The Fourth International Break

Here we are roughly three-quarters of the way through the season and we have the fourth international break. Only three league games had been completed when we had the first, seven games for the second, and just eleven when we had a free weekend for the third. I guess it is about time for another one! Due to the EFL Cup and FA Cup, the number of league games played by Premier League clubs varies between Manchester United and Southampton on 26, and a few teams like ourselves on 29. We therefore have just nine games left to finish in as high a position as possible. But how high will that be?

		Pts.	Left
1	Chelsea	69	10
2	Tottenham	56	11
3	Man City	56	11
4	Liverpool	55	10
5	Arsenal	50	11
6	Everton	50	9
7	Man United	49	12
8	West Brom	43	9
9	Stoke	36	9
10	Southampton	33	12
11	Bournemouth	33	9
12	West Ham	33	9
13	Burnley	32	9
14	Watford	31	10
15	Leicester	30	10
16	Palace	28	10
17	Swansea	27	9
18	Hull	24	9
19	Middlesbrough	22	11
20	Sunderland	20	10

Looking at the current league table above, which shows the points achieved so far and the number of games left in the season, then nobody could possibly bet against Chelsea coming out on top, although the fight to get into a top four position is not yet cut and dried. At the bottom, then the three most north-easterly clubs in the country look in trouble. We are in that cluster of clubs fighting for a ninth-place finish, as the top eight are now well clear barring a significant change of fortune.

Of course we don’t know what will happen between now and the end of the season, but one possible indicator is to look at the recent form of all the teams, and project this forward to the season’s end. As they write in all financial services advertisements, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but companies nevertheless still provide projections to enable potential investors to consider what might be achieved. So for this prediction exercise I looked at the number of points per game that all the teams have achieved in the most recent 10 games, and then multiplied this by the number of games that each has to play, to come up with a forecast of the final positions based on the form showed in their last ten games. And this was the result.

End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 10 games

1	Chelsea	92
2	Tottenham	81
3	Man City	78
4	Man United	75
5	Everton	71
6	Liverpool	70
7	Arsenal	68
8	West Brom	58
9	Stoke	50
10	Southampton	47
11	Leicester	43
12	West Ham	43
13	Bournemouth	41
14	Swansea	41
15	Burnley	40
16	Watford	40
17	Palace	40
18	Hull	34
19	Middlesbrough	26
20	Sunderland	26

No great surprises here, although Manchester United would achieve a top four finish. We would finish in twelfth spot (as now) and the bottom three teams would be unchanged. Somebody I showed this to suggested that to look at the form of the last ten games would not be as accurate as considering the most recent results achieved, and it might be worth looking at a shorter time frame. So I carried out the same exercise looking at the most recent six games, and then projecting the end of season points totals from that, and this was the result:

End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 6 games

1	Chelsea	92
2	Man City	82
3	Tottenham	76
4	Liverpool	72
5	Everton	70
6	Man United	69
7	Arsenal	61
8	West Brom	58
9	Southampton	51
10	Palace	48
11	Stoke	47
12	Leicester	45
13	Bournemouth	44
14	Watford	43
15	West Ham	41
16	Burnley	37
17	Swansea	36
18	Hull	35
19	Sunderland	28
20	Middlesbrough	26

This table produces greater variation than the previous one because we are looking at a smaller time frame. Some will argue that this could be more accurate as it is based upon more recent form. But as West Ham fans, we know that form can change. When we go along we never quite know what West Ham team will turn up, or what we can expect. Our form fluctuates more than many others. Nonetheless, this projection is more worrying in that we end up down in 15^th place. Palace, on the other hand, finish in the top half of the table.

Mischievously, partly because I have a good idea what the results will be, I did a final calculation of end of season positions, based upon form in the last three games only. This is, perhaps, too narrow a time frame to be realistic. Or is it? The result is shown below.

End of Season Predicted Points Tally Based on the form of the last 3 games

1	Chelsea	99
2	Man City	82
3	Tottenham	78
4	Man United	77
5	Liverpool	75
6	Everton	68
7	Arsenal	61
8	Leicester	60
9	Palace	58
10	Southampton	57
11	Bournemouth	54
12	West Brom	52
13	Stoke	48
14	Swansea	36
15	Burnley	35
16	Watford	34
17	West Ham	33
18	Hull	33
19	Middlesbrough	26
20	Sunderland	23

I knew roughly what this would show, as we are the only team in the Premier League without a single point in our last three games. But if this did prove to be an indicator of the end of season position, then it would be a matter of goal difference as to whether or not we play in the Premier League next season! One thing is for sure. Our current form needs to improve, and we probably do need a few more points to be safe.