#topfour – Under The Hammers

Successive defeats and an injury ravaged squad had seen menacing dark clouds rolling in on West Ham’s top four aspirations. But just as it gets darkest before dawn, those negative thoughts were blown away by a superb, barnstorming victory at Turf Moor on Monday night.

The surprise return of a turbo-charged Michail Antonio, the awakening of Said Benrahma and the re-birth of Manuel Lanzini united to give notice that while many in the media may “have thought it was all over”, it isn’t now! The fat lady can put her feet up for a few more weeks, yet.

More good news was to come last night when this season’s West Ham nemesis, Newcastle United, gratefully returned part of the favour by beating Leicester, 4-2. Both Leicester and Brendan Rodgers have previous with letting good positions slip and their one-time grip on third place is now looking decidedly precarious. Picking up points against Manchester United, Chelsea and Spurs is no certainty.

Games towards the latter stages of the season are notoriously difficult to call, as an increasing number of teams are left with little left to play for. The champions, runner-up and relegation places are to all intents and purposes sealed leaving only Champion’s League qualification and the crumbs of the Europa League up for grabs.

The race for those remaining two top four places is realistically down to Leicester, Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool. Tottenham are sure to be in denial until the last mouthful of lasagne confirms otherwise but it is beyond them to outpoint three of the above. Not to say that the north Londoners couldn’t finish above West Ham, should the Hammers fall away badly, but best not to think about that.

On paper, West Ham and Liverpool have the easiest of the run-ins. Chelsea are difficult to beat but would do exceptionally well not to drop points from games against Manchester City, Arsenal, Leicester and Villa. The re-scheduled Manchester United – Liverpool game could well prove a pivotal moment in a congested programme for the Red Devils. It’s a shame that second place already looks nailed on for them. Hopefully, local rivalry will not allow them to take it easy.

All of this speculative daydreaming would become inconsequential, of course, if the Hammers are unable to keep their end up. As much as we might fancy the run-in, no game is going to be a straightforward. As the tension mounts there will be psychological obstacles as well as the opposition to overcome. With less to lose in terms of expectation, and being considered as rank outsiders, it may hopefully take some of the pressure off. It will still be a huge test of character. Although the ideal would be to win each of the four remaining games, maybe we can get away with one draw.

The first of those four games is arguably the toughest, when Everton visit the London Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Toffees started the season at a blistering pace but have been largely flat and inconsistent ever since. They look like a collection of potentially fine players without any cohesion or spirit. As with Pellegrini’s Hammers, Everton have spent large on players who are big on reputation, but light on attitude or application. The times that I have watched them recently, they have been predictable and short on ideas. Despite this, they are still in with a shout of the Europa League and cannot be dismissed.

As ever, David Moyes has been coy about the state of the injury situation. Not aware of any new knocks being picked up, the key questions pertain to the return to action, or otherwise, of Declan Rice and Angelo Ogbonna. It would be a massive boost to have them both available. The success of Lanzini in defensive midfield on Monday may allow Moyes to exercise greater caution in the timing of Rice’s return.

The dilemma for Moyes is that an opposition midfield of Doucoure, Allan and Gomes will not give the Hammers the same room that they exploited so well at Burnley. Both Newcastle and Chelsea stifled West Ham by denying space for their runners. Although, the Hammer’s attacking dynamic is very different with Antonio back in the picture, Moyes must find the right balance between getting players forward and not being overrun in midfield.

Not in my wildest dreams could I have imagined West Ham being in the mix for the Champion’s League with just four games of the season to go. It’s usually a tense relegation battle or midtable obscurity by now. I’m not quite sure what to expect or how to handle the raised expectations. It seems just as tense as when we are at the bottom and the same hypothetical ‘if-only’ thoughts frequently flash through my mind – if-only we hadn’t thrown away a three goal lead against Arsenal.

All we can ask is that manager and team give it a real go. No-one can complain if they fall short. It’s been a magnificent effort.

My gut feel is a 2-0 home win, but I will wait to see what the psychic octopus predicts before committing.

Another day, another win and the 2021 West Ham juggernaut just kept on rolling with a stylish win over Crystal Palace that was far more convincing than the record books show. For a few days it left the Hammers occupying a Champion’s League spot and starting to attract media attention, much of it focusing on the second coming of the Moyesiah.

In one TV interview, Darren Lewis from the Daily Mirror was asked where he thought West Ham would finish, and replied “definitely top six!” Funnily, I have yet to come across any Hammers fan with such an optimistic view. I’m not claiming scientific sampling on my part, but the consensus tends more towards a 7^th or 8^th place finish. Privately, it is great to be in a position to dream of glory, but deep down is the nagging sensation that the wheels are sure to fall off sooner or later.

In a much more competitive Premier League season than normal, West Ham’s fifteen minutes in the media spotlight has followed similar unfamiliar focus on teams outside the rich six including Leicester, Southampton and Villa. While Leicester have continued to set the pace, Southampton and Villa have faded recently after a string of poor results. The true measure of the Hammer’s credentials and progress will be how they recover if and when they experience a similar downturn.

Although West Ham have only failed to score in three Premier League games this season, they are not really scoring enough goals (and are not clinical enough in taking chances) to be a true threat at the top. Any team that has won over half of it’s matches should boast a better goal difference than the current +6. As we saw in the Palace game, a more ruthless attack might have come away with six or seven.

Top quality strikers are difficult to find, though, and its increasingly looking like this transfer window will draw another blank on that ‘score’. Looking at Moyes time at Everton and he had also struggled to uncover any regular and prolific goal-scorers – Yakubu (15) and Saha (13) were the best league returns during his eleven seasons at Goodison. There were, however, good contributions from all over the pitch, notably from the likes of Cahill and Fellaini. Maybe that is by design and is what he is looking to achieve at West Ham. It might certainly be a more productive strategy than panic buying for the sake of it. It does leave a huge dependency though on Michail Antonio’s fitness – Antonio’s importance to the team is much more than just his goals.

With no new striker on the horizon then, the squad did see one new addition during the week with the arrival of Jesse Lingard, on loan for the remainder of the season. Maybe not anyone’s dream signing but he adds competition for places and extra flexibility in attacking areas. I have seen some odd reactions to the signing online, from outrage over his controversial social media presence to concerns that he would be replacing a favourite player in the starting eleven. As I see it, he strengthens and deepens the squad and whether he is a regular starter or is used mainly from the bench will depend on how well he performs. With almost half a season still to go, there will be times when Lingard is called upon and he is an upgrade on Manuel Lanzini and Andriy Yarmolenko in terms of energy and commitment.

Lingard’s signing was too late to feature in this weekend’s game, but unless any late changes are enforced, David Moyes was never going to change the side that started and performed so excellently at Palace.

Today’s opponents, Liverpool, ended a lean period of results with a win over Tottenham on Thursday night. Reading the reports, it appears the result was either down to the champion’s brilliance or to Tottenham’s abysmally poor showing. Probably somewhere in between. Liverpool may have easily seen off one of the capital’s lesser sides, but it will be much tougher ask against the top team in London.

Much has been made of the Liverpool injury crisis (welcome to our world) which is either down to bad luck or a cumulative consequence of too many high intensity games in the Klopp style. Whichever way, they do go into tomorrow’s game with a severe shortage of central defenders. Hopefully, this is a weakness that Moyes and team are planning and able to exploit.

Despite shortages they may have at the back, the visitors are always dangerous and free-scoring in attack – maintaining their position as the league’s highest scorers. Only the highest levels of concentration and discipline will suffice in keeping chances to a minimum. Much of the Liverpool threat comes through the full-backs, and they have caused embarrassment to West Ham in previous games. Essential that space and supply is closed down and shut off for the duration.

And finally, beware Egyptians falling over in the penalty area. Take note referee Jonathan Moss and VAR pal, Craig Pawson.

The game should prove an intriguing battle. I believe Moyes would be inclined to contain Liverpool and hope to hit them on the break, but too timid an approach might deny the Hammers a rare opportunity to exploit the visitors soft and depleted centre. It is a huge opportunity to reclaim that rightful place in the top four. West Ham to win 2-1. COYI!