As another season draws to a close its success (or otherwise) history will judge it on the final outcomes, not in the way they were achieved. As was the case last season, it might have been painful to watch but if there’s something shiny awarded at the end of it, much of the detail will be forgotten. The equivalent of Braveheart winning an Oscar.
With approximately six weeks of the season remaining, there are two obstacles standing between West Ham and failure. There is the ever diminishing possibility that they will claim a European qualification spot through league position, wherever that line is eventually drawn under today’s convoluted rules. And the even remoter possibility, that they make their way to and win the Europa League final in Dublin. Within the next week, the Hammer’s fate on both fronts may be permanently sealed.
Managers will often say they don’t prioritise one competition over another, but we know from past experience that actions speak louder than words. Then there is the unconscious appeal that playing in the later stages of cup competitions will surely have. Intentionally or not, Thursday’s visit to Bayer Leverkusen will be on everyone’s mind prior to today’s Premier League fixture in Wolverhampton.
The demands of an intensive run-in are not helped at West Ham by the small number of players in the squad that the manager is prepared to use and trust. With no squad rotation of note and minimal use of substitutes the consequence is certain players being flogged beyond their limits as the chasing pack look to overtake them. The team bus could even have a bumper sticker on it – Running In – Please Pass.
There was an obvious irony when David Moyes spoke about the difficulty of coping with Edson Alvarez’s suspension due to the club’s small squad size. Completely overlooking that this has been a deliberate strategy of his own making. Pablo Fornals, Said Benrahma, and Thilo Kehrer didn’t go missing in January, they were let go when inadequate playing time finally got to them. They had been alienated in Moyes system of favourites, just as Danny Ings and Maxwell Cornet have been since. The effective size of the squad in the manager’s mind is no more than 13 or 14 players. And the one player that Moyes did elect to sign in January was a defensive midfielder, the same as Alvarez.
It will come as no surprise that West Ham’s use of substitutes is one of lowest in the League. In stats prepared prior to the last international break, they had used an average of 2.79 subs per game. Only Manchester City scored lower at 2.75 – the sole statistic where Moyes can be mentioned in the same breath as Guardiola. In comparison, Brighton used 4.75 subs per game and 13 of 30 clubs exceeded 4.0. Moyes had only used all 5 subs once (in a fit of anger during the heavy defeat at Fulham) and opted for just one change four times – out of the ten times recorded in all Premier League games. The Hammers also had the oldest bench – the players on it that is, not the bench itself – and were last place in both the timing of the first change (67 minutes) and the average time of all substitutions. Over 17% of all West Ham changes happened after the 90th minute.
There was, however, a first in the Tottenham game, when Moyes made no changes at all. Perhaps chastened by his game changing switch at Newcastle, he opted to stick with what he had rather than risk Kalvin Phillips screwing things up again. In some respects, adopting a more defensive and cautious approach against top teams can make sense. After all, it was obvious Tottenham had few ideas on breaking though a low block. It is when the same tactics are employed against Burnley or Bournemouth that it becomes truly frustrating. On the other hand, fans deserve more to get them off their seats in the heat of a local derby under the lights. It’s fine to say you’re happy with taking four points from Tottenham in retrospect, but it can’t be justification or an intentional gameplan.
I though there were two odd comments from the managers post-match . The first where Postecoglou kept repeating that West Ham are a big side. That’s not really the case, is it? Of the outfield players, only Kurt Zouma, Dinos, and Tomas Soucek are over 6 feet. In fact, it is one of the shortest squads in the league. The second was Moyes claim that his team had played on the front foot. Difficult to see how that stacks up for a side who had only 33% possession. Perhaps he uses a different definition of front foot.
Today, the Hammers meet another side who pooh-pooh the benefits or possession. Despite enjoying slightly more of the ball than West Ham, Wolves fall below West Ham on touches in the opposition area – although both sit in the bottom five for this metric. So, it will be interesting to see who takes control of procedings.
Gary O’Neil has done a fine job in his first season at Wolves. They looked to be in disarray when Lopetegui jumped ship in August, so to be in with a shout for a European place is some achievement. He will again be without Neto and Hwang to face the Hammers but should be able to give starts to Cunha and Dawson. Kilman and Lamina have always impressed when I have watched Wolves and it is side that rarely gives up.
Typically, there’s little point speculating about how West Ham will line-up. It’s always the usual suspects. But with the Leverkusen game on the horizon, there must be concerns with the wisdom of featuring Zouma and Michail Antonio in both games. Angelo Ogbonna or Nayef Aguerd are options to replace Zouma, and the return of Alvarez may prompt a rejig that sees Antonio rested to the bench.
It seems no team wants to make the running in the battle for the minor European placings. It was all fairly inconclusive over Easter except for Chelsea’s win over Manchester United setting them up for a late charge. Of the other clubs involved, Bournemouth have the best form while both West Ham and Wolves have been consistently inconsistent. If the Hammers lose at Molineux it could see them drop into the bottom half of the table by the end of the current round of matches -having played a game more than the other challengers.
Richard provided an update on the projections of the Bennett supercomputer yesterday which describes what West Ham would need to reach the expected Euro qualification target of 57 points. Now, I know it’s never over until the fat lady sings but with just two league wins in 2024 to their name, a top ten finish only looks possible if Fujitsu can go in and edit the tables once the season is finished.
A 1-1 draw today. COYI!
Under The Hammers 