Never mind all that nonsense about peace, health and prosperity, it is the springing open of the transfer window that ushers in 2024 with the greatest anticipation. Will the Hammers be up to much over the coming month? Probably not, but here we take a moment to contemplate West Ham’s transfer conundrums past and present.
The Problem With The Squad Is Depth
According to the Transfer Market website West Ham have the 10th most valuable squad in the Premier League – coming in at an estimated EUR 462 million. In addition to the traditional ‘big’ six clubs, the Hammers also fall behind the Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Brighton squads who are valued at EUR 640 million, EUR 638 million, and EUR 488 million respectively. The website bases its market value estimates on age, performance, contract length, position, international caps, and potential. Although some of that may be subjective, it does provide a reasonable indication as to the relative strength of squads we are in immediate competition with.
Considering the best elevens of the four clubs, there is not much between them. But as you drill down, the lack of depth in the West Ham squad becomes apparent. David Moyes has challenged the squad players to step up to fill in for the AFCON absentees, but based on recent performances the cupboard has looked incredibly bare. The reserve players – Ings, Benrahma, Fornals, Kehrer, Cresswell, Johnson – have either not been good enough, or have had insufficient game time, to provide effective backup when called upon. It is fortunate – either through good luck or sensible training methods – that the Hammers have enjoyed a mostly injury free season compared to other sides. Ironically, it was the one long term injury (to Michail Antonio) which forced the manager into the attacking positional changes that have proved the bright spot to the first half of the season.
Transfer Spend and Payroll
Attention during transfer windows is typically focused on net expenditure – transfer fee incomings minus outgoings – but tends to gloss over player salaries which actually makes up a larger slice of the pie. Since the start of the 2012/13 season, West Ham have spent £855 million on transfers and received £390 million from player sales – a net spend of £465 million. During the same period, player salaries have totalled approximately £800 million.
Over the last 13 transfer windows (since the start of the 2017/18 season) the net spend at West Ham has been £342 million which is higher than at Villa (£329 million) and Brighton (- £19 million) but below that of Newcastle (£463 million) whose spending has been inflated over the past four windows by deep Saudi pockets. The evidence of spending against squad value would suggest that West Ham have failed to spend their money wisely.
A comparison of current annual player payrolls has West Ham at £94 million compared to £117 million at Villa, £84 million at Newcastle, and £61 million at Brighton. It should also be noted that the West Ham squad has the highest average age across the four clubs – Fulham are the only older squad in the Premier League.
Transfer Hits And Misses
The West Ham transfer merry-go-round has had its fair share of hits and misses over the years. For services rendered, the modest fees paid for Cresswell, Ogbonna, Antonio, Fabianski, Coufal, and Dawson have each showed a welcome return on investment. Payet and Arnautovic were both exceptional signings who promised much before their claret and blue careers ended in acrimonious circumstances.
Of the players still on the books, the signings of Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus, Ward-Prowse, and Alvarez have either been, or are looking likely to become, great business. We can never know how long any player’s West Ham careers will last but if we have to sell, selling at a handsome profit is to be desired – something that has been a rare occurrence over the years.
The list of transfer flops is long and expensive. In no particular order, my personal list of stinkers – based on huge fees, big wages or generally failing to live up to expectations – are Jarvis, Carroll, Hernandez, Hugill, Anderson, Wilshere, Haller, Ajeti, Vlasic, Cornet and Ings. No transfer is guaranteed to succeed but having finally woken up to need for professional recruitment, lets hope this level of wastefulness is a thing of the past.
Financial Fair Play
We can never be certain whether the FFP card is being used as a reason or an excuse not to spend money. The rules appear to keep changing and, in any case, become obscured by the smoke and mirrors of accounting practices. It was reported that West Ham just about scraped within the UEFA rules for the last financial year. But the position should be eased as result of the summer sale of Declan Rice. While the fee received for Rice should show up in full in this year’s revenue, the transfer fees paid out can be amortised across the length of the incoming players contracts. If my calculations are correct, the charge for last summer’s incoming transfers will be equal to £25 million in the current financial year.
Academy Rewards
The money received from the Rice sale illustrates the value that a club’s academy can deliver. Sadly, the West Ham academy has proved largely unproductive since the golden generation of Ferdinand, Lampard, Cole, Carrick, and Defoe. Since the 2012/13 season, 38 academy graduates have played for the first team at some level, but only six have ever made a Premier League start. Their 242 starts breaks down as Rice 190, Johnson 34, Diagana 6, Ngakia 5, Burke 4, and Oxford 3. It’s a very disappointing record.
Academy teams have performed well over the past few seasons, but success has yet to filter through as first team breakthroughs. While it is tempting to pin the blame on Moyes for his reluctance to trust in youth, the poor return is not new – or unique to West Ham. It has become increasingly difficult for youth players to make it at the top level.
Transfer Priorities
The January window is usually a time for tweaks rather than wholesale changes. It is a time for finding that missing piece of the jigsaw in a bid for glory, or to make desperate buys to stave off relegation. Is there any single signing that could make all the difference to West Ham’s season? A new centre back perhaps to cover for Zouma’s dodgy knees? A free-scoring striker but how would that fit with Bowen and Kudus? Someone more technically gifted than Soucek to partner Alvarez in a double pivot? Where to start?
The Hammers also have an issue with home grown players which limits their ability to offload several of the fringe players who are unlikely to feature regularly in the Premier League. The home grown contingent is at the minimum level and includes Ings, Cresswell, Johnson, Coventry and Anang. If any are sold they would need to be replaced by other British players who are generally priced at a premium..
History shows that West Ham are rarely active in the winter window. Since 2012, only Byram (2016), Snodgrass and Fonte (2017), Hugill (2018), Bowen and Soucek (2020), and Ings (2023) have been January arrivals. Reports of multiple comings and goings should be taken with a pinch of salt. Change is needed but most will surely wait until the summer. But it will not stop a daily dose of transfer speculation for the next four weeks.