Author: Richard Bennett

After the weekend results I have to conclude that the 37 points that we have on the board will be enough to ensure Premier League football at the London Stadium next season. Looking at the remaining fixtures Sunderland would need to win their six remaining games to reach that figure, and that is an impossibility. Middlesbrough have a tough run-in and would need to win at least four and draw a couple, and that is not on either. The only teams with a chance of overhauling us are Burnley (possible), Bournemouth (yes, possible), Palace (again, possible), Hull would need two wins and two draws from their last five (very unlikely), and Swansea would need three wins and a draw from their last five (almost impossible). All of the teams who might possibly overtake us would have to do so, and that will not happen.

We sit in thirteenth place, nine points clear of a relegation place (ten, if you include the likely goal difference factor), yet it could, and should, have been eleven points, except that we find it amazingly difficult to retain a winning position in a game of football. Twice we led, and twice we were pegged back, including the almost obligatory concession of a goal in the ninetieth minute. OK, I realise that the referee had to add on ten minutes to that time, but surely we must learn to see out a game when we are ahead.

That is now 22 points that we have lost from a winning position in a Premier League game this season. If we had retained the lead in all of those games (yes, I know that would be unlikely, but some teams can do it) then we would now be sitting on 59 points, and in fifth place in the table. Considering how we have failed to perform in so many fixtures, I think we would have settled for fifth, or even a place in top seven or so, as last season. But no, we contrive to throw away lead after lead.

In this game we scored two goals taking our total for the season to date 26 goals away from home. Only Man City with 36, Arsenal with 30, and Liverpool with 28 can better our tally in this respect. Even the top two teams in the table, who are likely to finish the season in those places, cannot better our goals scored away from home. So, although some will believe we don’t have a strategy to break down opposition defences, or the pace to hit them on the counter, as we frequently did last season, nobody can argue with the figures that show our ability to score away goals.

The real problem is with our defence, where the 32 goals conceded is only exceeded by Hull (41), Bournemouth (37), Leicester (35), Swansea (35), and Burnley (33). Defending at home is perhaps, even worse, and 27 goals against is only beaten by Swansea (33) and Sunderland (31). You cannot solely blame a goalkeeper for this, but it is generally recognised that Randolph has had a poor run lately. Both goals were down to him, although the first was arguably a foul against him. However, he allows himself to be dominated by the opposition and does not command his six-yard box like a top goalkeeper in English football needs to. Adrian was left out of the team after a few errors, and perhaps it is time for Randolph to suffer the same fate. Both are not bad goalkeepers, but if the talk is about “moving up to the next level” then I’m not sure that either of one of them is the right custodian to enable us to do this.

We have height and experience in central defence, but lack pace, which is such an important ingredient in the modern game. We have two left backs who are OK, but right back has been a problem area for some time. And we will be without Byram now, after his two yellows led to him being sent off. The partnership of Kouyate and Fernandes gave our defensive midfield pace, but neither has tackling as their forte, and we badly miss Obiang, who is, of course, out for the rest of the season.

We are now three points away from the top half of the table, with an inferior goal difference in comparison to the other teams in contention for a ninth-placed finish, so it will take a good run of results to achieve that (looking increasingly unlikely) position. But three home games against top-six opposition and potentially tricky away fixtures at Stoke and Burnley give the players quite a challenge in the run-in, and many will need to do so to prove their value for a position in the squad next season.

I believe we will need a much better recruitment campaign this close season to enable us to move upwards from our current “fighting for a mid-table place”. But whoever is in the team there are some basics that need to be mastered, especially defending set pieces, and retaining a winning position. Even with our current squad, we would have been in a much healthier position in the league table if we had performed better in these two areas.

As the final seconds of extra time in the 1966 World Cup Final ticked away, and Geoff Hurst ran towards the West German goal, Kenneth Wolstenholme uttered the immortal line, “Some people are on the pitch …. They think it’s all over …. It is now”. The final three words came as Geoff’s left footed blast hit the back of the net, and England were the world champions, defeating the Germans 4-2, and sparking wild celebrations on the pitch, at the ground, and throughout England.

As the final whistle blew last Saturday, you could have been excused for thinking that West Ham had just won a major trophy. The relief on the faces of the players, the manager, and the fans was palpable. It was a very important victory, and potentially a season-defining one, achieved in front of a magnificent atmosphere in the stadium. It opened up a gap of 8 points above the relegation zone third team, who are Swansea themselves. Defeat would have reduced this to being just three points ahead of Hull, who would have been in the final relegation slot with a Swansea win. Eight points is a lot to make up with just six games of the season to go, but not an impossible one.

A quick look at the fixture list reveals that the teams below us all have winnable games left, and at the time it seemed that Palace, like ourselves, had potentially the toughest fixtures on paper in the games still to be played. But that was blown out of the water to an extent with the comprehensive Eagles 3-0 win over a stuttering Arsenal team. Stuttering that is, except for when they played us!

On the other hand, our optimistic fans are looking upwards, and our tally of 36 points in 14^th position is just one point shy of Watford, who are in 9^th place just one point above us. So a top-half finish is very much within our grasp with a good run before the end of the campaign, hopefully beginning with a victory at Sunderland this weekend, who themselves look pretty much doomed, and trail a safety position by 10 points.

I believe a win in this game, whilst not making us mathematically safe yet, would just about ensure that next season we are again in the Premier League. But these are the types of games where we can come unstuck. And if that is the case, and if the results of the teams below us are positive ones, then there will still be plenty to play for.

There is a mythical figure of 40 points that all teams strive to achieve as soon as possible every season, believing that they will be safe, but this is not always the case, as we found out to our cost in 2002-2003 under Glenn Roeder. This season it will probably be OK though, as it is doubtful that both Swansea will achieve 12 points, and Hull 10 points, in their six remaining games. But both have at least four “winnable” fixtures left, and the fat lady is not singing yet, although she is probably going through her vocal exercises in preparation. A win over the Mackems will leave us just one shy of the mythical 40, and with a significantly superior goal difference (at the moment!) over Hull and Swansea, 39 could turn out to be the important figure.

Of course, we may have enough points in the bag already. Many fans around me were saying that, after the win over the Swans, that is it, we are now safe. I read today (I don’t know how true it is) that Messrs. Sullivan and Gold are now looking for potential wealthy investors to buy into the club, to take us to the next level, believing that Premier League football is secure now.

It probably is, but with West Ham you can never be sure. Our current “safe” position is not irreversible, and there are still balls to be kicked before the season’s end. So to those of you who think that it is all over, I urge a note of caution, not yet it’s not! But hopefully, it soon will be, and with a few wins in the remaining games we can end up in the top half of the table, a position that didn’t look likely earlier in the season.