Richard Bennett

Will more of the summer signings make the starting eleven when West Ham travel to Selhurst Park this weekend?

Collins English Dictionary – “Inevitable” (adjective) – unavoidable, sure to happen, so regular as to be predictable, inescapable, certain, sure, fated, destined.

Take your pick. There were three things that many thought were inevitable in our first game of the season at home to Aston Villa last Saturday. Firstly, we would lose. I was optimistic prior to the game and hoped for a win as always, but past performances of the first game of a Premier League season already had us well clear at the top of the table for having zero points from the opener. It has happened so regularly as to be predictable.

Secondly, Duran might score the winning goal. As I wrote last week prior to the Villa game – “We’ve already had one Duran score against us this season (for Celta Vigo), let’s hope that Villa’s Colombian Duran doesn’t do the same on Saturday after all the early transfer window shenanigans”. When he came on (like many others) I just had the feeling … His cameo certainly showed the type of player we missed out on by not meeting Villa’s demands early in the transfer window.

Thirdly, that Paqueta would be booked. You could have bet on it – I wonder how many did? He was on the very edge of receiving a second yellow card too.

I was disappointed (I suspect not the only one) when the starting line-up was revealed. I hoped for Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Fullkrug and Summerville to be in the starting eleven in place of Coufal, Mavropanos, Antonio and Soucek but the manager thought otherwise (that’s his prerogative – he knows how ready the players are; he stands or falls by his decisions). To be fair I thought Mavropanos had a decent game but I wasn’t impressed with the other three that I had hoped would be on the bench.

So be it. Whilst not a massive fan of figures, the statistics of the game showed that we were virtually on a par with our (Champions League qualified) visitors in shots (14-15), shots on target (3-3), possession (51%-49%), passes (400-395), and pass accuracy (84%-84%). Considering Villa’s dominance in the first 25 minutes where they could have scored more than one it does show how we did improve as the game went on. I could certainly see why the manager wanted to buy Kilman who I thought was very impressive. Of West Ham players he had the most touches (82), passes completed (58), carries (55), clearances (7), interceptions (2), and blocks (2) whilst also being second with progressive passes (5), ball recoveries (5) and tackles won (2).

Despite the statistics Villa deserved to win, possibly because of superior tactics. They recognised that Coufal was perhaps the weak link, pushed their midfield attackers forward centrally to force our full backs narrow, and then used Digne and latterly Maatsen to exploit the width on their left (our right). Their winning goal was an excellent team move that Duran finished with a low shot straight through Areola. Their first goal was partly Antonio losing his man and Areola not commanding the goal area as perhaps he should.

Kudus stood out as our best player but to me he is not ideally suited to playing on the left. He’s so talented he could play in any forward position I reckon but I’d like to see him in the middle of the 3 behind the main striker (number 10 role). Summerville is perfect for the left side role to complement Bowen on the right.

Onwards and upwards (hopefully) we visit Palace this weekend who share an equal position in the inaugural league table with us, having lost their opener 2-1 at Brentford. I watched that game and thought that they were unlucky to lose. Eze’s superb free kick was disallowed (wrongly the referee bravely admitted afterwards) and Brentford went down the other end almost immediately went ahead with a free flowing move which was finished well by Mbuemo.

Palace equalised early in the second half and began to dominate coming close to going ahead. Wharton was impressive, (surprisingly to me he was an unused member of the England squad in the Euros) and was running the game but (surprisingly to me again) was withdrawn with 15 minutes to go. Co-incidentally (or not?) Brentford notched the winner a couple of minutes later. Palace should have capitalised when they were dominating and came close to an equaliser but Brentford held on for what I thought was an unexpected and unlikely victory.

Guehi, widely regarded as one of the best centre backs around, played well at the heart of the Palace defence throughout but is the subject of transfer speculation. I wonder if he will still be there by the time of our visit. They do have some outstanding players. In addition to Guehi, Eze always looks impressive to me, Wharton likes to control the midfield and I think will develop into an excellent player, and Mateta is a dangerous striker. Olise left for Bayern Munich in the summer so he won’t trouble us any more.

Palace are one of those teams against whom we have a superior record in head-to- head encounters in history but in recent times we have not been dominant – in fact we have only beaten them twice in the last eleven meetings. Our last four visits to Selhurst Park have been goal feasts with 24 goals scored in those games. In January 2021 we beat them 3-2, repeating the score the following January. Then in April 2023 we lost the game 4-3 and then just a few months ago last April (2024) we were comprehensively beaten (slaughtered really!) 5-2.

One of my favourite memories of visiting Selhurst Park was a 3-0 victory there in October 1971 when Ade Coker, making his debut scored one of the goals with Clyde Best and Billy Bonds netting the others. Conversely, one of my least favourite memories of playing Palace was the trip to Cardiff for the Play-Off final in 2004 when a goal from Neil Shipperley beat us. The journey back was slow and painful.

Two great goals to remember in games against Palace – Payet’s magnificent free kick in our final season at Upton Park in a game that ended 2-2. Definitely one of the great free kicks. Also Andy Carroll’s stunning overhead kick the following season (our first at the London Stadium) in a 3-0 victory.

Like ourselves Palace will want to bounce back quickly from the opening day defeat. They ended last season winning five of their last six games including victories over Newcastle, Manchester United and Aston Villa scoring 20 goals in that run-in. They will be disappointed that they didn’t hit the ground running this time.

My hope is that with another week for the new players to become accustomed to their new surroundings and their new colleagues more of them will be in the starting eleven this weekend, especially Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Summerville and Fullkrug.

Here We Go Again – Season 67 as a West Ham Fan begins with a 5.30 kick off on Saturday for the visit of Aston Villa

It all began for me on Saturday 23^rd August 1958. 1958-59 was the first football season I remember. West Ham had just been promoted from the second division and I believe this was the first time back in the top-flight since the 1930s. After 6 games we were on top with a win and a draw against the champions from the previous season Wolves and a win against runners up Manchester United. It was a successful campaign finishing sixth, a feat we have only bettered twice since.

This season will be my 67^th as a fan and I’m looking forward just as much as ever to see what it will bring. We were warned to be careful what we wished for but I am hoping for a more enterprising brand of football than that we have witnessed in the last couple of years. The appointment of a head coach who had been in charge at Seville, Real Madrid and the Spanish national team was not especially welcomed by many but I am happy to wait and see. I hope that he can deliver a more progressive style of football than his predecessor. I read some statistics (which I have not verified) which suggested that Moyes has a better goals scored per game record than Lopetegui, but concedes more goals per game on average than our new Spanish boss. Whatever, it was time for something different.

The recruitment in the close season after a sluggish start has picked up in the past couple of weeks (with eight new recruits at the time of writing and perhaps one or two more to come if some existing players can be moved on) and on paper it would appear we have a much better, bigger, (younger? I’m not sure) and more balanced squad than the previous manager had left. Tim Steidten would seem to have done a superb job bringing in the likes of the Championship player of last season, an Argentinian World Cup winner, a current German international centre forward, a highly rated French international centre back, and the head coach’s number 1 pick from Wolves into the squad. Guilherme has also arrived from Brazil with a big reputation (and price tag considering his experience) but he would appear to be one for the future, we shall see.

All the new recruits have joined us without the prospect of European competition this season. The lack of the Thursday / Sunday fixtures should however be an advantage in one respect though given the reduced number of games to play – our record in Sunday games (partly due I suspect due to the small size of the squad) was poor last time. Ten Thursday games in Europe were followed by just two wins on the following Sunday. Perhaps with a fresher and bigger squad we can have a better tilt at the domestic cup competitions than of late.

Of course, this is on paper (and as Brian Clough and others have said the game is not played on paper). It remains to be seen how quickly the new boss can integrate the players into a cohesive unit. Many fans writing on social media are perhaps going a little overboard expecting a challenge for Champions League places but I believe that this may be a little premature. It would be great of course but it is likely to take time for the team to produce consistent results with so many new faces at once.

I am especially excited by Summerville who looked superb when I watched Leeds games on TV last season. He should hopefully provide the balance on the left that has been missing. With Bowen on the right and Kudus perhaps in a central ‘number 10’ role behind a goalscoring centre forward then our attacking threat should be potent and balanced. We have a number of alternatives in midfield – let’s hope that Paqueta can show his skills and best form alongside whoever plays there, probably Rodriguez to begin with while Alvarez is out. Unlike many fans (it would appear) I am a fan of JWP but he is likely to struggle to make the starting eleven such is the depth of the squad in the middle. For the times he does get onto the pitch I hope he rediscovers his free kick shots on goal speciality.

The central defence looks more solid than before with Kilman and the highly rated Todibo, and Wan-Bissaka should hopefully be an upgrade on Coufal, certainly in a defensive sense where he is highly regarded especially in one-on-one situations facing attacking wingers. Hopefully as a result we can improve considerably on our poor goals conceded record – the worst in the Premier League after the three relegated clubs. 74 was the biggest number we have ever conceded in the Premier League and the most ever since 1966-67! I’ve seen last season’s defence described as Swiss cheese – very apt.

The club were hoping that Zouma, last season’s strange choice as captain, could be offloaded to Saudi Arabia saving around £7million in wages. His legs seemed to have gone some time ago and it was no surprise when he ironically failed the CAT scan!

The squad as a whole should give us a much stronger bench than Moyes’ thin numbers could ever achieve, and I wondered if any of the promising youngsters would find their way into it. There were high hopes for three or four of them to do so, but with the strength in depth that we are likely to have it seems that there may be loans to lower league clubs to ensure that they gain experience that they would not have if they stayed this season.

In his relatively short time at the club the new head coach has completely managed to revamp the team from front to back with just days to spare before the new campaign gets underway. A big improvement on previous campaigns where late arrivals in the transfer window after the season had already begun was the order of the day. Nevertheless not a lot of time for the players to gel as a team and it may take a while before we see the best of the new recruits.

Where will we finish? Last season we were ninth so with the changes and investment we’ve got to hope for an improvement. Seventh or eighth perhaps or even better pushing for a place in Europe the following season. And wouldn’t it be great to have long runs in both the League and FA Cups with perhaps a trip to Wembley in one or the other (or both!)?

The season may well turn out to be a transitional one but I’m hoping for visible progress, a desire to retain the ball and not give it away so cheaply, and football that is better to watch than it has been for the past couple of years. I fear that if it takes too long for the team to adapt to Lopetegui’s methods then the fans will get restless. We’ve got to be patient and allow some time for it all to come together.

Aston Villa, newly qualified for the Champions League, will be a stiff test for the first game. We’ve already had one Duran score against us this season (for Celta Vigo), let’s hope that Villa’s Colombian Duran doesn’t do the same on Saturday after all the early transfer window shenanigans! Some fans have complained about our pre-season performances and results but I seem to recall that we had a poor lead into the 1985-86 season where we achieved our best ever finish. Conversely in the Avram Grant year the pre-season went quite well. It’s not always a good indicator of what is to follow, especially this year with the late returners from international football and also the late transfer incomings. Aston Villa have also lost a number of games pre-season too by the way.

So here we go again. My prediction for the starting line-up: Areola, Wan-Bissaka, Kilman, Todibo, Emerson; Rodriguez, Paqueta: Bowen, Kudus, Summerville: Fullkrug. That would mean just five of last year’s regulars added to six newcomers.

That leaves a bench to be chosen from the following: Fabianski, Coufal, Aguerd, Mavropanos, Cresswell, Irving, Soucek, JWP, Guilherme, Ings, Antonio, Cornet plus any of our promising youngsters who haven’t been loaned out. Hopefully I haven’t forgotten anyone. I’m not used to a full squad!

The new head coach may have other ideas, but whatever team is selected I’m excited and looking forward to season 67 as much as my first back in 1958. Who knows what we have in store? I’ll start this year’s score forecasts with a 2-1 win.

West Ham visit the Etihad Stadium this weekend, but it will take a miraculous turnaround in form and recent history of the fixture to deprive Manchester City of their fourth title in a row.

It was back in early March as the season approached the three-quarter mark when I tried to assess our chances of finishing in the top seven which would probably give us the opportunity to qualify for Europe next season via our finishing league position. At that time I looked at the teams who were in 6^th to 11^th, and they were as follows (all had eleven games remaining apart from Chelsea with twelve)

6. Manchester United 44 points (27 games)
7. West Ham 42 points (27)
8. Newcastle 40 points (27)
9. Brighton 39 points (27)
10. Wolves 38 points (27)
11. Chelsea 36 points (26)

I looked at the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the position in the league table of their remaining opponents at that time. The degree of difficulty factor suggested that Newcastle had the easiest run-in with the average positions of opponents as follows: Newcastle 12.2, Manchester United 11.7, Chelsea 10.6, Wolves 10.0, West Ham 9.5, Brighton 9.0.

I then predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, whether or not the remaining games were home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other. This gave me a prediction of the final standings:

6. Manchester United – 61 points
7. Newcastle – 57 points
8. West Ham – 57 points
9. Wolves – 55 points
10. Chelsea – 54 points
11. Brighton 51 points

Bookmakers at that time had Manchester United and Newcastle finishing sixth and seventh, Brighton and Chelsea above us in eighth and ninth with West Ham just scraping into the top half in tenth. It was just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling was that we’d be fortunate to do as well as this, I wrote that perhaps tenth was just about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors.

With the final games to play on Sunday, 6^th downwards reads as follows:

6. Chelsea – 60 points (H v Bournemouth)
7. Newcastle – 57 points (A v Brentford)
8. Manchester United – 57 points (A v Brighton)
9. West Ham – 52 points (A v Manchester City)
10. Brighton – 48 points (H v Manchester United)
11. Bournemouth – 48 points (A v Chelsea)
12. Crystal Palace – 46 points (H v Aston Villa)
13. Wolves – 46 points (A v Liverpool)

My original thought that 57 points might just be enough for 7^th was just a little short of the mark. Chelsea have finished the season strongly, and Newcastle have done well since the turnaround in their game against us, but other contenders such as Manchester United, Wolves, Brighton and ourselves have been inconsistent. After a poor start to the season Bournemouth have improved considerably, and Crystal Palace are second only to Manchester City on recent form with 16 points from their last six games, but their improvement was much too late.

We have 52 points and I will be very happy but massively surprised if we add to that in the final game. We are five points shy of my prediction; those five points were lost in two home games that I was hoping we would win, against Burnley where we drew 2-2 and Fulham where we went down 2-0. Other than that I would have been spot on. We might have even exceeded the 57 point mark had we held on to our 3-1 lead in Newcastle.

But it was not to be and our poor record in the latter half of the season has let us down after entering 2024 in sixth place. We are guaranteed to finish in ninth place (exactly halfway between my forecast and my gut feeling) whatever the outcome this weekend. We are eighth when it comes to scoring goals, but in the bottom four when it comes to conceding them, and therein lies the main problem.

In our articles throughout the season, particularly in the last few months, we have discussed what we believed were the shortcomings of the manager, but this will be his last game and we must now await was lies ahead in the summer and beyond.

Social media articles have already started the Lopetegui in / out debate before he has already been officially announced as the new ‘head coach’! The two sides have been debating whether or not he will lift us off our seats with enterprising, entertaining, attacking football? Will he be far removed from what we have witnessed in the past four years? How good is his record? To me on paper it looks very sound, but he has had some good teams / players to work with (Porto, Spain, Real Madrid, Sevilla). His overall record as a manager shows a 57% win rate from over 400 games.

Statistically, David Moyes record (in a West Ham context) is very sound too, but results in the last season and a half have been less than convincing apart from the European adventure and trophy. The football played in so many games has not been good enough, tactically he has been left wanting frequently, and we have suffered a number of heavy (embarrassing) defeats.

I won’t enter the debate on the new head coach until he is here and will wait to see what happens in the next few months. He certainly has a big job to do in overhauling the squad with many out of contract and ageing players. David Moyes apparently likes working with small squads and it certainly caught up with him in the end.

I have been thinking about some of the players that we’ve sold or sent out on loan in the last year. Pablo Fornals was a Spanish international when he came to us, did a reasonable if unspectacular job here, and now at Real Betis is creating more chances than virtually everyone in the Spanish league. Thilo Kehrer, a German international, never seemed to be at his best here, yet just take a look at his spectacular statistics at Monaco. Said Benrahma, superb for Brentford, comes to us, clearly not fancied by the manager, confidence disappears, is now turning it on at Lyons. Flynn Downes, always looked a decent player to me when given an opportunity here, but allowed out on loan to Southampton, where Russell Martin described him as their key player in the push for promotion. Freddie Potts, on loan at Wycombe, their player of the year. Perhaps one or more of these could have been more than useful in the squad in the disappointing second half of the season where a European place beckoned at the turn of the year but faded in 2024. But no we turned to Kalvin Phillips, a seasoned England international but way off the pace sitting on the Manchester City bench who has cost us millions. That turned out well, didn’t it?

Several positions need strengthening but for me a key priority is at the back, in particular central defence where for so long we have lacked pace to deal with the speed of Premier League attackers. Will Paqueta stay? Personally, I’m not bothered either way. He has undoubted talents but application can be lacking at times, and I’d hope that the £85million could be spent as wisely as it was when Declan Rice left a year ago with Kudus, Alvarez and JWP, all of whom I believe can offer much in the future if used in the right way, in the right positions, alongside Hammer of the Year Jarrod Bowen.

For some time now our Academy and youth teams have produced outstanding results, but this has not been reflected in players coming through into the First Team squad. There are high hopes for George Earthy and I would hope others too can get opportunities in the squad. Hopefully the new head coach will be able to bring on the youngsters more than has happened in recent times.

We’ve been known to spoil a Manchester party in the past but it is hard to imagine us halting the City celebrations this time around. At the end of the game at Tottenham they were celebrating as if the title was already theirs with just little old West Ham with the fragile defence to come in the final game. They were preparing their abacuses to take to the game.

Unlike a number of social media posts I’ve read where supposed West Ham fans want us to lose to deprive Arsenal of the title, because of their dislike or hatred of Arsenal and the Rice factor, I am in the opposite camp. You are entitled to your opinion but I hold an entirely different view. I may dislike some teams, but hate? No.

I would never ever want us to lose a game to influence what happens elsewhere. To any of you who want us to lose why not consider the bigger picture? If we did manage to hold or even (very unlikely) beat Manchester City then just think how brassed off Tottenham fans will be that Arsenal have won the title and West Ham were largely responsible for that happening. Surely you dislike Tottenham even more than Arsenal?

I always want us to win every game we play. I have no problems with Declan Rice and wish him well – he did a great job in a West Ham shirt. Personally I’d be more than happy if the Manchester City domination of the Premier League title was broken.

But realistically it would take a miracle. But miracles do happen very occasionally. Bookmakers have City at 1/12 to win the game (and the title) with West Ham at 20/1 and the draw at 11/1.

An interesting summer lies ahead.

The penultimate game of the season for West Ham – the last chance to pick up any points?

As we go into the penultimate game of the season at home to Luton let’s have a look back to see how we have done against all our opponents (so far):

Luton and Manchester City have a ‘game in hand’.
Wolves are the only team that we have done the double over, although Luton could join them.
Fulham have been our most ‘formidable’ opponent, although Manchester City could ‘overtake’ them if they beat us 6-0 in the final game of the season.
Fulham have been the only team that we have failed to score against.
We have not kept a clean sheet against any of our 19 opponents.
Teams against whom we have the upper hand (points + goal difference) – Wolves, Sheffield United, Brighton, Burnley, Tottenham, Brentford, Everton, Luton (so far)
Teams who have had the upper hand over us (points + goal difference) – Fulham, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest.
We are ‘all square’ with Bournemouth.
With 2 games to go we are averaging 1.56 goals per game scored, 1.94 goals against.
We are currently 9^th in the table (points), and 8^th in terms of goals scored (56).
Only the bottom 3 teams have conceded more goals than us; 70 goals against is equal to the most goals that we have conceded in a season in the Premier League ever (in 28 seasons). We let in 70 in 2010/11 (the Avram Grant relegation season) so just one more goal conceded in the final two games would make this the worst season ever in this respect.
Our best season for fewest goals conceded in the Premier League was in 2008/9 when Gianfranco Zola was the manager.
With 2 games to go we have scored 56 goals – that is currently our 4^th highest in a Premier League season – the most came in 2015/16 (Bilic) 65, 2020/21 (Moyes) 62, 2021/22 (Moyes) 60, 1997/98 (Redknapp) 56.
In the first half of this season we played 19 games, won 10, drew 3, lost 6, goals for 33, goals against 30, points 33.
Since then – played 17 games, won 3, drew 7, lost 7, goals for 23, goals against 40, points 16.

Three games to go as West Ham travel to Stamford Bridge, hoping for an unlikely win.

But (clutching at straws) playing them on a Sunday and on May 5th may not be the worst time to go there!

Last season was a great one in Europe and a poor one on the domestic front. A first trophy for 43 years whilst at the same time battling amongst the teams at the foot of the table. We certainly weren’t going to get into Europe via a league position. We were in the bottom three with 15 games of the season remaining but pulled away relatively comfortably with six wins and three draws (21 points) to finish in 14^th place on 40 points.

This season has been almost the reverse. At the halfway stage which coincided with the end of 2023 we had won ten, drawn three, and lost just six games. We had 33 points from the 19 games, just seven short of last season’s total. We had scored 33 and conceded 30. Despite our football being less than convincing on a number of occasions the results were good and we sat in sixth place in the table and well placed for another tilt at Europe next season. In my first article of 2024 I speculated (hoped) that similar results in the second half of the season would see us finish on 66 points which would be a record total in the Premier League era with 66 goals scored (another record). 60 goals conceded wouldn’t be a record but would rank in the top half dozen of goals conceded in our 28 years of Premier League football.

So with just three games of the season to go where are we? Certainly not close to emulating the first half of the season. Incredibly we are still in the top half of the table (9^th) despite in the last 16 games (as Geoff pointed out in his article this week) moving on to just 49 points, that is 16 points from 16 games. If we’d achieved a point a game over the whole season we’d now have 35, which, not quite relegation form would see us languishing in 16^th, even worse than in the last campaign. So it’s just as well we collected as many points as we did up to the end of 2023.

Even now with three games left, three wins would see us bump our points total up to 58 which would be our third best ever in the Premier League. But with away games at Chelsea and Manchester City and a home game against Luton that’s not going to happen is it? Chelsea have been rejuvenated recently despite a thrashing at Arsenal, and it is hard to see us getting anything there. Luton will be fighting for their lives and Manchester City on the last day will be quite a challenge. Nevertheless as professional footballers three wins to end the season has got to be the aim. Stranger things have happened? Perhaps not.

Let me give you some hope for the Chelsea game by looking back at our record of games played on May 5^th in my lifetime. None of our three FA Cup final wins came on this date. Our 3-2 win over Preston in 1964 was on May 2^nd, it was May 3^rd when we beat Fulham 2-0 in 1975, and May 10^th when we beat Arsenal 1-0 in 1980. On May 5^th1976 we lost 4-2 in the Cup Winners Cup Final to Anderlecht, on May 5^th 1979 we lost 1-0 to Blackburn, on this date in 1984 we lost 1-0 to Aston Villa and in our record breaking season on May 5^th 1986 we lost 3-1 at Everton to drop from 2^nd to 3^rd as the final position that season.

I haven’t convinced you yet have I? Well in the eight other games played on May 5^th in history we haven’t lost any of them, in fact the 1986 defeat at Everton was the last time we went down on this date. In 1980 in a Division 2 game we beat Charlton 4-1, and in 1990 Wolves were put to the sword 4-0 – remember this for Liam Brady’s final game including the magnificent goal he scored.

Julian Dicks scored in our 1-1 draw with Sheffield Wednesday in 1996, and in 1998 we drew 3-3 with Palace, a game where Manny Omoyinmi (remember him?) scored two goals, the only two goals he ever scored for us. He is best remembered for coming on as a substitute in our quarter final League Cup win over Aston Villa in 2000, although he had already played in the competition when out at Gillingham on loan. The Villa game had to be replayed as we had used an ineligible player, Harry was fuming, and sent Omoyinmi out on loan to Scunthorpe and Barnet – he never played for us again.

Four games in the twenty-first century on 5^th May have all resulted in victories. In 2001 Cole, Di Canio and Kanoute were the scorers in a 3-0 win over Southampton and in 2007 (the Great Escape year) we won 3-1 against Bolton in the penultimate game of the season with Tevez scoring twice and Noble with the goals. In 2017 a Lanzini goal was enough for a win over Tottenham at the London Stadium and the following year Joao Mario and Noble were the scorers in a 2-0 win at Leicester.

And did you know that Chelsea are as bad at playing on Sundays as we are? They’ve only won once in their last 13 attempts in Sunday games.

How many famous recent wins at Stamford Bridge can you remember? With David Martin in goal we held on for a 1-0 win in November 2019 with a goal from Cresswell (the only West Ham win in the last 17 games at Chelsea), a 3-2 victory in 2002 with two goals from Di Canio and one from Defoe, a Paul Kitson goal in a 1-0 win in 1999, Dicks and (Danny) Williamson goals in a 2-1 win in 1996, Martin Allen and Moncur in a 2-1 win in 1994, and for the best one of all are you old enough to remember the great win there in the famous 1985/86 season when we thrashed them 4-0 (McAvennie, Devonshire and Cottee 2)? Just six victories at Stamford Bridge in the last 40 plus years.

It would be great to record another win but can it happen? As you would expect the bookmakers have Chelsea odds on to win the game – we are at 15/4, which is exactly the odds they gave us to draw at home to Liverpool last week!

I won’t enter the Moyes debate today – Geoff covered that in this week’s article. My choice would be McKenna from Ipswich. It won’t happen of course. Lopetegui heads the betting with bookmakers, closely followed by Potter, Fonseca and Carrick. Three unlikely wins to end the season, qualification for Europe, and Moyes could stay! Surely not!

West Ham entertain Liverpool with just four games to go until the end of the season.

You can just imagine the thoughts of the TV people who select the games to be shown on domestic television sitting down to decide what to show this weekend. They would obviously be looking towards the top of the Premier League as there is not too much excitement when assessing the relegation struggle at the foot of the table. The points deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest threw those clubs into the mix, but surely it’s hard to see beyond last year’s promoted sides from the Championship making a swift return (although Forest are still involved), unless there are any other surprise points deductions. Manchester City perhaps??

So let’s look at the top 3. Manchester City at Brighton on Thursday night meant that their game at Forest was one destined for Sunday as was the North London derby. That meant the three games to be selected for Saturday TV had to include Liverpool (who were well placed to win the title when the schedules were drawn up) visiting the London Stadium to face West Ham who, at the time (in theory) were well placed to be pushing for a European place themselves via their league position.

But what has happened? Liverpool, favourites in the Europa League lost their invincibility at Anfield collapsing to Atalanta, effectively putting them out of the competition, and then followed this on the Sunday with a defeat at home to Crystal Palace. This week’s loss in the Merseyside derby has put them out of the title race. Palace, Brentford and Everton (14^th, 15^th, 16^th) have all collected more points in their last five games than Liverpool, that’s how poor they have been in recent games.

Unless Arsenal and Manchester City both have a nightmare of a time in their remaining games (which is unlikely to happen) then Liverpool’s chances of the title are over. They are both saying to Liverpool catch us if you can. It won’t happen. Following City’s comprehensive demolition of Brighton on Thursday evening they are now in pole position to claim the title for a fourth successive season. They always seem to come on strongly at the end of the season. That’s what a big squad can help with. David Moyes prefers small squads and would probably prefer an even smaller one than he has got.

West Ham, who reached the halfway point in the league in sixth place with a win at Arsenal at the end of December, are incredibly still in contention to finish seventh; we are eighth just two points behind Newcastle. When I say in contention I mean mathematically of course; in reality it would need a miracle with the closing pack with games in hand and our remaining fixtures and form.

Liverpool, Chelsea, Luton and Manchester City are the opponents in the final four games. Liverpool are having a disastrous end to the season seemingly unable to give Klopp the farewell he wanted, Chelsea were thrashed 5-0 by Arsenal this week, and Luton have won just one of their last thirteen league games. That still doesn’t give me any confidence for our run-in. In 2024 we have won just four times in twenty-one attempts. Three wins in fifteen league games (Brentford, Everton and Wolves), with the other win against Freiburg at home in the Europa League.

No doubt on TV they will be building Saturday’s game up as two teams with a lot to play for (as they always do) when in reality they haven’t. It’s now just a two horse race to be Premier League champions, so Liverpool have nothing really other than a vain hope that Arsenal and Manchester City will both falter. One might perhaps but two of them? And what have we got to play for? Each incremental position in the final league table is worth £2.2 million so that’s about all really.

As the players were leaving the pitch last weekend in South London after yet another poor performance the Palace anthem Glad All Over by the Dave Clark Five rang out. I bought the single to help it to the number one spot in the UK charts where it took over from the Beatles I Wanna Hold Your Hand in January 1964, more than 60 years ago now. Any lingering thoughts of a return to Europe next season are all over and surely it’s all over for our manager too. Everybody knows it’s just bits and pieces of the season left for us now.

There have just been too many embarrassing games in 2023/24. The 4-1 defeat at Villa was poor, but the 5-0 loss at Fulham topped that (7-0 aggregate in two games against Fulham!). What about the tame surrender to Liverpool in the League Cup? Or exit from the FA Cup to mediocre Championship side Bristol City? Eleven goals conceded without reply in a three game spell in February to Manchester United, Arsenal (6-0 on our ground!), and Forest! The 5-2 thrashing at Palace to follow the home defeat to Fulham. For a manager who likes to believe he creates teams that are hard to play against the 63 goals conceded is only ‘bettered’ by the three teams in the relegation places.

I find it amusing to read the various names being suggested on social media as to the manager who will be taking over from David Moyes in the summer. The delay in confirming his departure (or otherwise) is not helpful. No decision is apparently going to be made until after the final game of the season at Manchester City. Surely it would be beneficial for the situation to be made clear before then? Compare this with Liverpool who knew Klopp was going some time ago – I reckon they are well on their way to announcing who will be taking over the vacant slot – it’s sure to be announced before we get our act together. If we win our final games will Moyes be offered a new contract? Are they really waiting for that? Surely not! But I guess nothing should surprise us with the hierarchy at West Ham.

So far there have been more names put forward than there usually are for players we are interested in. Whoever it turns out to be has a massive rebuilding job taking over with so many out of contract this summer, an ageing squad (almost the oldest in the Premier League) especially in defence where there is a lack of mobility to cope with pacy attackers.

What chance a West Ham win in this weekend’s game? It will be our ninth league game at the London Stadium in 2024. How many of the previous eight have we won? Just one – against Brentford. So current home form does not bode well. Let’s look back at previous games against Liverpool. Going right back to 1901 we have faced them 149 times and won just 29. Restricting the record to the 21^st century we have won 7 out of 45 encounters and claimed victory just once in the last 16 fixtures. That sole win came in November 2021, the season when we came seventh, and Liverpool were aiming for the quadruple. They had won the League Cup and FA Cup but were pipped by one point by Manchester City in the Premier League and lost in the Champions League final to Real Madrid.

We won the game 3-2. Do you remember the goals? A Declan Rice corner went straight in, although it was credited as an Allison own goal – he claimed he was impeded but the goal stood. Alexander-Arnold equalised from a free kick before a driving run from Bowen sent Fornals through for a low left-footed shot that Allison got his hand to but couldn’t prevent the goal. We went 3-1 ahead when Zouma headed in a corner from beyond the far post. But in typical West Ham style we conceded a second goal a few minutes from the end from Origi, setting up a tense finish, and in the dying seconds Mane had an open goal but headed wide when he should have scored.

Before then you have to go back to the 2015-16 season when we met Liverpool four times, winning three of them and drawing the other. A 3-0 win at Anfield in August (Lanzini, Noble, Sakho) when Brendan Rogers was in charge was followed by completion of the league double the following January when Antonio and Carroll scored in a 2-0 victory at Upton Park. By then Klopp had taken over and we met them in the FA Cup drawing 0-0 at Anfield before winning the replay 2-1 at home with a goal from Antonio, and then in the 120^th minute in extra time Ogbonna headed the winner.

We have done the double over Liverpool twice before. Once was in the 1920s which I don’t remember, but in our cup winning season of 1963/64 Hurst and Peters scored at Anfield in a 2-1 win, and I remember Johnny Byrne scoring the only goal of the game in the return at Upton Park. Liverpool finished as champions that season so to take maximum points off them was quite something. We finished 14^th. We were just so inconsistent then as we also beat Manchester United, Everton and Tottenham (who finished 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th) in that campaign yet we failed to beat Ipswich and Bolton who finished in the bottom two places and were relegated.

The 2015 win at Anfield is famous in that it was the first time we had won a game on their ground since 1963! Our home record is a little better, but they have still beaten us here more times than we have defeated them. Form and history both suggest that we can’t win this game. Bookmakers agree with odds of around 9/2 on a West Ham win. Liverpool are 4/9 and the draw is 15/4. What are the chances of an upset?

The curse of Thursday / Sunday fixtures strikes once again and leaves West Ham with only a slim chance of qualifying for European competition next season.

Defeat in Leverkusen followed by a disappointing loss to Fulham at the London Stadium makes both routes to qualification increasingly problematic.

A few weeks have passed since I made a prediction that we would need 57 points this season to stand any chance of qualifying for European football next season via our league position. We went into last Sunday’s game at home to mid-table Fulham, who in theory don’t have a lot to play for (neither European qualification nor relegation were an issue), still with a reasonable chance of reaching that total. The fortunate win at Wolves meant we were on 48 points needing a further nine to get there. The other teams in contention have not exactly been pulling up trees, with perhaps the pick of the contenders being Newcastle who have suddenly burst into life again after the late comeback against us.

All that would be needed would be three victories from the final six games to get there. Nothing is easy as far as the Premier League and West Ham are concerned but on paper at least we had three winnable games on paper, at home to Fulham and Luton and a trip to Crystal Palace.

But once again the limitations of the squad were exposed as always seems to happen with the Thursday / Sunday fixtures. An away trip to Germany on Thursday night meant not arriving home until Friday morning (the early hours perhaps?) and played havoc with our preparation for a 2 o’clock Sunday game. That’s one of the excuses anyway. The Thursday / Sunday curse hit Liverpool too when with two defeats they perhaps have lost out in two competitions in the space of just four days.

We had the chance to move on to 51 points and sixth in the table with a win but we well and truly fluffed the opportunity with yet another game where we constantly gave the ball away, allowed the opposition freedom to create chance after chance and couldn’t hit the proverbial barn door or even find the target when we should perhaps have scored. The early chance that fell to Antonio was straightforward and it may have been a different game had he put the ball in the net as he should have done.

For the second time in two games Fabianski was probably our man of the match which, although understandable in an away game to the German champions, was very disappointing in a game at the London Stadium facing Fulham.

Once again Paqueta was booked (no surprise there), and impressive player that he is in many ways, he is also a liability far more times than you’d want to see in a player of his quality.

The swing-o-meter once again swung even further in the direction of the Moyes Out campaign. The ‘Careful what you wish for’ (Moyes In) supporters laid the blame on the players and defended the manager who said he was “gutted” with the missed opportunity to move into sixth.

A few weeks ago I gave my predictions for the final standings (below), and I have added what would now be needed to reach those points in the remaining games:

6. Manchester United – 61 points (11 points from 6 games)
7. Newcastle – 57 points (7 points from 6 games)
8. West Ham – 57 points (9 points from 5 games)
9. Wolves – 55 points (12 points from 6 games)
10. Chelsea – 54 points (7 points from 7 games)
11. Brighton – 51 points (7 points from 6 games)

How different it might have been had we held on to our 3-1 advantage in Newcastle and beaten Fulham! We would now be just three points shy of the target and big favourites for a return to the Europa League next season. But that’s what being a West Ham supporter is all about. We can still get there of course but it would take three wins from the games against Palace, Luton, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City. Do you think that will happen? It would be great but, no, I can’t see it.

At the time I admitted wearing my optimistic hat and added that my gut feeling was that we would be fortunate to do as well as eighth, and that perhaps tenth was about right. It’s closing up between Newcastle (6^th with 50 points) and Bournemouth (13^th with 42 points). More performances like the Fulham one and who knows what our final position will be? After Monday night Chelsea are now just a point below us with two games in hand so we could soon be down to ninth.

So now our season realistically comes down to overturning a two-goal deficit against unbeaten German champions Bayer Leverkusen who finally managed to shed their ‘Neverkusen’ nickname by clinching the Bundesliga with games to spare, 16 points clear of Bayern Munich. Seeing how difficult Arsenal found it against Munich showed what a seemingly impossible task we would have against Leverkusen.

Three of my favourite West Ham games have been comebacks in Europe. The game against Sevilla a couple of years ago was one, but for my all-time favourites I have to go back to the European Cup Winners Cup campaign in 1975-76. In the quarter final we found ourselves 4-0 down at half time in the first (away) leg to Den Haag (Netherlands) and finished the game losing 4-2. The game at Upton Park a fortnight later was a thriller and we went through to the semi-final (on the away goals rule) with a 3-1 win. The goals that day came from Billy Bonds with a penalty, Frank Lampard and Alan Taylor.

My favourite ever West Ham game came in the semi final when we overcame a 2-1 deficit to Eintracht Frankfurt from the first leg in Germany to win 3-1 at Upton Park in the pouring rain. Trevor Brooking was brilliant that night scoring two goals in an imperious display and for good measure Keith Robson hit a screamer too.

The chances of overcoming Bayer Leverkusen in similar fashion would seem remote given the first leg result and the current form of both teams. It would take a miracle is one phrase I’ve seen, and perhaps that is about right. We have enjoyed a number of special European nights and this would be the greatest yet if it were to happen.

The Germans are little more than even money to lift the trophy in Dublin on 22^nd May. Even Liverpool who have history in coming back from a three goal deficit in Europe have only a remote chance of progressing further. If you like a silly bet then the odds on a West Ham v Liverpool final are around 250/1.

The odds on us reaching the semi-final by any means (on aggregate in normal time, extra time or on penalties) are a measly 11/1. That’s not very generous is it? It would have to be on aggregate surely as Germans always win penalty shoot-outs don’t they? Here’s hoping for a miracle. COYI!

West Ham United visit Wolverhampton Wanderers – two teams in the mix for potential European qualification.

A few weeks ago when we still had 11 league games to play I enlisted the help of the Bennett Supercomputer system to predict whether or not we would finish high enough to qualify for a European place next season. It was just a bit of fun and the final conclusion was that we needed 15 points from those final 11 games to have a chance of qualifying – this left us on 57 points in eighth place – level with Newcastle on 57 but our goal difference would be inferior to theirs, and so we’d just miss out.

At that time this was the situation:

There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all have eleven games remaining apart from Chelsea with twelve. The teams from 6^th to 11^th are therefore:

6. Manchester United 44 points (27 games)
7. West Ham 42 points (27)
8. Newcastle 40 points (27)
9. Brighton 39 points (27)
10. Wolves 38 points (27)
11. Chelsea 36 points (26)

And this is how it looks now. You will see a newcomer (Bournemouth) have now entered the reckoning:

6. Manchester United 48 points (29 games)
7. West Ham 45 points (31)
8. Newcastle 44 points (30)
9. Brighton 43 points (30)
10. Wolves 42 points (30)
11. Bournemouth 41 points (30)
11. Chelsea 40 points (28)

At the time I reckoned that to get the 15 points that would give us a chance of qualification we would need to beat Burnley, Fulham and Luton, and then collect 6 points from the 6 games against Villa, Newcastle, Tottenham, Wolves, Palace and Chelsea. This could be 2 wins, 1 win and 3 draws or even (very unlikely) 6 draws. Anything more than this would be a bonus. I ruled out getting anything against Liverpool and Manchester City.

So how have we done? We only drew with Burnley, lost to Newcastle (this will be the one that we might look back upon at the end of the season I reckon), and drew with Villa and Tottenham. That leaves us needing 12 points from the last seven games that would likely be needed to reach the 57 point mark. None of the other contenders have been pulling up trees in the recent games so I still believe that 57 (as I originally forecast) could do it.

The games in question are Wolves (this weekend), Fulham, Luton, Palace, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Can we get at least 12 points from those? To reach 57 is now a tough ask after the points dropped against Burnley and Newcastle, but still possible for those of us with an optimistic disposition. Had we beaten both Burnley and Newcastle then we would now be sixth with 50 points, and in pole position for European qualification.

We have 3 home games and 4 away games remaining, we face two of the top three, one of the bottom three, two of the other contenders for 6^th and 7^th(important not to lose either of those) plus Fulham and Palace. From the remaining seven games we would need 4 wins, or 3 wins and 3 draws to get the 12 to take us to 57. That still might not be enough but would give us a fighting chance. I remain hopeful but would bet against it. I’ve got a feeling that we might just miss out. If we get within three points of qualification at the end of the campaign we’ll look back at the Newcastle game as just one example of a missed opportunity.

So that’s it – another whole article without mentioning the continuing Moyes In / Moyes Out issue that still dominates the forums. Such a shame that a lot of the writers involved can’t accept alternative opinions without resorting to nastiness and name calling. But that’s social media for you.

Can we finish sixth or seventh? What are the chances? What do you reckon?

West Ham travel to Newcastle in the early Saturday kick-off with both teams still in the mix for a European place next season.

I enjoyed Geoff’s article published yesterday as always and smiled at his made-up statistic that West Ham haven’t won away in an early Saturday kick off against a team in stripes. How can he have forgotten our Division One trip to Huddersfield on Saturday 17^th January 1925 when in an early kick off we came away with a 2-1 victory with goals from our all time leading goalscorer Vic Watson (326 goals) and Jimmy Ruffell, fourth on the all-time list (166 goals)? Only Geoff Hurst (249) and John Dick (177) were in the same league as those two when it came to scoring goals for West Ham.

I’m not making up that game – Huddersfield did wear stripes, it was a Saturday and we won the game 2-1. I’m not certain regarding the early kick off, but I’ve seen pictures of the Leeds Road ground (where they played until 1994) with floodlights being put up in 1963, and therefore assume that a mid-January kick-off in 1925 must have been early as it would have been too dark to kick off at 3pm. By the way, that game was even more remarkable in that it was Huddersfield’s only defeat in their last 27 games of the 1924-25 season when they finished up as Division One champions, the second of three consecutive top flight titles, the first club to achieve that feat.

Some famous games that I remember against today’s opponents, Newcastle, include a 5-5 draw in 1960 with five different West Ham goalscorers. They certainly knew how to score goals in those days. That season we finished 16^th (out of 22) and scored 77 goals but conceded 88!

In April 1968 just after Easter we beat them 5-0 with a Trevor Brooking hat-trick in his first season in the team, which I believe to be his only ever hat-trick in his 528 games for us. Unless of course you know different?

In a Division Two match in late March 1979 we again beat them 5-0 with three of the five goals coming from our full backs, John McDowell with two, and Frank Lampard.

I’ve written before about our 8-1 victory against them in our record-breaking season of 1985-86. The game was notable for an Alvin Martin hat-trick scored against three different goalkeepers. Glenn Roeder was playing for Newcastle on that Monday night in April 1986.

In January 2011 (in the middle of the Avram Grant season when we were relegated) we lost 5-0 at St James Park with a Leon Best hat-trick and a goal from Kevin Nolan, who came to us in the following summer and helped us to promotion the next season. It was only 13 years ago but some names of players wearing claret and blue that day (either starting or on the bench) – Tal Ben Haim, Radoslav Kovac, Frederic Piquionne, Zavon Hines, Victor Obinna, Ruud Boffin, Valon Behrami, Pablo Barrera. Do you remember all of them?

On 15^th August 2021 we won 4-2 at St James Park in an early kick off (the first game of the season?), I think Newcastle were wearing stripes, but it didn’t quite meet Geoff’s criteria as it was a Sunday not a Saturday. We came from behind twice with goals from Cresswell, Benrahma, Soucek and Antonio.

Since that game three of the four meetings have been drawn including the 2-2 draw at the London Stadium in October. The other game was an embarrassing 5-1 home defeat in April last year.

At least the international breaks are now over for another season – how I do hate how they interrupt the season! I rarely watch internationals outside tournaments as friendlies are meaningless with endless substitutions spoiling the ‘entertainment’. I made an exception this week to watch Jarrod Bowen starting and starring. Surely he will make the England squad for the Euros, as understudy to Saka on the right?

The Moyes debate continues to rumble on with fans on social media groups tearing into each other with opposing views of should he stay or should he go. If we do opt for a new manager next season I’d love to see us go for Kieran McKenna who has performed wonders at Ipswich in this season and last. After bringing them up from League One in his first season in charge, their record this season has been superb, keeping up at the top with the ‘big boys’ who received their parachute payments (Leicester, Leeds and Southampton). Ipswich have lost just five of their last 58 games playing a brand of football pleasing to the eye.

I live in Bury St Edmunds in Suffolk where Ipswich are the most supported club locally. The ‘buzz’ created in the last couple of seasons is quite something. He has first class coaching credentials as assistant to Mourinho at Manchester United and I believe he will continue to be one of the up and coming coaches / managers in the years to come. Some believe we should go for a ‘name’ such as Potter who is always banded about. McKenna for me.

Newcastle have a long injury list for this game, although some are due back. We will be under strength too with Alvarez suspended (we’ve never won a game this season when he hasn’t been playing) and Paqueta, Aguerd and Kudus are apparently being assessed or monitored. The Geordies have a relatively poor defensive record but they do know how to score goals. They are one of the teams still in the mix for a European place next season. I never feel that confident when we go up to the North-East so I won’t hold my breath for a victory to match the one on the opening day of the 2021/22 season. But I’ll forecast a high scoring draw, although perhaps not 5-5! What are the chances?

Aston Villa visit the London Stadium to face West Ham in the Claret and Blue derby

Before last week’s article I developed a programme to anticipate where West Ham would finish in this season’s Premier League final table. This week I provide an update based upon what happened last weekend, including our unfortunate two points dropped in the 2-2 draw with Burnley at the London Stadium.

There are probably six teams still in the reckoning to finish sixth or seventh in the final table and all now have ten games remaining apart from Chelsea with eleven. I have discounted the top five in the Premier League as I believe they have enough points and decent enough run-ins to maintain those places. The teams from 6^th to 11^th are now:

6. Manchester United – 47 points (28 games)
7. West Ham – 43 points (28)
8. Brighton – 42 points (28)
9. Wolves – 41 points (28)
10. Newcastle – 40 points (28)
11. Chelsea – 39 points (27)

You may recall that I considered the degree of difficulty in the remaining fixtures for each side based upon the current position in the league table of their remaining opponents. The degree of difficulty factor suggested that Newcastle have the easiest run-in.

I then took it further and predicted the results of each teams remaining games with a formula based upon fixtures remaining, categorised into teams being faced with a current position of 1-3, 4-5, 6-11, 12-17, and 18-20 given different weightings, whether or not the remaining games were home or away, and the results when the sides met earlier in the season. Additional factors included games against the top 5 teams, and games against each other (i.e. the 6 teams being considered).

Some of the results last weekend were as expected, the only ones that were not were West Ham who were expected to beat Burnley, and Newcastle who were expected to draw at Chelsea based on the criteria used. This therefore adjusts the forecast for the final standings at the end of the season which is now:

6. Manchester United – 61 points
7. Newcastle – 56 points
8. Chelsea – 56 points
9. Wolves – 55 points
10. West Ham – 55 points
11. Brighton – 51 points

Chelsea have now risen to a predicted eighth placed finish whilst West Ham have fallen to tenth. As I wrote last time, it’s just a bit of fun, and my gut feeling is that perhaps tenth is just about right. Football matches are notoriously unpredictable to forecast which stems from various factors like team dynamics, player and overall team form, European and FA Cup games to play, the Thursday / Sunday mix which is often an issue, injuries, and even unpredictable events during a game, as well as all sorts of other miscellaneous factors.

I noted this week that the Opta Supercomputer forecast is that West Ham will finish eighth on 55.47 points. (I’m not sure where we’d get the 0.47 points from!). Their programming must have some similarities to mine based on their figures. I will look back at the end of the season to compare The Bennett model versus the Opta Supercomputer at this stage to make a comparison.

This is how Opta see the Premier League ending up…

6. Manchester United – 62.41
7. Newcastle United – 58.35
8. West Ham United – 55.47
9. Chelsea – 54.84
10. Brighton & Hove Albion – 54.61

On Thursday night we gave Freiburg a bit of a thrashing which on the face of it would compare the relative merits of the Premier League versus the Bundesliga. Seventh in the Premier League were shown to be massively superior to eighth in the Bundesliga based upon this last 16 tie. This was also a significant victory for English clubs who are now on course to claim a fifth spot in next season’s Champions League.

Two additional performance places are up for grabs due to the new format in 2024-25. They will go to the countries with the best average performance in all the European competitions this season. Before Thursday night Italy were top with Germany second and England third, but our win meant that England narrowed the gap on Germany.

Coefficient Rankings:

1. Italy – 17.714 (4 teams remaining)
2. Germany – 16.357 (3 teams remaining)
3. England – 16.250 (5 teams remaining)
4. France – 14.750 (3 teams remaining)
5. Spain – 14.437 (3 teams remaining

We’ve now drawn another German side in the quarter finals and this time it will be much tougher as we face the might of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the runaway leaders in Germany who have won 21 and drawn 4 of their 25 games, being the only side in the top 5 leagues in Europe to still be unbeaten at this stage of the season.

Having said that they came mightily close to being eliminated from the competition on Thursday night when they trailed Karabakh (of Azerbaijan) 2-1 on the night and 4-3 on aggregate as the tie reached the 90^th minute of the second leg. Leverkusen then scored twice in the time that was added to ensure progression. That game surely gives us some hope in the quarter final tie doesn’t it?

Also, if England get the second spot in the ‘performance table’ and the FA Cup winners finish in the top seven, then it would appear that England would have five places in next season’s Champions League, two places in the Europa League and the team finishing eighth would take the Europa Conference League spot. All the more reason to continue to push for a high enough spot in the Premier League, apart from the kudos and the prize money on offer of course.

And what about the Kudus goal where he ran from the middle of our half, dribbled through the Freiburg team on an incredible run then clinically finished with his so-called weaker foot? That got me thinking of the best goals I’ve seen us score at the London Stadium. In no particular order it joins Payet’s amazing dribble through the Middlesbrough defence, and Andy Carroll’s wonderful volley against Crystal Palace. There are others to consider I’m sure. What ones have I missed?

Great goals that they were, none of them compare in my eyes to Martin Peters’ goal against Leicester in November 1968, Trevor Sinclair’s goal against Derby on Boxing Day 2001, or Harry Redknapp’s goal v QPR, also in November 1968 (just two weeks before Martin Peters goal).

I’ve written before about the 1968/69 season and a golden period of four consecutive and absolutely brilliant entertaining games at Upton Park in the Autumn of 1968. When we faced Sunderland on October 19^th we’d come off the back of a run of nine winless games. We ended that run thrashing Sunderland 8-0 (the game where Geoff Hurst scored six). A fortnight later in a great game we defeated QPR 4-3, which included the Redknapp goal I referred to above, and a magnificent Bobby Moore goal frequently shown on the screens at Upton Park before games. The game with the Martin Peters wonder goal came in a 4-0 win over Leicester two weeks after that. And finally move on another fortnight for a 2-1 win over Manchester City, the first scored by Geoff Hurst, a near post header from a Martin Peters cross, and the second a carbon copy but this time a near post header by Martin Peters from a Geoff Hurst cross. They could do it both ways around and in this match they did. Those were the days. Wonderful memories.

As the game today is against Aston Villa an abiding memory from fixtures against them is a penalty awarded to us in the last minute of the FA Cup quarter final in March 1980. Up stepped Ray Stewart, the perfect penalty taker when under the greatest pressure to score. He slammed it high into the net in front of the South Bank, we won the game 1-0 and went on to win the FA Cup, the last team to do so as a second-tier side. We’ve had some great penalty takers, in no particular order the best ones in my opinion were Ray Stewart, Julian Dicks, Geoff Hurst, Mark Noble, Johnny Byrne, John Bond, and Paolo Di Canio.

Aston Villa are one of those teams that we have beaten more often than been defeated by. The recent record is strongly in our favour. The last 11 meetings (since and including Boxing Day 2015) – West Ham have won six, four have been drawn, and Villa have only won once – that was this season when they won 4-1 last October. The overall record in history shows West Ham with 45 wins, Villa with 39, and 35 draws.

Two worrying statistics: We have won four and drawn four of our last eight home league games against Villa, and Villa have only ever beaten us once both home and away in a single season in the Premier League. How often do impressive runs like that come to an end?

Our record in Sunday games that follow Thursday evening games is not the best but at least this time Villa are in the same boat, as they had a Europa Conference League game on the same night that we put five past Freiburg when they beat Ajax 4-0 to win by that aggregate score and progress into their first European Quarter Final for 25 years. We will be hoping to improve on our record of dropping points in five of the seven Sunday games that have followed a Europa League game.

Villa’s impressive England striker Watkins is always a threat but he is battling to recover from a gashed knee to be fit for the game. Their captain John McGinn is banned following the reckless tackle last weekend that got him sent off against Tottenham. Emerson has been missing for a couple of games but he may be fit to resume at left back. Cornet is the only definite absentee – apparently he has a hamstring injury. Will we miss him? Is he still with us?

I wonder if Danny Ings will get a run out at some stage? If by chance he scores a goal he would become only the third player to score a Premier League goal against four of his former teams – Peter Crouch and Nicolas Anelka are the others. We will hope that Lucas Paqueta starts of course and has calmed down following his substitution in the week – all our 12 league wins this season have come with him in the starting eleven whereas we’ve failed to win any of the seven games where he hasn’t been involved.

Villa are impressive going forward with only Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal scoring more goals in the league so far this season. I cannot see them failing to score which will mean that we will need to be positive, and all four of Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen and a fit Antonio will need to be firing at the same level as they were on Thursday night. Can we win the game? I hope so but it won’t be easy. I’ll go for a 2-2 draw for the second weekend in a row.