Author: Richard Bennett

West Ham’s Chances of Survival – The Under the Hammers Supercomputer Predicts

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, has been called into action to predict what might be necessary in the run-in for West Ham to retain their Premier League status. Geoff’s latest article confirmed that Deep Block has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42. 

I asked Deep Block to consider the situation again and it ran thousands more permutations and it once again confirmed the belief that 42 points is needed to guarantee survival. It did however concede the Douglas Adams influence on the total needed and when asked if there was any leeway it confirmed that 38 points might be enough and now prefers to give a range of 38-42 points given the unpredictable nature of football. I asked it to consider West Ham’s chances of reaching the lower end of the range and this is what it came up with:

West Ham’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures (2025/26)

West Ham have 10 points from our last 6 games. Here are our final 12 league matches, with a prediction for each based on current form, opponent quality, and recent trends. Of course the current form of our opponents may be different at the time we come to play them:

DateOpponentVenuePrediction & Rationale
21 FebBournemouthHomeDraw – Bournemouth are in good form, 9th in the table and no team in the league can better their 14 points from their last 6 games, but West Ham’s home advantage could earn a point. This is one of the games where the difference between a loss, a draw and a win could be massive in the final analysis.
28 FebLiverpoolAwayLoss – Last season’s champions Liverpool are having a poor season by their standards, 6th in table, but are strong at Anfield; historically a tough fixture for West Ham. They have 8 points from their last 6 games. A point in this game is unlikely but if achieved it would be an added bonus in the fight for survival.
4 MarFulhamAwayDraw – Fulham are inconsistent, 12th in table, with just 2 wins and 4 defeats in their last 6 games; West Ham could grind out a point, but this is one of the six away games where we have the best chances for a win.
14 MarManchester CityHomeLoss – City are title contenders, second in the table and closing on Arsenal; they have 11 points in their last 6 games; West Ham will be big underdogs. We always lose this game and this season’s fixture is likely to have the same result. An unlikely point would be brilliant – Arsenal will be cheering us on.
22 MarAston VillaAwayLoss – Villa are flying high, currently third this season but only 8 points from last 6 games; a difficult away trip, but a point might just be possible although statistically unlikely.
11 AprWolvesHomeWin – Wolves are struggling, bottom of the league 17 points from safety with no chance of avoiding the drop; a must-win for West Ham and a realistic three points, despite the adverse result and display in the away fixture.
18 AprCrystal PalaceAwayDraw – Palace are unpredictable, 13th in the league with just 5 points from their last six games; a point is possible, but like the away game at Fulham this is one of the six away games where we have to hope for a win.
25 AprEvertonHomeWin – Everton are in good form, 8th in the table with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games; West Ham’s home form could be decisive. It won’t be easy but at this stage three points will be critical if all goes to plan.
2 MayBrentfordAwayDraw – Brentford are solid, an unexpected 7th in the current table and good form with 10 points in the last 6 games, but West Ham can take a point if we defend well. We meet in the fifth round of the FA Cup at the London Stadium before this game is played.
9 MayArsenalHomeLoss – Arsenal, top of the league, but faltering a little with 9 points from their last 6 games; they are likely to still be in the close title race; it will be tough for West Ham. This is an unlikely game to pick up anything unless Arsenal’s nerves are shredded at this point; they have been known to falter and panic as the season approaches a climax.
17 MayNewcastle UnitedAwayLoss – Newcastle are inconsistent but generally strong at home; but just 7 points from their last 6 games. West Ham will be underdogs, but at this stage anything from the game could be vital.
24 MayLeeds UnitedHomeWin – We will know what we need to do at this point if we are still able to survive. Leeds may still be involved but may well be safe by then; West Ham could take advantage if that is the case.
Summary of Points Projection
  • Predicted Results: 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
  • Estimated Points: 13 points from the final 12 matches

As West Ham currently have 24 points, this projection would see them finish on 37 points—right on the bottom edge of the predicted survival threshold of 38-42 points.

Key Insights
  • Crucial Matches: Home games against Wolves, Everton, and Leeds (and possibly Bournemouth despite their current form) are the ‘must-wins’. Points gained in other games will likely decide West Ham’s fate.
  • Tough Run-in: Fixtures against 8 teams currently in the top 10 are challenging, and 5 games against top 7 sides Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford and Villa especially so. Points from these five are very unlikely, but an odd one or two could be crucial.

Margin for Error: Slim—any slip-ups in crucial games could be fatal. Deep Block highlights the seven most crucial games are those against Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds. At least 14 points from those will probably be the minimum required unless some unexpected points can be gained from away trips to Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa, and home games against the top two, Arsenal and Manchester City

  • Current Record: West Ham have played 26 matches, earning 24 points, which is an average of 0.92 points per match.
  • Recent Form: In their last 6 league matches, West Ham have picked up 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats), which is an improved rate of 1.67 points per match.
  • Other Supercomputer Projections: Multiple models predict West Ham will finish with 36 points and in 18th place, which would mean relegation.
  • Required Rate for Survival: To reach the likely minimum safety threshold of 38 points, West Ham need at least 14 points from their final 12 matches—1.17 points per match. To hit the higher estimate of 42 points, we’d need 18 points or 1.5 points per match.
Fixture Analysis
  • West Ham’s remaining 12 fixtures include 8 matches against teams currently in the top half (top 10) of the table, with just 4 fixtures against teams in the bottom 10 (Fulham, Palace, Leeds and Wolves)
  • Our recent “upswing” (back-to-back wins before a narrow loss to Chelsea, and then a win against Burnley and draw against Manchester United) suggests we could maintain a realistic chance of survival if form continues. How important could the 20 points dropped from winning positions turn out to be?
Comparison with Other Relegation Teams

Burnley

  • Current Points: 18 from 26 matches (0.69 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 20 points from 12 matches (1.67 points per match) to reach 38 points—an unlikely jump given their form.
  • Projection: Burnley will finish with 28–32 points and be relegated.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

  • Current Points: 10 from 27 matches (0.37 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 28 points from 11 matches (2.55 points per match) for 38 points—virtually impossible but still mathematically possible.
  • Projection: Overwhelming favourites for relegation, predicted to finish bottom.

Nottingham Forest

  • Current Points: 27 from 26 matches (1.04 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 11 points from 12 matches (0.92 points per match) for 38 points—achievable just if current form (9 points from 6 games) holds.
  • Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Tottenham

  • Current Points: 29 from 26 matches (1.12 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 9 points from 12 matches (0.75 points per match) for 38 points—a very real risk of relegation unless recent slide in form (2 points from 6 games) and instability improves.
  • Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Leeds United

  • Current Points: 30 from 26 matches (1.15 points per match).
  • Required Rate: Needs 8 points from 12 matches (0.67 points per match) for 38 points—favourable position.
  • Projection: Most models predict survival, with Leeds finishing just above the drop zone.
Survival Chances: Odds and Supercomputer Predictions
  • Relegation Odds: Wolves and Burnley are overwhelming favourites for relegation. West Ham are the next most likely, with odds reflecting their precarious position but also their recent improvement. Tottenham and Forest are the next most likely with the bookmakers.
  • Our Supercomputer, Deep Block, Forecasts: West Ham are predicted to finish 18th with 37 points, just below the safety line. Burnley and Wolves are expected to go down, with Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds narrowly surviving.
Conclusion
  • Our survival chances are better than Burnley and Wolves, but slightly worse than Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. But taking into account the unpredictability of results it is too close to call at the moment.
  • West Ham’s realistic points per match is 1.0–1.2 if recent form continues, but we need to maintain or improve this to survive. Key matches will be decisive. If West Ham can win those, survival is possible, but the margin for error is slim. West Ham will likely need at least 38 points to guarantee Premier League survival this season, but a safer target would be 40–42 points given the competitiveness of the relegation battle. This means we must secure 14–18 points from our final 12 matches. Anything less could leave our fate dependent on other teams’ results.

Cup Dreams or Banana Skins? West Ham visit Burton in Classic FA Cup Fourth Round Contest

As a West Ham fan, the build-up to this Saturday’s FA Cup Fourth Round tie against Burton Albion is a familiar mix of anticipation and nerves. Our league campaign has been a struggle so far, with the team sitting 18th in the Premier League and every point feeling increasingly precious. Yet, there’s a sense that the FA Cup could be the spark we need to turn our season around. I’ve read some that say forget the cup and concentrate on staying in the Premier League. I don’t agree.  

Saying this, our recent form has shown signs of life and we are not down yet. 2026 started badly with a comprehensive 3-0 defeat at bottom of the table Wolves, one of our worst performances in years (and there have been a few!). Following this three days later the home defeat to Forest (unlucky as it was it some respects) suggested that our chances of escaping the drop were disappearing fast. The cup win over QPR, even if it took extra time, seemed to inject some much-needed confidence into the squad, and we began to feel the mood shifting ever so slightly.

The last five games since then have yielded 10 points in the league with away wins at Tottenham and Burnley, a home win over Sunderland, a 3-2 defeat at Chelsea after leading 2-0 at half-time, and Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United with their equaliser coming in the sixth minute of time added on. The board indicated seven minutes. Where did that come from? Of course we might have been happy with the prospect of one point before the game but Sesko’s finish was a body blow and it seemed like two points lost rather than one gained. It means we have now regained sole leadership of one particular league table – points dropped from a winning position – we are now at the top with 20. If just some of those leads had been retained how different the league table would look now.

Of course, as any West Ham supporter knows, the FA Cup is never straightforward for us. Our history in the competition in my lifetime is varied, three-time winners (the last one coming in 1980 over 45 years ago), and twice runners-up, but it’s also littered with those infamous “banana skins.” Losses to the likes of AFC Wimbledon, Wigan, and West Brom in recent years have left scars alongside those from years gone by – the list is endless – Huddersfield, Stoke, Plymouth, Blackburn, Swindon, Huddersfield again, Coventry, Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Huddersfield (for a third time!), Hull, Hereford, Newport County, Wrexham, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR, Norwich, Torquay, Barnsley, Luton, QPR (again), Grimsby, Wrexham (again), Swansea, Tranmere, Sheffield Wednesday (again), Sheffield Wednesday (for a 3rd time), Nottingham Forest, and Sheffield United. Those are just some that I can recall from my many years of following the team and to them can be added a similar number of League Cup exits to lower league opposition. There’s always that nagging worry that we might slip up once again.

Burton Albion, for their part, are having a tough time in League One, sitting 21st and fighting relegation. Their league form has been poor, with no wins in their last five, but the FA Cup has brought out a different side of them. Fourteen goals in three cup games is no fluke, and they’ll be coming into this tie with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Still, there’s reason for optimism. On paper, our technical quality and finishing should see us through, even if the manager decides to rotate and give some fringe players a chance. The cup is a chance for those on the fringes to stake a claim, and for the team as a whole to build momentum for the league run-in. But we can’t afford to be complacent. Burton’s attacking form in the cup is a warning, and our own history tells us that nothing can be taken for granted. Most pundits are tipping us to win, and I’d like to believe we’ll get the job done, but the magic of the FA Cup means you never quite know. I’m expecting an open game, probably with goals at both ends, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a real test of character. But how good would it be to be in the draw for the fifth round?

Claret & Blue Survival Showdown – Burnley and West Ham battle for Premier League future

Both West Ham and Burnley are in the relegation zone, making this a true six-pointer. Burnley sit 19th with 15 points, while West Ham are 18th with 20 points. A win for either side could be pivotal (is probably a must) in the fight for Premier League survival. A draw will be of little help to both teams. These are the two teams that have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season.

Recent Form

Burnley
  • Last 6 League Matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, 3 points
  • Season: 3 wins, 6 draws, 15 defeats, 15 points
  • Season goals: For 25, Against 47, Difference -22
  • Last Match: Lost 3-0 to Sunderland
  • Home Form: Just two wins in 12 home fixtures, but three draws in their last four at Turf Moor
  • Defensive Issues: Conceded two or more goals in four of their last five home games.
West Ham
  • Last 6 League Matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 7 points
  • Season: 5 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, 20 points
  • Season Goals: For 29, Against 48, Difference -19
  • Last Match: Lost 3-2 at Chelsea after leading 2-0
  • Away Form: Only one win in our last ten away games; we have conceded in 22 consecutive matches
  • Recent Upswing: Back-to-back wins against Tottenham and Sunderland before the Chelsea defeat.

Other Match Facts

Burnley are winless in their last seven Premier League games against West Ham, drawing three and losing four having won four of their previous five against us.

West Ham have won 10 out of 19 (53%) of their Premier League games against Burnley.

West Ham have already lost at Sunderland and Leeds this season. We’ve not lost against all three promoted clubs in a single campaign since 2009-10, which ironically included a 2-1 defeat away to Burnley.

Burnley are winless in their last 15 Premier League games (D5 L10), their longest winless run for 135 years in top-flight football. (D3 L4), having won four

Summary

This match is crucial for both clubs’ survival hopes. West Ham’s recent attacking form and Burnley’s defensive frailties suggest the Hammers have a slight edge, but both teams are under immense pressure and prone to lapses. Expect a hard-fought, nervy encounter with plenty at stake.

If the teams above us maintain their current points per game levels then the cut off point to avoid relegation is likely to be around 42 points, a higher figure than in most seasons. We currently have 20, so a minimum of 22 points will probably be needed in our last 14 games (it could be less, but it could be even more) to be playing in the Premier League next season. Where can 22 points come from? Make your predictions for the games to come and see how many you think we can get. Imagine how much better off we would be if we hadn’t thrown away 18 points so far this season from winning positions! Our remaining fixtures are:

Burnley (A)
Manchester United (H)
Bournemouth (H)
Liverpool (A)
Fulham (A)
Manchester City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Wolves (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (H)
Brentford (A)
Arsenal (H)
Newcastle (A)
Leeds (H)

Hope Springs Eternal: West Ham’s Survival Dream – Can Recent Form Continue in London Derby at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea host West Ham United at Stamford Bridge in a London derby with both teams seeking crucial points. Chelsea are in strong form, having won four consecutive matches in all competitions, including a comeback victory against Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday night. They currently sit fifth in the Premier League and are pushing for a top-four finish. West Ham, meanwhile, have revived our survival hopes with back-to-back league wins, but remain in the relegation zone, five points from safety.

Historically, Chelsea have dominated this fixture, winning their last four meetings against us. The Blues have also won their last two Premier League games against the Hammers by an aggregate score of 8-0. West Ham have managed just one win in their last 18 Premier League away games at Stamford Bridge, losing the last four in a row since November 2019.

West Ham’s recent improvement is built on a more resilient defence although we still haven’t kept a clean sheet in Premier League games for ages. Only Burnley have allowed more shots on goal than West Ham this season and we have the worst goals conceded record in the league.

The attack has been strengthened with the early transfer window signings of Pablo and Taty, Wilson looks like he is staying, Summerville is in excellent form, and Bowen is always an attacking threat. New signing Adama Traore could make his debut, with manager Nuno keen to use his pace. Traore once destroyed West Ham when playing for Middlesbrough a few seasons back but hasn’t really fulfilled what was once tremendous promise. So many are writing him off already, but he hasn’t cost a lot and I, for one, will not make any judgement until we’ve seen him. Wilson wasn’t a popular signing at the start but he has proved to be useful and the critics have been silenced for now.

Nuno is obviously very keen on Traore. As quoted in the week “I know him very well, I have worked with him many years and I know him which is why I said he is unique. There are not many players with his ability on one-v-one situations. There are not many players with his speed, with his pace and I think he is going to give us many, many things. We need his threat he possesses. His energy, not only on the pitch but in the dressing room and training ground he is a special person to have around.” So I think we can expect to see him sooner rather than later.

Fernandes had an excellent game against Sunderland; it’s hard to believe he has never before scored a goal from outside the area with those two wonder strikes, the first going in, and the second (possibly even better) striking the underside of the bar. Paqueta has left the club so we won’t have to put up any longer with a player who didn’t seem interested any more with his mind set on returning to Brazil. A few moments of magic have been mixed with some mediocre displays.

While he remained he was always going to play whilst Nuno was in charge. In the week his comments on the situation were “You cannot replace Lucas because he is unique. He is a number 10 that has special qualities. You cannot find many players like Lucas in the transfer window, you cannot find them. We have to move forward with that we have.” But is it coincidence that our wins and upturn in form have been with Paqueta not playing?

Chelsea have been scoring early, netting five goals in the first ten minutes of matches this season. West Ham, conversely, have conceded nine goals in the opening ten minutes, more than any other Premier League side. Chelsea’s home form is solid, but they have dropped points from winning positions recently, so maintaining focus will be key for them. Chelsea have scored the opening goal in five of their last six Premier League games but won only one of those. Cole Palmer returned from injury and could start after a strong cameo against Napoli. Joao Pedro is in excellent form, scoring twice in the Champions League and expected to lead the attack.

Looking at the league table and recent form, only Bournemouth of the teams in the bottom half of the table (from Sunderland 11th downwards) have picked up more points in their last six games (8) than we have (7). Worryingly Leeds and Forest, the teams immediately above us have also amassed seven. Palace are in freefall collecting just two points from the last six so we must hope that they, and perhaps one or two others continue with their poor form.

Most analysts and betting sites favour Chelsea on Saturday given their form and home advantage. The consensus prediction is a Chelsea win, with scores ranging from 2-1 to 3-1. Let’s hope our recent momentum makes us competitive enough to spring a surprise. With just fifteen games of the season left we have to start closing the gap on the teams above us.

Can West Ham fix the leaky roof or will Sunderland rain on our parade?

Desperation meets ambition at the London Stadium in the early Saturday kick-off as West Ham fight for survival and Sunderland chase European dreams. The match is crucial for both sides; West Ham are fighting to escape the relegation zone, while Sunderland, newly promoted, are pushing for European qualification.

West Ham sit in 18th place in the league on 17 points, five points adrift of safety, which effectively could be six with our inferior goal difference. With just 16 games of the season left, closing the gap on 17th place quickly is important if we are to have any chance of avoiding the drop.

We ended a 10-game winless run with a 2-1 victory at Tottenham last weekend and also won against QPR in the FA Cup. But we have only one win in the last six home games; and we have conceded in 16 consecutive league home matches (going back into last season) and have no clean sheet in the last 19 Premier League games, conceding 44 goals this season, the worst defensive record in the Premier League.

In fact if you had visited the London Stadium to watch every game for the last one and a half seasons you would have only seen two games where the opposition failed to score a goal, a 0-0 draw against Everton in November 2024 and a 2-0 win over Leicester in February 2025 (our last home league clean sheet!). Surely we cannot go a whole year without keeping a clean sheet at home!

If you go back to the campaign before last (2023-24) we actually kept four clean sheets in the season! If you are looking for any kind of omen in that season we kept three clean sheets in a row either side of Christmas at the London Stadium just a few days after a 2-1 victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Do you think we can do it again? No, nor do I. But can our defence finally lock the door, or will Sunderland find the spare key?

Sunderland have defied pre-season expectations and currently sit in 9th place on 33 points. They beat Crystal Palace 2-1 last weekend, ending a five-match winless run, and also progressed in the FA Cup. However they are winless in their last six away games and have struggled to score on the road. They have been solid defensively with the third-fewest goals conceded in the league, but they have not kept a clean sheet in four games.

We are desperate for points to escape the relegation zone. Our recent last minute win at Spurs has lifted spirits, but defensive frailties remain a major concern. Newly promoted Sunderland have exceeded expectations and are pushing for European qualification. However, their away form is a worry for them.

We can expect a tense, hard-fought encounter with goals at both ends. The most likely outcomes are a draw or a narrow win for either side, with Sunderland’s away struggles and West Ham’s defensive issues perhaps balancing the scales. Head to head we have lost just one of our last 12 Premier League home games against Sunderland, winning nine and drawing two, going down 3-0 in May 2011. We’ve won our last three all by the same 1-0 scoreline. But a fourth in a row would seem unlikely as we don’t keep clean sheets. But I’m hoping …. I’ve made a big play on our inability to not concede in this article and I’m desperately hoping to be proved wrong.

Sunderland are looking to complete the Premier League double over us for just the second time, previously doing so in 2010-11 when we were relegated. But our record at the London Stadium against promoted sides is very good, winning 16 of the last 21, drawing four. We haven’t actually lost at home to a promoted side for over four years, the last one was a 2-1 loss to Brentford in October 2021.

I’ve just got a feeling that maybe, just maybe, we are going to pick up three points again with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory. What are the chances of a Black Cat-astrophe for our visitors?

London’s Underachievers Collide. But with a gap that’s becoming too wide, and no place to hide, can West Ham turn the tide and be the better side when they visit Tottenham?

This London derby is usually a tense affair, with both clubs under immense pressure. Tottenham sit 14th in the Premier League, while West Ham are 18th and very deep in relegation trouble. Both managers, Frank for Spurs and Nuno for West Ham are under scrutiny, and defeat could have serious consequences for either side’s future, although Tottenham are not as deep in the mire as we are. Historically, Tottenham have the edge in this fixture, but both teams are struggling for form and confidence.

Tottenham are winless in 2026, with only one win in their last seven games. Their home form is poor, with just two wins in their last ten league matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They were recently knocked out of the FA Cup by Aston Villa. West Ham are winless for even longer, in our last ten Premier League matches in fact, where six have been lost and four drawn. We are seven points adrift of safety, an almost but not yet impossible position. We cannot afford to fall any further behind and need to start closing the gap on teams above us quickly if we are to have any hope of avoiding the drop. Our only recent win came in extra time against QPR in the FA Cup. Defensive frailties are a major concern, with no clean sheets in 19 matches.

Tottenham will be without Richarlison (hamstring), Kudus (thigh), Kulusevski (knee), Maddison (ACL), Bentancur (hamstring), and Sarr (AFCON). Bergvall is also a doubt.  New signing Conor Gallagher is available and could debut, Romero returns from suspension. And both Solanke and Udogie are back in the squad.

West Ham will be without Mavropanos (neck), and Diouf (AFCON). Paqueta is doubtful (back, and supposedly unsettled anyway, did I read correctly that he has only provided one assist in the last two seasons?), and Fernandes (don’t think I’ve read why). Wan-Bissaka returns from AFCON and is likely to start at right-back. Kilman will probably partner Todibo in central defence?

Tottenham have struggled to score and win at home, but (I hate to say it) have a slight edge in quality and squad depth. Six of their seven league wins have come with a clean sheet. Their defensive record is shaky, but the return of Romero could help.

Our defensive issues are glaring, especially from set pieces (most goals conceded from corners in the league, a fact that we constantly are reminded of with every corner we concede when shown on TV). We have lost all six London derbies this season and have not won away in 11 games. However, clutching at straws, Nuno has a good personal record at Spurs’ ground from previous roles.

Most experts predict a narrow Tottenham win (2-1 is a common scoreline), but a draw is also seen as plausible given both teams’ struggles. This is really based on Tottenham’s home advantage, West Ham’s defensive woes, and the psychological pressure on both managers.

There is a real sense of crisis and frustration for the fans of both clubs, but more so for us as relegation is now an odds-on probability. I can’t remember where I read of the fixture being described as “The Underachievers Derby,” but it is very true with both sets of fans desperate for a positive result but realistic about the limitations of the teams this season. There’s also the continued speculation about managerial changes and the need for squad rebuilds at both clubs. How long have we needed a squad rebuild at West Ham?

In summary we head to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium desperate to halt a winless Premier League run and close the gap on safety. With defensive frailties exposed and relegation looming, the pressure is mounting on Nuno and the squad. Injuries and absences have left the team stretched, but the return of key players may offer a glimmer of hope, especially as Tottenham are missing some key players. Despite a poor record in London derbies and away matches, we know that tightening up at the back and showing resilience could make a difference in this high-stakes clash. All of us as fans are craving a turnaround, but realism tempers expectations as we fight for survival against fellow underachievers. But unless we start to close the gap soon relegation will become an inevitability well before the end of the season, and this is the type of game where we must pick up something if we are to stand any chance of playing in the Premier League next season. It’s looking pretty hopeless isn’t it, but I try to be as optimistic as I can.

Margins, magic and misery; lines, laws and lost causes; offside, out of luck and out of time? West Ham’s fight for survival and the FA Cup’s fading romance

I’ll start by looking back at the Forest game in the week. West Ham thought they had doubled their lead early in the second half when Crysencio Summerville scored, but VAR intervened and ruled the goal out for offside. The controversy centred on Taty Castellanos, who was deemed offside in the build-up. The confusion for fans and pundits was heightened because the ball reached Castellanos after a block tackle by Forest defender Nikola Milenkovic. According to current offside law, a defender’s block or tackle does not reset the offside phase unless it’s a “deliberate play” (i.e., a controlled pass or clearance). In this case, Milenkovic’s intervention was not considered deliberate, so Castellanos remained offside, and the goal was disallowed. I would disagree. I believe that the intervention was deliberate (if it wasn’t deliberate then why was he trying to win the ball?) and that the goal should have stood.

Former referees and experts have criticised this interpretation, arguing that the law is too technical and fails to reflect the spirit of the game. The exact moment the ball is played is also notoriously difficult to judge, especially with frame-by-frame video, and the difference of a split second can mean a player is onside or offside by millimetres. The interpretation of deliberate or uncontrolled intervention is also impossible to judge. Surely it is deliberate if the defender is trying to win the ball?

The offside law was originally introduced in the 19th century to prevent “goal hanging”—players loitering near the opposition’s goal waiting for a pass. Over the years, the law has been revised several times (notably in 1925 and 1990) to encourage attacking play and make the game more exciting. However, the law now hinges on technical definitions of “deliberate play” and “active involvement,” which can be difficult to interpret even with video technology. Many (including me) have argued that it should be amended even further to the attacking team’s advantage. This could easily be done by introducing the clear daylight rule in that there has to be a gap between the attacker and defender before offside decisions are given. Let’s do away with this nonsense about parts of the body that can legitimately play the ball.

Many argue that the law is out of date and does not reflect the modern game, where split-second decisions and marginal offsides are decided by technology rather than the naked eye. The spirit of the law, to prevent unfair advantage, has been lost in a sea of technicalities.

Late in the match, Nottingham Forest were awarded a penalty after Alphonse Areola caught Morgan Gibbs-White in the face while attempting to punch clear a set-piece. VAR advised the referee to review the incident, and the penalty was given. West Ham midfielder Tomas Soucek labelled the decision “a joke,” arguing that such incidents happen frequently and that goalkeepers should be given more leeway when challenging for the ball. Former referee Mark Clattenburg, however, said the decision was correct because Areola failed to make contact with the ball and caught the player instead. I have always argued that penalties should only be awarded when an obvious goal scoring opportunity is denied which is not the case when so many penalties are awarded in football games.

Is VAR ruining football? VAR was introduced to eliminate clear and obvious errors, but its use has become far more pervasive. Instead of correcting blatant mistakes, VAR now scrutinises marginal offsides and subjective fouls, often leading to long delays and confusion. Fans and players complain that the flow of the game is disrupted, celebrations are muted, and the joy of football is diminished.

Should VAR only be used for clear and obvious errors? According to IFAB, the game’s law-makers, VAR should only intervene for “clear and obvious errors” or “serious missed incidents” in four match-changing situations: goals, penalties, direct red cards, and mistaken identity. However, in practice, VAR is often used for marginal decisions that require multiple replays. Many (including me) argue that if a decision needs to be viewed more than once, it cannot be “clear and obvious,” and the original on-field decision should stand. We shouldn’t have to wait so long for a decision to be made. These delays ruin the spontaneity of the game.

If the decisions had not gone against us the gap to Forest might now be just one point or perhaps four points. But our defeat to Forest leaves us seven points adrift of safety, with relegation odds now as short as 8/11 or even 1/5 with some bookmakers. The team is winless in ten matches, and the pressure on manager Nuno Espirito Santo is mounting. While mathematically possible, survival looks increasingly unlikely unless there is a dramatic turnaround in form, which is hard to see at the moment.

There have probably been games this season when controversial decisions have gone in our favour although I cannot recall any important ones. But these are not the reasons behind why we are very likely to be relegated. So often we put ourselves in situations where marginal calls become decisive, but a whole book could be written to describe why we are in the position we are where Championship football next season is probable. We’ve written about them all through this miserable season and I won’t return to them now!

West Ham host QPR in the FA Cup third round at the London Stadium on Sunday. I can remember when I was young there was magic and romance attached to the FA Cup competition right from the early rounds when local non-league clubs took part in the qualifying rounds, then when West Ham entered in Round 3 and all 32 games kicked off at 3 o’clock on an early January Saturday, and right up to Cup Final day itself in May. But has the magic and romance disappeared from the FA Cup?

The Premier League and UEFA Champions League now overshadow the FA Cup in terms of prestige, financial reward, and global attention. Top clubs often prioritise these competitions, fielding weakened teams in the FA Cup’s early rounds, which can diminish its importance and allure. The crowded football calendar means the FA Cup sometimes feels like an afterthought. Kick-off times are often dictated by TV schedules rather than tradition, making it harder for match-going fans to attend and reducing the sense of occasion.

The financial gap between Premier League and lower-league clubs has widened. The FA Cup’s prize money is modest compared to league placements or European qualification, reducing its incentive for bigger clubs. Having said that the big clubs are almost always the winners in the end.

Changes such as the abolition of replays and the moving of the final from its traditional Saturday 3pm slot have eroded some of the competition’s unique traditions, making it feel less special to some supporters.

Does the magic and romance still endure in any way? The FA Cup remains famous for “giant-killings”, when smaller clubs defeat Premier League giants, it still makes news. Recent years have still produced memorable upsets, such as Stevenage beating Aston Villa, Crawley Town thrashing Leeds, Plymouth Argyle’s shock win over Liverpool, and even yesterday when statistically we had the biggest upset of all time with sixth tier Macclesfield deservedly knocking out the holders Crystal Palace. These moments capture the essence of the competition and keep the romance alive. As West Ham fans we’ve been on the receiving end of so many of these giant killings in my lifetime!

As the world’s oldest national football competition, the FA Cup still carries a unique historical and cultural significance. For most fans and clubs, winning the FA Cup is still a dream and a source of immense pride. How we’d love to repeat 1964, 1975 and 1980!

For lower-league and non-league teams, the FA Cup offers a rare chance to play on a big stage, secure financial windfalls, and create lifelong memories for their fans. These stories, like non-league teams reaching the later rounds, are the heart of the FA Cup’s enduring appeal. The competition still inspires passion, especially in local derbies or when underdog teams are involved. For many, the “magic” is now more selective, shining brightest in these moments rather than universally.

Some fans and commentators argue that the FA Cup’s “magic” is now a cliché, used to paper over the reality that the competition has lost some of its former glory. Others point out that the romance is still there, but it’s harder to find amid the dominance of elite clubs and commercial pressures. There is nostalgia for the days when the FA Cup final was the highlight of the football calendar, but also recognition that the competition still produces drama, upsets, and moments of pure football joy.

The FA Cup may not hold the universal magic and romance it once did, especially for top clubs and younger fans raised on the Premier League and Champions League. However, for smaller clubs, traditionalists, and those who cherish football’s unpredictability, the FA Cup still provides unforgettable moments and upsets that keep its spirit alive. The “magic” hasn’t disappeared, it’s just harder to find, and perhaps more precious when it appears.

There was a time when I was young when I would have been really excited by this third round game against Queens Park Rangers and hoping that we would still be in the draw for the fourth round that I would listen to on the radio on the following Monday lunchtime, another tradition that has disappeared. But this season has been such a miserable one that my interest is much diminished. In times gone by there was always a hope that we could win a few games and reach Wembley. This time around I would love us to do this but I reckon there is less chance of us going to Wembley than escaping relegation. But it is so long since we won a game that it would be good to beat QPR (even a weakened QPR with several players out injured and chasing a play-off position in the Championship) and perhaps give some of our fringe players a run out to show what they can do (or not!). I remain hopeful!  

Relegation Showdown: Will Wolves Whip Up A Win or Will the Hammers Happily Hammer Home the Headlines and Head Home With The Precious Points

At Molineux’s ground, the tension will rise
Wolves and West Ham, both chasing the prize
The table looks grim for the Old Gold pack
Winless at home, with defenders pulled back.

Rob Edwards’ Wolves, at the foot of the league
Have struggled for points, they’ve shown their fatigue
Injuries, suspensions their squad’s looking thin
But hope springs anew when the Hammers roll in.

West Ham aren’t flying, we’re gasping for air
Away days bring trouble, our victories are rare
Nuno’s men, hungry, will look to attack
Who will join Bowen leading the pack?

Both teams have struggled to keep the back tight
Goals at both ends could light up the night
A draw seems likely, with goals at each end
But a single bright moment could see fortunes bend.

So gather your scarves and ready your beer
For Wolves v West Ham is so nearly here
A battle for points, for hope and for pride
Who’ll climb from the bottom? There’s no place to hide.

A few years ago Wolves won four on the spin
But just three from the last ten, they’re desperate to win
Last April Wolves triumphed, a one-nil delight
Can they light up the stands on this Saturday night?

West Ham at Molineux have found it quite tough
Five losses from seven; those fixtures were rough!
But two April victories (2021 and 2024),
just two wins that’s right!
Can the Hammers strike gold on this Saturday night?

From Promises to Peril: West Ham’s Premier League Future Hangs In The Balance

Can we turn our season around or is relegation now inevitable?

Saturday’s clash at the London Stadium is more than just another fixture—it’s a pivotal moment in West Ham’s season. The Hammers are mired in a relegation battle, sitting 18th in the table as we head into our 18th game of the season, and there’s no getting away from it, form and morale are at a worrying low. Forget all the talk about resurgence under Nuno, we are now six points adrift (if you take goal difference into account) and how many games have we won recently? Our last six league games have failed to produce a single win and just three points from three draws. That’s relegation form.

Fulham, meanwhile, arrive in better shape, unbeaten in their last ten London derbies and with a more balanced squad. They’ve won four of their last six league games, but in a tight division, although they are 13th in the table, they are just four points away from sixth place. Recent meetings have favoured Fulham, with West Ham winless in the last three encounters and suffering heavy defeats in previous derbies.

Predictions from analysts and betting sites suggest Fulham are favourites, with West Ham’s defensive frailties and lack of attacking threat making a home win unlikely. The Hammers have conceded in every home game this season and have one of the worst home records in the league.

Our struggles are rooted in a combination of poor recruitment, tactical confusion, and a lack of clear direction from the top. The club has cycled through managers—Julen Lopetegui, Graham Potter, and now Nuno Espirito Santo—without finding stability or a coherent playing style. The squad has been reshuffled, but new signings have failed to make a significant impact, and key departures (such as Declan Rice) have left a leadership void.

On the pitch, the problems are clear, defensive lapses, especially at set pieces and in aerial duels, players out of position leading to a lack of cohesion, poor discipline with a high number of fouls and cards and a worrying inability to convert chances into goals. The atmosphere at the London Stadium has also suffered, with fans feeling disconnected and apathetic, further compounding the team’s lack of confidence.

Who is to blame? While managers have taken much of the criticism, expert analysis and fan sentiment increasingly point to the board, particularly David Sullivan and Karen Brady, as the root cause. Poor decisions in the transfer market, questionable managerial appointments, and a lack of long-term strategy have left the club adrift. The recruitment failures and boardroom mismanagement are more to blame than the managers themselves. The club’s identity has been eroded since the move to the London Stadium and promises of a “world-class team” have not materialised.

There’s also blame to be shared among the players, who have not performed to their potential, and the managers, who have struggled to impose a clear tactical identity. However, the underlying structural issues mean that even talented individuals have been unable to thrive.

The importance of retaining Premier League status and the financial and sporting consequences cannot be underestimated. Relegation would be catastrophic for West Ham. The club stands to lose up to £120 million in revenue from TV rights, ticket sales, and sponsorships if we drop to the Championship. This would not only impact the ability to attract and retain top players but could also lead to further instability and decline.

The Premier League’s financial gap with the Championship is ever-widening, and survival is essential for maintaining the club’s profile, competitiveness, and future prospects. The new financial regulations (Squad Cost Ratio) will also make it harder for clubs to recover from relegation, increasing the stakes for West Ham.

Historically, teams in 18th place at Christmas have survived two-thirds of the time, but the odds are against those in the bottom three. Our situation is precarious, but not yet hopeless; recent seasons have seen dramatic escapes, but only with decisive action and improved performances.

Saturday’s game is beginning to look like a must-win for West Ham. Unless we turn recent results around in the next six games (which are as winnable as it gets in the Premier League) then we can start to prepare for trips to Blackburn, Swansea and Wrexham and, dare I say it, Millwall (that’s if they don’t change places with us!). The team needs to show resilience, tactical discipline, and attacking intent to have any hope of climbing out of the relegation zone. The board must act decisively in the January transfer window, addressing squad weaknesses and supporting the manager. Above all, the club needs unity—between fans, players, and leadership—to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and secure our Premier League future.

If West Ham fail to turn things around, the consequences will be severe—not just for this season, but for the club’s long-term health and identity.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Miracles, Memories and Missed Bets: Reliving some of West Ham’s greatest moments against Manchester City

West Ham travel to Manchester this weekend to face City, and while I’d love to believe in an upset, history and current form make that hard to imagine. City are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League games against us, winning 16, and we’ve lost 15 of our last 16 away games there. The only exception was in the final Boleyn season, when we managed a 2-1 win in September 2015, with Victor Moses and Diafra Sakho scoring before De Bruyne pulled one back just before half time. We held on for a famous victory that day.

City don’t show mercy to teams in the relegation zone; it’s been 46 games since they last lost to a team starting the day in the bottom three, and they’ve won the last 14 of those, scoring 43 and conceding just 7. If you’re hoping current form might give us a chance, City have won five of their last six league games to climb into second place, just two points behind Arsenal, while we’ve only managed one win in our last six, though we have picked up three draws.

Rather than dwell on the chances of an upset, I find myself reminiscing about the times we’ve managed to get the better of City. I sometimes like a small wager on the football, and over the years I’ve had my share of luck and disappointment. One memory stands out from 23rd March 1996, when City were struggling near the bottom of the table. I fancied a bet on the correct score and thought the odds on us winning 4-1 at 80-1 were too good to pass up. We had seats in the old West Stand lower, and I remember Ludo saving an early penalty from Kinkladze. Iain Dowie scored with a header for 1-0 at half time, and in the second half he added another from a corner. City pulled one back after a blunder from Ludo, but then Julian Dicks smashed in a screamer from 30 yards for 3-1. I started to believe my bet might come in, and when Dani tucked away a fourth, I was already counting my winnings. But in the dying seconds Niall Quinn scored for City, and the game ended 4-2. So near and yet so far – a terrific game, and a great result, but just a little personal disappointment at the end.

That wasn’t the only time fate played a hand. In the 2000-01 season, on Remembrance Day, I told colleagues about my unlucky 4-2 betting tale and fancied another go at 4-1. The new stand was under construction, and strong winds delayed kick-off. I forgot to place my bet, and as it turned out, despite being a goal down at half time, we won 4-1 again with a last minute Di Canio penalty. This time, missing the bet meant missing out on £165, as the odds had dropped to 33-1.

Among my earliest football memories is the 1959-60 season, when we beat City 4-1 during a run of eight wins in ten games. In 1962-63, we thrashed City 6-1 twice, home and away, and in 1966, shortly after England’s World Cup win, we beat them 4-1 at Maine Road with goals from Ron Boyce, two from Geoff Hurst, and Martin Peters. In 1968, we beat City 2-1 at Upton Park with two classic near-post headers, and perhaps the most famous game came in March 1970 on a mudbath of a pitch at Maine Road. Jimmy Greaves scored twice on his debut, but the highlight was Ron Boyce’s volley from 50 yards, and we won 5-1. In 1982-83, we beat City 4-1 again early in the season, and once more, City were relegated that year.

I haven’t had a correct score bet on a West Ham v Manchester City game since that day in 1996, almost 30 years ago. The odds for a 4-1 West Ham away win this weekend are 200/1, and just to win by any score is around 12/1. I think I’ll keep my fiver in my pocket this time. As much as I’d love to believe in a miracle, history suggests otherwise – but football is nothing if not unpredictable, and memories of those famous wins remind us that anything (however unlikely!) is possible.