Statistics would suggest that West Ham’s visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium won’t end in a draw.

London derbies; just like London buses you wait a while for one and then two come along together. We are the last game on Sunday afternoon on Sky at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after being the early kick off last Saturday at home to Chelsea.

After an awful first 25 minutes when we conceded a goal, and Chelsea could have been out of sight, we got better as the game went on and perhaps deserved a draw following Emerson’s equaliser against his former club.

In our five 2023 Premier League games we have beaten Everton 2-0, lost by the solitary goal against Wolves, and drawn against Leeds, Newcastle and Chelsea in addition to two FA Cup wins. That’s an improvement in results and to some extent performance too, but we still sit just two points above the relegation zone, and remain in trouble. We really need some wins and the three points that come with them to start to climb the table.

In previous articles I have been analysing the position and current form of the bottom teams and update the current situation below. The points of the bottom nine (all with 16 games still to play) are:

Palace 25, Leicester 24, Forest 24, Wolves 23, West Ham 20, Leeds 19, Everton 18, Bournemouth 18, Southampton 15.

The current form looking at points gained in the last 5 games:

Forest 10, Wolves 10, Leicester 7, West Ham 6, Everton 3, Palace 3, Southampton 3, Leeds 2, Bournemouth 2.

It won’t be easy to pick up three points in this game. In our last ten games against Tottenham our opponents have won half of them whereas we have claimed victory just twice.

Paqueta is definitely out and Scamacca is also unlikely to be involved. Aguerd faces a late test; I really hope he is fit as he has looked good and is very important to our defence. Coufal, Emerson and Soucek had reasonable games against Chelsea and will all probably play as Moyes continues with three at the back (but who will the three be?). Antonio has a good goal scoring record in this fixture.

Unusually for me I’ll predict the lineup for the game: Fabianski; Kehrer, Ogbonna, Aguerd (or Cresswell if he doesn’t make it); Coufal, Rice, Soucek, Emerson; Bowen, Antonio, Benrahma. 

Statistically it would seem unlikely that the fixture will end in a draw as the reverse one did in the game in August when Soucek’s second half equaliser cancelled out Kehrer’s own goal in the opening period.  It is 38 years since the two teams drew both league games in the same season, and additionally Tottenham have now played 21 consecutive home games without a draw. My prediction will defy the statistics as I’ll go for a 2-2 draw. What are the chances?

4 thoughts on “Statistics would suggest that West Ham’s visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium won’t end in a draw.”

  1. Richard, a third draw on the bounce wouldn’t be the worst result in history, but it won’t help much in getting us out of the mire. I watched Spurs v Arsenal a week or two back, and it was like watching a different sport! The pace was so much faster and the passing so much sharper and more accurate it made me realise just how slow we have become in getting the ball forward, unless we resort to the “ long ball and chase” tactics favoured by the dinosaur. Crippled by constant injuries ( that always take longer to fix than predicted), we desperately need pace and energy in midfield and up front. Danny ‘ Pensioner’ Ings doesn’t seem like a long term answer, but let’s hope he might be a short – term one.
    Thinking ahead to whenDeclan leaves us, Aguerd will make a fine skipper,if he can stay fit, and his countryman Amrabat( ?) a fine replacement. His performances in the Worl Cup reminded me of no one more than Rice himself. What do you think?


    1. Hi Mike
      Agree with a lot of your comments.
      Yes we are slow at getting the ball forward.
      Yes for many years now (for whatever reason) our injury problems seem to be much worse than other clubs.
      Ings is a fine natural goal scorer if given the right service. But that’s my problem with the team. We never seem to play to the strengths of our number 9s (Haller, Scamacca etc).
      Aguerd is an excellent defender – I really like him. Amrabat was one of the stars of the World Cup but would he want to come here? I’d like to see him plus one or two of the other Moroccans (especially defenders) who looked really good with a lot of pace too.
      We lack pace generally.


      1. Yes, pace has always been important at this level but seems more so now than ever. In fact a couple of teams seem to have bought players almost entirely on the basis of their speed. It’s something we seem to ignore when recruiting and as a result we not only have the oldest and least fit squad in the Premiership, but probably the slowest. Results today have gone entirely against us and defeat tomorrow could leave us in the bottom three , if not stone bottom.Who would have thought it at the start of the season. Thanks David.


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