Running In Please Pass! More Revs Required To Put The Brakes On Hammers Slide Down The Table

It may be all about perceptions, but a late season slump may take the shine off an admirable Hammer’s season. Can the Irons pull European qualification out of the fire?

Does anyone remember the ‘Running In Please Pass’ signs sometimes seen in the rear window of cars with a new or rebuilt engine installed? The driver was obliged to stick below 4000 revs for the first 1000 miles or get it run-in. He (or she) could only watch in frustration as the other vehicles raced by. The recent West Ham run-in experience has brought those stickers to mind.

Securing a top four spot and breaking the big club dominance of the Premier League was always going to be a tall order, just as it might ultimately be for Leicester on the final day. Yet, there is a feeling that, if it was ever going to happen for the Hammers, this was the year of opportunity. That the dream was kept alive so long is no small credit to the manager and players.

The first season run-in calculators started to appear with around eight games to go. At the time the Hammers had 52 points from 30 games – a creditable average of 1.73 points per game. There were tough games to come against Leicester and Chelsea but apart from that the remaining games looked winnable. It started with great promise and victory at Leicester saw us up to fourth, just a point behind the Foxes. Then momentum suddenly stalled as defeats to Newcastle and Everton, coinciding with critical injuries, took a heavy toll. A return of just seven points from six games (1.1 points per game) had left us in the slow lane and we could only watch as Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham all roared past. Was this a repeat of the disappointing end to the 2015/16 season?

Football has much to do with perceptions. Consider those two rip-roaring 3-3 draws against Tottenham and Arsenal. After the first, joy and elation to celebrate a miraculous comeback; after the second, despondency and anger at throwing away a three goal lead. Similarly, a late end of season charge taking us from tenth to seventh would be viewed very positively, while slipping from fourth to seventh is seen as a huge disappointment – even though the outcome is the same.

Still, all is not lost. Two attractive targets remain available to the Hammers. To secure a claim for some form of European adventure next season, and the chance to finish above a Tottenham side reeling from the intended departure of Citizen Kane (his probable destination). Winning the final two games, starting away at The Hawthorns tonight, must be the catalyst for hitting those targets.

You wait half a season for one Albion and then two of them come along together. A largely forgettable draw against the Brighton and Hove variety at the weekend saw the Hammers salvage a priceless point with a first ever West Ham goal for Said Benrahma. Perhaps he can now feel a little less anxious about the need to get on the scoresheet. As in the Everton game it was a very poor (and similar) goal to concede – an opposition forward allowed to simply run past a static defence. Is that too high a line to play with little pace in the centre of defence?

In attack, the Hammers once again struggled to sparkle in a game where space for forward runners was denied by the opponents. Setting up as a fast counter-attacking side is all well and good (and it has reaped tremendous dividends on plenty of occasions this season) but there are times when a different approach is needed. One that shows greater intensity but also the variety and guile to get behind and break open defences. In the game against Everton and Brighton there was plenty of probing but most of it was so predictable and short on fervour. Energy, passion, intensity and bravery need to be on show tonight.

Recent woes have highlighted the downside of not having a natural goalscorer in the squad. Sharing the goals around is great but sometimes you need to rely on the guy who is almost guaranteed to put away the one chance that falls his way. I believe West Ham are the only top half team where no-one has yet to reach double figures in the scoring charts.

It is impossible to know how West Brom will approach tonight’s game. There are always two schools of thought on already relegated sides. Either they will play with freedom now the pressure is off, or they will already be mentally basking on a green list beach somewhere. They certainly played with a spirited determination against Liverpool at the weekend and I don’t think we should rely on last-minute goal drama such as a Lukasz Fabianski overhead scissors kick for salvation. A half-hearted resistance from the Baggies, like that shown by Norwich at the end of last season, would be perfect. Albion did after all start out in life as the West Bromwich Strollers. Does Big Sam (I’ve Only Ever Been Relagated Once) Allardyce owe us any favours?

Team-wise we are left with only the usual matchday debates between Craig Dawson or Issa Diop and Said Benrahma or Jarrod Bowen. Injuries aside, everything else usually stays the same. If we should be looking for late goal-scoring heroics then wouldn’t Mipo Odubeko be a better hat to throw in the ring than Andriy Yarmolenko? Surely, he couldn’t perform any worse.

Despite the apparent shortcomings in penetrating massed defences, West Ham have a decent record against bottom half sides this season. The thing about a massed defence is that you only have to breach it once and the floodgates are wide open for good. This is my hope for tonight. A headed set-piece goal followed by the rampant Hammers running riot with a 4-1 win. COYI!

Qualification for Europe is within West Ham’s grasp tonight

Astonishingly, as we entered the penultimate round of matches in this season’s Premier League, there were still five teams with a mathematical chance of joining the two Manchester clubs in the top four at the end of the season, and one of those five was West Ham! Whoever would have believed that we would come this close to qualifying for the Champions League? Of course only three teams had a realistic chance, with the bookmakers’ odds reflecting their chances as follows: Liverpool 1/7, Chelsea 4/9, Leicester 8/11, Tottenham and West Ham both at 250/1.

Prior to yesterday Leicester knew that a win at Chelsea would guarantee a top four finish, as would a draw at Chelsea and a win over Tottenham in Sunday’s final game. Chelsea knew that they had to beat Leicester and then Villa on Sunday to be certain of finishing in the top four. Of course they had the backup of knowing that beating Manchester City in this season’s final would also secure entry into the next Champions League competition. Thanks to their 95th minute winner at West Brom last Sunday, Liverpool became the clear favourites, knowing that if Chelsea failed to beat Leicester, victories over both Burnley and Palace (hardly the most in-form sides) would see them into the top four. As it turned out (in this topsy turvy season) Chelsea reversed the FA Cup Final result by beating Leicester at Stamford Bridge last night.

Tottenham needed to win both of their games and then hope that Chelsea didn’t exceed one point in their final two games and Liverpool didn’t get more than two points in their last two. Although we were level on points with Tottenham, an inferior goal difference meant that we needed Chelsea to lose their final two games, Liverpool to not get more than one point in their last two games, Tottenham to fail to pick up six points from their last two, and for us to win both of ours. Based on our recent form and the permutations needed, this was realistically a much longer shot than 250/1! But I wonder what odds you would have got at the beginning of the season for West Ham to still mathematically have a chance of a top four finish after 36 games had been played?

Of course the Chelsea win finally ruined both Tottenham’s and our own remote chances of a top four finish to set up a potential final day scramble between the three teams who could finally capture the remaining two places. If Liverpool do beat Burnley today then it keeps Leicester really honest in their final game against Tottenham which is good for us in our hopes of finishing above our North London neighbours.

Chelsea (67 points, Goal Difference 23, 1 game to go) – Villa (Sun) – maximum points possible 70.

Leicester (66 points, Goal Difference 20, 1 game to go) – Tottenham (Sun) – maximum points possible 69.

Liverpool (63 points, Goal Difference 21, 2 games to go) – Burnley (today), Palace (Sun) – maximum points possible 69.

West Ham (59 points, Goal Difference 10, 2 games to go) –West Brom (today), Southampton (Sun) – maximum points possible 65.

Tottenham (59 points, Goal Difference 22, 2 games to go) – Villa (today), Leicester (Sun) – maximum points possible 65.

So where will we finish once the season is over on Sunday afternoon? Two defeats in our last two matches could mean that we are overtaken by Everton, Arsenal and possibly even Leeds to finish as low as tenth! Two draws in our final two games would still enable Everton and Arsenal to finish above us if they picked up two wins apiece, and we could finish a disappointing ninth. Winning just one of our final two games would guarantee that we retain our current position of seventh, and winning at least one game plus picking up more points than Tottenham would ensure sixth. To finish fifth would only be possible if Liverpool slip up badly now, and we outpoint Tottenham.

Seventh is therefore very realistic, and my understanding is that this would mean a place in the Play-Off round of the newly-formed Europa Conference League, which would mean an additional 17 games next season if we went all the way to the final. I believe that a sixth (or even 5th – very unlikely) place finish would mean entry at the group stage of the Europa League, which would add 15 games next season if we reached the final. Of course this kind of success in Europe is not likely to happen, but even being in the group stage of either competition adds a significant number of games in the first half of the season. We would need a much enhanced squad to do either competition justice.

Surely we can win at least one of our final two games to guarantee to be playing in Europe next season? After the excellent season that we’ve had so far it would be a big disappointment to fail to qualify for one of the European competitions. But West Brom showed against Liverpool last Sunday that they can be difficult to beat, so just because they have been relegated doesn’t mean we can take a victory for granted. In fact once teams reach a stage where they can play without pressure, they are often a much better side as a result.

In over 100 games against West Brom in major competitions each team has won 41 times, but in the 21 meetings in the Premier League, we have won eight, nine have been drawn and the Baggies have won four. Of course we won the reverse fixture in January (2-1) and a win tonight would be the first time in 15 years that we have completed the double over them, but more importantly would guarantee at least a seventh place finish and qualification for Europe.

Interestingly I read that West Brom have only won one of their past sixteen midweek league games, and all six of such games with Allardyce in charge. And Big Sam has lost in all four meetings against West Ham since he left us six years ago. These are the type of statistics that have come to haunt West Ham in the past. How long is it since we’ve kept a clean sheet? We’ve only kept two in the Premier League in this calendar year (Leeds and Sheffield United). I am looking forward to a repeat of the score at the London Stadium four months ago. We are 4/7 to win the game and 13/2 to win by two goals to one.

A win tonight would be great, plus we will all be hoping that Villa can deny a Tottenham victory. What are the chances?