August 2025 – Under The Hammers

Cautionary Tales: Is Competitive a Synonym for Dull?

Nothing seen in pre-season suggests that a change of style for Graham Potter’s West Ham in 2025/26 is on the cards. In fact, we should expect an even more extreme version as he sweeps away the final vestiges of Lopetegui’s chaos to bed down his custom brand of cautious possession football. It’s unlikely to be exciting, rip-roaring stuff!

Although Potter’s style is very different from that of David Moyes, their underlying philosophy to minimise any risk is common ground. Neither embraces adventure or seeks to produce a team capable of taking a game by the scruff of the neck and pressing home their dominance.

Where Moyes prioritised deep defence and counterattacks to frustrate opponents, Potter does the same by maintaining possession in safe areas of the pitch, reluctant to enter the attacking third or committing bodies into the box. His rationale – repeated endlessly in last season’s press conferences – was to remain competitive in each game, even though so many were ultimately lost.

For those of a nostalgic disposition, remaining competitive might be seen as the antithesis of the elusive West Ham way, an approach best summed up by getting mullered 8-2 at home by Blackburn Rovers on Boxing Day 1963 only to win the return fixture 3-1 two days later.

A Goal Famine at Both Ends

The respective records of Lopetegui and Potter last season were roughly equivalent when it came to points per game (1.15 to 1.11) and goals scored (1.21 to 1.22). The significant difference was a reduction in goals conceded under Potter from 1.63 to 1.28 per game. Benchmarking these against the averages for Potter’s three seasons at Brighton and we see 1.16 points per game, 1.06 goals scored, and 1.26 goals conceded. Largely consistent except that the goal scoring exploits at West Ham look extravagent in comparison.

In his 18 Premier League at West Ham, there were five draws while nine of the other games were settled by a single goal (two wins, seven defeats). In the four games with a two-goal winning margin, the Hammers won three and lost one. It can certainly be argued that close games maintain interest until the end, but it is always goals which create the greatest excitement and interest for fans.

My prediction for the season is 47 goals scored and 52 conceded.

The Perils of Playing Out from the Back

I’m no fan of playing out from the back as the go-to tactic for every occasion. Apart from the very best drilled teams who have skilful players in every position with great movement and superior powers of recovery, it is a suicidal play. For the majority of teams there are far more drawbacks than advantages.

No doubt Mads Hermansen will perform better than Alphonse Areola who looks like a rabbit caught in the headlights with the ball at his feet. But please use it when appropriate, not by prescription. Even if the keeper manages not to mess up, can we trust our defenders and leaden footed midfielders to succeed in breaking through an opposition press? The more likely outcome is a sequence of sideways and backward passes before the ball is played back to the keeper again.

I predict at least four or five opposition goals arising directly from attempts at this flawed manoeuvre.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

There is no danger of anyone repeating last summer’s claim that West Ham had won the transfer window. The recruitment of Hermansen and El Hadji Malick Diouf are certainly positive – plus there was the contractual obligation to buy Jean-Clair Todibo – but otherwise it has been the largely underwhelming collection of squad fillers to replace the squad fillers that were let go.

At time of writing, the number one priority of many supporters to inject pace, power, youth, and creativity into the midfield has been stubbornly ignored. The straw to clutch at is that the window remains open for two more weeks. Still time for a wantaway star or a player issuing a come-and-get-me plea to make his way to the London Stadium.

If the midfield can be sorted out, I would have far greater optimism for the season. Unfortunately, past performance suggests the club will ultimately fail to act decisively. The remaining time will be wasted flitting from target to target like a butterfly; deals will prove impossible to conclude beyond the haggling stage; and a couple of free transfers will be recruited without fixing the original problem.

In such a scenario, I see us losing more games than we win with a smattering of draws thrown in. My prediction: Win 12; Draw 10; Lose 16.

Where Will We Finish?

The most positive thing I can say about the upcoming season is that I don’t believe West Ham will be relegated. There will be times when we are too close for comfort but there will be three or more (even) worse teams destined to fight it out for the drop. A total of 46 points or so would be enough to finish between 13^th and 15^th. It is difficult to see better than that.

In fact, I would say that the current Potter style of play places a relatively low ceiling on what can be achieved. A cautious 3-5-2 formation with a preference to keep everything tight and condensed in midfield is textbook mid-table football.

Ironically, if done well, the low block/ rapid counterattack football preferred by Moyes is more exciting and provides greater possibilities – as witnessed by West Ham’s purple path in 2020/21 and Nottingham Forest for much of last season. But as we know, done badly it is as tedious as hell.

The AFCON Conundrum

The uncertainty in any season is losing players for extended periods due to injury. West Ham are exposed to this in key areas, especially in attack where keeping Jarrod Bowen and Niclas Fulkrug fit is paramount.

Other absences are known and must be planned for such as the 2025 African Cup of Nations (AFCON) which will is scheduled over the Christmas/ New Year period. West Ham will likely be without Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Diouf, Nayef Aguerd (and Max Cornet) for all or part of the tournament. Games affected will be home to Fulham, Brighton and Forest, and away to Man City, Wolves and Tottenham. Plus, the FA Cup Third Round.

Many other Premier League sides will similarly be impacted by AFCON. West Ham should have the cover to muddle through provided the tournament does not coincide with an injury crisis.

Anyone For a Cup Run

A cup run is an opportunity to boost team and supporter morale when things are otherwise floundering in the league. West Ham’s recent experience is to notch up a few decent victories before being drawn away for a routine defeat at Liverpool or Manchester City.

Cup draws are rarely kind to the Hammers and last nights for the second round of the Carabao Cup was no exception. There were many more favourable outcomes than an away trip to Wolverhampton.

Once again, I don’t see Potterball as suited to cup football success. A look at his Brighton record shows exits as follows: 3^rd Round – twice; 4^th Round – three times; 5^th Round – once.

Predicted exits for West Ham this season: League Cup – 2^nd Round; FA Cup – 5^th Round

HOTY

This is an easy one. Diouf to win Hammer of the Year. A standout season for the left wing back especially once his colleagues realise that playing the ball into the space in front of him is the way to go. Whether there will be anyone in the box to get on the end of his tantalizing crosses is another matter. The end of the season will no doubt raise questions of buy-out clauses and moves to bigger clubs. Expect to enjoy him for two seasons maximum.

Top Scorer

Little to chose from here with no player entering the conversation for the Golden Boot. A 13 goal haul for Bowen would allow him to eclipse Michail Antonio’s record as the clubs leading Premier League goal scorer. Fulkrug weighing in with ten and Callum Wilson one.

Young Players

Many of the more energetic moments in the Premier League summer series came when the academy players were introduced as late substitutes. Their improvised exuberance likely giving the coach palpitations.

Freddie Potts was given the most minutes and will be a candidate for a start on Saturday. He looks to be a tidy player, but I wonder if there is enough to his game in terms of passing range and movement. I would love to see more of Luis Guilherme, but wingers are superfluous in the coach’s preferred system.

Others in with a shout to ipress are George Earthy, Callum Marshall, Ollie Scales, Lewis Orford, Preston Fearon and the mysterious Mohammadou Kanté. Fearon and Orford in particular showed a sense of purpose and adventure during their US cameos that is rarely seen from the club’s senior midfield players.

Of the group, Potts, Scarles, Guilherme and Earthy will be matchday regulars – but mainly from the bench as the coach persists with JWP and Tomas Soucek.

Pre-season preparations have changed significantly over the years. What were once low-key trips down the road to Oxford or Southend have been repurposed into fully fledged televised tournament extravaganzas. Hosted in any far-flung corner of the planet prepared to stump up enough cash for Premier League clubs to play exhibition games.

The idea of a Premier League Summer Series seemed to have all the appeal of the low budget seaside specials – starring Vince Hill, Mike and Bernie Winters and the dancers of the Young Generation – that dominated holiday TV schedules many years ago. In the event it wasn’t so bad. Fans were able to watch a handful of nearly competitive games blissfully free from VAR interference. The clubs banked a bounty of PSR boosting pre-season revenue. And the organisers happily settled for the desired outcome of a Manchester United victory.

It was obvious from the outset that the Red Devils were the big draw here. An opportunity to celebrate the latest in an ongoing series of corners turned since the retirement of Sir Alex in 2013. The remaining three clubs duly obliged by playing the role of the Washington Generals to Manchester United’s Harlem Globetrotters.

The wider context here, however, is the increasing interest and involvement in the business of Premier League football by US investors, with more than half of this season’s top flight clubs having American owners. Just short of the majority needed to enforce rule changes should their financial interests align. How long before regular Premier League games are actually staged in North America?

With the advent of live TV coverage comes the pressure on pundits to analyse what we have seen. So, what can be read into performances and what does it mean for the upcoming season? In truth, nothing we didn’t already know as far as the style and approach of Potterball are concerned. The major conundrum is whether the squad will have more and better options to accomplish it by the time the transfer window closes (slams shut, surely) on 1 September. The promised squad overhaul has seen plenty of departures but just the one significant addition at time of writing. It is a situation that would suggest another year of lower table struggle is on the cards.

Graham Potter is now fully committed to a preferred 3-5-2 formation. That one significant signing of the summer (El Hadji Malick Diouf) underlines the desire for attacking width to be provided by the wing backs. The club is now well placed in this area with Kyle Walker-Peters and Ollie Scarles as backup.

The middle three of the midfield five is less clear cut. There are plenty of names to throw in here from the current payroll: Edson Alvarez, Tomas Soucek, Guido Rodriguez, JWP, Lucas Paqueta, Andy Irving and Freddie Potts for a start. Plus, a coiple of youth players waiting in the wings. But how to get the right attacking and defensive balance from that group of (at best) tidy rather than explosive players. Potter’s caution is likely to favour a double pivot and one attacking midfielder rather than a more adventurous one defensive and two box-to-box midfielders. The obvious gaps in pace, power and someone with the ability to carry the ball forward from the middle of the park have yet to be addressed.

Another puzzle is whether there is a role in the system for wide attacking players such as Crysencio Summerville and Luis Guilherme? Both are quick, direct players which may be at odds with Potter’s pass, probe, possession, patience preference which contributed to the poor goal attempts statistics in the second half of last season. The limited game time for Guilherme in pre-season is probably telling – a shame for a player who reminds me of a Brazilian Alan Devonshire.

The primary innovation from pre-season has been the way the front two have operated. Niclas Fulkrug regularly dropping deep to receive the ball from central defenders with Jarrod Bowen deployed in a much narrower role than we are used to seeing him. Fulkrug has looked sharp and keeping him fit may be essential to West Ham’s attacking intent. The wisdom of bringing Bowen in from wide left remains to be seen given how effective he has proven from that position in the past.

Pre-season indications are that Potter’s preferred combination in central defence will be Nayef Aguerd, Max Kilman and Jean-Clair Todibo. It is a surprise rehabilitation for Aguerd who appeared to have had one foot out the exit door at the start of the summer. His pace and passing may serve him well on the left-hand side of a three but doubts remain over the physical aspects of his game. He also offers more of a threat in the opposition box at set pieces than his defensive colleagues. Kilman and Todibo are both good passers of the ball but each have their own defensive frailties. Kilman a tendency to spectate when he should be putting his body on the line. Todibo never looking to have the stamina to last beyond the hour mark.

Recruitment of a goalkeeper is the current hot topic on the transfer grapevine. The release of Lukasz Fabianski and a handful of recent errors by Alphone Areola have made this a priority position. Areola’s clear discomfort with using his feet and playing out from the back look to have shattered his fragile confidence. I need a lot of convincing that this tactic is anything other than suicidal. Perhaps teams with ball players in every position and possessed with fluid movement can carry it off but the Hammers are a long way off that level. It is a play that is fine to use when appropriate to do so but it is a liability once the opposition have cottoned on.

As ever with West Ham recruitment, there is the usual conflict between the players identified by the coach/ recruitment team and the deals that the Chairman is prepared to get done. The suspicion that only players with the right agent ever get signed never goes away. It is debateable whether any of the summer signings to date have come from the Potter/ Macaulay wish list. With all the misinformation circulating on transfer sites and the smoke and mirrors that PSR compliance generates, we really have little clue as to what is going on.

A new season should always be a time of excitement. For me, it has become a little less so with each passing year as professional football incrementally moves away from its community roots towards corporate ownership. The game has taken itself into an endless doom spiral. Each year, maximising revenues is pursued at the expense of loyal support to keep pace with the rising squad costs required for success or survival. It is a problem for everyone but even more apparent at West Ham, a club which has never made any attempt to plan beyond the here and now.

To end on a more upbeat note. There have been a few positives during the summer. The squad have looked to be in good spirits, the weight of a lifetime ban has finally been lifted from Paqueta’s shoulders and there were encouraging performances from academy products during the pre-season games. Potter would do his standing with the club’s support a great deal of good by putting more trust in youth and giving them the opportunity to develop as the season progresses. We can but hope. COYI!