Predictions – Page 5 – Under The Hammers

The Lawro Challenge – Week 9

A suspicion of foul play as the predictor battle with Lawro hots up.

Lawro Crystal Ball There is something very humbling in trying to come to terms with the fact that you are a worse forecaster of Premier League results than Lawro. In fact I am becoming quite suspicious of the current standings to the extent that I believe that my predictions may have been compromised by Russian hackers. There is still a long way to go but I need to consider whether or not I will accept the results once the counting has finished.

In Week 8, Rich scored seven points, Geoff four points, and Lawro narrowed the gap at the top slightly with eight points. This week’s predictions are below and show unanimous certainty that the Hammers will be three points better off at the final whistle on Saturday..

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 7 weeks	60	45	50
Score in week 8	7	4	8
Total after 8 weeks	67	49	58

Predictions – Week 9
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
SATURDAY
Bournemouth v Tottenham	2-2	1-2	1-1
Arsenal v Middlesbrough	3-0	4-0	3-0
Burnley v Everton	1-2	0-1	1-1
Hull v Stoke	1-1	1-2	0-2
Leicester v Crystal Palace	2-1	2-0	2-1
Swansea v Watford	2-1	2-0	1-1
West Ham v Sunderland	3-1	3-0	2-1
Liverpool v WBA	3-0	2-0	3-0
SUNDAY
Man.City v Southampton	2-1	3-1	2-0
Chelsea v Man.Utd.	2-1	0-0	1-1

The Lawro Challenge – Week 8

Where we attempt to out-predict the BBC predictor.

Lawro Crystal Ball After seven weeks Rich has extended his lead at the top to ten points. Both Rich and Geoff scored eight points in week 7, compared to Lawro’s six points. Rich managed 5 correct results plus one correct score, Geoff had 2 correct results plus two correct scores, and Lawro brought up the rear this week with 3 correct results and one correct score. In our competition we award one point for a correct result and three points for a correct score.

On the BBC website Lawro has now lost three of his seven weekly prediction encounters. Firstly he was beaten by WWE star and Hollywood actor, Dave Bautista, who hadn’t heard of some of the Premier League teams, then it was the turn of the world number one darts player, Michael van Gerwen to beat him, and finally in the last round of matches he lost to comedian and actor, Elis James.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 6 weeks	52	37	44
Score in week 7	8	8	6
Total after 7 weeks	60	45	50

Predictions – Week 8
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
SATURDAY
Chelsea v Leicester	2-1	2-2	2-0
Arsenal v Swansea	3-1	3-0	2-0
Bournemouth v Hull	2-1	1-0	2-0
Man City v Everton	2-1	3-1	1-1
Stoke v Sunderland	2-0	1-1	2-1
West Brom v Tottenham	0-2	1-3	0-2
Crystal Palace v West Ham	2-2	1-0	1-1
SUNDAY
Middlesbrough v Watford	2-1	1-1	1-1
Southampton v Burnley	2-0	3-0	2-0
MONDAY
Liverpool v Man Utd	2-1	2-2	2-0

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 11 – Let’s Have Another Go at Goals Galore

What to do with all the loose change from down the back of the sofa?

Fancy A Bet Last week we tried out the Betfred “Goals Galore” bonus coupon that pays fixed odds based on both teams scoring at least one goal in a match. Depending upon the number of games you choose, fixed odds are paid at varying rates. On their Goals Galore Bonus coupon, which we tried, they pay 9/2 for 3 correct, 9/1 for 4 correct, and 16/1 for 5 correct, going right up to 5000/1 for 15 correct.

We selected the following games:

Bournemouth v Everton
Brighton v Barnsley
Bolton v Bradford
QPR v Birmingham
Fulham v Bristol City

It would have been difficult to have made worse selections! Despite both teams scoring in 31 out of the 46 games in the four English Leagues we only managed to select one match where both teams scored (at QPR), and even managed to select the only 0-0 draw out of all the games (at Bolton).

But we’ll have another go at this and try two batches of four games, each at 9-1, and then all eight games at 100-1. So we need both teams to score in the following games:

Group One:
West Ham v Middlesbrough
Leeds v Barnsley
Preston v Villa
Sheffield W v Brighton

Group Two:
Reading v Derby
Rotherham v Newcastle
Bury v Scunthorpe
Chesterfield v Bradford C

One point stake on each group, and one point stake on all eight games. Total 3 points.

And to finish I am convinced that West Ham will end their poor run in the game against Middlesbrough, so I’ll stake 5 points at 11/10 on a victory for us.

The balance at the start of the day was 111.1, so with a total of 8 points staked we are now down to 103.1. If everything goes our way today (a very long shot) we could win 131.5 points, but we’ll be up on the day with a West Ham victory on its own.

What are the chances?

The Lawro Challenge – Week 7

Attempting to out-predict the BBC predictor and in some cases failing miserably.

Lawro Crystal Ball We have only had six weeks so far, so if we equate this challenge to a 38 lap race (9.5 miles on a running track), then we have only completed 1.5 miles so far. We therefore have a long way to go, but the field is already beginning to be stretched. Rich is obviously intent on running the sprint finish out of the other two by setting a fast pace and has already opened up quite a lead. But has he set off too quickly? We all remember the tale of the hare and the tortoise.

On the BBC website Lawro has now lost two of his six weekly prediction encounters. Firstly he was beaten by WWE star and Hollywood actor, Dave Bautista, who hadn’t heard of some of the Premier League teams, and then last week it was the turn of the world number one darts player, Michael van Gerwen to beat him. To boost his confidence this week they’ve put him up against comedian and actor, Elis James. James took part last year and only got one result and no scores correct to give him the honour of being the lowest scorer in the whole season.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 5 weeks	43	33	36
Score in week 6	9	4	8
Total after 6 weeks	52	37	44

Predictions – Week 7
FRIDAY
Everton v Crystal Palace	3-2	1-1	2-1
SATURDAY
Swansea v Liverpool	1-3	1-2	0-2
Hull v Chelsea	1-3	0-3	0-2
Sunderland v West Brom	1-1	1-0	2-1
Watford v Bournemouth	1-1	2-0	1-1
West Ham v Middlesbrough	4-1	3-0	2-0
SUNDAY
Man.Utd v Stoke	3-1	3-0	2-0
Leicester v Southampton	2-2	2-1	2-1
Tottenham v Man.City	2-2	1-2	2-2
Burnley v Arsenal	1-3	0-3	0-2

The Lawro Challenge – Week 6

Whose tea leaves make the most sense in the latest round of match predictions.

Lawro Crystal Ball Last weekend we were very close with Rich and Lawro each predicting seven correct results, whereas Geoff just took the honours with five correct results plus a correct score. Rich continues to lead with 43, with Lawro on 36 and Geoff on 33.

Speaking ahead of the latest round of matches Geoff said that he was “delighted to have regained ground. A corner has been turned and will now look to make great strides, change gears and narrow the deficit even further before the international break. This massive result provides a firm foundation to build on as I redouble efforts to kick start my campaign.”

This week’s predictions below:

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 4 weeks	36	25	29
Score in week 5	7	8	7
Total after 5 weeks	43	33	36

Predictions – Week 6
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
SATURDAY
Man Utd v Leicester	2-1	1-1	2-1
Bournemouth v Everton	2-2	1-2	1-1
Liverpool v Hull	4-0	3-0	3-0
Middlesbrough v Tottenham	1-2	1-3	0-2
Stoke v West Brom	1-0	2-1	1-1
Sunderland v Crystal Palace	1-1	2-1	2-1
Swansea v Man City	1-3	0-3	0-2
Arsenal v Chelsea	2-1	2-1	1-1
SUNDAY
West Ham v Southampton	2-1	2-0	2-1
MONDAY
Burnley v Watford	2-2	1-2	2-1

The Lawro Challenge – Week 5

Where we attempt to out-predict the BBC predictor.

Lawro Crystal Ball Last weekend saw me extending my lead at the top of the Lawro prediction league to seven points. Both Geoff and Lawro each managed three correct results for a total of three points, whereas I had two correct results plus two matches where I also predicted the correct scores for a total of eight points.

I have to laugh when I see the BBC predictor competition and the opponents they line up to pit their prediction wits against Lawro. Lawro actually had previously won all three legs so far this season out-predicting such expert pundits as Athletico Mince, Laura Trott, and Blossoms! But this week he managed to lose to the former WWE star and Hollywood actor Dave Bautista. Dave actually admitted when making his predictions that he hadn’t even heard of some of our Premier League teams, and predicted 5-0 in the Manchester derby! He still managed to beat Lawro though. Priceless.

But only 4 weeks out of the 38 have been completed, therefore there are still 340 matches to predict. Let’s see how we get on this week.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 3 weeks	28	22	26
Score in week 4	8	3	3
Total after 4 weeks	36	25	29

Predictions – Week 5
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Chelsea v Liverpool	2-1	2-2	0-2
Hull v Arsenal	1-2	0-3	0-2
Leicester v Burnley	2-0	3-0	2-0
Man C v Bournemouth	3-0	2-0	3-0
WBA v WHU	2-2	1-2	1-1
Everton v Middlesbrough	2-0	2-1	2-0
Watford v Man U	1-2	1-1	1-2
Palace v Stoke	1-0	2-0	1-1
Southampton v Swansea	2-1	1-1	2-0
Spurs v Sunderland	4-0	3-0	2-0

Matchday: West Ham v Watford

What can we expect as the Hammers take on the Hornets with a returning Dimitri Payet.

West Ham Watford The early season international break, transfer dealings extending past the early games and players returning late due to the Euros and injuries give today’s game the feel of another new beginning; not just for West Ham but also for other clubs including today’s visitors, Watford.

Going in to our game against the Hornets last April there was a lot of publicity about how few penalties had been awarded to West Ham compared with other teams at the top end of the table. Watford, with Premier League safety assured, fielded a weakened side due to their approaching FA Cup semi-final appearance with Crystal Palace. Anti-grappling referee, Mike Dean, duly obliged the critics by awarding the Hammers two penalties; both ably converted by Mark Noble in a largely comfortable 3-1 victory. A late Deeney penalty for Watford was saved by Adrian.

“With the injuries it was tough. Now hopefully a few of them are back. It’s not a new start for us but with the players who are back I am very optimistic.”

– Slaven Bilic

For Watford, defying the pundits to secure a second season in the Premier League while reaching a cup semi-final was not enough for the difficult to please owners who replaced Spanish (Hugh Laurie lookalike) manager Quique Flores in the summer by itinerant Italian coach Walter Mazzarri. Mazzarri has since embarked on a thorough overhaul of his squad which has seen them pick up just a single point so far this season.

Head to Head

West Ham have won 23 of 37 League and Cup encounters with Watford since the first senior meeting in 1978. At Home, the Hammers have won 13 out of 18 losing just 3 times, 2 of which a month apart in early 2007 under Alan Curbishley. The full record is:

	P	W	D	L	F	A	Sequence
Home	18	13	2	3	19	16	WWLLDW
Away	19	10	4	5	25	22	DWDLWL
	37	23	6	8	44	38

Team News

According to Physio Room the injury list is at an all time low with just Carroll (due back 17 Sep), Ayew (Nov 27), Cresswell (Nov 26) and Sakho (Oct 1) still unavailable. All the signs are that Dimitri Payet will make his first start of the season and that we will see the striking debut of Simone Zaza up front. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the midfield is set up and whether Manuel Lanzini also gets a start or whether Havard Nordtveit returns as a more defensive option despite failing to impress so far. I suspect Lanzini will be on the bench, along with Sofiane Feghouli, for this one.

“We can say that from this week the job that I perform can be judged. I like to work with a group that I choose myself, and I’m very happy with this one.”

– Walter Mazzarri

Slaven Bilic may also prefer to bring in Alvaro Arbeloa (assuming he is deemed to be match fit) at right back but personally I believe Sam Byram has done enough to keep his place and would be unlucky to miss out.

Watford have no injury problems. Much of last season’s heroics were founded on the goals of Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney but neither have scored this term (yet!). Deeney is a fine professional but looked off the pace when I watched Watford lose to Arsenal recently. The Hornets certainly improved after the break in that game after the introduction of new signings Isaac Success (great name) and Roberto Pereyra, both of whom looked to carry a threat. On the other hand; Kaboul is always worth a goal to the opposition; former Hammer Behrami good for a yellow card and defenders Cathcart and Britos sound like they belong in old TV sitcoms.

Here is my predicted line up in a 2-1 victory:

Team v Watford

Man in the Middle

Today’s referee is Martin Atkinson from West Yorkshire. Atkinson officiated 3 West Ham games last season; away victories at Arsenal and Bournemouth and the home draw with West Bromwich Albion. Atkinson is known for his reluctance to brandish red cards and award penalties.

The Lawro Challenge: Week 4

Where we attempt to show Lawro how predictions should really be done.

Lawro Crystal Ball I am currently living in Asia and, at just a shade under 6 foot, happen to be rather taller than most of the local population. This is just as well, for at the moment, I am unable to look anybody straight in the eye. The reason for this discomfort is that it seems I am worse at predicting the results of Premier League matches than even Lawro.

However, fresh from warm weather training during the international break I am determined to claw back some of the disadvantage between myself and the early pacemakers. This week’s naval-gazings are shown below and see Lawro depart from his usual cautious tradition by actually predicting a team to score more than two goals. In the circumstances, I am quietly confident that my redoubled efforts will see me far better placed following this current round of matches.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Cumulative Points	28	22	26
Saturday
Man United v Man City	1-1	1-0	1-0
Arsenal v Southampton	2-1	2-0	3-0
Bournemouth v WBA	1-0	1-1	1-1
Burnley v Hull	2-2	1-0	2-1
Middlesbro v Palace	2-1	2-2	0-2
Stoke v Tottenham	1-1	1-2	1-1
West Ham v Watford	3-1	2-1	2-0
Liverpool v Leicester	2-1	1-1	2-1
Sunday
Swansea v Chelsea	1-2	0-2	0-2
Sunderland v Everton	1-1	1-2	1-1

* Our scoring system is one point for a correct results plus two bonus points for the correct score.

5 Things From West Ham at Citeh

Observations and talking points from our defeat at the Etihad.

The Half Time Pep Talk

Managers and coaches do their best to bellow and point out instructions from their technical areas during as the game progresses but it is questionable how much of that actually gets through to the players. Half-time is generally the best opportunity to throw things around the dressing room to get the player’s attention. At half time on Sunday we were on the ropes and a crushing defeat was on the cards. City were playing well and at a high tempo and we seemed to be doing everything possible to help them out.
After the break some Slavic wisdom and a minor rearrangement of personnel and it was a different game. We started to compete and City were no longer free to strut their billion pound stuff. We couldn’t quite do enough to snatch an unlikely point but the performance was far more encouraging.

Unnatural Formations

In the Under The Hammers Match report Richard Bennett provides an excellent summary of the shortcomings in our line-up, formation and first half performance. Whether it was 3 or 5 at the back or some form of hybrid the tactic misfired badly with City’s mobile and pacey forward players allowed all the space and ball that they could want. The task wasn’t made easy due to injuries but the selected side lacked balance and we far too often conceded unforced possession. If Lanzini was unable to last a full game then why not play him first half rather than second? He would have been a better option than Tore who has a lot to do to prove himself.

Once we changed to two proper full backs we looked far more compact and threatening and Antonio’s goal came early enough to strive for a second. The momentum was lost after Aguero’s Costa moment caused Reid to leave the pitch and we went 4 at the back. I have read since that Slaven Bilic was about to make the change anyway which I find puzzling.
There are differences of opinion but I am certain that Aguero deserved a red card. The unfortunate thing with retrospective punishment is that it is other teams that benefit. Better if he was banned for the next 3 times that we play against him.

In that Round Mr Collins you have No Passes

I am sure we all love Ginge’s commitment to the cause and that the way that he is prepared to throw his body in the way regardless of the consequences. From a defensive point of view these qualities allow me to overlook his occasional rushes of blood and bloopers. However, he has to be one of the worse passers of the ball that I have ever seen from a professional footballer. This would not be such a problem if it didn’t seem to part of our game plan to use him as a major distribution outlet every time he plays.

There was one occasion in the first half where we had a free-kick inside the City half and, let’s face it, an industrial route one goal was the best we could hope for at that point. Yet rather than lump it forward Noble decided to play it backwards to Ginge; from where it probably found its way back to keeper or out of play. I really don’t understand what the players expected to happen. A defenders prime responsibility is to defend (and Ginge does this well enough) but when he has the ball he should play it short to someone who knows what to do with it. Whether we have the right players with right attributes to make themselves available as an outlet then becomes the issue.

Arthur Masuaku ‘E’s Alright

I like Arthur Masuaku. Over the course of the whole game he was our best player against Manchester City. I love his energy, his dribbles, his beard and his thousand yard stare. On these early performances he looks an excellent signing and will be stiff competition when Cresswell is fit again. He did exceptionally well in creating the goal for Antonio.

His battle with Sterling was one of the high points of the match and a less lenient referee may well have given him a second yellow (even though I thought the first rather harsh). Mr Mariner made amends by calling over Mark Noble to tell him it was Arthur’s last warning and then booking the captain for dissent instead.

Pay-et Forward?

The Payet situation is a strange one. His continued absence with little explanation has fuelled a host of non-specific transfer speculation which even Paul Merson sobered up long enough to posit upon. The club through ace tweeter dg have strenuously denied any ulterior motives for Payet’s non appearance.

Now it appears that he is off to join up with France squad for their friendly against Italy. If his ‘knock’ is so serious that we didn’t want to rush him back how is it wise for him to join the national squad? Have we made a secret deal with him to give him a longer rest in return for staying put?

The Lawro Challenge Week 3

We continue to do battle with the thatch headed one.

Lawro Crystal Ball Lawro may be “steamrollering” his invited guests, band members, comedians etc. (none of whom seem to be particularly skilled in the art of predicting football matches) in the first two weeks of the season but he’s not having his own way against us. This week on the BBC website he faces Laura Trott, the well-known football tipster.

Early days of course, but last week’s scores were Rich 8, Lawro 8, and Geoff 5.

This makes the cumulative totals after two weeks, Rich 17, Lawro 14, Geoff 13.

This week’s Lawro:-

SATURDAY	Rich	Lawro	Geoff
Tottenham v Liverpool	2-1	1-1	2-1
Chelsea v Burnley	3-0	2-0	3-1
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth	1-0	2-1	2-2
Everton v Stoke	2-1	2-0	2-0
Leicester v Swansea	2-1	2-0	2-0
Southampton v Sunderland	2-0	1-1	1-0
Watford v Arsenal	1-2	0-2	0-3
Hull v Man Utd	1-3	0-2	0-2
SUNDAY
West Brom v Middlesbrough	1-1	2-0	2-1
Man City v West Ham	4-1	2-0	3-1