April 2017 – Page 3 – Under The Hammers

The Lawro Challenge – Week 33

The heat is on Lawro as his lead at the top of the Predictor Challenge is cut to 11 points.

Lawro Crystal Ball Week 32 of the Lawro Challenge saw the gap at the top of the leaderboard cut to 11 points as Rich scored a creditable 8 points compared with Lawro’s meagre 5 points. For a change Geoff split the two pacesetters weighing in with 6 points.

Still plenty to play for and with teams either battling for European slots, to avoid relegation or simply ticking off the days until they start their Mediterranean the results could even more unpredictable than before. Still plenty of time for Rich to put further pressure on Lawro while Geoff checks out the cost of 10 day all-inclusive breaks in Torremolinos

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 33.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 31 weeks	242	190	256
Score in week 32	8	6	5
Total after 32 weeks	250	196	261

Predictions – Week 33
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Tottenham v Bournemouth	2-0	3-1	3-0
Palace v Leicester	1-0	1-1	2-1
Everton v Burnley	3-1	2-0	2-0
Stoke v Hull	1-1	1-0	2-0
Sunderland v West Ham	0-2	1-1	2-1
Watford v Swansea	1-2	2-0	2-1
Southampton v Man City	2-2	1-2	0-2
Sunday
West Brom v Liverpool	1-2	2-2	0-2
Man Utd v Chelsea	1-2	0-0	0-2
Monday
Middlesbrough v Arsenal	0-1	0-2	0-2

Midweek Miscellany

A ramble through the West Ham undergrowth of narrow wins, manager appointments, owners and transfer speculation.

Six Games To Go

Following the win at home to Swansea last weekend there was a clear sense of relief around the club at having stemmed the run of consecutive defeats and opened an eight point gap between ourselves and third bottom, Swansea. There was a spring back in the step, all was well with the world again, super Slav had saved his job and relegation was someone else’s problem.

History goes some way to support this theory. Since the Premier League was reduced to a 38 match season only once has a club with 36 points or more after 32 games played gone on to be relegated. This happened in our last relegation season (2010/11) when Birmingham City sat comfortably in 14^th place with 38 points at the same stage of the season, but contrived to accumulate only one further point from their remaining six games. So it is a case of beware, relegation could still be the villain you think has been killed in the movie finale but who turns out to be not quite dead yet.

A Win and the Manager

The game against Swansea was the Hammers sixth league home win of the season, of which, five have been 1-0 wins. Unlike a number of the earlier wins at least we were the better team on this occasion even if the result owed more to Swansea’s ineffectiveness than to our own excellence.

The media reaction to the win with regard to the manager’s position has been two-fold. By and large, the pundits have been coming out to offer their support; smashing bloke, lots of passion, deserves to be given more time/ another transfer window etc, etc. At the same time, however, there has been an ever increasing list of potential replacements banded about; Mancini, Benitez, Hughton, Wagner, Stam, Monk, Carvalhal, Jokanovic and more to come I expect. Players, as they always do, are publicly right behind the manager – right up until they subsequently support the new manager. This one will clearly run and run and I guess only the Board have any real idea of what is likely to happen.

The Owners

I have seen West Ham described this week as still being a ‘work in progress’ but it is impossible to see from my viewpoint what plan or strategy there is in building a team; apart from assembling a Slow Motion XI there appears no to be no clear objectives . Like the old joke about an Irishman giving directions, if you were ask “How do I get to have a great football team?” a quite reasonable reply would be “Well sir, I wouldn’t start from here!”

Modern football is all about the money. In the money game our closest Premier League peers are Everton and Southampton with Tottenham the target to aim for if there is truly next level to be had out there somewhere. As things stand we are some distance away from each of these teams both on and off the pitch. Along with Newcastle we are quite probably the most accident prone and underachieving teams in English football. Newcastle are proof that a big stadium is not a passport to success. In truth this is not a new problem and amateurish muddling along has been as much part of the West Ham way as flamboyant football.

There has been some speculation this week that Messrs Gold and Sullivan might be looking for outside investment by selling part of their stake in the club. I have no idea how much salt we should attribute to these particular stories but if the intention is to seek investment without giving up control then any changes will be marginal. Although, I believe that the current board can ultimately provide at least some greater stability only a Manchester City or Chelsea style sale can bring viable talk of next levels.

Transfers

Despite the season having six weeks to run, transfer speculation is picking up apace. Even though I know that most rumours are there to fill up column inches or to attract click-throughs I can’t help myself getting irritated at the number of old players being linked with a move to West Ham. A team doesn’t build for the future with 30+ year olds even if there is the occasional success story out there. Sure, there are some very good players out there over 30 but it remains an extremely short-sighted strategy. Let it not be true.

West Ham 1 Swansea 0

They think it’s all over …… not yet it’s not!

Kouyate As the final seconds of extra time in the 1966 World Cup Final ticked away, and Geoff Hurst ran towards the West German goal, Kenneth Wolstenholme uttered the immortal line, “Some people are on the pitch …. They think it’s all over …. It is now”. The final three words came as Geoff’s left footed blast hit the back of the net, and England were the world champions, defeating the Germans 4-2, and sparking wild celebrations on the pitch, at the ground, and throughout England.

As the final whistle blew last Saturday, you could have been excused for thinking that West Ham had just won a major trophy. The relief on the faces of the players, the manager, and the fans was palpable. It was a very important victory, and potentially a season-defining one, achieved in front of a magnificent atmosphere in the stadium. It opened up a gap of 8 points above the relegation zone third team, who are Swansea themselves. Defeat would have reduced this to being just three points ahead of Hull, who would have been in the final relegation slot with a Swansea win. Eight points is a lot to make up with just six games of the season to go, but not an impossible one.

A quick look at the fixture list reveals that the teams below us all have winnable games left, and at the time it seemed that Palace, like ourselves, had potentially the toughest fixtures on paper in the games still to be played. But that was blown out of the water to an extent with the comprehensive Eagles 3-0 win over a stuttering Arsenal team. Stuttering that is, except for when they played us!

On the other hand, our optimistic fans are looking upwards, and our tally of 36 points in 14^th position is just one point shy of Watford, who are in 9^th place just one point above us. So a top-half finish is very much within our grasp with a good run before the end of the campaign, hopefully beginning with a victory at Sunderland this weekend, who themselves look pretty much doomed, and trail a safety position by 10 points.

I believe a win in this game, whilst not making us mathematically safe yet, would just about ensure that next season we are again in the Premier League. But these are the types of games where we can come unstuck. And if that is the case, and if the results of the teams below us are positive ones, then there will still be plenty to play for.

There is a mythical figure of 40 points that all teams strive to achieve as soon as possible every season, believing that they will be safe, but this is not always the case, as we found out to our cost in 2002-2003 under Glenn Roeder. This season it will probably be OK though, as it is doubtful that both Swansea will achieve 12 points, and Hull 10 points, in their six remaining games. But both have at least four “winnable” fixtures left, and the fat lady is not singing yet, although she is probably going through her vocal exercises in preparation. A win over the Mackems will leave us just one shy of the mythical 40, and with a significantly superior goal difference (at the moment!) over Hull and Swansea, 39 could turn out to be the important figure.

Of course, we may have enough points in the bag already. Many fans around me were saying that, after the win over the Swans, that is it, we are now safe. I read today (I don’t know how true it is) that Messrs. Sullivan and Gold are now looking for potential wealthy investors to buy into the club, to take us to the next level, believing that Premier League football is secure now.

It probably is, but with West Ham you can never be sure. Our current “safe” position is not irreversible, and there are still balls to be kicked before the season’s end. So to those of you who think that it is all over, I urge a note of caution, not yet it’s not! But hopefully, it soon will be, and with a few wins in the remaining games we can end up in the top half of the table, a position that didn’t look likely earlier in the season.

This Week in Hammer’s History

Billy Bonds claret and blue army and dreaming of a Frank Lampard goal in the week 10 to 16 April in Hammer’s History.

This Week Hammers History There have been a number of memorable games played during the week 10 to 16 April in Hammer’s History including two that have already featured in Richard Bennett’s Favourite Games articles on this site. These are the 6-1 league win over West Bromwich Albion over Easter in 1965 and the second leg European Cup Winner’s Cup tie against Eintracht Frankfurt in 1976.

The game against Albion is best remembered for the remarkable scoring feat by Brian Dear who notched what would now be a season’s worth of West Ham striker goals in a mere 20 minute spell. Dear’s scoring exploits either side of half time remains the quickest ever five goals in the English game, despite recent claims of having equalled the record by Sergio Aguero.

The game against Eintracht Frankfurt frequently appears on the list of favourite Boleyn nights for many of the longer in the tooth Hammer’s supporters. Trailing 2-1 from the first leg there was an electric atmosphere at the old ground for the return as a masterclass by Trevor Brooking saw West Ham grab a 3-0 lead at a wet and muddy Upton Park. True to form the Hammers conceded a late goal to set up an edgy finale but they held on to book a place in the final. A superb performance from what, at the time, was a very ordinary West Ham side outside of Brooking and Billy Bonds.

Day, Coleman, Lampard, Bonds, Taylor, McDowell, Holland, Paddon, Jennings, Brooking, Robson

Bonzo had been elevated to the position of West Ham manager in 1991 when another semi-final encounter took place that was memorable for very different reasons. This time it was an FA Cup tie that pitched second division West Ham against first division Nottingham Forest. The game was evenly matched until Keith Hacket made the worst refereeing decision of all time by issuing a straight red to Tony Gale for an innocuous challenge on Forest’s Gary Crosby. It was Gale’s solitary sending off in a career spanning some 700 games. Crosby went on to score the first of Forest’s four goals that day but it was the West Ham crowd that lingers longest in the memory for the marathon rendition of ‘Billy Bond’s Claret & Blue Army’ right through to the final whistle at Villa Park.

Miklosko, Potts, Parris, Gale, Foster, Hughton, Bishop, Slater, Allen (Stewart), Keen, Morley (Quinn)

Villa Park had also been the venue just over a decade earlier when West Ham faced Everton in the 1980 FA Cup semi-final; another second versus first division clash. It was the Merseysiders who took the lead with a Brian Kidd penalty awarded for a push by Alan Devonshire. Dev subsequently man-handled referee Colin Seel but escaped with a yellow card. Everton then had Kidd sent off for a spot of ‘handbags’ involving Ray Stewart and the Hammers, with Bonds at his swashbuckling best, used the extra man advantage to good effect as Stuart Pearson converted Brooking’s cross to bring the scores level. There was still time for more drama as a Paul Allen would-be winner was ruled out for a debatable offside.

Parkes, Stewart, Brush, Bonds, Martin, Devonshire, Allen, Pearson (Pike), Cross, Brooking, Holland

It was a long journey up to Elland Road a few days later for the midweek replay. A evenly fought game was goalless after 90 minutes and into extra time it went. West Ham took the lead in the first period of added 15 minutes through an excellent Alan Devonshire goal after a smart one-two with Stuart Pearson. The lead lasted until seven minutes from the end when Bob Latchford looked to have broken Hammer;s hearts as he headed in at the near post to equalise. With the minutes ticking away and a further replay looming a Brooking cross was nodded on by David Cross and there was Frank Lampard to guide a header over the line for the winner; I still get goose-bumps watching videos of this game. The mystery as to why full-back Lampard, recalled to the team due to an Alvin Martin illness, was still lingering in the area plus his celebratory corner flag jig would become part of West Ham folklore and spawned the ‘I’m dreaming of a Frank Lampard goal, just like the one at Elland Road’ chant.

Parkes, Lampard, Brush, Bonds, Stewart, Devonshire, Allen, Pearson, Cross, Brooking, Pike

Notable Birthdays

12 April Bobby Moore d. 1993
13 April Alan Devonshire (61)
15 April Edmilson Fernandes (21)

5 Relieving Lessons from a Welcome Win against Swansea

A win is a win as West Ham insert some daylight between themselves and the Premier League trapdoor.

A Win and Three Points

In context of ending a run of five consecutive defeats and putting a little distance back between ourselves and the Premier League trapdoor it was a ‘fantastic win’! There are never any circumstances where I want to see West Ham lose a game even if the consequences were Tottenham winning the title or Millwall avoiding relegation. Even though I don’t believe the manager has anything to offer in taking the club forward, losing Premier League status would be a stupid price to pay for being proved right. At least Slaven Bilic acknowledged that the current predicament was the fault of the management and players and there was, for once, a general and welcome display of effort, even if it was short on quality. The celebration at the end was over the top in the circumstances but it was an enormous relief.

The Greater of Two Strugglers

As a spectacle in what is meant to be the world’s elite football league it was an extremely poor game. Both teams were disappointing and West Ham got their victory because they were the least worse of the two sides. Captain Mark Noble was quoted as saying that the win was the “biggest in a few years” which seems somewhat of an exaggeration despite the pressure release of this laboured victory. Noble added “it was not pretty but the only thing that matters was the three points. There’s no point in us playing like Real Madrid and losing 2-0.” Mark, there is no chance of us playing like Real Madrid; otherwise his comment bore all the markings of a classic ear-cupping Fat Sam-esque statement, for which he (the Fat One) would have been justifiably slaughtered.

A Goal To Win Any Game (even a poor one)

Paradoxically a disappointing game was won by a super goal from Cheikou Kouyate. Even the build-up had shades of Barcelona (rather than Real Madrid!) but the strike from Kouyate was majestic, sublime and sumptuous (© Sky Sports) all rolled into one. I am a big Kouyate fan due to the power and athleticism that he brings to the team but recognise that he has his shortcomings that prevent him being the target of bigger teams; for example, poor final passes and long range shots. Yesterday we witnessed something that may never be repeated but was, at least, worthy of winning a game. The goal also credited Robert Snodgrass with his first contribution in a West Ham shirt as he enters the record books with an assist. I still regard the ‘assist’ as totally subjective but I would grudgingly award him half an assist for his neat pass. Apart from the goal there were two occasions where Andre Ayew could have done better in front of goal plus a mesmerising Lanzini step-over where Calleri was unable to play for a lucky deflection and the ball crashed into the side netting.

The Benchmen

Jonathan Calleri must be some player in training in order to keep getting a seat on the bench. With Andy Carroll and Diafra Sakho sitting alongside him even he must have thought he was only there to make up the numbers. Surprisingly he ended up with a personal best ‘minutes on the pitch for a league game’ when replacing Michail Antonio in the closing stages of the first half. Some say Calleri ‘puts in a shift’ or that he is simply lacking confidence but I have yet to see anything that suggests that this is a top level footballer. In other substitutions replacing Snodgrass with Sofiane Feghouli is not too dissimilar a move from replacing Julien Faubert with Pablo Barrera. Something I had hoped we wouldn’t have to see on the next level was this a pile of workmanlike dead-wood that we have once again assembled.

The Rest of the Season

One win doesn’t mean safety. A repeat of the five match losing sequence would put us right back down there with the strugglers and stragglers. On the other hand just one of those twenty points we have lost from winning positions would have put is in the top half, so compressed has the lower mid-table section become. Things could be a little clearer next Saturday where the fixture computer has come up with a set of matches that only die-hard fans of the clubs involved could be interested in. A win at Sunderland would, I believe, make us effectively safe. Of the at-risk clubs (I have written off Sunderland and Middlesbrough who can wave to neighbours Newcastle on the way down) Hull and Swansea have enough winnable home games to survive and it is Palace who have the toughest run in despite their two games in hand. Personally I have no particular preferences other than we can scramble to 40 points before the end of the month and a tricky last few games.

Matchday: Swanning Around in the London Stadium

We are in this together as Taffy comes to our house in the hope of stealing all three points.

West Ham Swansea When West Ham won 4-1 at the Liberty Stadium on Boxing Day it was the final nail in the coffin for the short-lived managerial career of Bob Bradley. It would be one of those not so rare football ironies if the visitors should return the favour this afternoon.

In the aftermath of Bradley’s sacking Swansea appointed relative unknown Paul (I Hear You’ve Been a Naughty Boy) Clement as manager. Following an encouraging start the Swans form has started to dip again recently whereby their current record is only slightly better than our own. What once looked like it might be uninteresting end of season routine has suddenly become a ‘six-point’ showdown between two of the clubs battling to avoid what looks increasingly like the final relegation position.

We wanted to do it before now. I didn’t smell this, I didn’t think we would lose five games. But it is in our hands and that is the best you can ask for. Your destiny is in your hands. We are playing a team we have beaten, a team that is five points below us. We have big belief.

– Slaven Bilic

The Hammers losing streak has now reached five equalling that achieved by Avram Grant’s side in 2010/11 but still short of the record nine consecutive league defeats set in 1932; a run that included a 2-1 reverse against today’s opponents in a season that ended with West Ham’s lowest ever league position – one point and one place away from demotion to the third tier. One record that the Hammers can realistically break this season is to go top of the all-time Premier League defeats table; only a further three defeats are required to overtake the current total of 333 shared by Aston Villa and Everton.

Head to Head

The Head to Head record for this encounter is very much bossed by the Hammers and in 25 home league games we have only lost on two occasions (1956 and 2016). Last season’s victory being a huge disappointment in the last ever Saturday game at the Boleyn Ground; with any luck it will be another 60 years before the next defeat. A win today would give West Ham their first double over Swansea since the 1982/83 season and only the second double of the season (the other being Crystal Palace).

Team News

There are doubts about the fitness of all the West Ham players but only Andy Carroll and Michail Antonio face late fitness tests. Assuming Carroll and Antonio are available, and with Diafra Sakho getting a run out in midweek, we have the appearance of a team carrying a goal threat against the side with the leakiest defence in the league. Much debate about who will get the gloves this afternoon and it would be no surprise to see Senor Adrian return.

We’re in the bottom three and there are seven games to go, and West Ham are a team who have had their own troubles recently, so we have to go there believing we can get a result.

– Paul Clement

Swansea hope to be able to welcome back Fernando Llorente after an ankle injury but may be with out Kyle Naughton who is suffering with a hamstring problem. If Naughton is unavailable, Leroy Fer may be moved to right back which makes it a shame that we have no left sided attacking player. Despite the negativity I am opting for a rousing 3-1 Hammer’s win.

Man in the Middle

Ain’t it good to know we’ve got Kevin Friend officiating today. A relative stranger to our games Friend was in charge of the league game at home to Manchester City several months ago. In 28 games this season he has waved a friendly 109 yellow cards and a mere two red ones.

Defeat at Arsenal; now Home to Swansea

Five consecutive league defeats; now we face an important six-pointer against Swansea.

Ayew versus Swansea

Geoff Hopkins summed up the Arsenal game perfectly in his article Five Cruel Lessons From Defeat @ Arsenal, and I have little to add to that. I have been following our team for almost sixty years and I had a quick look back over that time to ascertain how many times we have lost five league games in a row.

The first time it happened was in 1960-61. Ted Fenton was the manager, but he was sacked after three of the games, and a selection committee of the board were responsible for the next two losses. Ron Greenwood took over for the final four games of the season (none of which were won) and we finished 16^th (out of 22).

It happened twice when Greenwood was in charge. The first time in 1966-67, the season after England’s World Cup win, we lost seven (the most I think!) on the trot at one stage. Again we finished 16^th (out of 22). It occurred again in 1970-71 when we lost five times in a row. That season we finished 20^th (out of 22). We weren’t relegated, as only two teams went down at that time.

John Lyall also managed it twice; although neither of these happened in the two seasons we were relegated with him in charge. In 1976-77 we escaped with a 4-2 victory over Manchester United in the final game, and in 1986-87 we finished 15^th.

Billy Bonds was manager in the ill-fated Bond Scheme season (1991-92) which culminated in us finishing at the foot of the table. We lost six in a row at one stage that season. With Harry Redknapp, and more surprisingly Glenn Roeder in charge we never did manage to lose five league games in a row in any season.

In 2006-07 it happened twice, and we still avoided the drop in the season of the “Great Escape.” Firstly, it happened when Alan Pardew was manager, and he was sacked just a few weeks afterwards. Secondly, we lost five in a row under Alan Curbishley, the fifth one being the heartbreaking 4-3 loss at home to the North London neighbours who we don’t like. But after that game we won seven out of the final nine fixtures to complete a remarkable escape.

In 2009-10 under Gianfranco Zola we lost six league games in a row at one stage, and our likeable (but ineffective) manager departed soon afterwards. And then in the following season the inspirational appointment of Avram Grant by our new owners proved to be anything but, and a run of five consecutive league defeats was followed by his P45 a couple of weeks later.

Just like under Redknapp and Roeder, it didn’t happen under Big Sam, and we had to wait until this current run for it to happen under Slaven Bilic. I dread to contemplate our fate if the run extends to seven to match 1966-67!

We now need to end this losing streak, and hopefully come up with a win against struggling Swansea. After two dreadful home defeats to ourselves (4-1) and Bournemouth (3-0) to finish 2016, our visitors today went on an excellent run to move out of the relegation zone, winning five of their first eight games of 2017, which included away victories at Palace and Liverpool, and home wins over Southampton, Leicester and Burnley. The tide appeared to have turned under new manager Paul Clement, but the last four games have seen them pick up just a solitary point in a goalless home draw with fellow strugglers (and potentially doomed) Middlesbrough.

The games where they went down were 2-1 at Hull, who are having a bit of a revival themselves under a new manager who hasn’t lost at home (for years!), and 2-0 at Bournemouth. And then finally in midweek they looked to have sewn up three valuable points against our disliked aforementioned friends from North London, only for them to concede three heartbreaking goals in the 89^th, 92^nd and 95^th minutes, and as a consequence slip back into the relegation zone. It is unusual (almost unheard of) for me to cheer Tottenham goals but I have to admit that I did on Wednesday night. The late turnaround meant that we go into the game today five points ahead of them (and so the drop zone too), instead of the three points gap that was prematurely quoted on social media by so many of our Twitter followers prior to the final whistle.

One quote that I read today, was that teams who have conceded at least 66 goals after 31 games in a Premier League season have always been relegated. For anyone who wasn’t aware of this (well known!!) statistic, it has happened six times before to Swindon, Barnsley, Fulham, Ipswich and Wolves (twice).

Their top scorer Llorente is likely to return after injury and there could be an Ayew playing for both sides. It would be good to see Jordan Ayew repeat his performance for Villa against us at Upton Park when he, unprovoked, for no apparent reason elbowed Cresswell in full view of everybody and had an early bath (showers these days!). Sigurdsson is an extremely talented player, and one of the few that I have seen us linked with in the past who I would like to see in our side.

The last two fixtures between us have ended 4-1 to the away side. Few can forget how they gave us a drubbing in the penultimate game held at (fortress!) Upton Park, but we repeated that feat ourselves on Boxing Day just over three months ago with goals from Ayew (his first for us), Reid, Antonio and Carroll.

In view of the importance of this game, described as a massive six-pointer, I expect a nervy game, especially in view of the recent form of both sides. I don’t expect a third 4-1 in a row, but hope that we can halt our recent slide down the table and edge the game by the odd goal in three. I anticipate quite an atmosphere, especially if we can score the first goal, and you never know, a win today and at Sunderland next week, and with other results going our way, we could find ourselves back in the top half of the table by next weekend! I’m not sure that’s where we deserve to be, but, as they say, the league table never lies!

And for all West Ham fans, a topical selection in today’s Grand National, Blaklion, who will carry a few of my hard earned pounds!

The Lawro Challenge – Week 32

Everyone’s going for a West Ham win in this week’s ongoing Lawro prediction challenge.

Lawro Crystal Ball In Week 31, Rich and Lawro both scored a respectable 9 points while Geoff once more trailed badly with 6 points. Lawro maintains his lead at the top but there is no room for complacency.

Just a short break between games this week as the season reaches the business end . Can Lawro be caught by the end of the campaign? The fat lady is going through her scales now in readiness for her performance.

In this challenge we award one point for a correct result, and a further two points (making three in total) if the score prediction is spot on.

We now proceed to week 32.

	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Total after 30 weeks	233	184	247
Score in week 31	9	6	9
Total after 31 weeks	242	190	256

Predictions – Week 32
	Rich	Geoff	Lawro
Saturday
Tottenham v Watford	2-0	3-0	2-0
Man City v Hull	2-1	3-0	3-0
Middlesbrough v Burnley	1-1	1-0	0-2
Stoke v Liverpool	1-1	0-2	1-1
West Brom v Southampton	1-1	1-2	2-1
West Ham v Swansea	2-1	3-1	2-1
Bournemouth v Chelsea	1-3	1-2	0-2
Sunday
Sunderland v Man Utd	1-2	1-1	0-2
Everton v Leicester	1-1	2-2	0-2
Monday
Palace v Arsenal	1-2	1-4	1-1

I Wouldn’t Bet On It 37

Last chance saloon? Almost.

Fancy A Bet

When you bet you should be prepared to lose sometimes. When you support West Ham you should be prepared to lose sometimes. Two very similar statements! When you bet on West Ham to win then the same applies.

Despite showing a healthy profit at one stage, our balance is now down to 35 points. Surely we cannot lose six on the trot? Well of course we can, but I’m sticking my neck out and looking for our first win since February 4. This week’s bets are as follows:

20 points on West Ham to beat Swansea at 21/20 (41)
8 points on West Ham to win and both teams to score at 11/4 (30)
2 points on West Ham to win a nervy game 2-1 @17/2 (19)

Potential returns are in brackets. After staking 30 points our balance is now down to our last 5 points. Surely we will end our losing sequence soon, and win a game? Why not today? What are the chances?

The Beginning of the End for Bilic?

Whatever happens in the coming weeks is must be a question of when rather than if Slaven Bilic leaves West Ham this year?

Slaven Bilic

Unless our run of 5 defeats on the run is matched by an equal and equivalent run of victories leading to a top half finish it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where Slaven Bilic is still the manager of West Ham at the start of next season. The immediate question is whether results will be good enough for him to make it to the end of the season.

I believe that a manager’s credentials are often found out in a second season where initial success built on previous foundations becomes several steps backwards once a team reflects entirely the manager’s image. We don’t need to look much further afield than Roeder and Zola for examples of this; now Slaven Bilic is failing this test. Extra time to get it right could be justified if there was a sense of a work in progress creating something for the future but I fear the opposite is true and currently all we have is a short term vision only (though this is not solely the fault of the manager). On the evidence of this season Bilic falls short in many areas including player recruitment, team selection decisions, tactics and fitness levels.

It is interesting that despite the abysmal form and performances for the best part of the season that Bilic continues to ‘enjoy’ a significant level of support from sections of the West Ham fan base, predicated largely on his passion and the fact that he, at least for a while, pulled on the famous claret and blue jersey. Bilic supporters will point an accusing figure at the Owners and/ or the Stadium as the major factors influencing the season’s failures. I have tried to understand these arguments (not that both might not have their faults) but it is difficult to link them directly with poor on-field performances.

Bilic often cites the struggles that other clubs have when moving to a new stadium and frequently mentions Arsenal’s move from Highbury as an example. Yet if you look at Arsenal’s first season at The Emirates (where we became the first away side to win in April of that season) you will see that their record was only marginally impaired picking up 6 points fewer (and one less defeat) than the final year at Highbury (45 points down to 39). I am willing to accept that getting familiar with a new stadium can affect the dynamic of home advantage but it is a stretch to suggest that it is responsible for everything we have seen home and away from West Ham in 2016/17.

Owners are always an easy target when things are not going well and everyone has their own opinion on maintaining tradition versus the commercial reality of the modern game. Part of that reality is that these people own the club and are not simply an easy to replace board of directors. Their responsibility aside from commercial operations is to appoint the right manager and provide him (or her?) with adequate financial backing for transfers and salaries.

Like most I do not know how transfers and player recruitment work at West Ham, although that does not stop plenty of people from making stuff up in order to suit their argument. In an ideal world there would be a scouting network that identifies candidates with particular attributes that can fill a specific role within the style of football played by the club. The manager would select his preferences (or maybe add his own names to the list) and the owners would try to put together a viable deal acceptable to all parties. There is little evidence that it is as structured as this at West Ham with transfers carried out in a chaotic, inconsistent, scatter-gun manner. Such disorderly dealings are more likely to be the recruitment problem than the popular ‘two-bob’, ‘penny-pinching’ jibes thrown around by fans.

For a club of our size we have invested heavily in players but predominantly with a short-term view that has resulted in few sale-able assets; so we rank high in net spend but relatively low in gross spend. I am not aware of many proposed transfers that have fallen down because the manager was not backed by the owners. On the other hand I feel we waste a lot of time publicly chasing unrealistic big-money targets who are never likely to sign for a middle ranking Premier League club.

A bolder and more sophisticated player recruitment policy is needed that focuses on younger talent who will fit into a particular style of playing. If an occasional experienced player is required then that is fine but regularly bringing in players touching 30 and above should not be the norm for a forward thinking club.

Failing that late season miracle it must be a case of when rather than if Bilic leaves the club. Deep down Bilic must know that and has only his pride to motivate him. In my opinion we need to hit the 40 point mark before the end of April and a large part of that is winning on Saturday. What happens if we don’t is problematical. There is no credible number two waiting in the wings and time is too short for a permanent new appointment. Is there a short-term troubleshooter out there anywhere?