
Here we are roughly three-quarters of the way through the season and we have the fourth international break. Only three league games had been completed when we had the first, seven games for the second, and just eleven when we had a free weekend for the third. I guess it is about time for another one! Due to the EFL Cup and FA Cup, the number of league games played by Premier League clubs varies between Manchester United and Southampton on 26, and a few teams like ourselves on 29. We therefore have just nine games left to finish in as high a position as possible. But how high will that be?
|
Pts. |
Left |
||
|
1 |
Chelsea |
69 |
10 |
|
2 |
Tottenham |
56 |
11 |
|
3 |
Man City |
56 |
11 |
|
4 |
Liverpool |
55 |
10 |
|
5 |
Arsenal |
50 |
11 |
|
6 |
Everton |
50 |
9 |
|
7 |
Man United |
49 |
12 |
|
8 |
West Brom |
43 |
9 |
|
9 |
Stoke |
36 |
9 |
|
10 |
Southampton |
33 |
12 |
|
11 |
Bournemouth |
33 |
9 |
|
12 |
West Ham |
33 |
9 |
|
13 |
Burnley |
32 |
9 |
|
14 |
Watford |
31 |
10 |
|
15 |
Leicester |
30 |
10 |
|
16 |
Palace |
28 |
10 |
|
17 |
Swansea |
27 |
9 |
|
18 |
Hull |
24 |
9 |
|
19 |
Middlesbrough |
22 |
11 |
|
20 |
Sunderland |
20 |
10 |
Looking at the current league table above, which shows the points achieved so far and the number of games left in the season, then nobody could possibly bet against Chelsea coming out on top, although the fight to get into a top four position is not yet cut and dried. At the bottom, then the three most north-easterly clubs in the country look in trouble. We are in that cluster of clubs fighting for a ninth-place finish, as the top eight are now well clear barring a significant change of fortune.
Of course we don’t know what will happen between now and the end of the season, but one possible indicator is to look at the recent form of all the teams, and project this forward to the season’s end. As they write in all financial services advertisements, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but companies nevertheless still provide projections to enable potential investors to consider what might be achieved. So for this prediction exercise I looked at the number of points per game that all the teams have achieved in the most recent 10 games, and then multiplied this by the number of games that each has to play, to come up with a forecast of the final positions based on the form showed in their last ten games. And this was the result.
End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 10 games
|
1 |
Chelsea |
92 |
|
2 |
Tottenham |
81 |
|
3 |
Man City |
78 |
|
4 |
Man United |
75 |
|
5 |
Everton |
71 |
|
6 |
Liverpool |
70 |
|
7 |
Arsenal |
68 |
|
8 |
West Brom |
58 |
|
9 |
Stoke |
50 |
|
10 |
Southampton |
47 |
|
11 |
Leicester |
43 |
|
12 |
West Ham |
43 |
|
13 |
Bournemouth |
41 |
|
14 |
Swansea |
41 |
|
15 |
Burnley |
40 |
|
16 |
Watford |
40 |
|
17 |
Palace |
40 |
|
18 |
Hull |
34 |
|
19 |
Middlesbrough |
26 |
|
20 |
Sunderland |
26 |
No great surprises here, although Manchester United would achieve a top four finish. We would finish in twelfth spot (as now) and the bottom three teams would be unchanged. Somebody I showed this to suggested that to look at the form of the last ten games would not be as accurate as considering the most recent results achieved, and it might be worth looking at a shorter time frame. So I carried out the same exercise looking at the most recent six games, and then projecting the end of season points totals from that, and this was the result:
End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 6 games
|
1 |
Chelsea |
92 |
|
2 |
Man City |
82 |
|
3 |
Tottenham |
76 |
|
4 |
Liverpool |
72 |
|
5 |
Everton |
70 |
|
6 |
Man United |
69 |
|
7 |
Arsenal |
61 |
|
8 |
West Brom |
58 |
|
9 |
Southampton |
51 |
|
10 |
Palace |
48 |
|
11 |
Stoke |
47 |
|
12 |
Leicester |
45 |
|
13 |
Bournemouth |
44 |
|
14 |
Watford |
43 |
|
15 |
West Ham |
41 |
|
16 |
Burnley |
37 |
|
17 |
Swansea |
36 |
|
18 |
Hull |
35 |
|
19 |
Sunderland |
28 |
|
20 |
Middlesbrough |
26 |
This table produces greater variation than the previous one because we are looking at a smaller time frame. Some will argue that this could be more accurate as it is based upon more recent form. But as West Ham fans, we know that form can change. When we go along we never quite know what West Ham team will turn up, or what we can expect. Our form fluctuates more than many others. Nonetheless, this projection is more worrying in that we end up down in 15th place. Palace, on the other hand, finish in the top half of the table.
Mischievously, partly because I have a good idea what the results will be, I did a final calculation of end of season positions, based upon form in the last three games only. This is, perhaps, too narrow a time frame to be realistic. Or is it? The result is shown below.
End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 3 games
|
1 |
Chelsea |
99 |
|
2 |
Man City |
82 |
|
3 |
Tottenham |
78 |
|
4 |
Man United |
77 |
|
5 |
Liverpool |
75 |
|
6 |
Everton |
68 |
|
7 |
Arsenal |
61 |
|
8 |
Leicester |
60 |
|
9 |
Palace |
58 |
|
10 |
Southampton |
57 |
|
11 |
Bournemouth |
54 |
|
12 |
West Brom |
52 |
|
13 |
Stoke |
48 |
|
14 |
Swansea |
36 |
|
15 |
Burnley |
35 |
|
16 |
Watford |
34 |
|
17 |
West Ham |
33 |
|
18 |
Hull |
33 |
|
19 |
Middlesbrough |
26 |
|
20 |
Sunderland |
23 |
I knew roughly what this would show, as we are the only team in the Premier League without a single point in our last three games. But if this did prove to be an indicator of the end of season position, then it would be a matter of goal difference as to whether or not we play in the Premier League next season! One thing is for sure. Our current form needs to improve, and we probably do need a few more points to be safe.

My preview of the game on Saturday morning unfortunately prophesied what might happen in this game. We faced a Leicester side that hadn’t won an away Premier League game for almost a year. Why do we do this? They had managed just three draws away and ten defeats this season. But if you want to end a bad run of any kind, there is nothing better than facing West Ham. It happens time and time again.

In Week 28, Rich scored 6 points, Geoff 8 points, and Lawro 8 points.
So that’s it now. Defeat at Bournemouth means we cannot mathematically win the league this season! Seriously though, we can still go down! But we won’t. We are just one of those cluster of teams in mid-table that doesn’t have the capability to challenge the top six, but have just enough to keep clear of the relegation dogfight. I have noticed that this weekend social media has gone into overdrive with so many fans telling us what has gone wrong, why it has gone wrong, and who is to blame, whether it is the board, poor recruitment, the manager, the coaching, the fitness of our players, players playing in wrong positions, the stadium, the size of the pitch, the tactics, poor officials, or whatever. And everybody knows the answer, and so many of the answers are different! And if you disagree with the opinion of the author of a comment then you are an expletive. So many pick the team that they believe should play, and then so many disagree with some of the choices. Who’d be a manager?
We go into the game on the South Coast this weekend sitting in eleventh place in the Premier League table on 33 points after 27 games. This effectively means that we are at the top of the bottom half of the league. Based on revenue figures we would hope to finish seventh by the end of the season, but this is not going to happen. It is good to see that some of our fans have retained their sense of humour, as I read one tweet today that said unless we pick up three points against Bournemouth then we cannot win the league!