Tag: #ARSWHU

The Hammers Are Back: A Breath Of Fresh Air Or A Bad Dose Of Qatarrh?

The road to recovery is meant to start here. To do so the tortoise must beat the hare and David Moyes must shatter his shocking record away to top six sides.

West Ham return to Premier League action today in aspirational ‘turn things around’ mode as they make the short, and historically fruitless, trip across London to face league leaders Arsenal.

The Hammers entered the World Cup break with a bleak run of tame home defeats that saw them lose to Crystal Palace, Leicester, and Blackburn Rovers. Many believed it was a sequence that would see the end of David Moyes, but the board have decided to stick with him, in the hope of a miraculous upturn in fortunes. What fresh ideas they seen in performances to date can only be speculated upon. Yet they seem convinced he is the man to throw off his hard-wired caution and lead a charge back to the European table?

The worry for me is that we are entering a period of uncertainty and paralysis. The manager on life support hoping to survive day-to-day by scraping enough points to stay out of the bottom three and avoiding any embarrassing thrashings. It is a recipe for greater caution, not for a renewed sense of adventure that might get the best out of the expensive new signings.

How the six-week break will impact matters is impossible to tell. Some had the chance to take relaxed winter holidays while others experienced the thrills and heartache of representing their countries in Qatar. How will the World Cup hangover play out – not just for West Ham but for all teams?

Unlike the COVID break in 2020 there will have been no opportunity to work as group on fixing the many things that have been going badly. There was no obvious new approach on show in the recent friendly matches. And you will remember that West Ham lost the first two games when post-COVID matches resumed in June 2020.

The task that faces the Hammers today is a daunting one, regardless of their poor record in this fixture. Arsenal are five points clear at the top of the table having played eight of their fourteen games away from home. At The Emirates, they have won six out six. Conversely, West Ham have just one win and one draw to show from seven matches played on the road. The game will be a contest where pace and fluidity meets slow and predictable. Mismatches don’t come much bigger than this!

Moyes has selection dilemmas both front and back today. The roll call of injured and doubtful players includes Kurt Zouma, Nayef Aguerd, Aaron Cresswell, Maxwell Cornet, Michail Antonio and Gianluca Scamacca. If I were to be cynical, I’d suggest Moyes already has this down as a home win, and will not risk anyone who is not fully fit. His tactics will be driven by damage limitation, holding on to the point if that is at all possible.

On the other hand, the Gunners will be close to full strength apart from the missing Jesus who was injured in Qatar. I have mixed feelings about Arsenal. It is a club punching above its weight which at times can be a joy to watch. But under Arteta they are too fond of the dark arts for my liking. Expect at least one penalty with Saka and Martinelli going to ground faster than a paranoid fox.

I fully expect Moyes to play with a back five today – with the makeshift set of players that are at his disposal. It will be sitting deep and hoping to snatch a goal from a set piece. Moyes will have been making careful notes when Japan beat Spain in Qatar with less than 18% possession. A shot on target will be a momentous event.

I am conflicted right now. I never want West Ham to lose any game but equally don’t see any future scenario where the Hammers are a competitive and entertaining outfit under the current manager. Let’s not forget his abysmal managerial away record against top six sides.

Boxing Day success for the Hammers seems implausible. It would require David to slay Goliath, the tortoise to beat the hare, and Jack Reacher to fight off five hoodlums in the bar room parking lot – all rolled into one. Hats off to Moyes if he can pull something out of the fire but even the Moyesiah wouldn’t have chosen Arsenal away at Christmas as the starting point for his resurrection.

It is difficult to see any other outcome other than a comfortable defeat. I really hope that’s not the case but it’s what history and reality suggests. COYI!

It’s Good To Be Back! Domestic Football Resumes when West Ham visit the Emirates Stadium

It seems strange doesn’t it? Domestic football resumes after a month-long break for a winter World Cup. That’s something we’ve not experienced before, although the Covid break not so long ago was an interruption to the Premier League season too.

When I was young I (many years ago) I loved to watch international football but in recent years the friendly games have become virtually meaningless to me with unlimited substitutions disrupting matches. I’ve always enjoyed the tournaments though. The first one I remember (though not in detail) was the 1962 World Cup, and then of course the never to be forgotten 1966 one.

Despite my misgivings around this World Cup on a number of levels I watched a lot of the games and really enjoyed many of them, especially the upsets. Any one of a number of teams could have won the tournament – so much depends on penalties these days, which to some extent are a bit of a lottery. Thinking back to some of the early World Cups that I remember (1966 and 1970 in particular) I cannot remember any of the knockout games still being level after extra-time. Penalty shoot-outs didn’t exist at the time. What would have happened? Replays? I just can’t remember how the games would have been decided if games finished level. But I don’t think any did – none that I can remember anyway.

It was interesting to listen to Micah Richards and his disbelief when Gary Lineker told him that there were no substitutes back then. He was telling him about the 1966 final when the eleven players that started played all 120 minutes. Richards couldn’t believe that no substitutes could be brought on in those days. Obviously not a student of the history of the game. It’s a different game now, isn’t it?

I’m not sure I agree with the widely held belief that this was the greatest World Cup final ever. For 80 minutes France didn’t really turn up and it was very one-sided. Yes, the last ten minutes and extra time produced plenty of drama. For me the best final ever remains the 1970 one watching the great Brazil team of that era. I guess that was a bit one-sided too but still my favourite.

So now the Premier League resumes on Boxing Day and we face one of the more difficult games straight away, at league leaders Arsenal. But perhaps this is the best time to play them? It’s a bit like the first day of the season. I remember well the opening day of the 2015-16 season (our last at the Boleyn) when we travelled to the Emirates Stadium and came away with a 2-0 win thanks to goals from Kouyate and Zarate. That game was famous for the debut of 16 years-old Reece Oxford. What a talent and prospect he seemed. What a waste.

That was one of only two occasions in the last thirty meetings between the teams when we have collected the three points, the other being in January 2019 when Declan Rice scored his (first?) goal for us in a 1-0 victory at the London Stadium.

We’ve never beaten Arsenal on Boxing Day either in the past. The only two games that I can recall are a 1-0 defeat on 26th December 1998 when Marc Overmars scored the only goal of the game very early on. And then 15 years to the day later we lost to them at Upton Park when Carlton Cole gave us an early second-half lead, but two goals from Walcott and one from Podolski in the last quarter of the game wrapped up the points for the Gunners.

My earliest recollections of Christmas games are good though, beginning with two wins over Tottenham at Christmas 1958, home and away on December 25th and 26th – yes we did play on Christmas Day then! In the week immediately before and after Christmas there was a 4-4 draw and a 4-3 win over Forest in 1962, a 5-5 draw at Chelsea and two 4-1 wins over Blackpool in 1966, a 2-1 win over Tottenham and two 4-2 wins over Leicester in 1967, a 2-0 win over Tottenham in 1969, a 1-0 defeat of Tottenham in 1971, a 2-2 draw with Tottenham in 1972, a 4-2 win over Chelsea in 1973, and a 1-1 draw with Tottenham in 1974.

How many times have we played Tottenham in the Christmas period and beaten them?! They did beat us twice in 1960 on their way to doing the double that year but I’ve forgotten them. I’ve also neglected to mention Boxing Day 1963 when we lost 8-2 at home to Blackburn, although we did beat them at Ewood Park two days later (3-1).

So lots of good memories from my young days of Christmas games. Will this be another? To be honest I haven’t got a clue how we will fare this Monday. If the game had been played without the enforced break, then based on the form this season so far I wouldn’t have fancied our chances too highly. But now, who knows?

Our website has been talking up our unbeaten run in the three friendlies played in the past couple of weeks. Better than nothing I suppose but I’ve always felt that pre-season games were never a true indication of what would happen when the real stuff starts. And in a way this is no different to the start of the season.

I reckon we might surprise the league leaders. I hope so anyway. What are the chances?

Moyes Must Find A New Tune On The Old Fiddle To Shake Arsenal Disharmony

West Ham head to one of their unhappiest hunting grounds in search of London derby points. Can they come away with a rare victory?

A sure sign that West Ham are outsiders in the Premier League elite club was the failure to collect a get out of jail free decision when Craig Dawson was chopped down in the penalty area at Turf Moor on Sunday. No penalty goal bonus was to come our way on a weekend where Liverpool, Chelsea, and both Manchester clubs were each awarded soft spot kicks to guide them home.

The idea that there is context to a foul – he wouldn’t have reached the ball, or he didn’t have it under control – is a bizarre and undocumented concept as far as the laws of the game are concerned. Interpretations that only seem to apply inside the penalty area, on the subjective whim of officials, and in the eyes of prattling pundits.

It was difficult to assess the Hammer’s performance at Burnley. It was neither terrible nor good. Apart from a few shaky moments in the last ten minutes, the makeshift defence looked sound enough. Craig Dawson is, in many ways, the ideal centre back to resist the physical challenge of blunt instrument attackers such as Woods or Lukaku. It is against nippy and mobile opponents where he looks less assured. Elsewhere, we were treated to phases of neat passing and movement, except that all the the ideas fizzled out the closer we got to the Burnley goal.

This may be a season too far for the Clarets. Their time at the top table may well have run its course unless Dyche is allowed to refresh his squad during the transfer window. From early on the impression was they would be happy to finish with the point they started with. Setting out to frustrate the Hammers with a lack of adventure that allowed few opportunities for trademark West Ham counter-attacks (plan A). As one of the taller teams in the league, the hosts were also rarely troubled at set pieces (plan B).

In fairness, breaking down a well organised defence is not easy. It was why Manchester City and Liverpool had needed generous penalty gifts to get past Wolves and Aston Villa respectively. But the ability to create something special or perform the unexpected is in short supply in the West Ham squad. It can’t always be left to Declan Rice, who was once again head and shoulders above any other player on the pitch.

The inability to prise open packed defences (plan C) has already proved costly in points lost this season. There is no clear, obvious or quick fix to the problem and we must accept the squad does have limitations. It is still performing way above expectations. A creative attacking midfield player (or number 10, if you like) and a forward with true striker instincts are the undeniable missing pieces.

Tonight’s opponents Arsenal have made a good recovery after a very poor start to the season – although they continue to be inconsistent, particularly away from the Emirates. At home they have won their last four league games without conceding although each of these were against bottom six opposition (Leeds, Watford, Newcastle and Southampton). Although Mikel Arteta is now in his third season as manager, the team remains a work in progress. How long he will be given to turn matters around will be interesting. Arsenal doesn’t strike you as a particularly happy or together club/ squad and the latest Aubameyang disciplinary spat will only add to that disharmony. Another season without Europe may be the final blow for Arteta.

The Gunners are another of the sides who neither score nor concede many goals. They have several bright attacking players. Smith-Rowe is highly thought of (although I’m yet to be convinced) and Saka can cause havoc when given too much room. It is Odegaard, however, who poses the biggest threat for me. He was the spark that inspired Arsenal to claw their way back from three goals down at the London Stadium in March and will need to be closely shadowed. At the back, the hosts are bigger and stronger these days but somehow still fragile under pressure – more Vulnerables than Invincibles.

There is rarely too much to debate when it comes to the probable West Ham line-up. There are not that many options for David Moyes to ponder and he tends to stay loyal to a small group of players anyway. At some stage, Alphonse Areola will replace Lukas Fabianski, but don’t see that happening yet. If Aaron Cresswell is fit (fingers crossed) he will return at left back to keep an eye on Saka. Otherwise, it will be as you were in defence. Then it is a case of which three out of Jarrod Bowen, Manuel Lanzini, Pablo Fornals and Said Benrahma play behind Michail Antonio. Of course, all that is subject to no positive Covid tests being revealed.  

The Hammers have a terrible record away at Arsenal. Even when playing well, they have come away empty handed. It is now just one win (2015/16) in fourteen visits and I believe David Moyes has a similarly dismal record in his managerial career. It would be an ideal time to put those things right tonight. It will be a very different game from Sunday. With Arsenal likely to be on the front foot, there should be the space available to exploit on the break. We are much better equipped to deal with team looking to attack.

I sense an opportunity for Michail Antonio to rediscover his scoring boots in a 2-0 win. COYI!

Recent results have not generally been great for the Hammers at Arsenal. What will happen when these two teams in the top six clash on Wednesday night?

With just five points from our last five games it is perhaps surprising that West Ham are clinging on to fourth place in the Premier League table. The latest disappointment was the goalless draw at Burnley on Sunday. I write “disappointment” because, although in years gone by we would always have been happy with a point from a trip up north, we now hope (and expect perhaps) for three to maintain a challenge towards the top of the table. It was disappointing too in that we were the much better side creating all the chances, but came across a goalkeeper in Nick Pope determined to impress the watching England manager with some excellent saves from Diop, Benrahma and Bowen. And on a weekend where all the top clubs won games with the help of (in some cases) very soft penalty awards there was also a contentious incident where McNeil appeared to foul Dawson in the Burnley area but referee Scott did not award one and the referee on VAR duty (surprisingly to me, although I am biased) decided not to intervene.

Scoring goals is a bit of an issue away from home at the moment and Michail Antonio hasn’t managed to score in his last eight appearances. But he is not alone, and although he is perhaps expected to be our leading scorer others must chip in too. Although we have only managed one goal in our last three Premier games on our travels it is perhaps just a blip; after all if the league table was produced based on goals scored in this season to date we would be in fourth place by that measure too. I guess the disappointment comes from the cracking start to the season where we picked up 13 points from our first five away games with four wins and a draw, and this has been followed by just one point and one goal from the next three games away from the London Stadium.

Part of the reason for us retaining fourth place is down to the fact that the team who were closest to us just a few games ago (Wednesday’s opponents Arsenal) have had a relatively poor run too with just six points from their last five games (only one better than us) and have dropped a place in the table with Manchester United under new management having a resurgence and now just a point behind us. Manchester City and Liverpool are undoubtedly the form teams with a maximum 15 points from their last five league games, but they are followed (with a bit of a gap) by Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United who all have ten points from their last five, although Tottenham now have two games in hand over us and trail us by only three points.

Wednesday’s game is an important one for both ourselves and the Gunners in the quest to finish fourth – the top three will undoubtedly be the top three at the end of the season, such is their lead over the chasing pack and their consistency. Of course they can be beaten in odd games, as we have showed against both Liverpool and Chelsea, but over the course of a season those three will finish a long way clear I reckon.

Will last Sunday’s starting eleven be the same again against Arsenal? Perhaps yes, although I wonder if Fornals will return in place of Benrahma for this one? I’m not sure if any of the fringe players have done enough to make a compelling case to start. Vlasic is possibly the closest, but is he a better bet than Benrahma or Fornals? I’m not convinced but perhaps if he gets a chance of a run in the team at some stage he can show why we paid such a lot of money for him. I believe that Areola looks a great long-term prospect and once he gets his chance to be a starter in league games it may be difficult for Fabianski to get his place back. He has been an excellent goalkeeper for us but could he have done better with some of the goals we have conceded this season? And as modern keepers go, is his distribution perhaps a little below par at times?

The bookmakers have done their research based on past performances and Arsenal are favourites to win the game at odds of around 11/10. We are about 23/10 with the draw priced at around 5/2. A Bobby Zamora goal at the Emirates was enough for us to seal a 1-0 win in April 2007 which was the third win in a row against Arsenal, and enabled us to complete the double over them that season. But we have faced them on 28 occasions home and away since then and we have beaten them just twice, a 2-0 win on their patch on the opening day of the 2015-16 season (Kouyate and Zarate were the goalscorers that day), and 1-0 at the London Stadium in January 2019 with a goal from Declan Rice, his very first for us. There have been two 3-3 draws in those 28 games. What are the chances of a similar score tomorrow?

West Ham visit the Emirates Stadium – what chance of a repeat of 2015 with a 2-0 away win?

West Ham began the final season at the Boleyn Ground (2015-16) with home games against Leicester (who would go on to become surprise winners of the Premier League, and Bournemouth. Both games were lost. Outfoxed by the foxes, and picked off by the cherries. But before then, in the season opener we travelled the short distance across North London to face an Arsenal side that had won virtually everything in pre-season, and were being strongly tipped to produce a stronger challenge for the Premier League title than they had for a while. Against the odds we came away with two goals, a clean sheet and three points from an excellent performance. That was the game where the phrase about Oxford having Ozil in his pocket was heard. Where is Oxford now? And come to think of it, what about Ozil? What a start to the season we had and sitting in a Champions League spot too! Of course we came down to earth in true West Ham style with the defeats to Leicester and Bournemouth, and then we went to Anfield and beat Liverpool 3-0!  

Of course that’s what supporting West Ham is all about. As Chuck Berry sang, you never can tell. It’s the West Ham way. This season we began with a defeat at home to Newcastle. Many thought that this was our best chance of three points in the first seven games with a daunting run of fixtures to follow. Five years ago we hoped to have six points from our first four fixtures, but we all thought that they would come from the home games against Leicester and Bournemouth. None of us expected anything from the visits to Arsenal and Liverpool. But that’s where we were successful, so what are the odds of repeating our victory in the first away fixture this time around with three points just as we did then?

If I’m honest I would have to admit the odds are massively against, but they were then, too. Bookmakers have Arsenal at 1/2 to win and we are priced at 5/1 which is not as generous as you might think given the starts that the two teams have made this season. League tables produced when four sides have yet to play a game are fairly meaningless of course, but even at this stage Arsenal sit at the top and we are in the bottom three. Interestingly, there were no draws in the Premier League last weekend, so can we perhaps get a point? The odds for this happening are about 10/3, once again not very generous. But then again the bookies aren’t known for their generosity are they?

My attempt at watching the Newcastle game after an evening out “as live” just like the Likely Lads attempted in the 1960s failed miserably when I accidentally found out that the score early in the second half was 0-0. So I ignored the first half and watched the last 45 minutes. Apparently we were unfortunate to hit the woodwork more than once in the opening half, but I saw little in the second half to make me think we were going to win. Somehow it was inevitable that Wilson would score against us, but was his foot dangerously high? Some referees might have thought so. Should we have been awarded a penalty when the ball struck a Newcastle arm in the penalty area. Again some might have thought so. But neither the referee nor VAR adjudged in our favour, and we ended up pointless after conceding a second goal close to the end.

At least we progressed in the League (Carabao) Cup with a comfortable 3-0 win over Charlton on Tuesday. Those are the type of fixtures we have lost in the past, but by all accounts the players that were given a run-out looked good, albeit against lower league opposition. So Hull in the next round, and then if we overcome that obstacle then Fleetwood or Everton. This is the easiest competition to win, but we have never done so, although we have come close. Perhaps this our year? We are around 15th favourites to lift this trophy with odds ranging from around 28/1 up to 66/1.

It’s all very depressing at the moment. I’ve lost count of the unrealistic transfer targets – with the Tarkowski story reminding me very much of stories from the past where we are supposedly chasing players well beyond our reach with no chance of it happening. I don’t know how many players we’ve been linked with but I still haven’t noticed anyone arriving. I see that the board have now allegedly taken vows of silence because of leaks from within the club. And what of all the takeover stories. Who will our new owners be? Chinese? Middle Eastern? American? I read some of this stuff but don’t believe a word of any of it until it happens. And hardly anything ever does.

I won’t speculate on the starting eleven, as last week for the first time ever I was spot on. I doubt that it can happen again. I’m sure that there will be some changes, but add the names of the players who played in the Carabao Cup tie to those who started last week, pick 4 or 5 who must start, and then perm any of the remainder into some kind of formation and hope for the best.

Almost certainly everyone is convinced that we are destined to lose to Arsenal by two or three goals at least. But I’m going to stick my neck out for an unlikely repeat of the score in August 2015. A top 4 UK hit by Napoleon XIV from the summer of 1966 comes to mind as I write this, but stranger things have happened. Well, not very often I’ll grant you, but I’m going for a 2-0 away win. Those not very generous bookmakers will only give me around a paltry 35/1 on that happening. What are the chances?     

Batten Down The Hatches: Trouble Ahead As West Ham’s Defence Put To The Test

Quick, incisive, attacking flair meets slow, disorganised, accident-prone defence. What could possibly go wrong? Moyes and the Hammers have their work cut out to avoid crushing defeat.

If, as they say, you are as good as your last game, then Arsenal are in for a torrid time against a rejuvenated West Ham at the The Emirates on Saturday evening. Alternatively, using the more realistic yardstick of how the two teams performed in their opening games of the season and the only conclusion reached is that the Hammers could be in deep, deep trouble.

With another week gone by where the east London arrivals lounge has been closed for business, there are few options available to freshen up the side this weekend. Reinforcements continue to be desperately needed for three or four starting positions.

There are more than two weeks remaining before the ceremonial slamming shut of the transfer window and the Hammers should be one of several clubs looking to get more business done. With a few exceptions it has been quite a relatively cagey window so far, as changing financial realities hit the game at all levels.

This uncertainty does not to give a free pass to the dithering Board regarding our own lack of transfer engagement, though, as they once again give the impression that the opening of the window has taken them by surprise. Any thought that they might have prepared a recruitment master plan with detailed plans and scouting dossiers on well researched targets would be simple flight of fancy.  As usual we have been drip fed the annual long running transfer pursuit saga (Tarkowski on this occasion) who will end up going elsewhere (Leicester) for twice what we were hoping to pay. At the same time, a succession of young, promising talent gets snaffled by more imaginative clubs while we are not looking.

The official club narrative (and their mouthpieces) tell us of frenetic behind the scenes activity involving gallons of midnight oil being burned as bids are prepared and deals hammered out. No doubt there will eventually be money spent on oven-ready deals as the clock ticks down and the Black Friday sales or liquidation sales become apparent. Like the man who doesn’t buy his presents until Christmas Eve, we will get what’s left rather than what we need.

The West Ham performance against Newcastle was bitterly disappointing but not that surprising. It reminded me of that first post lockdown effort back in June against Wolves – enough possession but not knowing what to do with it. Will we now see a similar level of improvement? Or was the change in fortune back then more the result of opponents lacking season end commitment?

Until the deep seated issues in the squad of defensive frailty, lack of pace and the absence of midfield creativity are addressed, it is difficult to break free of the pessimism. The only consolation from last weekend was how bad Fulham and West Bromwich Albion looked. appearing even more clueless than we were.

I have seen plenty of debate over the last few days regarding playing Sebastien Haller in a front two, supported either by Michail Antonio or Andriy Yarmolenko. In an ideal world that makes a lot of sense. Haller did his best work at Eintracht Frankfurt in a two and looks a fish out of water in the lone striker role. The fly in that particular ointment, however, are the consequences that removing a player from midfield would have on the rest of the team’s setup. If there was more mobility and athleticism in midfield and if the defence wasn’t so abysmal then it could be a decent plan. Failing that it is an open invitation for opponents to overrun us.

Arsenal may no longer be the title contenders that they were, but they have chosen well in appointing Mikel Arteta as manager – the kind of progressive appointment we can only dream about. They will believe a return to Champion’s League football is a real possibility next season. Although not the strongest defensively, they have attacking flair in spades. The worrying thing from a West Ham point of view is the pace at which they attack. Any two of Willian, Pepe and Bellerin marauding down the right wing promises to make it a disastrous evening on the left side of our defence – the weakest of our weak positions. With no other options than Aaron Cresswell or Arthur Masuaku to provide resistance, I’m glad it’s not me not picking the team!

The game has all the hallmarks of being a very long ninety minutes for Hammer’s supporters. David Moyes will make a few changes from last week but none of them will be inspiring or carry much hope with it. Maybe Haller, Yarmolenko or Robert Snodgrass are all in with a shout of a start, but with damage limitation likely at the forefront of the manager’s thinking, it might all be academic. The objective may be to play for a goalless draw (there were no draws in the last round of games) but that plan often falls to pieces once a goal is conceded, allowing the floodgates to open.

It pains me to say this, but West Ham will lose this game – and probably quite heavily!   

Can West Ham end their run of consecutive defeats away from home?

The game against Southampton last Saturday was one of the most enjoyable visits to the London Stadium this season. The 3-1 victory was well deserved and a fair reflection of the game despite the visitors having the lion’s share of possession which can be a very misleading statistic. No points are awarded for having the ball; only the result counts. We had more shots, plus more shots on target, and this led to more goals and a very welcome three points. With some of the other teams at the foot of the table also picking up points the relegation battle is intensifying with just ten games of the season to play (Villa have eleven).

It still seems likely to me that the three relegation slots will be occupied by three of the six teams currently propping up the table, although Newcastle, who are just above the bottom half dozen, could still play a part with a poor run, especially if some of the lower teams collect more than a point a game average in the run-in.

It is at this stage of a season when you are involved in the skirmish to avoid the drop into the Championship that you start to look at the remaining fixtures for your club, and also for the others in contention, to assess your chances of staying up. I keep hearing pundits saying that West Ham have a tough set of fixtures until the end of the season so I thought I’d compare them to those of our competitors at the foot of the table.

Of course there is no scientific way to work out what will happen, and there are so many variables. But for a bit of fun the first assessment I made was to look at the current league positions of all the clubs that we still have to face and give each match a score based upon the degree of difficulty. So, for example, a fixture v Liverpool would score 1, Man. City 2 etc., down to Norwich 20. Therefore based on current league positions it would give an indicator of the difficulty of matches outstanding. This made interesting reading. The score for Villa had a proportional adjustment as they have 11 games remaining.

Newcastle 116, West Ham 111, Norwich 105, Watford 103, Brighton 83, Villa 82, Bournemouth 74.

Using this formula, it would suggest that Bournemouth, Villa and Brighton have the toughest run-in. Bournemouth and Villa already occupy relegation slots so would appear to be in the greatest danger, along with Norwich who still have points to make up. However this doesn’t take into account fixtures against teams who may be in a prominent league position but have little to play for. These may be easier games than those against clubs at the bottom fighting for their lives.

So, how many games do the bottom seven clubs have against teams who are also in the bottom seven? Are these games tougher or easier? Certainly getting three points in these games in some ways is more important because it means that the opposition (who are the key rivals) don’t get any.

Newcastle 5, West Ham 4, Norwich 3, Watford 3, Brighton 2, Villa 2, Bournemouth 1

And will the FA Cup have any influence? Both Norwich and Newcastle are still involved at this stage. Will their involvement hinder or improve their chances of avoiding the drop?

Liverpool and Manchester City are way ahead of the rest of the league, so games against those two sides might be the toughest of all. But they might not if those teams relax because of positions already certain or involvement in Europe. Newcastle, Brighton, and Bournemouth still have to face both clubs. Watford, Villa and Norwich still have an outstanding fixture against one of them, whereas West Ham don’t have to face either in their final ten games. Sometimes, fixtures against mid-table sides with little to play for are the ones that you want in the last few games of the season.

So what does all this prove? Well, nothing really I just had a look for a bit of fun. Of course, as I said there are still so many variables in the remainder of the season and I haven’t even mentioned coronavirus yet.

One interesting fact is that the bottom 7 all have away games this weekend, and I believe the following weekend they will all be at home. Based on league positions alone then Bournemouth would appear to have the hardest game at Liverpool (1st), Villa are at Leicester (3rd), Brighton are at Wolves (6th), Norwich at Sheffield United (8th), West Ham at Arsenal (10th), Watford at Palace (12th), and Newcastle at Southampton (13th). I guess that we would all be happy with one point, and any team that picks up a win would gain an important advantage over the others.

The current form table (last 5 matches) has Bournemouth 7pts, West Ham, Watford, Villa and Norwich all 4 points, Newcastle and Brighton 3 points. Newcastle and Brighton are the only teams not to have won at least one game in the last five, but conversely they have more points currently than the other 5.

Current relegation odds vary slightly from bookmaker to bookmaker, but the following are average figures. Norwich 1/12, Villa 4/7, Bournemouth 8/11, West Ham 7/4, Brighton 9/4, Watford 3/1, and Newcastle 6/1.

So, having looked through all this, what do I think will happen? Lots can happen in the weeks ahead, but my feeling at this stage is that Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth will be playing Championship football next season, and apart from those, Brighton will be very involved in the scrap to survive. In my opinion West Ham and Watford will pull away from trouble, and Newcastle probably have enough points in the bag already. But we can never be sure with our team though, can we? I’ll probably need to review my prediction soon!

Arsenal are not the team they once were and are no longer anywhere near the invincibles of a few years ago. However we should not underestimate them, as although they do have defensive frailties, they are more than capable of scoring goals. My spies tell me that Tomas Soucek has made an excellent recovery from his injured hip and is likely to play a part. Will the manager keep the same team that played so well to defeat Southampton last week? Or will he revert to a more defensive formation? We have lost our last five Premier League games away from home, so I suppose we should be grateful if we can get anything at all from this game. It’s about time we won another away game. Perhaps we can sneak it 2-1?

After collecting from a 90/1 bet on West Ham last weekend, I’ll give the bookmakers a chance to get some of their money back! The bets I quite like the look of for this game are:

West Ham to win the game – 9/2;

West Ham to win 2-1 – 16/1;

West Ham to win 2-1 with Bowen scoring the first goal as he did last week – 110/1;

West Ham to win with both teams to score with both Antonio and Bowen on the scoresheet and Ogbonna to receive a card – 150/1.

All longshots but a bit of fun to add to my enjoyment of the game (I hope!)

We’re Gunner Score One More Than You. West Ham Look To Maintain Momentum By Outscoring Arsenal In Saturday’s Derby Game

Can the Hammer’s new found sense of optimism created by last weekend’s three point success against the Saints survive a visit to The Emirates?

Taken in isolation, the renewed sense of optimism following last week’s win against Southampton seems rather misplaced. From being a team that many felt would struggle to pick up any points at all before the clocks went forward, there is now talk of plundering points from each and every game. That includes upcoming fixtures against our three snooty London neighbours, who are nominally part of the big six but not as good as they used to be, or so the theory goes.

There was a time when Arsenal were not just big six, but half of the big two, alongside Manchester United. As with Ferguson at Old Trafford, however, Arsenal have struggled so far to break free from the shadow of former long term manager, Arsene Wenger. Perhaps that is also the Hammers problem, becalmed after the fleeting balmy days of super Johnny Lyall.

In truth, Arsenal problems began midway through the Wenger reign, when he failed to find effective replacements for his dogged no-nonsense central defenders. The strategy of recruiting attacking players from the swankiest showrooms but picking up defenders from the breaker’s yard has persisted to this day.  New manager, Mikel Arteta does seems to have a credible plan, but it is fair to say that his team, with its focus on youth, is very much a work in progress. Will he be given the time to see it through?

It is the Gunner’s sloppiness at the back (although it has improved in recent weeks) that will give the Hammers cause for hope. If West Ham can show the same intent, work rate  and energy levels as they did last week, they will be sure to cause problems. The combination of Michail Antonio, Sebastien Haller and Jarrod Bowen are certainly capable of unsettling the Arsenal back-line. That being said, Arsenal’s attacking players also have more than enough quality to breach the Hammer’s error prone rearguard.

All this supposes that David Moyes is prepared to continue with the more enterprising line-up and style that we saw last Saturday. Any change to the starting line-up would be disappointing as well as unpopular – further ammunition for the claims of negativity. The prospect of two teams endeavouring to outscore each other through attacking bravado and defensive inadequacy would be welcome relief from the spectre of an impending virus pandemic for a couple of hours. An away win can often be the best medicine.

In the continued absence of Tomas Soucek, the weakest link in the West Ham armour will be in central midfield where Mark Noble will struggle to keep pace with those around him. As a consequence, Declan Rice will be forced to play deep, almost as an auxiliary centre back, and be prevented from making forward runs. Rice’s forward surges are an ability that sets him apart from many other holding midfield players in the Premier League – particularly English ones.

One player who will not feature this weekend (or maybe ever again) is former Gunner, Jack Wilshere. It’s a shame that his time as a Hammer has been so dismal but I don’t understand the personal abuse that he frequently gets on social media. I’m sure he would much rather be on the pitch than in the treatment room. It was clearly very foolish of the club to give him such a lengthy contract in the circumstances but that is not his fault..

This week’s referee is Martin Atkinson from West Yorkshire.  Atkinson was previously in charge of the Hammer’s win at Southampton in December last year. On VAR duty will be Kevin Friend. According to the GivemeSport website, West Ham would be six points better off and well clear of the relegation places but for VAR decisions going against them. Wishful thinking probably!

The pundits take differing views this week. Lawro has gone for his favoured 1-1 draw while former Gunner, Charlie Nicholas has opted for a repeat of last season, with a 3-1 home win. Away to Arsenal has not been a happy hunting ground over the years. In fact, the records both home and away to Arsenal are poor. The last victory at The Emirates was, of course, the opening day of the 2015/16 season and West Ham have lost each of the four away meetings to take place since then. I read somewhere that Moyes has never beaten Arsenal in 15 attempts – so the omens are not good. Still how dull following football would be if we couldn’t choose to ignore the facts. With a positive attitude we easily have enough talent available now to make a game of it. That is exactly what we want to see. It is not impossible that we can come away with something from the game and I will go honours even at 2 goals apiece. COYI!