February 2026 – Under The Hammers

West Ham’s Chances of Survival – The Under the Hammers Supercomputer Predicts

The Under The Hammers Supercomputer, Deep Block, has been called into action to predict what might be necessary in the run-in for West Ham to retain their Premier League status. Geoff’s latest article confirmed that Deep Block has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42.

I asked Deep Block to consider the situation again and it ran thousands more permutations and it once again confirmed the belief that 42 points is needed to guarantee survival. It did however concede the Douglas Adams influence on the total needed and when asked if there was any leeway it confirmed that 38 points might be enough and now prefers to give a range of 38-42 points given the unpredictable nature of football. I asked it to consider West Ham’s chances of reaching the lower end of the range and this is what it came up with:

West Ham’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures (2025/26)

West Ham have 10 points from our last 6 games. Here are our final 12 league matches, with a prediction for each based on current form, opponent quality, and recent trends. Of course the current form of our opponents may be different at the time we come to play them:

Date	Opponent	Venue	Prediction & Rationale
21 Feb	Bournemouth	Home	Draw – Bournemouth are in good form, 9^th in the table and no team in the league can better their 14 points from their last 6 games, but West Ham’s home advantage could earn a point. This is one of the games where the difference between a loss, a draw and a win could be massive in the final analysis.
28 Feb	Liverpool	Away	Loss – Last season’s champions Liverpool are having a poor season by their standards, 6^th in table, but are strong at Anfield; historically a tough fixture for West Ham. They have 8 points from their last 6 games. A point in this game is unlikely but if achieved it would be an added bonus in the fight for survival.
4 Mar	Fulham	Away	Draw – Fulham are inconsistent, 12^th in table, with just 2 wins and 4 defeats in their last 6 games; West Ham could grind out a point, but this is one of the six away games where we have the best chances for a win.
14 Mar	Manchester City	Home	Loss – City are title contenders, second in the table and closing on Arsenal; they have 11 points in their last 6 games; West Ham will be big underdogs. We always lose this game and this season’s fixture is likely to have the same result. An unlikely point would be brilliant – Arsenal will be cheering us on.
22 Mar	Aston Villa	Away	Loss – Villa are flying high, currently third this season but only 8 points from last 6 games; a difficult away trip, but a point might just be possible although statistically unlikely.
11 Apr	Wolves	Home	Win – Wolves are struggling, bottom of the league 17 points from safety with no chance of avoiding the drop; a must-win for West Ham and a realistic three points, despite the adverse result and display in the away fixture.
18 Apr	Crystal Palace	Away	Draw – Palace are unpredictable, 13^th in the league with just 5 points from their last six games; a point is possible, but like the away game at Fulham this is one of the six away games where we have to hope for a win.
25 Apr	Everton	Home	Win – Everton are in good form, 8^th in the table with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games; West Ham’s home form could be decisive. It won’t be easy but at this stage three points will be critical if all goes to plan.
2 May	Brentford	Away	Draw – Brentford are solid, an unexpected 7^th in the current table and good form with 10 points in the last 6 games, but West Ham can take a point if we defend well. We meet in the fifth round of the FA Cup at the London Stadium before this game is played.
9 May	Arsenal	Home	Loss – Arsenal, top of the league, but faltering a little with 9 points from their last 6 games; they are likely to still be in the close title race; it will be tough for West Ham. This is an unlikely game to pick up anything unless Arsenal’s nerves are shredded at this point; they have been known to falter and panic as the season approaches a climax.
17 May	Newcastle United	Away	Loss – Newcastle are inconsistent but generally strong at home; but just 7 points from their last 6 games. West Ham will be underdogs, but at this stage anything from the game could be vital.
24 May	Leeds United	Home	Win – We will know what we need to do at this point if we are still able to survive. Leeds may still be involved but may well be safe by then; West Ham could take advantage if that is the case.

Summary of Points Projection

Predicted Results: 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
Estimated Points: 13 points from the final 12 matches

As West Ham currently have 24 points, this projection would see them finish on 37 points—right on the bottom edge of the predicted survival threshold of 38-42 points.

Key Insights

Crucial Matches: Home games against Wolves, Everton, and Leeds (and possibly Bournemouth despite their current form) are the ‘must-wins’. Points gained in other games will likely decide West Ham’s fate.
Tough Run-in: Fixtures against 8 teams currently in the top 10 are challenging, and 5 games against top 7 sides Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford and Villa especially so. Points from these five are very unlikely, but an odd one or two could be crucial.

Margin for Error: Slim—any slip-ups in crucial games could be fatal. Deep Block highlights the seven most crucial games are those against Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds. At least 14 points from those will probably be the minimum required unless some unexpected points can be gained from away trips to Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa, and home games against the top two, Arsenal and Manchester City

Current Record: West Ham have played 26 matches, earning 24 points, which is an average of 0.92 points per match.
Recent Form: In their last 6 league matches, West Ham have picked up 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats), which is an improved rate of 1.67 points per match.
Other Supercomputer Projections: Multiple models predict West Ham will finish with 36 points and in 18th place, which would mean relegation.
Required Rate for Survival: To reach the likely minimum safety threshold of 38 points, West Ham need at least 14 points from their final 12 matches—1.17 points per match. To hit the higher estimate of 42 points, we’d need 18 points or 1.5 points per match.

Fixture Analysis

West Ham’s remaining 12 fixtures include 8 matches against teams currently in the top half (top 10) of the table, with just 4 fixtures against teams in the bottom 10 (Fulham, Palace, Leeds and Wolves)
Our recent “upswing” (back-to-back wins before a narrow loss to Chelsea, and then a win against Burnley and draw against Manchester United) suggests we could maintain a realistic chance of survival if form continues. How important could the 20 points dropped from winning positions turn out to be?

Comparison with Other Relegation Teams

Burnley

Current Points: 18 from 26 matches (0.69 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 20 points from 12 matches (1.67 points per match) to reach 38 points—an unlikely jump given their form.
Projection: Burnley will finish with 28–32 points and be relegated.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Current Points: 10 from 27 matches (0.37 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 28 points from 11 matches (2.55 points per match) for 38 points—virtually impossible but still mathematically possible.
Projection: Overwhelming favourites for relegation, predicted to finish bottom.

Nottingham Forest

Current Points: 27 from 26 matches (1.04 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 11 points from 12 matches (0.92 points per match) for 38 points—achievable just if current form (9 points from 6 games) holds.
Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Tottenham

Current Points: 29 from 26 matches (1.12 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 9 points from 12 matches (0.75 points per match) for 38 points—a very real risk of relegation unless recent slide in form (2 points from 6 games) and instability improves.
Projection: Slightly better survival odds than West Ham, but still at risk.

Leeds United

Current Points: 30 from 26 matches (1.15 points per match).
Required Rate: Needs 8 points from 12 matches (0.67 points per match) for 38 points—favourable position.
Projection: Most models predict survival, with Leeds finishing just above the drop zone.

Survival Chances: Odds and Supercomputer Predictions

Relegation Odds: Wolves and Burnley are overwhelming favourites for relegation. West Ham are the next most likely, with odds reflecting their precarious position but also their recent improvement. Tottenham and Forest are the next most likely with the bookmakers.
Our Supercomputer, Deep Block, Forecasts: West Ham are predicted to finish 18th with 37 points, just below the safety line. Burnley and Wolves are expected to go down, with Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds narrowly surviving.

Conclusion

Our survival chances are better than Burnley and Wolves, but slightly worse than Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds. But taking into account the unpredictability of results it is too close to call at the moment.
West Ham’s realistic points per match is 1.0–1.2 if recent form continues, but we need to maintain or improve this to survive. Key matches will be decisive. If West Ham can win those, survival is possible, but the margin for error is slim. West Ham will likely need at least 38 points to guarantee Premier League survival this season, but a safer target would be 40–42 points given the competitiveness of the relegation battle. This means we must secure 14–18 points from our final 12 matches. Anything less could leave our fate dependent on other teams’ results.

West Ham Survive The Brewer’s Droop But Face Stiff Bees Test To Remain Up For The Cup

Despite a dire performance in the substandard FA Cup tie at Burton, the Hammers are through to the 5th Round to face Brentford. Before that it is back to league football and the desperate battle for survival.

In the world of modern football, the entry of Premier League and Championship clubs into the FA Cup has developed into a series of phoney rounds in this glorious old competition. For the fans, it promises dreams, excitement, and anticipation. An outside chance of snatching silverware just five matches away on the road to Wembley. For the media, there are potential banana skins and giant killing heroics that make for thrilling content as an antidote to the tactical morass of league football.

But in the dugouts and technical areas things are far more cynical. Where the romance of the cup is increasingly viewed as an unwelcome inconvenience – a contractual obligation distracting from the real business of titles, European qualification, promotions and relegations. The manager’s conundrum: how much can I get away with while still making it look like we’re taking it seriously?

And so, this was how it was as the Hammers headed up the M1 to Burton for their 4^th round tie against lowly League 1 opposition. Ten changes from the side who had faced Manchester United four days earlier including first starts for Adama Traore, Keiber Lamadrid and Mohammadou Kante. To test our patience even further, Nuno also reverted to his favoured cup formation of three centre-backs to cope with the anticipated threat from the mighty Brewers front line.

I’ve never been a fan of three at the back given it is generally adopted as a negative formation. To make it work requires high energy wing backs continually pushing up to provide attacking width; and wide forwards who are deployed narrower to create space on the wings and provide threat through the middle. None of that happened. And with two central midfielders seemingly instructed to sit deep it was a dire and disjointed effort. Perhaps no surprise from a team of relative strangers playing in a formation that didn’t suit them.

The entertainment was as far from a pulsating cup tie as could be imagined. Little of note happened for the entire 90 minutes of regulation time and it was only the introduction of Crysencio Summerville that lifted the game from its fitful slumber. The quality of his sixth goal in seven games totally out of character from the substandard game.

In line with current trends, the game’s major talking point revolved around the weak refereeing of Lewis Smith. The tackle by Freddie Potts was a clear foul and deserving of the yellow card originally selected by Smith. For the referee to change his mind, not due to advice from some guy in a bunker at Stockley Park, but due to the reaction of the Burton players was diabolical. Yet another irony of officiating whereby waving an imaginary card gets you a booking, but mobbing the referee gets the decision changed.

By the end, the Hammers were hanging on. But Nuno’s gamble or resting key players for the relegation battle had paid off. As with the previous round extra time had been required but we were into the hat for the 5^th round draw. We shouldn’t scoff at this. It is an above average achievement for the club who since their last FA Cup win in 1980 have been dumped out of the competition by this stage in 60% of seasons.

It was difficult to judge the performances of the young players in the circumstances. I have a general concerning our academy graduates in that they tend to be developed as tidy rather than exciting. Competent at receiving the ball, controlling it and making a simple pass, but lacking enough va va voom to make them special. Of those I’ve seen, Ezra Mayers looks to be the leading prospect.

Last night’s 5^th round draw turned up a home tie against bogey side Brentford. Games will be played on the weekend of March 7/8 after three more league games have taken place. Teams will be starting to take the cup more seriously by this stage, giving the managers plenty more to think about in what is shaping up to be an open tournament. West Ham will still be in survival chasing mode by then, while Brentford might well be eyeing Champion’s League qualification. It’s not the worst of draws but still a very difficult obstacle to overcome.

During the FA Cup hiatus, the Under The Hammers supercomputer, Deep Block, has been analysing the thousands of possible permutations and scenarios for the remaining league games. It concluded that the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and points needed to guarantee Premier League survival is 42. A target that would require West Ham to pick up 18 points from the upcoming 12 games. That’s a minimum of 5 wins and a handful of draws. Not impossible but still a huge change of fortune for a team that has won just 30 of their last 100 league games, while averaging 1.15 points per game. Repeating such form would take us only to 38 points which may well not be enough. Below is my own winnability ranking of the 12 games to go.

The uphill challenge begins on Saturday with the visit of Bournemouth to the London Stadium. It is one of the games I feel that must be won if safety is to be achieved. But Bournemouth are an enigma. Losing player after player but then finding they have another one hidden up their sleeve. This time a teenage Brazilian (Rayan) who has slotted seamlessly into English football with two goals and an assist in 198 minutes played.

The Hammer’s preparations have been hampered by a mysterious injury to new signing Pablo. The striker becoming the latest occupant of the Andy Carroll suite at West Ham’s Rush Green Infirmary. Pablo’s absence will require a change to the more adventurous formation that had kickstarted our recent revival. My instinct is that Nuno will use Jean-Clair Todibo’s return from suspension as the excuse for a reprise of the three at the back experiment as follows: Hermansen – Todibo, Disasi, Mavropanos – Wan-Bissaka, Fernandes, Soucek, Diouf – Bowen, Taty, Summerville.

COYI!

Cup Dreams or Banana Skins? West Ham visit Burton in Classic FA Cup Fourth Round Contest

As a West Ham fan, the build-up to this Saturday’s FA Cup Fourth Round tie against Burton Albion is a familiar mix of anticipation and nerves. Our league campaign has been a struggle so far, with the team sitting 18th in the Premier League and every point feeling increasingly precious. Yet, there’s a sense that the FA Cup could be the spark we need to turn our season around. I’ve read some that say forget the cup and concentrate on staying in the Premier League. I don’t agree.

Saying this, our recent form has shown signs of life and we are not down yet. 2026 started badly with a comprehensive 3-0 defeat at bottom of the table Wolves, one of our worst performances in years (and there have been a few!). Following this three days later the home defeat to Forest (unlucky as it was it some respects) suggested that our chances of escaping the drop were disappearing fast. The cup win over QPR, even if it took extra time, seemed to inject some much-needed confidence into the squad, and we began to feel the mood shifting ever so slightly.

The last five games since then have yielded 10 points in the league with away wins at Tottenham and Burnley, a home win over Sunderland, a 3-2 defeat at Chelsea after leading 2-0 at half-time, and Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United with their equaliser coming in the sixth minute of time added on. The board indicated seven minutes. Where did that come from? Of course we might have been happy with the prospect of one point before the game but Sesko’s finish was a body blow and it seemed like two points lost rather than one gained. It means we have now regained sole leadership of one particular league table – points dropped from a winning position – we are now at the top with 20. If just some of those leads had been retained how different the league table would look now.

Of course, as any West Ham supporter knows, the FA Cup is never straightforward for us. Our history in the competition in my lifetime is varied, three-time winners (the last one coming in 1980 over 45 years ago), and twice runners-up, but it’s also littered with those infamous “banana skins.” Losses to the likes of AFC Wimbledon, Wigan, and West Brom in recent years have left scars alongside those from years gone by – the list is endless – Huddersfield, Stoke, Plymouth, Blackburn, Swindon, Huddersfield again, Coventry, Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Huddersfield (for a third time!), Hull, Hereford, Newport County, Wrexham, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR, Norwich, Torquay, Barnsley, Luton, QPR (again), Grimsby, Wrexham (again), Swansea, Tranmere, Sheffield Wednesday (again), Sheffield Wednesday (for a 3^rd time), Nottingham Forest, and Sheffield United. Those are just some that I can recall from my many years of following the team and to them can be added a similar number of League Cup exits to lower league opposition. There’s always that nagging worry that we might slip up once again.

Burton Albion, for their part, are having a tough time in League One, sitting 21st and fighting relegation. Their league form has been poor, with no wins in their last five, but the FA Cup has brought out a different side of them. Fourteen goals in three cup games is no fluke, and they’ll be coming into this tie with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Still, there’s reason for optimism. On paper, our technical quality and finishing should see us through, even if the manager decides to rotate and give some fringe players a chance. The cup is a chance for those on the fringes to stake a claim, and for the team as a whole to build momentum for the league run-in. But we can’t afford to be complacent. Burton’s attacking form in the cup is a warning, and our own history tells us that nothing can be taken for granted. Most pundits are tipping us to win, and I’d like to believe we’ll get the job done, but the magic of the FA Cup means you never quite know. I’m expecting an open game, probably with goals at both ends, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a real test of character. But how good would it be to be in the draw for the fifth round?

West Ham At Burnley: Fernandes Outstanding, Summerville On Fire And The Return Of The Mads

There may yet be life left in the floundering Hammers. A third win in four games and fine individual performances raises the prospect of another great escape and puts pressure on a handful of teams immediately above us.

The welcome victory and clean sheet at Turf Moor was not quite the game of two halves that we have come to expect from West Ham. But it was a close call. The fearless ambition of the first half certainly didn’t make it back out of the dressing room after the break.

It is rare for a Nuno lineup not to prompt at least a moment or two’s head scratching when it is first announced. On this occasion it was a recall for Mads Hermansen, the keeper most responsible for the Hammer’s unhappy title as set piece concession kings. Nuno’s rationale was that Hermansen had been outstanding in training and merited a second chance. More likely was that Alphonse Areola was designated scapegoat for the manager’s poor game management at Chelsea.

In fairness, Mads did all that was asked of him and did nothing wrong. He can proudly boast to have kept goal for all (both) of the team’s league clean sheets this season. He is also far more comfortable with the ball at his feet than Areola. But I couldn’t escape the heebie jeebies whenever a high ball was drilled into the box. It’s not that Areola is the most commanding of keepers, but Mads lack of stature is an added worry. Fortunately, Burnley didn’t put him to the test apart from a brief spell of pressure after the break. More knowing opponents will surely look to target this short(!)coming.

On a positive selection note, Nuno opted to throw new loan signing Axel Disasi straight into the mix than relying on the hapless Max Kilman. It was a solid debut for Disasi who showed no sign of ring rustiness as a result of his lack of game time. Again, the caveat is that none of the defence were not unduly troubled by a poor Burnley team for whom Premier League survival is now a lost cause. It is unlikely that Scott Parker will follow in the footsteps of previous failed Burnley manager, Vincent Kompany, by landing a job at a European heavyweight.

Both West Ham goals came during a dominant first half display. The first, Mateus Fernandes’ powerful run from his own half before releasing Crysencio Summerville to dink a smart finish over the keeper. The second, a pleasing retro West Ham passing movement. Fernandes from deep to Summerville; a delightful layoff to Malick Diouf; and an excellent cross expertly headed home by Taty Castellanos. They are what I call genuine assists.

It was a fifth goal in five games for Summerville. Quite a turnaround for someone who looked like he couldn’t hit a barn door earlier in the season. And, of course, it should have been six in six had it not been for incompetent officiating in the Nottingham Forest fixture.

The second half was an anti-climax as far as West Ham attacking intent was concerned. They might have snatched a third had Jarrod Bowen’s final pass been better at the end of an impressive run, but the master plan was to protect what they had at half time without adding to the points lost from winning positions.

With Burnley making a bright start after the break, the Hammers were temporarily in panic mode and experienced several narrow escapes at the back. Nuno’s reaction was to replace a striker, Callum Wilson, with Freddie Potts in midfield. The game settled down after this with goalmouth action at a premium. While I would have liked to have seen a more adventurous change in an attempt to boost the woeful goal difference, it can be argued that the end justified the means. It was a precious three points in the bank.

As in the majority of recent games, Fernandes was the standout West Ham perfromer. A presence in midfield not seen since the departure of Declan Rice. Just a shame there is not a more influential partner to share central midfield duties with than Tomas Soucek. Aside from providing extra height in either box, the game mostly passes Soucek by. Every pass made is safe and predictable. It’s really not good enough in the modern midfield frenzy and will surely be exposed by pacier and more energetic adversaries.

The scourge of inconsistent refereeing was my other takeaway from the game. The slightest coming together in a tackle is often needlessly penalised, fouls outside and inside the box are treated differently, extravagant dives and play acting are rewarded, defenders are routinely allowed to manhandle forwards while forwards are pulled up for merely jostling defenders. Time and again Kyle Walker was allowed to get away with pushing and shoving Summerville because he knew he was lost for pace. If Adama Traore had been brought with the sole intention of clattering Walker into the advertising hoardings, I would have looked more favourably on his signing.

Victory made it three wins in the last four games for West Ham. We’re still deep in the smelly stuff but the outside prospect of escape has been renewed. No accident that the uptick in performances have coincided with the arrival of El Paco as Nuno’s right-hand man. Was it really blatant penny pinching that prevented him bringing in his own staff?

West Ham sit an encouraging seventh place in the Premier League form table (last six games) and to survive we must hope results can continue to improve. Ominously, leading that table are Tuesday night’s opponents, Manchester United. My impression of the Red Devils is a team that is lively in attack yet vulnerable at the back. That must drive our approach to the game.

It is tempting to get caught up in assessing all the odds and permutations that could arise between now and the end of the season for each team at the bottom of the table. But as Shakespeare wrote (in ‘When Saturday Doth Approach’) “That way madness lies.” Best just to focus on our own results and performances. Win as many games as we can and hopefully someone else will end up below us.

History tells us that as the season progresses, results start to become even more unpredictable. There are teams with nothing to play for, teams focusing on cup competitions and outcomes that are already settled. The Hammers face Manchester City and Aston Villa immediately after midweek Round of 16 European games. Arsenal may already have won the league by May 9 and have an eye on the chance of a double/ treble/ quadruple. Less likely but still possible, Newcastle may be preparing for a Champions League final when we play them on May 17. Does any of that help? Who knows? But at least it’s a few straws to clutch at. COYI!

Claret & Blue Survival Showdown – Burnley and West Ham battle for Premier League future

Both West Ham and Burnley are in the relegation zone, making this a true six-pointer. Burnley sit 19th with 15 points, while West Ham are 18th with 20 points. A win for either side could be pivotal (is probably a must) in the fight for Premier League survival. A draw will be of little help to both teams. These are the two teams that have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season.

Recent Form

Burnley

Last 6 League Matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, 3 points
Season: 3 wins, 6 draws, 15 defeats, 15 points
Season goals: For 25, Against 47, Difference -22
Last Match: Lost 3-0 to Sunderland
Home Form: Just two wins in 12 home fixtures, but three draws in their last four at Turf Moor
Defensive Issues: Conceded two or more goals in four of their last five home games.

West Ham

Last 6 League Matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 7 points
Season: 5 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, 20 points
Season Goals: For 29, Against 48, Difference -19
Last Match: Lost 3-2 at Chelsea after leading 2-0
Away Form: Only one win in our last ten away games; we have conceded in 22 consecutive matches
Recent Upswing: Back-to-back wins against Tottenham and Sunderland before the Chelsea defeat.

Other Match Facts

Burnley are winless in their last seven Premier League games against West Ham, drawing three and losing four having won four of their previous five against us.

West Ham have won 10 out of 19 (53%) of their Premier League games against Burnley.

West Ham have already lost at Sunderland and Leeds this season. We’ve not lost against all three promoted clubs in a single campaign since 2009-10, which ironically included a 2-1 defeat away to Burnley.

Burnley are winless in their last 15 Premier League games (D5 L10), their longest winless run for 135 years in top-flight football. (D3 L4), having won four

Summary

This match is crucial for both clubs’ survival hopes. West Ham’s recent attacking form and Burnley’s defensive frailties suggest the Hammers have a slight edge, but both teams are under immense pressure and prone to lapses. Expect a hard-fought, nervy encounter with plenty at stake.

If the teams above us maintain their current points per game levels then the cut off point to avoid relegation is likely to be around 42 points, a higher figure than in most seasons. We currently have 20, so a minimum of 22 points will probably be needed in our last 14 games (it could be less, but it could be even more) to be playing in the Premier League next season. Where can 22 points come from? Make your predictions for the games to come and see how many you think we can get. Imagine how much better off we would be if we hadn’t thrown away 18 points so far this season from winning positions! Our remaining fixtures are:

Burnley (A)
Manchester United (H)
Bournemouth (H)
Liverpool (A)
Fulham (A)
Manchester City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Wolves (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (H)
Brentford (A)
Arsenal (H)
Newcastle (A)
Leeds (H)

Nuno’s Game Management Weakness Costs West Ham Dear In Stamford Bridge Battle

The Hammer’s specialty of throwing away hard-earned points was to the fore on Saturday when Nuno needlessly pressed the defensive panic button in response to Chelsea pressure

Saturday’s game at Stamford Bridge managed to encapsulated the entire emotional range of supporting West Ham in recent seasons. A spectrum of hope, expectation, false dawns, frustrations, disbelief and anger.

A run of three straight wins had allowed the merest hint of optimism to seep into an otherwise hopeless situation. Things were still desperate but at least there was a sense that the players were prepared to give it a go. That if we went down, we would go down fighting.

In the build up to Saturday’s game, only the recklessly optimistic were predicting victory at Chelsea. Their glass half-full prophecies possibly the result of glasses being topped up too quickly and too frequently with intoxicating liquor. For the rest of us, a spirited performance capable of boosting morale and confidence for the winnable fixtures to come was the essential requirement. A point would be great, but a narrow defeat wouldn’t be a disaster if it was backed by a performance to be proud of.

It’s funny how perspectives on games can be changed by events. If you had only seen the final score, you might imagine an action-packed end-to-end thriller that was only settled in added time. But that was not the reality. It was another two-goal lead tamely thrown away after the break. Another West Ham game of two halves. No wonder Hammer’s fans were fuming. Not for the first time this season, a comfortable two goal half-time lead surrendered thanks to poor game management. The media focus would be on Chelsea’s sensational comeback. But one man’s comeback is another man’s capitulation.

West Ham have now dropped 18 points from winning positions this season (15 since the appointment of Nuno). They have taken the lead in 12 games and ended up losing four and drawing three of those matches. Had they preserved only a third of the points, then the gap to safety would be far more presentable. A half and they would be mid-table.

Exactly what goes on in the dressing room at half-time? What signals does Nuno give out to the players. Does he convey nervousness and caution? Does a half-time lead come as so much of a shock that he doesn’t know what to do or how to react? Does he permanently carry a panic button around with him ready to revert to type at the first sign of pressure? Convinced that the worst defence in the league – the one without a clean sheet since they last played against a Nuno side – are capable of holding out for an entire half as you invite the opposition to attack. And that the worst defender in the league is just the man to shore things up. There is no chance West Ham can defend their way to survival. And why try it when the relative strength is with the attacking players?

From what we have seen so far, Nuno’s game management expertise is shocking. Tactical and personnel changes when they come have been late and misguided. The common themes have been replacing forwards with defenders, defending deeper, creating massive gaps between defence and attack, isolating forwards and abandoning all pretence of ambition. Failing to occupy the opposition defenders is an open invitation to push forward and create the overloads that are invariably our undoing.

The reaction to Chelsea’s second half resurgence shouldn’t have been a change to three central defenders; but to inject fresher legs and more pace into midfield. Or fresh ideas in attack. I can just about accept the case for Tomas Soucek when his role is predominantly as an auxiliary central defender. But once Max Kilman was introduced, he should have been replaced by Freddie Potts or Soungoutou Magassa. His alarming lack of pace simply no longer works as a more advanced midfielder.

Once the twin striker formation was jettisoned, the very foundation of first half success – creating space for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville to exploit – disappeared. The approach was doomed to failure. If a change upfront was needed, then a straight swap of Callum Wilson for Pablo would have been my preference. Continue to ask questions of the Chelsea defence, not give them the rest of the evening off.

By the end of the game, Nuno had removed all three of Pablo, Taty and Bowen to provide fans with a first glimpse of muscle-bound serial underachiever Adama Traore. We can’t say he didn’t make an impact as it was his petty confrontation with Cucurella which sparked the melee leading to Jean-Clair Todibo’s red card. I’m not saying that the eternally irritating Cucurella doesn’t deserve all the grief that comes his way, but this did not work out well for West Ham. Todibo’s absence through suspension will be critical considering who his likely replacement is likley to be.

It is difficult to know where to start with West Ham’s defending. There has been improvement at set pieces but goals against remains the highest in the league. The latest Achilles heel is the cross to the far post where central strikers are isolating aerially challenged full backs. The first two Chelsea goals both coming via this route – as had the goals conceded to QPR, Tottenham and Sunderland.

***

All eyes today will be on the slamming shut of the transfer window. The vague messages intentionally leaked from the club are that they are working hard on new signings – with the caveat that it is always a difficult environment in January. Of course, leaving your most important business to the very last moment will always be difficult – if not downright negligent.

The centre back situation is farcical given how critical it has been all season. It is now perfectly setup for the typical West Ham showdown featuring a Sullivan special foisted onto the latest reluctant manager. A no-nonsense centre back and attack minded midfielder would be an acceptable final day’s work for me, but I am fully prepared for disappointment.

Once the dust has settled and the transfer curtains finally drawn until the summer, we have only the uphill struggle to survival to concerns us. Throwing away leads and shipping an average two goals per game is not a habit that can lead to safety. The challenge starts with a massive must-win if we are to have any hope game at Burnley next Saturday. The best hope for winning the game may rely on Paco being able to lock Nuno in the Turf Moor broom cupboard while he delivers the half time pep talk. COYI!