role. It’s no use being the greatest keeper with the ball at your feet if your handling is weak and you cannot dominate the area. Futile being a ball playing centre half or marauding full back if you don’t have the bravery or positional nous to the fundamental defensive duties. Pointless running around all day, huffing and puffing as a forward if you’re not scoring goals or providing assists. Sadly, we fall down in so many positions. Astute prioritisation and a process of make do and mend will be of over-riding importance.

If it was my decision, creative midfield and wide left would top the list followed by striker and centre back reinforcements. Hopefully, each of these can be satisfied even if it means some are loans from Premier League clubs.

We should forget to mention that there were some decent performances on Saturday. Taty and Jarrod Bowen showed they are sure to score goals at this level – and plenty of them given the right service. KWP did well and we saw flashes (but not the whole of the moon) from Lewis Orford and Mo Kante. I’d hope to see more of the latter pair but doubt they can yet be relied upon to carry the midfield through a gruelling 46 match season.

Listening to Nuno speak, I often detect an air of Master Po’s eastern mysticism in his persona. It would be entertaining and just as informative if he injected a hint of far-eastern philosophical nonsense into his press conferences. Reporter: “Jacob Waffle, Stratford Examiner, will you continue with the same ultra-cautious approach to games in the Championship that we saw last year in the Premier League?” Nuno: “Seek not to know the answers, but to understand the questions, Grasshopper”.

It’s worth a try and would make about as much sense as the usual answers. COYI!

Two Games to Go: West Ham’s Survival Equation

With only two matches remaining, West Ham’s Premier League survival bid has reached its simplest and most uncomfortable form. There are no longer scenarios to project deep into the future, no room for recalibration, and no benefit in revisiting earlier turning points. What matters now is what can still be done, and whether this squad is capable of doing it.

At this stage of the season, survival ceases to be about long‑term trends and becomes a test of short‑term execution. Form over months counts for little. Tactics, mentality, and decision‑making under pressure count for everything. West Ham’s position reflects a season defined by inconsistency, fragility, and missed opportunities, but it does not yet render survival impossible.

The case for West Ham staying up rests on moments rather than momentum. We are not a team carrying a sustained run of results into the final fortnight, but neither are we a team that is completely detached from the fight. On the whole the performances in 2026 have been good enough for a reasonable league position but we were perhaps too far behind to realistically stay up with any comfort or perhaps stay up at all. At times performances have fluctuated (Brentford), but certainly in the last four months we have not collapsed entirely. That distinction matters. Teams that go down early often look beaten well before mathematics confirm it. West Ham, for all our faults, are still competing to the end.

Whether that proves enough depends partly on what we do, but also what Tottenham do. With two games to go, the deficit is two points. Added to that we have an inferior goal difference. If Tottenham win both of their games we are down, if they win one and draw one we are down. Both scenarios mean that we are relegated whatever we do. If Tottenham win one and lose one we need to win both of our games to survive. If they draw both of them we still need to win twice to remain a Premier League side. Even if they draw one and lose the other we still need a win and a draw. And if they lose twice we still need to win one of our remaining two games. Basically we have to collect three more points than them to stay up. We cannot shape events entirely on our own terms.

It’s FA Cup Final weekend. We’ve got two of them! Of the two contenders for the third relegation spot we play first at the strange time of 5.30 on Sunday evening. And despite Newcastle’s indifferent season this is not the easiest of games. If, and it’s a big if, we can somehow pull off a win in the North-East then we could perhaps have a psychological edge. We would climb out of the bottom three at least until Tottenham go to West London to face a Chelsea team who have been poor for the latter part of the season. Chelsea, who at one time were destined to challenge for a Champions League place, now sit ninth in the table and have collected just one point in their last seven games, the worst record in the whole division, and they have only scored two goals in those games. If only they had faced Chelsea earlier in the season when they were playing well! We can only hope that a London Derby with no love lost between them can inspire the West Londoners.

So it hardly looks promising, does it? The only scenario where we go into the final game with it in our own hands is a West Ham win in the North-East and a Tottenham defeat in West London. We would both then face home fixtures; we entertain Leeds while Tottenham face Everton. I’d rather have our fixture than theirs, but both games would be tense and nervy if relegation is still undecided by then.

Home fixtures take on a different character at this point. Crowd involvement can distort expectation, and force matches into uncomfortable territories. The London Stadium has seen this dynamic work both for and against West Ham in recent seasons. But ask me now and I’d take this position without hesitation. In fact, I’d take going into the last game with something still to play for even if we weren’t in the driving seat. To have taken it this far seemed unlikely if we think back to January when we were seven points adrift.

Ultimately, West Ham’s chances of staying up are very narrow. Defeat in Newcastle would leave Tottenham needing just a point from their final two games. That must be avoided at all costs if we are to have any hope. But for the moment another Great Escape is still a possibility, however remote, and that’s all we can cling to. If we fail, the postmortem can begin.

One Nil To The VARsenal: Two Tier Refereeing May Finally Have Relegated West Ham

A spirited Hammer’s performance is to no avail as a zombie strike and the dark arts of Arsenal and VAR strip them of a point in the dying minutes of Sunday’s London Stadium clash

Football was once such a simple game. It was simplicity that defined its beauty and popularity. Sure, the laws of the game have always been a matter of subjective interpretation, but refereeing gaffes were mostly forgotten by the time it took to reach the platform at Upton Park station. Then came the big money, the detailed media scrutiny, the game’s tactical and physical overload, the PGMOL and its cadre of celebrity refs. What a mighty mess it has become.

As a supporter holding varying opinions are part of the game’s appeal. If you think Tomas Soucek is the beating heart of West Ham and I think he is a liability most of the time, it really makes no odds. But when it comes to officiating erratic variation is unacceptable. We need consistency and fairness without fear nor favour. Infringements to treated equally no matter where on the pitch they occur. We shouldn’t need to worry about elapsed time when one player is holding another’s shirt, all shirt pulling should be penalised. If it was, it would soon stop. As would grappling at corners. As would players cheating by diving in the area. Or players getting away with constantly complaining to the referee provided they wave no imaginary cards.

Threats to clamp down on cheating have a long history but other than sending off Manuel Lanzini, nothing has ever come of it. Any coincidence that it is the ‘elite’ clubs who are most enamoured with the game’s dark arts? Do they have a Dark Arts coach?

If a spy had been sent along the Arsenal training ground, I’m certain they would have returned with tales of Arteta holding diving and squealing drills. Everyone knows they do it, yet a supposedly experienced referee in Chris Kavanagh bought the con all afternoon – like a gullible toddler falling for a three-card trick. But such naivety collapsed into insignificance compared to the added time VAR imbroglio that would sour the outcome.

I predicted in last week’s article that Nuno would resort to three centre backs for this game and that is exactly what happened. Jean-Clair Todibo coming in and Pablo dropping to the bench. Aaron Wan-Bissaka was also favoured over Kyle Walker-Peters.

The Hammers started cautiously and showed little enterprise in the opening exchanges. But following a flurry of early scares and scrambles, they settled down to contain Arsenal relatively comfortably. For a team leading the table the Gunners had little invention until Odegaard was introduced. Set pieces being the greatest danger to the West Ham goal. Arteta’s weird decision to react to White’s injury by moving Rice to full back offered the Hammer’s encouragement, and the half ended with a long range Taty header well saved by Raya.

For once, Nuno’s men were quick to shake off their half-time slumbers and managed to stifle what attacking threat the visitors could muster – mainly Saka shooting over the bar. The game’s first major turning point came in the 78^th minute when Mateus Fernandes wriggled clear in the six-yard box and rather than aim for the wide-open spaces at the goal’s far corner shot tamely against the keeper’s legs. An xG of 110% if I’ve ever seen one!

Five minutes later and Arsenal were one up. There is very little to admire when watching Arteta’s Arsenal – unless ruthless, underhand efficiency is your entertainment of choice. And high on the list of unlikeables is Leandro Trossard, a player who would be at home as an extra on the Walking Dead – there must be some zombie genes in there somewhere. True to form though, having spent the entire afternoon griping and bellyaching to all and sundry he pops up with the decisive goal.

But the games true drama was yet to come. Nuno’s last throw of the dice was the belated arrival of supersub Callum Wilson. Immediately, he was presented with a good shooting opportunity, blocked on the line. Then moments later he fired home what should have been a vital equaliser. The stadium erupted. A fiesta of joyous screaming, yelling, shouting, jumping and dancing. It may not have been enough to save the season, but it was just reward for the spirit and attitude demonstrated by the players.

But the cancer of VAR had other ideas. Let’s face it, once the check started we all knew the outcome would be inevitble. Clear and obvious be blowed. This was a decision of expedience. What conclusion would generate the minimum fallout. Darren England took and age, umming and ahhing before evading all responsibility with a hospital pass back to the referee. Kavanagh stood in a trance watching the same clip 17 times before reaching his self-interest conclusion. After review, I have decided which side my bread is buttered and find for the prosecution.

All season, there have been complaints about the grappling and wrestling at corners pioneered by Arsenal. It has been the source of many goals for them, and they may well hold a patent on it. As the corner came in there were bodies flying and colliding everywhere. Rice was manhandling Mavropanos, Trossard had his arms around Pablo, yet Pablo’s coming together with Raya was the only incident deemed worthy of review. Why no penalty check?

We know from experience that if you watch the same clip over and over again, from different angles, and in slow motion, it will start to look dodgy. The reason so many pundits were convinced of Paqueta’s guilt in the Betway betting fiasco.

Again, the inconsistency of VAR was to the fore. A review that took so long to complete could not be classed as clear and obvious. And what of proximate cause? Had Trossard not been grappling Pablo, would his arm have gone anywhere near the advancing keeper?

Pablo must have dreamed of finally making such a decisive impact on a game – but not like this. As an aside, I’ve only recently discovered Pablo is the son of Brazilian footballer, Pena, a former teammate of Nuno at Porto. His signing, a modern-day equivalent of Moyes buying Jordan Hugill from his cash strapped Preston North End mates.

Who cannot see that the micro analysis of VAR has been terrible for fans and the spontaneity of the game? It’s concerning itself with incidents that were never an issue before its introduction. The only beneficiaries are the broadcasters given privileged access to the conversations that take place. Granting them talking points to liven up the underwhelming product that Premier League football often is. One further action interlude alongside scanning for celebrities in the crowd and endless action replays while the on-field action continues.

It quite amazing that the clubs were given the option to abandon VAR in the summer but decided (apart from Wolves) to vote against it.

The Hammer’s plight looks beyond desperate now – although that could change if Leeds do the decent thing and beat Tottenham tonight. As for the title, I would love it, love it, if Arsenal bottled it in the last two games – and then get thrashed in the Champions League final. COYI!

The trapdoor is open: West Ham’s Three Game Fight To Stay Up

One point behind Spurs, two realistically when you look at the goal difference, a brutal run-in, and no margin for error

Three matches rarely feel like a season, but that is exactly what West Ham are facing as the 2025–26 Premier League campaign enters its closing stretch. With two clubs already down and one final trapdoor still open, the Hammers’ run-in is less about style points and more about survival; we must turn the London Stadium into a pressure cooker, find points in all three games probably, and hope the margins fall our way.

The Premier League table explains the anxiety. After 35 games, West Ham sit 18th on 36 points with a goal difference of -19, one point behind Tottenham Hotspur in 17th on 37 points (Spurs’ goal difference is -9). Burnley (20 points) and Wolves (18 points) have already been relegated, leaving one remaining relegation place that now looks like a straight shootout between the Hammers and Spurs. Mathematically Forest and Palace are still involved but let’s be realistic; they are safe.

In practical terms, West Ham’s fate is no longer in our own hands. Being a point adrift means simply “matching” Tottenham’s results won’t be enough; West Ham need to outscore Spurs by at least a point over the final three fixtures. And if the clubs finish level on points, goal difference becomes pivotal. With Spurs ten goals better off, we cannot assume being level on points will save us unless we can dramatically swing the numbers in three games, a very unlikely and probably virtually impossible task at this stage.

That’s why the fixture list matters as much as the points. West Ham’s final three are brutally defined; Arsenal at home, Newcastle away, and Leeds at home. Tottenham’s closing schedule is Leeds at home, Chelsea away, and Everton at home. Both of us have two home games but on paper, (was it Brian Clough who once said games are played on grass not paper?) Spurs have the gentler run-in, while West Ham must find a way to take something from the league leaders and a recently resurgent Newcastle before a finale that could become a do-or-die game. I hope we still have a chance to escape when the final game comes around but it might be all over by then.

First comes Arsenal, top of the league and still with their own title business to finish. That cuts both ways for West Ham. Arsenal’s quality raises the difficulty level, but the stakes can also tighten a contender’s legs, especially in a hostile away environment. For the Hammers, the aim does not have to be perfect football; it has to be a plan that keeps the game alive, stay compact, manage the first 20 minutes, and give the fans a reason to believe that a point (or more) is possible. A defeat coupled with a Tottenham win over Leeds could almost be curtains for us. The deficit would then be four points, which with the goal difference taken into account would require winning the last two games and hoping Tottenham don’t manage more than one point from their last two.

If we still have a chance of survival when we reach the final game then that closing match at home to Leeds with a home crowd, familiar surroundings, and an opponent with less to play for could still be interesting. But final-day games are notorious for ignoring logic. If survival comes down to 90 minutes, West Ham will want to arrive with as much control over the narrative as possible, and I can’t see that happening under any circumstances. It would be a miracle to arrive here with it in our own hands. At best we would be relying on David Moyes’ Everton to lend a hand.

The reality is that unless we can pick up an improbable four points against Arsenal and Newcastle, which is what I expect Tottenham to get against Leeds and Chelsea then the final game of the season may well be our final game in the Premier League for at least a season and sadly, potentially longer.

Predictive models underline the scale of the task. Opta’s supercomputer has placed West Ham as the likeliest, projecting relegation in roughly three-quarters of its simulations. Deep Block, the Under the Hammers supercomputer, which has been bullish for the last nine games, is more pessimistic now and projects the drop at 93% likely at this stage of the season.

So what does survival likely require? Seven unlikely points might do it. That may not be enough though. Even three wins might not be enough but it probably would be and it would certainly make life interesting! Our chances are very slim but not mathematically hopeless. Not yet anyway. The survival path still exists, the margins are clear, and the incentive could not be sharper. The question is whether we can produce three defining performances before the season runs out of road. If I’m honest I don’t really think we are good enough. You reap what you sow. And sadly the seeds we’ve sown in recent times have produced the harvest that we deserve.

They Think It’s All Over: The Impending West Ham Apocalypse Looks Increasingly Certain

A double whammy of West Ham surrender and Tottenham victory leaves the Hammers on the precipice of relegation. What we see in the abyss is not a pretty sight.

The weekend results couldn’t really have gone any worse. We are left floundering like the hapless guest in the election special studio. The votes have been cast, the exit polls announced, your party has almost certainly lost but you are obliged to put on the bravest possible despite the inevitable outcome. Desperate soundbites about fighting on, giving it our best, still having hope. So many tears I’ve cried, so much pain inside, but it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

Some weeks ago, I had suggested that if West Ham were going to earn survival under their own steam, then the visits to Palace and Brentford would be critical games. Three or more points from those two matches should be the minimum return. The alternative was a reliance that our relegation rivals would perform even worse. Once the Palace game fizzled out into a lacklustre draw, Saturday’s trip to the Gtech Stadium took on even greater importance.

Not unexpectedly, Nuno named an unchanged side for the game. Why not? It had served him well enough in recent weeks even though quantifying its magic ingredient had been impossible to articulate. Had it just been a long run of good luck that had seen us rocket up the form table? In truth, we’d hardly taken any game by the scruff of the neck. And playing two consecutive halves of dominant front foot football in any fixture had proven equally elusive.

The Hammers looked nervy from the off. More mis-controls and misplaced passes than usual before finally settling down to a semblance of normality. An early opportunity for the Bees, an even better one for Pablo, before Brentford capitalised on indecisive defending at the far post to open the scoring.

The set-back prompted West Ham’s best spell of the game. Almost immediately, Taty hit the post, fluffed a good headed opportunity and later struck the post once again. There was a hearty cheer when Dinos headed powerfully home from a Diouf free-kick, but it was not to VAR’s liking. One ear and part of a shoulder were deemed to be offside at the point the lines were drawn. It is ridiculous that VAR looks at anything other than the position of the feet when drawing those offside lines.

There is an argument that with a little luck we could have been leading at the break. But that ignores the Damsgaard miss that followed the comical heading attempt by Hermansen, and the surprisingly weak finish by Thiago when put through on goal.

Any ideas of a storming comeback would be dashed early in the second half. Once again, the Hammers had left their resolve back in the dressing room and when Diouf’s stupid going to ground tackle gifted the Bees a penalty, it was effectively game over – notwithstanding Summerville making it a hattrick of woodwork interventions and the denial of two reasonable penalty shouts by referee Craig Pawson and Eddie (not so) Smart on VAR duty.

Brentford have a no-nonsense side which has been assembled at minimal cost. It contains no prima-donnas, and every man is competent in the basics of the game – run, control and pass. The same cannot be said for our sorry mob. The Bees completed the misery by adding a third indicating that Nuno’s emperor’s new clothes formation had been well and truly found out. The limitations of players who are either too slow, tactically naïve or possess below par technical skills cannot punch above their weight forever. Once the weaknesses have been identified, exploiting them is relatively straightforward for any astute opposition coach.

Most will be familiar with Einsteins definition of insanity as “doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Well, welcome to Nuno’s theory of game management. His substitutions were once again baffling in their timing and personnel – topped off by subjecting Pablo to a full 90 minutes’ worth of humiliation.

Week by week, I’ve been willing Pablo to cast off the no-goals-scored burden from his shoulders to reveal the true footballer underneath. But now I’m wondering whether he has ever played the game before. It would be no surprise to learn he is another long-lost cousin of George Weah. Could it be the ridiculous beard that’s slowing him down?

That early miss on Saturday summed him up perfectly. No pace, cumbersome, poor control and completely devoid of confidence.

I’m fully resigned to relegation now. It would be a huge shock if it doesn’t happen. The likelihood of further twists and turns in the relegation battle are as improbable as witnessing twists and turns by our players on the pitch. For them, sequences of sideways and backwards passing remain de rigueur.

It will be title-chasing Arsenal up next. The Hammers record against the Gunners is very poor. Four wins from the last 27 league games, with only one of those victories at home – thanks to Declan Rice’s only goal of the game in January 2019. It’s guaranteed that Nuno will go three at the back for this one and pin all his hopes on a miracle.

Should the inevitable happen, it will be my sixth West Ham relegation experience. The current state of the club suggests a far longer stint in the doldrums than we have seen before. A squad stripped of its remaining quality rattling around in the half-empty stadium bowl is not an appealing thought. What lies beneath is frightening.

The club are quick to put out Behind The Scenes videos on the rare occasion of a victory. A true behind the scenes look at West Ham would reveal little is going on behind the curtain. It’s all a façade. A club with no strategy, with sub-standard infrastructure and an amateurish approach to player recruitment. We can only look in awe at how well run clubs such as Bournemouth, Brentford, and Brighton are as they strive for European football on limited resources.

How will it be possible for West Ham to handle the massive turnover in personnel that relegation would trigger while avoiding the perils of a points deductions that non-compliance with the Championship’s PSR rules would bring. Leicester City, here we come!

As I see it, Mavropanos, Todibo, Diouf, Fernandes, Summerville, Bowen and possibly Soucek will all be sold to balance the books. Disasi will return to his parent club. And Taty and Wan-Bissaka will be drafting their come-and-get-me pleas as we speak. It leaves a squad built around Kilman, Pablo, a handful of youngsters and anyone else who cannot be profitably unloaded (the return of Alvarez, JWP & Fulkrug perhaps?). What a dismal thought.

Your cut out and keep guide to the grand West Ham everything must go 2026 fire sale is shown below.

What a mess. I never felt more like singing the (claret and) blues. COYI!

With a visit to Brentford this weekend survival is still in West Ham’s own hands.

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer forecasts what will happen.

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has got it right once again. We beat Everton with a late winner from Callum Wilson. It was a nail-biting last few minutes wasn’t it? We were clinging on to a one goal lead while Spurs were drawing at Wolves, potentially opening the safety gap to four points. Then Spurs went ahead and it was back to two and then Everton equalised and we were back in the bottom three. Then it was almost too late but we did what we should have done earlier and went forward instead of this habit of retreating to hold on to a lead. And this time it worked and with four games to go we are two points to the good again.

Forest had taken the three easiest points of their season when Sunderland capitulated in 37 first half minutes, a disgraceful performance in my book. Leeds are almost, but not yet mathematically out of the relegation equation but three points in their forthcoming game at home to already relegated and Parker-less Burnley could ensure retention of Premier League football for them next season. Forest have daylight, so the smart money it seems is on West Ham and Tottenham arguing over the race to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

If say, Tottenham were to pull off a shock win at Villa who can be inconsistent (losing three of their last six games) and West Ham were to manage three points at Brentford then Forest could be dragged back into it if they fail to win at Stamford Bridge. Only ifs I know but they are still looking over their shoulder. Of course the ideal would be West Ham to win and Forest and Tottenham both to lose! The current position with four games to go:

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	40	+6
Nottingham Forest	16th	39	+5
West Ham	17th	36	+2
Tottenham	18th	34	0

Fixtures remaining (4)

West Ham: Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)

Tottenham: Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)

Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leeds: Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is tough but the away games are against sides not in form. Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious free hit and unlikeliest three points but how are they going to react as the season comes towards a close? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps more winnable than they might have seemed a while ago. Real three point trips? Brentford, for example have now drawn five of their last six games and lost the other one. Newcastle have lost their last four in a row. That leaves the final day game at the London Stadium at home to Leeds.

Spurs have all “pressure fixtures” stacked together. They are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home.

Forest’s difficulty is potentially believing they have done enough already. They may have but Deep Block believes they have the toughest run-in of the four. Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Newcastle is perhaps their easiest game of the four but a final day home game against an in-form Bournemouth team won’t be easy if there is still something to play for. Their five point cushion may seem comfortable at this point but it will become nervous for them if the gap narrows.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most likely to survive because they have points already earned and they have perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as three likely points. The smart money continues to be West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th.

Projecting forward to the final four games Deep Block believes the final table will be:

Team	Position	Points
Leeds	15th	45
Nottingham Forest	16th	42
West Ham	17th	41
Tottenham	18th	40

That gives Tottenham 6 points in the final 4 games, Leeds 5, West Ham 5, and Forest 3. But football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are akin to guesswork. At least after falling seven points adrift early in 2026 we’ve reached the stage where with four games to go survival is in our own hands. Anything can still happen. And it probably will. COYI!

Super Callum, Tom’s Fantastic, VAR’s Audacious

Late drama at the London Stadium and Molineux plus VAR controversy made it Saturday 3PM kick-off to remember as West Ham overcome David Moyes’ Everton to boost hopes of survival.

In the end it was an inconclusive set of weekend results as far as the relegation stakes were concerned. With three of the runners carving out victories, it is as you were but with one fewer round of games to play. And no clearer indication of who will claim the final drop spot.

Internet speculation suggests that wins for West Ham and Tottenham have dragged Forest, Leeds (and even Newcastle) back into the frame. But this feels no more than an extravagant talking point to me. Newcastle already have sufficient points (and goal difference) in the bag to keep them up. Leeds enough easy games – including trips to Tottenham and West Ham – to pick up the point or two required. While a Forest side with nine goals in their last two matches are highly unlikely relegation fodder.

What that leaves, of course, is the impending theatrical showdown between ourselves and the long-standing arch-rivals and nemesis from north London, Tottenham Hotspur. Good versus evil. Light versus dark. Right versus wrong. Jam versus clotted cream first on a tea-time scone.

In theory, destiny remains in our own hands. Win all the remaining games or out-point Tottenham and it will be them rather than us with the largest stadium rattling around in the Championship. But relegation battles rarely work out that easily. A slip here, a lucky break there, a bad injury, a Pablo goal, a bout of nerves, under committed opponents, and poor officiating. All are potential unscripted game changers.

As expected, Nuno opted for the same personnel and formation that has served him well since the January transfer window. This meant starting berths once again for the enigmatic pairing of Taty and Pablo. They move in mysterious, unconvincing ways but somehow it get results. No-one quite knows why, how or what purpose they serve other than their presence makes a difference. A little like your appendix or tonsils.

Incredibly, since being robbed blind by incompetent VAR officials in the home fixture with Forest, West Ham have accumulated 22 points from 13 games. Extrapolated to a full season this would equate to 64 points and possible European qualification. Not bad for a team of misfits – even if they are misfits with an exemplary team spirit.

The first half at the London Stadium was as cagey as they come. Perhaps no surprise with two managers who would consider a bouncy castle as the epitome of an extreme sport. A couple of quick Everton breaks which Barry was always going to miss. An enterprising Hammers attack, a teasing Jarrod Bowen cross, but with no Callum Wilson on the pitch to finish it off. That was as good as it got.

The second period started much brighter and with greater intensity from the home side. Within five minutes they had taken the lead. A characteristic high lunge assault on Taty by England’s Number One warranted no more than the award of a corner. Everton’s relief was short-lived, however, as Tomas Soucek rose above everyone else to glance home Bowen’s kick.

I’m generally conflicted by the value Big Tom brings to the team. How his limitations in open play balance out against his aerial contributions in either box, and his overall impeccable attitude. Right now, there is no-one better and the same rationale applies as it does to the inclusion of Taty and Pablo. Don’t fix what isn’t broken. Yet this was to be Tom’s special day. Even more satisfying than the most delicious potato salad as he followed up his opening goal with two superb clearances that looked certain equalisers

For a brief period after the goal it looked as if West Ham would press forward in search of a second goal. But it didn’t last for long. When Moyes made an uncommon early substitution, replacing a defender with a midfielder, the complexion of the game changed immediately. The Hammers dropped deeper and deeper. Nuno had nothing up his sleeve.

Everton sensed their opportunity. They were getting plenty of joy down their left-hand side where KWP struggled with the overload and the crosses rained in. The world and his wife knew an equaliser was on the cards, it was only a matter of time. Nuno eventually turned to his bench but never subscribes to the attack as the best form of defence philosophy. The extent of the game management was to pack the final third and hope for the best. It’s never worked in the past, but you never know your luck!

The tension grew. Tottenham had scored at Molineux. Around the stadium and in front of TV sets, knuckles were cracked, feet tapped, hands wrung, nails bitten, lips chewed, phones checked, teeth ground, and arms folded sternly. And then it happened. An Everton goal and West Ham were back into the bottom three. What a disaster!

Miraculously, the drama didn’t end there. West Ham did what they should have been doing all along and went back onto the front foot. The ball was worked across field to Malick Diouf. An excellent cross to the far post. An intelligent downward header back across goal by Bowen. The ball rolling in slow motion into the path of Callum Wilson. Right player at the right time. 2-1.

Naturally, it wouldn’t have been a Premier League game without a few quirks and idiosyncrasies of VAR thrown in. In an era where there is an increasing arbitrariness to the decisions made by officials, it more often comes down to precedence and current practice than what is written down in the rule book. That’s why it was such a shock that the Fernandes ‘handball’ although unintentional was not given as a penalty. Yet Everton’s indignance could equally countered by the unpunished Pickford assault on Taty, and the blatant two-handed push by (the already booked) Garner on Axel Disasi. But with offences now only being offences in certain areas of the pitch, and subjective judgements routinely made on acceptable duration of a shirt pull, how long a challenge is deemed to carry on for, or the comparative force of any push, officiating is more lottery than understandable.

And where was the protection for Crysencio Summerville who was systematically fouled by a succession of Everton players throughout the game. Four Toffees finding their names in the referee’s book as a result.

The whole relegation circus moves on to Brentford next weekend. The Bees have yet to play this weekend, but whatever happens at Old Trafford tonight they will still be in with a chance of European qualification. Everyone knows what to expect from their aerial bombardment and the keeper and defence need to be operating at peak concentration and bravery to keep them at bay. More importantly, Nuno must go there with victory rather than avoiding defeat at the front of his mind. It is an opportunity to put further daylight between us and the enemy who will be travelling to Aston Villa.

What might ultimately carry the Hammers through to safety is the outstanding spirit pulsing through the squad. It might make all the difference over the final few weeks. In the words of honorary cockney, Dick Van Dyke: “No where is there a more ‘appier crew, Than them wot sings, chim chim cher-ee, chim cher-oo.” COYI!

With Everton visiting the London Stadium this weekend, here is West Ham’s Five Game Survival Path

The Under the Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block has nailed another one. We escaped Selhurst Park with a point. Views differ as to whether or not this was a good point, or whether it was a chance missed to open the gap over Tottenham to four points. Spurs also stalled. Their ridiculous celebrations when they went 2-1 ahead contributed to an additional eight minutes and hence Brighton’s equaliser in time added on. Their own fault you could say. Forest and Leeds took maximum points. That combination matters because with only five to play, the maths are starting to bite. Leeds and Forest have daylight, while West Ham and Tottenham may now be arguing over one chair to finish seventeenth. Or are there more twists to come?

Team	Position	Points	Cushion vs 18th
Leeds	15th	39	+8
Nottingham Forest	16th	36	+5
West Ham	17th	33	+2
Tottenham	18th	31	0

Fixtures remaining (5)

West Ham: Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Leeds (H)
Tottenham: Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Everton
Nottingham Forest: Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Man United (A), Bournemouth (H)
Leeds: Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)

So who has the hardest run-in? One way to look at this is who still has fixtures where they can realistically pick up an important three points. West Ham’s run is high-variance: Arsenal at home would seem to be the obvious near-zero / free hit but how are Arsenal going to react to their lead at the top disappearing? Brentford and Newcastle away are perhaps “one point is fine, three points is a steal” trips. Brentford, for example have now drawn their last five games whereas Newcastle have lost their last three. The saving grace could be Everton (this weekend) and Leeds at home. Two games where the stadium can drag us over the line, but only if we turn up. We are the only one of the four teams in question who have three of our final five games at home. Could this be an advantage? We certainly really need to win this weekend, and not losing is imperative. If it goes down to the wire as many predict then the final day could be a party or a very nervous affair. It depends what points are in the bank before then.

Spurs have the opposite problem with fewer obvious bankers and loads of “pressure fixtures” stacked together. Wolves away is the gateway; lose or draw that and Spurs are chasing away wins against Villa and Chelsea. And just like West Ham they face Leeds and Everton at home. If they are to survive they probably need to turn ‘not losing’ into winning.

Forest’s difficulty is top-heavy, and Deep Block believes they may have the toughest run-in of the four. Sunderland, Chelsea (if they can recover from their disastrous run) and United away are not the easiest of fixtures, and home wins against Newcastle and Bournemouth may be what they need to ensure safety. Their five point cushion may seem good at this point but if West Ham and Tottenham can win at the weekend and they lose then it may become nervous for them too.

Leeds have the biggest cushion and the game against Burnley at home could virtually clinch safety. They still have a big say with visits to Spurs and /West Ham so it’s not quite a done deal yet but very close to it.

So what is the current verdict? Leeds and Forest look the most survivable profiles because they have points already earned and perhaps at least one fixture you can pencil in as “gettable” without squinting too hard. The battle line is West Ham versus Tottenham for 17th. West Ham’s path is clearer if they can win home ground fixtures against Everton and Leeds and treat Brentford and Newcastle as bonus territory. Spurs’ path is narrower. If they don’t beat Wolves away, they’re basically asking to hit an improbable points target and hope that everyone else plays along. If they beat Wolves though and West Ham don’t win then it changes again.

Looking at their last five games and projecting forward to the final five then it would seem very simple. Forest have collected 9 points, Leeds 8 points, West Ham 8 points and Tottenham 2 points. On that basis, Tottenham remain by far the likeliest to finish 18th unless they finally turn a draw and loss streak into a run of wins starting immediately. But we all know it doesn’t work like that. Football is an unpredictable game. End of season games are perhaps even more unpredictable. Anything can still happen. COYI!